Uefa Cup picks for Thursday. Always play these smaller but one match I really like is Dinamo
Aris v Zaragoza
- good sized quality difference b/w Spain and Greece so Aris will play carefully, looking for ball possession and counters. Zaragoza will rest their main players and this will cripple them offensively. Aris started their season off with a 0-0 match and Zaragoza with 2/3 unders. Can't see 3 going in here with Ayala, Aimar, and Milito out for away team. Aris/Zaragoza under 2.5 goals @1.71 $100/71
Hapoel TA v AIK
- nice odds here with a very overish (at least last year) Hapoel team against AIK who've scored in 7 straight domestic matches, going o2.5 in 6 of them. Hapoel/AIK over 2.5 goals @2.10 $100/110
China (W) v New Zealand (W) - blowout ... China, playing at home, must post a huge win over the worst team in the competition
Spartak v Hacken - Hacken are concentrating on gaining entrance back into the Allvenskan as they are currently 4th in the Superettan. They just played an away match on Monday and now must travel to Moscow to face the best Russian team, Spartak, who've had 17 days to prepare. With only poor Khimki on deck Spartak will be looking to finish this home v home off tomorrow
Dinamo Bucaresti v Elfsborg - said this before but Romanian teams are always underpriced by bookies in European competition. Uefa places Romanian league #7 while Sweden rank just 28th. Dinamo had a poor start but changed coach and thrashed Poli Iasi 5-2 away from home last week. Elfsborg could only beat poor Debrecen 1-0 on aggregate to advance and have won just once in their last 7 matches against out of form GAIS. Dinamo at 1.50 is the bet of the day and will use Spartak and China to bring the odds down.
parlay Dinamo Bucaresti / China (W) / Spartak @1.844 $236/200
Aris v Zaragoza
- good sized quality difference b/w Spain and Greece so Aris will play carefully, looking for ball possession and counters. Zaragoza will rest their main players and this will cripple them offensively. Aris started their season off with a 0-0 match and Zaragoza with 2/3 unders. Can't see 3 going in here with Ayala, Aimar, and Milito out for away team. Aris/Zaragoza under 2.5 goals @1.71 $100/71
Hapoel TA v AIK
- nice odds here with a very overish (at least last year) Hapoel team against AIK who've scored in 7 straight domestic matches, going o2.5 in 6 of them. Hapoel/AIK over 2.5 goals @2.10 $100/110
China (W) v New Zealand (W) - blowout ... China, playing at home, must post a huge win over the worst team in the competition
Spartak v Hacken - Hacken are concentrating on gaining entrance back into the Allvenskan as they are currently 4th in the Superettan. They just played an away match on Monday and now must travel to Moscow to face the best Russian team, Spartak, who've had 17 days to prepare. With only poor Khimki on deck Spartak will be looking to finish this home v home off tomorrow
Dinamo Bucaresti v Elfsborg - said this before but Romanian teams are always underpriced by bookies in European competition. Uefa places Romanian league #7 while Sweden rank just 28th. Dinamo had a poor start but changed coach and thrashed Poli Iasi 5-2 away from home last week. Elfsborg could only beat poor Debrecen 1-0 on aggregate to advance and have won just once in their last 7 matches against out of form GAIS. Dinamo at 1.50 is the bet of the day and will use Spartak and China to bring the odds down.
parlay Dinamo Bucaresti / China (W) / Spartak @1.844 $236/200
Bayern v Beleneses
- Bayern huge favorites but Portuguese teams are strong enough to avoid 4 goal defeats. Bayern without Klose and Lahm and may play without Luca Toni too. 2-0 win is best guess. Bayern/Beleneses under 3 goals @2.10 $80/88
Dinamo Zagreb v Ajax
- two extremely strong offensive teams. Could be a game to see 7 goals, IMO but odds are so good they're almost too good so almost did not play this as line is very trappy.
Dinamo/Ajax over 2.5 goals @2.00 $80/80
- Bayern huge favorites but Portuguese teams are strong enough to avoid 4 goal defeats. Bayern without Klose and Lahm and may play without Luca Toni too. 2-0 win is best guess. Bayern/Beleneses under 3 goals @2.10 $80/88
Dinamo Zagreb v Ajax
- two extremely strong offensive teams. Could be a game to see 7 goals, IMO but odds are so good they're almost too good so almost did not play this as line is very trappy.
Dinamo/Ajax over 2.5 goals @2.00 $80/80
Swindon v Bournemouth (Eng D1)
Arsenal v Derby County (Eng Prem)
- Bournemouth without 7 players that started last match including pretty much the entire defense. Picked to relegate from every service in the world they can be nothing but huge underdogs for Swindon, who are nothing special themselves, but have played tough in every match including 4 teams that should see the upper half of the table.
- Derby will not win a road match this season and have max 5 draws IMO. This will be another road shutout to the tune of 2-0 or worse. Gunners in great form (unfortunately) and, while they often play down to their competition, they will win.
double Swindon/Arsenal @2.11 $225/250
Arsenal v Derby County (Eng Prem)
- Bournemouth without 7 players that started last match including pretty much the entire defense. Picked to relegate from every service in the world they can be nothing but huge underdogs for Swindon, who are nothing special themselves, but have played tough in every match including 4 teams that should see the upper half of the table.
- Derby will not win a road match this season and have max 5 draws IMO. This will be another road shutout to the tune of 2-0 or worse. Gunners in great form (unfortunately) and, while they often play down to their competition, they will win.
double Swindon/Arsenal @2.11 $225/250
two small bets on outsiders as I believe going against Leyton Orient and Bristol City is the smart thing to do as I expect they'll slide down the table into bottom half by year's end:
Eng Championship - Burnley @3.50 $80/200
Eng League One - Hartlepool @3.50 $80/200
Eng Championship - Burnley @3.50 $80/200
Eng League One - Hartlepool @3.50 $80/200
Newcastle v West Ham (8:30 EST this morning - England Premier)
- better odds than expected with Newcastle's midweek mess at Derby. Folks I guess are impressed with the Hammers' 3-1-1 start but their last 4 games were against Boro, Reading, Birmingham, and Wigan! They step up to the next level of the EPL today at considering these odds are roughly the same as Reading had for West Ham at home, there should be nice value. NC have not lost in last 7 against WH and with Owen and Viduka starting up front should win again.
Newcastle 2/10 @2.10 $100/110
- better odds than expected with Newcastle's midweek mess at Derby. Folks I guess are impressed with the Hammers' 3-1-1 start but their last 4 games were against Boro, Reading, Birmingham, and Wigan! They step up to the next level of the EPL today at considering these odds are roughly the same as Reading had for West Ham at home, there should be nice value. NC have not lost in last 7 against WH and with Owen and Viduka starting up front should win again.
Newcastle 2/10 @2.10 $100/110
Man City v Norwich (Tue England Worthless Cup)
- Norwich have one starter injured and another 3 suspended (including their captain and top defender) and a long ride to Manchester for this midweek match. They were destroyed by Wolves last weekend being outshot 18-1 and out-cornered 16-1 in what should have been a 5-0 scoreline. City will make many changes but have a deep squad and lose nothing with Geovanni up front.
Chievo v Avellino (Tue Italy Serie B)
- one of the best of Serie B against worst of Serie B. Same odds were given for Treviso at home to Avellino and they cannot be considered in Chievo's class. First midweek match for both teams but this should also favor the more talented and deeper Chievo squad.
double ManCity / Chievo 3.5/10 @1.89 $175/156 (bookmaker)
looking at some singles on Liverpool, Arsenal, Pompey, and Cardiff. People will fall all over the news of Arsenal and Pompey using reserves so prices will rise. Liverpool B are better than Reading B and Cardiff are a solid road team. No singles taken yet.
- Norwich have one starter injured and another 3 suspended (including their captain and top defender) and a long ride to Manchester for this midweek match. They were destroyed by Wolves last weekend being outshot 18-1 and out-cornered 16-1 in what should have been a 5-0 scoreline. City will make many changes but have a deep squad and lose nothing with Geovanni up front.
Chievo v Avellino (Tue Italy Serie B)
- one of the best of Serie B against worst of Serie B. Same odds were given for Treviso at home to Avellino and they cannot be considered in Chievo's class. First midweek match for both teams but this should also favor the more talented and deeper Chievo squad.
double ManCity / Chievo 3.5/10 @1.89 $175/156 (bookmaker)
looking at some singles on Liverpool, Arsenal, Pompey, and Cardiff. People will fall all over the news of Arsenal and Pompey using reserves so prices will rise. Liverpool B are better than Reading B and Cardiff are a solid road team. No singles taken yet.
Fulham v Bolton
- matchup between two of the three worst defensive teams in the EPL. All four of Fulham's home matches have ended up with 3+ goals in the net and even weak Bolton should score at Craven Cottage. Bolton started out with five straight overs before their run of 3 unders but they've conceded in every away match including two here in the 2-1 loss in August and one last week at poor Rabotnicki. Fulham will use a strong lineup while Bolton will bring in some changes as they've had a busy 10 days. At roughly the same price I trust 3 goals a bit more than a home win. odss at bookmaker
Fulham/Bolton over 2.5 goals 3.5/10 @2.00 $175/175
- matchup between two of the three worst defensive teams in the EPL. All four of Fulham's home matches have ended up with 3+ goals in the net and even weak Bolton should score at Craven Cottage. Bolton started out with five straight overs before their run of 3 unders but they've conceded in every away match including two here in the 2-1 loss in August and one last week at poor Rabotnicki. Fulham will use a strong lineup while Bolton will bring in some changes as they've had a busy 10 days. At roughly the same price I trust 3 goals a bit more than a home win. odss at bookmaker
Fulham/Bolton over 2.5 goals 3.5/10 @2.00 $175/175
Osasuna v Levante (spain la liga)
- a tricky match in that goals may be tough to come by but, based on preseason ratings, this should be a certain home win. Levante have looked very poor in the first 4 rounds which has assured everyone that the prediction of them finishing in 20th seems to be correct. They lost at home to a team expected to be lower table and now face a team expected to be upper midtable. Osasuna with poor offensive start to the season but their play is not so bad and they have some very talented players up front. Last year Osasuna won both matches by a combined 6-2 score and should be no different this year.
Osasuna home win 4/10 @ 1.80 $200/160
- a tricky match in that goals may be tough to come by but, based on preseason ratings, this should be a certain home win. Levante have looked very poor in the first 4 rounds which has assured everyone that the prediction of them finishing in 20th seems to be correct. They lost at home to a team expected to be lower table and now face a team expected to be upper midtable. Osasuna with poor offensive start to the season but their play is not so bad and they have some very talented players up front. Last year Osasuna won both matches by a combined 6-2 score and should be no different this year.
Osasuna home win 4/10 @ 1.80 $200/160
thx Rhino, adding a small parlay with two from Germany Bundesliga and one from English Carling Cup
Blackburn v Birmingham
- Blackburn with some goal scoring problems lately but should be resolved against the poor Birmingham defense. With a big match on the weekend and a limited squad Birmingham will use their reserves while Blackburn send out a strong side.
Bayern v Cottbus
- no chance for Cottbus who've failed to score away this year and have lost 7 straight league games to Bayern
Bielefeld v Hannover
- Bielefeld 5-1 overs on the seaon and Hannover the same
Blackburn + Bayern Munich + Bielefeld over 2.5 goals 2/10 @3.50 $100/250
Blackburn v Birmingham
- Blackburn with some goal scoring problems lately but should be resolved against the poor Birmingham defense. With a big match on the weekend and a limited squad Birmingham will use their reserves while Blackburn send out a strong side.
Bayern v Cottbus
- no chance for Cottbus who've failed to score away this year and have lost 7 straight league games to Bayern
Bielefeld v Hannover
- Bielefeld 5-1 overs on the seaon and Hannover the same
Blackburn + Bayern Munich + Bielefeld over 2.5 goals 2/10 @3.50 $100/250
small totals double in Mexico (one game tonight and the other tomorrow night)
Tecos v Morelia
- every Friday night match has seen 3+ goals this year with either Tecos or Veracruz featured in most of them. Tecos an offense-first style with 4/4 home overs while Morelia have scored and conceded in every road match. h2h with 5 straight overs as well
Pachuca v Necaxa
- normal biweekly bet on Necaxa over. Pachuca down to their 3rd keeper who is on the u20 team making his first start and Necaxa a very good counter team. Pachuca got lit up in midweek and are a real defensive disaster right now, allowing 13 in their last 5 games. Many goals expected
double Tecos over 2.5 with Pachuca over 2.5 2.5/10 @ 3.20 $125/275
Tecos v Morelia
- every Friday night match has seen 3+ goals this year with either Tecos or Veracruz featured in most of them. Tecos an offense-first style with 4/4 home overs while Morelia have scored and conceded in every road match. h2h with 5 straight overs as well
Pachuca v Necaxa
- normal biweekly bet on Necaxa over. Pachuca down to their 3rd keeper who is on the u20 team making his first start and Necaxa a very good counter team. Pachuca got lit up in midweek and are a real defensive disaster right now, allowing 13 in their last 5 games. Many goals expected
double Tecos over 2.5 with Pachuca over 2.5 2.5/10 @ 3.20 $125/275
