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NCAA-F | Sep 30 '09 (8:00p)
Hawaii vs Louisiana Tech Louisiana Tech
-4-110 at bodog
4* Major WAC Game of the Month (ESPN 2) on Louisiana Tech -4
I'll back the Bulldogs at home tonight against a Hawaii defense that is way down this season. The Warriors return only 2 starters from last year's defensive unit and to make matters worse, three defensive starters are likely to miss tonight's game. 2 of those starters are defensive lineman and that should open up the door for Daniel Porter and the Tech running game even more. Ruston is always a tough place for opponents to play because of the long cross-country trip. That trip is even longer for Hawaii and it has struggled in Ruston in recent years. The last time the Warriors visited in 2007 they were lucky to come out alive, winning by just 1 point in OT as a 28-point favorite when they had a stacked team. In 2005, they came to Ruston and got pounded 46-14 when Louisiana Tech was a 3.5-point favorite. The Warriors were dominated on the ground in that game, allowing 327 yards rushing and they managed only 11 rushing yards themselves. I expect a similar situation tonight. The Home team is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings. The Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Also, Hawaii is 4-13 ATS in road games after a bye week since 1992, losing in these spots by an average score of 19.2 to 34.1. Lay the number.
College Football Premium Picks
NCAA-F | Sep 30 '09 (8:00p)
Hawaii vs Louisiana Tech Louisiana Tech
-4-110 at bodog
4* Major WAC Game of the Month (ESPN 2) on Louisiana Tech -4
I'll back the Bulldogs at home tonight against a Hawaii defense that is way down this season. The Warriors return only 2 starters from last year's defensive unit and to make matters worse, three defensive starters are likely to miss tonight's game. 2 of those starters are defensive lineman and that should open up the door for Daniel Porter and the Tech running game even more. Ruston is always a tough place for opponents to play because of the long cross-country trip. That trip is even longer for Hawaii and it has struggled in Ruston in recent years. The last time the Warriors visited in 2007 they were lucky to come out alive, winning by just 1 point in OT as a 28-point favorite when they had a stacked team. In 2005, they came to Ruston and got pounded 46-14 when Louisiana Tech was a 3.5-point favorite. The Warriors were dominated on the ground in that game, allowing 327 yards rushing and they managed only 11 rushing yards themselves. I expect a similar situation tonight. The Home team is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings. The Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Also, Hawaii is 4-13 ATS in road games after a bye week since 1992, losing in these spots by an average score of 19.2 to 34.1. Lay the number.
Black Widow
4* on L.A. Dodgers -119(5dimes)
(List Garland)
The Dodgers are going to get back on track tonight against the Padres after losing 4 of their last 5 games. We are getting a great price on L.A. Wednesday, and we'll take advantage. Jon Garland is 2-1 with a 0.90 ERA and 1.150 WHIP in his last 3 outings. This guy has been the Ace of the Dodgers' staff in the month of September, and he'll cap off this month with another dominant performance. Clayton Richard faced the Dodgers once this season, giving up 4 earned runs before getting knocked out of the game after a mere 4.3 innings of work. The Dodgers are 13-3 (+10.9 Units) against the money line with double revenge - 2 straight losses against opponent this season. The Dodgers are 27-9 (+15.3 Units) against the money line off a loss to a division rival as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. Take L.A. on the Money Line.
4* on L.A. Dodgers -119(5dimes)
(List Garland)
The Dodgers are going to get back on track tonight against the Padres after losing 4 of their last 5 games. We are getting a great price on L.A. Wednesday, and we'll take advantage. Jon Garland is 2-1 with a 0.90 ERA and 1.150 WHIP in his last 3 outings. This guy has been the Ace of the Dodgers' staff in the month of September, and he'll cap off this month with another dominant performance. Clayton Richard faced the Dodgers once this season, giving up 4 earned runs before getting knocked out of the game after a mere 4.3 innings of work. The Dodgers are 13-3 (+10.9 Units) against the money line with double revenge - 2 straight losses against opponent this season. The Dodgers are 27-9 (+15.3 Units) against the money line off a loss to a division rival as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. Take L.A. on the Money Line.
Black Widow
4* on St. Louis Cardinals +105(5dimes)
(List Smoltz)
The Cardinals have lost back-to-back games sinch clinching the N.L. Central, but now its time to get back on track and build some momentum heading into the postseason. St. Louis still has a lot to play for, with positioning in the National League at stake. John Smoltz has been a stopper throughout his career, going 18-4 (+13.5 Units) against the money line in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1997. The Cardinals are 78-21 (+38.6 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season since 1997. Bronson Arroyo is 0-8 (-8.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) this season. Take the Cardinals on the Money Line.
4* on St. Louis Cardinals +105(5dimes)
(List Smoltz)
The Cardinals have lost back-to-back games sinch clinching the N.L. Central, but now its time to get back on track and build some momentum heading into the postseason. St. Louis still has a lot to play for, with positioning in the National League at stake. John Smoltz has been a stopper throughout his career, going 18-4 (+13.5 Units) against the money line in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1997. The Cardinals are 78-21 (+38.6 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season since 1997. Bronson Arroyo is 0-8 (-8.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) this season. Take the Cardinals on the Money Line.
Black Widow
4* on Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 -102(5dimes)
(List Martinez and Moehler)
The Phillies can clinch the N.L. East tonight with a win, and they aren't about to squander this opportunity. Pedro Martinez signed with the Phillies to pitch in big games like this, and he will not disappoint tonight. Martinez is 2-0 with a 0.90 ERA and 0.850 WHIP in 4 home starts this year. Brian Moehler is 0-1 with a 6.28 ERA and 1.814 WHIP in his last 3 starts for Houston. The Astros are 29-47 on the road this season, scoring a mere 3.9 runs per contest. Houston is 0-8 (-10.0 Units) against the money line after 2 straight games where they stranded 10 or more runners on base over the last 3 seasons, losing by 4.9 runs per game in this spot. Take the Phillies on the -1.5 Run Line as they clinch the N.L. East in blowout fashion.
4* on Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 -102(5dimes)
(List Martinez and Moehler)
The Phillies can clinch the N.L. East tonight with a win, and they aren't about to squander this opportunity. Pedro Martinez signed with the Phillies to pitch in big games like this, and he will not disappoint tonight. Martinez is 2-0 with a 0.90 ERA and 0.850 WHIP in 4 home starts this year. Brian Moehler is 0-1 with a 6.28 ERA and 1.814 WHIP in his last 3 starts for Houston. The Astros are 29-47 on the road this season, scoring a mere 3.9 runs per contest. Houston is 0-8 (-10.0 Units) against the money line after 2 straight games where they stranded 10 or more runners on base over the last 3 seasons, losing by 4.9 runs per game in this spot. Take the Phillies on the -1.5 Run Line as they clinch the N.L. East in blowout fashion.
FadeStewTheSquare
Just a heads up on this service, its fading the squarest moron ever to place a sports bet. The guy blows his bankroll every 2 weeks and is quite possibly the biggest idiot in the history of sports handicapping. He buys hooks on every play and doesnt have any fundemental grasp of how to wager properly. Fading him has made me a ton of money. Here are the opposite of his plays for the weekend:
Teaser LA Tech to under
In the NFL Washington -7 and Houston -9.5
Fading him is 11-3 YTD
Just a heads up on this service, its fading the squarest moron ever to place a sports bet. The guy blows his bankroll every 2 weeks and is quite possibly the biggest idiot in the history of sports handicapping. He buys hooks on every play and doesnt have any fundemental grasp of how to wager properly. Fading him has made me a ton of money. Here are the opposite of his plays for the weekend:
Teaser LA Tech to under
In the NFL Washington -7 and Houston -9.5
Fading him is 11-3 YTD
Dr Bob
Hawaii is averaging a healthy 32 points per game, but the Warriors are a much better offensive team than that figure indicates, as they've averaged 517 total yards per game at an incredible 8.4 yards per play against teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average offensive team. Hawaii has had trouble scoring in the red zone (just 3.4 points per opportunity inside the opponent's 20 yard line), but a lot of that is just random variance and I expect Hawaii to be better in that category going forward. Quarterback Greg Alexander, averaging an incredible 9.8 yards per pass play, and the Hawaii offense should have no trouble moving the ball against a bad Louisiana Tech pass defense that has allowed 7.7 yards per pass play to 3 teams that would combine to average only 5.7 yppp against an average defensive team. Hawaii's defense hasn't been too much worse than average (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 4.9 yppl) and the Bulldogs' attack has been limited to just 5.5 yppl by teams that would combine to allow 6.0 yppl to an average team. In two games against Division 1A teams the Bulldogs have averaged just 3.7 yppl (against Auburn and Navy), so they're struggling offensively. Unfortunately, Hawaii applies to a very negative 66-156-2 ATS situation and a 109-198-6 ATS situation that combine to go 1-12 ATS when both apply to the same team. Still, it's clear to me that Hawaii is the much better team and should be favored in this game. I'll consider Hawaii a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more based on the line value, but the situational analysis will keep me from making the Warriors a Best Bet.
Hawaii is averaging a healthy 32 points per game, but the Warriors are a much better offensive team than that figure indicates, as they've averaged 517 total yards per game at an incredible 8.4 yards per play against teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average offensive team. Hawaii has had trouble scoring in the red zone (just 3.4 points per opportunity inside the opponent's 20 yard line), but a lot of that is just random variance and I expect Hawaii to be better in that category going forward. Quarterback Greg Alexander, averaging an incredible 9.8 yards per pass play, and the Hawaii offense should have no trouble moving the ball against a bad Louisiana Tech pass defense that has allowed 7.7 yards per pass play to 3 teams that would combine to average only 5.7 yppp against an average defensive team. Hawaii's defense hasn't been too much worse than average (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 4.9 yppl) and the Bulldogs' attack has been limited to just 5.5 yppl by teams that would combine to allow 6.0 yppl to an average team. In two games against Division 1A teams the Bulldogs have averaged just 3.7 yppl (against Auburn and Navy), so they're struggling offensively. Unfortunately, Hawaii applies to a very negative 66-156-2 ATS situation and a 109-198-6 ATS situation that combine to go 1-12 ATS when both apply to the same team. Still, it's clear to me that Hawaii is the much better team and should be favored in this game. I'll consider Hawaii a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more based on the line value, but the situational analysis will keep me from making the Warriors a Best Bet.
Tony Weston
Tony Weston WEDNESDAY'S PLAYS 15 Dime Hawaii-Louisiana Tech Over
5 Dime Hawaii
Hawaii-Louisiana Tech Total
OVER - The last few seasons that these two have played, the Over has been the smart play. And with the Total for tonight set at about 55 points, it’s the smart play again.
Consider that the Over is 4-2 the last six meetings between these teams and has come in 3 of the last 4 between them.
In that stretch, these two have totaled, on average, 67.8 points per game. Also, in their last three games at Louisiana Tech, these two have totaled, on average, 78 points per game.
Also consider that Hawaii has seen the Over come in each of its last two games and is on a 6-1 Over run, while Louisiana Tech has seen the Over come in 2 of its last 3 games and has seen it come in 5 of its last 7 games overall.
The Over will come in again as these two cruise well past the Total.
Hawaii at Louisiana Tech
HAWAII - Though Hawaii comes into this game after a heartbreaking loss on the road at UNLV, where the Rainbow Warriors lost 34-33 as a 7-point underdog, they still have cashed in each of their two lined games this season.
Tonight, on the road at Louisiana Tech, Hawaii will cash in once again.
The Warriors come into this game as quite the moneymaker. Hawaii has cashed in 6 of its last 7 conference games and is 5-1 ATS its last 6 games on the road. Also, when catching points the Warriors have cashed in 5 of their last 6 games and are 9-3 their last 12 games in September.
Consider, too, the Warriors have covered in 9 of their last 12 games overall and now get a shot at a Louisiana Tech team that’s just 4-11 ATS its last 15 games in September and has covered in just 8 of its last 37 games coming off a SU win.
Also keep in mind that the Bulldogs are just 1-4 ATS their last 5 games when installed as a favorite of between 3 1/2 and 10 points.
Most importantly, this decade the Warriors have been the moneymaker in this series. In their 7 meetings Hawaii has cashed in 5 times, including last year’s cover where the Warriors won 24-14 as a 7 1/2 point favorite.
Tonight, the Warriors will be in another position to pull off the SU win and will definitely cover.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED--------GL GUYS
Tony Weston WEDNESDAY'S PLAYS 15 Dime Hawaii-Louisiana Tech Over
5 Dime Hawaii
Hawaii-Louisiana Tech Total
OVER - The last few seasons that these two have played, the Over has been the smart play. And with the Total for tonight set at about 55 points, it’s the smart play again.
Consider that the Over is 4-2 the last six meetings between these teams and has come in 3 of the last 4 between them.
In that stretch, these two have totaled, on average, 67.8 points per game. Also, in their last three games at Louisiana Tech, these two have totaled, on average, 78 points per game.
Also consider that Hawaii has seen the Over come in each of its last two games and is on a 6-1 Over run, while Louisiana Tech has seen the Over come in 2 of its last 3 games and has seen it come in 5 of its last 7 games overall.
The Over will come in again as these two cruise well past the Total.
Hawaii at Louisiana Tech
HAWAII - Though Hawaii comes into this game after a heartbreaking loss on the road at UNLV, where the Rainbow Warriors lost 34-33 as a 7-point underdog, they still have cashed in each of their two lined games this season.
Tonight, on the road at Louisiana Tech, Hawaii will cash in once again.
The Warriors come into this game as quite the moneymaker. Hawaii has cashed in 6 of its last 7 conference games and is 5-1 ATS its last 6 games on the road. Also, when catching points the Warriors have cashed in 5 of their last 6 games and are 9-3 their last 12 games in September.
Consider, too, the Warriors have covered in 9 of their last 12 games overall and now get a shot at a Louisiana Tech team that’s just 4-11 ATS its last 15 games in September and has covered in just 8 of its last 37 games coming off a SU win.
Also keep in mind that the Bulldogs are just 1-4 ATS their last 5 games when installed as a favorite of between 3 1/2 and 10 points.
Most importantly, this decade the Warriors have been the moneymaker in this series. In their 7 meetings Hawaii has cashed in 5 times, including last year’s cover where the Warriors won 24-14 as a 7 1/2 point favorite.
Tonight, the Warriors will be in another position to pull off the SU win and will definitely cover.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED--------GL GUYS
Craig Davis
Wednesday's Lineup
15 Dime --- Hawaii-Louisiana Tech OVER
10 Dime --- BREWERS (With Suppan and Hammel as listed pitchers)
HAWAII/LA. TECH OVER --- This is the easiest play on the board. Forget the side, the total should hit by early in the fourth quarter and you can rest easy the rest of the game. To be honest, I think Hawaii could easily win this game SU, but I absolutely don't trust their defense. When I was handicapping this game, I found some early indications as to why the Rainbows would be the right play, but the more I looked at it, I just couldn't offer them as a pick because I didn't believe in their defense. Oh sure, they can score with just about anyone in the country as long as the matchup is right. Well guess what... tonight, the matchup is right. This game is going to be a track meet with the team that holds the ball last likely winning.
Let's look at the Rainbows first. No, I'm not going to look at the offenses... I'm going to look at the LACK of defense played by teams. First off, Hawaii has numerous injury issues on the defensive side of the ball, including LB Aaron Brown. The 'Bows have allowed almost 400 yards per game through three, including 250+ yards through the air and over 125 on the ground. And it's not just the injuries that have plagued this defense... they just aren't that good. You can't rely on them to stop any semblance of an offense and LA. Tech will definitely have the crowd behind them.
But don't think the Bulldogs get off that easy. Through three games for Louisiana Tech, they've allowed over 250 yards on the ground per game, and that plays right into the hands of the Hawaii offense. The Rainbows rush for better than 4 yards per carry and over the course of the game, that's going to add up. Both teams have potent offenses and neither defense can stop anyone... the recipe for an OVER is clearly written on the wall. Play the OVER.
MILWAUKEE BREWERS (list Suppan) over COLORADO (list Hammel) --- Going right back to the Brewers tonight at a great price. You can't tell me you're not concerned about the way the Rockies are playing right now. They're in the fight of their lives in the Wild Card and I watched a team blow a 5-2 lead in the 9th inning and needed some help from the umps (Ianetta clearly went around on what would have been strike three) to get a 7-5 win as he would homer on the very next pitch. No, I'm not here to try and tell you the Brewers are a better team that Colorado or that they will destroy the Rockies tonight, but at this price it's just way too good to pass up. Remember, it was Jason Kendall who nailed the three-run homer in the 9th to send this game to extras. Hart, Fielder and Braun were quiet... and that's not going to continue.
Milwaukee might not have much pitching anymore, but they can hit the crap out of the ball and you know they're chomping at the bit to play spoiler. The Rockies have all the pressure of the world on their shoulders right now while Milwaukee is playing loose, preparing for next year. They'll send veteran Jeff Suppan to the hill who has faced the Rockies 9 times in his career, winning six times and losing just once. Yeah, that's right, Suppan is 6-1 in his career vs. the Rockies with a 3.36 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP. Jason Hammel counters for Colorado, and although he's beaten the Brewers in his only start against them, his season ERA and overall lack of closing the deal doesn't give me a lot of confidence. Play the Brewers over the Rockies as your bonus play of the day.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED---------GL GUYS
Wednesday's Lineup
15 Dime --- Hawaii-Louisiana Tech OVER
10 Dime --- BREWERS (With Suppan and Hammel as listed pitchers)
HAWAII/LA. TECH OVER --- This is the easiest play on the board. Forget the side, the total should hit by early in the fourth quarter and you can rest easy the rest of the game. To be honest, I think Hawaii could easily win this game SU, but I absolutely don't trust their defense. When I was handicapping this game, I found some early indications as to why the Rainbows would be the right play, but the more I looked at it, I just couldn't offer them as a pick because I didn't believe in their defense. Oh sure, they can score with just about anyone in the country as long as the matchup is right. Well guess what... tonight, the matchup is right. This game is going to be a track meet with the team that holds the ball last likely winning.
Let's look at the Rainbows first. No, I'm not going to look at the offenses... I'm going to look at the LACK of defense played by teams. First off, Hawaii has numerous injury issues on the defensive side of the ball, including LB Aaron Brown. The 'Bows have allowed almost 400 yards per game through three, including 250+ yards through the air and over 125 on the ground. And it's not just the injuries that have plagued this defense... they just aren't that good. You can't rely on them to stop any semblance of an offense and LA. Tech will definitely have the crowd behind them.
But don't think the Bulldogs get off that easy. Through three games for Louisiana Tech, they've allowed over 250 yards on the ground per game, and that plays right into the hands of the Hawaii offense. The Rainbows rush for better than 4 yards per carry and over the course of the game, that's going to add up. Both teams have potent offenses and neither defense can stop anyone... the recipe for an OVER is clearly written on the wall. Play the OVER.
MILWAUKEE BREWERS (list Suppan) over COLORADO (list Hammel) --- Going right back to the Brewers tonight at a great price. You can't tell me you're not concerned about the way the Rockies are playing right now. They're in the fight of their lives in the Wild Card and I watched a team blow a 5-2 lead in the 9th inning and needed some help from the umps (Ianetta clearly went around on what would have been strike three) to get a 7-5 win as he would homer on the very next pitch. No, I'm not here to try and tell you the Brewers are a better team that Colorado or that they will destroy the Rockies tonight, but at this price it's just way too good to pass up. Remember, it was Jason Kendall who nailed the three-run homer in the 9th to send this game to extras. Hart, Fielder and Braun were quiet... and that's not going to continue.
Milwaukee might not have much pitching anymore, but they can hit the crap out of the ball and you know they're chomping at the bit to play spoiler. The Rockies have all the pressure of the world on their shoulders right now while Milwaukee is playing loose, preparing for next year. They'll send veteran Jeff Suppan to the hill who has faced the Rockies 9 times in his career, winning six times and losing just once. Yeah, that's right, Suppan is 6-1 in his career vs. the Rockies with a 3.36 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP. Jason Hammel counters for Colorado, and although he's beaten the Brewers in his only start against them, his season ERA and overall lack of closing the deal doesn't give me a lot of confidence. Play the Brewers over the Rockies as your bonus play of the day.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED---------GL GUYS
From a friend
Stu's Wednesday 50-Dime CFB Winning Total
Hawaii @ Louisiana Tech 8:00 PM EDT
Play On: Over 55.5 (50-Dime)
Play on the game to go over the total as a 50-Dime selection.
Stu's 50-Dime MLB Winner Cards/Reds
St. Louis (Smoltz) @ Cincinnati (Arroyo) 7:10 PM EDT
Play On: Cincinnati -110 (50-Dime)
Play on the Cincinnati Reds as a 50-Dime selection.
Stu's Wednesday 50-Dime CFB Winning Total
Hawaii @ Louisiana Tech 8:00 PM EDT
Play On: Over 55.5 (50-Dime)
Play on the game to go over the total as a 50-Dime selection.
Stu's 50-Dime MLB Winner Cards/Reds
St. Louis (Smoltz) @ Cincinnati (Arroyo) 7:10 PM EDT
Play On: Cincinnati -110 (50-Dime)
Play on the Cincinnati Reds as a 50-Dime selection.
Wunderdog MLB 09/30
Game: New York Mets at Washington (4:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Washington -130 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.3)
Game: New York Mets at Washington (4:40 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Washington -1.5 runs +165 (runline) (risk 3 to win 5)
Game: Toronto at Boston (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Boston +145 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 4.4)
Game: Arizona at San Francisco (10:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on San Francisco -165 (moneyline) (risk 5 to win 3)
Game: Arizona at San Francisco (10:20 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on San Francisco -1.5 runs +130 (runline) (risk 3 to win 3.9)
Game: New York Mets at Washington (4:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Washington -130 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.3)
Game: New York Mets at Washington (4:40 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Washington -1.5 runs +165 (runline) (risk 3 to win 5)
Game: Toronto at Boston (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Boston +145 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 4.4)
Game: Arizona at San Francisco (10:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on San Francisco -165 (moneyline) (risk 5 to win 3)
Game: Arizona at San Francisco (10:20 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on San Francisco -1.5 runs +130 (runline) (risk 3 to win 3.9)
