Soccer experiment

[quantumleap]

Good job with this one!!!

Sao Paolo looks cool too,Turkey will be missing some starters while others afraid to get injured just before the Euro starts,they barely scored once against Slovakia last week,i think this one has more of a chance to end tied but passing on it as it is friendly ,interesting to see if your prediction would work also with national and friendly match

BOL with both:toast:

Thanks for the input B4F.

I noticed that the odds were going away from Turkey and wondered why. Your reasoning could explain this. Still, in the friendlies in the past that I have tracked but not posted the results were favorable. Perhaps I will abandon friendlies if the result doesn't continue to be favorable.

:toast:

 

[quantumleap]

Doncaster 1, Leeds 0, WINNER, +0.71
Turkey 2, Uruguay 3, Loss, -1.00
Sao Paulo 1, Coritiba 1, Loss, -1.00

Today: 1-2, -1.29

YTD: +0.17

Perhaps I'll forget betting on the Friendlies. Too many are not taken seriously.

Sport won their match 2-1. I'll continue to keep an eye on matches that fit that criteria.

 

[quantumleap]

I found another one where the safe book was giving a better price on the favorite while discounting the dog but it's changed. In the Argentinian Primera League Newell's was at -156 for the square books and -153 for the safe book. The dog (Olimpo) was at +390 for the square books and +315 for the safe book. Those numbers are now -152/-175 and +438/+350. This would leave me to believe to take Newell's and the over. This is just an observation of 4 similar situations previously. I'm just wondering if this will end up the same way.

 

[quantumleap]

Sweden - Superettan
BK Häcken Goteborg -1/2 -230 over Jönköpings Södra
-230/-285
Häcken has the best home record in the Superettan.

 

[quantumleap]

Ireland - Eircom
Bray +0.5 -145 over UC Dublin
+250/+165
Normally I have been staying away from the road teams. The numbers didn't justify betting them with this system. However, I rarely see a spread of 85 points so I'm going with this one. UCD has not won at home yet this season.

 

[JohnMolson]

very fishy result in that Hacken game.A team averaging 3 goals a game at home gets shut out by some bottom feeder:wink:

 

[Betting4Fun]

Ireland - Eircom
Bray +0.5 -145 over UC Dublin
+250/+165
Normally I have been staying away from the road teams. The numbers didn't justify betting them with this system. However, I rarely see a spread of 85 points so I'm going with this one. UCD has not won at home yet this season.

Good call with this one,very nice!!

 

[quantumleap]

very fishy result in that Hacken game.A team averaging 3 goals a game at home gets shut out by some bottom feeder:wink:

Soccer is tricky that way. Sometimes teams can get many opportunities yet not be able to put it in the goal.

I think I'm going to vote for your avatar as being my favorite on this site.

 

[quantumleap]

Good call with this one,very nice!!

Thanks B4F. Makes me wonder how many like this that I've skipped over looking only for home favorites. I'll have to keep an eye out for large differences in all matches. That's the nice thing about doing this during the summer. There are fewer leagues so I can take my time looking for opportunities such as this.

Häcken 0, Jönköpings 0, Loss, -1.00
Bray 2, UCD 2, WINNER, +0.69

YTD: -0.14

 

[quantumleap]

very fishy result in that Hacken game.A team averaging 3 goals a game at home gets shut out by some bottom feeder:wink:

http://www.svenskfotboll.se/livescore/

Häcken had 14 shots (3 on goal) and Jönköpings had 5 shots (3 on goal). Clearly Häcken played more aggressively. They were just unable to put the ball in the goal.

 

[quantumleap]

United States - MLS
Dallas -0.5 +161 over Houston
+161/+105

 

[quantumleap]

United States - MLS
Dallas -0.5 +161 over Houston
+161/+105

Dallas 2, Houston 2, Loss (in extra time), -1.00

:hanging:

YTD: -1.14

 

[quantumleap]

Sweden - Superettan
Enkoping +1/2 -103 over Sirius
+321/+250

 

[quantumleap]

Sirius 2, Enkoping 1, Loss, -1.00

Maybe I should look for more than 70 points when playing away dogs. Or perhaps only take those that are within +250.

YTD: -2.14

 

[quantumleap]

Norway - Tippeligaen
Brann -0.5 -200 over Molde
-200/-250

 

[quantumleap]

Brazil - Serie A
Internacional -1/2 -222 over Sport
-222/-300

 

[quantumleap]

The Eircom League is quickly becoming my favorite league to bet.

Ireland - Eircom
Cobh +1/2 +108 over Drogheda
+427/+240

 

[quantumleap]

Brann 3, Molde 4, Loss, -1.00
Internacional 1, Sport 1, Loss, -1.00
Cobh 0, Drogheda 4, Loss, -1.00

Today: 0-3, -3.00

YTD: -5.15

:hanging:

Just goes to show you that these large favorites can go 16-1 and then turn around and go 4-8.

 

[quantumleap]

I'm thinking that large favorites did so well early in this thread because it was the end of the season and they were all finishing to place.

I'm going to be more selective in my picks. I'll try to make picks where not only is there a discrepancy in price but also a discrepancy on one team. Oftentimes large favorites will have a 50+ point difference yet the dog in the match will be adjusted accordingly. In the case of Santos, square books have Sao Paulo +178 and Santos +162 yet the safe books have SP +170 and Santos +110 leading me to believe there is a reason they are discounting Santos more.

Brazil - Serie A
Santos +162 over Sao Paulo
+162/+110

 

[Legend-I-Aint]

Any thoughts on the Argentine league today? I have the opportunity to watch Colon/River Plate. Any thoughts on the total or a side? A little action would be fun while watching.