Soccer by Rolltide

[rolltide]

small double against the worst teams in English Conference (both Sat)

Stafford Rangers v Cambridge Utd
- Stafford with one win in 15 v Cambridge who've lost just once in 15. Cambridge have the 2nd best defense in the league and Stafford the worst offense. away win
Northwich v Exeter
- home team has two points in 15 games while Exeter just two losses all season. Northwich may be motivated by news that a group has come in to potentially save the club, but the same group reported yesterday that their 1st item of business will be to cut wages. away win

double Cambridge/Exeter 2/10 @3.05 $100/205 (bookmaker)

 

[rolltide]

Sunday in Guatemala...bookmaker
Zacapa at Suchitepequez
- two smaller teams of Guatemala and the most in form of the league, each with 11 points in last 6 games. Suchi unbeaten on season at home and 3-0-0 L3 while Zacapa winless on the road. Zacapa are the team I posted a few weeks back that score and concede like crazy but missing a starting defender and their top scorer Motta will face a full home team. Insane odds worth a couple of units ...
Suchitepequez 2/10 @ 5.00 $100/400

 

[rolltide]

in mex sides lost and totals won
eng double lost
suchi won 7-1

YTD 32-32-1 $703

 

[rolltide]

Fiji v New Zealand (Oceanic WC qualifier)
- pretty confused at the price on Fiji here. Yes they are clearly the #3 soccer team in the Oceanic group behind Australia and New Zealand but the gap is not so great b/w Fiji and New Zealand. Fifa rank Fiji above NZ, 119 v 156, and Eloratings have it 105 for Fiji v 74 for NZ. Last week's match in NZ was postponed as they would not allow the Fijian keeper into the country but this one should go off as planned. Don't get me wrong, NZ are rightfully favored but if played 10 times in Fiji, the home team would win more than once. Fiji 1/10 @12.00 $50/550 live text updates of the match will be available at www.oceaniafootball.com on Tue night (USA time)

 

[hm2.0]

Aussies are in the AFC.

Here's an article from FIFA's site:

The Bureau of the Organising Committee for the FIFA World Cup ™ today confirmed the cancellation of the 2010 FIFA World Cup South Africa™, OFC preliminary competition match between New Zealand and Fiji, originally scheduled to be played in Auckland on 13 October 2007.
The Bureau took this decision as a result of the New Zealand government's refusal to grant a visa to the Fijian goalkeeper, Simione Tamanisau, thus depriving the Fijian team of being able to field its full team in the upcoming qualifying match.
Upon review of the situation, the Bureau found that in this case, the goalkeeper should have the right to play. Therefore, in order to preserve this sporting principle as well as the competitive integrity of the 2010 FIFA World Cup preliminary competition, FIFA could not allow the match to take place under the current conditions.
In view of the above situation, the Bureau will meet before the end of this month to decide when and where this fixture will take place.
FIFA also confirmed that the second leg of the series, the Fiji-New Zealand match to be played on 17 October 2007 at Churchill Park in Lautoka, Fiji, will take place as originally scheduled.
Furthermore, FIFA would like to emphasise the cooperation and good faith efforts of New Zealand Football, the Fiji Football Association and the Oceania Football Confederation in their respective attempts to resolve this issue.

 

[rolltide]

yes I know the aussies have now been moved to the AFC but I was just trying to explain they dynamic that had always been Aussies a very clear #1 then New Zealand and Fiji a much closer 2-3.

 

[rolltide]

RBNY at LA Galaxy (MLS Thursday)
BruceArena is never one to take these exhibition-type games too seriously, and his eye will be solely on the playoffs. Either due to injuries or suspensions RBNY are without Kovalenko, Reyna, Magee, and Goldthwaite and expected to rest at least 4-5 others. Their road form has been terrible and with nothing to get out of this looong trip other than injuries and red cards, I expect almost full reserves against a pretty spirited Galaxy team. Becks expected to see some action on Thursday and, while they were very poor against Toronto, LA's form cannot be questioned. Will be a tough ride to win at home on Thur then AT chicago, which guarantees a playoff spot, but a win at home and a tie in Chi-town may be enough. If they do have to win on Sunday after beating NYRB that would mean needing 7 straight victories which is a rarity in MLS (done once in last 8 years I think). Not to be a conspiracy theorist but a near-healthy Becks PLUS the prospects of having the Galaxy reach the playoffs must be making MLS' mouths water and a red card or two to the Red Bulls would not shock me. Let's face it, this league needs all the exposure they can get and if their marquee player does not make the playoffs the ratings drop badly. So why would Arena risk getting his top players sent off when that means they'd miss the playoff game against New England? Also, I believe Vide comes in 1 yellow card shy of suspension so IMO, no way Arena risks these guys. It's also perfect timing for the MLS to gain some solid Los Angeles support as both of their baseball teams are done, they have no NFL, and basketball several weeks away so LA and Chivas USA making the playoffs could give them some key air time in the next few weeks in one of the country's most populous cities. LA Galaxy 6/10 @ 2.00 $300/300

 

[rolltide]

Japan v Egypt (Wed morn friendly)
- Japan in good form since Aisan cup with a friendly win over Cameroon, draw at Austria, and a win over Swiss on neutral field. They are 9-1 in their last 10 friendlies played on home soil and will face an Egyptian team that has trouble scoring away from home. In their last 5 matches Egypt have failed to score more than once over mostly outmatched opponents, except for the Ivory Coast which ended 0-0 in a friendly they played in France. Eloratings show japan in 31st and Egypt in 39th while FIFA place the teams in 34th and 43rd both with teams going in opposite directions...Japan up and Egypt down. Most of Egypt's regulars play for club team Al-Ahly and those players will not be attending this match...from middleastfootball.com
“The manager has agreed the release of all Al-Ahly players to give the club a better chance to represent Egypt at a club level when against Etoile de Sahel on October 27 for the CAF Champions League final first-leg,” stated the Egypt FA official website on Monday.
Japan not full though missing perhaps their 3 most well known players in Nakamura, Takahara, and Inamoto but that 9-1 home friendly record cannot be overlooked
doubling them with France who will have no trouble home v Lithuania
Japan/France 2/10 @1.90 $100/90

Russia v England
- great run England are on with 5 straight 3-0 wins but a trip to Russia will not be easy on the fake grass. Including friendlies Russia has lost just once in 18 matches on home soil, 1-0 to Brazil, so obviously not easy to beat at home. England with obvious wins away to Estonia, Andorra, and Macedonia but Russia just as easy a time with those squads, difference being that England lost in Croatia while Russia drew. Tight match expected but odds for PK line are too good for me to pass up on Russia against a largely untested road team with England, who will miss important players like captain Terry, Ashley Cole, Beckham, and most probably Lampard. As per the norm even in one of the easiest groups England have found a way to make qualifying difficult and, though they've come back in great fashion, I expect Russia to do no worse than draw at home.
Russia PK 3/10 @ 2.25 $150/186

 

[averick]

Just to let you know Terry will most probably be back against Russia. He is the kind who will play with pain and we will most probably see him in defence.

MOSCOW (AFP) - England's bid to clinch their place at the Euro 2008 finals have been bolstered by signs that captain John Terry will be back at the helm for their qualifying clash with Russia here on Wednesday.

The Chelsea defender, who missed Saturday's 3-0 win over Estonia with a knee injury, has returned to training and, barring a fresh setback, will return to a defence that is steeling itself for a testing evening in the Russian capital.

 

[averick]

Read on soccernet that he suffered a locked knee during training so he's now very doubtful. guess he won't be playing after all.

BOL to you

 

[rolltide]

fiji 0-2
russia 2-1
france 2-0
Japan 4-1

YTD 34-33-1 $929

LA pending Thur

 

[hm2.0]

nice goin, rolltide.

Fiji didn't pan out but it was worth a shot.

 

[hm2.0]

RBNY at LA Galaxy (MLS Thursday)
BruceArena is never one to take these exhibition-type games too seriously, and his eye will be solely on the playoffs. Either due to injuries or suspensions RBNY are without Kovalenko, Reyna, Magee, and Goldthwaite and expected to rest at least 4-5 others. Their road form has been terrible and with nothing to get out of this looong trip other than injuries and red cards, I expect almost full reserves against a pretty spirited Galaxy team. Becks expected to see some action on Thursday and, while they were very poor against Toronto, LA's form cannot be questioned. Will be a tough ride to win at home on Thur then AT chicago, which guarantees a playoff spot, but a win at home and a tie in Chi-town may be enough. If they do have to win on Sunday after beating NYRB that would mean needing 7 straight victories which is a rarity in MLS (done once in last 8 years I think). Not to be a conspiracy theorist but a near-healthy Becks PLUS the prospects of having the Galaxy reach the playoffs must be making MLS' mouths water and a red card or two to the Red Bulls would not shock me. Let's face it, this league needs all the exposure they can get and if their marquee player does not make the playoffs the ratings drop badly. So why would Arena risk getting his top players sent off when that means they'd miss the playoff game against New England? Also, I believe Vide comes in 1 yellow card shy of suspension so IMO, no way Arena risks these guys. It's also perfect timing for the MLS to gain some solid Los Angeles support as both of their baseball teams are done, they have no NFL, and basketball several weeks away so LA and Chivas USA making the playoffs could give them some key air time in the next few weeks in one of the country's most populous cities. LA Galaxy 6/10 @ 2.00 $300/300

I can't argue w/ your rationale...I am still looking at this one myself, we shall see.

Galaxy has been at their best the last few weeks, so perhaps they should let Beckham rest and get fit for the playoffs (if they qualify) and not change anything.

Red Bull haven't played all that well, in well, two months. Def. shaky and could see another high-scoring match b/w these two.

 

[rolltide]

La 1-1

Ytd 34-34-1 $629

 

[rolltide]

Jalapa v Suchitepequez (guatemala)
- interesting the line for over moved from 1.67 to 1.74 when I would price it more like 1.40 so definite play on the over. Jalapa have reached 3+ in 8 of last 9 games including 4/4 away this season and last match at Suchi ended 4-2. Ssuchi have scored in 7 straight matches (knocked in 7 last week alon) with 5 of those matches ending with 3+ goals. They're 3-1 over at home this year and have reached 3+ goals in 7 of 8 home games dating back to last year. Jalapa/Suchi over 2.5 goals 7/10 @1.74 $350/260 (bookmaker)

also
Start/Odd (Norway) over 3 4/10 @1.77 $200/154
- recent stats and h2h, goes in 5'

 

[rolltide]

Suchi 3-1
Odd 2-0 (thought the over was in the bag with 2-0 at 27' but Odd, who had allowed 23 goals in L7 got the clean sheet)

Ytd 35-35-1 $689

 

[rolltide]

Universitario v Melgar (Peru Tue night)
- Melgar by far the most underish team in Peru with their matches seeing a total of 18 goals in 13 games. They have the worst offense but the 2nd best defense and will face a similar team in Universitario. La U have scored 14 times in 12 games but have the league's best defense, allowing just 11. Melgar are 2-11 o/u this season and a perfect 0-6 o/u away with a total of just 5 goals. The earlier meeting this season ended 1-0 and 4 of last 6 meetings have seen less than 3 goals. Universitario/Melgar under 2.5 goals 4/10 @1.91 $200/182 (bookmaker)

 

[rolltide]

Ytd 35-36-1 $489

 

[rolltide]

sorry, no time for writeups but a few plays with one or two more coming

double Real Madrid / Dinamo Bucharesti (CL + Romania)
- Real/Dinamo 4/10 @ 2.00 $200/200

BJK v Liverpool (CL)
- BJK +1/2 goal 2/10 @ 2.40 $100/140

 

[rolltide]

adding one for UEFA Thursday and may add once handicap is available

Red Star v Bayern (UEFA Cup)
- <b> Red Star 1/10 @ 6.00 $50/250 </B>