Germany v Brazil (Women's WC - 8am Sun)
- Germany have been the most consistent team in the tourney. Even in their draw v England they were really not tested and held much of the play. Brazil had a favorable draw and then beat the #1 team in the world, USA, in some strange circumstances (backup goalie, own goal, insane red card, etc) but have the best player in the world, Marta, and a very strong sidekick. Two very different styles of play with Brazil using speed and balls on feet while Germany use size and balls in the air. If Brazil played more together they'd always be in top 3 but they come together only for major tourneys. I'll side with the better TEAM.
Germany PK 2.4/10 @1.83 $120/100 (bookmaker...stake returned if drawn after 90')
- Germany have been the most consistent team in the tourney. Even in their draw v England they were really not tested and held much of the play. Brazil had a favorable draw and then beat the #1 team in the world, USA, in some strange circumstances (backup goalie, own goal, insane red card, etc) but have the best player in the world, Marta, and a very strong sidekick. Two very different styles of play with Brazil using speed and balls on feet while Germany use size and balls in the air. If Brazil played more together they'd always be in top 3 but they come together only for major tourneys. I'll side with the better TEAM.
Germany PK 2.4/10 @1.83 $120/100 (bookmaker...stake returned if drawn after 90')
Milan drew so parlay lost and german women won ... even so far today
one match that caught my eye in Guatemala:
Jalapa v Zacapa
- Jalapa have gone over in 5 of last 6 games with a 15/11 goal differntial, or 4.33 goals per game
- Zacapa have four straight easy overs with a 11/9 goal differential, or 5.00 goals per game
Jalapa/Zacapa over 2.5 goals 4.8/10 @1.83 $240/200 (bookmaker)
one match that caught my eye in Guatemala:
Jalapa v Zacapa
- Jalapa have gone over in 5 of last 6 games with a 15/11 goal differntial, or 4.33 goals per game
- Zacapa have four straight easy overs with a 11/9 goal differential, or 5.00 goals per game
Jalapa/Zacapa over 2.5 goals 4.8/10 @1.83 $240/200 (bookmaker)
game in a little over 2 hours
Atletico PR v Botafogo (Brazil A - 8:45 pm EST)
- Atletico are a very talented team that has underperformed all season but they've been decent at home, currently unbeaten in 10. They are barely above the relegation zone and all home matches from here out are extremely important. This is the best form they've shown all season, 4-0-2 in last 6, but must rebound from getting hammered over the weekend at Nautico. Botafogo started the tourney great but have performed poorly in the last month, possibly because of the extra games with the Copa Sudamerica. They were a disaster at River Plate last week and were beaten in the derby match vs in-form Flu and crushed at home by a bad road team in Goias...and now have 5 players suspended for this game. In league play they are just 1-1-4 in last 6 so truly two teams going in different directions. The Vasco fans were very upset before the big cup home win vs River but these last 3 defeats have them furious, and the team morale is horrible. The Arena is not the fortress it used to be and Atletico may have to scratch out another 1 goal win, but as long as they can brush off the 5-0 loss of the weekend, I really like Atl-PR tonight. Atletico-PR 4/10 @ 2.05 $200/210
Atletico PR v Botafogo (Brazil A - 8:45 pm EST)
- Atletico are a very talented team that has underperformed all season but they've been decent at home, currently unbeaten in 10. They are barely above the relegation zone and all home matches from here out are extremely important. This is the best form they've shown all season, 4-0-2 in last 6, but must rebound from getting hammered over the weekend at Nautico. Botafogo started the tourney great but have performed poorly in the last month, possibly because of the extra games with the Copa Sudamerica. They were a disaster at River Plate last week and were beaten in the derby match vs in-form Flu and crushed at home by a bad road team in Goias...and now have 5 players suspended for this game. In league play they are just 1-1-4 in last 6 so truly two teams going in different directions. The Vasco fans were very upset before the big cup home win vs River but these last 3 defeats have them furious, and the team morale is horrible. The Arena is not the fortress it used to be and Atletico may have to scratch out another 1 goal win, but as long as they can brush off the 5-0 loss of the weekend, I really like Atl-PR tonight. Atletico-PR 4/10 @ 2.05 $200/210
KC v DC United (Fri night MLS)
tough spot for a very in-form DC team. They had just 2 days rest in between the Toronto and Chivas matches and now just two days rest before this game, and have logged some serious air time with flights to/from Mexico and KC. The team is fatigued and really looking forward to this 8 day break coming up after this match. DC is 4 points ahead of NE for the supporters shield so they will certainly go for the win, but 3 games in 6 days is too much for any pro team against a decent KC squad pressing for the playoffs who have not played ONCE over that same time period. For KC, Conrad and Arnaud miss out and Conrad controls the defense, so a big loss there...not too concerned over Arnaud. Fred again misses out for DC and with DC's very slow and, hopefully, very tired defense it's a great opportunity for the Wizards to break DC's 11 game league unbeaten streak. KC have fallen back after a great start but can clinch a playoff spot this weekend by winning tonight and seeing both Cbus and LA lose. KC with a very bad h2h against Dc...
KC level ball 3/10 @2.09 $150/163
tough spot for a very in-form DC team. They had just 2 days rest in between the Toronto and Chivas matches and now just two days rest before this game, and have logged some serious air time with flights to/from Mexico and KC. The team is fatigued and really looking forward to this 8 day break coming up after this match. DC is 4 points ahead of NE for the supporters shield so they will certainly go for the win, but 3 games in 6 days is too much for any pro team against a decent KC squad pressing for the playoffs who have not played ONCE over that same time period. For KC, Conrad and Arnaud miss out and Conrad controls the defense, so a big loss there...not too concerned over Arnaud. Fred again misses out for DC and with DC's very slow and, hopefully, very tired defense it's a great opportunity for the Wizards to break DC's 11 game league unbeaten streak. KC have fallen back after a great start but can clinch a playoff spot this weekend by winning tonight and seeing both Cbus and LA lose. KC with a very bad h2h against Dc...
KC level ball 3/10 @2.09 $150/163
Veracruz v Atlante (Mex Friday night)
- Veracruz with 7 straight overs and in 6 of those, both teams scored. Atlante scoring like crazy right now with 6 straight games netting 2+ goals and have allowed a goal in 6 of last 7. Thought the last three meetings have been short on goals the previous 4 had seen at least 6 goals in each game. Atlante to miss important MF Pereyra, who has 2g and 2a this year, and regular defender Alcantar. No issues for Veracruz but they are in a must-win situation both to save their coach. I see a game similar to a few weeks ago where Necaxa came in and won 3-1. Atlante have scored in every away game and 2 or more goals in 4/5 trips, so quite a capable road team...likewise, Veracruz have scored in every home game and avg just about 2 gpg at home. As mentioned last week, every stand-alone Friday match has gone over and usually involve Veracruz or Necaxa.
Veracruz/Atlante over 2.5 goals 5/10 @1.80 $250/200
- Veracruz with 7 straight overs and in 6 of those, both teams scored. Atlante scoring like crazy right now with 6 straight games netting 2+ goals and have allowed a goal in 6 of last 7. Thought the last three meetings have been short on goals the previous 4 had seen at least 6 goals in each game. Atlante to miss important MF Pereyra, who has 2g and 2a this year, and regular defender Alcantar. No issues for Veracruz but they are in a must-win situation both to save their coach. I see a game similar to a few weeks ago where Necaxa came in and won 3-1. Atlante have scored in every away game and 2 or more goals in 4/5 trips, so quite a capable road team...likewise, Veracruz have scored in every home game and avg just about 2 gpg at home. As mentioned last week, every stand-alone Friday match has gone over and usually involve Veracruz or Necaxa.
Veracruz/Atlante over 2.5 goals 5/10 @1.80 $250/200
PSV v Willem II (Holland 1:30 pm EST)
- small bet on home handicap...PSV have won the last 5 meetings by a combined 18-2 scoreline with one 2 goal win, two 3 goal wins, and two four goal wins. Willem II have not scored an away goal this year and PSV have not allowed a home goal. Seems a good chance for 3-0 win
PSV -2 goals 2/10 @1.95 $105/100
- small bet on home handicap...PSV have won the last 5 meetings by a combined 18-2 scoreline with one 2 goal win, two 3 goal wins, and two four goal wins. Willem II have not scored an away goal this year and PSV have not allowed a home goal. Seems a good chance for 3-0 win
PSV -2 goals 2/10 @1.95 $105/100
San Luis v Puebla (mex 6pm EST)
Puebla have just one road point all season and 3 total wins, all at home, against teams with a combined road record of 0-3-12. San Luis are 4-1-0 at home and a 10/5 goal differential vs Puebla's 0-1-4 4/12 away record. Puebla miss important Argentian defender Quiroga for just the 2nd match this season...other game he missed ended in a Puebla home loss to weak Jaguares. should be a home win
San Luis 2.5/10 @1.70 $143/100
Puebla have just one road point all season and 3 total wins, all at home, against teams with a combined road record of 0-3-12. San Luis are 4-1-0 at home and a 10/5 goal differential vs Puebla's 0-1-4 4/12 away record. Puebla miss important Argentian defender Quiroga for just the 2nd match this season...other game he missed ended in a Puebla home loss to weak Jaguares. should be a home win
San Luis 2.5/10 @1.70 $143/100
San Luis got hammered 3-0
Ytd 27-28-1 $500
double Peru/Ukraine matches...
Cienciano v Sport Boys
- Sport Boys do not like the Cusco altitude with Cienciano holding a 6-1-0 23/5 advantage in last 7 home meetings. Cienciano full squad and have won 4 straight at home, allowing just 1 goal...Sport boys with just 2 wins in last 11 matches
Shakhtar v Karpaty
- the only league team in Shakhtar's class, Dynamo, beat Karpaty 7-3 at home and Shakhtar are 6-0 21/3 at home against Karpaty. Shakhtar have won 10 straight local matches while Karpaty have scored in just 3 of 6 away games. huge home win expected
Cienciano/Shakhtar double 4/10 @1.93 $215/200
Ytd 27-28-1 $500
double Peru/Ukraine matches...
Cienciano v Sport Boys
- Sport Boys do not like the Cusco altitude with Cienciano holding a 6-1-0 23/5 advantage in last 7 home meetings. Cienciano full squad and have won 4 straight at home, allowing just 1 goal...Sport boys with just 2 wins in last 11 matches
Shakhtar v Karpaty
- the only league team in Shakhtar's class, Dynamo, beat Karpaty 7-3 at home and Shakhtar are 6-0 21/3 at home against Karpaty. Shakhtar have won 10 straight local matches while Karpaty have scored in just 3 of 6 away games. huge home win expected
Cienciano/Shakhtar double 4/10 @1.93 $215/200
MK Dons v Peterborough (Johnstone's Paint Trophy - Tue 2:45)
- heavy rain this week in Milton Keynes and still coming down along with 20 mph winds. MK Dons have allowed just 3 goals in last 6 league games while Peterborough have gone under in 4 straight road league games. Slick, heavy field expected along with the wind should keep the goals down
MK Dons / Peterborough under 2.5 goals 2/10 @ 2.14 $100/114
- heavy rain this week in Milton Keynes and still coming down along with 20 mph winds. MK Dons have allowed just 3 goals in last 6 league games while Peterborough have gone under in 4 straight road league games. Slick, heavy field expected along with the wind should keep the goals down
MK Dons / Peterborough under 2.5 goals 2/10 @ 2.14 $100/114
few picks this weekend in Mexico. Might be a tricky one with so many players missing due to international matches...all picks from bookmaker, your prices may be better
Tecos v Santos (Fri Night)
- stats would point to a very easy over but Santos missing a bunch of guys. Historically these are crazy matches, many ending 5+ goals, especially when played in Guadajara...6 of last 7. Since Menotti has taken over Tecos they've won all 3 home games, each going over in goals. Their defense is still awful, having allowed more than 2 goals per game this year while Santos are the #1 offensive team in the league. Big missings all over the pitch...Tecos missing Droguett (top scorer) in midfield while Santos without top scorer Luduena and #2 scoerer Benitez but also top defender Castillo. Play should be very open and hopefully the subs can find the net. Tecos/Santos over 2.5 3/10 @ 1.77 $150/107
Atlante v Pachuca (Sat)
- Pachuca still in major freefall while Atlante are the in-form team of the tourney. Pachuca will use again their #3 keeper and miss 6 regulars to internationals and MF Gimenez, plus their coach is suspended. Atlante miss a few injured players that were not in lineup for last two wins but massive missing up front with Maldonado joining Venezuela.l He's scored half their goals this year so just a smaller bet, but still confident they can beat Pachuca, who are in disarray and basically playing their B team. Atlante 5/10 @ 2.00 $250/250
Chivas v Necaxa (Sat)
- normal biweekly bet on Necaxa over, which has failed just once at 1-1 last time out. Chivas the best defense in the league but they have a bunch of players headed to el Tri, 6 starters in total. Not sure if Bravo will return to team yet after missing midweek match due to personal issues, but might need him to score for the over to hit. Necaxa without a starting defender and a tough midfielder in addition to their top scorer who, in truth, has scored just one game in last 9. I don't see a huge difference b/w teams and a 2-1 away win would be a nice result. Necaxa away win 1/10 @ 4.00 $50/150 and Necaxa over 2.5 2.5/10 @ 1.83 $120/100
Tecos v Santos (Fri Night)
- stats would point to a very easy over but Santos missing a bunch of guys. Historically these are crazy matches, many ending 5+ goals, especially when played in Guadajara...6 of last 7. Since Menotti has taken over Tecos they've won all 3 home games, each going over in goals. Their defense is still awful, having allowed more than 2 goals per game this year while Santos are the #1 offensive team in the league. Big missings all over the pitch...Tecos missing Droguett (top scorer) in midfield while Santos without top scorer Luduena and #2 scoerer Benitez but also top defender Castillo. Play should be very open and hopefully the subs can find the net. Tecos/Santos over 2.5 3/10 @ 1.77 $150/107
Atlante v Pachuca (Sat)
- Pachuca still in major freefall while Atlante are the in-form team of the tourney. Pachuca will use again their #3 keeper and miss 6 regulars to internationals and MF Gimenez, plus their coach is suspended. Atlante miss a few injured players that were not in lineup for last two wins but massive missing up front with Maldonado joining Venezuela.l He's scored half their goals this year so just a smaller bet, but still confident they can beat Pachuca, who are in disarray and basically playing their B team. Atlante 5/10 @ 2.00 $250/250
Chivas v Necaxa (Sat)
- normal biweekly bet on Necaxa over, which has failed just once at 1-1 last time out. Chivas the best defense in the league but they have a bunch of players headed to el Tri, 6 starters in total. Not sure if Bravo will return to team yet after missing midweek match due to personal issues, but might need him to score for the over to hit. Necaxa without a starting defender and a tough midfielder in addition to their top scorer who, in truth, has scored just one game in last 9. I don't see a huge difference b/w teams and a 2-1 away win would be a nice result. Necaxa away win 1/10 @ 4.00 $50/150 and Necaxa over 2.5 2.5/10 @ 1.83 $120/100
