Sunday 9/13/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bears have been a terrible bet against the Packers
Stephen Campbell

The Chicago Bears-Green Bay Packers rivalry has been pretty lopsided in recent years which has translated to the betting window.

Chicago is a measly 1-8 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Pack. The Monsters of the Midway specifically haven't put up much of a fight at home against Aaron Rodgers and company, failing to cover the spread in five-straight tilts with the green and gold at Soldier Field.

Oddsmakers initially opened the Pack as 5-point favorites but that's since risen to -6.5. The total is currently sitting at 49 at most books.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Total Talk - Week 1
By Chris David

Welcome back to Total Talk, the eighth season of this weekly piece and one of my favorites to produce each NFL season. What makes it even better is the feedback, both good and bad, that I receive and the relationships I’ve built.

With that being said, let’s have a great season!

Looking Back and Ahead

What’s great about the NFL is that change occurs every season and the same goes for the results.

For total purposes, Green Bay and Philadelphia were the best ‘over’ teams (11-5) in the regular season last year while Buffalo was a sure-fire ‘under’ bet (13-3).

Should we expect the same or do an about face?

NFC - Total (O/U) Records (2014, 2103, 2012, 2011)

NFC East NFC North NFC South NFC West

Dallas Green Bay Carolina Seattle
9-6-1, 9-7, 8-8, 6-10 11-5, 9-7, 8-8, 11-5 8-8, 5-11, 9-7, 10-6 8-8, 6-10, 8-8, 10-6

Philadelphia Detroit New Orleans Arizona
11-5, 9-7, 9-7, 8-7-1 5-11, 8-8, 10-5-1, 10-6 10-6 6-10 10-6 9-7 5-10-1, 8-8, 7-9, 7-8-1

N.Y. Giants Minnesota Atlanta San Francisco
10-6, 7-9, 5-11, 8-7-1 6-10, 12-4, 7-9, 10-6 6-10, 9-7, 5-11, 7-9 5-11, 8-8, 9-6-1, 7-9

Washington Chicago Tampa Bay St. Louis
8-8, 8-8, 9-7, 7-8-1 8-8, 12-4, 9-7, 9-7 5-11, 8-8, 9-7, 10-6 8-8, 9-7, 8-8, 6-9-1


AFC - Total (O/U) Records (2014, 2103, 2012, 2011)

AFC East AFC North AFC South AFC West

New England Pittsburgh Indianapolis Denver
9-7, 9-7, 11-5, 11-5 9-7, 8-8, 7-9, 6-10 9-7, 8-8, 6-10, 7-9 10-6, 11-5, 10-5-1, 9-7

Buffalo Cincinnati Houston Kansas City
3-13, 10-6, 8-8, 11-4-1 6-10, 10-5-1, 6-10, 11-5 8-8, 9-7, 7-9, 6-10 5-11, 7-9, 6-9-1, 4-12

Miami Baltimore Jacksonville San Diego
8-8, 7-8-1, 5-11, 4-11-1 7-9, 8-8, 9-7, 10-6 8-8, 9-7, 7-9, 4-11-1 7-9, 7-9, 10-6, 8-8

N.Y. Jets Cleveland Tennessee Oakland
7-9, 9-7, 7-9, 10-6 5-11, 9-7, 6-10, 5-10-1 6-10, 9-6-1, 9-7, 5-10-1 10-6, 7-8-1, 6-10, 10-6


Looking at the past four seasons above, it’s very rare to see teams produce one-sided results in back-to-back seasons. With that being said, I seriously doubt the Bills are going to produce a 13-3 ‘under’ record again. However, we do have some teams that have certainly leaned one way or another more often than not.

Denver (40-31-1), Green Bay (37-25), Chicago (36-26) have been some of the best ‘over’ clubs the last four seasons and they have a couple things in common. They all have quarterbacks that can sling the rock and they also have questionable defenses.

If you’re looking for clubs with ‘under’ tendencies the last four seasons, Kansas City (41-22-1) and Cleveland (38-25-1) have led the way.

Line Moves

Totals for Week 1 were starting to populate in the middle of April and the market held steady for the summer but there are some moves to note as of Saturday morning.

Kansas City-Houston: 43 to 41
Indianapolis-Buffalo: 48 to 45
Carolina-Jacksonville: 43 ½ to 41
Seattle-St. Louis: 44 to 40 ½
Baltimore-Denver: 53 to 47 ½
Philadelphia to Atlanta: 53 ½ to 56


Divisional Battles

Only three divisional matchups this week and all of them have solid total angles to watch.

Green Bay at Chicago: This series has watched the ‘over’ cash in three straight and the Packers have scored 33, 38 and 55 points during this span while totals have ranged from 51 to 53. This week’s number is a tad lower and we’ll get to find out if the offensive injuries will temper Green Bay’s offense. Nobody is strong on the Bears defense and the unit will be without one of its better players in defensive tackle Jeremiah Ratliff due to suspension.

Seattle at St. Louis: The ‘under’ has been a great lean in this matchup, going 8-2 the last five seasons and these have been fairly easy tickets to cash. One of the ‘over’ tickets did occur last year as the Rams notched a 28-26 win at home. The Rams are beat up at RB and that’s not going to help new quarterback Nick Foles. Even though I don’t believe the Seahawks defense will be as great as past seasons, especially without the absence of Kam Chancellor, I can still see why this number has dropped.

N.Y. Giants at Dallas: Oddsmakers sent out a total of 50 on this game and it’s up to 51 ½ at most shops and will probably close higher since it’s the SNF matchup. Tough to argue the move knowing the ‘over’ has gone 8-2 the last 10 meetings and 5-0 the last five. Dallas has won the last four, averaging 30.5 PPG. Running back DeMarco Murray (121, 128) lit up the Giants last year but he’s no longer on the ‘Boys and it’s yet to be seen who will emerge as the top carrier this season. Neither club boasts a strong defense and that alone could have you leaning to the high side.

Under the Lights

On Thursday, the Patriots-Steelers game fell ‘under’ the closing total of 51 but there were points left off the board and you can see that New England’s offense is still potent at home and the defense is far from great. Also, the same can be said for Pittsburgh.

SNF - N.Y. Giants at Dallas: See Above

For Monday’s action, we have two rookie coaches making their debuts with Dan Quinn leading Atlanta and Jim Tomsula taking over in San Francisco. Fortunately for this pair, they’ll both be home but the oddsmakers have them listed as underdogs.

MNF - Philadelphia at Atlanta: The Eagles have become a very popular ‘over’ bet under head coach Chip Kelly, who clearly is an offensive genius and also somebody that gives two shits about defense. To back my point up further. I put stock into what team’s do on the road and the Birds have gone 10-6 both SU and ATS as visitors under Kelly and they’ve averaged 28.6 PPG. Defensively, they’ve allowed 27.6 PPG and only twice they’ve held teams to under 20 points, which came against the Cowboys and Packers. Make a note that Romo and Rodgers sat out those results, which pushes the true average just under 30 PPG. Atlanta has the talent to score at home but make a note that the last four totals listed at 53 points or higher in the Georgia Dome have all gone ‘under’ the number.

MNF - Minnesota at San Francisco: In head coach Mike Zimmer’s first season in 2014, the Vikings went 6-2 to the ‘under’ on the road and all those results were never in doubt. Offensively, you should see improvement with running back Adrian Peterson back in the fold. A drop-off is expected in San Francisco this season and there are plenty of question marks on both sides of the ball. The 49ers have seen the ‘under’ go 11-5 the past two seasons at home. New head coach Jim Tomsula is a former defensive line coach and the team has a new offensive coordinator, which makes you believe it could take time for the offense to develop.

Fearless Predictions

Handicapping Week 1 of the NFL is never easy and I would certainly tread lightly. This section barely finished in the red last season and something I hope doesn’t occur again. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Giants-Cowboys 51

Best Under: Saints-Cardinals 48 ½

Best Team Total: Under Colts 24

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over 42 Giants-Cowboys
Over 46 ½ Eagles-Falcons
Under 54 Colts-Bills

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gridiron Angles - Week 1
By Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Texans are 13-0-1 ATS (8.8 ppg) since September 28, 2008 when the total is under 43 and they are not 9+ point favorites, when the margin the last time they face this teams was between -13 and +21.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Jaguars are 0-12 ATS (-14.1 ppg) since November 27, 2011 as a home dog of at least two points when the total is under 43.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- Eli Manning is 0-12 OU (-10.6 ppg) since January 22, 2012 on the road when he threw for at least 260 yards in his last meeting against this team.

NFL ATS SYSTEM:

-- Teams in week one at home who won 7 or 8 games (including playoffs) at home last season are 26-38-1 ATS. Active against Arizona and Denver.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:

-- The Browns are 0-10 OU (-10.4 ppg) since October 12, 2014 when the total is under 48.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:

-- The Eagles are 9-0-2 OU (11.1 ppg) since 2008 in the first two weeks of the season when they are not favored by eight points or more.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- None (Active next week)

Trends are verified using Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Week 1 Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers

Packers (-6 ½, 49) at Bears – 1:00 PM EST

The two oldest rivals in the NFL meet up at Soldier Field as Green Bay looks to duplicate last season’s success against Chicago. The Packers outscored the Bears, 93-31 in two blowouts, including a 38-17 rout in Chicago last September. Green Bay split four preseason games, while losing top wide receiver Jordy Nelson to a torn ACL in an exhibition loss at Pittsburgh. Since 2012, the Packers own a 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS record as a road favorite of six points or more, which includes an ATS loss in a three-point win at Minnesota last season.

The Bears won three of four preseason contests, as John Fox debuts as head coach following four seasons with the Broncos. Chicago looks to rebound from a 5-11 season, while covering only once in four tries as a home underdog, coming as a 10-point ‘dog to Detroit in a 20-14 loss in Week 16. Jay Cutler has struggled against this Green Bay defense, losing eight straight starts against the Packers since 2010, with the last win by the Bears’ quarterback versus the defending NFC North champions in Week 3 of that season as a home underdog.

Colts (-2 ½, 45) at Bills – 1:00 PM EST

There are big expectations placed on Indianapolis this season, who are predicted by many to break through to the top of the AFC. The Colts have taken care of business in the road favorite role since Andrew Luck took over at quarterback in 2012, owning a terrific 9-2 SU/ATS record in this situation, including a 4-2 SU/ATS mark last season. Indianapolis’ schedule sets up nicely for a solid start, taking on the Jets, Titans, Jaguars, and Texans before hosting New England in Week 6.

The Bills begin the Rex Ryan era with plenty of question marks under center as former Raven Tyrod Taylor gets the start in the opener. However, Buffalo has been successful the last few seasons when receiving points at Ralph Wilson Stadium, compiling a 6-1 ATS mark as a home underdog since 2013. When Ryan coached the Jets, he was successful in season openers, winning five of six, including a 4-1 record at home. The Bills should get a nice boost in the backfield as LeSean McCoy is expected to play in spite of missing most of the preseason with a groin injury.

Dolphins (-3 ½, 43 ½) at Redskins – 1:00 PM EST

One of the biggest disasters of the preseason was the quarterback controversy in Washington as Robert Griffin III was sacked in favor of Kirk Cousins. The Redskins have won a combined seven games the last two seasons since capturing the NFC East title in 2012, while Cousins put together a 1-4 record as a starter in 2014 (he didn’t finish that lone win, replaced by Colt McCoy in a home victory over Tennessee). Washington went 3-5 at home last season with two of those wins coming against AFC foes, as the ‘Skins have won four of their last five at FedEx Field in interconference action.

The Dolphins own a favorable schedule to begin the season after their trip to Washington (Jaguars, Bills, Jets in first four weeks). Miami has won and covered each of the last two season openers, but the Dolphins are favored in Week 1 for the first time since 2010. The Dolphins have fared well on the front-end of back-to-back games under Joe Philbin, going 4-2 SU and 6-0 ATS, even though five of those games came in the underdog role.

Panthers (-3, 41) at Jaguars – 1:00 PM EST

Carolina became the first team to win consecutive NFC South titles since realignment in 2002, even though the Panthers finished 7-8-1 last season. The Panthers have struggled in road openers recently, posting a 1-5 SU/ATS record since 2009 with the only win coming with Cam Newton sidelined in last season’s opening victory at Tampa Bay. However, under Ron Rivera, the Panthers own a 2-6 ATS record as a road favorite the last three seasons, while not being listed in this role in 2014.

Jacksonville hasn’t put together a winning season since 2007, as Blake Bortles enters his second season at quarterback. The Jaguars won just three games in Bortles’ rookie campaign, while the team posted a 6-9-1 ATS record, including a 2-4 ATS mark as a home underdog. Under Gus Bradley, the Jags have started 0-5 SU/ATS each of the last two seasons, while losing each season opener by at least 17 points.

Seahawks (-4, 40 ½) at Rams – 1:00 PM EST

The two-time defending NFC champions hit the road to start the season for the fourth time in the last five seasons, going for their third straight Week 1 victory. Seattle has lost two of its last three visits to the Edward Jones Dome, including a 28-26 setback as seven-point favorites last season. Super Bowl losers have fared well in the following season’s openers, winning three straight and putting together a 2-1 ATS record.

Will this be the year the Rams break through under Jeff Fisher? St. Louis hasn’t picked up a winning season since Fisher arrived in 2012, but the off-season acquisition of Nick Foles at quarterback should jump-start an offense that scored 19 points or less eight times in 2014. The Rams have stumbled against their division foes, going 3-9 SU/ATS the last two seasons, including four losses to Seattle. St. Louis allowed at least 26 points in five of eight home games last season, which resulted in a 5-3 ‘over’ mark.

Bengals (-3 ½, 43) at Raiders – 4:25 PM EST

Cincinnati is fresh off three straight double-digit victory seasons, but the Bengals have failed to escape the Wild Card round each time. Marvin Lewis’ squad begins the 2015 campaign with three of their first four games against AFC West foes, looking to capitalize off a 5-3 SU and 4-4 ATS road record from last season. The Bengals have struggled when laying points away from Paul Brown Stadium the past two seasons, going 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS with the only two victories coming by a combined four points.

The Raiders are turning into a popular pick to make the playoffs in Jack Del Rio’s first season, even though the Silver and Black has won a combined 11 games the past three years. Oakland closed out last season very strong at the Black Hole, winning its final three games in the underdog role against Kansas City, San Francisco, and Buffalo. However, the Raiders haven’t fared well in season openers in the last decade, losing nine of the past 10, including five defeats at the Coliseum.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 1
By Micah Roberts

You got to love the betting public. They come firing right out of the gate in Week 1 of the NFL with chalky road favorites as their top parlay plays. Nearly every Las Vegas sports book will collectively be sweating the outcomes of five major games which will ultimately decide how big of a win the house will have on opening weekend.

“They’re taking Green Bay (-7 at Chicago), Seattle (-4 at St. Louis), Indianapolis (-2.5 at Buffalo), Miami (-3.5 at Washington) and Philadelphia (-3 at Atlanta Monday night) the most,” said top William Hill bookmaker Nick Bogdanovich. “When you get good teams laying small numbers, the public will always gravitate to that side.”

That’s five road favorites, a situation where the books should fare well by getting at least three of the ‘dogs to win or cover -- maybe even more. Home underdogs getting +3 or more in the NFL are usually sides smarter money likes to focus on, and a few sharps already have.

“We’ve had some sharp money on Buffalo just before LeSean McCoy was announced as probable,” said Bogandanovich, “and we also took wise guy plays on Atlanta and San Francisco for Monday night’s games, but the public is still on the other side of all those games weighing the risk out more.”

Station Casinos book director Jason McCormick is in the same boat as Bogadanovich with public plays, and said the top sharp plays he’s gotten this week have come on the Redskins getting +4 at Miami and the Raiders +3.5 at home against the Bengals. Stations now has the Dolphins -3.5 and the Bengals -3 -120.

MGM Resorts VP of race and sports Jay Rood took time away his Mirage office Friday to be at the MGM Grand press conference to promote Saturday night’s Welterweight Title bout between Floyd Mayweather and Andre Berto, a fight that isn’t attracting a lot of attention.

“We haven’t taken a lot of action so far, and what we do have is small on Berto,” said Rood, who opened Mayweather -4000 and now has him -3000 with a take back at +1000. “The area we’ve been getting a lot of attention on has been that the fight will go over 12 full rounds (-240).”

Mayweather’s decision to fight Berto was frowned upon by the betting public as soon as the fight was announced. The public usually loves to ride with the underdog, but there isn’t much enthusiasm for this guy.

One NFL team that Rood has seen plenty of enthusiasm with, just like every book, has been the Colts at Buffalo where he added 10 cents of extra juice to Indy (-2.5 -120) on Thursday.

“Everyone seems fired up about the Colts this season and they’re taking them right away in Week 1. It’s one of our more lopsided games so far, and we’ll see a lot more action the next two nights before kickoff.”

The Colts were a steady -3 across the town when McCoy was ‘questionable,’ but when his status became ‘probable’ on Wednesday morning, every book shifted to -2.5. With the exception of Wynn’s sports book who just moved the juice on Buffalo to +3 -120.

Bogdanovich said his biggest risks as of Friday, with straight bets, parlays, teasers and everything else included, are on the Seahawks and Colts.

The unique thing about this week’s lines is that numbers have been posted since April when the NFL schedule was released so there are a couple very big moves over a long period of time.

Let’s take a closer look at some of the biggest moves that happened at the South Point who first opened week 1 on April 22.

-- The Packers opened as 4-point favorites at Chicago and by the Fourth of July, they were at -5.5. Halfway through preseason they were -6.5. The move to -7 happened Tuesday. The total dropped from 50.5 to 49 on Tuesday as well.

-- The Jets opened as 1.5-point home favorites against Cleveland, but were bet up to -3 in June where they still remain. The total has eroded from 41 down to 39.5, a move quite understandable since the Browns have stayed under the total in 11 of its past 12 games.

-- Miami was a 2-point road favorite at Washington and had passed -3 during preseason before hitting the high mark of -4 on Tuesday, and that’s when the sharp money bit with the dog and pushed Miami back to -3.5.

-- The Chargers opened as 2.5-point home favorites over Detroit and were moved to -3 on Monday when all the games were reopened for action at full limits.

-- The Eagles had the largest rating adjustment made during the preseason. In July the Eagles were pick ’em for the Monday night game at Atlanta. On Monday, they opened the Eagles -3. Sharp money likes the Falcons, but the public loves the Eagles. By game time, you might be able to get +3.5, so you might want to wait if playing Atlanta.

-- If the Eagles had the most points moved in a rating adjustment during preseason, then the Vikings are a close second. Even before coach Mike Zimmer was starting his preseason career with an 8-0 record, the bets were pouring in on them for Monday’s road game at San Francisco. Everyone is down on the 49ers this year. This game opened 49ers -4 and after the first week of preseason it was pick ‘em. It’s slowly been adjusted to Vikings -2.5. Boyd Gaming opened the Vikings -3 EVEN on Monday and 49ers money pushed them back to -2.5 like everyone else. Chances are the risk on this game, which will be the final game posted of the weekend, will be so large that you’ll be able to +3 with the 49ers again if you want it.

If both Monday night road favorites come in, it’s going to be a rough weekend for the books. If those five road favorites come in, coupled with another road favorite of Minnesota on Monday, it'll be lights out Las Vegas as the betting public will be cashing six-team parlays.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sunday Night Football Betting Preview: Giants at Cowboys

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-6, 51.5)

The Dallas Cowboys came within a questionable officiating call of reaching the NFC Championship Game last season, but their focus is on repeating as division champions when they kick off the season against the visiting New York Giants on Sunday night. Dallas swept the Giants last season en route to a 12-4 campaign and the NFC East title and has won four straight games in the series.

The Cowboys will sport a different look after running back DeMarco Murray, who ran away with the league rushing title last season, signed with hated rival Philadelphia in the offseason. Joseph Randle, Murray's backup, is expected to head a committee that includes former Oakland Raiders running back Darren McFadden. New York gave up 31 points in each of the losses to the Cowboys last season and will be without their top defensive player in defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul, who broke his thumb and had a finger amputated during a fireworks mishap. Another question surround the Giants has been the contract status of quarterback Eli Manning, but he is reported to be close to signing a four-year, $84 million extension.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE HISTORY: Most shops opened the Cowboys as 6-point faves. It spent some time at -5 and -5.5 before coming back to -6. The total opened at 49.5 before working its way up to 51.5.

POWER RANKINGS: Giants (+2) + Cowboys (-3.25) + home field (-3.0) = Cowboys -8.25

WEATHER: N/A

INJURY REPORT: Giants - DE Owamagbe Odighizuwa (Probable, foot), WR Victor Cruz (Out, calf), DE Jason Pierre-Paul (Out, finger), LB Jon Beason (Out, knee). Cowboys - CB Brandon Carr (Questionable, hand), LB Rolando McClain (Eligible Week 5, suspension), DE Greg Hardy (Eligible Week 5, suspension).

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Tom Coughlin is the oldest coach in the NFL by a five year margin and he?s coming off back-to-back losing seasons. Coughlin is clearly facing ?win now or get fired? pressure in 2015. The Cowboys defense finished #2 in the NFL with 31 takeaways last year, and Tony Romo finished with the league?s highest QB rating. Don't expect either stat to repeat!" Teddy Covers.

ABOUT THE GIANTS (2014: 6-10 SU, 7-9 ATS, 10-6 O/U): The biggest revelation for New York last season was the emergence of then-rookie wideout Odell Beckham, who finished with 1,305 yards receiving and caught four of his 12 scoring passes against Dallas despite missing the first four games. Beckham made a national name for himself with a highlight-reel one-handed touchdown grab in the second meeting against Dallas that nearly blew up the Internet. Fellow wide receiver Victor Cruz, who suffered a torn patellar tendon last season, is unlikely to play while dealing with a calf injury, so the Giants may rely on their own backfield triumvirate of Rashad Jennings, Andre Williams and free-agent acquisition Shane Vereen. Manning threw for 30 TD passes and 4,410 yards last season to quell fears after his dismal 27-interception campaign of 2013.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (2014: 12-4 SU, 10-6 ATS, 9-6-1 O/U): Tony Romo finished with 34 scoring passes versus only nine interceptions last season while establishing a franchise record with a 113.2 passer rating, but he will have to adapt to the absence of Murray, who amassed 12 100-yard games. Randle averaged 6.7 yards per carry behind the league's best offensive line and Romo has the luxury of a stud wide receiver in Dez Bryant, who had 88 receptions for 1,320 yards and topped the league with 16 touchdown catches. "Obviously nobody does it better going up to get the ball and when it’s in his hands, great things happen," veteran tight end Jason Witten said of Bryant. The Cowboys have some concerns on the other side of the ball after losing cornerback Orlando Scandrick to a season-ending injury and Rolando McClain for the first four games.

TRENDS:

* Over is 6-0 in the last six meetings in Dallas.
* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
* Giants are 0-4 ATS in their last four games in Week 1.
* Cowboys are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games in Week 1.

CONSENSUS: Fifty-six percent are backing the Cowboys.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Chance of rain when Jets host Browns Sunday
Andrew Avery

According to weather forecasts, there is around a 53 percent chance of showers at MetLife Stadium when the Cleveland Browns visit the New York Jets Sunday afternoon.

Temperatures in Carlstadt are expected to be in the mid-to-high-70s during gametime with wind blowing across the field at around just five miles per hour.

At present, the Jets are 3.5-point home faves and the total is 39.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Texans are used to winning in Week 1
Andrew Avery

The Houston Texans have won five straight season openers, the longest active streak in the NFL.

They've recorded a record of 4-1 against the spread over that stretch with their only ATS loss coming in the 2013 curtain raiser when they defeated the San Diego Chargers 31-18 but failed to cover as 5-point road faves.

They have a tough task in Week 1 this year as Andy Reid and the Kansas City Chiefs are in town. Reid is 5-0 all-time versus the Texans.

Books opened the Texans as 1.5-point home faves but that is down to -1.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Cutler a horrible bet under center versus Packers
Andrew Avery

It is well documented that Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler has had a rough history when facing the Green Bay Packers, but those poor performances have spilled over to the betting window as well.

Cutler has posted a 1-11 record straight up (including the postseason) in 12 career games against the Packers. Against the spread, Cutler-led teams have gone just 2-10.

The last time Cutler defeated Green Bay was back on Sept. 27 of the 2010 season when he led the Bears to a 20-17 win at Solider Field, covering the spread as 3-point pups.

He went 2-0 ATS versus the Packers that season as Green Bay triumphed in the regular season finale by a score of 10-3, but the Bears cashed as 11-point road dogs.

Cutler will give it another shot at home Sunday afternoon in their season opener. The Bears, who opened as 5-point home dogs, are presently +7.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Cold, rain, wind expected when Bills host Colts
Andrew Avery

Weather forecasts predict temperatures in the low-60s with a 61 percent chance of rain in Buffalo when the Bills host the Indianapolis Colts at Ralph Wilson Stadium Sunday afternoon.

Furthermore, gusts of wind at around 13 miles per hour are expected in the direction of the southeast end zone.

The Bills are currently 2.5-point home underdogs for their season opener.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sunday's Week 1 NFL betting cheat sheet

Sunday may be Sept. 13 on the calendar but it's Christmas Day for football bettors. We preview the Week 1 NFL action to bring you the need-to-know facts and figures in order to make a wager on the gridiron.


Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (+6.5, 49)

* Quarterback Jay Cutler will be in the eye of the storm following a season in which he threw for a career-best 28 touchdowns but was also intercepted 18 times and lost half of his 12 fumbles. Cutler is 1-11 in his career against Green Bay, including the postseason.

* Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers finished with 38 touchdowns versus five interceptions last season and he fattened those numbers in the two drubbings of Chicago, throwing for 617 yards with 10 scoring passes and zero picks.


Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans (-1.5, 40.5)

* Kansas City hopes it has upgraded on offense by adding Maclin, who had 85 receptions for 1,318 yards and 10 TDs with Philadelphia a year ago while Chiefs wideouts failed to catch a single touchdown pass. They have the edge when it comes to the men on the sidelines, as Chiefs bench boss Andy Reid is 5-0 all-time against the Texans.

* Houston has won five straight season openers, the longest active streak in the NFL.


Cleveland Browns at New York Jets (-3.5, 39.5)

* Journeyman quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, starting in place of Geno Smith, who suffered a broken jaw in training camp after getting punched by a teammate, is currently the focal point for a team that ranked sixth in the league in total defense a year ago but couldn't make up for its extreme deficiencies on offense.

* A week ago, Cleveland shockingly traded running back Terrance West, who led the team with 673 rushing yards last season, giving Isaiah Crowell the inside track to carry the bulk of the load in the backfield. While the Browns are forecast to have one of the best offensive lines in football, they were just average rushing the ball last season and McCown was a disaster in Tampa Bay, throwing just 11 touchdowns passes and winning just once in 11 appearances.


Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills (+2.5, 45)

* Indianapolis is breaking in a pair of rookies along that line in defensive end Henry Anderson and tackle David Parry while hoping outside linebacker Robert Mathis continues to defy Father Time. “These guys are going to go and they’re going to play hard and they’re going to play tough and they’re going to play damn smart,” head coach Chuck Pagano told reporters regarding Anderson and Parry. “Feel great about that group.”

* Bills QB Tyrod Taylor is capable of making plays with his legs as well as his arm but should have both McCoy (hamstring) and rookie Karlos Williams (undisclosed) available to take on some of the pressure in the running game. "I feel like the medical staff has done a good job of preparing me so far,” McCoy told reporters. “Practicing, I’ve just been doing light loads, each day doing more and more. I feel comfortable. I’m not sure if I’ll be exactly 100 percent (on Sunday), but I feel good enough to go out there and compete.” McCoy ran for 2,962 yards and 14 TDs in his final two seasons with Philadelphia while adding 80 receptions.


Miami Dolphins at Washington Redskins (+3.5, 43)

* Ryan Tannehill has a few new weapons at his disposal as Miami welcomed the arrivals of Kenny Stills (New Orleans) and tight end Jordan Cameron (Cleveland) to add to emerging star Jarvis Landry and Rishard Matthews. With veteran wideout Mike Wallace shuffled off to Minnesota, coach Joe Philbin is hoping his quick-strike offense will lead to the team's first postseason appearance since 2008. Lamar Miller amassed nearly 1,400 yards from scrimmage last season, with a career-high 1,099 coming on the ground.

* Washington WR DeSean Jackson expects to play despite being plagued by a sprained right shoulder in the preseason.


Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3, 41)

* The Jaguars expected tight end Julius Thomas to be a big part of their offense when they signed him away from Denver in the offseason, but Thomas underwent surgery on his finger Monday and will miss at least three weeks.

* The Panthers lost star wideout Kelvin Benjamin in the preseason, leaving the receiving corps suspect at best. Rookie Devin Funchess could emerge as a top target but he's been hampered by a hamstring injury throughout the preseason, leaving veteran Ted Ginn Jr. and tight end Greg Olson as key cogs.


Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams (+4, 40.5)

* Seattle has won 17 of the last 20 meetings with St. Louis, but the three losses have come in its last five visits to St. Louis.

* St. Louis Rookie running back Todd Gurley's ailing knee will make him a spectator on Sunday and Tre Mason (hamstring), last season's leading rusher, could follow suit, leaving Benny Cunningham and Isaiah Pead to face Seattle's fearsome front seven. The going should be tough as the Rams mustered a season-low 42 yards in the most recent meeting against the Seahawks.


New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5, 48.5)

* The real question with the Saints often has been the performance of the defense, which ranked 31st in total yards (384 per game) and 28th in scoring (26.5) a year ago and will have a number of rookies in key roles.

* Carson Palmer is 16-6 as a starter with Arizona, including 6-0 last season, and has won 10 of his 12 home starts with the team.


Detroit Lions at San Diego Chargers (-3, 46)

* Rivers, who has started 145 consecutive games, has been sacked at least 30 times in five straight seasons. San Diego is hoping to end that streak as it helped shore up its offensive line with the additions of tackle Joe Barksdale (St. Louis) and guard Orlando Franklin (Denver).

* Detroit, which led the league in rush defense (69.3 yards) and was second in total defense (300.9) in 2014, added defensive lineman Haloti Ngata from Baltimore, but the five-time Pro Bowler battled hamstring issues in the preseason.


Tennessee Titans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, 41)

* Heading into their matchup with rookie quarterback Jameis Winston's Bucs, Titans defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau's defenses are 26-3 against rookie quarterbacks since 1995. Those defenses have allowed 24 touchdown passes, 37 interceptions while limiting the signal callers to a .551 completion percentage during that span.

* Winston could use some help from a running game that finished 29th in the league with an average of 85.9 yards last season and an offensive line breaking in a pair of rookie starters. “The linemen we’ve got, those are the linemen we’ve got,” offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter told reporters. “Shoot, I think they’re all five going to the Pro Bowl.” Running back Doug Martin gained just 494 yards while missing five games last season but once again is atop the depth chart at the position.


Cincinnati Bengals at Oakland Raiders (+3, 43)

* Jeremy Hill is coming off a season in which he registered four games with at least 140 rushing yards, joining Hall-of-Famers Eric Dickerson (five) and Curtis Martin as the only rookies to accomplish the feat. Dalton, meanwhile, became the third quarterback in NFL history to both pass for at least 3,000 yards (Peyton Manning and Cam Newton) and lead his team to the playoffs (Joe Flacco and Otto Graham) in each of his first four seasons.

* The Raiders have won six straight and 14 of 15 overall home meetings with the Bengals, including the postseason.


Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos (-4, 47.5)

* "I'm not really worried if it's first game, last game," Baltimore cornerback Jimmy Smith told ESPN of the 39-year-old Manning, who has thrown 31 touchdowns against one interception in outdoor contests in September since joining Denver in 2012. "He's going to be dangerous. He's still Peyton Manning, no matter what." Manning (4,727 yards, 39 TDs in 2014) and the high-octane offense barely missed a step over the last two seasons until a torn quad in the final month forced Denver to rely on C.J. Anderson and its running game.

* Joe Flacco (3,986 yards, 27 TDs) saw free-agent wideout Torrey Smith head to San Francisco in the offseason while first-round selection Breshad Perriman already has been ruled out of Sunday's tilt with a sprained right knee. Flacco still has grizzled veteran Steve Smith (79 receptions, 1,065 yards, six touchdowns), who believes he has more left in the tank as he enters his 15th season.


New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-6, 51.5)

* Then-rookie wideout Odell Beckham made a national name for himself with a highlight-reel one-handed touchdown grab in the second meeting against Dallas that nearly blew up the Internet. Fellow wide receiver Victor Cruz, who suffered a torn patellar tendon last season, is unlikely to play while dealing with a calf injury, so the Giants may rely on their own backfield triumvirate of Rashad Jennings, Andre Williams and free-agent acquisition Shane Vereen. Manning threw for 30 TD passes and 4,410 yards last season to quell fears after his dismal 27-interception campaign of 2013.

* The Cowboys will sport a different look after running back DeMarco Murray, who ran away with the league rushing title last season, signed with hated rival Philadelphia in the offseason. Joseph Randle, Murray's backup, is expected to head a committee that includes former Oakland Raiders running back Darren McFadden.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL

Week 1

Packers @ Bears-- Green Bay won nine of last ten series games, winning last five series games, four by 7+ points. Pack started 0-1 last three years, giving up 30+ points in all three- seven of their last nine road openers went over total. Chicago has new coach in Fox; since '12, they're 1-5 as home underdogs, 9-16-1 as a single digit dog. Bears won five of last six home openers; three of last four went over total. Green Bay beat Bears 38-17/55-14 LY; they averaged 10+ yards/pass attempt in both games. Since '07, Pack is 22-17 as road favorites, 13-7 vs NFC North rivals. How much will Rodgers miss Jordy Nelson, his #1 WR who is out for the year?

Chiefs @ Texans-- Curious if addition of WR Maclin will help KC passing game; Chief WRs had zero TDs LY. Houston won last five home openers, covering four of them; four of the five wins were by 10+ points. Seven of last ten home openers stayed under. Chiefs lost seven of last nine road openers, but Reid won five of his last six. Chiefs are 2-2 here, with last visit in '10. Home side won last three series games; last two were decided by total of five points. Hoyer gets nod as Houston's QB; they weren't decisive in choosing him. Over is 10-6 in Houston home games the last two years, 23-15-1 in KC road games in last five years.

Browns @ Jets-- Cleveland is 1-15 in last 16 season openers, with only win in 2004- they're 3-6-2 vs spread as a dog in road openers. Over is 10-4 in their last 14 road openers. Jets have a new coach, Fitzpatrick at QB; they are 18-27 as home favorites since '07, but won last four home openers, three by 5 or less points. Five of their last seven home openers stayed under total. Browns lost by 6-11 in last two games vs Jets; they were 5-1-1 as road dogs in first year under Pettine. Under is 19-13 in Cleveland road games the last four years. Cleveland suspended its OL coach because of a DUI (not his first) so that is a problem.

Colts @ Bills-- After four years as Ravens' backup, Tyrod Taylor makes first NFL start here for Bills. Indy lost last four Week 1 road openers, are 1-4 in last five road openers, with seven of last ten staying under total, but they added Frank Gore/Andre Johnson; should have damn good offense. Colts won seven of last eight games vs Buffalo-- average total in last four, 33.5. Bills won five of last seven home openers, covered 10 of last 13 as home dog; Rex Ryan was 6-2 as a home dog last two years with Jets. Last three years, Indy is 8-3-1 as road favorite, 13-9-1 vs spread in games where spread was 3 or less points. Over is 33-22-1 in their last 56 road games.

Panthers @ Jaguars-- Carolina covered just two of last eight as a road favorite; underdogs are 17-7 vs spread in its road games last three years. Jacksonville is 2-6 in last 8 home openers, losing last three by combined score of 99-26. Home side won four of last five series games; three of last four were decided by 6 or less points. Panthers lost by 10-31 points in their two visits here. Jaguars are 8-23-1 as home underdog since '10 (5-16 in non-divisional games); under is 20-12 in Jax home games last four years. Over is 20-12 in Carolina road games the last four years. Carolina lost Benjamin for year; what WRs will step up and replace his production?

Dolphins @ Redskins-- Washington's summer was a total mess; Cousins gets start at QB- they need a win to shut critics up. Home side won last seven series games; Miami lost last three visits here by 20-11-3 points- their last win here was in '84. Dolphins are 2-9 in last 11 road openers; under is 16-5 in their last 21, including last six in row. Washngton is 4-7 in last 11 games as a home dog; they're 8-13 in last 21 games where spread was 3 or less. Since '06, Skins are 10-22-2 vs spread in non-divisional home games. Miami is 15-10 in last 25 games in which spread was 3 or less. Redskins scored 31.8 ppg in last four home openers but still split the games (over 4-0).

Seahawks @ Rams-- Seattle is 17-3 in last 20 series games, 2-3 in last five visits here; Rams used two great fake punts to upset the Seahawks LY. How much will addition of star TE Graham bolster Seattle's offense? Rams are 2-6 in last eight home openers, 1-4 vs spread as an underdog- over is 11-6-1 in their last 18. Seattle lost seven of last eight road openers (1-4 vs spread if favored); since 2010, they're 2-5 as a divisional road favorite. Rams are 7-6 in last 13 games as a home dog; over is 19-12-1 in their home games last four years. Average total in last ten series games is 32.4. Since '02, Super Bowl loser is 2-11 vs spread in its opener the next season.

Saints @ Cardinals-- Arizona won eight of last nine home openers covering three of last four; last three stayed under total. Cardinals are 12-3-1 in last 16 games where spread was 3 or less. How much will loss of TE Graham make Saints more of a running team? Home side won last five series games; Saints lost three of last four visits here, with losses by 2-24-10 points. NO is 13-24-1 vs spread last five years on road, 10-14 SU last three years- they covered once in last eight road openers, with six of last seven going over. Arizona is 7-2-1 as home favorites under Arians.

Lions @ Chargers-- Home side won eight of last ten series games; San Diego won six of last seven, winning last four here, three by 6 or less points. Detroit is 4-9 as road dogs since '12, 5-10 in last 15 non-divisional road games; under is 12-4 in Lion road games last two years, 19-12 in San Diego home games last four years. Since '10, Chargers are 10-4 as non-divisional home favorite; they're 8-13 in games with spread of 3 or less. Detroit is 3-11 in road openers last 14 years (4-10 vs spread); under is 3-1-1 in last five- they won in Week 1 in each of last four years- three of those were home.

Titans @ Buccaneeers-- Couple of rookie QBs starting here, with solid defensive coaches on other side. Home side won nine of last ten series games, with Titans winning six of last seven vs Bucs. Tennessee is 1-2 here, with last visit in '07. Tampa Bay lost seven of last nine season openers; under is 8-3-1 in their last 12. Bucs scored 16-14-14 in last three home openers but they have an OC this year (Tedford was ill LY). Titans are 8-12 as road underdogs since '12, 7-14-2 in games with spread of 3 or less points. Bucs are 6-12 as favorites since '11, 5-11-2 in last 18 games where spread was 3 or less points.

Bengals @ Raiders-- Oakland lost last five times they opened at home; last Week 1 home win was in '02. Raiders lost by 8-4-5 in last three season openers; underdogs are 3-0-1 in last four. Silver and Black are 15-22 as home dogs since '06, 5-10 as non-divisional home dog since '10. Home side won last five series games, with Oakland 4-2 in last six; Bengals lost last ten visits here, but their last visit here was in '09 (they were 1-3 vs Raiders in LA back in day when Raiders lived there). Cincy covered once in last six tries as road favorite; under is 14-8-1 in their last 23 road games.

Ravens @ Broncos-- Kubiak is Denver's HC; he was Ravens' OC LY, so their defense will know what to see from Broncos. Denver is 23-3 SU in last 26 home openers, 10-4-1 vs spread in last 15; they scored 37 ppg in Week 1 in three years Manning has been here. Broncos are 16-7 as home fave in Manning era, 10-4 in non-division games. Ravens lost three of last four road openers but are 5-2 vs spread as a dog in road openers; over is 9-6-1 in their road games last two years. Over is 28-12 in Bronco home games last five years. Ravens lost four of last six in Denver, but won playoff game here in '12; they're 4-8-1 vs spread in last thirteen games as a road underdog. Lot of inexperience on Denver OL, bad news if you have an immobile QB.

Giants @ Cowboys-- Dallas won last four series games, with 55.2 average total in last five series games. Cowboys are 8-24 as home favorites since 2010, 3-9 in divisional games; they covered once in last six tries as a favorite in home opener. Giants are 7-9 as a dog since '13; they lost 36-31/31-21 in last two visits here- in last eight seasons, they're 14-10 vs spread in NFC East road games. Over is 10-1 in Giants last 11 road openers, 1-3 in Dallas' last four home openers. Big Blue will be without four of top five tacklers from LY and their safeties were crippled by injury this summer. Dallas averaged 10.7/9.5 ypa vs NYG LY.

Eagles @ Falcons-- Philly won last six road openers, winning SU as dog last two years; three of their last five were decided by 3 or less points. Under Kelly, Eagles are 9-7 vs spread on road, 11-4 in games where spread was 3 or less points. Falcons won last two vs Philly 35-31/30-17; average total in last three series games is 53.7. Over is 11-5 in Eagle road games under Kelly. Atlanta is 4-10 in last 14 games where spread was 3 or less; they're 9-5 as home dog since '08. Falcons went 10-22 last two years so they made change on bench; new OC Kyle Shanahan is familiar with Eagles from his days in Washington.

Vikings @ 49ers-- Peterson back for Minnesota; he last played in LY's opener. Lot of changes with 49ers, few for better; they were 44-19-1 under Harbaugh. 11 of 22 starters from LY are gone now. Niners won last four openers and scored 28+ in all four- they're home underdog for first time since 2011. Home side won 10 of last 11 Viking-Niner games; Minnesota lost eight of last nine visits here; they're road favorite for first time since '12, 12-5 in last 17 games where spread was 3 or less. Vikings are 4-10 in last 14 road openers, with eight of last 11 staying under total. Since 2007, 49ers are 3-11-3 as an underdog of 3 or less points; 11 of their last 16 home games stayed under total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Streaks, Tips, Notes

NFL: Defense Rules in September

The numbers show that defense is generally ahead of offense in the first week, with 'Under' prevailing as offenses works to get themselves in synch. A dive into our trusty NFL football database confirms the thought. Since the 2000 campaign, the O/U in week one is 108-128-2 with an average combined score of 41.3 points/game. The rest of September tilts the O/U is 287-277-7 with a combined score of 43.2 PPG. The next query looking at Week-One games deemed to be high scoring, that is ones where the betting market had set the O/U line at >44 the 'Under' hit at at 59.7% clip (46-30-1).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Showdown of draft's top two picks'

Tennessee Titans (2-14 SU,3-12-1 ATS) head to Raymond James Stadium to face Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-14 SU, 7-9 ATS). This game would have been largely ignored by both fans and those with an interest in sports gaming. But, the fact Titans have #2 pick Marcus Mariota guiding the troops while Buccaneers have #1 pick Jameis Winston steering the ship it's become an intriguing inter-conference clash.

It's difficult to say much about Winston and/or Mariota at this early stage of their NFL careers so making a case for either product on the field is a coin flip at best and screams take-a-pass. However, for those who wish to participate a few trends to ponder. Titans have been pretty good against the spread in Week-One (6-2 ATS), while Buccaneers have been pretty bad (2-6 ATS). Titans have been cash drainers in Non-Conference tilts (1-4 ATS, 3-7 ATS), Bucs have been money in-the-bank (4-1 ATS, 7-3 ATS). Titans did not fair well at the betting window vs teams with a losing record last year (1-8-1 ATS), Buccaneers were not nearly as bad (4-4 ATS).

Note: Winston does have the luxury of a pair of 1,000-yard receivers at his disposal in Mike Evans (1,051 yds, 12 TD's), Vincent Jackson (1,002 yds, 2 TD's) and will be facing a defense without two key starters in Jason McCourty, Sammie Hill from a unit that allowed a whopping 235.9 passing yards/game last year. Best of luck this season, but above all enjoy the games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Streaks, Tips, Notes

Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams September 12, 1:00 EST

Seattle Seahawks get this year's moniker of Super Bowl Runner-Up after losing 28-24 to the New England Patriots on a questionable intercepted pass, rather than a run play from the one yard line. Runner Ups tend to under perform against-the-oddsmaker the following season. Since 2000 they're just 106-129-5 ATS and extremely vulnerable in season opener's notching a 2-13 ATS mark including 1-5 ATS as road chalk. In the last three meetings at St Louis it has not been a cake walk for Seattle as Seahawks have won once and lost twice dropping the cash in each contest.


Philadelphia at Atlanta September 14, 7:10 EST

In one of two Monday nighter's the Philadelphia Eagles travel to Atlanta to take on the Falcons. You never want to get too excited about what happens during the NFL preseason, but Eagles offense was impressive racking up 264 passing, 140 rushing yards/game for 13 majors. Sam Bradford looking sharp in practice season (13-of-15 with 3 TD's) along with arguably the best rushing trio in the NFL in Murray, Mathews, Sproles expect Eagles to make it 3-0 SU/ATS in season openers since Chip Kelly's arrival and 5-2 ATS as favorites vs the conference while Falcons see a string of 7-0 SU/ATS season home openers come to an end.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Odds and Betting: Line Movements & Last-Minute News
by Alan Matthews

So, have you stopped cursing Pittsburgh Steelers kicker Josh Scobee yet? Scobee, acquired last month in a trade with Jacksonville after the Steelers lost two other kickers to major injury, missed two field goals in Thursday night's NFL Kickoff Game against New England. The Patriots won 28-21. The total in that was 51, and the "over" was taking a huge lean. All Scobee has to do is hit one of those, and presuming all else remained the same obviously the "over" hits. The books had to love that. The Steelers' last-minute touchdown also made the game a push if you gave the 7 points, which is where it closed most everywhere. So a rather unsatisfying opening to the season!


Each week during this season, I will provide you on either Friday or Saturday with a last-minute primer on the Sunday (and Monday) games. Such things as injury updates or any line movements from their open on Monday. I'll try and explain why that was the case. Week 1 is a bit different, however, because most books have had lines up for weeks if not months.

And I can tell you that the sportsbooks have just about no clue what's going to happen this week. Why do I think that? There are a crazy eight home underdogs. That's ties for the most in Week 1in 20 years. It's usually profitable betting on home dogs, so it should be an interesting weekend.

Packers at Bears (+7): Chicago is the biggest home dog on the board, and this has jumped from an opening of 5. Clearly bettors don't care that the Packers lost No. 1 receiver Jordy Nelson to a season-ending injury. The Bears might not have their No. 1, Alshon Jeffery, due to a calf injury that kept him out all preseason. He was limited again in practice Friday -- he hasn't gone full-bore in more than a month -- and is questionable. I don't see him playing. Bears also without their best defensive lineman in the suspended Jay Ratliff.

Titans at Buccaneers (-3): This line has stayed steady. Normally a game you might ignore between 2-14 teams from last season. But it's the first time in NFL history that quarterbacks drafted No. 1, Tampa Bay's Jameis Winston, and No. 2 overall, Tennessee's Marcus Mariota, meet in opener of their rookie seasons. Winston's college career ended in a Rose Bowl loss last season to Mariota's Ducks. Key injury here is to excellent Bucs second-year receiver Mike Evans. He might be a game-time call with a hamstring injury, but Evans thinks he plays, and so do I.

Dolphins at Redskins (+3.5): This was 1.5 back when everyone thought Robert Griffin III was going to be Washington's quarterback. It's now 3.5 with Kirk Cousins as the starter -- RGIII was cleared Friday from his concussion, so he will be active on Sunday. It's still not clear as of this writing whether RGIII or Colt McCoy is the backup to Cousins. Unbelievably, it might be McCoy. Amazing how far Griffin has fallen. By the way, the Fins are taking the biggest lean of any team on Sunday. Would Dan Snyder fire Coach Jay Gruden if the Redskins lose something like 45-0 this week? Not sure what the record for earliest NFL firing is.

Colts at Bills (+2.5): This number has jumped from a point its opening. The key injury to note here is to Buffalo's big offseason acquisition, running back LeSean McCoy. He probably leads the NFL in carries this season the way new head coach Rex Ryan likes to pound the ball. McCoy didn't play at all this preseason with a hamstring injury, but Ryan calls him "100 percent good to go."

Lions at Chargers (-3): This line has risen two points, which I'm moderately surprised about. True, the Lions are usually a vastly worse club on the road than at Ford Field. But the Bolts will not have suspended star tight end Antonio Gates. And now his replacement, Ladarius Green, is out with a concussion. Two good-looking running backs in this one in the Chargers' Melvin Gordon and Lions' Ameer Abdullah. The last time they shared a field, Nov. 15, 2014, Wisconsin's Gordon set the FBS record of 408 rushing yards against Abdullah's Nebraska squad, although Gordon's mark would be broken a week later.

Chiefs at Texans (-1): This line has stayed pretty steady, although the total has dropped from 42 to 40.5. Does the preseason matter? The Chiefs were the NFL's only unbeaten team in games that don't matter. Kansas City saw the return of excellent defensive tackle Dontari Poe to practice this week. He had surgery on July 15 to have a herniated disk removed from his back and hadn't practiced in full since. It looks as if Poe will play but will be on a snap count. Poe, a two-time Pro Bowler, is one of the best run-stoppers in the NFL -- while adding 6.0 sacks last year -- and Houston led the league in rushing attempts in 2014. But that was largely with Arian Foster, who is out at least the first few games of this season.

Vikings at 49ers (+2.5): No line has moved more than this one, as it started with the 49ers at -4. Remember, though, that was months ago before the likes of Patrick Willis, Justin Smith and Chris Borland retired, and Aldon Smith was released; Smith signed with Oakland on Friday, incidentally. This defense is a shell of the one it was in 2014 now. Vikings running back Adrian Peterson could have a huge night on Monday as he returns from his nearly season-long suspension. He didn't play at all this preseason, but he never does.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Balmoral Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 3 - Post: 7:50 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 69 - Purse:$2500 - NW 2 RACES OR $4,000 LIFETIME TO BE CLAIMED FOR $7,000


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 5 BOYS ROUND HERE 9/2


# 9 RUNINTHRUDABRIDLE 8/1


# 7 LEO 5/2


Really keen on the probability of BOYS ROUND HERE taking down the winner's share in here. He has been racing competitively and the TrackMaster speed figs are among the most compelling in the bunch. A competitive class horse shouldn't be be forgotten. With an average class number of 78 all signs point to yes. This nice horse recorded a really strong speed rating in last race. Looks sharp to come right back. RUNINTHRUDABRIDLE - May provide us a win based on respectable recent speed ratings - earning an avg of 71. He has really strong class figures, averaging 73. Worth considering for a bet here. LEO - When Warren sends this race horse out you can bet they'll hit the board, numbers show them there 100 percent of the time.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Harrah's Philadelphia

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 9 - Post: 3:20 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 93 - Purse:$35000 - LIBERTY BELL E.C. SERIES 3 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS 3RD OF 3 DIVISIONS ALL HORSES RACE UNCOUPLED BY PERMISSION OF PHRC


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 5 ALLBEEF N NOBULL 4/1


# 1 MCARDLES LIGHTNING 4/1


# 2 RISE UP NOW 7/2


ALLBEEF N NOBULL will not be denied the ultimate prize in this one. The handicapping group will always toss in a fine animal from the 5 post here at Harrah's Philadelphia, keep in mind for your exotics. Is a substantial win contender given the 99 speed figure from his most recent race. Post 5 has been winning at a much higher than average percentage, suggesting really strong probability of success here. MCARDLES LIGHTNING - This race could be controlled by this horse. One look at the avgerage speed fig will verify that. Been racing with some tougher customers of late, has a distinct class advantage. (Average Rating 93). RISE UP NOW - Don't let a standardbred with such a very strong winning statistic like this be glossed over. Earned a 93 speed rating last out. A duplicate contest here should get the win in this contest.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Albuquerque

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 9 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $9600 Class Rating: 80

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE APRIL 17, 2015. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 21, 2015 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 7 OMINOUS SKY 7/2


# 10 ATTACK MODE 4/1


# 9 MY NAME'S MUD 6/1


OMINOUS SKY looks to be a very good contender. This mare obviously likes the distance, going 7 / 25 in her races recently. Will probably go to the front end and should never look back. She has solid class ratings, averaging 85, and has to be given a shot for this event. ATTACK MODE - Has very good Equibase Speed Figs and has to be considered for a bet in this race. This mare looks very good for this race since Hernandezsando has a very solid winning percentage with horses going this distance. MY NAME'S MUD - Has been racing soundly and has among the most favorable speed in the race for today's distance. This horse has a very good winning percentage in dirt sprints.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Central Wyoming Fair

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 5 - Claiming - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $4400 Class Rating: 84

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES IN 2014-2015. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $2,500.



RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 3 A LITTLE STORM KEY 7/2


# 1 PATRIOT JOE 8/1


# 2 BLACK JACK VISION 2/1


A LITTLE STORM KEY is tough to overlook as the bet in here. Could provide positive dividends based on decent recent Equibase Speed Figures with an average of 69. Has been racing very well and has among the best speed in the race for today's distance. PATRIOT JOE - The Equibase speed fig of 60 from his last race looks decent in here. Seems to have a formidable class edge based on the recent company kept. BLACK JACK VISION - With Beetem on top him, this gelding will most likely be able to break out quickly for this race. Could best this field based on the Equibase Speed Fig - 60 - of his last race.