Tampa Bay Rays -0.5 (1st 5 Inn) -110 2units
Probably only play for today: Price has looked good so far, has had success vs NYY in the past and the Yanks are struggling offensively + had to travel to St Pete without an off-day after yesterdays doubleheader.
CC on the other hand has sucked this season, already declined steeply last year and got beat up by TB last year. Tampa still is no offensive powerhouse, but I love the matchup vs CC and their offense this year should be better when all is said & done than most ppl give them credit for.
Probably only play for today: Price has looked good so far, has had success vs NYY in the past and the Yanks are struggling offensively + had to travel to St Pete without an off-day after yesterdays doubleheader.
CC on the other hand has sucked this season, already declined steeply last year and got beat up by TB last year. Tampa still is no offensive powerhouse, but I love the matchup vs CC and their offense this year should be better when all is said & done than most ppl give them credit for.
16-9 --> +8.17 units
TEX -1 -107 1.5units
LAD -1 -134 1.5units
BAL ML +127 1unit
Paulino sucks, walks way too many, gives up homeruns, hangs to many pitches over the plate. Arlington not the type of place for that stuff, TEX struggling but matchup looks great. Also doesn't pitch deep into games & bullpen stinks. Travelling to TEX after late game in Chicago, while TEX already had a home series + early game. Perez very decent pitcher + good bullpen vs a kind of overachieving offense that slowly is coming back down to earth.
Greinke is top, dominated vs ARI in his last start + all his starts last season. Bullpen is ok, ARIs offense so far hasn't really found a groove yet. Miley is subpar, petty much always gives up like 3R in 5IP vs LAD and ARIs bullpen is really bad so far, with Oli Perez being an exception.
Tillman has been great in his first couple of starts, has always done well vs BOS and Red Sox slumping, esp. with Pedroia & Napoli being banged up and not being 100%. BAL hasn't done too much vs Lackey and Lackey has been ok so far, but BAL is finding some sort of rhythm lately and almost always managed to score 2-3runs vs Lackey. Bullpen is so-so, esp. with Uehara probably not being available after his injury and just coming back and closing Thursday. Tillman shouldn't be such an underdog here.
TEX -1 -107 1.5units
LAD -1 -134 1.5units
BAL ML +127 1unit
Paulino sucks, walks way too many, gives up homeruns, hangs to many pitches over the plate. Arlington not the type of place for that stuff, TEX struggling but matchup looks great. Also doesn't pitch deep into games & bullpen stinks. Travelling to TEX after late game in Chicago, while TEX already had a home series + early game. Perez very decent pitcher + good bullpen vs a kind of overachieving offense that slowly is coming back down to earth.
Greinke is top, dominated vs ARI in his last start + all his starts last season. Bullpen is ok, ARIs offense so far hasn't really found a groove yet. Miley is subpar, petty much always gives up like 3R in 5IP vs LAD and ARIs bullpen is really bad so far, with Oli Perez being an exception.
Tillman has been great in his first couple of starts, has always done well vs BOS and Red Sox slumping, esp. with Pedroia & Napoli being banged up and not being 100%. BAL hasn't done too much vs Lackey and Lackey has been ok so far, but BAL is finding some sort of rhythm lately and almost always managed to score 2-3runs vs Lackey. Bullpen is so-so, esp. with Uehara probably not being available after his injury and just coming back and closing Thursday. Tillman shouldn't be such an underdog here.
Thanks sharky, happy Easter to you, too. Hope everything's ok in LV & you'r doing great.
Can't give any opinion on that game: I did well with Serie A and especially Serie B last year, but probably 75% of my bets involved either Joinville or one of the two teams from Floripa (Avai/Figueirense) because I focussed a bit more on the "local" teams from Santa Catarina (plus looking for many under bets involving Corinthians). But have barely kept up with the changes after last season and stayed away from the local championships, so have no clue about power rankings now at the beginning of the season.
I will probably just wait a few games before I get involved and would suggest to anyone, who wants to bet, not to put too much into the results of the local state championships since many teams will look completely different for Serie B. Just did a quick lookup and if I saw it correctly, Vila Nova f.e. will field a completely different team, just involving 2 of the regulars from the Goiano championship and 9 new guys, while Luverdense at least signed like 6 new guys in April alone. That many changes to the lineup usually favors the under since their can't be much of a chemistry between the players yet, not knowing the running lanes of their teammates etc, but at the same time, if it involves the defense, miscommunication will mean that they might give up more scoring opportunities. Plus it's almost impossible to know how those changes will affect the tactical approach of either team. So no bet since you pretty much can throw out all stats available because there is hardly any relevant data to base your bet on.
Can't give any opinion on that game: I did well with Serie A and especially Serie B last year, but probably 75% of my bets involved either Joinville or one of the two teams from Floripa (Avai/Figueirense) because I focussed a bit more on the "local" teams from Santa Catarina (plus looking for many under bets involving Corinthians). But have barely kept up with the changes after last season and stayed away from the local championships, so have no clue about power rankings now at the beginning of the season.
I will probably just wait a few games before I get involved and would suggest to anyone, who wants to bet, not to put too much into the results of the local state championships since many teams will look completely different for Serie B. Just did a quick lookup and if I saw it correctly, Vila Nova f.e. will field a completely different team, just involving 2 of the regulars from the Goiano championship and 9 new guys, while Luverdense at least signed like 6 new guys in April alone. That many changes to the lineup usually favors the under since their can't be much of a chemistry between the players yet, not knowing the running lanes of their teammates etc, but at the same time, if it involves the defense, miscommunication will mean that they might give up more scoring opportunities. Plus it's almost impossible to know how those changes will affect the tactical approach of either team. So no bet since you pretty much can throw out all stats available because there is hardly any relevant data to base your bet on.
Just my two cents though, don't know who posted the pick and on what info he based his bet on, he might have some good info, it's just that I don't.
And I won't put in the necessary time to search online for that info because it's rather hard to find for most Serie B teams (unless you have a local source) and there would still be too many unknowns for my liking/my approach. So will just sit back for a while, even more so because I'm busy at the moment thanks to MLB (esp. prop bets) and having to sort out my visa extension and some other personal stuff (good stuff though, so all is fine).
And I won't put in the necessary time to search online for that info because it's rather hard to find for most Serie B teams (unless you have a local source) and there would still be too many unknowns for my liking/my approach. So will just sit back for a while, even more so because I'm busy at the moment thanks to MLB (esp. prop bets) and having to sort out my visa extension and some other personal stuff (good stuff though, so all is fine).
Adding 0.5units on TEX + LAD each, making these 2unit plays.
Plus:
DET +0 (1st 5 Inn) -111 2.5 units
Going against the market, going against Weaver: Velocity down, like sherwood already pointed out his stats imply that the performance we've seen so far is to be expected and up to this point he only faced 3 of the worst offenses. DET has topnotch talent, even though they struggled up to this point. But they have all players available and should soon find their rhythm, Weaver seems like a good matchup to get something going.
Smyly has been great out of the bullpen again so far, already worked as a starter in spring training and in the past, so should be used to the routine. Also has very good numbers in limited ABs vs LAA and Angels without their leadoff Calhoun and keyhitter Hamilton.
Imo these odds are just based on Weaver's "big" name, but pitching & offensive advantage imo are clearly in DETs favor. LAAs bullpen sucks, but since I'm not sure how deep Smyly can pitch into this game and if he might get a bit tired around 75+ pitches, I'll go with the 1st 5 option.
Plus:
DET +0 (1st 5 Inn) -111 2.5 units
Going against the market, going against Weaver: Velocity down, like sherwood already pointed out his stats imply that the performance we've seen so far is to be expected and up to this point he only faced 3 of the worst offenses. DET has topnotch talent, even though they struggled up to this point. But they have all players available and should soon find their rhythm, Weaver seems like a good matchup to get something going.
Smyly has been great out of the bullpen again so far, already worked as a starter in spring training and in the past, so should be used to the routine. Also has very good numbers in limited ABs vs LAA and Angels without their leadoff Calhoun and keyhitter Hamilton.
Imo these odds are just based on Weaver's "big" name, but pitching & offensive advantage imo are clearly in DETs favor. LAAs bullpen sucks, but since I'm not sure how deep Smyly can pitch into this game and if he might get a bit tired around 75+ pitches, I'll go with the 1st 5 option.
Just some small stuff today and even though I hate to do it with the way Tillman has been pitching & Red Sox have been hitting, I had to take the under 7.0IP -110. Boston usually works the count and having Napoli & Pedroia back only helps to drive up opposing pitchcounts, plus Tillman went just 5IP in the opening game vs BOS, 0-3-3 without any over last year and 1-2-0 in 2012 against them.
And Greinke over 5.2IP which is pretty much an instant bet every time he isn't injured, on a pitchcount and gets a line below 6IP at home.
Off to a pub crawl now, best of luck to everybody, tail at your own risk, but hopefully it's back into the green after that crap yesterday...
And Greinke over 5.2IP which is pretty much an instant bet every time he isn't injured, on a pitchcount and gets a line below 6IP at home.
Off to a pub crawl now, best of luck to everybody, tail at your own risk, but hopefully it's back into the green after that crap yesterday...
