Service Plays Thursday 9/19/13

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Dave Essler Double Dime bet

Clemson/NC State Under

Yes, it would be very easy to assume this is a 38-35 game or even higher, based on not only last years' game but the very fact that Clemson is the third ranked team in the nation and they've got the Star Power on offense. I suppose it could be that type of game, but that's the last thing I see. Remember, that's ten touchdowns to lose this bet.


Coming in, NC State simply has to know they're probably not going to want to get into a shootout with Clemson and expect to win. They'll do whatever they can to keep the ball, and in their first two games they were very good at it, holding time of possession about 67% of the time. True, those two games were against La Tech and Richmond, but in fact one would think the opposite would be true and that they'd score rather easily and NOT hold the ball the whole game. Two things. First of all in those game the Wolfpack kicked seven field goals and scored six touchdowns. That's just terrible Red Zone play, and if that happens again on Thursday, that's four less points per possession every time it does. Also, NC State figured to win both those games, so this is indeed the game THEY'VE been looking to as much as Clemson has. And they, as well as Clemson, bring back three defensive lineman and two linebackers. Nobody talks about defense, but they'll be the ones that win this game for either side.


Pete Thomas has some gaudy numbers here, but remember, he's a CSU transfer that's never played in a game of this magnitude, or at least one with an huge ESPN audience. And clearly Doeren knows that and won't ask him to win the game, at least not early. And with the Northern Illinois pedigree, you simply know the Wolfpack will be disciplined on defense.


Then there's Clemson, who we like to knock for not having a defense, but they came up pretty big against UGA, who is obviously far superior on offense to the Wolfpack. BOTH teams have had extra prep time, and Clemson's second game against SC State wasn't even a challenge, so they really haven't had to exert anything since the opening night, and that was at home. NC State was a DD dog twice last year, and at home beat FSU outright, and even in that Clemson game, lost but covered the big number.


Last years game featured over 1300 yards of total offense, and Clemson RAN for over 300 yards, while BOTH teams threw for over 400 yards! It would be easy to assume that happens again, but back to the original point, what was the outcome and does NC State want that again? I doubt it, and as the home team, they should be able to dictate some of the flow here. We're hearing all this talk about Clemson remembering what happened here two years ago, but that was then and thi½s is now, and Clemson being the heavy chalk and highly ranked has been something they just can't seem to live up to year after year. The sharp side here is the Wolfpack, as of this writing, and if they're going to cover the 14 points, this should struggle to hit 60, really. I could only wish is were not even THAT close, but they should find a way to make enough mistakes (remember, it's still early and timing isn't perfect) or fail in the Red Zone enough times to keep this game under the number. Remember, NC State has something to prove here, too. That they can not let Taj Boyd break school records (which he did last year in this game) and account for eight touchdowns. Not with Doeren coaching this team, and Clemson's defense may not be LSU's, but they are a bit under rated.


And FWIW I also lean and am betting the UNDER in the NFL game at 51.5, but that number may be gone by Thursday night. This one shouldn't be.
 

Snake
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St. Louis @ COLORADO
St. Louis/COLORADO 9½ -107
BEST LINE: Pinnacle over 9½ -107
3:10 PM EST. Roy Oswalt has taken the loss in each of his six appearances this season. It is safe to say that he no longer has the stuff to get MLB hitters out. Last season, his 39% hit rate seemed like an anomaly, yet he has followed it up this season with a 47% hit rate. It’s hard to even put that number into perspective but Oswalt has allowed 40 hits in just 25 innings for a BAA of .360 and a WHIP of 1.75. He takes on the best road offense in the NL in the friendliest hitting environment in MLB. Not a good combination for a pitcher struggling to get hitters out. The Cardinals may go over this number on their own today. The Rockies are almost always good for three or more runs at home and they figure to get at least that today. Michael Wacha was called up in late May and after three starts was sent back down. Upon his August 10 recall, Wacha made a mediocre start, a long relief appearance and five shorter outings. In 15.2 IP, he allowed five ER (over two of the outings), 13 H (nine in the same two outings), and five BB while tossing 23 K. He followed that up with three consecutive quality starts against Cincinnati, San Diego and Seattle. No question that Wacha has a high ceiling but the kid is also a little too green right now to maintain such a low ERA. He’s still walking too many batters (10 BB over his past 24 innings) and he’s benefitted greatly from a high 85% strand rate. Coors Field takes no prisoners and is not usually friendly to pitchers that issues walks. Afternoon games in Colorado also tend to be higher scoring and that sure doesn’t hurt our cause.
 

Snake
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Seattle @ DETROIT
Seattle +168 over DETROIT
BEST LINE: Pinnacle +168
1:00 PM EST. The price here on the Mariners is appealing enough to make a wager. The Tigers have dropped three of Doug Fister’s past four games and over that stretch, the soft tossing right-hander has walked nine batters while striking out 14. Fister has already tossed 194.2 innings this season after throwing just 162 last year and all that wear and tear may be taking a toll. Over his past two home starts against Oakland and K.C., Fister has been tagged for 21 hits in just 12.2 innings. Over his last 32 frames, Fister is sporting an unacceptable 1.67 WHIP. Fister comes in with a BAA of .281 on the season and no matter how you break down his numbers, he’s just too risky to be spotting a price like this.James Paxton is worth riding. For a 24-year old rookie, Paxton has the poise of a 10-year veteran. He also has some solid skills. He’s made just two starts since his call-up and was outstanding in both of them, holding the Rays and Cardinals to a combined six hits in 12 innings. Paxton is coming off a six-inning, two hit shutout in St. Louis. Paxton uses a three-pitch mix, all of which flash plus, to attack hitters in any count. His fastball sits in the mid-90s while his curveball is his most dominant breaking pitch and is used to generate strikeouts. His change-up shows good fade and is used in any count. The tall lefty has continued to post high K rates and decent command throughout his minor league career. Paxton works off establishing his fastball early in counts to set up the curve, but with all three pitches capable of getting a strikeout, it keeps hitters guessing and contributes to his success. He’s been working low in the strike zone and is inducing groundballs at an elite 57% clip so far. Paxton is in tough today but he was also in tough against both the Cardinals and Rays and thrived. His confidence is high, his ability is higher and at this price, the risk is worth the reward.
 

Snake
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Kansas City @ PHILADELPHIA
Kansas City +3 +112 over PHILLY
BEST LINE: Pinnacle +3 +112
Chip Kelley’s offense looked unstoppable in Week 1 but we were quick to point out that it was an offense that had never been seen before and therefore the Redskins could not prepare for it. As it turns out, Washington’s defense is proving to be one of the league’s worst so far. Furthermore, that “great offense” could not keep pace with the visiting Chargers last week. This week, on a short week no less, this rookie coach will now have three days to prepare for a great defense against a veteran coach with huge motivation that knows these Eagles better than himself. Bringing in Andy Reid raised expectations for the Chiefs offense but little did we know that it would make the defense second only to the Seahawks in points allowed. This is a big test this week since the previous road game went well in Jacksonville but they are not being touted as the hot new offense in the NFL. However, last week, K.C.’s defense held the capable Dallas offense to just 16 points overall and just six points after the first quarter. The Chiefs forced Dallas to abandon the running game completely because the ‘Boys could not move forward on the ground. The Eagles will present new problems but Reid does know what his opponent is capable of and exactly which one will do it while Philly Chip knows nothing about the Chiefs. Alex Smith is not terrible, not bad, and maybe good. Game Manager good. He has not only thrown for two scores in both games but he's starting to run more. Against the Cowboys, Smith took off eight times and gained 57 yards for a career high. It adds a nice element to the offense and a new wrinkle for opposing defenses to consider. Alex Smith knows how to win and rarely has a bad game. Smith now faces a team that has allowed over 320 yards to both opponents. The Chiefs offense hasn’t gotten in gear yet but that figures to change here because Philly’s defense is horrible.As the media hypes up Chip Kelly for being an offensive innovator, they seemed to forget that you have to play defense too. The problem with the Eagles offense is, when it succeeds, it’s off the field in two minutes and the defense is sent back out. When it fails, the defense is back out in 30 seconds. This ain’t the Pac 10, Chipper and while the Eagles are a fun and entertaining team to watch, they are a bad team to spot points with because the defense can’t get off the field and that offense is going to look worse week by week as top teams and defensive coordinators make adjustments. We get the better team, the much better defense, a veteran coach that has prepped many times for every situation and we also get to take back some points with juice. We’ll gladly get in line for that.
 

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NFLBettingPicks

Kevin

CFB week 4 picks

We're looking for our first big week with our college football system picks. It has been a tough start, but it's a long season. Things should turn around soon.


Sat Sept 21st - San Jose State @ Minnesota - [338] MINNESOTA -4.5 (-102)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.96 units)


Sat Sept 21st - Oregon State vs San Diego State - [382] SAN DIEGO STATE +10.5 (-110)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.82 units)


Sat Sept 21st - Wyoming @ Air Force - [343] WYOMING -4 (-108)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.85 units)
 

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NFLBettingPicks

Kevin

NFL Week 3

Week 2 was a small losing week and it hasn't been the start I wanted in the NFL, but I also didn't feel too poorly about my picks in Week 2. We took a loss with the Chiefs -3 who won by 1 point as the Cowboys decided to kick a field goal down 4 points pretty late, and our 4 unit teaser play needed Philadelphia to win but their defense couldn't make a stop in a 3 point loss. Our other 4 unit play on the Bengals cashed on Monday, and we won with the Cardinals +1 while taking a Sunday night loss with the OVER (49ers looked like a completely different team going up against a very good Seattle defense).


Right now there are only a few plays I like for Week 3, but I may be adding a Teaser on Friday (I am just waiting for the lines to sharpen up).


2 UNIT = Detroit Lions @ Washington Redskins - OVER 49 POINTS (-109)
2 UNIT = Detroit Lions @ Washington Redskins - REDSKINS -2.5 (-105)
(Note: I’m risking 2.00 units to win 1.83 units)
(Note: I’m risking 2.00 units to win 1.90 units)


2 UNIT = Indianapolis Colts @ San Francisco 49ers - OVER 46 POINTS (-108)
(Note: I’m risking 2.00 units to win 1.85 units)
 

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thanks, yeh, following them for years but expensive, thanks; harry bondi seems to be real deal though
 

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EAGLE EYE SPORTS----RANDY ROSE
Your Pick: Kansas City Chiefs +3 (+100)
Your Pick: Clemson -13.5 (-110)
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Gaming Today

Pro Football Play of the Day September 19, 2013 6:51 AM by GT Staff

Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles at 5:25 p.m. PST

KC defense has been on a roll and Vic is one hit from the showers and what can be better thank Andy Reid getting some revenge over his old team and the Eagles have gone 0-5 ATS coming off a home loss the previous week, revenge will be sweet for Andy and KC.

301 Kansas City Chiefs +3
 
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GamingToday's Consensus Picks September 19, 2013 7:11 AM by GT Staff

NCAA Football

304 NC State +14: Last year the Tigers crushed State on a wild game 62-48 and home revenge will inspire the Wolfpack tonight for a big effort and they have gone 9-0 ATS when seeking revenge against a conference foe and the Pack has also gone a nice 21-5 SU in home openers.

Baseball

951 San Diego Padres +155: The Pirate bats have been still and their once reliable pen blew one last night in the 9th.

955 Chicago Cubs +135: Good dog play as we will stick with our system play and take the cubbies on a five game losing streak, the streak stops tonight.

957 St. Louis Cardinals -180: Cardinals look to pull away from the Pirates and Reds as they look for the sweep in Colorado.

965 Houston Astros +210: Great price for the second of our two system five games as the Astros have dropped five straight games.
 
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Andy Iskoe

Thursday

Chiefs +3 at Eagles (50½): KC coach Andy Reid returns to where he successfully coached the Eagles for more than a decade before falling out of favor. And although he may be unfamiliar with new coach Chip Kelly’s offense, he is very familiar with the personnel who run it. That is a significant edge, especially considering the Chiefs are the much better defensive team and have an offense capable of controlling the clock with a strong running game which will keep the Philly offense on the sidelines. CHIEFS.
 
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Dennis Ball

Thursday

Chiefs +3 at Eagles: Reid inherited a club with a ton of talent and has molded it nicely in the right direction. But I’m betting on Philly to be higher than a kite for their second consecutive home game. Chip Kelly will pull out all stops to avoid losing two in a row. I’m figuring QB Smith doesn’t duplicate that Rivers performance. EAGLES.
 
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GoodFella | MLB Money Line Thu, 09/19/13 - 12:35 PM
double-dime bet ml 952 PIT (-165) Hilton vs 951 SDP
Analysis: MLB Dominator" 2* on PITTSBURGH PIRATES

Listed Pitchers

GoodFella | CFB Side Thu, 09/19/13 - 7:30 PM
double-dime bet 303 Clemson -6.0 (-130) Bookmaker.com vs 304 N.C. State
Analysis:
(2*) Two Team Cross Sport 7 pt Teaser

#303 CLEMSON -6 to #KANSAS CITY CHIEFS +10
 

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Billy Coleman

4* LAD
4* BAL
3* TB UN 6.5

Kelso 100*
4-0 last 4
41-23 last 64 . . . Thanks pic
 

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