SEA ML -117 2units
Paxton was terrific vs LAA last week. Usually I don't like betting on a pitcher who faces the same team within a week, but LAA didn't get anything going vs Paxton even late in the game, he had a good debut at the end of last season and showed very good control, keeping LAA off-balance and just seems a bad fit for an (in my opinion) highly overrated Angels offense (so far only Trout & Hamilton have been hitting and Pujols has been anemic, either popping up or hitting into doubleplays, timing is off, swinging at balls low and out of the zone...). SEA bullpen also looked pretty good so far.
Santiago struggled towards the end of spring and got hit by SEA last week. He got pulled after his back tightened up, so no reason to think he will do better this time around. Seattles offense so far has looked good to me: They added Cano, a great bat, but even though Morrison & Hart haven't done much so far, I think having two veterans like Cano & Hart around plus seeing the rather patient plate approach by them (plus Morrison, who has a decent eye at the plate) helps out the rest of that lineup a lot, which imo is part of the reason why guys like Almonte, Smoak & Ackley have started out so well. The Angels pen also is anything but special and while SEA had Monday off and a rather short trip home from OAK, LA had to play @HOU and after that make the trip to the Northwest.
Paxton was terrific vs LAA last week. Usually I don't like betting on a pitcher who faces the same team within a week, but LAA didn't get anything going vs Paxton even late in the game, he had a good debut at the end of last season and showed very good control, keeping LAA off-balance and just seems a bad fit for an (in my opinion) highly overrated Angels offense (so far only Trout & Hamilton have been hitting and Pujols has been anemic, either popping up or hitting into doubleplays, timing is off, swinging at balls low and out of the zone...). SEA bullpen also looked pretty good so far.
Santiago struggled towards the end of spring and got hit by SEA last week. He got pulled after his back tightened up, so no reason to think he will do better this time around. Seattles offense so far has looked good to me: They added Cano, a great bat, but even though Morrison & Hart haven't done much so far, I think having two veterans like Cano & Hart around plus seeing the rather patient plate approach by them (plus Morrison, who has a decent eye at the plate) helps out the rest of that lineup a lot, which imo is part of the reason why guys like Almonte, Smoak & Ackley have started out so well. The Angels pen also is anything but special and while SEA had Monday off and a rather short trip home from OAK, LA had to play @HOU and after that make the trip to the Northwest.
TOR -1 -129
I liked Oberholtzer last year, usually not a fan of going against a decent pitcher facing a team for the 1st time and for sure don't like betting Buehrle as such a big favorite, but will still bite this time: Buehrle was great @Tampa and flat out dominated the Astros last year: Started two games vs HOU, went 17IP, gave up a single run on 9H, while striking out 16. The start at home was a CG 2hit shutout. HOUs offense has struggled: Last 5 they scored 2,1,1,7 and 1runs. The 7run outburst is more prove of Weavers decline than the Astros offensive talent and vs the two lefties Skaggs & Wilson they looked like crap.
I liked Oberholtzer last year, usually not a fan of going against a decent pitcher facing a team for the 1st time and for sure don't like betting Buehrle as such a big favorite, but will still bite this time: Buehrle was great @Tampa and flat out dominated the Astros last year: Started two games vs HOU, went 17IP, gave up a single run on 9H, while striking out 16. The start at home was a CG 2hit shutout. HOUs offense has struggled: Last 5 they scored 2,1,1,7 and 1runs. The 7run outburst is more prove of Weavers decline than the Astros offensive talent and vs the two lefties Skaggs & Wilson they looked like crap.
Somehow messed up and didn't put a unit amount next to TOR-1 (was supposed to be the standard 2units), so will count it as a 1unit play. Hope that's the right way to do since it was posted like my other plays with the exception of a unit amount next to it.
Doesn't really matter that much anyway since it should be more about exchanging information about games and discussing them (everybody looks at different stuff and always good to get a different point of view).
So SEA +1.7, TOR +0.79, new record:
9-4 --> +4.23 units
Probably will post Wednesday and after that be off until Tuesday since I'm finally going to Sao Paulo and a mini cruise from Friday to Monday, party time. Best of luck, keep cashing your tickets and see you on Tuesday
Doesn't really matter that much anyway since it should be more about exchanging information about games and discussing them (everybody looks at different stuff and always good to get a different point of view).
So SEA +1.7, TOR +0.79, new record:
9-4 --> +4.23 units
Probably will post Wednesday and after that be off until Tuesday since I'm finally going to Sao Paulo and a mini cruise from Friday to Monday, party time. Best of luck, keep cashing your tickets and see you on Tuesday
MIL -1 +100 2units
Garza looked great vs ATL. Ok, ATL hasn't really done anything offensively so far, but his velocity was up, his breaking balls sharp with lots of movement and he had outstanding control. His numbers vs. PHIs batters are great and Utley was sent home because of the flu and should be a good chance PHIs best hitter so far will have to sit this one out, too (he's just 1/7 vs Garza btw). Bullpen looks decent and PHIs offense is nothing to write home about, to put it mildly...
The pitcher formerly know as Fausto Carmona is way past his prime, even though he had very good spring stats (if you take out one rough outing in his last start) and pitched surprisingly well in his first start. But I still don't think he is even an average pitcher nowadays, MILs offense is one of the better ones in the NL as long as they are healthy and Carmona was lifted after just a little more than 70 pitches in his (very good) 1st start, so I doubt he'll go deep in this one. This means we'll see our fair share of the Phils bullpen and that's another weak point, like pretty much everything about the Phils not named Lee or Hamels.
Garza looked great vs ATL. Ok, ATL hasn't really done anything offensively so far, but his velocity was up, his breaking balls sharp with lots of movement and he had outstanding control. His numbers vs. PHIs batters are great and Utley was sent home because of the flu and should be a good chance PHIs best hitter so far will have to sit this one out, too (he's just 1/7 vs Garza btw). Bullpen looks decent and PHIs offense is nothing to write home about, to put it mildly...
The pitcher formerly know as Fausto Carmona is way past his prime, even though he had very good spring stats (if you take out one rough outing in his last start) and pitched surprisingly well in his first start. But I still don't think he is even an average pitcher nowadays, MILs offense is one of the better ones in the NL as long as they are healthy and Carmona was lifted after just a little more than 70 pitches in his (very good) 1st start, so I doubt he'll go deep in this one. This means we'll see our fair share of the Phils bullpen and that's another weak point, like pretty much everything about the Phils not named Lee or Hamels.
NYM +0.5 1st 5 Innings -110 1.5units
If this game would go down in late April, I might pass. But how can you make Wheeler & the Mets that much of an underdog here? The Mets win their games thanks to strong starting pitching and defense and the Braves so far only have a winning record because of the great pitching provided by their starters. So today they start Santana today who didn't pitch much in spring thanks to his late signing. His spring was nothing special, giving up a run vs the Mets in 2IP and 2R vs DET in 3IP, while striking out no batters at all. In his AAA start for Gwinnett he walked 4(!) batters, gave up 8H and 6R in 5.1IP while striking out 3 batters early. If you look at the play by play, it looks like he started to get tired once he got to the 4th inning after cruising early, which makes sense if you remember that he missed almost all of spring training. Just isn't stretched out yet and the Mets should put some runners on and score here.
On the other hand Wheeler shut the Braves down in his 1st appearance vs them in spring and gave up 2R in the 1st inning of their 2nd encounter before shutting them down for the remaining 4.1IP. Last year he was good against the Braves, 2.84 ERA with a 6IP shutout @ATL. His stuff looked good vs WSH although it's worrying to see that the Nationals got their leadoff man on base every inning.
Up to this point I'd give the pitching advantage to the Mets, just because Santana is behind schedule. So let's take a look at the offense, the Mets are crappy, so that has to favor the praised Braves offense, right? Judge for yourself: Freeman & Johnson have started great, no question about that. But when they come up to the plate, it's almost guaranteed that the bases are empty, so pitchers are challenging them. The #1 and #2 hitters Heyward and BJ Upton are combined .122 (7/57) with 3BB while striking out 22times(!). We're talking about the table setters here, not the pitching spot.
Even worse, if you take away their two best hitters + #8 hitter Simmons (why is he still hitting 8th???), the remaining 5 players (Heyward, BJ & Justin Upton, Uggla & Gattis) are hitting a combined .175 (22/126) with 6BB while striking out an amazingly 45times. Add in a pitcher who has never ever played for a NL club an pretty much should be an automatic out, there is absolutely no reason why the Braves should be given the offensive advantage here, other than name recognition.
Sorry, but as much as the Mets have struggled offensively, NYM +0.5 1st 5 Innings should not be -110.
If this game would go down in late April, I might pass. But how can you make Wheeler & the Mets that much of an underdog here? The Mets win their games thanks to strong starting pitching and defense and the Braves so far only have a winning record because of the great pitching provided by their starters. So today they start Santana today who didn't pitch much in spring thanks to his late signing. His spring was nothing special, giving up a run vs the Mets in 2IP and 2R vs DET in 3IP, while striking out no batters at all. In his AAA start for Gwinnett he walked 4(!) batters, gave up 8H and 6R in 5.1IP while striking out 3 batters early. If you look at the play by play, it looks like he started to get tired once he got to the 4th inning after cruising early, which makes sense if you remember that he missed almost all of spring training. Just isn't stretched out yet and the Mets should put some runners on and score here.
On the other hand Wheeler shut the Braves down in his 1st appearance vs them in spring and gave up 2R in the 1st inning of their 2nd encounter before shutting them down for the remaining 4.1IP. Last year he was good against the Braves, 2.84 ERA with a 6IP shutout @ATL. His stuff looked good vs WSH although it's worrying to see that the Nationals got their leadoff man on base every inning.
Up to this point I'd give the pitching advantage to the Mets, just because Santana is behind schedule. So let's take a look at the offense, the Mets are crappy, so that has to favor the praised Braves offense, right? Judge for yourself: Freeman & Johnson have started great, no question about that. But when they come up to the plate, it's almost guaranteed that the bases are empty, so pitchers are challenging them. The #1 and #2 hitters Heyward and BJ Upton are combined .122 (7/57) with 3BB while striking out 22times(!). We're talking about the table setters here, not the pitching spot.
Even worse, if you take away their two best hitters + #8 hitter Simmons (why is he still hitting 8th???), the remaining 5 players (Heyward, BJ & Justin Upton, Uggla & Gattis) are hitting a combined .175 (22/126) with 6BB while striking out an amazingly 45times. Add in a pitcher who has never ever played for a NL club an pretty much should be an automatic out, there is absolutely no reason why the Braves should be given the offensive advantage here, other than name recognition.
Sorry, but as much as the Mets have struggled offensively, NYM +0.5 1st 5 Innings should not be -110.
now is no time to be taking a break, too much $ to be made, and everyday is party time for you.
man i wish i was there, u could send pics, [of the waves]. seriously you are killin it now.
Atl is garbage, market is catching on.
lots of injuries; josh hamilton, beltre, alex gordon [maybe] all very important. tori hunter.
ventura as good as the hype, if that was even possible, some said he is the best pitching prospect they ever saw. 6 inn 6 k's no runs, effortless 99mph. best part no walks and less than 30% balls. incredible
maybe i was wrong on Milw, O's breakout finally, when i am not on em, they were killin me.
man i wish i was there, u could send pics, [of the waves]. seriously you are killin it now.
Atl is garbage, market is catching on.
lots of injuries; josh hamilton, beltre, alex gordon [maybe] all very important. tori hunter.
ventura as good as the hype, if that was even possible, some said he is the best pitching prospect they ever saw. 6 inn 6 k's no runs, effortless 99mph. best part no walks and less than 30% balls. incredible
maybe i was wrong on Milw, O's breakout finally, when i am not on em, they were killin me.
Tbh the first two weeks of the season pretty much have been the best two weeks of MLB for me the last few years, so was even wondering to skip the cruise to not miss out on part of it.
But wanted to go since I came here in 2011 and there won't be a MOB festival in 2015, so not going to happen. Still thinking about taking the laptop with me though, talk about a gambling addiction... *lol*
Might take (& post) some pictures, although I barely ever take any...
Adding:
DET +0 (1st 5 Inn) -110 1.5units
Sanchez looked ok despite him missing time in spring due to injuries. Should only be better this time around with one more appearance under his belt + LA not an offensive powerhouse so far and Sanchez has a good h2h in limited ABs against them.
Pretty much going against Beckett, hasn't pitched in the Majors in like forever, as far as I know hasn't topped 50pitches in any appearance this year up to this point and had to leave his last start at Cucamonga early after another injury. Gave up two HRs (always struggled with the longball late in his career) and 5H + 3BB in just 4IP vs Double A competition and now gets to face a good DET lineup which features quite a few guys against he always struggled. Should tire once he gets to 60+ pitches, actually surprised to see him priced pretty much at the same level like Anibal.
Low limits, but thegreek also offers like -116 on Beckett under 5.5Ks, assuming he is probably being lifted after 65-75 pitches or 4-5IP, that line is awfully high, should be closer to 4.5 or at least 5 under these circumstances.
DET +0 (1st 5 Inn) -110 1.5units
Sanchez looked ok despite him missing time in spring due to injuries. Should only be better this time around with one more appearance under his belt + LA not an offensive powerhouse so far and Sanchez has a good h2h in limited ABs against them.
Pretty much going against Beckett, hasn't pitched in the Majors in like forever, as far as I know hasn't topped 50pitches in any appearance this year up to this point and had to leave his last start at Cucamonga early after another injury. Gave up two HRs (always struggled with the longball late in his career) and 5H + 3BB in just 4IP vs Double A competition and now gets to face a good DET lineup which features quite a few guys against he always struggled. Should tire once he gets to 60+ pitches, actually surprised to see him priced pretty much at the same level like Anibal.
Low limits, but thegreek also offers like -116 on Beckett under 5.5Ks, assuming he is probably being lifted after 65-75 pitches or 4-5IP, that line is awfully high, should be closer to 4.5 or at least 5 under these circumstances.
