Freddy Wills
September 30th Plays:
Cubs Run Line Game #1 Action (Morton/Lilly) (-125) (5-Dime POD)
I'm going with the Cubs in game 1 they are 4-0 in their last 4 game 1's! They will be sending their ace to the mound in Ted Lilly who has been a different creature at home and during the day. Also as we know the Cubs are simply a day team this year they have scored more runs per 9 during the day than at night. Pittsburgh on the other hand is the opposite with -0.77 runs created per 27 outs during the day than at night. The same is for their pitcher Charlie Morton who struggles on the road and even more during the day. Pirates have also lost 10 games to the Cubs this year and all 10 including last nights 6-0 defeat by 1+ run! 78% of the Pirates road losses have been by 1 run.
Let's go over the starting pitchers!
Charlie Morton, I have been right on him a lot this year. A former opponent of mine I know him a little bit better than many others. He's just not been the same on the road. He is still a growing pitcher and struggles with his control and locating his pitches around the plate. On the road this year he has a 1-5 record and 7.45 ERA compared to his home ERA of 3.10. He's been significantly worse against LH hitters and during the day where he posts an 11.65 ERA. In his 2 career starts against the Cubs he has not gotten out of the third inning and has given up 14 ER. I expect that to improve, but it won't be nearly enough against the Cubs LHP Ted Lilly.
Lilly has just been amazing at home this year with a 1.60 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP. During the day is his best time to pitch where he has an 8-3 record with a 2.55 ERA and 0.98 ERA. He has two starts vs. the Priates this year and had 14 K"s in 13 IP giving up 4 ER this year. I expect an even more dominating performance on Wednesday as this will be his last start of the 2009 season. September has been his best month for pitching over the last three years with a 10-4 record and a 3.05 ERA. It has been no different this year as he has a 1.54 ERA in his last 5 starts with a 0.86 WHIP. Pirates are 12=39 in their last 51 road games vs. LH starter and 2-8 in their last 10 with Morton as a dog. Pirates are also 3-14 their last 17 in Chicago and Cubs are 21-5 at home when Lilly starts L26. I love the run line in this situation especially with the Pirates bullpen struggles over the last 10 games they have a 6.68 ERA while the Cubs have a 2.15 ERA. Along with that is the Pirates struggles to get on base vs. LH pitching with a .207 average.
Take Hawaii +4.5 (3-Dime National Stage Showdon)(1-5 scale)
I understand it may be hard to over look how much traveling Hawaii has had to do so far this season with their third road game in 4. However, it appears Hawaii is back to their old tricks with their passing game returning to what it was under Colt Brenan, but this time it's under Greg Alexander.
Alexander leads the nation in passing offense with 423 yards per game and they are also first in pass efficiency. They will face a LA Tech secondary that has a lot of question marks. Even their head coach, Derek Dooley, is doubting their abilities "I'm still concerned about our secondary, especially the corner." They are moving a few guys around, from safety to corner, but overall it will be the pass rush that will have to make the difference in this one. However, LA Tech that does feature a stronger pass rush than it has statistically (2 sacks this season), should not be able to get to Alexander mainly because this is an offense that splits 4 WR out and is designed to make quick decisions before a rush can get to Alexander. LA Tech should have it's hands full after allowing 287 yards through air per game in 2008. Granted they have only given up 156/game this year, but that is definitely a mirage as LA Tech has faced two teams that only run in Nichols State, and Navy followed by Auburn who is a run first team as well.
So how else can LA Tech limit the passing game from Hawaii? Well they can definitely run the ball and occupy the time of possession. However, RB Daniel Porter has not been effective only averaging 44.7 yards rushing a game. He will likely have a little more success here against Hawaii than he did against Navy and Auburn, but Hawaii has a solid front 7 that does not allow big running plays and on the season is allowing 126.7 rushing yards per game. Hawaii should be able to do both running and passing on LA Tech and I do not think La Tech can keep up with Hawaii's offense in the end. If Hawaii can keep the ball away from LA Tech's Phil Livas on special teams, who is ranked 7th in punt returns last season and returned one for 85 yards against Navy, then they should win this game outright!
