Service Plays Thursday 9/19/13

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Thursday Night Football betting: Chiefs at Eagles

Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 50.5)

Andy Reid returns to the city where he thrived - and eventually nosedived - when he guides the Kansas City Chiefs into a Thursday night matchup with the host Philadelphia Eagles. Reid enjoyed a spectacular run during his 14-year tenure with the Eagles, bringing the team to five conference championship games and one Super Bowl appearance. Philadelphia flamed out in Reid's final two seasons, leading to his dismissal and the offseason hiring of Oregon coach Chip Kelly.

Reid has the Chiefs off to a surprising 2-0 start to match their win total from last season that locked up the No. 1 overall pick for Kansas City in the NFL Draft. Kelly, whose fast-break offense is the talk of the league after Philadelphia rolled up 63 points in splitting its first two games, said he is not concerned about the emotional impact of Reid's homecoming. “I think they’re locked in,” Kelly said. “We met and we talked about the Kansas City Chiefs, so that’s not a concern."

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE: Eagles opened -3 and went as high as -3.5 before coming back down to a field goal. The total opened 49.5 and has been bet up to 50.5 points.

WEATHER: clear skies and temperatures in the mid 60s. Winds blowing SSW at 6 mph.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Chiefs (0.0) + Eagles (+1.0) + Home field (-3.0) = Eagles -2

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (2-0, 1-1 ATS): Reid was castigated during his time in Philly for a tendency to abandon the running game so quickly, and Jamaal Charles - a 1,500-yard rusher last season - is averaging 66 yards on 16 carries in each of the first two games. Charles does have 11 catches in the West Coast offense run by quarterback Alex Smith, who has been quietly efficient with four touchdowns and zero turnovers - a welcome change for a team that tied the Eagles and New York Jets for the most giveaways with 37 in 2012. Kansas City's defense has been integral to the early success, allowing 18 points and only one touchdown.

ABOUT THE EAGLES (1-1, 1-1 ATS): Kelly's rapid-fire offense has been a boon for quarterback Michael Vick, who is enjoying a renaissance after throwing for a career-high 428 yards in Sunday's 33-30 loss to San Diego. Wideout DeSean Jackson, a malcontent for most of the previous two seasons, tops the league with 297 yards receiving while running back LeSean McCoy has piled up an NFL-high 237 yards rushing. Philadelphia's defense could not slow Washington in the second half of the season opener and was carved up by San Diego's Philip Rivers in a loss that was compounded by Kelly's clock mismanagement in the final minutes.

TRENDS:

* Chiefs are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games in Week 3.
* Eagles are 6-20-1 ATS in their last 27 home games.
* Under is 4-0-1 in Chiefs last five road games.
* Over is 5-0 in Eagles last five games overall.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Chiefs and Eagles were each a league-worst minus-24 in turnover differential last season.

2. Vick is tied with Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers for the most yards (10.3) per passing attempt.

3. The Eagles have won the last three matchups, including a 34-14 home win in September 2009.
 
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The TOUR Championship: Golf betting preview and picks
By MATT FARGO

After nine months and 39 events, we have reached the final stop on tour with The TOUR Championship.

This week will decide the FedEx Cup Champion and the $10 million bonus that comes with it. A win by any of the players currently ranked in the Top 5 are guaranteed the FedEx Championship while players outside the Top 5 can still get it with a win and some help, but the chances are slim.

The TOUR Championship takes place at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta for the 13th time including the last 10. At 7,319 yards, East Lake is the second-longest Par 70 the touring pros see all year but bombing the ball won't necessarily get it done. Accuracy off the tee is a must as is putting. New greens were put in after the first year East Lake hosted the final stage of the FedEx Cup Playoffs and are significantly tougher.

This is a course where each hole needs to be thought out and played backwards in order to get the best shots into the green. That makes greens in regulation very important to set up birdie opportunities from the best situations. However, as mentioned, it is the putting that will trump that as Bill Haas, Tiger Woods and Vijay Singh - three of the past five champions at East Lake - led the field in putting.

The Top 5 this week consists of Woods, Henrik Stenson, Adam Scott, Zach Johnson and Matt Kuchar. A win by any of these players, no matter where the others finish, means a big payday of $10 million. The other 25 players in the field all can win but everything has to fall exactly into place for the majority of those so the winner likely will come from a player currently ranked in or close to the Top 10.

Woods (+450) is the big favorite this week and it’s hard to look past him. He is coming off a T11 at the BMW Championship last week, which pushed him back into the top spot in the FedEx Cup Standings. His recent history at the TOUR Championship shows he loves it at East Lake as he has finished T8, solo second, first, solo second and solo second in his last five starts here.

We used Hunter Mahan (+1,500) last week and he finished T4 as a second-round 73 did him in. As mentioned, he’s the only guy to play in every playoff event since its inception and has done well in Atlanta in the past. He finished T8 last year, following a runner up in 2011. He’s currently 15th in the FedEx Cup Standings, so he will need help to win it all but comes here in great form.

Jason Day (+1,800) has been on our list many times and, while he has not won, he has performed well for those doing place betting, including a T4 last week at the BMW Championship. Like Mahan, he will need help since he is sitting in 14th place in the FedEx Cup Standings. He didn't play here last year, but he finished T6 in 2011, just two shots out of the playoff.

Webb Simpson (+2,500) is 21st in the FedEx Cup Standings, so he is going to need a miracle for the $10 Million. But that doesn't mean he can't win here. He’s fallen off slightly the last two events after posting Top 15s in three of his previous four starts. He hasn’t won this year, but does have four Top 10s. Last year at East Lake, he posted a Sunday 66 to grab a share of fifth place.

You can't get better odds than with Graham DeLaet (+4,000) in comparison to his rank (seventh in the FedEx Cup Standings), so we will back the Canadian once again. He opened the playoffs with a T2 at the Barclays and a solo third at the Deutsche Bank Championship before stumbling with a T28 at Conway Farms last week. Still, a win here in his first start at East Lake could give him the overall championship.

Recommended tournament win five pack at the TOUR Championship – all for 1 unit

Tiger Woods (+450)
Hunter Mahan (+1,500)
Jason Day (+1,800)
Webb Simpson (+2,500)
Graham DeLaet (+4,000)

2012 Record to date after 36 events: +51.6 Units
2013 Record to date after 34 events: -55.4 Units
 
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Thursday's MLB American League betting cheat sheet

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on Thursday's American League games:

Seattle Mariners at Detroit Tigers (-185, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Tigers right-hander Doug Fister is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA in 14 innings against the Mariners, who drafted him in the seventh round in 2006.

Cold batting stat: Members of the Seattle roster are hitting a collective .229 in 48 at-bats against Fister.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with a 30 percent chance of showers or thunderstorms. Wind will blow in from right field at 9 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 11-1 in Fister's previous 12 starts against teams with losing records.

Houston Astros at Cleveland Indians (-215, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Indians right-hander Ubaldo Jimenez is 5-5 with a 1.83 ERA and 71 strikeouts in 10 second-half starts.

Cold batting stat: Cleveland OF Michael Bourn is hitting just .138 with eight strikeouts in 38 career at-bats against the Astros.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-70s with a 45 percent chance of showers. Wind will blow out to left-center field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: Houston is 1-10 in starter Dallas Keuchel's last 11 outings on five days' rest.

New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays (+108, 8.5)

Cold pitching stat: Yankees right-hander Hiroki Kuroda struggled in his previous start against Toronto, surrendering seven runs - five earned - on nine hits over five innings of a 7-2 defeat.

Hot batting stat: Blue Jays C J.P. Arencibia is 9-for-21 with a homer against Kuroda.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow out to center field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: New York has lost eight of Kuroda's last 10 starts against American League East opponents.

Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox (-130, 8.5)

Hot pitching stat: Orioles right-hander Chris Tillman has dominated the Red Sox in his career, going 4-1 with a 2.15 ERA in nine starts.

Hot batting stat: Baltimore slugger Chris Davis is 11-for-26 with a pair of homers and six RBIs against Boston starter John Lackey.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-60s with sunny skies. Wind will blow out to center field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 21-5-1 in Lackey's last 27 starts.

Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays (-114, 7)

Hot pitching stat: Rays left-hander Matt Moore is 7-0 with a 1.90 ERA in his last 10 starts.

Cold batting stat: The Tampa Bay roster is batting just .143 with one RBI in 56 at-bats against Texas righty Yu Darvish.

Weather: Dome.

Key betting note: Texas has lost Darvish's last six starts.

Minnesota Twins at Oakland Athletics (-215, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Athletics right-hander Dan Straily has won four straight starts while allowing just five runs over 23 2/3 innings in that span.

Hot batting stat: Oakland OF Yoenis Cespedes went 5-for-11 with six RBIs in a three-game series against Minnesota earlier this month.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with sunny skies. Wind will blow out to right field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: The over is 6-2-1 in the last nine meetings in Oakland.

**Odds, stats, weather forecast and probable pitchers as of 3:55 p.m. ET Wednesday.
 
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Thursday's MLB National League betting cheat sheet

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes for Thursday's National League games:

San Diego Padres at Pittsburgh Pirates (-145, 7)

Hot pitching stat: Pirates right-hander Gerrit Cole has won back-to-back starts against Texas and the Chicago Cubs, surrendering just one run on eight hits in 14 innings over that stretch.

Cold batting stat: Pittsburgh SS Clint Barmes and 3B Pedro Alvarez are a combined 2-for-26 against Padres starter Ian Kennedy.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with cloudy skies. Wind will blow from right to left field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: Pittsburgh is 8-2 in the finale of its last 10 four-game series.

San Francisco Giants at New York Mets (+130, 7)

Cold pitching stat: Mets left-hander Jonathon Niese is 3-5 with a 4.48 ERA in 11 afternoon starts this season.

Cold batting stat: New York OF Eric Young, Jr. has just three hits with six strikeouts in 21 at-bats against Giants starter Madison Bumgarner.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-70s with clear skies. Wind will blow out to right field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: The Mets have lost 11 of their last 12 games against left-handed starters.

Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers (-157, 8)

Cold pitching stat: Cubs right-hander Jake Arrieta was roughed up in his last outing against Milwaukee, allowing four runs over five innings of a 5-3 loss.

Hot batting stat: Chicago OF Junior Lake is 3-for-6 with a homer and four RBIs against Brewers starter Kyle Lohse.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with a 50 percent chance of showers or thunderstorms. Wind will blow from right to left field at 10 mph.

Key betting note: Milwaukee is 9-2 in Lohse's last 11 home starts.

St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies (+155, 10)

Cold pitching stat: Rockies right-hander Roy Oswalt has lost all six of his starts in 2013 while allowing opponents to hit .360.

Hot batting stat: Cardinals OF Carlos Beltran is 11-for-31 with a homer and eight RBIs in his career against Oswalt.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow in from right field at 4 mph.

Key betting note: The over is 6-0 in umpire Victor Carapazza's last six games behind home plate.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks (-105, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Dodgers right-hander Ricky Nolasco is 8-2 with a 2.63 ERA in 13 starts since joining the club in a trade with Miami.

Hot batting stat: Los Angeles 2B Mark Ellis is 10-for-20 with four solo home runs lifetime against Diamondbacks righty Wade Miley.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-90s with clear skies. Wind will blow from left to right field at 4 mph.

Key betting note: Arizona is 6-0 in Miley's last six starts against teams with winning records.

Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals (-250, 7)

Hot pitching stat: Nationals right-hander Stephen Strasburg has limited opposing hitters to a .181 average in 10 second-half starts.

Hot batting stat: Washington 3B Ryan Zimmerman has hit 10 home runs in a month for just the second time in his career.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-60s with sunny skies. Wind will blow out to left field at 5 mph.

Key betting note: The over is 4-0-1 in the last five meetings.

**Odds, stats, weather forecast and probable pitchers as of 4:30 p.m. ET Wednesday.
 
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Andy Reid brings 2-0 Chiefs to Philly on Thursday
by Brian Graham

Kickoff: Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET
Line: Philadelphia -3, Total: 50

Former Eagles head coach Andy Reid brings his current unbeaten Chiefs team to Philadelphia for a Thursday night showdown.

Kansas City has already matched its win output from last year, holding opponents to 9.0 PPG and 248 total YPG. But Chip Kelly’s high-powered Eagles have 31.5 PPG and 477 total YPG this season thanks in large part to RB LeSean McCoy’s 356 total yards. Kansas City hasn’t beaten Philly since 1998, losing by a combined 94-55 score during three straight series defeats. However, Chiefs QB Alex Smith picked the Eagles apart when he last faced them two years ago, throwing for 291 yards (8.8 YPA), 2 TD and 0 INT. Despite the 2-0 start to the season, Kansas City has not been a good wager after a win streak, going 18-32 ATS (36%) following 2+ straight wins since 1992. However, bettors should also consider that Philly is 0-8 ATS at home in the past two seasons and 0-7 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over this same timeframe. In terms of Andy Reid, he has thrived in the underdog role in all his years in Philadelphia, producing a 40-22 ATS mark (65%) when getting points as an NFL head coach.

The Chiefs have shown a very balanced offense under Reid with 117 rushing YPG and 185 passing YPG. QB Alex Smith has not thrown the ball very far down the field though, averaging just 5.7 yards per pass attempt in this conservative West Coast offense that has yet to turn the ball over. On Thursday, Kansas City will try to slow down the Eagles with a run-heavy attack anchored by RB Jamaal Charles. He hasn't found a whole lot of running room this season, evidenced by a 4.1 YPC average that is far below his 5.7 YPC in his career. But Charles still has 132 rushing yards and leads the team in both receptions (11) and targets (16). The Chiefs' top wideout has been WR Dwayne Bowe who has eight catches for 86 yards and a touchdown so far. Kansas City leads the NFL in red-zone efficiency, but has not thrived on third downs, converting just 32% of those chances into first downs. The defense has been outstanding in both of these categories though with a 33% red-zone efficiency (T-2nd in NFL) while allowing opponents to convert a mere 27% of third-down plays. The Chiefs have held opponents to an average of 248 total yards (4.0 per play), including 54 rushing YPG (2.8 per carry), but slowing down Philadelphia will be a much greater challenge.

The Eagles have adopted a break-neck speed of play, snapping off 67.5 plays per game despite a subpar 26:11 time of possession. They average 7.1 yards per play (2nd in NFL), which includes an NFL-leading 9.7 YPA through the air and strong 5.1 YPC on the ground. RB LeSean McCoy has been the workhorse of this offense with 42 rushes for a league-best 237 yards, while producing an impressive average of 19.8 yards per catch on his six receptions. QB Michael Vick has also been a nice fit for this Chip Kelly offense, completing 62% of his throws for 631 yards (NFL-best 10.3 YPA), 4 TD and 0 INT. His No. 1 target is WR DeSean Jackson who has been thrown to 14 more times than any of his teammates, resulting in 16 catches for 297 yards (18.6 yards per reception) and two touchdowns. The Eagles defense has not been nearly as efficient though, surrendering 30.0 PPG and 460 total YPG. This including 360 passing YPG allowed, while giving up the most first downs in the league (29 per game). Not having CB Bradley Fletcher (concussion) will certainly not help the cause for improvement.
 
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Tale of the Tape Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles

Two new head coaches prowl the sidelines on Thursday Night Football, with former Eagles coach Andy Reid returning to Philadelphia to match wits with Chip Kelly and his revamped offense. Oddsmakers have set the Eagles as 3-point home favorites.

We break down this Week 3 matchup with our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

Kelly’s high-octane offense has been as good as advertised, averaging 477 yards and 31.5 points through the first two weeks of the season. Philadelphia is running an average of 68 plays per game for 7.0 yards per snap, the majority of those coming on the ground. The Eagles have utilized dual-threat QB Mike Vick and RB LeSean McCoy, turning to the rush attack an average of 34.5 times for 176 yards per game. Speedster WR DeSean Jackson is also benefiting from Kelly’s offense, totaling 297 yards and two touchdowns through the air.

Kansas City is on the opposite end of that scale, running an average of 63.5 plays per game and not exploding for big gains, topping out at 4.8 yards per play. That could be to the Chiefs' advantage if they want to put the breaks on the Eagles Thursday. RB Jamaal Charles and QB Alex Smith have done damage on the ground, helping K.C. rank eighth in rushing yards per game (117.5). That West Coast offense has limited the passing game somewhat, with the Chiefs putting up an average of only 185 yards through the air and picking up 5.3 yards per pass attempt.

Edge: Philadelphia

Defense

Philadelphia is among the bottom of the league in most defensive categories through the first two weeks. The Eagles are allowing an average of 30 points on 460.5 yards per game, including 33 points and 413 passing yards in the loss to San Diego in Week 2. They aren’t getting pressure on the opposing passers, with just two sacks on the season. Philadelphia is thin in the secondary with CB Brandon Hughes injuring his hamstring last week.

Kansas City’s stop unit looks like it could be one of the best in the league this season. The Chiefs shutdown the Cowboys' passing game in the second half in Week 2 and only gave up six points in the final two quarters. Kansas City has locked the door on third downs as well, allowing foes to move the chains on third down just 26.67 percent of time. However, half of these defensive numbers have come versus Jacksonville and must be taken with a grain of salt.

Edge: Kansas City

Special teams

Philadelphia is averaging 22.3 yards per kickoff return but is only forcing opponents to punt two times per game though the first two weeks, and hasn’t had a chance to return those punts. On the other side, the Eagles are giving up 21.3 yards per kickoff and only 4.8 yards per punt. Kicker Alex Henery is 4-for-5 on FG attempts, going 2-for-3 from 40-49 yards.

Kansas City has attempted only two kickoff returns thanks to the new rules and is averaging 12.5 yards per return. On punts, the Chiefs are picking up a respectable 12.1 yards on returns. The special teams defense is struggling to lock up returners, allowing 27.7 yards per kickoff return and 11.0 yards per punt return. They also had a punt blocked for a safety in Week 1. Kicker Ryan Succop has only been called upon twice this season but is 1-for-2 on FG attempts, with a blocked 50-yarder versus Dallas last weekend.

Edge: Philadelphia

Notable quotables

"It means a lot, so I hope we go out there and play for our coach. You know what I'm saying? I know he has a lot of love for his Eagles, he worked there a lot of years and he probably wishes he was still coaching there." – Kansas City RB Jamaal Charles.

"Andy was here for a long time with those guys, so if you know what they’re good at (you have an advantage), but he doesn’t know our scheme and how we deploy those guys. He may have some little ins and outs. There’s a familiarity, obviously he’s familiar with Trent (Cole), he’s familiar with DeMeco (Ryans) and those guys, but the scheme defensively has changed, the scheme offensively has changed and the scheme on special teams has changed. … From a physical standpoint he’s probably got a real intimate knowledge of this team." – Philadelphia head coach Chip Kelly.
 
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Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the A’s on Wednesday and likes the Pirates on Thursday.

The deficit is 1518 sirignanos.
 
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Stephen Nover | NFL Side - Thursday, Sep 19 2013 8:25PM
302 PHI -3.0(-125) SportsInterAction vs 301 KAN triple-dime bet

Analysis:
As expected, the Chiefs are much improved under Andy Reid. But this a terrible situational spot for them traveling on a very short week following a big home win against Dallas.

What makes it worse is tangling against the Eagles and their new look fast-break offense.

The Eagles' offense hasn't been slowed this season. The Eagles rank second in yardage at 477 per game and third in points at 31.5 per contest. Michael Vick, LeSean McCoy and DeSean Jackson are all healthy agai ƒn and having major seasons.

A lot is going to be made of Andy Reid returning to Philadelphia. That's another distraction for Reid and the Chiefs to deal with. The Eagles are going to be steaming mad after losing at home at the end to San Diego.

Alex Smith isn't nearly a good enough passer to trade points with such a high-powered opponent. The Eagles have a weak secondary, but Smith is a dink and dunker who is unable to take full advantage.

The Chiefs rely heavily on Jamaal Charles and he isn't 100 percent.
 

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Betting Line Moves

Florida Atlantic +4
 

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SDL SPORTS PICKS

early picks

5* Pirates
3* Brewers

their on the pirates again :think2: 0-3 yesterday 5-6 since tracking
 

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Chicago Syndicate Top Plays Full Card

Top NFL Play - Philadelphia Eagles -3
CFB - Passing

MLB
NL Total of the Month - Cardinals/Rockies Over 10

Other MLB Plays
Pirates -159
Yankees -122
Rangers +100
 

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LA Syndicate Top Plays Full Card

NFL - Pass

CFB - Clemson/NC State Under 66.5

MLB
Rockies/Cardinals Over 10
Dodgers +100
A's/Twins Over 7.5
 

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Thursday, 9/19/2013-CFB

#303 Clemson(-13.5) over NC State

Clemson has come out firing this season. They started with a great win over Georgia, where Tahj Boyd and the Clemson offense showed they still have a lot of fire power. Tahj Boyd has already thrown 439 yards for 3 TDS and has also ran for two. He has been supported by RB McDowell who is averaging 5.8 yards per rush. Sammy Watkins has picked up right where he left off last year, catching 9 passes for 146 yards. Clemson is averaging 37.7 points a game, which is to be expected. Their defense has been the surprise this year, making much improvement over last year.

NC State started off the season with an easy win over Louisiana Tech, but struggled in their next against a mediocre Richmond team. QB Thomas threw 2 interceptions and didn't seem to really be in rhythm. The defense gave up 322 yards, 300 of them passing. NC State is going to have trouble keeping up with Clemson on both sides of the field. NC State has a weak running game, and the Clemson defense should get a few sacks in this one as the Wolfpack only have one offensive option. The Clemson offense should run through the Wolfpack defense quite easily, as the running and passing threat will both be prevalently.

Projected Score: Clemson 41 North Carolina State 14
 

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[h=1]Today's NFL Picks[/h][h=2]Kansas City at Philadelphia[/h]The Chiefs look to take advantage of a Philadelphia team that is 0-6-1 ATS in its last 7 games against a team with a winning record. Kansas City is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+3). Here are all of this week's picks.
THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 19
Time Posted: 7:00 p.m. EST (9/18)
Game 301-302: Kansas City at Philadelphia (8:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 130.509; Philadelphia 130.236
Dunkel Line: Even; 55
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 3; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+3); Over
 

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Baseball Crusher
New York Yankees -122 over Toronto Blue Jays
(System Record: 79-7, lost last game)
Overall Record: 79-88-2
 

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Football Crusher
Kansas City Chiefs + Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 51
(System Record: 15-0, lost last game)
Overall Record: 15-9
 

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