Teddy June’s College Basketball Favorite of the Week
My 10* College Basketball Favorite of the Week is the Iowa Hawkeyes minus the points over the Minnesota Golden Gophers. I talk about overrated/overvalued teams in the market place a great deal in my write-ups and tonight we get a terrific opportunity to fade, according to my numbers, one of the most overrated/overvalued teams in the country in the Gophers. The Gophers for the 2nd straight year have jumped out of the gates fast posting 13-1 SU record and have only played 2 games away from home all year long. They won at Colorado State by one point and beat Louisville by 6 on a neutral floor. The Ville have had a disastrous start to their season where they have been very up and down so I take that win with a grain of salt. Outside of those two games their other 12 games have all been at home. Additionally their non-conference schedule was a cake walk beating the likes of Concordia St. Paul, Eastern Washington, ND State, SD State, Southeastern Louisiana and the list goes on. Meanwhile on the other side Iowa has played a solid early season schedule with wins over Kansas State, Iowa State, and Northern Iowa and losses against WVU, BC, Drake and Ohio State. They have picked up their strong home court advantage early this season posting 9-0 SU record, while stumbling the last few years, this has been a team that for many years was unbeatable at home. While they are still a program in rebuilding under Lickliter and will certainly have their ups and downs this season they are in a great spot tonight. The Hawkeyes are catching a Minnesota team making their first road trip in conference and playing in their first true road environment game this season. The key for Iowa will be getting good looks and continuing their process of the Lickliter offense that is slow, methodical and effective. It has led to good early things with the Hawkeyes shooting 47.6% from the field overall and 40.9% from the 3 point line, two staples of a Lickliter team. It is noteworthy the Gophers are 2-8-1 ATS their last 11 road games after playing 3 or more straight home games and the Hawkeyes are 5-2 ATS their last 7 games overall. I currently have this line at -1.5. My 10* College Favorite of the Week is the Iowa Hawkeyes minus the points. As always, Good Luck, Let’s make some money.
Teddy June’s College Basketball Underdog Game of the Day
My 10* College Basketball Underdog Game of the Day is the Wright State Raiders plus the points over the Butler Bulldogs. Occasionally in sports a key injury can actually help a team to rally, new players step up and players emerge as that key player sits out with the injury. Thus is the case for Wright State as they started the year 0-6 SU, 0-5 ATS and then proceeded to lose one of their better players in Vaughn Duggins to a hand injury. Then they proceeded to win two straight including a decent win against a pretty good Arkansas LR team, lost by 13 to Wake Forest in Wake as 22 point underdogs and since have reeled off 6 straight wins including wins over Oral Roberts, USF, and a solid Cleveland State team. The difference maker for them has been the maturation of stud JUCO transfer and two time JUCO all American Cory Cooperwoord. He has provided a nice post presence and a scorer for them. Additionally the play of John David Gardner who has scored in double figures in 8 of his last 10 games and is averaging 4 assists per game as well. The junior guard Todd Brown has also been key for them scoring in double figures in 4 straight games. With Duggins out the Raiders have rallied, members have fit new roles and players have stepped up to turn around their season. The Raiders have to travel to a tough place to play tonight but a place they are very familiar with. Wright State and Butler have quietly built up a nice rivalry in the Horizon the last several years with 8 of their last 10 meetings being decided in single digits. In addition to that Butlers rise to national prominence has added some spice to this matchup. The Bulldogs after losing several key players are having another solid year but playing a bit over their expected expectations. They have recently gotten into the top 25 rankings but I have them being overvalued in the betting marketplace. Their early season success has inflated this number along with their reputation in the marketplace while Wright State’s early stumbles really knock them out of the Horizon picture early on. The Raiders have dominated this series ATS wise as they are 11-1 ATS their last 12 against Butler, this simply due to the fact that every time these two teams meet up Butler is the team on the public’s radar and in turn the line is inflated to recognize that. Two slow methodical teams who play solid defense, I expect a low scoring tight affair here. I currently have this line at +10.5. My 10* College Basketball Underdog Game of the Day is the Wright State Raiders plus the points. As always, Good Luck, Let’s make some money.
Teddy June’s College Football BCS Championship Selection
My 10* College Football BCS Championship Selection is the Oklahoma Sooners plus the points over the Florida Gators. The big game is finally here pitting the 12-1 SU/10-2 ATS Gators against the 12-1 SU/10-2 ATS Oklahoma Sooners. With the way the media has talked about this game and the way the betting public has continued to pound Florida you would think the Sooners aren’t even going to step out on the field tonight. The reason has been simple, the Big 12 has not looked good for the most part in the Bowl games and Florida has been a public darling with Tebow for quite a while now. That being said motivation is something that is very crucial in bowl games and in College sports and Texas Tech, Texas, Missouri, and the rest of the Big 12 did not have much motivation to show up in their bowl games. The comparison being made to Oklahoma really cannot be said because this Sooners squad is far different than the rest of the Big 12. They scored 60 or more points in 5 straight games down the stretch and finished the season averaging 54ppg. They have more athletes on the offense end than any other team in the Big 12 and are led by a 6’4 NFL prototype quarterback who had his 2nd straight phenomenal season. Additionally he sits behind the biggest and best offensive line in the country unlike Texas Tech who’s offensive line is far from the same level. Also they run a more pro style offense than any of the other Big 12 teams. While there is no question these offensive numbers are a bit inflated due to the Big 12 being offense happy they are still phenomenal numbers and Oklahoma still has a ton of talent on the offensive end. Florida has not seen an offense like this all year long and matter of fact Oklahoma’s defense has seen high powered strong offenses all season while Florida has seen much weaker offenses. Oklahoma’s defense faced the following offensive ranks this season, 24, 46, 9, 21, 34, 13, 4, 6 and 8th. Meanwhile, Florida faced 72, 89, 116, 30, 49, 56, 107, 22, 116, 97, no rank, 54 and 64th. Additionally the best offense they faced was 30th that was Ole Miss the only game they have lost this year. While everyone trashes on Oklahoma’s defense in comparison to Florida’s it is done so unfairly in my opinion as Florida faced a boat load of SEC teams that in a down year offensively were frankly not very good. Oklahoma’s defense every single week was tested by a strong offense and most of the time they were so far ahead in games they let up anyways. Florida’s offense has not been nearly as impressive as Oklahoma this season, the reason is Harvin can’t stay healthy (said to be around 90 percent tonight) and it is frankly not a hard offense to prepare for. Tebow and crew really don’t do a lot of special things on the offensive end, especially in comparison to what has been called the fast break in football in the Sooners offense. Coach Bob Stoops at one point in his career carried the nick name big game Bob that until his Sooners pulled no-shows in 4 of the last 5 bowl games they have played in. That motivation will show up on the field tonight, there is nothing like listening to the media and public hammer into the players that their program can’t show up in the big game and it will give Stoops more motivation than he’s ever had to win a game. There was a reason at one point in time he was named big game Bob and I expect we see it tonight in his preparation and game plan for this game. The line has moved off the opening of -3 for Florida and that was even shaded off the LVSC number of -1.5. The reason has been simple everyone is betting on Florida and books have continued to have to move the line. This has created some nice value for Oklahoma backers and an opportunity to go against the entire free world in a big game. Wait on this line and get 6 if you can. My 10* College Football BCS Championship Selection is the Oklahoma Sooners plus the points. As always, Good Luck, Let’s make some money.
My 10* College Basketball Favorite of the Week is the Iowa Hawkeyes minus the points over the Minnesota Golden Gophers. I talk about overrated/overvalued teams in the market place a great deal in my write-ups and tonight we get a terrific opportunity to fade, according to my numbers, one of the most overrated/overvalued teams in the country in the Gophers. The Gophers for the 2nd straight year have jumped out of the gates fast posting 13-1 SU record and have only played 2 games away from home all year long. They won at Colorado State by one point and beat Louisville by 6 on a neutral floor. The Ville have had a disastrous start to their season where they have been very up and down so I take that win with a grain of salt. Outside of those two games their other 12 games have all been at home. Additionally their non-conference schedule was a cake walk beating the likes of Concordia St. Paul, Eastern Washington, ND State, SD State, Southeastern Louisiana and the list goes on. Meanwhile on the other side Iowa has played a solid early season schedule with wins over Kansas State, Iowa State, and Northern Iowa and losses against WVU, BC, Drake and Ohio State. They have picked up their strong home court advantage early this season posting 9-0 SU record, while stumbling the last few years, this has been a team that for many years was unbeatable at home. While they are still a program in rebuilding under Lickliter and will certainly have their ups and downs this season they are in a great spot tonight. The Hawkeyes are catching a Minnesota team making their first road trip in conference and playing in their first true road environment game this season. The key for Iowa will be getting good looks and continuing their process of the Lickliter offense that is slow, methodical and effective. It has led to good early things with the Hawkeyes shooting 47.6% from the field overall and 40.9% from the 3 point line, two staples of a Lickliter team. It is noteworthy the Gophers are 2-8-1 ATS their last 11 road games after playing 3 or more straight home games and the Hawkeyes are 5-2 ATS their last 7 games overall. I currently have this line at -1.5. My 10* College Favorite of the Week is the Iowa Hawkeyes minus the points. As always, Good Luck, Let’s make some money.
Teddy June’s College Basketball Underdog Game of the Day
My 10* College Basketball Underdog Game of the Day is the Wright State Raiders plus the points over the Butler Bulldogs. Occasionally in sports a key injury can actually help a team to rally, new players step up and players emerge as that key player sits out with the injury. Thus is the case for Wright State as they started the year 0-6 SU, 0-5 ATS and then proceeded to lose one of their better players in Vaughn Duggins to a hand injury. Then they proceeded to win two straight including a decent win against a pretty good Arkansas LR team, lost by 13 to Wake Forest in Wake as 22 point underdogs and since have reeled off 6 straight wins including wins over Oral Roberts, USF, and a solid Cleveland State team. The difference maker for them has been the maturation of stud JUCO transfer and two time JUCO all American Cory Cooperwoord. He has provided a nice post presence and a scorer for them. Additionally the play of John David Gardner who has scored in double figures in 8 of his last 10 games and is averaging 4 assists per game as well. The junior guard Todd Brown has also been key for them scoring in double figures in 4 straight games. With Duggins out the Raiders have rallied, members have fit new roles and players have stepped up to turn around their season. The Raiders have to travel to a tough place to play tonight but a place they are very familiar with. Wright State and Butler have quietly built up a nice rivalry in the Horizon the last several years with 8 of their last 10 meetings being decided in single digits. In addition to that Butlers rise to national prominence has added some spice to this matchup. The Bulldogs after losing several key players are having another solid year but playing a bit over their expected expectations. They have recently gotten into the top 25 rankings but I have them being overvalued in the betting marketplace. Their early season success has inflated this number along with their reputation in the marketplace while Wright State’s early stumbles really knock them out of the Horizon picture early on. The Raiders have dominated this series ATS wise as they are 11-1 ATS their last 12 against Butler, this simply due to the fact that every time these two teams meet up Butler is the team on the public’s radar and in turn the line is inflated to recognize that. Two slow methodical teams who play solid defense, I expect a low scoring tight affair here. I currently have this line at +10.5. My 10* College Basketball Underdog Game of the Day is the Wright State Raiders plus the points. As always, Good Luck, Let’s make some money.
Teddy June’s College Football BCS Championship Selection
My 10* College Football BCS Championship Selection is the Oklahoma Sooners plus the points over the Florida Gators. The big game is finally here pitting the 12-1 SU/10-2 ATS Gators against the 12-1 SU/10-2 ATS Oklahoma Sooners. With the way the media has talked about this game and the way the betting public has continued to pound Florida you would think the Sooners aren’t even going to step out on the field tonight. The reason has been simple, the Big 12 has not looked good for the most part in the Bowl games and Florida has been a public darling with Tebow for quite a while now. That being said motivation is something that is very crucial in bowl games and in College sports and Texas Tech, Texas, Missouri, and the rest of the Big 12 did not have much motivation to show up in their bowl games. The comparison being made to Oklahoma really cannot be said because this Sooners squad is far different than the rest of the Big 12. They scored 60 or more points in 5 straight games down the stretch and finished the season averaging 54ppg. They have more athletes on the offense end than any other team in the Big 12 and are led by a 6’4 NFL prototype quarterback who had his 2nd straight phenomenal season. Additionally he sits behind the biggest and best offensive line in the country unlike Texas Tech who’s offensive line is far from the same level. Also they run a more pro style offense than any of the other Big 12 teams. While there is no question these offensive numbers are a bit inflated due to the Big 12 being offense happy they are still phenomenal numbers and Oklahoma still has a ton of talent on the offensive end. Florida has not seen an offense like this all year long and matter of fact Oklahoma’s defense has seen high powered strong offenses all season while Florida has seen much weaker offenses. Oklahoma’s defense faced the following offensive ranks this season, 24, 46, 9, 21, 34, 13, 4, 6 and 8th. Meanwhile, Florida faced 72, 89, 116, 30, 49, 56, 107, 22, 116, 97, no rank, 54 and 64th. Additionally the best offense they faced was 30th that was Ole Miss the only game they have lost this year. While everyone trashes on Oklahoma’s defense in comparison to Florida’s it is done so unfairly in my opinion as Florida faced a boat load of SEC teams that in a down year offensively were frankly not very good. Oklahoma’s defense every single week was tested by a strong offense and most of the time they were so far ahead in games they let up anyways. Florida’s offense has not been nearly as impressive as Oklahoma this season, the reason is Harvin can’t stay healthy (said to be around 90 percent tonight) and it is frankly not a hard offense to prepare for. Tebow and crew really don’t do a lot of special things on the offensive end, especially in comparison to what has been called the fast break in football in the Sooners offense. Coach Bob Stoops at one point in his career carried the nick name big game Bob that until his Sooners pulled no-shows in 4 of the last 5 bowl games they have played in. That motivation will show up on the field tonight, there is nothing like listening to the media and public hammer into the players that their program can’t show up in the big game and it will give Stoops more motivation than he’s ever had to win a game. There was a reason at one point in time he was named big game Bob and I expect we see it tonight in his preparation and game plan for this game. The line has moved off the opening of -3 for Florida and that was even shaded off the LVSC number of -1.5. The reason has been simple everyone is betting on Florida and books have continued to have to move the line. This has created some nice value for Oklahoma backers and an opportunity to go against the entire free world in a big game. Wait on this line and get 6 if you can. My 10* College Football BCS Championship Selection is the Oklahoma Sooners plus the points. As always, Good Luck, Let’s make some money.
just talked to cpaw, these request are so far out of hand in the service section, posters will more than likely get a short term ban from posting here...
just sayin, it may actually help to show him some respect
ps...
Cuban, do you need help reading what has been posted? or are you posting dupes on purpose? and your 25 friends emailing you, are their names ATS?
just sayin, it may actually help to show him some respect
ps...
Cuban, do you need help reading what has been posted? or are you posting dupes on purpose? and your 25 friends emailing you, are their names ATS?
Cajun-Sports Executive- Thursday
Thursday, January 08, 2009
Handicapper: Cajun Sports
Florida vs. Oklahoma (NCAAF) - 8:15 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: -5/-108 Florida Play Title: Cajuns BCS Championship "Trophy Club" 33-0 ATS!!
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
It’s finally here - #1 vs. #2 in the 3rd BCS National Championship game, as Gators and Sooners will face off with national bragging rights on the line.
Florida with Urban Meyer is no stranger to this game, as they won the inaugural BCS Title Game two years ago, with a thorough 41-14 whipping of Ohio State. The Gators opponents this season can certainly relate to how the Buckeyes felt in that game, as outside of a 1-point defeat to Ole Miss in late September, Florida has rolled over their foes, including lopsided wins against Tennessee, Georgia and Florida State outside of Gainesville and an equally impressive performance against LSU at home. The result was yet another SEC East crown, setting up a showdown with the undefeated Alabama Crimson Tide for the SEC Title in early December. When the smoke cleared, Florida had earned a 31-20 victory and a trip to the national title game here in Miami.
Oklahoma and Bob Stoops got here in similar fashion – losing just one game and then winning their conference title in. The one bump in the road for the Sooners was a 45-35 setback to Texas back in October. Since then, the Sooners have run off seven straight wins and closed out the year with five consecutive 60+ point explosions on offense, including a 62-21 rout of Missouri in the Big 12 Title Game.
The Gator offense is not bad either, and a big reason why the team is in a position to win its second national title in the last three years. It certainly doesn't hurt to have a Heisman Trophy winner running the show in QB Tim Tebow. The junior won the Heisman last season as a sophomore and was a finalist this year after leading an offense that had little trouble moving the football either on the ground or through the air. Tebow passed for over for 2,500 yards to go along with 28 TDs against just 2 INTs.
Tebow also rushed for well over 500 yards, with another 12 TDs on the ground. The biggest difference between this year and last for Tebow, is his supporting cast, as he is no longer the primary weapon on this side of the football. That distinction has to go to the versatile Percy Harvin, who was a handful both in the backfield and on the outside. Other key contributors include freshmen tailbacks Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps and senior wideout Louis Murphy.
While the offense gets a great deal of the attention in Gainesville, the Florida defense was often responsible for putting the offense in position to score. The Gators ranked second in the country this season with 24 interceptions and made the biggest plays when it counted the most, ranking first in the nation with 12 interceptions against Top-25 foes. Overall, the Gators allowed just 279 yards of total offense per game, showing equal disdain for the run and the pass. The team amassed 33 takeaways in all and also excelled at getting after opposing QBs, with 32 sacks.
The Gators defense will certainly face their toughest challenge to date, as Oklahoma comes in as the hottest offensive team in the country. The numbers are mind-boggling on the year, with the Sooners ranking 19th nationally in rushing and third nationally in passing, resulting in a national-best 54 ppg. Oklahoma also has a Heisman winner running the show, as sophomore Sam Bradford beat out Tebow for the coveted award this season. Bradford was indeed remarkable this year, completing nearly 70 percent of his passes for a whopping 4,464 yards, with 48 TDs and just six interceptions.
The ground game definitely benefits from the prolific passing attack; however, the team will be without 1,000-yard rusher DeMarco Murray in this game due to injury. Oklahoma does have another workhorse in Chris Brown, who paced the Sooners with 1,110 yards and 20 rushing TDs.
The Oklahoma defense deserves some credit for the team's success this year as well. The Sooners stop unit has been especially stout against the run, limiting foes to just 106 yards per game. The pass defense has been more generous, allowing over 250 ypg. This is another "big play" defense, with Oklahoma amassing 32 takeaways and 42 sacks in 13 games.
To win the second national championship of the Stoops era, the Sooners must turn back the clock on its more recent January fortunes. They won the 2000 national championship at the Orange Bowl and won the Rose Bowl to close out the 2002 season. Yet ever since, it's lost back-to-back national championship games at the Sugar Bowl and Orange Bowl and, following a year out of the BCS, has lost the last two Fiesta Bowls to underdogs Boise State and West Virginia.
Numbers-wise, Oklahoma is 0-7 ATS (-15.1 ppg) in January Bowl Games since 1988 when not getting 10+ points with 24+ days rest, while Urban Meyer is 4-0 SU & ATS all-time in Bowl Games at Utah and Florida vs. opponents off a SU win.
The Sooners supporters will point to their season-ending streak and assume that their team can’t be stopped; however, ending the season on a hot streak of at least 4 spread-covering victories has set up Bowl underdogs and small favorites set up for failure under the conditions outlined in one of our NCAA Football POWER SYSTEMS, which states:
Play AGAINST a January Bowl team (not a favorite of more than 3 points) off SU & ATS wins allowing an average of 10+ points in its last 4 games.
Since 1989, these underdogs and small favorites have been a nightmarish 0-11 SU & ATS, losing outright by nearly 22 points per game and failing to cover the spread by more than 20 points per game on average!
Also, January Bowl underdogs of less than a TD have been over-rated after a spread win as a favorite of more than 10 points. The Sooners qualify for this POWER SYSTEM as well, which reads:
Play AGAINST a January Bowl underdog of less than 7 points off a SU & ATS win as a favorite of more than 10 points vs. an opponent not off a conference home SU win & ATS loss of 14+ points.
Since 1988, these teams are an ugly 0-13 SU (-17.9 ppg) & 0-13 ATS (-14.7 ppg). Oklahoma was the PLAY AGAINST team the last time this system active in the 2005 Orange Bowl here in Miami. The high-flying Sooners were buried by USC and failed to cover the spread as a small underdog by 35 points!
Meanwhile, after coming through as a Conference Championship Game favorite, Bowl favorites have continued to play well. That’s the situation that Florida is in and they are active for another Bowl POWER SYSTEM of ours that dictates:
Play ON a Bowl favorite of more than 3 points off a Conference Championship SU win as favorite of 4+ points (not an ATS loss of more than 4 points).
These teams are a perfect 9-0 SU & ATS ALL-TIME, winning outright by 19+ points per game and covering the spread by more than a dozen points per game on average. Last year’s National Championship Game was the most recent example, with an SEC team (LSU) playing close to home and clobbering Ohio State by 21 points as a 4-point favorite.
One of our Bowl Handicapping Strategies is to play ON a Bowl underdog or small favorite that is playing at home or close to home in state. Such teams thrive in familiar surroundings in front of a partisan crowd, and are less likely to be distracted by nearby attractions. Florida will enjoy a substantial home-field advantage in Miami.
This Florida team also has many veterans on the squad that know what it is like to not just play in this type of atmosphere, but to WIN with everything on the line.
The Sooners QB Sam Bradford can spray the ball around efficiently enough to keep pace into the second half, but as much as the Sooners try to spin it there's just no overcoming Murray's absence from the lineup. It's not a coincidence that Oklahoma's offense took flight down the stretch when Murray's knee was strongest and his production was peaking. Without that threat of a premier back in the lineup the Sooners simply cannot keep Florida's defense honest enough to keep pace on the scoreboard.
It’s not a coincidence that the more well-rounded teams tend to win national championships over the ones that are known for their high-powered offenses. Whether it’s Florida State losing to Oklahoma in the 2001 Orange Bowl, Miami having a hard time getting going against Ohio State in the 2003 Fiesta Bowl, Troy Smith and Ohio State getting shut down cold by Florida in the 2007 BCS Championship, or Jason White and the Sooners losing to LSU in the 2004 Sugar Bowl, teams that have the defense and special teams to go along with a good offense, if not an explosive one, win. That’ll be the case for Florida as the defense does just enough to give Bradford a hard time by swarming the receivers and keeping the big plays to a minimum. We expect to see a lot of what Ohio State’s defense did against Colt McCoy in the Fiesta Bowl for 59+ minutes, up until the game-deciding play, by letting Bradford make his throws before blasting the receivers to force several third down chances.
The Gators will find their usual balance offensively, and will dominate on special teams, to make it three in a row for the SEC with a solid SU & ATS win over the Sooners.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: FLORIDA 42 OKLAHOMA 28
Handicapper: Cajun Sports
South Alabama vs. UL Monroe (NCAAB) - 8:00 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: -6/-110 South Alabama Play Title: Cajun Sports CBB "Big Easy" 24-2 ATS!!!!
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
The Jags make the trip to Monroe Louisiana to the face Sun Belt Conference foe Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks on Thursday night. The Jags come into this game with a 9-6 SU record on the season while the Warhawks are 5-9 SU. The Jags are coming off a loss to Mid-Tennessee State and they have responded well in this situation even when they take to the highway. The Jags are 11-3 ATS as a road favorite off a home game. Jags are 7-1 ATS as a road favorite off a home loss. If they lost ATS in their last game and now installed as a road favorite they are 10-1 ATS. If the lost ATS at home in their last game they are now 7-0 ATS. The Jags are 7-1 ATS if they lost ATS in their last game and are now facing a conference opponent. Finally we have a CBB system that says to Play AGAINST CBB teams who average <=32% from behind the arc facing a defense that allows >=36.5% from the three-point line after a game shooting 57% or higher, allowing 43% or lower, 34-11 ATS since 1997. Lay the chalk with the South Alabama Jags as they get the win and cover.
GRADED SELECTION: 3* SOUTH ALABAMA -6
Handicapper: Cajun Sports
North Texas vs. Arkansas LR (NCAAB) - 8:00 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: 4/-105 North Texas Play Title: Cajun Sports CBB "Reverse" Winner 33-10 ATS!!
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
The Eagles travel to face Sun Belt Conference opponent Arkansas-Little Rock on Thursday night at the Stephens Center. North Texas checks in with an 8-6 SU record on the year while the Trojans have posted a record of 9-5 SU. Little Rock is 6-2 SU at home this season but only 2-6 ATS. North Texas is as a road underdog over the last two seasons. ALR is 6-16-3 ATS off a road loss in their last game and now installed as a favorite. If they lost that game ATS and are a favorite in their next game they are 4-13-4 ATS. We also have a CBB System that tells us to Play ON CBB underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points with a team allowing 77+ points per game on the season, after a combined score of 155 points or more 3 straight games, 33-10 ATS the last five seasons. Take the points here as the North Texas Eagles surprise the Trojans and get the straight up win.
GRADED SELECTION: 3* NORTH TEXAS +4
Handicapper: Cajun Sports
California vs. Washington State (NCAAB) - 10:00 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: 2/-113 California Play Title: Cajun Sports CBB Key Momentum Winner 45-3 ATS!!
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
The Golden Bears make the trip north to face PAC 10 foe Washington State Cougars on Thursday night at the Friel Court at Beasley Coliseum. Cal is 13-2 SU and 9-2 ATS on the year including 5-0 SU and 4-0 ATS their last five games overall. In conference play so far this season the Cal Bears are 2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS. The Cougars are 8-5 SU and 4-7 ATS this year including 2-3 SU and 2-3 ATS their last five games. Their conference record is 0-1 SU and ATS. Washington State is 0-7 ATS versus teams that are outscoring their opponents by 12+ points per game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. The Cougars are 1-10 ATS after 2 or more consecutive “Unders” over the last 2 seasons and 0-6 ATS in home games after scoring 55 points or less the last two years. Cal is 16-6 ATS in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons and 15-6 ATS in road games after a conference game the last three years. Cal is 66-42 ATS when playing against a team with a win percentage of 60% to 80%. Cal is 5-0 ATS after going “Over” in their last game and are now facing a conference opponent with a line range of pk to 3 points. Take the point(s) here as Cal continues their winning streak against conference opponents.
GRADED SELECTION: 3* CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS +2
Handicapper: Cajun Sports
Minnesota U vs. Iowa (NCAAB) - 7:00 PM EST Bonus Play
Pick: Point Spread: 2.5/-104 Minnesota U Play Title: Cajuns CBB Big 10 Complimentary Selection
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
Carver-Hawkeye Arena will be the site on this Big 10 clash between the host Iowa Hawkeyes and the visiting Minnesota Golden Gophers. The Hawkeyes enter tonight’s contest off a SU win over Indiana on Saturday as a home favorite of 13 points, 65 to 60 failing to cover the number. The Gophers are also off a SU win on Saturday as they defeated Ohio State at home 68 to 59 as a four-point home favorite.
Minnesota will put one of the Big 10’s most balanced teams on the floor tonight. They rank near the top of the Big 10 in scoring, averaging 73.1 points per game and this has been accomplished despite the fact they only have one player that ranks in the top 25 of the Big 10 Conference in scoring. They are led by Lawrence Westbrook who is averaging 13 points per game on the year.
The Gophers are only allowing their opponents to score 62.0 points per game and this to teams that average 70.5 points per game on the year. Minnesota averages 67.1 possessions with an efficiency rating of 108.9. They lead the Big 10 Conference in steals with a 9.1 average. The Gophers are 3rd in the conference in total rebounds with 39.8 and they have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.3.
In the Gophers win on Saturday over the Buckeyes twelve players saw action with ten of those playing at least ten minutes. Head Coach Tubby Smith has been known for this type of rotation and it has worked for him in the past and appears to be working for his Gophers team now. In fact most teams have played a weak non-conference schedule but the Gophers do have a quality win already this season as they defeated the Louisville Cardinals in Glendale Arizona back on December 20th, winning 70 to 54 as a nine-point underdog.
Iowa on the other hand has struggled against the above average non-conference opponents as well as Big 10 foes that they have faced so far this season. The Hawkeyes lost to West Virginia 87 to 68 as a 9.5 point underdog, Boston College 57 to 55 as an 8 point underdog and to Ohio State 68 to 65 as an 8 point underdog.
Iowa is averaging 64.7 points per game and they are allowing 55.9 points per game which places them in the top 10 in the country in scoring defense. They only average 57.5 possessions per contest with an efficiency rating of 112.4. The Hawkeyes average 30.9 in total rebounds and allow their opponents 31.7 rebounds per game. Their assist to turnover ratio is 1.10 on the season.
This bureau believes the Gophers will be successful in dictating the tempo and pace to which this game will be played. The fact that Tubby uses so many of his players in each game has begun to pay dividends and they should be able to handle this Hawkeye defense on Thursday night.
The Gophers have proven they can win at Carver-Hawkeye Arena posting a 7-1 ATS record there since 1997. We also note that the Hawkeyes struggle in the roll of favorite with a record of 75-103 ATS. Iowa is 17-37 ATS off a home win versus a conference rival and 11-31 ATS off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite since 1997. They are 18-40-2 ATS if they are off a SU home win in their last game and are now installed as a favorite. If they lost that home game ATS their record is 8-26 ATS and if they are now a home favorite their record is 2-13 ATS.
With significant support both fundamentally and technically we will back the visitor here as the Minnesota Gophers go on the Big 10 road and get the straight up win.
Projected Final Score: Minnesota Gophers 70 Iowa Hawkeyes 67
Thursday, January 08, 2009
Handicapper: Cajun Sports
Florida vs. Oklahoma (NCAAF) - 8:15 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: -5/-108 Florida Play Title: Cajuns BCS Championship "Trophy Club" 33-0 ATS!!
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
It’s finally here - #1 vs. #2 in the 3rd BCS National Championship game, as Gators and Sooners will face off with national bragging rights on the line.
Florida with Urban Meyer is no stranger to this game, as they won the inaugural BCS Title Game two years ago, with a thorough 41-14 whipping of Ohio State. The Gators opponents this season can certainly relate to how the Buckeyes felt in that game, as outside of a 1-point defeat to Ole Miss in late September, Florida has rolled over their foes, including lopsided wins against Tennessee, Georgia and Florida State outside of Gainesville and an equally impressive performance against LSU at home. The result was yet another SEC East crown, setting up a showdown with the undefeated Alabama Crimson Tide for the SEC Title in early December. When the smoke cleared, Florida had earned a 31-20 victory and a trip to the national title game here in Miami.
Oklahoma and Bob Stoops got here in similar fashion – losing just one game and then winning their conference title in. The one bump in the road for the Sooners was a 45-35 setback to Texas back in October. Since then, the Sooners have run off seven straight wins and closed out the year with five consecutive 60+ point explosions on offense, including a 62-21 rout of Missouri in the Big 12 Title Game.
The Gator offense is not bad either, and a big reason why the team is in a position to win its second national title in the last three years. It certainly doesn't hurt to have a Heisman Trophy winner running the show in QB Tim Tebow. The junior won the Heisman last season as a sophomore and was a finalist this year after leading an offense that had little trouble moving the football either on the ground or through the air. Tebow passed for over for 2,500 yards to go along with 28 TDs against just 2 INTs.
Tebow also rushed for well over 500 yards, with another 12 TDs on the ground. The biggest difference between this year and last for Tebow, is his supporting cast, as he is no longer the primary weapon on this side of the football. That distinction has to go to the versatile Percy Harvin, who was a handful both in the backfield and on the outside. Other key contributors include freshmen tailbacks Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps and senior wideout Louis Murphy.
While the offense gets a great deal of the attention in Gainesville, the Florida defense was often responsible for putting the offense in position to score. The Gators ranked second in the country this season with 24 interceptions and made the biggest plays when it counted the most, ranking first in the nation with 12 interceptions against Top-25 foes. Overall, the Gators allowed just 279 yards of total offense per game, showing equal disdain for the run and the pass. The team amassed 33 takeaways in all and also excelled at getting after opposing QBs, with 32 sacks.
The Gators defense will certainly face their toughest challenge to date, as Oklahoma comes in as the hottest offensive team in the country. The numbers are mind-boggling on the year, with the Sooners ranking 19th nationally in rushing and third nationally in passing, resulting in a national-best 54 ppg. Oklahoma also has a Heisman winner running the show, as sophomore Sam Bradford beat out Tebow for the coveted award this season. Bradford was indeed remarkable this year, completing nearly 70 percent of his passes for a whopping 4,464 yards, with 48 TDs and just six interceptions.
The ground game definitely benefits from the prolific passing attack; however, the team will be without 1,000-yard rusher DeMarco Murray in this game due to injury. Oklahoma does have another workhorse in Chris Brown, who paced the Sooners with 1,110 yards and 20 rushing TDs.
The Oklahoma defense deserves some credit for the team's success this year as well. The Sooners stop unit has been especially stout against the run, limiting foes to just 106 yards per game. The pass defense has been more generous, allowing over 250 ypg. This is another "big play" defense, with Oklahoma amassing 32 takeaways and 42 sacks in 13 games.
To win the second national championship of the Stoops era, the Sooners must turn back the clock on its more recent January fortunes. They won the 2000 national championship at the Orange Bowl and won the Rose Bowl to close out the 2002 season. Yet ever since, it's lost back-to-back national championship games at the Sugar Bowl and Orange Bowl and, following a year out of the BCS, has lost the last two Fiesta Bowls to underdogs Boise State and West Virginia.
Numbers-wise, Oklahoma is 0-7 ATS (-15.1 ppg) in January Bowl Games since 1988 when not getting 10+ points with 24+ days rest, while Urban Meyer is 4-0 SU & ATS all-time in Bowl Games at Utah and Florida vs. opponents off a SU win.
The Sooners supporters will point to their season-ending streak and assume that their team can’t be stopped; however, ending the season on a hot streak of at least 4 spread-covering victories has set up Bowl underdogs and small favorites set up for failure under the conditions outlined in one of our NCAA Football POWER SYSTEMS, which states:
Play AGAINST a January Bowl team (not a favorite of more than 3 points) off SU & ATS wins allowing an average of 10+ points in its last 4 games.
Since 1989, these underdogs and small favorites have been a nightmarish 0-11 SU & ATS, losing outright by nearly 22 points per game and failing to cover the spread by more than 20 points per game on average!
Also, January Bowl underdogs of less than a TD have been over-rated after a spread win as a favorite of more than 10 points. The Sooners qualify for this POWER SYSTEM as well, which reads:
Play AGAINST a January Bowl underdog of less than 7 points off a SU & ATS win as a favorite of more than 10 points vs. an opponent not off a conference home SU win & ATS loss of 14+ points.
Since 1988, these teams are an ugly 0-13 SU (-17.9 ppg) & 0-13 ATS (-14.7 ppg). Oklahoma was the PLAY AGAINST team the last time this system active in the 2005 Orange Bowl here in Miami. The high-flying Sooners were buried by USC and failed to cover the spread as a small underdog by 35 points!
Meanwhile, after coming through as a Conference Championship Game favorite, Bowl favorites have continued to play well. That’s the situation that Florida is in and they are active for another Bowl POWER SYSTEM of ours that dictates:
Play ON a Bowl favorite of more than 3 points off a Conference Championship SU win as favorite of 4+ points (not an ATS loss of more than 4 points).
These teams are a perfect 9-0 SU & ATS ALL-TIME, winning outright by 19+ points per game and covering the spread by more than a dozen points per game on average. Last year’s National Championship Game was the most recent example, with an SEC team (LSU) playing close to home and clobbering Ohio State by 21 points as a 4-point favorite.
One of our Bowl Handicapping Strategies is to play ON a Bowl underdog or small favorite that is playing at home or close to home in state. Such teams thrive in familiar surroundings in front of a partisan crowd, and are less likely to be distracted by nearby attractions. Florida will enjoy a substantial home-field advantage in Miami.
This Florida team also has many veterans on the squad that know what it is like to not just play in this type of atmosphere, but to WIN with everything on the line.
The Sooners QB Sam Bradford can spray the ball around efficiently enough to keep pace into the second half, but as much as the Sooners try to spin it there's just no overcoming Murray's absence from the lineup. It's not a coincidence that Oklahoma's offense took flight down the stretch when Murray's knee was strongest and his production was peaking. Without that threat of a premier back in the lineup the Sooners simply cannot keep Florida's defense honest enough to keep pace on the scoreboard.
It’s not a coincidence that the more well-rounded teams tend to win national championships over the ones that are known for their high-powered offenses. Whether it’s Florida State losing to Oklahoma in the 2001 Orange Bowl, Miami having a hard time getting going against Ohio State in the 2003 Fiesta Bowl, Troy Smith and Ohio State getting shut down cold by Florida in the 2007 BCS Championship, or Jason White and the Sooners losing to LSU in the 2004 Sugar Bowl, teams that have the defense and special teams to go along with a good offense, if not an explosive one, win. That’ll be the case for Florida as the defense does just enough to give Bradford a hard time by swarming the receivers and keeping the big plays to a minimum. We expect to see a lot of what Ohio State’s defense did against Colt McCoy in the Fiesta Bowl for 59+ minutes, up until the game-deciding play, by letting Bradford make his throws before blasting the receivers to force several third down chances.
The Gators will find their usual balance offensively, and will dominate on special teams, to make it three in a row for the SEC with a solid SU & ATS win over the Sooners.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: FLORIDA 42 OKLAHOMA 28
Handicapper: Cajun Sports
South Alabama vs. UL Monroe (NCAAB) - 8:00 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: -6/-110 South Alabama Play Title: Cajun Sports CBB "Big Easy" 24-2 ATS!!!!
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
The Jags make the trip to Monroe Louisiana to the face Sun Belt Conference foe Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks on Thursday night. The Jags come into this game with a 9-6 SU record on the season while the Warhawks are 5-9 SU. The Jags are coming off a loss to Mid-Tennessee State and they have responded well in this situation even when they take to the highway. The Jags are 11-3 ATS as a road favorite off a home game. Jags are 7-1 ATS as a road favorite off a home loss. If they lost ATS in their last game and now installed as a road favorite they are 10-1 ATS. If the lost ATS at home in their last game they are now 7-0 ATS. The Jags are 7-1 ATS if they lost ATS in their last game and are now facing a conference opponent. Finally we have a CBB system that says to Play AGAINST CBB teams who average <=32% from behind the arc facing a defense that allows >=36.5% from the three-point line after a game shooting 57% or higher, allowing 43% or lower, 34-11 ATS since 1997. Lay the chalk with the South Alabama Jags as they get the win and cover.
GRADED SELECTION: 3* SOUTH ALABAMA -6
Handicapper: Cajun Sports
North Texas vs. Arkansas LR (NCAAB) - 8:00 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: 4/-105 North Texas Play Title: Cajun Sports CBB "Reverse" Winner 33-10 ATS!!
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
The Eagles travel to face Sun Belt Conference opponent Arkansas-Little Rock on Thursday night at the Stephens Center. North Texas checks in with an 8-6 SU record on the year while the Trojans have posted a record of 9-5 SU. Little Rock is 6-2 SU at home this season but only 2-6 ATS. North Texas is as a road underdog over the last two seasons. ALR is 6-16-3 ATS off a road loss in their last game and now installed as a favorite. If they lost that game ATS and are a favorite in their next game they are 4-13-4 ATS. We also have a CBB System that tells us to Play ON CBB underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points with a team allowing 77+ points per game on the season, after a combined score of 155 points or more 3 straight games, 33-10 ATS the last five seasons. Take the points here as the North Texas Eagles surprise the Trojans and get the straight up win.
GRADED SELECTION: 3* NORTH TEXAS +4
Handicapper: Cajun Sports
California vs. Washington State (NCAAB) - 10:00 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: 2/-113 California Play Title: Cajun Sports CBB Key Momentum Winner 45-3 ATS!!
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
The Golden Bears make the trip north to face PAC 10 foe Washington State Cougars on Thursday night at the Friel Court at Beasley Coliseum. Cal is 13-2 SU and 9-2 ATS on the year including 5-0 SU and 4-0 ATS their last five games overall. In conference play so far this season the Cal Bears are 2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS. The Cougars are 8-5 SU and 4-7 ATS this year including 2-3 SU and 2-3 ATS their last five games. Their conference record is 0-1 SU and ATS. Washington State is 0-7 ATS versus teams that are outscoring their opponents by 12+ points per game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. The Cougars are 1-10 ATS after 2 or more consecutive “Unders” over the last 2 seasons and 0-6 ATS in home games after scoring 55 points or less the last two years. Cal is 16-6 ATS in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons and 15-6 ATS in road games after a conference game the last three years. Cal is 66-42 ATS when playing against a team with a win percentage of 60% to 80%. Cal is 5-0 ATS after going “Over” in their last game and are now facing a conference opponent with a line range of pk to 3 points. Take the point(s) here as Cal continues their winning streak against conference opponents.
GRADED SELECTION: 3* CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS +2
Handicapper: Cajun Sports
Minnesota U vs. Iowa (NCAAB) - 7:00 PM EST Bonus Play
Pick: Point Spread: 2.5/-104 Minnesota U Play Title: Cajuns CBB Big 10 Complimentary Selection
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
Carver-Hawkeye Arena will be the site on this Big 10 clash between the host Iowa Hawkeyes and the visiting Minnesota Golden Gophers. The Hawkeyes enter tonight’s contest off a SU win over Indiana on Saturday as a home favorite of 13 points, 65 to 60 failing to cover the number. The Gophers are also off a SU win on Saturday as they defeated Ohio State at home 68 to 59 as a four-point home favorite.
Minnesota will put one of the Big 10’s most balanced teams on the floor tonight. They rank near the top of the Big 10 in scoring, averaging 73.1 points per game and this has been accomplished despite the fact they only have one player that ranks in the top 25 of the Big 10 Conference in scoring. They are led by Lawrence Westbrook who is averaging 13 points per game on the year.
The Gophers are only allowing their opponents to score 62.0 points per game and this to teams that average 70.5 points per game on the year. Minnesota averages 67.1 possessions with an efficiency rating of 108.9. They lead the Big 10 Conference in steals with a 9.1 average. The Gophers are 3rd in the conference in total rebounds with 39.8 and they have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.3.
In the Gophers win on Saturday over the Buckeyes twelve players saw action with ten of those playing at least ten minutes. Head Coach Tubby Smith has been known for this type of rotation and it has worked for him in the past and appears to be working for his Gophers team now. In fact most teams have played a weak non-conference schedule but the Gophers do have a quality win already this season as they defeated the Louisville Cardinals in Glendale Arizona back on December 20th, winning 70 to 54 as a nine-point underdog.
Iowa on the other hand has struggled against the above average non-conference opponents as well as Big 10 foes that they have faced so far this season. The Hawkeyes lost to West Virginia 87 to 68 as a 9.5 point underdog, Boston College 57 to 55 as an 8 point underdog and to Ohio State 68 to 65 as an 8 point underdog.
Iowa is averaging 64.7 points per game and they are allowing 55.9 points per game which places them in the top 10 in the country in scoring defense. They only average 57.5 possessions per contest with an efficiency rating of 112.4. The Hawkeyes average 30.9 in total rebounds and allow their opponents 31.7 rebounds per game. Their assist to turnover ratio is 1.10 on the season.
This bureau believes the Gophers will be successful in dictating the tempo and pace to which this game will be played. The fact that Tubby uses so many of his players in each game has begun to pay dividends and they should be able to handle this Hawkeye defense on Thursday night.
The Gophers have proven they can win at Carver-Hawkeye Arena posting a 7-1 ATS record there since 1997. We also note that the Hawkeyes struggle in the roll of favorite with a record of 75-103 ATS. Iowa is 17-37 ATS off a home win versus a conference rival and 11-31 ATS off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite since 1997. They are 18-40-2 ATS if they are off a SU home win in their last game and are now installed as a favorite. If they lost that home game ATS their record is 8-26 ATS and if they are now a home favorite their record is 2-13 ATS.
With significant support both fundamentally and technically we will back the visitor here as the Minnesota Gophers go on the Big 10 road and get the straight up win.
Projected Final Score: Minnesota Gophers 70 Iowa Hawkeyes 67
