Another one in the Superettan that fits the system is Jonkopings Sodra at home against Assyriska. Jonkopings has 2 draws at home but Assyriska has 2 large victories on the road. The price differential here is +233 to +170 so the +1/2 -135 would be the bet if I were to take it. Since this league is rather early in their season I will pass but I thought it would be worthwhile to track it.
Plenty of home dogs appeared on the radar:
Ireland - Eircom League
Shamrock +1/2 -149 over Drogheda
+238/+150 (up from +218)
Bray +1/2 -143 over Cork City
+244/+180 (up from +211)
Sligo +1/2 -141 over St. Patricks
+244/+185 (up from +209)
Out of these 3, the only price on the dog bet that Paddy Power changed was Shamrock going from +175 to +190.
Ireland - Eircom League
Shamrock +1/2 -149 over Drogheda
+238/+150 (up from +218)
Bray +1/2 -143 over Cork City
+244/+180 (up from +211)
Sligo +1/2 -141 over St. Patricks
+244/+185 (up from +209)
Out of these 3, the only price on the dog bet that Paddy Power changed was Shamrock going from +175 to +190.
Glad you guys won with your picks.
:drink:
I really liked Derry in this position especially with the "Paddy Lean".
Derry 4, UCD 1, WINNER, +0.63
Shamrock 0, Drogheda 0, WINNER, +0.67
Bray 0, Cork City 3, Loss, -1.00
Sligo 1, St. Patricks 2, -1.00
Today: 2-2, -0.70
YTD: +1.46
I don't know what to tell you guys about the dogs. Their record for home the last 2 weeks is 14-15 which is hardly not definitive in of itself. However, there have been some blowouts against them and that concerns me. I may consider playing only home favorites from this point on or maybe playing home dogs selectively.
:drink:
I really liked Derry in this position especially with the "Paddy Lean".
Derry 4, UCD 1, WINNER, +0.63
Shamrock 0, Drogheda 0, WINNER, +0.67
Bray 0, Cork City 3, Loss, -1.00
Sligo 1, St. Patricks 2, -1.00
Today: 2-2, -0.70
YTD: +1.46
I don't know what to tell you guys about the dogs. Their record for home the last 2 weeks is 14-15 which is hardly not definitive in of itself. However, there have been some blowouts against them and that concerns me. I may consider playing only home favorites from this point on or maybe playing home dogs selectively.
I just wanted to point out one match that I won't be betting where the safe book is giving more points for the favorite yet is deeply discounting the price for the dog. That would lead me to believe that they are wanting you to stay away from the dog. Figueirense +1/2 -131 over Vitoria. The 3-way prices are +240/+170 for Fig. and +111/+115 for Vitoria. The last time I saw this I bet Tigre against Lanus and Lanus won 4-1 so that's why this is not an official bet.
International - Friendlies
Turkey -0.5 +127 over Uruguay
+127/-125
I usually try to stay away from the friendlies but this one just looks good to me.
Brazil - Serie A
Sao Paulo -0.5 -182 over Coritiba
-182/-250
I have another special circumstance match where the safe book is giving a better price on the favorite and the dog. That is Sport over Fluminense. Sport is getting -105 at the safe book and -112 elsewhere. If all goes as in previous 2 matches of this type Sport should win by a large margin. This is just a test.
Turkey -0.5 +127 over Uruguay
+127/-125
I usually try to stay away from the friendlies but this one just looks good to me.
Brazil - Serie A
Sao Paulo -0.5 -182 over Coritiba
-182/-250
I have another special circumstance match where the safe book is giving a better price on the favorite and the dog. That is Sport over Fluminense. Sport is getting -105 at the safe book and -112 elsewhere. If all goes as in previous 2 matches of this type Sport should win by a large margin. This is just a test.
Good job with this one!!!
Sao Paolo looks cool too,Turkey will be missing some starters while others afraid to get injured just before the Euro starts,they barely scored once against Slovakia last week,i think this one has more of a chance to end tied but passing on it as it is friendly ,interesting to see if your prediction would work also with national and friendly match
BOL with both:toast:
