Soriano12 MLB 2014

[Soriano12]

Can't comment on Kazmir since I missed that game, but still will add: Jim Johnson looks like the guy we thought he was *g*
Was surprised by Garza, velocity was good and worked ahead in the count the whole time. Will be interesting to see how he does over the next few games, esp. against a lineup that has a more patient approach. But might have to change my opinion on him, looked really good. Also like I said, will hold off on an opinion about the Brewers offense, they can actually be one of the better ones in the NL as long as Ramirez & Braun stay healthy.

My opinion about ATL hasn't changed though. Offensively there isn't much besides Heyward, Freeman and Johnson, even though the names on the lineup card might suggest otherwise...sure, the Uptons (esp. Justin), Uggla and Gattis will hit some homeruns, those 4 over the course of a full season might even average 25HRs. But they just don't hit well enough, could see them finish with a combined avg around .240 at the same time and that just means, that they probably are in a lot of low scoring games. Their pitchers should keep them in most of them, but I just don't think their starting rotation is deep enough this year to win enough of those close ones. Harang will come down to earth pretty sure, I'm sure. And Wood/Teheran should provide them with an ERA around 3, but then again Wood might decline once his workload gets towards 140+ IP. And I'd put some question mark behind Minor too since he might need some time to find his form and who knows if he can go the rest of the year without any further issues...

Will only do some prop bets tonight, at least don't like any sides or totals so far ...

 

[Soriano12]

over on MIN/CHW won, ATL/MIL lost, so new record: 4-3 --> -1.76 units

Friday:
KC -1 +105 2units
Guthrie had a bad spring, but has never been great in spring and had a good april last year. Over the last 2 years he has done great vs the Sox: 29.2IP with a 0.30 ERA in 2012, then struggled twice against them last year but pretty much shut them down in the other 3 starts, including their last encounter. KC offense looks good, they also did well vs Johnson last year and Johnson was awful in spring: 7BB in 17IP underline that he still is being plagued by subpar control and opposing batters hit well above .300 against him. He also doesn't go deep into games and the Sox pen looked anemic vs MIN, while KC should once again field one of the better bullpens, even after the loss of Hochevar.
Not that important, but KC also were able to travel earlier back home due to having their game @DET being ppd while the Sox had to play the Twins, where once again their pen blew a lead.

 

[Akillies]

Despite there performance so far i am high on this oriole team, and today they are big underdogs. opposing pitcher Anibal, i heard has had some problems, do you think they are worth a look?

 

[Soriano12]

Adding:
LAD -0.5 (1st 5 Inn) -111 2units

Won't touch that Orioles game. Sanchez had some shoulder problems but the appearances he made were good. Might be on a pitchcount somewhere around 90, so BAL should get some RPs and I'm not that high on their pen. Gonzalez was good last year but struggled in his lone start vs DET last year, so with all that in mind not much to say against a bet on BAL, just too many unknowns for me to put any money on it, better spots to be found in a long MLB season

 

[Akillies]

thx for the headsup on gutherie as they have reached the unplayable zone now, -160. u know its good when they move like that
j
you have any info on mcgowan? i always thought he was going to be good, but so many injuries and lost time.

 

[thekeyman]

Good luck today my friend

 

[Soriano12]

Thanks key, best of luck to you, too.

@Akillies: Will stay away from McGowan for now, after all that time I want to see him pitch a couple of times before betting games involving him. Almost went against TOR though when I saw NYY -127 just because I'm high on Tanaka. Like Darvish the real deal and even though he lacks Darvish's fastball velocity, I think both are somewhat comparable: TOR struggled a lot vs Darvish when they first met, struck out 9 times, were constantly off balance and couldn't get any solid contact with the sole exception being a solo shot. Expect the same from Tanaka, should strike out a bunch, keep them off balance and lots of groundballs.
Plus I think McGowan won't go that deep into the game and after losing their CL the pen lacks depth. Just didn't pull the trigger because I don't like that the Yanks had to go all the way from HOU to TOR after a late game and their own offense doesn't look good so far.

Thinking about betting on Pelfrey +0 +166 1st 5, any opinion on that one?
Pelfrey had a great spring and strong outings against them last year, is one year removed from TJ surgery which usually is the point when pitcher's are fully back and regain control. Their offense was suprisingly ok vs CHW (even though they left lots of runs on base) and Salazar got roughed up in his last spring start plus didn't pitch that much to begin with, so might not have found his rhythm yet. Seems an extremely steep price for a rather unproven pitcher.

 

[Akillies]

salazar definitely too high, being priced like verlander?? IDK about twins though, they sure hit in chicago and r the only way to go in this. why first five? are the pens way different? i was considering twins as well, waitin till i see what u do

 

[Akillies]

nyy game, the market is rating tanaka as great right out the gate and i think jays have the superior lineup. with the pen situation, i will wait and if i can get +130 will take firstt five

 

[Akillies]

i m not high on the red sox but how can they be only -145 ?
is peavy done or something

 

[Soriano12]

Don't like the Twins bullpen with the exception of Perkins. Rest is subpar imo, got hit by the Sox, too. On the other hand CLE has still a good looking pen imo, even though they lost Smith & Perez. Axford looks pretty good since he left MIL, Allen is a very underrated setup man and they have some other decent arms like their lefty specialist Rzepczinsky.
So imo higher value excluding the bullpens here...

 

[Soriano12]

Damn, seems like I forgot to officially make MIN 1st 5 a play, so for here just 1-1 +0.1.
Pelfrey cruised through 5, then imploded in the 6th (is fine with me *lol* but seriously, sort of lucky in the end, MIN left some runs on base thanks to questionable baserunning and then Pelfrey lost it from one inning to the next...). Vogelsong sucked, like expected, unfortunately Ryu outdid him in the sucking department. Guess will lay off of his starts, 3 games and 3 losses so far...Guthrie wasn't great, but did his usual thing after getting out of trouble in the first, KCs bullpen a bit shakier than I thought, but imo that win was well deserved.

With the 1unit play on MIN would be back to zero, but since I didn't put it up with a unit next to it, official record still negative:
5-4 --> -1.66 units

Will be out having some fun now, so no early bets today. Will try to take a look at Saturdays games once I'm up tomorrow morning. Great weekend to everybody and hopefully we get some good discussions about the games going and use it to make all of us some money.

 

[Akillies]

pelphry pitches great for 5, then melts down in the 6th right on que

as you warned the O's and Jays both sucked
kc breaks out, as do the Rocks finally at home

 

[Soriano12]

SF +0 (1st 5 Inn) -115 2units

Don't get that line: Ok, it's @LA, but SF should have a huge pitching advantage and so far has hit pretty well offensively. Bumgarner strong spring, wasn't THAT sharp @ARI, but the DBacks hit him better than LA last year and he still only gave up unearned runs...LA hasn't looked that well offensively imo, struggles vs LHP last year and hasn't done anything vs Bumgarner in the past.
Maholm was nothing special during Spring training, SF is hitting rather well so far, had Maholm's number when they met last year and Pagan, Sandoval, Pence, Posey and Crawford (although in limited ABs) have hit .340 (33/97) against him with a bunch of extra base hits (10 doubles, 1 triple, 4 HRs).
Imo should be more like -130

 

[Soriano12]

SEA ML -120 2units

Seriously? Hernandez legit Top3 Pitcher, looked very good @LAA (imo better than his ERA suggests), has dominated OAK in the past: In 2013 he started 3 games against OAK, gave up a combined 3R on 13H (opposing avg .183) + 3BB while striking out 22 in 20.2IP. Out of these 3 starts 2 were @OAK and he shut them down, no R allowed in 14.2IP, just .163 avg (8H, 2BB) while striking out 16.
And then you tell me, that he should be just -120 vs more or less the same lineup, when OAK is starting Straily, who was mediocre in spring, struggling mightily with his control (10BB in 13.2IP). Plus he already didn't do anything vs SEA last year, 2 starts, 8.64 ERA with a whopping 2.28 WHIP and SEA has looked vastly improved offensively...
Line should be closer to -135 or -140 imo, even on the road.

 

[Soriano12]

SF 6-1, SEA 3-1 ^!:

7-4 --> +1.74 units

So finally on the plus side, probably taking tomorrow off because my results on sundays were terrible, maybe related to getaway games, but was quite obvious. So no need to push it, enough days left in the season to make some coin.

 

[Akillies]

two great pics
anythin for the nite

 

[Soriano12]

Just some more pitcher prop bets...was thinking about MIA ML or under 1st 5. But not feeling comfortable backing the Marlins at such a price (even with Fernandez pitching) vs a good opposing starter. And will stay away from the under with Gerry Davis small strikezone behind homeplate.

 

[Akillies]

O's taking money, they have killed me so far, maybe they break out at yankee stadium

 

[Soriano12]

Easy to say in hindsight (didn't see your post earlier) but wouldn't bet the Orioles vs Kuroda @Yankee Stadium. At Camden for sure, but he has pretty extreme home/road splits against them: Last year 2GS @BAL, 8IP, 15H, 9R, 5HR allowed ...while he shut them out over 16IP (2 starts) at Yankee stadium giving up 8H and 1BB. And one year before that also had very good numbers in the only two (home) starts vs BAL.

No bets today, kind of like the over 5.5 +105 in COL 1st 5. Lyles sucks, CHW hitting quite ok, COL offense rolling and Paulino allows to many baserunners, bunch of BB and is HR prone, probably the worst possible combination for success in Colorado. But don't know the plate umpire yet and probably passing on a 5.5 line.