Norm Hitzges
May 31, 2011
183-186 -29.75
·******** Double Play—San Diego +110 vs Atlanta
·******** Double Play—Seattle -135 vs Baltimore
·******** Oakland -125 vs New York
·******** St. Louis -160 vs San Francisco
·******** Houston +160 vs Cubs
·******** Florida/Arizona Under 8
·******** Arizona -125 vs Florida
·******** Minnesota +165 vs Detroit
May 31, 2011
183-186 -29.75
·******** Double Play—San Diego +110 vs Atlanta
·******** Double Play—Seattle -135 vs Baltimore
·******** Oakland -125 vs New York
·******** St. Louis -160 vs San Francisco
·******** Houston +160 vs Cubs
·******** Florida/Arizona Under 8
·******** Arizona -125 vs Florida
·******** Minnesota +165 vs Detroit
SPORTS WAGERS
Houston +158 over CHICAGO
Jordan Lyles reached the Majors quickly after being selected in the supplemental first round of the '08 draft. He possesses a clean, smooth arm and repeats his delivery consistently, giving him plus command and outstanding control of a four-pitch arsenal. He pitches off his 88-94 mph fastball that he keeps low in the strike zone. His cutter can be tough to square up and his slider and changeup are above average offerings. While he doesn't project to a dominant strikeout artist, Lyles can register Ks with his secondary pitches. He prefers to hit his spots and force hitters to make contact early in the count. In 57 innings at Oklahoma City of the Triple-A Pacific Coast League, Lyles struck out 41 and walked 16 and posted an ERA of 3.20. He got off to a bit of a shaky start but he’s not allowed a single run in three of his last seven starts and he’s allowed just 3 ER’s in his last three starts. Carlos Zambrano is 5-2 but his ERA is 4.59 and his 40 BPV** (for explanation of BPV see bottom of these write-ups) confirms he’s not fooling many. He’s also dealing with a nagging neck injury and they weren’t even sure if he was going to go today. If Zambrano is off even slightly he’ll get whacked because he’s just not that good at 100%. Reasons not to buy into Carlos Zambrano: a 38%/43% GB/FB profile and an xERA of 4.71. It's hard to believe that Zambrano is just 29 years old, but we need look no further than the IP column to know that he is an old 29 and is in no way worthy of this tag. Play: Houston +158 (Risking 2 units).
San Diego +111 over ATLANTA
The Padres are last in the NL West, but are the only team in their division with a winning road record. They came in here yesterday and took the opener in a very unfavorable pitching match-up and today they get a match-up that is very favorable. Mike Minor will make his third start of the year and in his first two starts the opposition hit .341 off him. In his career, the opposition has hit .319 off Minor. He has a WHIP of 2.00 and that’s because his control is a serious issue, as he’s walked six in 10 innings while striking out seven. Minor comes into this game with a career ERA of 5.86 and this year his ERA is 5.40 so nothing has really changed with him. The Padres should get some folks on base here and that’s going to cause the Braves some trouble. San Diego is the league’s number one base stealing threat, having stolen 51 bases as a team this year and Brian McCann has allowed 35 stolen bases this year, tied for most in the National League. Atlanta is the only National League squad with lower than a 50% success rate in stolen bases (9-for-23, or 39%). Matt Latos is 2-6 with an ERA of 4.08. He was 0-5 at one point and he was laboring but he’s knocked almost two full runs off his ERA and he’s getting stronger. In 53 frames he’s walked just 18 while striking out 50. His last start he dazzled the Cardinals by throwing eight full, walking none, allowing one run and striking out seven. Latos has a BAA of .241 and will face a struggling Braves offense. Play: San Diego +111 (Risking 2 units).
TORONTO –1½ +126 over Cleveland
The Indians have come back down to earth in a big way with five losses in six games and over that span they’ve allowed an alarming 44 runs. They’ve also struck out an AL high 51 times over that span and that bodes well for us here, as they’ll face Brandon Morrow, a guy with one of the highest strikeout rates in the majors. Morrow has whiffed 48 batters in 39 frames and his xERA is 3.25, which is 1.13-runs lower than his actual ERA of 4.38. He has not allowed a single jack in his last six starts and his last start may have been his best of the year. The Jays offense has scored 33 times in the past three games and has scored nine or more in all three. These Jays hitters can’t get to the park early enough. They’ll face Mitch Talbot and they’ll also see a beaten up Indians pen at some point. Talbot pitched decently in first half last season then he went kaboom in 2H. Talbot started the year on the DL and joined the Indians rotation two starts ago. In his last start he was knocked out in the third inning after allowing 12 hits and eight runs to the Red Sox. One really has to question his confidence after that start and after coming off the DL after a rough 2H a season ago. It sure can’t ease his mind that the Tribe are laboring at the plate either. The Indians have scored 12 runs over their last six games and the bleeding both at the plate and on the hill is unlikely to stop here. Play: Toronto –1½ +126 (Risking 2 units).
Dallas +158 over MIAMI (Series)
The Heat are winning with Mike Bibby as their starting point guard, though he's not playing like most point guards. Of the 28 PGs who have played in the postseason, Bibby ranks last among them in PER at a shockingly low 3.01. His shooting is horrendous and his defense isn’t much better. Had the Bulls had more options than D-Rose, we might be talking about the Bulls here. Chicago had Miami on the ropes in at least two games in that series but could not make a shot in the games final four minutes. Contrary to what most people think, a point guard is needed more for defensive purposes than he is as a triggerman to run the offense. LeBron and D-Wade can facilitate and act as de facto point guards when the Heat have the ball, but to ask Wade or LeBron to defend smaller players all game would be a mistake for various reasons (fatigue, foul issues, etc.). A strong case is being made that they are winning despite having the worst roster in the game from their fifth-best player on down. Udonis Haslem missed 69 games, but has returned strong enough to be their fourth-best player in the last two games (after all, it took Haslem only two games to return as the team's fourth-best player after a 69-game absence). If Haslem gets reinjured and can’t handle the minutes, the Heat are in a big hole. The longer this series goes, the better chance the Mav’s have because their bench is vastly superior and so is their PG play. Miami’s defense is tremendous and the only concern we have with the Mav’s is their love at taking the three-pointer. They're a perimeter team while the Heat work off their defense. If Dallas is hitting fine, but if they’re not, they lead to too many easy baskets. LeBron and D-Wade are tremendous players that can beat anyone on their own. They’re going to have to be near perfect to beat the Mav’s and even then it might be difficult. Dirk is in a zone of his own. Dallas plays great defense too and they have far more options than the Heat. The Bulls could not take advantage of the weakness the Heat have. The Mavericks will. Play: Dallas +158 to win series (Risking 2 units).
Houston +158 over CHICAGO
Jordan Lyles reached the Majors quickly after being selected in the supplemental first round of the '08 draft. He possesses a clean, smooth arm and repeats his delivery consistently, giving him plus command and outstanding control of a four-pitch arsenal. He pitches off his 88-94 mph fastball that he keeps low in the strike zone. His cutter can be tough to square up and his slider and changeup are above average offerings. While he doesn't project to a dominant strikeout artist, Lyles can register Ks with his secondary pitches. He prefers to hit his spots and force hitters to make contact early in the count. In 57 innings at Oklahoma City of the Triple-A Pacific Coast League, Lyles struck out 41 and walked 16 and posted an ERA of 3.20. He got off to a bit of a shaky start but he’s not allowed a single run in three of his last seven starts and he’s allowed just 3 ER’s in his last three starts. Carlos Zambrano is 5-2 but his ERA is 4.59 and his 40 BPV** (for explanation of BPV see bottom of these write-ups) confirms he’s not fooling many. He’s also dealing with a nagging neck injury and they weren’t even sure if he was going to go today. If Zambrano is off even slightly he’ll get whacked because he’s just not that good at 100%. Reasons not to buy into Carlos Zambrano: a 38%/43% GB/FB profile and an xERA of 4.71. It's hard to believe that Zambrano is just 29 years old, but we need look no further than the IP column to know that he is an old 29 and is in no way worthy of this tag. Play: Houston +158 (Risking 2 units).
San Diego +111 over ATLANTA
The Padres are last in the NL West, but are the only team in their division with a winning road record. They came in here yesterday and took the opener in a very unfavorable pitching match-up and today they get a match-up that is very favorable. Mike Minor will make his third start of the year and in his first two starts the opposition hit .341 off him. In his career, the opposition has hit .319 off Minor. He has a WHIP of 2.00 and that’s because his control is a serious issue, as he’s walked six in 10 innings while striking out seven. Minor comes into this game with a career ERA of 5.86 and this year his ERA is 5.40 so nothing has really changed with him. The Padres should get some folks on base here and that’s going to cause the Braves some trouble. San Diego is the league’s number one base stealing threat, having stolen 51 bases as a team this year and Brian McCann has allowed 35 stolen bases this year, tied for most in the National League. Atlanta is the only National League squad with lower than a 50% success rate in stolen bases (9-for-23, or 39%). Matt Latos is 2-6 with an ERA of 4.08. He was 0-5 at one point and he was laboring but he’s knocked almost two full runs off his ERA and he’s getting stronger. In 53 frames he’s walked just 18 while striking out 50. His last start he dazzled the Cardinals by throwing eight full, walking none, allowing one run and striking out seven. Latos has a BAA of .241 and will face a struggling Braves offense. Play: San Diego +111 (Risking 2 units).
TORONTO –1½ +126 over Cleveland
The Indians have come back down to earth in a big way with five losses in six games and over that span they’ve allowed an alarming 44 runs. They’ve also struck out an AL high 51 times over that span and that bodes well for us here, as they’ll face Brandon Morrow, a guy with one of the highest strikeout rates in the majors. Morrow has whiffed 48 batters in 39 frames and his xERA is 3.25, which is 1.13-runs lower than his actual ERA of 4.38. He has not allowed a single jack in his last six starts and his last start may have been his best of the year. The Jays offense has scored 33 times in the past three games and has scored nine or more in all three. These Jays hitters can’t get to the park early enough. They’ll face Mitch Talbot and they’ll also see a beaten up Indians pen at some point. Talbot pitched decently in first half last season then he went kaboom in 2H. Talbot started the year on the DL and joined the Indians rotation two starts ago. In his last start he was knocked out in the third inning after allowing 12 hits and eight runs to the Red Sox. One really has to question his confidence after that start and after coming off the DL after a rough 2H a season ago. It sure can’t ease his mind that the Tribe are laboring at the plate either. The Indians have scored 12 runs over their last six games and the bleeding both at the plate and on the hill is unlikely to stop here. Play: Toronto –1½ +126 (Risking 2 units).
Dallas +158 over MIAMI (Series)
The Heat are winning with Mike Bibby as their starting point guard, though he's not playing like most point guards. Of the 28 PGs who have played in the postseason, Bibby ranks last among them in PER at a shockingly low 3.01. His shooting is horrendous and his defense isn’t much better. Had the Bulls had more options than D-Rose, we might be talking about the Bulls here. Chicago had Miami on the ropes in at least two games in that series but could not make a shot in the games final four minutes. Contrary to what most people think, a point guard is needed more for defensive purposes than he is as a triggerman to run the offense. LeBron and D-Wade can facilitate and act as de facto point guards when the Heat have the ball, but to ask Wade or LeBron to defend smaller players all game would be a mistake for various reasons (fatigue, foul issues, etc.). A strong case is being made that they are winning despite having the worst roster in the game from their fifth-best player on down. Udonis Haslem missed 69 games, but has returned strong enough to be their fourth-best player in the last two games (after all, it took Haslem only two games to return as the team's fourth-best player after a 69-game absence). If Haslem gets reinjured and can’t handle the minutes, the Heat are in a big hole. The longer this series goes, the better chance the Mav’s have because their bench is vastly superior and so is their PG play. Miami’s defense is tremendous and the only concern we have with the Mav’s is their love at taking the three-pointer. They're a perimeter team while the Heat work off their defense. If Dallas is hitting fine, but if they’re not, they lead to too many easy baskets. LeBron and D-Wade are tremendous players that can beat anyone on their own. They’re going to have to be near perfect to beat the Mav’s and even then it might be difficult. Dirk is in a zone of his own. Dallas plays great defense too and they have far more options than the Heat. The Bulls could not take advantage of the weakness the Heat have. The Mavericks will. Play: Dallas +158 to win series (Risking 2 units).
WunderDog Premium MLB
Game: Texas at Tampa Bay (6:40 PM Eastern)
Pick: Texas -130 (moneyline)
Game: Minnesota at Detroit (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Detroit -190 (moneyline)
Game: Philadelphia at Washington (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Philadelphia -1.5 runs -105 (runline)
Game: Chicago White Sox at Boston (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: Boston -175 (moneyline)
Game: Baltimore at Seattle (10:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: Seattle -135 (moneyline)
Game: Texas at Tampa Bay (6:40 PM Eastern)
Pick: Texas -130 (moneyline)
Game: Minnesota at Detroit (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Detroit -190 (moneyline)
Game: Philadelphia at Washington (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Philadelphia -1.5 runs -105 (runline)
Game: Chicago White Sox at Boston (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: Boston -175 (moneyline)
Game: Baltimore at Seattle (10:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: Seattle -135 (moneyline)
Ohio's SBP (Sports Betting Prodigy)
Miami Heat -4.5
The Finals Are Here And They Are Usually Very Easy To Predict If You Have Been Following NBA All Season... The Money Line Shows The Heat Are Huge Favorites .. Which Means The Number Should Be About 10 ... The Public Loves Dallas... But The Books Are Trying To Kill Teasers..And Some Teasers Have Dallas Plus 10...Which Looks Good On Paper.. But Dont Play The Mavericks Tonight Because It Is A Trap...For Those Novice Bettors Who Are Only Getting Down Because Its "The Finals"... Were Gonna Pound The Heat Tonight ... 91-77
Miami Heat -4.5
The Finals Are Here And They Are Usually Very Easy To Predict If You Have Been Following NBA All Season... The Money Line Shows The Heat Are Huge Favorites .. Which Means The Number Should Be About 10 ... The Public Loves Dallas... But The Books Are Trying To Kill Teasers..And Some Teasers Have Dallas Plus 10...Which Looks Good On Paper.. But Dont Play The Mavericks Tonight Because It Is A Trap...For Those Novice Bettors Who Are Only Getting Down Because Its "The Finals"... Were Gonna Pound The Heat Tonight ... 91-77
JLB'S PICKS (JLB4422 ON TWITTER)
(32-18-3 L51 MLB Picks Streak : 4-1 NBA Playoff Run)
10:10 PM TIP-PICKS #1:
FREE PICK:**MLB** APPETIZER (3Units)
*FREE PREVIEW* NY YANKEES -ML (+115)
9:10PM PICK #2: *NBA FINALS LINE MISTAKE*
**NBA** PLATINUM HAMMER! (10Units)
*MEMBERS PICK* DALLAS VS MIAMI (Waiting for email from my source will post when i get it)
10:10PM PICK #3:
**MLB** GOLD DIGGER! (5Units)
*MEMBERS PICK* COLORADO ROCKIES -ML (+107)
(32-18-3 L51 MLB Picks Streak : 4-1 NBA Playoff Run)
10:10 PM TIP-PICKS #1:
FREE PICK:**MLB** APPETIZER (3Units)
*FREE PREVIEW* NY YANKEES -ML (+115)
9:10PM PICK #2: *NBA FINALS LINE MISTAKE*
**NBA** PLATINUM HAMMER! (10Units)
*MEMBERS PICK* DALLAS VS MIAMI (Waiting for email from my source will post when i get it)
10:10PM PICK #3:
**MLB** GOLD DIGGER! (5Units)
*MEMBERS PICK* COLORADO ROCKIES -ML (+107)
THE DUKE SPORTS
Texas (-126) for 2 Units
Texas/Tampa Bay 6:40: The Rangers' run production looks like it's back in full swing; after all, they've scored 7 or more runs over the last 4 games. Tampa Bay's Alex Cobb, who is making only his second career start, will be sorely tested against the formidable Rangers' lineup. Cobb got lit up in his first start on May 1st against the Angels (4 ER in 4 1/3 IP) and was sent to the minors where he did extremely well however, he is catching the Rangers at the wrong time as they bring hot bats to TB. Rangers are 4-0 after scoring 5 runs or more previously. And C.J. Wilson, who starts for Texas tonight, is 2-0 lifetime vs the Rays with a 2.45 ERA. The current Rays' lineup is batting just .150 against him. TB is a mere 2-8 against lefty starters and 0-6 in game 2 of a series. Texas is 7-2 in game 2 of a series with Wilson on the mound and 5-1 on Tuesdays with him. We'll look for Texas to win their 5th straight at TB.
Texas (-126) for 2 Units
Texas/Tampa Bay 6:40: The Rangers' run production looks like it's back in full swing; after all, they've scored 7 or more runs over the last 4 games. Tampa Bay's Alex Cobb, who is making only his second career start, will be sorely tested against the formidable Rangers' lineup. Cobb got lit up in his first start on May 1st against the Angels (4 ER in 4 1/3 IP) and was sent to the minors where he did extremely well however, he is catching the Rangers at the wrong time as they bring hot bats to TB. Rangers are 4-0 after scoring 5 runs or more previously. And C.J. Wilson, who starts for Texas tonight, is 2-0 lifetime vs the Rays with a 2.45 ERA. The current Rays' lineup is batting just .150 against him. TB is a mere 2-8 against lefty starters and 0-6 in game 2 of a series. Texas is 7-2 in game 2 of a series with Wilson on the mound and 5-1 on Tuesdays with him. We'll look for Texas to win their 5th straight at TB.
