Craig Davis
Tuesday's Lineup
25 Dime --- THUNDER
10 Dime --- Nuggets-Bulls OVER
5 Dime --- BUFFALO
THUNDER --- To me, this one is pretty simple. Vegas still doesn't quite believe in this OKC Thunder basketball team, so we're going to get line value every time they play until the odds makers start realizing this team is a LOT better than they were last year... by leaps and bounds. HC Scott Brooks has preached defensive intensity to this team in the off-season, and that alone is the biggest difference you'll see from last year's version of the Thunder and this year's version. We knew last year OKC could score with just about anybody in the NBA, but they also had no business ever being a favorite because they couldn't stop anyone. Keep in mind, though, that Brooks didn't start the year as the head coach and was behind the 8-ball from the beginning. Brooks was hired when PJ Carlisemo got canned and really never had a chance to instill his defensive mind-set into this team.
Things have changed in OKC, though, and now that he's had a full off-season to work with them, you can see they are believing in his style of coaching. Don't believe me? Just look at the numbers. Last season the Thunder allowed well over 100 PPG for the season. This year, only two opponents have surpassed the 100-point plateau against them... and one of them was the Lakers and they needed overtime to get there. In fact, the Thunder opened the season vs. the Kings a few weeks ago and held them to 89 points for the game... and this is a Kings team that has scored over 100 points in each of their last four games.
Also keep in mind, Sacramento will be without their leading scorer, G Kevin Margin who is sidelined with a wrist injury. Martin was a huge factor in that game, scoring 27 points and dishing out 4 assists and I'm not sure they have anyone else on their bench that's capable of posting those type of numbers vs. this defensive-minded OKC Thunder bunch. We're also getting really good line value tonight because the game is on the road, otherwise we'd be asked to lay 7 or more points again... obviously I feel more comfortable laying one or two tonight. The road team is 13-4 ATS in the last 17 meetings between these two, and with them having already played once this season, I gotta take my chances with OKC to "steal" a road win from an overmatched Sacramento team tonight.
DENVER/CHICAGO OVER --- You want points? Watch tonight's Denver/Chicago matchup in the windy city. Denver started the season as one of the hottest teams in the NBA but have dropped two straight road games and will be without shot-blocker Kenyon Martin tonight.Denver's offense has kinda been "on hold" during these last two losses, but you can bet George Karl is going to open the flood gates for his Nuggets tonight as they realize the importance of this road win tonight. Denver comes in averaging 109 PPG on the season, but have been limited to just 100 and 88 in their last two road games. I can promise you this.... when you hold this offense to less than 100 points, they take it personally. They don't believe any team in the NBA should be able to keep their offense quiet, and with a few days rest, you can bet they're going to come out with guns-a-blazin' tonight. Yes, I realize Chicago is only scoring about 90 PPG thus far, but they also haven't faced a defense that's giving up 104 PPG on average either. Chicago has more than enough offensive talent to score points with anyone (Deng, Rose, Noah, Salmons), and defense simply won't be an option tonight. If you like offense, you need to plop down in front of your flat-screen tonight and buckle up for what should be a 110-106 type game. The last seven meetings between these two have gone OVER the total... and those totals were higher than tonight's number of 204. I wouldn't be surprised if this score isn't over the total by midway through the fourth quarter. I expect it to be close throughout, so that likely means a lot of free throws down the stretch... easy points for us when the clock is stopped. I'll take my chances with the OVER tonight.
BUFFALO BULLS --- Wasn't it just a week ago today, in this very same spot the Bulls were a small favorite over Bowling Green at home? Didn't the Bulls grab a 29-16 second half lead, but failed to step on the Falcons' throats and let them come all the way back?
Look, I'm not overly excited about this game because the MAC is one of the hardest conferences to figure out. Kent State and Miami Oh. were once a laughing stock but have beaten some teams they shouldn't have beaten. Western Michigan was supposed to be a very explosive offense, but they've struggled to score points at times. Toledo opened like gangbusters, but have fallen completely apart. Temple beats Navy outright at Navy, but comes back home and nearly loses to Miami, Oh. Like I said, tough conference.
But one thing I know... the home team in this series has won 8 of the last 10 meetings, and since we're dealing with such a small point spread, chances are the team that wins, covers. I'm also a guy who likes to buck the trends when it comes to the MAC. I realize it's not a very precise way to handicap a game, and normally I don't do that, but this conference is just weird. It doesn't make sense. Teams that win weren't supposed to win. Teams that lose weren't supposed to lose. And although most of the trends (and overall record) lean towards Ohio, the difference in these two teams is minimal.
Buffalo still has plenty of talent on both sides of the ball and they'll be getting a few of their injured players back. Both QBs have legitimate weapons to throw the ball to, but they both make plenty of mistakes and have forced a lot of interceptions. The team that limits the mistakes tonight wins... and I believe Buffalo made enough of them last week vs. Bowling Green that they might not have anymore left in them. Ohio hasn't played for two weeks and will come in a little flat. I'll side with the home team minus the very small impost.
bought and paid for by me
Tuesday's Lineup
25 Dime --- THUNDER
10 Dime --- Nuggets-Bulls OVER
5 Dime --- BUFFALO
THUNDER --- To me, this one is pretty simple. Vegas still doesn't quite believe in this OKC Thunder basketball team, so we're going to get line value every time they play until the odds makers start realizing this team is a LOT better than they were last year... by leaps and bounds. HC Scott Brooks has preached defensive intensity to this team in the off-season, and that alone is the biggest difference you'll see from last year's version of the Thunder and this year's version. We knew last year OKC could score with just about anybody in the NBA, but they also had no business ever being a favorite because they couldn't stop anyone. Keep in mind, though, that Brooks didn't start the year as the head coach and was behind the 8-ball from the beginning. Brooks was hired when PJ Carlisemo got canned and really never had a chance to instill his defensive mind-set into this team.
Things have changed in OKC, though, and now that he's had a full off-season to work with them, you can see they are believing in his style of coaching. Don't believe me? Just look at the numbers. Last season the Thunder allowed well over 100 PPG for the season. This year, only two opponents have surpassed the 100-point plateau against them... and one of them was the Lakers and they needed overtime to get there. In fact, the Thunder opened the season vs. the Kings a few weeks ago and held them to 89 points for the game... and this is a Kings team that has scored over 100 points in each of their last four games.
Also keep in mind, Sacramento will be without their leading scorer, G Kevin Margin who is sidelined with a wrist injury. Martin was a huge factor in that game, scoring 27 points and dishing out 4 assists and I'm not sure they have anyone else on their bench that's capable of posting those type of numbers vs. this defensive-minded OKC Thunder bunch. We're also getting really good line value tonight because the game is on the road, otherwise we'd be asked to lay 7 or more points again... obviously I feel more comfortable laying one or two tonight. The road team is 13-4 ATS in the last 17 meetings between these two, and with them having already played once this season, I gotta take my chances with OKC to "steal" a road win from an overmatched Sacramento team tonight.
DENVER/CHICAGO OVER --- You want points? Watch tonight's Denver/Chicago matchup in the windy city. Denver started the season as one of the hottest teams in the NBA but have dropped two straight road games and will be without shot-blocker Kenyon Martin tonight.Denver's offense has kinda been "on hold" during these last two losses, but you can bet George Karl is going to open the flood gates for his Nuggets tonight as they realize the importance of this road win tonight. Denver comes in averaging 109 PPG on the season, but have been limited to just 100 and 88 in their last two road games. I can promise you this.... when you hold this offense to less than 100 points, they take it personally. They don't believe any team in the NBA should be able to keep their offense quiet, and with a few days rest, you can bet they're going to come out with guns-a-blazin' tonight. Yes, I realize Chicago is only scoring about 90 PPG thus far, but they also haven't faced a defense that's giving up 104 PPG on average either. Chicago has more than enough offensive talent to score points with anyone (Deng, Rose, Noah, Salmons), and defense simply won't be an option tonight. If you like offense, you need to plop down in front of your flat-screen tonight and buckle up for what should be a 110-106 type game. The last seven meetings between these two have gone OVER the total... and those totals were higher than tonight's number of 204. I wouldn't be surprised if this score isn't over the total by midway through the fourth quarter. I expect it to be close throughout, so that likely means a lot of free throws down the stretch... easy points for us when the clock is stopped. I'll take my chances with the OVER tonight.
BUFFALO BULLS --- Wasn't it just a week ago today, in this very same spot the Bulls were a small favorite over Bowling Green at home? Didn't the Bulls grab a 29-16 second half lead, but failed to step on the Falcons' throats and let them come all the way back?
Look, I'm not overly excited about this game because the MAC is one of the hardest conferences to figure out. Kent State and Miami Oh. were once a laughing stock but have beaten some teams they shouldn't have beaten. Western Michigan was supposed to be a very explosive offense, but they've struggled to score points at times. Toledo opened like gangbusters, but have fallen completely apart. Temple beats Navy outright at Navy, but comes back home and nearly loses to Miami, Oh. Like I said, tough conference.
But one thing I know... the home team in this series has won 8 of the last 10 meetings, and since we're dealing with such a small point spread, chances are the team that wins, covers. I'm also a guy who likes to buck the trends when it comes to the MAC. I realize it's not a very precise way to handicap a game, and normally I don't do that, but this conference is just weird. It doesn't make sense. Teams that win weren't supposed to win. Teams that lose weren't supposed to lose. And although most of the trends (and overall record) lean towards Ohio, the difference in these two teams is minimal.
Buffalo still has plenty of talent on both sides of the ball and they'll be getting a few of their injured players back. Both QBs have legitimate weapons to throw the ball to, but they both make plenty of mistakes and have forced a lot of interceptions. The team that limits the mistakes tonight wins... and I believe Buffalo made enough of them last week vs. Bowling Green that they might not have anymore left in them. Ohio hasn't played for two weeks and will come in a little flat. I'll side with the home team minus the very small impost.
bought and paid for by me
Dominic Fazzini
Tuesday's play
20 Dime -- Ohio (plus points vs. BUFFALO)
OHIO
The Bobcats are on a roll, having won four of its last five games, in their quest to win the MAC East Division title.
Senior QB Theo Scott has been effective leading Ohio's offensive attack, completing 55 percent of his passes for 1,437 yards and 13 touchdowns, and the team is averaging 24.4 points per game.
The Bobcats, who lead the nation in takeaways with 27, have won four straight MAC road games and are 4-1 SU on the road this season, losing only at Tennessee in September.
Despite losing its last two games to the Bulls, Ohio is 7-4 SU in its last 11 vs. Buffalo. And this is Ohio's only game over a 20-day stretch, so it should be well rested and prepared for the Bulls.
The Bobcats are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 road games, and 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight as a road underdog, while Buffalo is 2-7 ATS in its last nine home games. Take Ohio to cover the points tonight.
bought and paid for by me
Tuesday's play
20 Dime -- Ohio (plus points vs. BUFFALO)
OHIO
The Bobcats are on a roll, having won four of its last five games, in their quest to win the MAC East Division title.
Senior QB Theo Scott has been effective leading Ohio's offensive attack, completing 55 percent of his passes for 1,437 yards and 13 touchdowns, and the team is averaging 24.4 points per game.
The Bobcats, who lead the nation in takeaways with 27, have won four straight MAC road games and are 4-1 SU on the road this season, losing only at Tennessee in September.
Despite losing its last two games to the Bulls, Ohio is 7-4 SU in its last 11 vs. Buffalo. And this is Ohio's only game over a 20-day stretch, so it should be well rested and prepared for the Bulls.
The Bobcats are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 road games, and 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight as a road underdog, while Buffalo is 2-7 ATS in its last nine home games. Take Ohio to cover the points tonight.
bought and paid for by me
Dave Malinsky 11/10
Top of the Ticket – Side
Oklahoma City Thunder(-1.5) over SACRAMENTO KINGS
4* OKLAHOMA CITY over SACRAMENTO What do we read into Sacramento winning the first two games without Kevin Martin on the court? Nothing. What do we read Oklahoma City?s 3-3 start that would seemingly elicit yawns? Plenty. That means that we have excellent value to back what is not only the far better team, but also one that is physically and mentally tougher, which makes a big difference in terms of grinding out SU wins in such a setting. The Kings did what teams often do when a key player is sidelined ? they buckle down and play very hard for the first game or two, while also catching the opposition flat. This is not a lineup that forces an opponent to pay much attention in the film room. But it is after that first wave of adrenaline wears off, and when the other side now takes them seriously, that the crash happens. This is a young team lacking in experience and chemistry, and while they were given an invitation to be successful in a wide open game vs. mindless Golden State on Sunday night, that flow changes in a major way here. Oklahoma City is an under-rated item in this pointspread range. While bringing in top-level young talents like Kevin Durrant, Jeff Green and Russell Westbrook did create a level of visibility, the additions of Nenad Krstic, Thabo Sefolosha and Etan Thomas on the court, and Maurice Cheeks on the sidelines, were far off of the radar screens. But those additions have provided key pieces to a Thunder puzzle that now fits together in a concise way. Despite facing a challenging schedule through the first six games they are #5 defensively and #5 in rebounding on our best sets of ratings, with the Westbrook/Sefolosha back-court one of the better defensive combos in the league, and the Thomas/Nick Collison duo a tremendous defense and rebounding tandem off the bench (from Scott Brooks, on that latter duo - ?It?s huge. We have two energy, intangible players coming off the bench. They create offense by just playing hard, cutting hard, getting offensive rebounds and making the extra pass. And defensively, they?re tough.?) Sacramento has yet to be forced into a half-court game since losing Martin. The Kings led 85-68 going into the fourth quarter vs. Utah and coasted, and were never pushed in that playground game vs. Golden State. Now they will have to play some precision basketball for the first time with the current starting lineup, and that means breakdowns on both ends of the court. Tyreke Evans is talented but still raw, which means difficulties getting untracked vs. Sefolosha, and when that happens the entire offense bogs down. Meanwhile a defense that rates 27th on our best charts brings even more chemistry problems (note in winning those last two games the Warriors and Jazz were 68-126 on 2-point attempts). You do not win many games with such issues.
Top of the Ticket – Side
Oklahoma City Thunder(-1.5) over SACRAMENTO KINGS
4* OKLAHOMA CITY over SACRAMENTO What do we read into Sacramento winning the first two games without Kevin Martin on the court? Nothing. What do we read Oklahoma City?s 3-3 start that would seemingly elicit yawns? Plenty. That means that we have excellent value to back what is not only the far better team, but also one that is physically and mentally tougher, which makes a big difference in terms of grinding out SU wins in such a setting. The Kings did what teams often do when a key player is sidelined ? they buckle down and play very hard for the first game or two, while also catching the opposition flat. This is not a lineup that forces an opponent to pay much attention in the film room. But it is after that first wave of adrenaline wears off, and when the other side now takes them seriously, that the crash happens. This is a young team lacking in experience and chemistry, and while they were given an invitation to be successful in a wide open game vs. mindless Golden State on Sunday night, that flow changes in a major way here. Oklahoma City is an under-rated item in this pointspread range. While bringing in top-level young talents like Kevin Durrant, Jeff Green and Russell Westbrook did create a level of visibility, the additions of Nenad Krstic, Thabo Sefolosha and Etan Thomas on the court, and Maurice Cheeks on the sidelines, were far off of the radar screens. But those additions have provided key pieces to a Thunder puzzle that now fits together in a concise way. Despite facing a challenging schedule through the first six games they are #5 defensively and #5 in rebounding on our best sets of ratings, with the Westbrook/Sefolosha back-court one of the better defensive combos in the league, and the Thomas/Nick Collison duo a tremendous defense and rebounding tandem off the bench (from Scott Brooks, on that latter duo - ?It?s huge. We have two energy, intangible players coming off the bench. They create offense by just playing hard, cutting hard, getting offensive rebounds and making the extra pass. And defensively, they?re tough.?) Sacramento has yet to be forced into a half-court game since losing Martin. The Kings led 85-68 going into the fourth quarter vs. Utah and coasted, and were never pushed in that playground game vs. Golden State. Now they will have to play some precision basketball for the first time with the current starting lineup, and that means breakdowns on both ends of the court. Tyreke Evans is talented but still raw, which means difficulties getting untracked vs. Sefolosha, and when that happens the entire offense bogs down. Meanwhile a defense that rates 27th on our best charts brings even more chemistry problems (note in winning those last two games the Warriors and Jazz were 68-126 on 2-point attempts). You do not win many games with such issues.
Randall the Handle 11/10
Pittsburgh +1.27 over BOSTON (REG) Pinnacle
How quickly we forget in this “what have you done for me lately” era? Yes, the Pens have dropped two straight by a combined score of 10-2. Yes, they’re still without Malkin, Gonchar, Kennedy and Letang and those are four front-line NHL players. However, they’re still the Penguins, they’re still highly motivated, they still have Crosby, Kunitz, Staal, Guerin, Goligoski and a bunch more solid NHL players and best of all, they’ll be in a foul mood after those two losses. Furthermore, the Bruins have scored eight goals in its last six games and if you throw out its last game against the Sabres in which they scored four, the Bruins would have four goals in its last five games. This is a Boston team that is struggling miserably to score goals and to win games. In fact, the B’s have just two wins over its last six and one of those was at home against the then flu-ridden Oilers. So, Boston beat the Sabres and the Pens have dropped two straight and suddenly the Bruins woes are over? I don’t think so. Oh, lest we forget that Pens are still 7-2 on the road. Play: Pittsburgh +1.27 (Risking 2 units).
TORONTO -½ +1.22 over Minnesota (REG) Pinnacle
It would appear that the Maple Leafs finally have an answer to what has ailed them for years. Jonas Gustavsson has been terrific the past few games and he’s just getting better. Gustavsson is big, he’s quick and he’s very tough to beat. In fact, the Leafs have allowed just five goals against in its last three games. Even more important is the confidence Gustavsson gives the team, as they’re no longer deflated by bad goals and paying for every mistake. The Leafs have picked up points in seven straight games and a ton of pressure has been relieved in the process. Phil Kessel back in the line-up has also made a huge difference and suddenly, the Leafs look like a whole different team. Meanwhile, the Wild are 1-8 on the road. Offensively, they’re near the bottom of the league with just 36 goals in 16 games and only St. Louis, Carolina and Nashville have fewer. The Leafs are well-rested, they’re confident, they’re scoring goals, the defense and goaltending is dramatically improved and they’ll be playing to an enthusiastic and jacked up crowd. Play: Toronto -½ +1.22 (Risking 2 units).
MONTREAL +1.08 over Calgary (REG) Pinnacle
The Flames 10-4-1-0 record is impressive indeed but this team is not and the record is one that is misleading. In Calgary’s recent 3-2 OT win over Dallas they were outshot 40-23. In its last game against the Rangers, a 3-1 win, they were outplayed and out-shot again 33-22. Last week at home in a 3-1 loss against the Red Wings they managed just 21 shots on net. In that bizarre 6-5 loss to the Blackhawks in which they led 5-0, the Flames were outshot 39-20. Early in the year, Montreal went into Calgary and lost but they outplayed the Flames like so many other have this season. Now the oddsmakers have made the Flames an enticing -½ +1.46 and that my friends tells me that the books will gladly accept all bets on the Flames. The Habs have been unimpressive at best but they brought up some kids (Ryan White and especially Mathieu Carle) that have given them some spark and look a lot better than guys like Hal Gill and Ryan O'Byrne. The line says Canadiens and I’ll gladly go with that. Play: Montreal +1.08 (Risking 2 units).
NBA
Houston/DALLAS over 200½ Pinnacle
Houston is no longer a team that thinks defense first. This is the new-look Rockets that like to move quickly and efficiently and it’s paying off. In fact, the Rockets have won four of its last five and every game over that stretch has gone over the total. In a game in Portland in which the total was 187, the two teams went over the number by 30 points. The Mav’s, too, like to play an up-tempo style and unless both teams are ice cold this one should soar over as well. Josh Howard is back for the Mav’s and will play his second game of the year after scoring 16 vs the Raps on Saturday. The Mav’s have not hit their stride offensively yet but this is a game they’ll have plenty of great looks and easy layups because that’s the way the Rockets play it. Play: Houston/Dallas over 200½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
Pittsburgh +1.27 over BOSTON (REG) Pinnacle
How quickly we forget in this “what have you done for me lately” era? Yes, the Pens have dropped two straight by a combined score of 10-2. Yes, they’re still without Malkin, Gonchar, Kennedy and Letang and those are four front-line NHL players. However, they’re still the Penguins, they’re still highly motivated, they still have Crosby, Kunitz, Staal, Guerin, Goligoski and a bunch more solid NHL players and best of all, they’ll be in a foul mood after those two losses. Furthermore, the Bruins have scored eight goals in its last six games and if you throw out its last game against the Sabres in which they scored four, the Bruins would have four goals in its last five games. This is a Boston team that is struggling miserably to score goals and to win games. In fact, the B’s have just two wins over its last six and one of those was at home against the then flu-ridden Oilers. So, Boston beat the Sabres and the Pens have dropped two straight and suddenly the Bruins woes are over? I don’t think so. Oh, lest we forget that Pens are still 7-2 on the road. Play: Pittsburgh +1.27 (Risking 2 units).
TORONTO -½ +1.22 over Minnesota (REG) Pinnacle
It would appear that the Maple Leafs finally have an answer to what has ailed them for years. Jonas Gustavsson has been terrific the past few games and he’s just getting better. Gustavsson is big, he’s quick and he’s very tough to beat. In fact, the Leafs have allowed just five goals against in its last three games. Even more important is the confidence Gustavsson gives the team, as they’re no longer deflated by bad goals and paying for every mistake. The Leafs have picked up points in seven straight games and a ton of pressure has been relieved in the process. Phil Kessel back in the line-up has also made a huge difference and suddenly, the Leafs look like a whole different team. Meanwhile, the Wild are 1-8 on the road. Offensively, they’re near the bottom of the league with just 36 goals in 16 games and only St. Louis, Carolina and Nashville have fewer. The Leafs are well-rested, they’re confident, they’re scoring goals, the defense and goaltending is dramatically improved and they’ll be playing to an enthusiastic and jacked up crowd. Play: Toronto -½ +1.22 (Risking 2 units).
MONTREAL +1.08 over Calgary (REG) Pinnacle
The Flames 10-4-1-0 record is impressive indeed but this team is not and the record is one that is misleading. In Calgary’s recent 3-2 OT win over Dallas they were outshot 40-23. In its last game against the Rangers, a 3-1 win, they were outplayed and out-shot again 33-22. Last week at home in a 3-1 loss against the Red Wings they managed just 21 shots on net. In that bizarre 6-5 loss to the Blackhawks in which they led 5-0, the Flames were outshot 39-20. Early in the year, Montreal went into Calgary and lost but they outplayed the Flames like so many other have this season. Now the oddsmakers have made the Flames an enticing -½ +1.46 and that my friends tells me that the books will gladly accept all bets on the Flames. The Habs have been unimpressive at best but they brought up some kids (Ryan White and especially Mathieu Carle) that have given them some spark and look a lot better than guys like Hal Gill and Ryan O'Byrne. The line says Canadiens and I’ll gladly go with that. Play: Montreal +1.08 (Risking 2 units).
NBA
Houston/DALLAS over 200½ Pinnacle
Houston is no longer a team that thinks defense first. This is the new-look Rockets that like to move quickly and efficiently and it’s paying off. In fact, the Rockets have won four of its last five and every game over that stretch has gone over the total. In a game in Portland in which the total was 187, the two teams went over the number by 30 points. The Mav’s, too, like to play an up-tempo style and unless both teams are ice cold this one should soar over as well. Josh Howard is back for the Mav’s and will play his second game of the year after scoring 16 vs the Raps on Saturday. The Mav’s have not hit their stride offensively yet but this is a game they’ll have plenty of great looks and easy layups because that’s the way the Rockets play it. Play: Houston/Dallas over 200½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
Unlocked Sports 11/10
2* Charlotte Bobcats +4
The public is all over the Orlando Magic on this one. This team got destroyed by Oklahoma City 102-74 two days ago so there is no question that they will be fired up for this one. However, we cannot ignore the value that we are getting on the Bobcats. Charlotte is 3-0 at home this season and 5-0 ATS in its last 5 overall
The Bobcats are a much healthier team than Orlando is at the moment. More importantly, we cannot ignore Charlotte’s statistics at home in this early season. They are outscoring their opponents by an average margin of 11 points per game and opponents are hitting only 22.6% of their 3 point attempts. The trends also tell the story in this one. Charlotte is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 home contests. Orlando is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 contests after scoring less than 75 points in its previous contests. Orlando is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 meetings in Charlotte and the home team is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Lay the number on Charlotte.
2* Charlotte Bobcats +4
The public is all over the Orlando Magic on this one. This team got destroyed by Oklahoma City 102-74 two days ago so there is no question that they will be fired up for this one. However, we cannot ignore the value that we are getting on the Bobcats. Charlotte is 3-0 at home this season and 5-0 ATS in its last 5 overall
The Bobcats are a much healthier team than Orlando is at the moment. More importantly, we cannot ignore Charlotte’s statistics at home in this early season. They are outscoring their opponents by an average margin of 11 points per game and opponents are hitting only 22.6% of their 3 point attempts. The trends also tell the story in this one. Charlotte is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 home contests. Orlando is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 contests after scoring less than 75 points in its previous contests. Orlando is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 meetings in Charlotte and the home team is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Lay the number on Charlotte.
SPORTS WAGERS
Houston/DALLAS over 200½
Houston is no longer a team that thinks defense first. This is the new-look Rockets that like to move quickly and efficiently and it’s paying off. In fact, the Rockets have won four of its last five and every game over that stretch has gone over the total. In a game in Portland in which the total was 187, the two teams went over the number by 30 points. The Mav’s, too, like to play an up-tempo style and unless both teams are ice cold this one should soar over as well. Josh Howard is back for the Mav’s and will play his second game of the year after scoring 16 vs the Raps on Saturday. The Mav’s have not hit their stride offensively yet but this is a game they’ll have plenty of great looks and easy layups because that’s the way the Rockets play it. Play: Houston/Dallas over 200½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
Pittsburgh +1.27 over BOSTON
How quickly we forget in this “what have you done for me lately” era? Yes, the Pens have dropped two straight by a combined score of 10-2. Yes, they’re still without Malkin, Gonchar, Kennedy and Letang and those are four front-line NHL players. However, they’re still the Penguins, they’re still highly motivated, they still have Crosby, Kunitz, Staal, Guerin, Goligoski and a bunch more solid NHL players and best of all, they’ll be in a foul mood after those two losses. Furthermore, the Bruins have scored eight goals in its last six games and if you throw out its last game against the Sabres in which they scored four, the Bruins would have four goals in its last five games. This is a Boston team that is struggling miserably to score goals and to win games. In fact, the B’s have just two wins over its last six and one of those was at home against the then flu-ridden Oilers. So, Boston beat the Sabres and the Pens have dropped two straight and suddenly the Bruins woes are over? I don’t think so. Oh, lest we forget that Pens are still 7-2 on the road. Play: Pittsburgh +1.27 (Risking 2 units).
TORONTO -½ +1.22 over Minnesota
It would appear that the Maple Leafs finally have an answer to what has ailed them for years. Jonas Gustavsson has been terrific the past few games and he’s just getting better. Gustavsson is big, he’s quick and he’s very tough to beat. In fact, the Leafs have allowed just five goals against in its last three games. Even more important is the confidence Gustavsson gives the team, as they’re no longer deflated by bad goals and paying for every mistake. The Leafs have picked up points in seven straight games and a ton of pressure has been relieved in the process. Phil Kessel back in the line-up has also made a huge difference and suddenly, the Leafs look like a whole different team. Meanwhile, the Wild are 1-8 on the road. Offensively, they’re near the bottom of the league with just 36 goals in 16 games and only St. Louis, Carolina and Nashville have fewer. The Leafs are well-rested, they’re confident, they’re scoring goals, the defense and goaltending is dramatically improved and they’ll be playing to an enthusiastic and jacked up crowd. Play: Toronto -½ +1.22 (Risking 2 units).
MONTREAL +1.08 over Calgary
The Flames 10-4-1-0 record is impressive indeed but this team is not and the record is one that is misleading. In Calgary’s recent 3-2 OT win over Dallas they were outshot 40-23. In its last game against the Rangers, a 3-1 win, they were outplayed and out-shot again 33-22. Last week at home in a 3-1 loss against the Red Wings they managed just 21 shots on net. In that bizarre 6-5 loss to the Blackhawks in which they led 5-0, the Flames were outshot 39-20. Early in the year, Montreal went into Calgary and lost but they outplayed the Flames like so many other have this season. Now the oddsmakers have made the Flames an enticing -½ +1.46 and that my friends tells me that the books will gladly accept all bets on the Flames. The Habs have been unimpressive at best but they brought up some kids (Ryan White and especially Mathieu Carle) that have given them some spark and look a lot better than guys like Hal Gill and Ryan O'Byrne. The line says Canadiens and I’ll gladly go with that. Play: Montreal +1.08 (Risking 2 units).
Houston/DALLAS over 200½
Houston is no longer a team that thinks defense first. This is the new-look Rockets that like to move quickly and efficiently and it’s paying off. In fact, the Rockets have won four of its last five and every game over that stretch has gone over the total. In a game in Portland in which the total was 187, the two teams went over the number by 30 points. The Mav’s, too, like to play an up-tempo style and unless both teams are ice cold this one should soar over as well. Josh Howard is back for the Mav’s and will play his second game of the year after scoring 16 vs the Raps on Saturday. The Mav’s have not hit their stride offensively yet but this is a game they’ll have plenty of great looks and easy layups because that’s the way the Rockets play it. Play: Houston/Dallas over 200½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
Pittsburgh +1.27 over BOSTON
How quickly we forget in this “what have you done for me lately” era? Yes, the Pens have dropped two straight by a combined score of 10-2. Yes, they’re still without Malkin, Gonchar, Kennedy and Letang and those are four front-line NHL players. However, they’re still the Penguins, they’re still highly motivated, they still have Crosby, Kunitz, Staal, Guerin, Goligoski and a bunch more solid NHL players and best of all, they’ll be in a foul mood after those two losses. Furthermore, the Bruins have scored eight goals in its last six games and if you throw out its last game against the Sabres in which they scored four, the Bruins would have four goals in its last five games. This is a Boston team that is struggling miserably to score goals and to win games. In fact, the B’s have just two wins over its last six and one of those was at home against the then flu-ridden Oilers. So, Boston beat the Sabres and the Pens have dropped two straight and suddenly the Bruins woes are over? I don’t think so. Oh, lest we forget that Pens are still 7-2 on the road. Play: Pittsburgh +1.27 (Risking 2 units).
TORONTO -½ +1.22 over Minnesota
It would appear that the Maple Leafs finally have an answer to what has ailed them for years. Jonas Gustavsson has been terrific the past few games and he’s just getting better. Gustavsson is big, he’s quick and he’s very tough to beat. In fact, the Leafs have allowed just five goals against in its last three games. Even more important is the confidence Gustavsson gives the team, as they’re no longer deflated by bad goals and paying for every mistake. The Leafs have picked up points in seven straight games and a ton of pressure has been relieved in the process. Phil Kessel back in the line-up has also made a huge difference and suddenly, the Leafs look like a whole different team. Meanwhile, the Wild are 1-8 on the road. Offensively, they’re near the bottom of the league with just 36 goals in 16 games and only St. Louis, Carolina and Nashville have fewer. The Leafs are well-rested, they’re confident, they’re scoring goals, the defense and goaltending is dramatically improved and they’ll be playing to an enthusiastic and jacked up crowd. Play: Toronto -½ +1.22 (Risking 2 units).
MONTREAL +1.08 over Calgary
The Flames 10-4-1-0 record is impressive indeed but this team is not and the record is one that is misleading. In Calgary’s recent 3-2 OT win over Dallas they were outshot 40-23. In its last game against the Rangers, a 3-1 win, they were outplayed and out-shot again 33-22. Last week at home in a 3-1 loss against the Red Wings they managed just 21 shots on net. In that bizarre 6-5 loss to the Blackhawks in which they led 5-0, the Flames were outshot 39-20. Early in the year, Montreal went into Calgary and lost but they outplayed the Flames like so many other have this season. Now the oddsmakers have made the Flames an enticing -½ +1.46 and that my friends tells me that the books will gladly accept all bets on the Flames. The Habs have been unimpressive at best but they brought up some kids (Ryan White and especially Mathieu Carle) that have given them some spark and look a lot better than guys like Hal Gill and Ryan O'Byrne. The line says Canadiens and I’ll gladly go with that. Play: Montreal +1.08 (Risking 2 units).
Denver Money's NHL Tuesday 11/10
We got us another sweep yesterday as the Blackhawks took it to LA winning 4-1 to give us another 2* winner on Chicago and a 1* on the UNDER. Tonight we will have 4 plays as we look to keep the hot streak going and melt the ice! Best of luck if you fade or follow:
1* Toronto Maple Leafs -140
1* Minnesota/Toronto UNDER 6 -140
2* Ottawa Senators -160
1* San Jose Sharks -1.5 +115
We got us another sweep yesterday as the Blackhawks took it to LA winning 4-1 to give us another 2* winner on Chicago and a 1* on the UNDER. Tonight we will have 4 plays as we look to keep the hot streak going and melt the ice! Best of luck if you fade or follow:
1* Toronto Maple Leafs -140
1* Minnesota/Toronto UNDER 6 -140
2* Ottawa Senators -160
1* San Jose Sharks -1.5 +115
B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G
5* W is eg uy O hio/Buf falo ESPN 2 "S id e" S ur ef ir e on Buffalo -1
When looking at the numbers, Buffalo is the better team despite having the worse record. The odds makers realize it and that's why they have listed the Bulls as the favorite, and for good reason. Scoring-wise they are pretty identical with Ohio averaging 24.4 points/game and Buffalo averaging 23.8 points/game. But when you look at total yards, it's clear that the Bulls have the better offense. Buffalo puts up 411 total yards/game this season compared to Ohio's 315 total yards/game. Defensively, the Bobcats have a slight edge, allowing 333 yards/game while Buffalo yields 354 yards/game. There is no question that Buffalo has played the tougher schedule thus far with games against Pittsburgh, Temple and Central Michigan. Ohio has been terrible in their last 2 games, trying to choke away their season. They lost at home to Kent State 11-20 and followed that up with a 20-17 road win at Ball State, who are just 1-8 this season. Buffalo is the better team and it will show on the field Tuesday night. Buffalo is 2-0 in their last 2 meetings with Ohio, winning 31-10 at home in 2007 and 32-19 on the road in 2008. The Bobcats are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0. The Bulls are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS loss. Ohio is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992. The Bobcats are getting sloppy, committing 5 turnovers in their last 2 games. Buffalo is taking care of the ball lately, committing just 4 turnovers in their last 4 games. Take Buffalo and lay the points.
5* W is eg uy O hio/Buf falo ESPN 2 "S id e" S ur ef ir e on Buffalo -1
When looking at the numbers, Buffalo is the better team despite having the worse record. The odds makers realize it and that's why they have listed the Bulls as the favorite, and for good reason. Scoring-wise they are pretty identical with Ohio averaging 24.4 points/game and Buffalo averaging 23.8 points/game. But when you look at total yards, it's clear that the Bulls have the better offense. Buffalo puts up 411 total yards/game this season compared to Ohio's 315 total yards/game. Defensively, the Bobcats have a slight edge, allowing 333 yards/game while Buffalo yields 354 yards/game. There is no question that Buffalo has played the tougher schedule thus far with games against Pittsburgh, Temple and Central Michigan. Ohio has been terrible in their last 2 games, trying to choke away their season. They lost at home to Kent State 11-20 and followed that up with a 20-17 road win at Ball State, who are just 1-8 this season. Buffalo is the better team and it will show on the field Tuesday night. Buffalo is 2-0 in their last 2 meetings with Ohio, winning 31-10 at home in 2007 and 32-19 on the road in 2008. The Bobcats are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0. The Bulls are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS loss. Ohio is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992. The Bobcats are getting sloppy, committing 5 turnovers in their last 2 games. Buffalo is taking care of the ball lately, committing just 4 turnovers in their last 4 games. Take Buffalo and lay the points.
B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G
6* W id ow W is eg uy N B A N on-Con fer ence K NO CKO UT on Denver Nuggets -2(-110 at bodog)
Off 2 straight losses, look for Denver to come out playing inspired basketball tonight in Chicago. The Bulls have won 3 straight, but all 3 wins have come by 3 points or less and only 1 was of any significance. They did beat Cleveland on the road by 1, but the Bulls only beat the Bucks at home by 2 and the Bobcats at home by 3. Denver is a better than Cleveland, and tonight they will be on top of their game as they avoid losing 3 straight. The Bulls are 17-34 ATS (-20.4 Units) off a home win over the last 3 seasons. The Nuggets are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a S.U. loss. The Bulls are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 home games, failing to cover the spread 86% of the time. The Nuggets are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Denver is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games. Take the Nuggets and lay the points.
6* W id ow W is eg uy N B A N on-Con fer ence K NO CKO UT on Denver Nuggets -2(-110 at bodog)
Off 2 straight losses, look for Denver to come out playing inspired basketball tonight in Chicago. The Bulls have won 3 straight, but all 3 wins have come by 3 points or less and only 1 was of any significance. They did beat Cleveland on the road by 1, but the Bulls only beat the Bucks at home by 2 and the Bobcats at home by 3. Denver is a better than Cleveland, and tonight they will be on top of their game as they avoid losing 3 straight. The Bulls are 17-34 ATS (-20.4 Units) off a home win over the last 3 seasons. The Nuggets are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a S.U. loss. The Bulls are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 home games, failing to cover the spread 86% of the time. The Nuggets are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Denver is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games. Take the Nuggets and lay the points.
Bob Balfe
OHIO +1.5
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]When rating these teams the offense get a tie, but on defense Ohio is a lot better and are a lot healthier. Every defensive back is nursing and injury on Buffalo and to make things worst the suspended their QB for the first quarter of tonight's game and they will be without their top running back for the entire game. Now I give the advantage on offense, defense and special teams to Ohio. The Bobcats are also playing for a MAC Title while Buffalo has to win out just to get bowl eligible. Ohio is a better team playing for bigger cause. Take Ohio.[/FONT]
OHIO +1.5
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]When rating these teams the offense get a tie, but on defense Ohio is a lot better and are a lot healthier. Every defensive back is nursing and injury on Buffalo and to make things worst the suspended their QB for the first quarter of tonight's game and they will be without their top running back for the entire game. Now I give the advantage on offense, defense and special teams to Ohio. The Bobcats are also playing for a MAC Title while Buffalo has to win out just to get bowl eligible. Ohio is a better team playing for bigger cause. Take Ohio.[/FONT]
BlacK Widow
4* on Blazers/Grizzlies OVER 201.5(-102 at 5dimes)
Memphis is scoring 105.9 points/game this season. They have played 7 games, and they are 1-6 through those 7 contests. That's not a record you would expect for a team who is scoring 106 points/game. Their problem has been on the defensive side, where Memphis is allowing 114.7 points/game this season. The Grizzlies are going to play in shootouts all season because of their style of play. That's why this total has been set too low tonight as they host the Portland Trail Blazers, who should put up another big number on the Grizzlies. The OVER is 5-1 in the Grizzlies' last 6 games overall. The OVER is 7-1 in Grizzlies last 8 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5. We look for both teams to top the 100-point mark tonight. Take the OVER 201.5 points.
4* on Blazers/Grizzlies OVER 201.5(-102 at 5dimes)
Memphis is scoring 105.9 points/game this season. They have played 7 games, and they are 1-6 through those 7 contests. That's not a record you would expect for a team who is scoring 106 points/game. Their problem has been on the defensive side, where Memphis is allowing 114.7 points/game this season. The Grizzlies are going to play in shootouts all season because of their style of play. That's why this total has been set too low tonight as they host the Portland Trail Blazers, who should put up another big number on the Grizzlies. The OVER is 5-1 in the Grizzlies' last 6 games overall. The OVER is 7-1 in Grizzlies last 8 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5. We look for both teams to top the 100-point mark tonight. Take the OVER 201.5 points.
