MLB
Hot pitchers
-- Cole is 1-0, 2.08 in his last couple starts. Kennedy is 1-0, 3.18 in his last three outings.
-- Bumgarner is 1-0, 2.00 in his last three starts. Niese is 3-1, 2.93 in his last six.
-- Wacha is 2-1, 1.86 in his last five starts.
-- Miley is 1-0, 2.70 in his last two starts. Nolasco is 4-1, 3.00 in his last five starts, but got KO'd in second inning in his last start.
-- Gonzalez is 3-1, 2.93 in his last four starts.
-- Paxton is 2-0, 1.50 in his first two starts.
-- Jimenez is 3-0, 0.84 in his last three starts.
-- Redmond is 2-0, 3.31 in his last three starts.
-- Moore is 7-0, 2.04 in his last ten starts.
-- Straily is 4-0, 1.90 in his last four starts.
Cold pitchers
-- Arrieta is 1-2, 6.66 in his last five starts. Lohse is 1-1, 4.97 in his last four.
-- Oswalt is 0-5, 6.85 in five starts this season.
-- Alvarez is 2-3, 5.28 in his last six starts.
-- Fister is 1-3, 4.50 in his last four starts.
-- Keuchel is 1-2, 7.88 in his last three starts.
-- Kuroda is 0-4, 7.71 in his last six starts.
-- Lackey is 1-2, 4.93 in his last five starts. Tillman is 1-2, 4.43 in his last three.
-- Darvish is 0-4, 3.51 in his last four starts; he lost his last two starts 1-0.
-- Correia is 1-4, 4.05 in his last six starts.
Starting Pitchers/First Inning
You can wager on whether teams will score in the first inning. Below is how often a starting pitcher has allowed 1+ runs in first inning in one of his starts........
-- Kennedy 9-29 (0 of last 8); Cole 5-16 (3 of last 3)
-- Bumgarner 3-30 (0 of last 10); Niese 7-21
-- Arrieta 2-12 (0 of 7 with Chi); Lohse 8-30 (1 of last 12)
-- Wacha 1-7; Oswalt 1-5
-- Nolasco 7-30 (1 of last 8); Miley 10-30 (4 of last 7)
-- Alvarez 2-13; Gonzalez 8-30
-- Paxton 0-2; Fister 7-30
-- Keuchel 3-20 (1 of last 6); Jimenez 6-29 (1 of last 14)
-- Kuroda 9-30 (3 of last 4); Redmond 2-11
-- Tillman 8-30 (4 of last 7); Lackey 10-27 (1 of last 6)
-- Darvish 9-28; Moore 7-24 (1 of last 10)
-- Correia 7-29 (1 of last 15); Straily 6-25 (1 of last 5)
Totals
-- Nine of last twelve San Diego games stayed under the total.
-- Three of last four Giant games went over the total.
-- Ten of last twelve Cub games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Colorado games.
-- Seven of last nine Arizona games went over the total.
-- Six of last eight Miami games stayed under the total.
-- Eight of last eleven Detroit games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 4-0-1 in last five Cleveland games.
-- Last six Toronto games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 11-3-1 in last fifteen Baltimore games.
-- Over is 3-0-1 in last four Tampa Bay games.
-- 11 of last 17 Minnesota games went over the total.
Hot teams
-- San Diego won nine of its last twelve games.
-- Giants won seven of their last ten games. Mets won four of last six.
-- Brewers won six of their last seven games.
-- Cardinals won nine of their last twelve games.
-- Diamondbacks won five of their last seven games.
-- Washington won 12 of its last 15 games..
-- Detroit won six of its last eight games.
-- Indians won ten of their last fifteen games.
-- Red Sox won eight of their last twelve games. Orioles won four of last five.
-- Tampa Bay won five of its last seven games.
-- A's won nine of their last twelve games.
Cold teams
-- Pirates lost last three games, scoring four runs.
-- Cubs are 11-25 in their last 36 games.
-- Colorado lost 11 of its last 15 games.
-- Dodgers lost ten of their last thirteen games.
-- Miami lost ten of its last thirteen games.
-- Mariners lost eight of their last ten games.
-- Astros lost last five games, outscored 30-9.
-- Blue Jays lost six of their last eight games. Bronx lost four of its last five.
-- Texas lost 11 of its last 13 games.
-- Twins lost 10 of their last 14 games.
Hot pitchers
-- Cole is 1-0, 2.08 in his last couple starts. Kennedy is 1-0, 3.18 in his last three outings.
-- Bumgarner is 1-0, 2.00 in his last three starts. Niese is 3-1, 2.93 in his last six.
-- Wacha is 2-1, 1.86 in his last five starts.
-- Miley is 1-0, 2.70 in his last two starts. Nolasco is 4-1, 3.00 in his last five starts, but got KO'd in second inning in his last start.
-- Gonzalez is 3-1, 2.93 in his last four starts.
-- Paxton is 2-0, 1.50 in his first two starts.
-- Jimenez is 3-0, 0.84 in his last three starts.
-- Redmond is 2-0, 3.31 in his last three starts.
-- Moore is 7-0, 2.04 in his last ten starts.
-- Straily is 4-0, 1.90 in his last four starts.
Cold pitchers
-- Arrieta is 1-2, 6.66 in his last five starts. Lohse is 1-1, 4.97 in his last four.
-- Oswalt is 0-5, 6.85 in five starts this season.
-- Alvarez is 2-3, 5.28 in his last six starts.
-- Fister is 1-3, 4.50 in his last four starts.
-- Keuchel is 1-2, 7.88 in his last three starts.
-- Kuroda is 0-4, 7.71 in his last six starts.
-- Lackey is 1-2, 4.93 in his last five starts. Tillman is 1-2, 4.43 in his last three.
-- Darvish is 0-4, 3.51 in his last four starts; he lost his last two starts 1-0.
-- Correia is 1-4, 4.05 in his last six starts.
Starting Pitchers/First Inning
You can wager on whether teams will score in the first inning. Below is how often a starting pitcher has allowed 1+ runs in first inning in one of his starts........
-- Kennedy 9-29 (0 of last 8); Cole 5-16 (3 of last 3)
-- Bumgarner 3-30 (0 of last 10); Niese 7-21
-- Arrieta 2-12 (0 of 7 with Chi); Lohse 8-30 (1 of last 12)
-- Wacha 1-7; Oswalt 1-5
-- Nolasco 7-30 (1 of last 8); Miley 10-30 (4 of last 7)
-- Alvarez 2-13; Gonzalez 8-30
-- Paxton 0-2; Fister 7-30
-- Keuchel 3-20 (1 of last 6); Jimenez 6-29 (1 of last 14)
-- Kuroda 9-30 (3 of last 4); Redmond 2-11
-- Tillman 8-30 (4 of last 7); Lackey 10-27 (1 of last 6)
-- Darvish 9-28; Moore 7-24 (1 of last 10)
-- Correia 7-29 (1 of last 15); Straily 6-25 (1 of last 5)
Totals
-- Nine of last twelve San Diego games stayed under the total.
-- Three of last four Giant games went over the total.
-- Ten of last twelve Cub games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Colorado games.
-- Seven of last nine Arizona games went over the total.
-- Six of last eight Miami games stayed under the total.
-- Eight of last eleven Detroit games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 4-0-1 in last five Cleveland games.
-- Last six Toronto games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 11-3-1 in last fifteen Baltimore games.
-- Over is 3-0-1 in last four Tampa Bay games.
-- 11 of last 17 Minnesota games went over the total.
Hot teams
-- San Diego won nine of its last twelve games.
-- Giants won seven of their last ten games. Mets won four of last six.
-- Brewers won six of their last seven games.
-- Cardinals won nine of their last twelve games.
-- Diamondbacks won five of their last seven games.
-- Washington won 12 of its last 15 games..
-- Detroit won six of its last eight games.
-- Indians won ten of their last fifteen games.
-- Red Sox won eight of their last twelve games. Orioles won four of last five.
-- Tampa Bay won five of its last seven games.
-- A's won nine of their last twelve games.
Cold teams
-- Pirates lost last three games, scoring four runs.
-- Cubs are 11-25 in their last 36 games.
-- Colorado lost 11 of its last 15 games.
-- Dodgers lost ten of their last thirteen games.
-- Miami lost ten of its last thirteen games.
-- Mariners lost eight of their last ten games.
-- Astros lost last five games, outscored 30-9.
-- Blue Jays lost six of their last eight games. Bronx lost four of its last five.
-- Texas lost 11 of its last 13 games.
-- Twins lost 10 of their last 14 games.
[h=1]WNBA Basketball Picks[/h] [h=2]Washington at Atlanta[/h] The Dream look to open up the playoffs and build on their 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 home games versus the Mystics. Atlanta is the pick (-6) according to Dunkel, which has the Dream favored by 8 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-6). Here are all of today's picks.
| THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 19 Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST |
| Game 651-652: Washington at Atlanta (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington 107.664; Atlanta 115.986 Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 8 1/2; 147 Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 6; 152 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-6); Under |
| Game 653-654: Phoenix at Los Angeles (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 110.163; Los Angeles 120.327 Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 10; 168 Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 7 1/2; 161 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-7 1/2); Over |
[h=1]Today's MLB Picks[/h] [h=2]NY Yankees at Toronto[/h] The Yankees look to build on their 5-1 record in Hiroki Kuroda's last 6 starts against the Blue Jays. New York is the pick (-130) according to Dunkel, which has the Yankees favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-130). Here are all of today's picks.
| THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 19 Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST |
| Game 951-952: San Diego at Pittsburgh (12:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Kennedy) 15.770; Pittsburgh (Cole) 14.545 Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-165); 7 Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+145); Over |
| Game 953-954: San Francisco at NY Mets (1:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Bumgarner) 15.739; NY Mets (Niese) 14.137 Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: San Francisco (-150); 7 Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-150); Under |
| Game 955-956: Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee (2:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Arrieta) 14.810; Milwaukee (Lohse) 14.113 Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-155); 8 Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+135); Under |
| Game 957-958: St. Louis at Colorado (3:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wacha) 15.111; Colorado (Oswalt) 13.790 Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 11 Vegas Line: St. Louis (-170); 10 Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-170); Over |
| Game 959-960: LA Dodgers at Arizona (3:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Nolasco) 15.479; Arizona (Miley) 14.274 Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1; 7 Vegas Line: Arizona (-110); 8 Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-110); Under |
| Game 961-962: Miami at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Alvarez) 13.678; Washington (Gonzalez) 16.045 Dunkel Line: Washington by 2 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Washington (-270); 7 Dunkel Pick: Washington (-270); Over |
| Game 963-964: Seattle at Detroit (1:08 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Paxton) 15.435; Detroit (Fister) 14.424 Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 7 Vegas Line: Detroit (-200); 8 Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+170); Under |
| Game 965-966: Houston at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Keuchel) 14.270; Cleveland (Jimenez) 15.727 Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Cleveland (-240); 8 Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-240); Over |
| Game 967-968: NY Yankees at Toronto (7:07 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Kuroda) 16.167; Toronto (Redmond) 14.765 Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-130); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-130); Under |
| Game 969-970: Baltimore at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Tillman) 17.449; Boston (Lackey) 16.658 Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Boston (-140); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+120); Over |
| Game 971-972: Texas at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Darvish) 15.588; Tampa Bay (Moore) 14.671 Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-120); 7 Dunkel Pick: Texas (+100); Over |
| Game 973-974: Minnesota at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Correia) 13.553; Oakland (Straily) 16.026 Dunkel Line: Oakland by 2 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Oakland (-230); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-230); Under |
StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets
MLB CHICAGO CUBS at MILWAUKEE
Play On - All underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 (CHICAGO CUBS)[/B] after being shut out in a loss to a division rival, in a game involving two bad teams (38% to 46%)
31-14 since 1997. ( 68.9% 22.5 units )
StatFox Situational Power Trends - FoxSheets
MLB HOUSTON at CLEVELAND
CLEVELAND is 30-11 (+16.7 Units) against the money line in Home games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse this season.
The average score was: CLEVELAND (4.5) , OPPONENT (3.5)
MLB CHICAGO CUBS at MILWAUKEE
Play On - All underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 (CHICAGO CUBS)[/B] after being shut out in a loss to a division rival, in a game involving two bad teams (38% to 46%)
31-14 since 1997. ( 68.9% 22.5 units )
StatFox Situational Power Trends - FoxSheets
MLB HOUSTON at CLEVELAND
CLEVELAND is 30-11 (+16.7 Units) against the money line in Home games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse this season.
The average score was: CLEVELAND (4.5) , OPPONENT (3.5)
StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets
WNBA WASHINGTON at ATLANTA
Play On - Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ATLANTA) after 2 or more consecutive losses against opponent after 1 or more consecutive wins
109-58 since 1997. ( 65.3% 45.2 units )
4-2 this year. ( 66.7% 1.8 units )
WNBA WASHINGTON at ATLANTA
Play On - Favorites vs. the money line (ATLANTA) revenging a same season loss versus opponent, off a road loss by 10 points or more
130-47 since 1997. ( 73.4% 0.0 units )
3-3 this year. ( 50.0% 0.0 units )
WNBA WASHINGTON at ATLANTA
Play On - Home favorites of 2 to 5.5 points vs. the first half line (ATLANTA)revenging a loss versus opponent against opponent after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite
41-15 since 1997. ( 73.2% 24.5 units )
WNBA WASHINGTON at ATLANTA
Play On - Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ATLANTA) after 2 or more consecutive losses against opponent after 1 or more consecutive wins
109-58 since 1997. ( 65.3% 45.2 units )
4-2 this year. ( 66.7% 1.8 units )
WNBA WASHINGTON at ATLANTA
Play On - Favorites vs. the money line (ATLANTA) revenging a same season loss versus opponent, off a road loss by 10 points or more
130-47 since 1997. ( 73.4% 0.0 units )
3-3 this year. ( 50.0% 0.0 units )
WNBA WASHINGTON at ATLANTA
Play On - Home favorites of 2 to 5.5 points vs. the first half line (ATLANTA)revenging a loss versus opponent against opponent after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite
41-15 since 1997. ( 73.2% 24.5 units )
XpertPicks
Thursday Football Plays
Play Kansas City +3 over Philadelphia (TOP NFL PLAY)--- RISK 10% OF YOUR BANKROLL
8:30 PM EST
Philadelphia has lost 13 of the last 16 home games against the spread and they have also lost 9 of the last 11 games against the spread coming off a home loss. Philadelphia has lost 7 of the last 8 games against the spread after gaining 300 or more passing yards in their last game and they have lost 7 of the last 9 games against the spread when playing in the 1st month of the season.
Play NC State +13.5 over Clemson (TOP NCAA PLAY)---RISK 10% OF YOUR BANKROLL
7:30 PM EST
NC State has won 13 of the last 15 home games and they have won 3 of the last 4 games coming off a bye week. NC State has won 4 of the last 5 games coming off a game where they committed four or more turnovers and they have won 14 of the last 20 games coming off a win by three points or less in their last game.
Parlay BOTH Plays (NC State +13.5 & Kansas City +3)---RISK 10% OF YOUR BANKROLL
Thursday Football Plays
Play Kansas City +3 over Philadelphia (TOP NFL PLAY)--- RISK 10% OF YOUR BANKROLL
8:30 PM EST
Philadelphia has lost 13 of the last 16 home games against the spread and they have also lost 9 of the last 11 games against the spread coming off a home loss. Philadelphia has lost 7 of the last 8 games against the spread after gaining 300 or more passing yards in their last game and they have lost 7 of the last 9 games against the spread when playing in the 1st month of the season.
Play NC State +13.5 over Clemson (TOP NCAA PLAY)---RISK 10% OF YOUR BANKROLL
7:30 PM EST
NC State has won 13 of the last 15 home games and they have won 3 of the last 4 games coming off a bye week. NC State has won 4 of the last 5 games coming off a game where they committed four or more turnovers and they have won 14 of the last 20 games coming off a win by three points or less in their last game.
Parlay BOTH Plays (NC State +13.5 & Kansas City +3)---RISK 10% OF YOUR BANKROLL
Dave Essler Week Three NFL Thoughts
Eagles/Chiefs: Actually looking at the under as perhaps having the best value. If the Kansas City defense comes to play and the Eagles make a mistake or two, it stays under. Reason being is the last thing KC wants is a shootout, and I don't think the Eagles can stop them from controlling much of the clock.
Eagles/Chiefs: Actually looking at the under as perhaps having the best value. If the Kansas City defense comes to play and the Eagles make a mistake or two, it stays under. Reason being is the last thing KC wants is a shootout, and I don't think the Eagles can stop them from controlling much of the clock.
Inside the stats: Week 4 an ATS turning points for teams
By MARC LAWRENCE
Each week we take a look inside the numbers, from both a statistical and a pointspread aspect, on the college football and NFL cards. Here are this week’s findings.
Defend this
Alabama’s shootout win over Texas A&M last week was worth the price of admission.
It featured nearly 1,200 yards of offense, Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel in a career game, and the Tide walking away with the revenge they so dearly wanted.
The question is what does Bama do for an encore?
They have been outgained in each of their games this season and this week they welcome former offensive coordinator Jim McElwain and his Colorado State Rams to Bryant-Denny Stadium.
Safe to say McElwain will have his troops pumped to the max for his return to Tuscaloosa.
This much we know for sure. Defending national champions are just 10-15 ATS as favorites of 36 or more points against opponents with at least one win on the season. They are also 48-66-1 ATS as favorites off a win in non-conference clashes.
Expect the elephant to slumber his way to victory this Saturday.
Four on the floor
Game 4 is a critical turning point for most college football teams, especially if they’re playing off their first loss of the season.
From a handicapping perspective, the venue goes a long way in determining Game 4 ATS results as well. For instance:
• Teams playing at home in this role tend to perform poorly as evidenced by a 95-111-3 ATS overall mark since 1980. Home teams in that role this week include: Duke, Penn State, Texas A&M and Wisconsin, with Boston College and Illinois on deck next week.
If these teams are allowing more than 27 points per game on the season (Wake Forest and La-Lafayette) they dip to 8-19-2 ATS.
To top it off, if they are allowing more than 27 points per game on the season and are facing a foe that is not off a spread win of 35 or more points in its last game, these bummed-out hosts sink to 3-19-2 ATS.
Texas A&M finds itself in this “Aggie-nizing” role this week.
• Teams playing away in this role somehow find pointspread success, nearly reversing their home counterparts by going 105-81-3 ATS dating back to 1980.
This week finds Ball State, Marshall, Tennessee, Troy and Utah taking to the road after having their dreams of a perfect season ruined last week (Note: East Carolina will journey out in this role next week).
When these teams are also off an ATS loss, they improve to 93-59-1 ATS in these Game 4 situations, with all of the above teams - except East Carolina next week - in this role this week.
And if these teams off a spread loss are facing an opponent that is off a SU and ATS loss, they ratchet up to 29-11 ATS, including 17-4 ATS when they are a dog.
Tennessee finds itself “Volunteering” for this desirable role this week.
Smoke and mirrors
Once again an unusual small amount of “inside-out games” (teams who won the game but lost the stats) dot the card last week.
College football teams playing this week who won the game but lost the stats in their previous game included: Alabama, Florida Atlantic, Middle Tennessee State, Missouri, Oregon State and Rutgers.
Those who lost the game but won the stats in their last game were: Eastern Michigan, Florida, Fresno State, Marshall, Memphis, Texas A&M and Utah.
In the NFL the phony winners included: Atlanta, Kansas City, Miami and New England.
The hard-luck losers included: Dallas, Indianapolis, N.Y. Jets and St. Louis.
Note: Florida and Marshall in college football, along with the N.Y. Jets in the NFL were triple-digit yardage winners, while the Patriots were a triple-digit yardage loser.
Red rover, red rover
As we alluded to last week, with no-huddle, quicker pace, and lots more offensive snaps per game being the new wave in the NFL these days, totals were expected to reach new heights.
Not so thus far this season, as over/unders evened out at 8-8 once again last week, bringing the count to 16 Overs and 16 Unders on the season.
Interestingly, seven of the eight games that went Over involved the eight teams that had the most offensive plays in their contests, namely: Bengals (79 plays), Chargers (79), Texans (78), Panther (76), Bills (730, Rams (73), Broncos (72) and Colts (72).
Coupled with a 6-1 Over result involving the same premise in Week 1, it makes keeping an eye on this trend mandatory if you are a totals enthusiast.
Stat of the Week
The Detroit Lions are 0-16 SU all-time in games against the Redskins in Washington, by an average losing margin of 18 points per game.
By MARC LAWRENCE
Each week we take a look inside the numbers, from both a statistical and a pointspread aspect, on the college football and NFL cards. Here are this week’s findings.
Defend this
Alabama’s shootout win over Texas A&M last week was worth the price of admission.
It featured nearly 1,200 yards of offense, Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel in a career game, and the Tide walking away with the revenge they so dearly wanted.
The question is what does Bama do for an encore?
They have been outgained in each of their games this season and this week they welcome former offensive coordinator Jim McElwain and his Colorado State Rams to Bryant-Denny Stadium.
Safe to say McElwain will have his troops pumped to the max for his return to Tuscaloosa.
This much we know for sure. Defending national champions are just 10-15 ATS as favorites of 36 or more points against opponents with at least one win on the season. They are also 48-66-1 ATS as favorites off a win in non-conference clashes.
Expect the elephant to slumber his way to victory this Saturday.
Four on the floor
Game 4 is a critical turning point for most college football teams, especially if they’re playing off their first loss of the season.
From a handicapping perspective, the venue goes a long way in determining Game 4 ATS results as well. For instance:
• Teams playing at home in this role tend to perform poorly as evidenced by a 95-111-3 ATS overall mark since 1980. Home teams in that role this week include: Duke, Penn State, Texas A&M and Wisconsin, with Boston College and Illinois on deck next week.
If these teams are allowing more than 27 points per game on the season (Wake Forest and La-Lafayette) they dip to 8-19-2 ATS.
To top it off, if they are allowing more than 27 points per game on the season and are facing a foe that is not off a spread win of 35 or more points in its last game, these bummed-out hosts sink to 3-19-2 ATS.
Texas A&M finds itself in this “Aggie-nizing” role this week.
• Teams playing away in this role somehow find pointspread success, nearly reversing their home counterparts by going 105-81-3 ATS dating back to 1980.
This week finds Ball State, Marshall, Tennessee, Troy and Utah taking to the road after having their dreams of a perfect season ruined last week (Note: East Carolina will journey out in this role next week).
When these teams are also off an ATS loss, they improve to 93-59-1 ATS in these Game 4 situations, with all of the above teams - except East Carolina next week - in this role this week.
And if these teams off a spread loss are facing an opponent that is off a SU and ATS loss, they ratchet up to 29-11 ATS, including 17-4 ATS when they are a dog.
Tennessee finds itself “Volunteering” for this desirable role this week.
Smoke and mirrors
Once again an unusual small amount of “inside-out games” (teams who won the game but lost the stats) dot the card last week.
College football teams playing this week who won the game but lost the stats in their previous game included: Alabama, Florida Atlantic, Middle Tennessee State, Missouri, Oregon State and Rutgers.
Those who lost the game but won the stats in their last game were: Eastern Michigan, Florida, Fresno State, Marshall, Memphis, Texas A&M and Utah.
In the NFL the phony winners included: Atlanta, Kansas City, Miami and New England.
The hard-luck losers included: Dallas, Indianapolis, N.Y. Jets and St. Louis.
Note: Florida and Marshall in college football, along with the N.Y. Jets in the NFL were triple-digit yardage winners, while the Patriots were a triple-digit yardage loser.
Red rover, red rover
As we alluded to last week, with no-huddle, quicker pace, and lots more offensive snaps per game being the new wave in the NFL these days, totals were expected to reach new heights.
Not so thus far this season, as over/unders evened out at 8-8 once again last week, bringing the count to 16 Overs and 16 Unders on the season.
Interestingly, seven of the eight games that went Over involved the eight teams that had the most offensive plays in their contests, namely: Bengals (79 plays), Chargers (79), Texans (78), Panther (76), Bills (730, Rams (73), Broncos (72) and Colts (72).
Coupled with a 6-1 Over result involving the same premise in Week 1, it makes keeping an eye on this trend mandatory if you are a totals enthusiast.
Stat of the Week
The Detroit Lions are 0-16 SU all-time in games against the Redskins in Washington, by an average losing margin of 18 points per game.
"Mr Chalk" 2013 MLB Season
Ben lee had Np on Wednesday.
For Thirsty Thursday "Mr Chalk" likes the Pirates -$155/Padres.
"Mr Chalk" is 3-1 +$270 for the week and 98-60 +$542 for the 2013 MLB season.
With Andy Reid coming coming back to Phillie for the first time since he got the pink slip, Ben lee likes the Chiefs +3/Eagles.
Ben lee had Np on Wednesday.
For Thirsty Thursday "Mr Chalk" likes the Pirates -$155/Padres.
"Mr Chalk" is 3-1 +$270 for the week and 98-60 +$542 for the 2013 MLB season.
With Andy Reid coming coming back to Phillie for the first time since he got the pink slip, Ben lee likes the Chiefs +3/Eagles.
Run for your money: Handicapping MLB's wild-card races
With more than 150 games down and roughly 10 to go, a handful of major-league teams remain in the hunt for a wild-card berth. The American League race remains one of the most complex in recent years, while the National League playoff chase is more about positioning at this point.
Here's a look at teams from each league that remain in the running of a playoff spot (World Series odds courtesy LVH):
American League
Tampa Bay Rays (83-68, first wild-card spot)
The Rays (20/1 to win the World Series) were challenging the Boston Red Sox for the American League East title not long ago, but a 3-7 tailspin to open the month left the wild card as their only chance at playoff glory. Tampa Bay has a tough road the rest of the way, with a four-game homestand against fellow contender Baltimore leading into a season-ending six-game road trip against the New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays.
Texas Rangers (82-69, second wild-card spot)
The Rangers (20/1) have fallen apart over the past two and a half weeks, going 3-13 so far in September - a stretch that includes a seven-game losing streak during which the club was held to two runs or fewer four times. Texas has a much more manageable schedule than the Rays, visiting Kansas City for a three-game set before wrapping up the campaign with seven straight home games against woeful Houston and the underachieving Los Angeles Angels.
Cleveland Indians (82-70, half game back of Texas)
An 11-6 showing for the month has the Indians (30/1) back in the postseason conversation after being all but ruled out three weeks ago. Cleveland has gained four games on the Rangers over the past week and a half, but still has Baltimore (one game back of Texas) and the Yankees and Royals (2.5 back) to contend with. Cleveland has a powder-puff schedule, however, with a six-game homestand against the Astros and White Sox and a four-game trek to Minnesota.
National League
Pittsburgh Pirates (87-65, first wild-card spot)
Barring a collapse by the Pirates (14/1) or a miraculous run by the Washington Nationals (see below), Pittsburgh will end a two-decade playoff drought at the end of the month. But the Pirates have loftier goals, namely catching the Cardinals for top spot in the National League Central. Pittsburgh enters Friday two games off the pace, with six of its final 10 games against the team directly behind it in both the division and wild-card standings (also see below).
Cincinnati Reds (87-66, second wild-card spot)
The aforementioned Reds (16/1) continue to hang around, making the Central the only legitimate division race remaining. Cincinnati has surged into contention with an 11-6 September that includes a road sweep against lowly Houston earlier this week. In addition to having six games against Pittsburgh to close out the regular season, the Reds have the privilege of facing a New York Mets team that is playing out the string.
Washington Nationals (81-71, 5.5 games back of Cincinnati)
It will take a sensational run - and some help - for the Nationals (200/1) to return to the postseason. The division race is all but over - Atlanta has an nine-game lead with 10 to play - and unless either the Reds dominate the Pirates or vice versa, Washington won't be able to make up enough ground for a long winning streak to matter. The Nationals host Miami for four games before finishing up with three games each in Atlanta and Arizona.
With more than 150 games down and roughly 10 to go, a handful of major-league teams remain in the hunt for a wild-card berth. The American League race remains one of the most complex in recent years, while the National League playoff chase is more about positioning at this point.
Here's a look at teams from each league that remain in the running of a playoff spot (World Series odds courtesy LVH):
American League
Tampa Bay Rays (83-68, first wild-card spot)
The Rays (20/1 to win the World Series) were challenging the Boston Red Sox for the American League East title not long ago, but a 3-7 tailspin to open the month left the wild card as their only chance at playoff glory. Tampa Bay has a tough road the rest of the way, with a four-game homestand against fellow contender Baltimore leading into a season-ending six-game road trip against the New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays.
Texas Rangers (82-69, second wild-card spot)
The Rangers (20/1) have fallen apart over the past two and a half weeks, going 3-13 so far in September - a stretch that includes a seven-game losing streak during which the club was held to two runs or fewer four times. Texas has a much more manageable schedule than the Rays, visiting Kansas City for a three-game set before wrapping up the campaign with seven straight home games against woeful Houston and the underachieving Los Angeles Angels.
Cleveland Indians (82-70, half game back of Texas)
An 11-6 showing for the month has the Indians (30/1) back in the postseason conversation after being all but ruled out three weeks ago. Cleveland has gained four games on the Rangers over the past week and a half, but still has Baltimore (one game back of Texas) and the Yankees and Royals (2.5 back) to contend with. Cleveland has a powder-puff schedule, however, with a six-game homestand against the Astros and White Sox and a four-game trek to Minnesota.
National League
Pittsburgh Pirates (87-65, first wild-card spot)
Barring a collapse by the Pirates (14/1) or a miraculous run by the Washington Nationals (see below), Pittsburgh will end a two-decade playoff drought at the end of the month. But the Pirates have loftier goals, namely catching the Cardinals for top spot in the National League Central. Pittsburgh enters Friday two games off the pace, with six of its final 10 games against the team directly behind it in both the division and wild-card standings (also see below).
Cincinnati Reds (87-66, second wild-card spot)
The aforementioned Reds (16/1) continue to hang around, making the Central the only legitimate division race remaining. Cincinnati has surged into contention with an 11-6 September that includes a road sweep against lowly Houston earlier this week. In addition to having six games against Pittsburgh to close out the regular season, the Reds have the privilege of facing a New York Mets team that is playing out the string.
Washington Nationals (81-71, 5.5 games back of Cincinnati)
It will take a sensational run - and some help - for the Nationals (200/1) to return to the postseason. The division race is all but over - Atlanta has an nine-game lead with 10 to play - and unless either the Reds dominate the Pirates or vice versa, Washington won't be able to make up enough ground for a long winning streak to matter. The Nationals host Miami for four games before finishing up with three games each in Atlanta and Arizona.
