back with some small bets from england:
Championship
West Brom / Man U double 125/100
-WBA play the worst team in the league and United will hammer Sunderland
Sheffield Wed o2.5 100/100
-showcase match on Setanta this morning. Wednesday defense is miserable allowing 10 in 1st 3 matches while scoring in each of them. Bristol City have also scored and conceded in all 3, going over in every one.
League One
Carlisle u2.5 120/100
- two fairly even teams (expected mid/bottom table) that have played all unders in each of their 3 matches. H2H has 4 straight unders as well
League Two
Shrewsbury 103/100
- Shrewsbury tipped in everyone's playoff contenders while Grimsby town expected to struggle on bottom half of the table. Shrews were hammered at title contenders, MK Dons, last week but won first two matches. Grimsby have drawn all 3 games but against poor sides, nothing of Shrewsbury's quality. Small bet as Shrews have drawn 3 straight at home to Grimsby.
two possible away wins at great odds are Walsall and Northampton for those so inclined.
GL
Championship
West Brom / Man U double 125/100
-WBA play the worst team in the league and United will hammer Sunderland
Sheffield Wed o2.5 100/100
-showcase match on Setanta this morning. Wednesday defense is miserable allowing 10 in 1st 3 matches while scoring in each of them. Bristol City have also scored and conceded in all 3, going over in every one.
League One
Carlisle u2.5 120/100
- two fairly even teams (expected mid/bottom table) that have played all unders in each of their 3 matches. H2H has 4 straight unders as well
League Two
Shrewsbury 103/100
- Shrewsbury tipped in everyone's playoff contenders while Grimsby town expected to struggle on bottom half of the table. Shrews were hammered at title contenders, MK Dons, last week but won first two matches. Grimsby have drawn all 3 games but against poor sides, nothing of Shrewsbury's quality. Small bet as Shrews have drawn 3 straight at home to Grimsby.
two possible away wins at great odds are Walsall and Northampton for those so inclined.
GL
Good luck. I'm also on the over for Sheffield Wednesday. I think we've been screwed. Wednesday should have had a penalty for what was one of the most blatant handballs I've ever seen. The commentators and pundits have just been going crazy, and calling it a scandalous decision. How could the linesman or ref not notice?
That's the reason why football is very hard to bet on because there are so many variables on the field, particularly the human element of the ref/linesmen's decision-making, that can affect the game.
Bristol City are defending like crazy though. Alot of goal line clearances.
Good luck with the rest, and hopefully there are a couple more goals in this.
That's the reason why football is very hard to bet on because there are so many variables on the field, particularly the human element of the ref/linesmen's decision-making, that can affect the game.
Bristol City are defending like crazy though. Alot of goal line clearances.
Good luck with the rest, and hopefully there are a couple more goals in this.
yes I really cannot believe that play, nor the offside call shortly thereafter. Defender with left arm outstretched and ball clearly flew over his head and struck the left arm. Match should have gone over in the 1st 25' but instead ended 0-1. Some great clearances by Bristol City but even they had some horrible plays on 3 v 1 breaks, etc. At 25' think it was 6-2 SOG and probably the one shot that went wide at 3' was as good a chance as any of them. oh well, to the next games we go...
Toluca v Necaxa (Sunday)
- This really should be the third time I posted this system this year but I wanted to watch Westerhof's return to the Mexican league to see if it would hold true, and it has. Basically Westerhof loves offensive football but it seems to work better away than at home for some reason. His teams always produce big goal numbers in road games and cannot believe bookies have yet to catch on and simply post a 3 goal line on a Necaxa match. Anyway, this leaves a great chance tomorrow as Toluca are a team who play offensively at home but have been prone to defensive mistakes all season.
I went back through Westerhof's career in Mexico and found the following, as relating to road matches his teams have played. Including this season his teams have played 25 road matches posting just 2 clean sheets but scoring in 18/25. The goal differential was 50/34 producing an average of 3.36 goals per road contest. Both of Necaxa's road matches have gone over this year as have Toluca's home games. Keep taking Necaxa road overs until bookies adjust, IMO
Toluca/Necaxa over 2.5 goals $270/250
- This really should be the third time I posted this system this year but I wanted to watch Westerhof's return to the Mexican league to see if it would hold true, and it has. Basically Westerhof loves offensive football but it seems to work better away than at home for some reason. His teams always produce big goal numbers in road games and cannot believe bookies have yet to catch on and simply post a 3 goal line on a Necaxa match. Anyway, this leaves a great chance tomorrow as Toluca are a team who play offensively at home but have been prone to defensive mistakes all season.
I went back through Westerhof's career in Mexico and found the following, as relating to road matches his teams have played. Including this season his teams have played 25 road matches posting just 2 clean sheets but scoring in 18/25. The goal differential was 50/34 producing an average of 3.36 goals per road contest. Both of Necaxa's road matches have gone over this year as have Toluca's home games. Keep taking Necaxa road overs until bookies adjust, IMO
Toluca/Necaxa over 2.5 goals $270/250
Cruzeiro v Gremio
- We have the highest scoring home team facing the lowest scoring road team in Brazil as Cruzeiro have knocked in 32 home goals while Gremio have scored just 7 times away from home. Aside from Sao Paulo, Cruzeiro clearly the in-form team in Brazil with just one loss in 10 and 5 straight home wins with 17 goals scored in those. Cruzeiro dominates the h2h with 7-0-1 in last 8 league meetings and 4-0-0 11/3 at home. Cruzeiro had their streak of 9 straight games of scoring 2+ goals snapped at Juventude and should see the return of three important players that missed out last match (Guilherme, Thiago Heleno, and Fernandinho). Gremio see 3 starters miss out and have their huge derby match against Inter with 5 players just one yellow card away from being suspended for that game. predict Cruzeiro 2-0
Cruzeiro home win @1.75 $240/180
- We have the highest scoring home team facing the lowest scoring road team in Brazil as Cruzeiro have knocked in 32 home goals while Gremio have scored just 7 times away from home. Aside from Sao Paulo, Cruzeiro clearly the in-form team in Brazil with just one loss in 10 and 5 straight home wins with 17 goals scored in those. Cruzeiro dominates the h2h with 7-0-1 in last 8 league meetings and 4-0-0 11/3 at home. Cruzeiro had their streak of 9 straight games of scoring 2+ goals snapped at Juventude and should see the return of three important players that missed out last match (Guilherme, Thiago Heleno, and Fernandinho). Gremio see 3 starters miss out and have their huge derby match against Inter with 5 players just one yellow card away from being suspended for that game. predict Cruzeiro 2-0
Cruzeiro home win @1.75 $240/180
Leyton Orient v Bournemouth (Eng League One)
- wacky odds here that area based strictly on the current records of the squads. However you slice it the O are the worst team in Division One despite their miracle start to the season. They lost basically a full team of players from last year's squad that narrowly avoided relegation and, IMO, have no prayer of staying up again despite their top-of-the-table position. Bournemouth are $hit as well so I understand the O being a slight favorite, maybe 2.00 or so sure...but 1.70? wrong!! The same fixture last year saw Bournemouth get max 3.33 and most bookies like 3.00 yet everyone is 4.00 or higher this season, when Orient are unquestionably weaker? I've ggotta give Bournemouth a shot at odds like 4+ as they can just as easily win the match 3-0 as they can lose 3-0. The most minimum of bets as this definitely follow my motto that when you bet $hit you get $hit but Orient are no 1.7 favorites to ANY team in League One. BTW, if Orient keep going as they are expect to see many bets against them here.
Bournemouth away win @4.10 $50/155
- wacky odds here that area based strictly on the current records of the squads. However you slice it the O are the worst team in Division One despite their miracle start to the season. They lost basically a full team of players from last year's squad that narrowly avoided relegation and, IMO, have no prayer of staying up again despite their top-of-the-table position. Bournemouth are $hit as well so I understand the O being a slight favorite, maybe 2.00 or so sure...but 1.70? wrong!! The same fixture last year saw Bournemouth get max 3.33 and most bookies like 3.00 yet everyone is 4.00 or higher this season, when Orient are unquestionably weaker? I've ggotta give Bournemouth a shot at odds like 4+ as they can just as easily win the match 3-0 as they can lose 3-0. The most minimum of bets as this definitely follow my motto that when you bet $hit you get $hit but Orient are no 1.7 favorites to ANY team in League One. BTW, if Orient keep going as they are expect to see many bets against them here.
Bournemouth away win @4.10 $50/155
here it is:
Honduras v Costa Rica
- I spent a lot of time on this match trying to find reasons why Costa Rica are such great favorites and finally have to concede that they are not. The match will be played on a neutral field in Hartford, CT in the USA and these are two national teams headed in opposite directions. Costa Rica have done well in friendlies at home but their overall program has hit the skids in the last year. They played a poor Gold Cup in June, winning only one match over Guadeloupe, and were without offensive ideas for most of the tourney still relying on 30-somethings Centeno and Gomez to generate their offense. Their back four is comprised of 3 domestic players and Gonzales Segares of Chicago Fire which lacks quality, but their goalie Porras is very good. Today, Honduras will pair Carlo Costly up front for the 1st time with David Suazo and they may well form the best striking partnership in Concacaf. They flamed out in the Gold Cup against Guadeloupe after looking like world beaters taking down Mexico and hammering Cuba and just a few weeks ago lost to poor El Salvador, so they are very motivated to win this match against big rival Costa Rica. Basically I see Canada/Costa Rica/Honduras as the clear 3-5 teams in Concacaf but with nothing really separating them so no reason for Honduras to see these odds on a neutral field. Eloratings would agree as they place these teams 50-51-52 in the world and FIFA list them 52-53-57. Other than Carlos Pavon they have their full team here and a Suazo/Costly striking tandem surely must find goals against Costa Rica. Honduras with a nice history in the US with 4 straight friendly wins against Central American sides here in just the last 11 months. predict Honduras 2-1 win
Honduras 2.5/10 @3.50 $125/312.50 (5dimes - expekt have 3.80)
Honduras v Costa Rica
- I spent a lot of time on this match trying to find reasons why Costa Rica are such great favorites and finally have to concede that they are not. The match will be played on a neutral field in Hartford, CT in the USA and these are two national teams headed in opposite directions. Costa Rica have done well in friendlies at home but their overall program has hit the skids in the last year. They played a poor Gold Cup in June, winning only one match over Guadeloupe, and were without offensive ideas for most of the tourney still relying on 30-somethings Centeno and Gomez to generate their offense. Their back four is comprised of 3 domestic players and Gonzales Segares of Chicago Fire which lacks quality, but their goalie Porras is very good. Today, Honduras will pair Carlo Costly up front for the 1st time with David Suazo and they may well form the best striking partnership in Concacaf. They flamed out in the Gold Cup against Guadeloupe after looking like world beaters taking down Mexico and hammering Cuba and just a few weeks ago lost to poor El Salvador, so they are very motivated to win this match against big rival Costa Rica. Basically I see Canada/Costa Rica/Honduras as the clear 3-5 teams in Concacaf but with nothing really separating them so no reason for Honduras to see these odds on a neutral field. Eloratings would agree as they place these teams 50-51-52 in the world and FIFA list them 52-53-57. Other than Carlos Pavon they have their full team here and a Suazo/Costly striking tandem surely must find goals against Costa Rica. Honduras with a nice history in the US with 4 straight friendly wins against Central American sides here in just the last 11 months. predict Honduras 2-1 win
Honduras 2.5/10 @3.50 $125/312.50 (5dimes - expekt have 3.80)
Flamengo v Cruzeiro (Brazil A - Wed night)
- In 12 matches at Maracana Flamengo have scored in every one and conceded in 10/12. Cruzeiro with 11 away matches this year scored in 10/11 and 2 or more goals 8 times. If Cruzeiro have any hope to catch Sao Paulo they must get three points, not one, and Flamengo also need to win their home games to avoid the drop so if 1-1 I'd expect both sides to press for the winner. Cruzeiro 9-2 over on the road and 20-4 o/u 2.5 this season while Flamengo have gone over 2.5 goals 9 of 12 at home. No team is even close to Cruzeiro's 2.33 goals per game average and both teams are allowing more than 1.5 goals per game. I realize this is just a bunch of stats and odds are low but this game hits 3 goals 75% of the time. plenty of matches in Euro 2008 today to cut the odds down and here's what I chose:
Fla/Cruz o2.5 + Cyprus + Spain $200/170
Fla/Cruz o2.5 + Japan women $100/101
GL!
- In 12 matches at Maracana Flamengo have scored in every one and conceded in 10/12. Cruzeiro with 11 away matches this year scored in 10/11 and 2 or more goals 8 times. If Cruzeiro have any hope to catch Sao Paulo they must get three points, not one, and Flamengo also need to win their home games to avoid the drop so if 1-1 I'd expect both sides to press for the winner. Cruzeiro 9-2 over on the road and 20-4 o/u 2.5 this season while Flamengo have gone over 2.5 goals 9 of 12 at home. No team is even close to Cruzeiro's 2.33 goals per game average and both teams are allowing more than 1.5 goals per game. I realize this is just a bunch of stats and odds are low but this game hits 3 goals 75% of the time. plenty of matches in Euro 2008 today to cut the odds down and here's what I chose:
Fla/Cruz o2.5 + Cyprus + Spain $200/170
Fla/Cruz o2.5 + Japan women $100/101
GL!
waiting on Japan women and I'll update that bet. the 1st parlay won...
Veracruz v Necaxa (Mexico Friday night)
- here we go again...it's time for Necaxa to play a road match and bookies again decide on a 2.5 goal total. Someone blasted the early odds at pinnacle but still very nice odds available. Veracruz are 3/3 on home overs and Necaxa 3/3 road overs. In his 26 road matches as a Mexican club coach his teams have a 54/34 differential for a 3.38 gpg average. Match is on Friday night ... one glaring negative is Veracruz misses striker Mancilla who has scored 3 home goals this year.
Veracruz/Necaxa over 2.5 goals 5/10 @1.877 $250/219
Veracruz v Necaxa (Mexico Friday night)
- here we go again...it's time for Necaxa to play a road match and bookies again decide on a 2.5 goal total. Someone blasted the early odds at pinnacle but still very nice odds available. Veracruz are 3/3 on home overs and Necaxa 3/3 road overs. In his 26 road matches as a Mexican club coach his teams have a 54/34 differential for a 3.38 gpg average. Match is on Friday night ... one glaring negative is Veracruz misses striker Mancilla who has scored 3 home goals this year.
Veracruz/Necaxa over 2.5 goals 5/10 @1.877 $250/219
Figueirense v Juventude - six pointer here with both teams looking to avoid relegation. The Figueira debut a new coach, Gallo, and will be without Ruy, Fernandes and Frontini all regulars. Juventude have played OK lately but just transfered important Leonardo Silva and have a team full of injuries including their entire starting midfield and two defenders. When you take into account the transfer of Leonardo Silva you see they will basically field just one regular in the defense. Still, these "very clear" situations often lose in Brazil and Figueira's 3 missings are strong players but Juventude are always a miserable traveler (2-0-10 this year, 2-2-15 last year) and should lose by a few goals.
double with England women for Monday - England in must win situation and should defeat poor Argentina by 2+ goals. Very small team that will face the same problems with England's size as they did with Germany
Figueira + England women 4.5/10 @1.906 $225/204
double with England women for Monday - England in must win situation and should defeat poor Argentina by 2+ goals. Very small team that will face the same problems with England's size as they did with Germany
Figueira + England women 4.5/10 @1.906 $225/204
Sheffield Wednesday v Burnley (Tue Eng Championship)
- Don't read too much into these 1-0 results for Wed as their defense is still poor. Both matches were quite offensive and could have gone over in 30 minutes. Now they face a very daunting strike force of Akinbyi, Lafferty, and Gray. Burnley not much for defense either having allowed a goal in every match and 2 goals in 3 of those 4.
Shef Wed / Burnley o2.5 goals @2.00 (bookmaker) $150/150
- Don't read too much into these 1-0 results for Wed as their defense is still poor. Both matches were quite offensive and could have gone over in 30 minutes. Now they face a very daunting strike force of Akinbyi, Lafferty, and Gray. Burnley not much for defense either having allowed a goal in every match and 2 goals in 3 of those 4.
Shef Wed / Burnley o2.5 goals @2.00 (bookmaker) $150/150
