Smyly just completely off.
LAD was a bad pick, although they had their chances. But some questionable decisions imo: Will never get it, why people go after the 1st pitch when the opposing starter walks the first two batters and you have an umpire known for a rather small strikezone. A number #2 hitter that swings at balls on 2-0, 3-1 counts and isn't able to lay down a simple sac bunt...and even though I know that ppl are hesitant to sub in their backup catcher, with Federowicz being pretty much an automatic out and Butera on the bench, I think you could make an argument that you let Dee Gordon pinch hit (for Fedex) with 1out vs a RHP (Reed) in the 9th, especially with Ethier & Puig up next.
Either way, another losing day (2-2 -1.37) thanks to adding DET and not flat betting. Might be better off just flat betting everything.
18-11 --> +6.8 units
LAD was a bad pick, although they had their chances. But some questionable decisions imo: Will never get it, why people go after the 1st pitch when the opposing starter walks the first two batters and you have an umpire known for a rather small strikezone. A number #2 hitter that swings at balls on 2-0, 3-1 counts and isn't able to lay down a simple sac bunt...and even though I know that ppl are hesitant to sub in their backup catcher, with Federowicz being pretty much an automatic out and Butera on the bench, I think you could make an argument that you let Dee Gordon pinch hit (for Fedex) with 1out vs a RHP (Reed) in the 9th, especially with Ethier & Puig up next.
Either way, another losing day (2-2 -1.37) thanks to adding DET and not flat betting. Might be better off just flat betting everything.
18-11 --> +6.8 units
San Francisco Giants +0 (1st 5 Inn) -128 2units
Milwaukee Brewers -0.5 (1st 5 Inn) +117 2units
Seattle Mariners +0 (1st 5 Inn) -118 2units
Hudson gave up almost no hits so far, numbers would have been even better if Bochy had taken him out a bit earlier. SD hasn't hit him with the exception of Maybin/Quentin and both are out, so other than Denorfia (1/2) and Alonso (1/3), both hits being singles, the rest of them have hit below .235 or will see him the 1st time.
SF has had success vs Stults, who has been anything but sharp so far: Pence/Sandoval/Posey are a combined 27/62 .435 with 6 doubles and 4 HRs vs Stults. Add in Arias 7/19 (1double), Pagan 5/18 (3doubles), Crawford 3/9 (2HRs), that's already 6 out of 9 batters, plus Morse (1st time vs Stults) and Belt (3/13, but .346 vs LHP in 2014 so far) might have been SFs best hitters so far.
Garza has been so-so but rather good numbers vs PIT. Bet is against Wandy more than anything else: Velocity is down, has been hit hard, bad numbers vs MIL and missing his spots. MIL also better offense and right now should have the pitching advantage until the ball is handed over to the bullpens.
Elias has been really good so far after a strong spring. Control can be a bit off, but hasn't walked too many and the contact made against his pitches has been rather weak. SEA offensively has been weak, but Alvarez has given up a shitload of hits & walks and it's just a question of time, until he gets shelled and doesn't strand an abnormal high amount of runners, esp. since he doesn't really strike out too many.
Milwaukee Brewers -0.5 (1st 5 Inn) +117 2units
Seattle Mariners +0 (1st 5 Inn) -118 2units
Hudson gave up almost no hits so far, numbers would have been even better if Bochy had taken him out a bit earlier. SD hasn't hit him with the exception of Maybin/Quentin and both are out, so other than Denorfia (1/2) and Alonso (1/3), both hits being singles, the rest of them have hit below .235 or will see him the 1st time.
SF has had success vs Stults, who has been anything but sharp so far: Pence/Sandoval/Posey are a combined 27/62 .435 with 6 doubles and 4 HRs vs Stults. Add in Arias 7/19 (1double), Pagan 5/18 (3doubles), Crawford 3/9 (2HRs), that's already 6 out of 9 batters, plus Morse (1st time vs Stults) and Belt (3/13, but .346 vs LHP in 2014 so far) might have been SFs best hitters so far.
Garza has been so-so but rather good numbers vs PIT. Bet is against Wandy more than anything else: Velocity is down, has been hit hard, bad numbers vs MIL and missing his spots. MIL also better offense and right now should have the pitching advantage until the ball is handed over to the bullpens.
Elias has been really good so far after a strong spring. Control can be a bit off, but hasn't walked too many and the contact made against his pitches has been rather weak. SEA offensively has been weak, but Alvarez has given up a shitload of hits & walks and it's just a question of time, until he gets shelled and doesn't strand an abnormal high amount of runners, esp. since he doesn't really strike out too many.
Thx, good luck to you too.
Adding:
Atlanta Braves -1 +103 2units
Santana has been lights out, NYM offensively has done absolutely nothing. Colon was great in their 1st encounter, but Braves have now seen him and should do better this time around, Colon has back problems which last time out @LAA affected his control and allowed LAA to tee off and Braves offense has been getting better, more guys hitting nowadays. Plus the Mets bullpen sucks. Sowith Colon hurting I'll go with the Braves, even though their offense probably will drive me crazy again...
Could have easily been 3-2 or even 3-1-1 instead of 2-3, but you win some, you lose some. Some other day those errors will go in our favor and in the end almost should be happy it didn't end 1-3-1 with Kimbrel blowing and Wright stopping at 3rd...
Sunday off like always, even though I might monitor the bets I normally would place on sundays and start fading myself, if I still suck on Sundays like I did the last 2 seasons.
20-14 --> +4.56 units
Sunday off like always, even though I might monitor the bets I normally would place on sundays and start fading myself, if I still suck on Sundays like I did the last 2 seasons.
20-14 --> +4.56 units
Not quitting, just spent the week at the office of policia federal extending my visa and even though I took my laptop with me, I forgot my power adapter at home, so battery died on me.
Waiting for the umpire crew in NY tonight, depending on the home plate ump might have a play there, otherwise don't like anything on todays card.
Waiting for the umpire crew in NY tonight, depending on the home plate ump might have a play there, otherwise don't like anything on todays card.
MIA@NYM under 3.5 runs (1st 5 innings) -106 1unit
Alvarez had very good numbers vs NYM last year and just shut down a similar bad SEA offense, Wheeler has 3 QS in 4 appearances, although he also gave up at least 3runs in 4 of his starts, but mostly in the 5th inning when he faced the lineup for the 3rd time. Since MIA is struggling on the road, I hope he repeats last years success and gets through the 5th before he has to face the heart of the lineup for the 3rd time today.
City Field, cold weather and Andy Fletcher calling balls & strikes at least should help.
Alvarez had very good numbers vs NYM last year and just shut down a similar bad SEA offense, Wheeler has 3 QS in 4 appearances, although he also gave up at least 3runs in 4 of his starts, but mostly in the 5th inning when he faced the lineup for the 3rd time. Since MIA is struggling on the road, I hope he repeats last years success and gets through the 5th before he has to face the heart of the lineup for the 3rd time today.
City Field, cold weather and Andy Fletcher calling balls & strikes at least should help.
