NCAAB
Write-Up
Thursday, March 24
UConn, San Diego State both won last seven games; Huskies have been down this road before, winning West region three times in last 12 years, but huge edge in experience (Aztecs #61, UConn #332), plus being close to home (Anaheim) has to help San Diego State here. Walker has often been one-man gang for Huskies, something Fisher has seen before, with three games against Jimmer under his belt. Underdogs are 8-7 vs spread in last 15 regional semis with #2-3 seeds playing. I think Aztecs win.
BYU beat Florida 99-92 in double OT in first round of NCAAs LY, but key player for Cougars after Fredette (37 points) was backup PG Loyd (26 points off bench), who transferred after season. Gators turned ball over 21 times (-9) in that game. Boynton tweaked ankle in UCLA game, didn't practice Monday, but did Wednesday; they'll need him close to 100% to help contain prolific Jimmer. Florida ranks 30th in defending 3-pointers; key to BYU is how does supporting cast shoot? Fredette will get his; if other guys are making shots, BYU becomes much tougher.
Last seven times Duke played in regional semis, they are 2-5, including a 2-3 mark in this round last five times they were a #1-seed; in their last 11 regional semis, Duke is just 3-8 vs spread. Arizona's star Williams is 8th in country in getting to foul line; we'll see how long that lasts against Blue Devil squad that often gets friendly whistle. Duke won at Oregon 98-71 in only game vs Pac-10 squad (Singler's homecoming game). One sneaky thing in Arizona's favor: Wildcats are #3 in defending 3-pointers, and that is Duke's lifeline, but Blue Devils are also getting Irving into the flow after he's come back from lengthy injury absence.
Over last three years, favorites are 16-8 vs spread in this round, so edge to Wisconsin in what figures to be lower-scoring game (Butler is #280 in pace, Badgers #345 (last)). Wisconsin is 2-0 vs Horizon teams this year, beating Milwaukee 61-40, Green Bay 70-56. #8-9 seeds get to this point by upsetting a #1-seed, which is big, but over last 15 years, #8-9 seeds are just 2-5 vs spread in regional semis. Big 11 non-conference favorites of 6 or less points are 10-16 vs spread. Horizon dogs of 6 or less? 13-9