Dave Malinsky
Top of the Ticket - Night
3* #925 TORONTO over BOSTON
The oddsmakers were forced to swing at a knuckleball in this one, perhaps appropriate on a night in which Tim Wakefield takes the mound, and they whiffed badly. That gives us the chance to back one of the best pitchers in the game, and one of the hottest teams in the Majors down the stretch, at a more than fair price against an opponent that will likely field a make-shift lineup. That gets us in the game. Roy Halladay has worked through trade rumors and some physical issues to have another Roy Hallday season. His 16-10/2.90 only tells part of the story ? of the 104 pitchers that have worked at least 120 innings he rates #3 in difficulty of batters faced, which makes those numbers even more impressive. His last nine starts have all come against teams with winning records, yet he has held up brilliantly, including a 1.80 ERA over five September starts in which he has worked three complete games. His pride will show here in a chance to close the season in style, even if it will be a nondescript lineup that he will be facing, and we can count on him to get plenty of support ? in a current 8-1 run the Blue Jays have only lost to Felix Hernandez, scoring 60 runs in the process. That Toronto offensive form is unlikely to be stopped by Tim Wakefield. Wakefield has only worked three times since the All Star break, and only once in that last three weeks, that being a laborious five innings at Kansas City in which he allowed five runs (four earned), and needed 102 pitches to merely get that far. He did not have any control of his knuckler that night, with seven walks vs. only two strikeouts, and that was vs. a young lineup that has rarely seen his stuff. Tonight Toronto can counter with seven starters that have at least 12 career at-bats against him, and with 19 runs on 25 hits already in the series, despite only coming to the plate in 16 innings, there is plenty of momentum to work with. We expect Terry Francona to treat this like an exhibition, especially since his Red Sox have a four-game series vs. Cleveland before going to the playoffs. That makes this at least a 2:1 game in our books, but because of the uniforms involved the oddsmakers can not take it to that level.
