Dave Malinsky
Top of the Ticket – Side
Oklahoma City Thunder(-1.5) over SACRAMENTO KINGS
4* OKLAHOMA CITY over SACRAMENTO What do we read into Sacramento winning the first two games without Kevin Martin on the court? Nothing. What do we read Oklahoma City?s 3-3 start that would seemingly elicit yawns? Plenty. That means that we have excellent value to back what is not only the far better team, but also one that is physically and mentally tougher, which makes a big difference in terms of grinding out SU wins in such a setting. The Kings did what teams often do when a key player is sidelined ? they buckle down and play very hard for the first game or two, while also catching the opposition flat. This is not a lineup that forces an opponent to pay much attention in the film room. But it is after that first wave of adrenaline wears off, and when the other side now takes them seriously, that the crash happens. This is a young team lacking in experience and chemistry, and while they were given an invitation to be successful in a wide open game vs. mindless Golden State on Sunday night, that flow changes in a major way here. Oklahoma City is an under-rated item in this pointspread range. While bringing in top-level young talents like Kevin Durrant, Jeff Green and Russell Westbrook did create a level of visibility, the additions of Nenad Krstic, Thabo Sefolosha and Etan Thomas on the court, and Maurice Cheeks on the sidelines, were far off of the radar screens. But those additions have provided key pieces to a Thunder puzzle that now fits together in a concise way. Despite facing a challenging schedule through the first six games they are #5 defensively and #5 in rebounding on our best sets of ratings, with the Westbrook/Sefolosha back-court one of the better defensive combos in the league, and the Thomas/Nick Collison duo a tremendous defense and rebounding tandem off the bench (from Scott Brooks, on that latter duo - ?It?s huge. We have two energy, intangible players coming off the bench. They create offense by just playing hard, cutting hard, getting offensive rebounds and making the extra pass. And defensively, they?re tough.?) Sacramento has yet to be forced into a half-court game since losing Martin. The Kings led 85-68 going into the fourth quarter vs. Utah and coasted, and were never pushed in that playground game vs. Golden State. Now they will have to play some precision basketball for the first time with the current starting lineup, and that means breakdowns on both ends of the court. Tyreke Evans is talented but still raw, which means difficulties getting untracked vs. Sefolosha, and when that happens the entire offense bogs down. Meanwhile a defense that rates 27th on our best charts brings even more chemistry problems (note in winning those last two games the Warriors and Jazz were 68-126 on 2-point attempts). You do not win many games with such issues.