Sunday 9/13/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Cowboys acquire RB Michael from Seahawks

SEATTLE - The Dallas Cowboys announced they have acquired running back Christine Michael from the Seattle Seahawks, reportedly for a conditional seventh-round draft pick.

Michael will be expected to provide depth behind Darren McFadden, Joseph Randle and Lance Dunbar in the Cowboys' backfield.

The Seahawks had high expectations for Michael as a second-round pick out of Texas A&M in 2013, but he failed to develop as the front office had expected and Seattle signed veteran Fred Jackson to serve as Marshawn Lynch's primary backup.

Michael, 24, survived Saturday's roster cuts as Robert Turbin was placed on injured reserve, but the Seahawks were impressed with rookie Thomas Rawls during the preseason (21 carries for 127 yards and one touchdown)

Touted for his combination of size and speed, Michael (5-feet-10, 221 pounds) has flashed during the preseason but has logged only 52 carries for 254 yards (4.9-yard average) and one touchdown through his first two seasons.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Opening Line Report: Broncos open -4 vs. Ravens

Over the past 10 seasons, the Pats have won 83 percent of their home games straight-up.

When federal judge Richard Berman overturned Tom Brady’s four-game suspension last week, it was the metaphorical shot heard ‘round the world. And it was particularly loud and clear in Las Vegas, where the line on Thursday night’s Pittsburgh Steelers-New England Patriots game jumped by as much as a touchdown at some sportsbooks.

Yes, the defending Super Bowl champions will have their superstar quarterback under center when the 2015 season opens. And in the wake of the ruling that cleared Brady’s way, Patriots money flooded the books – rightly so, according to Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports for Wynn Las Vegas.

“I don’t put the opening-week NFL lines up until the preseason is over, and this game in particular plays into the reasons why,” said Avello, who now has the Patriots (15-4 SU, 11-8 ATS in 2014) as 7-point favorites. “Tom Brady is worth approximately 6 to 7 points, and now that I know he’s in, a full touchdown is a good starting point for betting purposes. Over the past 10 seasons, the Pats have won 83 percent of their home games straight-up, and bettors will need to decide if the 7 points will come into play in this excellent NFL opener.

At offshore site Bookmaker.ag, John Lester said his operation played it close to the vest while the Brady case made its way through the legal process.

“Obviously, this line has been all over the place due to the Deflategate saga, but we protected ourselves a bit by pulling it during most of camp and the preseason,” said Lester, who also had the Pats at -7. “I feel that the Steelers are a tad overhyped heading into this season, and not having LeVeon Bell (suspension) in this one will hurt. The Pats are perennially slow starters, but more often than not, when drama surrounds them, they use it as motivation. “

Along with Bell’s two-game suspension, Avello also cautioned bettors on the Steelers (11-6 SU, 9-8 ATS in 2014) being without center Maurkice Pouncey, who is expected to miss 10 weeks with a broken leg.

Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos (-4)

Two of the last three AFC champions collide in this Sunday matchup, with both teams holding high hopes for the 2015 season. And as much as two perennial playoff contenders can, Lester says the Ravens (11-7 SU, 9-8-1 ATS in 2014) and Broncos (12-5 SU, 8-9 ATS in 2014) are perhaps a little overlooked, and he likes the visitor in this contest.

“Here we have two very good teams that seem to be flying under the radar a bit, Baltimore more so than Denver,” Lester said. “I expect our sharper clients will let the public drive this spread up even further than it’s moved thus far, and then take a shot with the Ravens. They are very live dogs, in my opinion.”

Avello expects a good game but seems to have a bit more faith in Denver.

“The Broncos have only two home losses in the last three years and therefore one of the strongest home-field advantages in the NFL,” he said. “They may not be as strong offensively as they have been in the past, but may have their best defense during Manning’s tenure in Denver.

“The Ravens always put a quality team on the field but have traditionally been slow starters.”

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-5)

Bettors get a clash of NFC East rivals right out of the gate, and in the Sunday night prime-time spotlight, no less. New York was a dismal 6-10 SU, 7-9 ATS last year, while Dallas reached the second round of the playoffs in going 13-5 SU, 11-7 ATS. Avello expects more Cowboys money on this game in the coming days.

“New York Giants fans like myself haven’t had a lot to root for the past two years, and this season, at least on paper, doesn’t look that promising. Eli Manning has been inconsistent over that time period, and the offensive line probably plays a big part in that,” Avello said. “The Cowboys, who are coming off their best season in a decade, should compete for at least the division title. They’ve beaten the Giants four straight, and I expect the money will show up on them come Sunday night.”

Lester, who pegged the Cowboys a 6-point chalk, echoed Avello’s sentiments

“Some people believe in the Giants this year, but I am not one of them. The defense is a glaring concern,” he said. “This number seems about right, and the minimal line movement over the last couple of months has supported that. The Cowboys are the most public team we have.”

Seattle Seahawks (-3) at St. Louis Rams

The Seahawks (14-5 SU, 10-8-1 ATS in 2014) have been to the past two Super Bowls, and if not for a horrible play call, they’d be the two-time defending champions. But they start the season with an NFC West road game against what is expected to be an improved Rams squad (6-10 SU, 7-9 ATS in 2014).
That said, Lester still finds the number curiously low.

“Bettors who have any sense are going to look at this line and see that it reeks of fish stench,” Lester said. “St. Louis usually plays Seattle tough (3-0 ATS last three at home), and Rams coach Jeff Fisher should be preaching to his players that this is a statement game to start the season. The squares will be all over Seattle at this short price.”

Avello, who put Seattle at -4, also expects the Fisher-led rams to make this interesting.

“St Louis stayed competitive in 2013 and ‘14 after losing quarterback Sam Bradford, and I attribute much of that to Coach Fisher, because I believe he’s one of the best in the league,” Avello said. “In the last three meetings at St Louis, the Rams have won twice and lost the third by five points, so going to Missouri hasn’t been a cakewalk for the Seahawks.

“Seattle will certainly be in the hunt to win it all again, but we’re talking Game No. 1 of the season here.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Coleman opens season as Falcons' starting running back

FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. -- As the offseason progressed, it was clear the Atlanta Falcons would be making a change at running back.

Steven Jackson, Jacquizz Rodgers and Antone Smith did not return after the 2014 season.

Devonta Freeman, a fourth-round pick last season, returned while Tevin Coleman was selected in the third round of the this year's draft.

When the Falcons host the Philadelphia Eagles Monday night, Coleman will get the starting nod with Freeman recovering from a hamstring injury.

Head coach Dan Quinn said Wednesday, "That's (how) we'll start off. We are still working through some of the things. But (Coleman) is how we'll start it off."

Coleman averaged 142.6 rushing yards per game over the final 21 games of his college career at Indiana. He owns the school's single-season rushing record with 2,036 yards, which he set last season, and he set the mark while going for 228 yards against eventual national champion Ohio State.

The Falcons hope Coleman can add pop to their attack.

With Freeman potentially sidelined, undrafted rookie free agent Terron Ward is in line to be Coleman's backup. Ward is the younger brother of Denver safety T.J. Ward.

Said Quinn, "I think the combination as a protector and as a runner (was impressive). The detail that he went for on special teams, to really go for it, just jumped out at us right away."

Notes: Left guard Andy Levitre, who was acquired in a trade from Tennessee, restructured his contract to lower his base salary to $1.5 million, down from $6.5 million. The Falcons made up the difference with a $5 million signing bonus, which gave him a new salary-cap number of $2.875 million. He was set to receive $27.3 million on the original six-year, $46.8 million deal he signed with Tennessee as a free agent after spending four seasons in Buffalo. ... Tight end Jacob Tamme, who suffered a back injury in the preseason finale, has been cleared to play and is expected to start against the Eagles.

Free safety Robenson Therezie, an undrafted rookie from Auburn, was a utility player in college and played several positions. The Falcons decided he was best as a free safety. "We saw the big jump when we got to camp," Quinn said. "He was one that totally made the jump at free safety. Is he a corner? Is he a nickel? Or is he safety? It became really clear that he could be best featured at free safety."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Albert will start for Dolphins at left tackle

DAVIE, Fla. - The prospects for the Miami Dolphins on the offensive line got a lot better Wednesday when it was revealed that Branden Albert will start at left tackle in Sunday's season opener at Washington.

A Pro-Bowl selection in 2013, Albert broke the news first Wednesday in the locker room, and head coach Joe Philbin later confirmed it. Albert, who tore the ACL and MCL in his right knee in November, is among Miami's best players, regardless of position, and should help the offensive line greatly.

It was unknown prior to Wednesday whether a knee injury would keep him from playing against the Redskins.

The news on Albert wasn't the only change on the line. Right guard Jamil Douglas will start the opener at Washington, which is somewhat of a surprise considering Billy Turner held that job for almost all of training camp and preseason.

Douglas, the rookie fourth-round pick from Arizona State, spent a lot of time with the first team in the preseason finale against Tampa Bay and that performance, coupled with a few penalties by Turner in the preseason, might have sealed the deal.

Notes: Cornerback Brice McCain will start on the right side, opposite Brent Grimes, in the opener at Washington. McCain, who is likely to move to the slot in the nickel package, was battling Jamar Taylor for the starting job but it appeared Taylor had locked it up until sustaining a thigh injury late in preseason. Taylor was limited in Wednesday's practice. his role remains unclear because he won't start in the regular defense. There's a good chance Taylor plays boundary cornerback in the nickel defense with Brice McCain moving inside to the slot.

Left tackle Jason Fox (concussion) didn't practice Wednesday, meaning he's practiced once in the last two weeks. Fox was the starter for most of training camp and preseason while Albert recovered from his knee injury. ... Wide receiver DeVante Parker (foot) had full participation in Wednesday's practice and seems ready to play in Sunday's opener. Parker, the first-round pick from Louisville, missed all of training camp and preseason except for the finale against Tampa Bay recovering from offseason surgery. Wide receiver Kenny Stills, who missed most of training camp and preseason with a calf injury, will start in Sunday's opener at Washington ahead of Rishard Matthews, who seemed to have an outstanding training camp and preseason.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis - Prob Sun

Hilton will likely play Sunday against the Bills after recovering from a concussion.

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Todd Gurley, St. Louis - Out Sun

Gurley is recovering well from knee surgery but will not play Sunday against the Seahawks.

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Carroll on Seahawks holdout Chancellor: 'He's not playing'

With Kam Chancellor still holding out from the Seattle Seahawks, coach Pete Carroll ruled the safety out of the team's season opener.

"He's not here so he's not playing. That's it," Carroll said at practice Wednesday.

Cornerback Richard Sherman said, according to Sports Radio KJR, "Everybody's disappointed. You expect to have him."

Sherman added that he doesn't know when Chancellor might rejoin the Seahawks but that his teammates understand his position.

NFL Network's Albert Breer reported that Chancellor could become the first player to have a holdout drag into the regular season under the current collective bargaining agreement -- not including quarterback Carson Palmer, who "retired" before he was traded to the Oakland Raiders.

Chancellor's current contract runs through the 2017 season and is set to pay him $4.55 million this year. However, Chancellor already faces fines of more than $1.5 million for the holdout.

Chancellor, 27, was Seattle's fifth-round draft pick out of Virginia Tech in 2010. After playing every game as a reserve during his rookie season, he started all but three games over the next four years, making the Pro Bowl three times.

The Seahawks open the season Sunday in St. Louis against the Rams.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CFL TRENDS

Sunday, September 13

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OTTAWA (5 - 4) at BRITISH COLUMBIA (4 - 5) - 9/13/2015, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OTTAWA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 2 seasons.
OTTAWA is 16-32 ATS (-19.2 Units) in road games since 1996.
OTTAWA is 16-32 ATS (-19.2 Units) in road lined games since 1996.
OTTAWA is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
OTTAWA is 2-1 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 2-1 straight up against OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CFL TRENDS

Sunday, September 13

4:00 PM
OTTAWA vs. BRITISH COLUMBIA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Ottawa's last 6 games
Ottawa is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing British Columbia
British Columbia is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of British Columbia's last 24 games

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

GAMBLERS DATA

Bengals -3

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DON ANTHONY

10* Bonus Play OF THE DAY
Oakland Raiders +3.5

Right off the bat, this line looks fishy. The Raiders have been bad for over a decade and they are only catching a FG to a playoff team...seems like a trap to me. I believe the Raiders have a great chance of winning this game outright. First off, I like the move to get Del Rio for their head coach. Also, this team is very under-rated at certain areas. Derek Carr has serious potential and I believe this kid is going to be very good, especially with the HUGE addition of Amari Cooper. This Oakland club also has a tenacious D, with Justin Tuck, Dan Williams, Mario Edwards, and Charles Woodson leading the way.
Besides Jay Cutler, I think Andy Dalton may be the most over paid, bad QB in the NFL. I can see him having trouble today with this Oakland defense and this place should be rocking, as the fans know this team has a good chance to move to Los Angeles. Reminds me a bit of Sacramento in the NBA. Those fans really came out to support their club, even though they were still a bad squad. Look for the Oakland Raiders to give the Bengals all they can handle and for you teaser players out there, this is a solid option.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Joe Gavazzi

Green Bay Packers -6.5

Look for this favorite to dominate the point of attack, control matters overland and rush their way to a dominating victory in this week’s contest. Here is this week’s winner. Green Bay Packers (-6-) at Chicago Bears 1:00 ET Divisional rivals, the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears, kick off the first Sunday of the 2015 NFL season. These two franchises have a long and storied history against each other. Recently, however, the pendulum has swung the way of the Green Bay Packers. Last year on this field, Green Bay won this matchup by a score of 38-17. They recorded that victory in spite of the fact that the Bears outrushed the Packers 235-56 (highly unusual). The rematch came in Green Bay on November 9th; the yardage swung the way of the Packers, 455-311, while the score was even more lopsided at 55-14. Much has changed, especially for the Chicago Bears since the 2014 season, but tonight I expect the results between these two to look very similar to last season. This is the one game on the card where one NFL team is most likely to crush the other. In the last two seasons, the Bears were led by HC Marc Trestman, an offensive guru who made his mark on that side of the ball by coaching in the CFL. Yet last year, the Bears could average just 20 PPG on only 327 YPG, with a running attack that averaged just 90 RYPG. In short, Trestman took them from a team who was 10-6 SU in 2012, and led them to seasons of 8-8 and 5-11, with an 11-21 ATS record. This season, the Bears have hired former Denver HC John Fox. Unlike the departed Trestman, Fox had a highly successful career with the Denver Broncos. In the most recent three seasons, the Fox coached Broncos were 40-13 SU. Apparently blood is thicker than water, as John Elway hired former teammate Gary Kubiak to lead the Broncs. Fox, in turn, took the job in Chicago, and along with him brought respected DC Vick Fanglio, who most recently guided the 49ers defense to a trio of consecutive NFC Championship games. Respected OC Adam Gase rounds out the triumvirate. There is little doubt that eventually this trio will return the Bears to their winning ways. In the meantime, they are counting on QB Cutler to lead the offense. That is not necessarily a good thing, as the Bears have a 45-71 ATS mark with Cutler as their starter, including 21-36 ATS if installed as underdog. Fox brings a solid history of NFL success along with him, including 50-29 SU in Division games. In addition, game 1 Division home revengers have had a solid history of over 67% recently. But the Bears’ fundamentals are far from in place at this point in time. Some may believe that is belied by the 3-1 SA preseason, including a 24-0 shutout in NFL-X game 4. But they are a long way from being competitive with the Packers. Green Bay head man McCarthy has a solid history of success since 2006 with the Packers. In the last four seasons, Green Bay is 48-21 SU. It can definitely be argued they should have beaten Seattle in the playoffs last year, and ascended to the Super Bowl. That will leave this team hungry for their opener, with the lone rejoinder being that Seattle revenge looms on the horizon next week. It is unlikely there is much drop off in an offense that averaged 30 PPG and 384 YPG last season. QB Rodgers is one of the best in the game, and returns in full health this year. Even without Jordy Nelson, this will be a potent Green Bay attack. The combination of McCarthy and QB Rodgers has been lethal against Division rivals. McCarthy is 38-18 ATS in Division play; since Rodgers has joined the Pack, that record is 29-12 ATS vs Division foes. That includes 12-3 SU ATS against the Bears, including 7-1 ATS recently in this series by an average score of 32-18. Until HC Fox and Co turns things around for the Bears, can only see more of the same in the first game of the season where each team brings full focus. Make this your NFL CRUSHER OF THE WEEK as history continues.


St. Louis Rams +4

The Seattle Seahawks visit the St Louis Rams for this Divisional rivalry to open the 2015 NFL season for each team. It is the first of a brutal travel schedule, which finds the Seahawks flying at least two time zones east, no fewer than 6 times this NFL season. They will also be meeting an opponent who has caused them fits at this site in recent seasons. Last year, St Louis won on this field 28-26, barely lost 14-9 the season before that, and saw St Louis record a 19-13 victory in 2012. Yet, everyone is expecting this two time Super Bowl team to advance for a third consecutive time to the pen ultimate game in the NFL this season. That perception is backed by public money, which has forced this line up to Seattle -4 from what this bureau considers to be an overlay from the opening number of -3. The reality is, not only has this been historically a very tough matchup for the Seahawks, but that this MAY ALREADY BE THE BEGINNING OF THE END OF A BURGEONING SEATTLE DYNASTY. Will the Seahawk franchise ever recover from the call by HC Carroll to pass the football from inside the 2 yard line with the Super Bowl on the line? Everyone in America would have simply handed the ball of to Marshawn Lynch, three times if necessary. Now QB Wilson has shattered confidence, and Lynch is left wondering “what if?” As if the mental issues were not enough for Seattle, they are now dealing with key contract holdouts and OL issues which troubled them through much of the preseason. In addition, there is that matter of a look ahead to Green Bay next week, a perennial NFC Super Bowl challenger themselves. In the last three years, Seattle has gone 42-14 SU, while in the last four years HC Carroll has led them to a 46-24 ATS mark. Further supporting the reality of this selection, is that game 1 Super Bowl losers are just 2-13 SU ATS. Going hand in glove with that, is that game 1 road teams in this price range who had more than 12 victories in the previous season have fallen flat on their face 75% of the time. Adding to the perception of the outcome of this game is the fact that St Louis has not been a greater than .500 team in the last decade. Last year, the anemic offense could average just 20 PPG on 314 YPG; that has been par for the course in the three year tenure of HC Jeff Fisher. In hopes of breaking that mold, the Rams lured former Philly QB Nick Foles in the deal that traded QBs, sending Sam Bradford to Philly. Knowing that St Louis was 0-4 SU ATS in preseason play only adds fuel to our perception/reality play. A solid vote for history as the Rams win outright against the Seattle team who is about to fall from their Pinnacle of success.


New York Giants +6

The first NFL Sunday Night Football game is a matchup that features a storied NFL East rivalry between the New York Giants and the Dallas Cowboys. These teams met twice last season, with Dallas winning and covering by a score of 31-21 on this field, and following it up four weeks later with a 31-28 victory at New York, barely failing to cover the 4 point impost. That makes it four straight over the New Yorkers, with three of those victories by 5 or less points. You can see the precedence for an exciting game once again tonight. The Giants have gone through some tough times in recent seasons, falling from 13 to 9 to 7 to 6 wins since 2011. Though the offense perked up a bit from 18 to 24 points last year, there was a precipitous defensive decline as the G Men allowed 43 more yards per game. Despite their demise, the Giants will be buoyed by their 3-1 SU ATS finish to close the 2014 season. Remember, this is a team just four years removed from their Super Bowl victory over New England. But with three non-playoff seasons, consider 12th year HC Coughlin to be directly on the hot seat. In recalling past success, Coughlin rehired DC Spagnuolo to improve the leaky defense. Of equal concern is keeping QB Manning erect, as his declining numbers have been directly proportional to the pressure placed on him. It is a chic selection to back the Cowboys for yet another playoff appearance. The Achilles heel, their defense, made dramatic strides in 2014, from 27 to 22 PPG and 415 to 361 YPG. It was the reason why a trio of 8-8 SU seasons turned into a 13-5 SU campaign. Despite the loss of RB Murray, the Cowboys again figure to be potent, with QB Romo, who had the best passer rating in the NFL last season. In the final analysis, however, this has simply not been their role. QB Romo has a mark of 22-36 ATS as home chalk, while since HC Garrett has been on board the last 4+ seasons, he has 15-27 ATS record as chalk. A final note is in order regarding the total in this game. Primetime games last season went 36-14 OVER. No surprise if that holds true to form this year, as the last five in this series have seen the teams’ total (in reverse order) 59, 52, 45, 67, and 53 points. All but one of those will get OVER backers paid.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPORTS WAGERS

Detroit +130 over SAN DIEGO

Philip Rivers is already 34 years old and entering his 13th season in San Diego. Rivers was great in the Chargers' first eight games last season, posting a 20-to-5 TD-to-INT ratio but he threw only 11 TDs to 13 INTs in his final eight games. Rivers is good but as we saw last year, he’s only as good as his offensive line. Frankly, we don’t have a lot of confidence in their ability to protect him.Last year, San Diego finished 30th in rushing yards per game and 31st at 3.4 yards per carry. Again, we go back to the offensive line because that’s where running the ball starts. If Rivers can’t get his running game or protection in gear, it’s likely going to be another 7-9, 8-8 or 9-7 year for the Chargers. They’ve been stuck on that for years. In the end, the Bolts are average on defense (or below), average on offense (or below), average on both lines, average at the RB and WR’s positons. We’ll pass spotting points with them for now.

Meanwhile, the Lions are anything but average. The Lions bring a solid defense that ranked top-10 or better in nearly every category last year. The loss of Ndamukong Suh won't make the Lions any better but this was always much more than one player. With a backfield that regressed and the spotty health of Calvin Johnson, the Lions were at a big disadvantage for Jim Caldwell's first season. Joe Lombardi came from New Orleans to lend some Saints-style flair to the offense but that was undercut with Megatron on the mend. Golden Tate proved a tremendous pick-up though and was a huge benefit for a team that had long looked for a suitable #2 wideout. Now the pieces are in place for a great season. With a healthy crew and the potential of a strong running game, Matthew Stafford is in line for a huge year. What you are going to read about or hear about is Stafford’s inability to perform when it matters most. Stafford is 3-32 straight up against teams with a winning record. Even worse, he is 0-18 against winning teams on the road. That has many backing down from playing this pooch but not us. We say it’s an anomaly. A guy like Stafford with that offense is too good to be losing at that ridiculous pace. That’s a Tim Tebow number and over time it figures to even itself out. That time has come for the Lions, as they are vastly superior to the Chargers in every way and we get them at a sweet price.

HOUSTON -1 over Kansas City

In the first week of the season the market does not have a lot to go on. It’s unique because there is great anticipation and the public has been able to look at the lines for weeks. The perception of what a team may or may not be comes from last year’s results and some reports from the last month of preseason games. The market’s perception of said team is something we can attempt to take early advantage of. Week 1 NFL lines are posted after the draft in June. Prior to the preseason schedule, the Texans were sitting as a 2-point choice over Kansas City but that line has dropped to -1. We suspect it may even drop to a pick-em. The reaction is from Kansas City going 4-0 in the preseason. That’s nice but it means nothing. The NFL has quickly become a QB league and the Chiefs don’t have a good one. They can compete because of what figures to be a good defense but on the road with a weak QB puts them up against it almost every week they're on the road. It should also be noted that K.C. has the Broncos up next at home in prime time this coming Thursday. Last year in a similar spot the Chiefs opened the year in Tennessee as a small favorite and got whacked, 26-10. Last year, they also had the Broncos on deck in Week 2.

The Texans were saddled with quarterback problems last year and now that they have settled on Brian Hoyer (assuming he really is the answer), they are now facing at least the first month without Arian Foster who was the glue that kept the Texans from complete implosion in 2014. This will be the first time in 13 years that Andre Johnson won't be playing and they've tried to replace him with Cecil Shorts and rookie Jaelen Strong. Running backs are perhaps the most replaceable players on a team. It wasn’t that way years ago but today it is. Alfred Blue figures to be an adequate fill-in and there’s actually a lot to like on this Houston team with J.J. Watt leading the defense. Still, public perception is everything and the market sees this team losing a lot of key players and having a journeyman QB running the show. The public is not entirely wrong about that but Houston is one of the better defensive teams in the league, Hoyer has shown he’s capable of moving the chains and the Texans are really not much different than the Chiefs when you break it all down. What we know for sure is that K.C. has a lot more public appeal right now and the market has responded. That’s a false reaction that we’ll look to exploit.

WASHINGTON +4 over Miami

Miami is this year’s sleeper team for many. Some have them winning the division or at the very least challenging the mighty Patriots for it. The signing of Ndamukong Suh was one of the more publicized ones during the off-season. The Dolphins are on everyone’s radar. By contrast, the Redskins are on everyone’s fade list. They are the NFC’s most dysfunctional group and have been a total embarrassment for years. The Redskins biggest off-season news was that they have relegated RG3 to back-up status in favor of Kirk Cousins. Combine the market’s perception of these two teams and what you get is an inflated price on the dog.

Let us break it down for you a little more. One player cannot change everything. Suh helps, but the Dolphins have been mired in mediocrity for years. This is Coach Joe Philbin’s fourth year with the Fish. He’s a game under .500 and has had more talent on previous teams. Ryan Tannehill has shown flashes of brilliance over the years but has not been able to take that next step. Now that he signed a 96 million contract extension, there will be even more pressure on him to perform. Tannehill himself is not playing for a contract. That can’t be beneficial. The Dolphins have big holes in their offensive line and in their depth. Frankly, we’re just not as sold as most on this being “the year”.

Washington has finished in last place in the NFC East in six of the last seven years and they're favored to finish last again this year. Owner Dan Snyder may have finally gotten sick of being known as the league’s biggest idiot owner so he brought in a new general manager in Scot McCloughan. McCloughan has a strong track record of finding winning talent so any moves he has made or makes in the future has to be considered positive. To the great benefit of the team, Kirk Cousins is the starter and Gruden is throwing his confidence behind him. The fourth round pick in the same year that Griffin was taken now looks like much less of a head scratcher of a selection. Cousins has never been more than a spot substitute so far, though he started five games last year and threw at least two scores in all but one. After the turmoil of the summer, the Skins can finally get down to running the offense as it was designed and Cousins is the man for the job.

Washington’s stock has bottomed out. It only covered five games last year in 16 tries. When the oddsmakers put out this number, they were very aware of the action that would be coming in on the Dolphins. They are not in the business of giving away money. The market is hammering away on the Fish here. That’s a red flag to us. This number is up to +4 at some joints and could hit 4½ by Sunday. Teams that flame out the previous year against the spread almost always have big bounce back years (ATS) because of the inflated prices you get on them. All of that applies to the ‘Skins.

NOTE: This game is on our slate for a wager but we’re going to wait on this game, as we expect a better number by Sunday, where at that point we’ll either play it or pass.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wunderdog

Kansas City +1.5

Houston has injury problems with star RB Adrian Foster, a key cog on this offense, and they let WR Andre Johnson walk in the offseason. Foster won't rush himself back from his groin injury, saying he needs to be "as close to 100 percent" as possible before playing in a game. Making matters more unsettling is new QB Brian Hoyer, a journeyman who last season had 12 TDs and 13 picks with Cleveland. Houston has been overvalued at home by Vegas oddsmakers for a while, on a 5-11 ATS run at home. Into town comes Kansas City, well coached and balanced for Andy Reid. Reid prefers a ball-control attack and has one of the best running backs in the game in Jamaal Charles, averaging 5.5 yards per carry for his career. The Chiefs offense in 2014 produced an embarrassing statistic: For the entire season, quarterback Alex Smith did not throw a single touchdown pass to a wide receiver. They will be better as they added Jeremy Maclin. Reid is 4-0 against Houston, winning the last meeting two years ago, 17-16. The Chiefs are 8-3 ATS against the AFC and 5-1 ATS in September, and when these teams clash the road team is 5-1 against the spread.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CFL Betting Notes - Week 12
By David Schwab

The Labor Day Weekend marked the official start of the push towards this year’s CFL Grey Cup Playoffs and British Columbia got the ball rolling last Thursday with an unexpected 25-16 upset of Montreal as a five-point road underdog.

In the first game of three home-and-home series on the CFL’s Week 11 schedule, Saskatchewan finally snapped this season’s nine-game straight-up losing streak with a 37-19 victory against Winnipeg as a 4 ½-point home favorite on Sunday. To open Monday’s action, Hamilton jumped all over Toronto 42-12 as an 8 ½-point home favorite and Calgary grinded-out a 16-7 victory against Edmonton as a four-point home favorite to close things out.

Sunday, Sept. 13

Ottawa RedBlacks (5-4 SU, 6-3 ATS) vs. British Columbia Lions (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS)
Point-spread: BC -3 ½
Total: 50 ½

Game Overview

The RedBlacks remain in the thick of the East Division race after winning just two games last season as a first-year expansion team. Coming off a bye week, veteran CFL quarterback Henry Burris has proven that he still has some gas in the tank with 2,504 passing yards and 10 touchdown throws while completing 68.1 percent of his 313 attempts. Defensive end Jamaal Westerman leads the team in sacks with eight, which is also tied for most in the league.

BC quarterback Travis Lulay left last Thursday’s game in the first quarter with a knee injury and John Beck made the most of the opportunity by tossing two scores as part of a 14-for 22 performance that helped pace the upset. The Lions’ defense intercepted Montreal quarterback Tanner Marsh five times to help seal the win. BC is still just 2-4 ATS over its last six games.

Betting Trends

Ottawa won the first game in this season’s series on July 4 with a 27-10 victory as a 2 ½-point home underdog. BC won both meetings last season SU and the total has now stayed UNDER in all three games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Week 1 Essentials
By Tony Mejia

The season is here. Let’s rejoice and get into thought process mode on these Week 1 morsels:

Sunday, Sept. 14

Green Bay at Chicago: With Jordy Nelson out for the year, expect Randall Cobb to make good on his vow to play through shoulder trouble, but he isn’t likely to be 100 percent. The Packers offensive line has also had health issues over the past month, so there’s a chance they’ll be vulnerable. The Bears have beaten their arch rival in only three of the last 15 games since 2008 and haven’t won in Soldier Field in five seasons, but they’ve never had John Fox at the helm. Whether that changes anything remains to be seen, but it’s probably not great that Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay hung 43 on the only occasion in Fox’s Denver tenure that they faced off.

Kansas City at Houston: The Chiefs were perfect in the preseason and actually completed passes to receivers who physically reached the end zone. With Jamaal Charles liking the look of this year’s offensive line, he’s going to get a great litmus test as to just how good they are facing Houston’s front. Jadeveon Clowney is set to be out there after missing the entire preseason, so if he’s set on making up for lost time, the Texans are going to be remembered for more than Hard Knocks this season. Their personnel is sublime.

Cleveland at N.Y. Jets: Browns head coach Mike Pettine worked as the Jets defensive coordinator for years under Rex Ryan and is going to be reliant on that side of the ball if he’s to have a victorious return. We can’t count on Geno Smith to complete a few passes to Joe Haden, so this one is actually wide open. Veteran QBs Josh McCown and Ryan Fitzpatrick will try to avoid miscues while fully aware that there are an abundance of sharks in the sea. Every pass will be up for grabs, so it will be interesting to see who throws more. Prediction: the team that passes it most will lose.

Indianapolis at Buffalo: Newly acquired RB LeSean McCoy is supposed to see his first game action since the preseason opener, but if that hamstring is not 100 percent and he tries to gut it out, this might wind up being a really long night for the home team. Of course, it could swing the other way completely and expose the Colts as a team on the decline due to management’s inability to build an offensive line worthy of protecting Andrew Luck. The Bills are definitely built to take advantage and Ryan is going to have tricks in store.

Miami at Washington: Backup QB Robert Griffin III might be glad he’s on the sidelines since Ndamakong Suh will be roaming the field for the Dolphins in a game that counts for the first time. Since he bothered to be pretty great in preseason, it’s a safe bet Kirk Cousins will be hunted on every snap. He’s going to have to avoid long-developing plays and give Jay Gruden exactly what he wants, a game manager who can keep a team on task and make plays from the pocket. Since there won’t be a hostile crowd to deal with -- at least initially – Cousins has a chance to prove he’s the right choice after all.

Carolina at Jacksonville: Losing Kelvin Benjamin threatened to spoil the Panthers plans before the season even started since they have no one to adequately replace him, so we’ll see if Devin Funchess or the newly acquired Kevin Norwood can pay immediate dividends for Cam Newton. Another worry in this sneaky tough road game lies in how Blake Bortles looked in the preseason, clearly exhibiting a firmer grasp of what it takes to succeed at this level. Of course, it’s a different world now that we’re playing for keeps, so we’ll see how he responds here. It would lessen his burden if DT Star Lotulelei sits, but that looks like it’s headed for being a game-time decision.

Seattle at St. Louis: The Legion of Boom isn’t the same without Earl Thomas, so news that he’s been practicing without restrictions for well over a week means a team that’s one bad decision away from being two-time defending champs is nearly whole. Safety Kam Chancellor remains a holdout, so Nick Foles won’t get the full experience, but the new Rams quarterback will be facing the NFL’s elite secondary for the first time. He also won’t have No. 1 running back Todd Gurley, who isn’t quite ready post-ACL tear, so this will really be some coming out party if he pulls a home upset.

New Orleans at Arizona: The Cardinals welcomed back Carson Palmer for a few preseason cameos and he’s displayed a pretty deep ball and an ability to move the offense. With Drew Brees not locking in on Jimmy Graham, won’t he be better? With Brees not having Graham to lock in on in the red zone, won’t he be less productive? We’re getting a road game and a terrific defense with which to start finding out.

Detroit at San Diego: Effectively replacing Suh hinges on how healthy and prepared Haloti Ngata is after missing all of training camp healing up a hamstring and getting refreshed following his trade. If he’s still a force at 31 and can help replace all the beef the Lions lost up front, there’s a formidable team around him. The Chargers couldn’t get their ground game off the ground all spring and go into the season opener hoping Melvin Gordon was just saving his energy over the past month.

Tennessee at Tampa Bay: Let’s not do the thing where we let this first game between Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota dictate who gets to be deemed better for the next decade. It’s simply bragging rights. Winston has better receivers. Mariota has the better o-line. It’s one game though. Game on.

Cincinnati at Oakland: The Raiders look improved. That much is clear. How much better they are will hinge on how well they fare at home in what looks like their final season playing in the bay area. Because of that late run they went on last season, Oakland has a three-game winning streak there, which is saying something since they had lost nine straight. The Bengals have to make sure their prosperity doesn’t continue, because it’s time for them to take that next step forward as an elite team. It would be a bad look to lose this one. No other road team is under more pressure to win Week 1.

Baltimore at Denver: The Ravens arrive in Denver unsure if rookie Breshad Perriman will be available, which means it could be the Steve Smith show. He’s definitely competent, but putting it all on his shoulders is a lot to ask. Peyton Mannning no longer has the burden all on his now that Gary Kubiak’s zone blocking system is in place, so we’ll see how he balances a reduced role while maintaining his rhythm for when they need his arm.

N.Y. Giants at Dallas: The last of the day’s three divisional battles will test which of these NFC East powers can be ready to play shorthanded. New York’s Victor Cruz isn’t likely to play, Jason Pierre-Paul is finally ready to show his face after his July 4 fun with fireworks, and there are other Giants banged up. The Cowboys have to survive without Greg Hardy and Rolando McClain for four games and Orlando Scandrick the rest of the season. Sean Lee and Morris Claiborne just got back into the daily grind, so it’s on Eli Manning to make sure the Giants take advantage of an early opportunity to turn around the franchise’s momentum.

Monday, Sept. 15

Philadelphia at Atlanta: Head coach Chip Kelly has handed the keys to his Eagles exclusively to Sam Bradford, so the mission to keep him upright begins. Philly can fly high if he’s healthy and would be grounded by Mark Sanchez if he’s not. Bradford could get a valuable weapon back if TE Zach Ertz is available, while the Falcons have Roddy White attempting to make it back from elbow surgery. Atlanta is also in search of an offensive line combination that can look better than what it showed in preseason, but is certainly cutting it close. New coach Dan Quinn won both home preseason games and wants this one badly.

Minnesota at San Francisco: It’s fitting that we have to wait until this last contest to finally see Adrian Peterson. The Vikings have kept him under wraps and you imagine him locked in a hyperbaric chamber at night, getting those legs ready to rush for 2,500 yards. The NFL’s other new head coach, Jim Tomsula, is also a home underdog opening on a Monday night, but bears no scrutiny since all eyes are on Colin Kaepernick and his expected improvement.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Line Watch: Don't wait for Colts to become field goal faves
By AAA SPORTS

Each week during the pro football season, Art Aronson of AAA Sports looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later and and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills (+2.5)

The Bills apparently are going to be the first team in NFL history to try to win a game without a quarterback, going with Tyrod Taylor and basically telling the world that Buffalo will be running the ball 70 percent of the time and hoping its defense gets it done. It’s no surprise, then, that they are home dogs in the opener.

The Colt defense hasn’t undergone a major upgrade and was merely mediocre last season, but it won’t have to be overpowering in this one. Assuming even an average effort from Indianapolis’ offense, the Colts should be able to cover 2.5. Good idea to get in before it becomes a field-goal line.

Spread to wait on

Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons (+2.5)

The line in this one has bounced around from a pick ‘em to Philadelphia -3, depending on where you shop, and the feeling is that it will not go off at 2.5 on the early Monday night kickoff. Atlanta basically devoted its draft to defense after several dreadful performances last season, but the upgrades may need a month or more to get comfortable.

The Falcons also have a new coaching staff, which was mandated after the team lost 22 of its last 32 games. In Philadelphia, Chip Kelly is constantly adapting and not afraid to trade away stars. He now has a new QB (Sam Bradford) running the show as last year’s starter, Mark Sanchez, is relegated to No. 2.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapping Tips for Week 1
By Micah Roberts

As the first week of the NFL season approaches, I thought it would be a good idea to share a few betting tips to help make your season the most profitable it can be and I’ve enlisted the help from a professional bettor who routinely beat the numbers offered at my sports books over the years.

Jeff Whitelaw is one of the most respected bettors at all sports books in Las Vegas, just because he consistently wins, and it helps that he‘s always in a great mood and smiling. He does it for a living. When he made his wager, no matter the amount, I always respected his opinion and moved the number his way regardless of what kind of risk I had on the game. One of the things I really respected about him was his integrity. If a line was ever posted wrong in the system, he would always come to the counter and tell us rather than pouncing on the error with a wager.

Jeff isn’t going to share his entire strategy for being a successful bettor, but he’s offered some useful tips that should be considered whenever betting this NFL season.

“You always want to try and get the best number and when playing these isolated Thursday, Sunday and Monday night games, if you like the favorite, bet it early and if you like the underdog, bet it closer to kickoff. The public has so much power in these games. That applies with the total too. Bet the OVER as early as possible and the UNDER late.”

However, betting the UNDER in night games hasn’t been a good proposition lately no matter when getting the number, as Whitelaw explains.

“Over the past few seasons, the OVER has been routinely hitting in those isolated games and most of it is because we’ve always got good teams playing. You’re not getting Tennessee playing Jacksonville all the time, you’re getting Green Bay, New England, Dallas, Philadelphia and Denver, teams with good offenses.”

One of the biggest mistakes casual NFL bettors make is to bet against a team that just had a bad showing the week before, and Whitelaw uses that to his advantage.

“Don’t overreact to what you saw last. A lot of times when a team gets blown out, they come back the next week after a hard week of practice and play very well. You may not think they’re good, but they’re motivated and coached well to respond.”

In NFL, every team has talented players and any team on any given Sunday can beat anyone, which is why Whitelaw also employs another betting strategy.

“Taking double-digit dogs, getting +10 or higher, has been a good play for me over the past five years.”

Whitelaw also offers advice at what to do when a number is below 3.

“If I like an underdog that is +2.5, and there is no way to get +3, I’d rather take the money-line on them at +125 or +130. It’s very rare that the spread comes into play in those situations and in the long run you should come out ahead with the plus-money.”

Whitelaw said he likes to side with divisional home 'dogs “because the teams are so familiar with each other.”

He also has some teaser advice to follow.

“The two-team teaser is a good deal, but you need to be smart about it. Don’t tease -3 to +3, you want to cross over key numbers like 3, 4, 6, and 7. You want to take -8 down to -2 or +2 to +8.”

Books have been routinely adjusting their two-team NFL teaser pay charts over the years. It wasn’t long ago when you could get EVEN money, but now the norm around town is -130, and that’s only because it’s been a constant loser for the books.

Why is that?

Well, you are getting 6-points added to the most sound ratings of all the sports. Teasers in college football, the NBA and college basketball are not good deals because the ratings on a nightly basis are so volatile. But the NFL rating are tight and reliable. You can win more often by getting those 6-points. And why wouldn’t you want to play a betting options that the books lose on. They don’t lose much, so the areas they do should be attractive to all. That includes straight bets as well.

I don’t recommend parlay plays off-the-board other than the two-teamer because it‘s the only true value on the pay chart. I think the best value on them occurs when pairing a side and total of the same game together because if you’ve handicapped a side you like, chances are you found out how the team will win -- either by a high-scoring offense or a low-scoring defensive battle.

If you like the Patriots on Thursday night, if correct, chances are the game goes OVER. If you like the Bills on Sunday, chances are, if correct, the game stay UNDER. For certain teams, if one thing happens the other will too, and that’s a much better proposition at 13/5 odds (Bet $100 to win $260) than needing to win both bets of a two-teamer in two separate games.

Overall, stay consistent with your wagers. Don’t get too greedy, don’t over bet because a certain team ’can’t lose’, and treat it like a business. Yes, have fun, but the goal is to win. And you’ll win more by staying conservative with straight bets, playing some two-team teasers and occasionally betting a two-team parlay.

Best of luck to all of you in your 2015 NFL conquests.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sunday's Top Action

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (0-0) at BUFFALO BILLS (0-0)

Line: Indianapolis -3, Total: 46

Andrew Luck brings his arsenal of new, albeit aging, toys north on Sunday as his Colts meet the Bills led by off-season acquisition LeSean McCoy.

Indianapolis is a trendy Super Bowl pick and with the addition of some Hall of Fame-caliber veterans, it's easy to see why. Former 49ers RB Frank Gore is reunited with his teammate from Miami and former Texans WR Andre Johnson. The seasoned duo will join an already formidable offensive unit containing T.Y. Hilton and MVP candidate Andrew Luck.

Buffalo QB Tyrod Taylor is the latest in the long line of offensively challenged quarterbacks to take the field for this franchise that welcomed in new head coach Rex Ryan. He'll oversee an already stout defensive unit, as Buffalo led the NFL in sacks (54)

These clubs haven’t faced each other since Luck’s rookie season of 2012 when Indy downed Buffalo 20-13. Luck was very average in that contest; completing just 54% of his passes while throwing for 1 TD and 1 INT. The Colts are 8-1 ATS since 2013 when the total is between 42.5 and 49, as well as being 25-11 ATS as a road favorite of three points or less since 1992. Indy is also 6-0 ATS when it allows 75 to 100 rushing yards over the past two seasons while Buffalo has totaled between 75 and 100 rushing yards five times over that stretch.

The good news for Bills bettors is that they are 35-18 ATS in home games when they gain 300 to 350 total yards since 1992, and the Colts do not boast an elite defense. On the injury front, LeSean McCoy remains listed as Questionable for Sunday with a lingering hamstring issue while run-stuffing DT Marcell Dareus will miss the game serving a suspension. Hilton (concussion) is looking good for the matchup, as he's been upgraded to probable.

Luck led the Colts' offense to some impressive rankings in 2014 including the No. 1 passing offense, No. 3 total offense, and No. 6 scoring offense in the NFL. Luck was so good that Indy was one of two playoff teams to rank in the bottom 14 in the league in rushing offense, finishing 22nd (Arizona 31st). However, he will have his hands full this weekend in Orchard Park as the Bills bring back a defensive unit that finished top-5 in every major category last season. Luck has also faced off against new Bills head coach Rex Ryan just one time in his career, a 35-9 Jets victory in 2012. In that matchup Luck threw for 280 yards, but completed only half his passes with 0 TD and 2 INT. That was one of just two games in Luck’s career that his offense didn’t score a touchdown, as he posted the 3rd-lowest passer rating (51.3) of his 48-game career.

New Bills RB LeSean McCoy will look to give the Bills the offensive punch they've been lacking for years and with the departure of Bills' legend Fred Jackson, McCoy will be the main man in Buffalo. Since 2010, McCoy's first year as a starter, no back in the league has as many rushing yards as his 6,155 and with Taylor under center; McCoy should have no shortage of opportunities. Taylor will frequently look for top WR Sammy Watkins and newcomer WR Percy Harvin and TE Charles Clay.

Defensively, this unit is in great shape. Last year it led the NFL in 3rd-down defense (33%) and only the Chiefs and Seahawks allowed fewer passing yards in the league.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 1
By JASON LOGAN

Each week, Jason Logan breaks down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule and setting your daily fantasy lineup. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 1:

Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills (+2.5, 45)

Colts’ rushing defense vs. Bills’ run-heavy playbook

Rex Ryan isn’t keeping his offensive gameplan under wraps for his debut as the Bills head coach. Ryan pretty much tipped his pitch when he announced Tyrod Taylor as his starting quarterback, meaning expect a lot of rushing plays from Buffalo as they try to control the clock and keep Andrew Luck off the field. New running back LeSean McCoy is ready to roll and looking to do similar damage to the Colts defense as he did last season with the Eagles.

McCoy and former running mate Darren Sproles torched Indianapolis in Week 2, totaling 105 yards and two touchdowns on the ground while adding another 175 yards on catch-and-runs from short looks and screen passes. The Colts suffered a similar fate against Steelers RB LeVeon Bell in Week 8, giving up 92 yards rushing and 56 yards through the air to Pittsburgh’s versatile rusher. Indianapolis, which gave up 113.4 rushing yards per game and 4.3 yards per carry in 2014, also hasn’t faced a true dual-threat QB since Week 5 of the 2013 season when Seattle QB Russel Wilson tacked on 102 rushing yards to his 210 passing gains and two touchdowns.

Daily fantasy watch: RB LeSean McCoy, QB Tyrod Taylor

Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos (-4, 48.5)

Ravens’ Week 1 conditioning vs. Altitude at Mile High

The Broncos hold one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL, with the thin air at Sports Authority Field challenging the conditioning of visiting teams. Even in the middle of the schedule, when teams are in game shape, the altitude can leave opponents sucking wind in the final frame of the game. That impact is felt even more in Week 1 of the NFL season, when teams are in camp/preseason shape but not yet in peak physical condition. If you’ve ever player high-level sports, you know the only thing that can really get you into game shape is playing games.

Denver has dominated visitors in its home openers, losing just once in front of the Mile High faithful in the past 15 seasons. And the team uses this to their advantage, with Peyton Manning putting his foot down on the gas pedal and forcing opponents to pick up the pace with his no-huddle attack. The Broncos new offense, under Gary Kubiak, is blending that up-tempo style with his renowned smash-mouth zone-blocking rush, which should leave rivals running on empty. Baltimore has been in this spot before, losing a 49-27 Week 1 matchup in Denver as defending Super Bowl champs in 2013, buckling for 35 points the second half.

Daily fantasy watch: QB Peyton Manning, RB C.J. Anderson, TE Owen Daniels

Cincinnati Bengals at Oakland Raiders (+3.5, 43.5)

Bengals’ kick return talent vs. Raiders’ weak kick coverage

The Raiders had numerous faults in 2014, so singling out just one is like saying Al Davis had ugly teeth. However, for the purpose of this mismatch, Oakland’s trouble with kick coverage is the main culprit. The team allowed opponents to average 32.5 return yards on kickoffs – worst in the NFL – and 10.9 return yards on punts – fifth worst. Opponents of the Black & Silver started their offensive drives at an average just the 32-yard line, which snowballed into a defense that allowed a NFL-worst 28.3 points per game in 2014. The Raiders did added special teams standout Lorenzo Alexander, who was cut by Arizona. But it's a nice character hire of a hometown guy and merely a finger in the dam for Oakland's not-so special teams.

The Bengals are loaded with special teams talent, especially on their return team. Cincinnati still has Adam Jones returning kicks, coming off a season in which he lead the league in average yards per kickoff return (31.3) and finished second in average yards per punt return (11.9). Behind “Pacman”, Cincy has WR Brandon Tate, RB Giovanni Bernard, and rookie speedster Mario Alford from West Virginia, who ran a 4.43 second 40-yard dash at the combine. Andy Dalton and the Bengals offense benefited from an average starting spot of almost the 30-yard line in 2014 (29.89).

Daily fantasy watch: Bengals defense/special teams

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-6, 51.5)

Giants’ small defensive line vs. Cowboys’ massive blockers

Tony Romo and Dez Bryant may sell the most jerseys but the real stars of the Cowboys are the offensive linemen. Dallas dominated the trenches last season, helping the team own the football for 32:13 per game and giving Romo time to drop back, read the defense, read his stacks of hate mail, then find the open receiver. The starting offensive line runs an average height of over 6-foot-4 and combines to weigh 1,590 pounds – or about the same as a U-HAUL van minus the furniture. And that’s not counting the other bodies on the bench, like La'el Collins who runs 6-foot-4 and 321 pounds.

The G-Men started the season light on the defensive line, playing without top pass rusher DE Jason Pierre Paul, who blew off his index finger with Fourth of July fireworks. The Giants defensive line is smaller and built for speed, topping out at starting DT Johnathan Hankins (320 pounds), and gets diminutive very quickly once they start going down the depth chart. New York doesn’t have a lineman that demands a double team, which means maximum protection for Romo and gives the Cowboys extra blockers in TEs and RBs to pick up the blitz.

Daily fantasy watch: QB Tony Romo, TE Jason Witten, RB Joseph Randle/Darren McFadden

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Free NFL Betting Predictions: Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos Odds and Picks
by Alan Matthews

It was tough picking which Sunday NFL game to preview for Week 1. Packers-Bears is always interesting, and Green Bay begins life without Pro Bowl receiver Jordy Nelson. MMQB writer Peter King has the Packers as his Super Bowl champions, and I know a lot of other experts feel the same way despite no Nelson.

Browns-Jets is the "No Quarterback Bowl." Rex Ryan makes his Buffalo coaching debut, and I could see the Bills upsetting visiting Indianapolis in Tyrod Taylor's first NFL start. Seahawks-Rams should be a defensive slugfest. Titans-Buccaneers is matchup of 2-14 teams from last year but also the past two Heisman Trophy winners in Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston, respectively. Giants-Cowboys is always interesting -- it Odell Beckham Jr. really that good? How much will the Cowboys miss 2014 NFL rushing king DeMarco Murray?

All would have been good choices, but I'm going with Ravens-Broncos as I expect both to be playoff clubs this winter. King as Baltimore has his AFC champion. Not sure I'm that high on the Ravens. I'm assuming Denver wins another AFC West title in what could be the start of Peyton Manning's final season.

And don't think Week 1 games don't matter. Last year, Seattle beat Green Bay in Week 1 in the Pacific Northwest and that proved to be the tiebreaker between the two teams for where the NFC title game was held.

Ravens at Broncos Betting Story Lines

Baltimore brings back most everyone of note from last year's team that was 10-6 and clinched the final wild-card spot. The Ravens pulled an upset in Pittsburgh in the wild-card round but blew two 14-point leads in the divisional-round loss at New England. The Ravens were able to re-sign running back Justin Forsett, who was a breakout star in 2014 with 1,266 yards rushing and eight scores. I think that's a fluke. The team did lose receiver Torrey Smith (49 catches, 767 yards, 11 TDs) to free agency. That would be my worry here is that receiving corps for Joe Flacco. Baltimore took Central Florida receiver Breshad Perriman in Round 1 of the 2015 draft, but he's likely out until October with a knee problem. Second-round pick and tight end Maxx Williams also has been hurt almost all of camp and preseason. He's now No. 2 on the depth chart. So you are likely looking at Kamar Aiken and Steve Smith as your starting receivers and Crockett Gillmore as your primary tight end. Hmmm.

Denver finished 12-4 last regular season, including 8-0 at home, in winning the AFC West for a fourth straight season. But the Broncos were rather banged up entering the divisional-round home game vs. Indianapolis and were upset by Indianapolis 24-13. Manning really tailed off at the end of last season, but there was never any chance he would retire after such a bad performance in that Colts loss. Manning has lost Pro Bowl tight end Julius Thomas to free agency (12 TDs last year) and starting left tackle Ryan Clady to a season-ending injury.

Of course, Denver's new head coach, replacing John Fox, is Gary Kubiak, who was Baltimore's offensive coordinator last year. Kubiak has installed a West Coast offense and probably would like to run the ball more a bit more in 2015 than the Broncos have under Manning for the most part. Running back C.J. Anderson should have a big season. I am surprised the team waived Montee Ball, however. The Broncos will be without one defensive starter here in safety T.J. Ward. He was suspended one game for a violation of the league's personal conduct policy, Ward made his second Pro Bowl in 2014. David Bruton Jr. will start in his place.

The past two meetings between these teams have been very memorable. They met in the 2013 season opener in Denver because the reigning Super Bowl champion Ravens were unable to host the Kickoff Game due to the Orioles playing that night. Manning threw for 462 yards and an NFL record-tying seven touchdowns in the 49-27 win. Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas and Wes Welker (gone now) each had TD catches. Flacco threw for 362 yards, two TDs and two picks.

In the 2012 divisional round, also at Denver, the Ravens stunned the heavily-favored Broncos 38-35 in double overtime thanks in large part to a Flacco 70-yard touchdown pass to Jacoby Jones (gone now) to tie the game with 41 seconds in regulation. Manning threw a costly pick late in the first overtime that led to Justin Tucker's winning field goal.


Ravens at Broncos NFL Week 1 Betting Odds and Trends

The Broncos are 4.5-point favorites (-11) with a total of 49. Denver is -220 on the moneyline. There is currently just an alternate line of Broncos are -4 (-118), but I'm sure there will be several more closer to kickoff. Baltimore was 3-4-1 against the spread on the road last season and 5-3 "over/under." Denver was 4-4 ATS at home and 6-2 O/U.

The Ravens are 5-2 ATS in their past seven Week 1 games. They have covered just five of their past 17 overall against the AFC. The Broncos have covered only one of their past five in September. The under is 5-2 in Baltimore's past seven September games. The over is 5-0 in Denver's past five season openers. The favorite is 5-1 in the past six meetings. The over is 4-0 in the past four.

Free NFL Betting Picks: Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos Betting Predictions

I believe the Denver defense is going to be very good under new coordinator Wade Phillips. The Ravens lost a few guys off their 2014 unit. And you know the Broncos' offense is better than Baltimore's. Kubiak will no doubt have some secrets on how to deal with Flacco and Co. (former Bears head coach Marc Trestman is Baltimore's new OC -- that's a downgrade!). Give the points and go over the total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Giants WR Cruz, LB Beason ruled out vs. Cowboys
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

Wide receiver Victor Cruz has been ruled out of the New York Giants' season opener at the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday night due to a calf injury that has plagued him since the middle of August.

Cruz has yet to resume running and coach Tom Coughlin declined to speculate on when Cruz may return to the field.

"He's getting better, he's getting better. He's improved, no doubt," Coughlin said. "As soon as he's ready to go, he'll be on the field and practicing. Until that time, we're all trying to figure out when exactly he'll be ready. "

Linebacker Jon Beason has also been ruled out due to a knee injury.

"He just didn't get any better," Coughlin said. "Didn't get to the point where he felt he could play, and play the way he would like to. And the medical people agreed."

The only other three players on the Giants' injury report were all listed as probable: linebacker Jonathan Casillas (neck), defensive tackle Cullen Jenkins (hamstring) and defensive end Owa Odighizuwa (foot).

Cruz experienced swelling in his calf just as he was anticipated to return to the field for the first time last month since undergoing season-ending knee surgery last year. The injuries are said to not be related, but the calf injury has lingered and Cruz did not practice all week.