Dave Essler Double Dime bet
Clemson/NC State Under
Yes, it would be very easy to assume this is a 38-35 game or even higher, based on not only last years' game but the very fact that Clemson is the third ranked team in the nation and they've got the Star Power on offense. I suppose it could be that type of game, but that's the last thing I see. Remember, that's ten touchdowns to lose this bet.
Coming in, NC State simply has to know they're probably not going to want to get into a shootout with Clemson and expect to win. They'll do whatever they can to keep the ball, and in their first two games they were very good at it, holding time of possession about 67% of the time. True, those two games were against La Tech and Richmond, but in fact one would think the opposite would be true and that they'd score rather easily and NOT hold the ball the whole game. Two things. First of all in those game the Wolfpack kicked seven field goals and scored six touchdowns. That's just terrible Red Zone play, and if that happens again on Thursday, that's four less points per possession every time it does. Also, NC State figured to win both those games, so this is indeed the game THEY'VE been looking to as much as Clemson has. And they, as well as Clemson, bring back three defensive lineman and two linebackers. Nobody talks about defense, but they'll be the ones that win this game for either side.
Pete Thomas has some gaudy numbers here, but remember, he's a CSU transfer that's never played in a game of this magnitude, or at least one with an huge ESPN audience. And clearly Doeren knows that and won't ask him to win the game, at least not early. And with the Northern Illinois pedigree, you simply know the Wolfpack will be disciplined on defense.
Then there's Clemson, who we like to knock for not having a defense, but they came up pretty big against UGA, who is obviously far superior on offense to the Wolfpack. BOTH teams have had extra prep time, and Clemson's second game against SC State wasn't even a challenge, so they really haven't had to exert anything since the opening night, and that was at home. NC State was a DD dog twice last year, and at home beat FSU outright, and even in that Clemson game, lost but covered the big number.
Last years game featured over 1300 yards of total offense, and Clemson RAN for over 300 yards, while BOTH teams threw for over 400 yards! It would be easy to assume that happens again, but back to the original point, what was the outcome and does NC State want that again? I doubt it, and as the home team, they should be able to dictate some of the flow here. We're hearing all this talk about Clemson remembering what happened here two years ago, but that was then and thi½s is now, and Clemson being the heavy chalk and highly ranked has been something they just can't seem to live up to year after year. The sharp side here is the Wolfpack, as of this writing, and if they're going to cover the 14 points, this should struggle to hit 60, really. I could only wish is were not even THAT close, but they should find a way to make enough mistakes (remember, it's still early and timing isn't perfect) or fail in the Red Zone enough times to keep this game under the number. Remember, NC State has something to prove here, too. That they can not let Taj Boyd break school records (which he did last year in this game) and account for eight touchdowns. Not with Doeren coaching this team, and Clemson's defense may not be LSU's, but they are a bit under rated.
And FWIW I also lean and am betting the UNDER in the NFL game at 51.5, but that number may be gone by Thursday night. This one shouldn't be.