WUNDERDOG
1 OF 6
Game: B Y U vs. Florida (7:25 PM Eastern)
Pick: B Y U +3 (-110)
It seems like every year there are a couple powerhouse teams that fly into the Sweet 16 under the radar, mix it up with power conference teams and more than hold their own. This may be a record season as five teams outside of the top six power conferences will do battle. One of those teams is BYU, who arguably has the highest impact player in the tournament in Jimmer Fredette. While Kemba Walker has carried the young UConn Huskies, Fredette has done even more for BYU and with a close game expected, having him in your camp to knock down some big shots late is the place to be. It has been a good season for the Gators and they have handled a couple soft touches to get here, but they will be severely challenged in this one. BYU lost just four games all year, two of which were to New Mexico, who apparently has their number.
This is a live dog with a fearless scorer down the stretch.
Play BYU and the points.
1 OF 6
Game: B Y U vs. Florida (7:25 PM Eastern)
Pick: B Y U +3 (-110)
It seems like every year there are a couple powerhouse teams that fly into the Sweet 16 under the radar, mix it up with power conference teams and more than hold their own. This may be a record season as five teams outside of the top six power conferences will do battle. One of those teams is BYU, who arguably has the highest impact player in the tournament in Jimmer Fredette. While Kemba Walker has carried the young UConn Huskies, Fredette has done even more for BYU and with a close game expected, having him in your camp to knock down some big shots late is the place to be. It has been a good season for the Gators and they have handled a couple soft touches to get here, but they will be severely challenged in this one. BYU lost just four games all year, two of which were to New Mexico, who apparently has their number.
This is a live dog with a fearless scorer down the stretch.
Play BYU and the points.
Ohio's SBP (Sports Betting Prodigy)
Sweet 16
Duke -9
Wisconsin -5
The Public Is On The Other Side Of Both These Teams.. Duke Is Coming Off A Close Win Against Michigan... And Wisconsin's Opponent .. Butler.. Is Coming Off A Huge Upset Of No.1 Pitt.... Putting Us In The Prime Position To Get The Value... Wisconsin Should Be Closer To 10 Point Favorites..And Duke Could Be Up To 11 or 12 ... Evenso... Expect The Blue Devils And Badgers To Dance Into The Elite 8 ..And Both Teams Should Cover Tonight...
Sweet 16
Duke -9
Wisconsin -5
The Public Is On The Other Side Of Both These Teams.. Duke Is Coming Off A Close Win Against Michigan... And Wisconsin's Opponent .. Butler.. Is Coming Off A Huge Upset Of No.1 Pitt.... Putting Us In The Prime Position To Get The Value... Wisconsin Should Be Closer To 10 Point Favorites..And Duke Could Be Up To 11 or 12 ... Evenso... Expect The Blue Devils And Badgers To Dance Into The Elite 8 ..And Both Teams Should Cover Tonight...
Gold Sheet
NBA
DALLAS 102 - Minnesota 93—There’s probably little question who will win
this one, as Dallas has beaten Minny 17 of the last 18 meetings straight-up,
sporting a 9-1 mark in “Big D” against the Timberwolves. Minnesota’s 7-1
pointspread mark last 8 in Dallas since Kevin Garnett left for Boston is much
more pertinent to this discussion. However, with key T-wolf F Kevin Love
questionable with a groin injury suffered against Sacto on Sunday and Michael
Beasley (19 ppg, 5.5 rpg) still playing through a sore hip (only 15 minutes vs.
Kings), it’s difficult to get too enthusiastic about backing Minny. Dallas has some
injury problems of its own, as F Shawn Marion (12 ppg, 7 rpg; wrist) missed
Sunday’s game against the Warriors, although he felt he’d be ready for this
game. Mavs have turned things around as a big home favorite, covering 6 of last
8 chances laying 9 points or more at American Airlines Arena, but fact is Rick
Carlisle’s crew is just 5-5 SU in last 10, and they could be laying a mountain of
points in this one. 10-DAL -10 100-86 (204), Dal -6' 108-105 (210); 09-Dal -10'
89-77 (198), Min +10 117-108 (206), DAL -13 112-109 (201), Dal -6' 125-112
(207)
UTAH 99 - New Orleans 92—The home team won and covered first two
meetings between these two this season, with the wins coming by 18 and 29
points. Both of those games were played before Utah lost HC Jerry Sloan and PG
Deron Williams, who led the Jazz in scoring in the series. New Orleans PG Chris
Paul likely to be in a surly mood after being held without a basket in home loss to
Boston on Saturday night, and his matchup against present Utah PG Devin
Harris will be key. Harris is shooting just 39.5% in March, but he did a decent job
against Paul when New Orleans played New Jersey this season. Perhaps more
importantly for the Jazz, however, is the fact that F Paul Millsap (17 ppg, 8 rpg)
returned to action in grand fashion on Sunday, scoring 35 pts. and pulling down
10 boards against Houston. Jazz have covered 3 straight, the first such streak
since late November, and they’ve won 3 in a row at EnergySolutions Arena,
where they’ve also won and covered 6 of the last 7 against the Hornets. Dueling
"totals" notes; Utah “over” in 5 straight and 7 of last 8, while New Orleans “under”
10-3 since the All-Star break, and the series has gone “under” 8-1 last 9 in Salt
Lake City. 10-UTAH -4 105-87 (193), NO +1 100-71 (192); 09-No +8 91-87
(197), Utah -4 98-90 (202), UTAH -9' 106-86 (211), Utah -7' 114-103 (210)
CBB
★★★Florida 81 - Byu 73—BYU is thrilled to make it the Sweet 16 for the
first time since 1981, when Danny Ainge was the ringleader of the Cougs. And,
though BYU played a nearly flawless game in its resounding 89-67 bashing vs.
previously-hot Gonzaga last Saturday, we firmly believe BYU will be heading
back to Provo after this rematch vs. a veteran Florida contingent without a real
weakness, now that its foul shooting (26 of 34 FTs in its first two games) seems
to be no longer an Achilles Heel. Of course, the Gators are ecstatic to have
another crack at the Cougs after being knocked out of the NCAAs LY by BYU in
a stinging 99-92 double-OT loss in the first round at Oklahoma City. In that
barnburner, the Cougs’ ultra-explosive G Jimmer Fredette (29 ppg) poured in
37, ending Florida’s 12-game winning streak in the Big Dance.
With Fredette getting the lion’s share of media attention this week, look for
the Gators’ complementary duo of 6-2 soph G Kenny Boynton (14 ppg; ankle
tweak vs. UCLA not considered serious) and speedy, clutch, 5-8 jr. PG Erving
Walker (20 ppg in first two rounds) to shine, with the latter out-quicking the
Cougs’ 6-3 sr. Jackson Emery. Plus, Walker is itching to atone for LY’s
performance, when he converted just 4 of 16 from the field (3 of 13 from the arc),
while committing 7 TOs. Must admit that BYU has somewhat adjusted to the
loss of top post performer 6-9 soph Brandon Davies (dismissed from team), with
more assertive interior defense recently from 6-10 C James Anderson and with
bench help from 6-8 soph F Stephen Rogers & 6-6 sr. Logan Magnusson in the
first two rounds. But believe Davies’ absence will be fully exposed vs. the most
imposing group of “bigs” BYU has faced during the 7-game stretch its PF has
been out. Not only will UF’s big, tough, seasoned trio of 6-10 sr. F Vernon
Macklin, 6-8 sr. Alex Tyus, and 6-9 sr. F Chandler Parsons (SEC Player of the
Year) be problematic, but NBA prospect, 6-8 frosh F/C Patric Young & emerging
6-10 soph C Erick Murphy have been providing solid work off the bench
(combining for 28 pts. & 13 rebs. first two rounds).
Hence, Florida will be able to attack inside first with its motion, pick-and-roll
offense, opening the perimeter game for the Gator marksmen. And believe
UF’s highly-successful mentor Billy Donovan (24-8 SU mark in the Big Dance),
who has done a masterful job mixing man-to-man (Boynton says he is eager for
the challenging assignment vs. Fredette) and zone down the stretch, has a shot
at slowing down the seemingly-unstoppable Cougar marksman. So, in an opencourt,
free-flowing game in which deeper and more-athletic Florida thrives, must
lay small number with the revenge-minded, better-balanced Gators (4 starters
in DDs), who have notched 26 of their 28 victories TY by 3 points or more.
Butler 65 - Wisconsin 63—UW is making its third trip to the Sweet 16
under respected 10th-year mentor Bo Ryan, but this is the first time since 2007-
08, following Wisconsin’s hard-earned 70-65 victory vs. Kansas State last
Saturday in Tucson. It must be duly noted the Badgers are on pace to break the
Division I records for fewest turnovers per game (7.39) and free throw
percentage (.822). Yes, highly-disciplined, defensively-stingy Wisconsin (59
ppg)—paced by consummate PG Jordan Taylor (20 ppg; leads nation in assistto-
TO ratio) and invaluable 6-10 sr. C Jon Leuer (18 ppg, 7 rpg)—has few empty
possessions and won’t beat itself.
But it’s the same recipe for Butler. That is why we strongly suggest taking
a couple (bonus) hoops with the sizzling Bulldogs (on an 11-game win streak)
under the astute guidance of HC Brad Stevens (14-2 SU in March), who lives by
the mantra “The game honors toughness.” The defensively-sticky Bulldogs (32-
1 SU mark last 2 campaigns when limiting foes to fewer than 60 pts.) clearly
demonstrated their toughness in spades with their last-second victories vs.
defensively-fierce Old Dominion and Southeast No. 1 seed Pittsburgh (with 20
ties and 28 lead changes in that game!), who were the top two rebounding
teams in the nation!
Look for the Badgers to have some trouble smoothly executing their fabled
swing offense, since Butler’s pesky defensive stopper, G Ronald Nored (twice
Horizon League all-defensive team)—who limited Panther top scorer Ashton
Gibbs to 11 points—will do an effective job hounding Wiscy orchestrator Taylor
by denying him the ball. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs’ relentless and heroic 6-8 sr.
F Matt Howard (18 ppg, 7 rpg) & coming 6-11 soph C Andrew Smith should be
able to neutralize UW’s premier “big” Leuer & the dangerous 6-8 F Keaton
Nankivil (46% from arc). Sure, Wiscy has been getting solid help from key
reserve, 6-6 wild-haired soph F Mike Bruesewitz (19 pts. in first two games), but
Butler also got a nice spark off the bench from 6-8 frosh Kyhle Marshall (6 pts,
6 rebs. in 17 mins.) vs. Pitt.
In what figures to be a grinding battle probably decided in the final minutes,
have the most faith in fearless 6-3 jr. G Shelvin Mack (18 ppg during 11-game
win skein), who has scored in DDs in all nine of his NCAA contests, including his
brilliant 30-pt. explosion on Saturday. Plus, good-shooting Butler (nearly 8 treys
pg at 37% during its streak)—which nailed 12 triples vs. Pitt (the most the
Panthers had allowed since their season opener!)—should find openings vs.
the Badgers’ permissive perimeter D (Big Ten worst 37% from the arc). So,
expect the underdog-thriving “Cardiac Kids” of Butler (4 straight wins in that role
in the last two NCAAs, also 4 straight 2-point or less Big Dance deicisons!) to
advance vs. a Wiscy squad knocked out as a similarly-priced favorite vs.
Stephen Curry's Davidson back in 2007-08.
SAN DIEGO STATE 63 - Connecticut 59—If we were making a
recommendation on this game based solely on which squad looked better in the
sub-regionals, it would be a no-brainer. In fact, you could argue that sizzling
Connecticut is as hot as any team left in the field. The Huskies are 7-0 both
straight-up & vs. the spread in the postseason so far, following their fivevictories-
in-five-days march to the Big East tourney title with a brutal beatdown
of a capable Bucknell last Thursday. And UConn passed a much tougher test
a couple of days later when it conquered familiar foe Cincinnati in a workmanlike
double-digit win. Sometimes it’s easy to get bogged down in the minutiae of a
matchup while ignoring the simpler, more obvious aspects. With that in mind,
the Huskies are worthy of consideration on momentum alone.
Oh yeah, and then there’s Kemba Walker. The überconfident UConn guard
is quite simply one of the best individual players in the nation, and he’s certainly
the most dynamic offensive threat in this clash. If Walker (26 ppg in the last 8;
16 points in the final 10 minutes against the Bearcats) has the ball in his hands
with a shot to win the game, we like the Huskies’ chances.
That’s not to say there isn’t a stronger argument to be made for San Diego
State. Sure, the Aztecs had considerably more trouble getting here, taking
nearly the full 40 minutes to bludgeon outmanned Northern Colorado into
submission in their first game, then needing an extra 10 minutes to subdue
plucky Temple in last Saturday’s double-overtime win at Tucson. But, speaking
of keeping it simple, those were State’s 33rd and 34th straight-up victories of the
season vs. only two losses (“Jimmered” by BYU in both), so you can’t say Steve
Fisher’s crew doesn’t know a thing or two about closing out games. And, after
the Aztecs improbably ended up covering a substantial six-point spot in their 71-
64 over the Owls, we can’t help but wonder if the pointspread gods might just be
on the side of San Diego State (22-12 vs. the line on the season).
More importantly, the Aztecs will be supported by a highly-partisan crowd,
with thousands of their fans expected to make the short 95-mile drive up the I-
5 to Orange County’s Honda Center. And the fundamental aspects of this
matchup don’t look that bad for State, either. The Aztecs do an excellent job of
guarding closely without fouling, holding UNC & Temple to 36% FGs and only
19 total FT attempts. And they have some intriguing options to throw at Walker
on the stop end, including long-armed 6-8 sr. F Billy White. Ultimately, we just
think that over the course of 40-minute (or more) battle, it’s likely that all-for-one
San Diego State (five starters contributed between 9 and 16 points against
Temple) will be able to grind out enough scoring possessions to eventually
outdistance the more one-for-all Connecticut.
Duke 83 - Arizona 69—A quick review of these two NCAA tourney regulars’
recent Big Dance history seems in order. In the 11 seasons from 2000-10,
Krzyzewski’s Dookies made nine trips to the Sweet 16. While the Blue Devils
did go all the way twice (including last year), they were also ousted in this round
six times during that span. And Duke has just three pointspread victories in
those last nine Sweet 16 games (Devils were favored in all but one).
While Arizona whiffed on a Big Dance bid last year for the first time since
1984, the Wildcats have also made some deep NCAA tourney forays recently.
Since 2000, U of A has made it past the Sweet 16 three times, including an 82-
72 loss to Duke in the 2001 championship game. Sure, head coach Sean Miller
is in only his second season at the Wildcat helm. But the crafty former Xavier
mentor has his own history of success in the Big Dance, leading the Musketeers
all the way to Elite Eight in 2008, then back to the Sweet 16 in his final season
before bolting for Tucson. And Miller was a sterling 8-1-1 vs. the spread in his
10 total NCAA tourney games with the X-men.
As to the matchup at hand, we don’t want to read too much into the Blue
Devils’ close call against Michigan last Sunday. Instead, the Wolverines
deserve credit for having a smart gameplan and the moxie to battle back from
a double-digit second half deficit. Those who now doubt Duke’s KO power
should take note of the fact that the Devils’ last nine victories prior to that 73-71
triumph over UM were all by double digits. In short, while the oddsmaker’s
impost in this game might seem a tad high (9 points at TGS press time), it is not
unreasonable.
So, does Arizona have a chance to hang around and maybe give itself a
shot at an upset, à la the Wolverines? Of course, especially considering the
‘Cats have a major difference-maker in star 6-8 soph F Derrick Williams (19.1
ppg on 60% FGs, 8.2 rpg). And, on Williams’ presence alone, we’ll grant U of
A a frontcourt edge in this matchup. Still, we doubt the Wildcats can hang with
better-balanced Duke for the full 40 minutes. While Michigan had the discipline
to run its half-court sets while committing only seven turnovers against the
Devils’ relentless on-the-ball defensive pressure, less-patient Arizona seems
more likely to be baited into the uptempo, full-court that Duke prefers. And any
advantage the ‘Cats enjoy up front is nothing compared to the backcourt edge
possessed by the Blue Devils now that previously-injured terrific true frosh Kyrie
Irving has rejoined unflappable do-it-all senior star Nolan Smith (24 points vs.
UM). Duke’s righteous 75% FTing is a major asset when trying to maintain (or
increase) any late lead. And, barring further heroics from Arizona frosh G &
Texas-killer Jordin Mayes—whose only other double-digit scoring game prior to
last Sunday’s 16-point explosion against the Longhorns was back on Dec. 1
we look for the Devils to do exactly that.
NBA
DALLAS 102 - Minnesota 93—There’s probably little question who will win
this one, as Dallas has beaten Minny 17 of the last 18 meetings straight-up,
sporting a 9-1 mark in “Big D” against the Timberwolves. Minnesota’s 7-1
pointspread mark last 8 in Dallas since Kevin Garnett left for Boston is much
more pertinent to this discussion. However, with key T-wolf F Kevin Love
questionable with a groin injury suffered against Sacto on Sunday and Michael
Beasley (19 ppg, 5.5 rpg) still playing through a sore hip (only 15 minutes vs.
Kings), it’s difficult to get too enthusiastic about backing Minny. Dallas has some
injury problems of its own, as F Shawn Marion (12 ppg, 7 rpg; wrist) missed
Sunday’s game against the Warriors, although he felt he’d be ready for this
game. Mavs have turned things around as a big home favorite, covering 6 of last
8 chances laying 9 points or more at American Airlines Arena, but fact is Rick
Carlisle’s crew is just 5-5 SU in last 10, and they could be laying a mountain of
points in this one. 10-DAL -10 100-86 (204), Dal -6' 108-105 (210); 09-Dal -10'
89-77 (198), Min +10 117-108 (206), DAL -13 112-109 (201), Dal -6' 125-112
(207)
UTAH 99 - New Orleans 92—The home team won and covered first two
meetings between these two this season, with the wins coming by 18 and 29
points. Both of those games were played before Utah lost HC Jerry Sloan and PG
Deron Williams, who led the Jazz in scoring in the series. New Orleans PG Chris
Paul likely to be in a surly mood after being held without a basket in home loss to
Boston on Saturday night, and his matchup against present Utah PG Devin
Harris will be key. Harris is shooting just 39.5% in March, but he did a decent job
against Paul when New Orleans played New Jersey this season. Perhaps more
importantly for the Jazz, however, is the fact that F Paul Millsap (17 ppg, 8 rpg)
returned to action in grand fashion on Sunday, scoring 35 pts. and pulling down
10 boards against Houston. Jazz have covered 3 straight, the first such streak
since late November, and they’ve won 3 in a row at EnergySolutions Arena,
where they’ve also won and covered 6 of the last 7 against the Hornets. Dueling
"totals" notes; Utah “over” in 5 straight and 7 of last 8, while New Orleans “under”
10-3 since the All-Star break, and the series has gone “under” 8-1 last 9 in Salt
Lake City. 10-UTAH -4 105-87 (193), NO +1 100-71 (192); 09-No +8 91-87
(197), Utah -4 98-90 (202), UTAH -9' 106-86 (211), Utah -7' 114-103 (210)
CBB
★★★Florida 81 - Byu 73—BYU is thrilled to make it the Sweet 16 for the
first time since 1981, when Danny Ainge was the ringleader of the Cougs. And,
though BYU played a nearly flawless game in its resounding 89-67 bashing vs.
previously-hot Gonzaga last Saturday, we firmly believe BYU will be heading
back to Provo after this rematch vs. a veteran Florida contingent without a real
weakness, now that its foul shooting (26 of 34 FTs in its first two games) seems
to be no longer an Achilles Heel. Of course, the Gators are ecstatic to have
another crack at the Cougs after being knocked out of the NCAAs LY by BYU in
a stinging 99-92 double-OT loss in the first round at Oklahoma City. In that
barnburner, the Cougs’ ultra-explosive G Jimmer Fredette (29 ppg) poured in
37, ending Florida’s 12-game winning streak in the Big Dance.
With Fredette getting the lion’s share of media attention this week, look for
the Gators’ complementary duo of 6-2 soph G Kenny Boynton (14 ppg; ankle
tweak vs. UCLA not considered serious) and speedy, clutch, 5-8 jr. PG Erving
Walker (20 ppg in first two rounds) to shine, with the latter out-quicking the
Cougs’ 6-3 sr. Jackson Emery. Plus, Walker is itching to atone for LY’s
performance, when he converted just 4 of 16 from the field (3 of 13 from the arc),
while committing 7 TOs. Must admit that BYU has somewhat adjusted to the
loss of top post performer 6-9 soph Brandon Davies (dismissed from team), with
more assertive interior defense recently from 6-10 C James Anderson and with
bench help from 6-8 soph F Stephen Rogers & 6-6 sr. Logan Magnusson in the
first two rounds. But believe Davies’ absence will be fully exposed vs. the most
imposing group of “bigs” BYU has faced during the 7-game stretch its PF has
been out. Not only will UF’s big, tough, seasoned trio of 6-10 sr. F Vernon
Macklin, 6-8 sr. Alex Tyus, and 6-9 sr. F Chandler Parsons (SEC Player of the
Year) be problematic, but NBA prospect, 6-8 frosh F/C Patric Young & emerging
6-10 soph C Erick Murphy have been providing solid work off the bench
(combining for 28 pts. & 13 rebs. first two rounds).
Hence, Florida will be able to attack inside first with its motion, pick-and-roll
offense, opening the perimeter game for the Gator marksmen. And believe
UF’s highly-successful mentor Billy Donovan (24-8 SU mark in the Big Dance),
who has done a masterful job mixing man-to-man (Boynton says he is eager for
the challenging assignment vs. Fredette) and zone down the stretch, has a shot
at slowing down the seemingly-unstoppable Cougar marksman. So, in an opencourt,
free-flowing game in which deeper and more-athletic Florida thrives, must
lay small number with the revenge-minded, better-balanced Gators (4 starters
in DDs), who have notched 26 of their 28 victories TY by 3 points or more.
Butler 65 - Wisconsin 63—UW is making its third trip to the Sweet 16
under respected 10th-year mentor Bo Ryan, but this is the first time since 2007-
08, following Wisconsin’s hard-earned 70-65 victory vs. Kansas State last
Saturday in Tucson. It must be duly noted the Badgers are on pace to break the
Division I records for fewest turnovers per game (7.39) and free throw
percentage (.822). Yes, highly-disciplined, defensively-stingy Wisconsin (59
ppg)—paced by consummate PG Jordan Taylor (20 ppg; leads nation in assistto-
TO ratio) and invaluable 6-10 sr. C Jon Leuer (18 ppg, 7 rpg)—has few empty
possessions and won’t beat itself.
But it’s the same recipe for Butler. That is why we strongly suggest taking
a couple (bonus) hoops with the sizzling Bulldogs (on an 11-game win streak)
under the astute guidance of HC Brad Stevens (14-2 SU in March), who lives by
the mantra “The game honors toughness.” The defensively-sticky Bulldogs (32-
1 SU mark last 2 campaigns when limiting foes to fewer than 60 pts.) clearly
demonstrated their toughness in spades with their last-second victories vs.
defensively-fierce Old Dominion and Southeast No. 1 seed Pittsburgh (with 20
ties and 28 lead changes in that game!), who were the top two rebounding
teams in the nation!
Look for the Badgers to have some trouble smoothly executing their fabled
swing offense, since Butler’s pesky defensive stopper, G Ronald Nored (twice
Horizon League all-defensive team)—who limited Panther top scorer Ashton
Gibbs to 11 points—will do an effective job hounding Wiscy orchestrator Taylor
by denying him the ball. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs’ relentless and heroic 6-8 sr.
F Matt Howard (18 ppg, 7 rpg) & coming 6-11 soph C Andrew Smith should be
able to neutralize UW’s premier “big” Leuer & the dangerous 6-8 F Keaton
Nankivil (46% from arc). Sure, Wiscy has been getting solid help from key
reserve, 6-6 wild-haired soph F Mike Bruesewitz (19 pts. in first two games), but
Butler also got a nice spark off the bench from 6-8 frosh Kyhle Marshall (6 pts,
6 rebs. in 17 mins.) vs. Pitt.
In what figures to be a grinding battle probably decided in the final minutes,
have the most faith in fearless 6-3 jr. G Shelvin Mack (18 ppg during 11-game
win skein), who has scored in DDs in all nine of his NCAA contests, including his
brilliant 30-pt. explosion on Saturday. Plus, good-shooting Butler (nearly 8 treys
pg at 37% during its streak)—which nailed 12 triples vs. Pitt (the most the
Panthers had allowed since their season opener!)—should find openings vs.
the Badgers’ permissive perimeter D (Big Ten worst 37% from the arc). So,
expect the underdog-thriving “Cardiac Kids” of Butler (4 straight wins in that role
in the last two NCAAs, also 4 straight 2-point or less Big Dance deicisons!) to
advance vs. a Wiscy squad knocked out as a similarly-priced favorite vs.
Stephen Curry's Davidson back in 2007-08.
SAN DIEGO STATE 63 - Connecticut 59—If we were making a
recommendation on this game based solely on which squad looked better in the
sub-regionals, it would be a no-brainer. In fact, you could argue that sizzling
Connecticut is as hot as any team left in the field. The Huskies are 7-0 both
straight-up & vs. the spread in the postseason so far, following their fivevictories-
in-five-days march to the Big East tourney title with a brutal beatdown
of a capable Bucknell last Thursday. And UConn passed a much tougher test
a couple of days later when it conquered familiar foe Cincinnati in a workmanlike
double-digit win. Sometimes it’s easy to get bogged down in the minutiae of a
matchup while ignoring the simpler, more obvious aspects. With that in mind,
the Huskies are worthy of consideration on momentum alone.
Oh yeah, and then there’s Kemba Walker. The überconfident UConn guard
is quite simply one of the best individual players in the nation, and he’s certainly
the most dynamic offensive threat in this clash. If Walker (26 ppg in the last 8;
16 points in the final 10 minutes against the Bearcats) has the ball in his hands
with a shot to win the game, we like the Huskies’ chances.
That’s not to say there isn’t a stronger argument to be made for San Diego
State. Sure, the Aztecs had considerably more trouble getting here, taking
nearly the full 40 minutes to bludgeon outmanned Northern Colorado into
submission in their first game, then needing an extra 10 minutes to subdue
plucky Temple in last Saturday’s double-overtime win at Tucson. But, speaking
of keeping it simple, those were State’s 33rd and 34th straight-up victories of the
season vs. only two losses (“Jimmered” by BYU in both), so you can’t say Steve
Fisher’s crew doesn’t know a thing or two about closing out games. And, after
the Aztecs improbably ended up covering a substantial six-point spot in their 71-
64 over the Owls, we can’t help but wonder if the pointspread gods might just be
on the side of San Diego State (22-12 vs. the line on the season).
More importantly, the Aztecs will be supported by a highly-partisan crowd,
with thousands of their fans expected to make the short 95-mile drive up the I-
5 to Orange County’s Honda Center. And the fundamental aspects of this
matchup don’t look that bad for State, either. The Aztecs do an excellent job of
guarding closely without fouling, holding UNC & Temple to 36% FGs and only
19 total FT attempts. And they have some intriguing options to throw at Walker
on the stop end, including long-armed 6-8 sr. F Billy White. Ultimately, we just
think that over the course of 40-minute (or more) battle, it’s likely that all-for-one
San Diego State (five starters contributed between 9 and 16 points against
Temple) will be able to grind out enough scoring possessions to eventually
outdistance the more one-for-all Connecticut.
Duke 83 - Arizona 69—A quick review of these two NCAA tourney regulars’
recent Big Dance history seems in order. In the 11 seasons from 2000-10,
Krzyzewski’s Dookies made nine trips to the Sweet 16. While the Blue Devils
did go all the way twice (including last year), they were also ousted in this round
six times during that span. And Duke has just three pointspread victories in
those last nine Sweet 16 games (Devils were favored in all but one).
While Arizona whiffed on a Big Dance bid last year for the first time since
1984, the Wildcats have also made some deep NCAA tourney forays recently.
Since 2000, U of A has made it past the Sweet 16 three times, including an 82-
72 loss to Duke in the 2001 championship game. Sure, head coach Sean Miller
is in only his second season at the Wildcat helm. But the crafty former Xavier
mentor has his own history of success in the Big Dance, leading the Musketeers
all the way to Elite Eight in 2008, then back to the Sweet 16 in his final season
before bolting for Tucson. And Miller was a sterling 8-1-1 vs. the spread in his
10 total NCAA tourney games with the X-men.
As to the matchup at hand, we don’t want to read too much into the Blue
Devils’ close call against Michigan last Sunday. Instead, the Wolverines
deserve credit for having a smart gameplan and the moxie to battle back from
a double-digit second half deficit. Those who now doubt Duke’s KO power
should take note of the fact that the Devils’ last nine victories prior to that 73-71
triumph over UM were all by double digits. In short, while the oddsmaker’s
impost in this game might seem a tad high (9 points at TGS press time), it is not
unreasonable.
So, does Arizona have a chance to hang around and maybe give itself a
shot at an upset, à la the Wolverines? Of course, especially considering the
‘Cats have a major difference-maker in star 6-8 soph F Derrick Williams (19.1
ppg on 60% FGs, 8.2 rpg). And, on Williams’ presence alone, we’ll grant U of
A a frontcourt edge in this matchup. Still, we doubt the Wildcats can hang with
better-balanced Duke for the full 40 minutes. While Michigan had the discipline
to run its half-court sets while committing only seven turnovers against the
Devils’ relentless on-the-ball defensive pressure, less-patient Arizona seems
more likely to be baited into the uptempo, full-court that Duke prefers. And any
advantage the ‘Cats enjoy up front is nothing compared to the backcourt edge
possessed by the Blue Devils now that previously-injured terrific true frosh Kyrie
Irving has rejoined unflappable do-it-all senior star Nolan Smith (24 points vs.
UM). Duke’s righteous 75% FTing is a major asset when trying to maintain (or
increase) any late lead. And, barring further heroics from Arizona frosh G &
Texas-killer Jordin Mayes—whose only other double-digit scoring game prior to
last Sunday’s 16-point explosion against the Longhorns was back on Dec. 1
we look for the Devils to do exactly that.
