Kanesline
(POD)
01/08/09
NCAAF (college football)
FOX Channel
BCS Championship Game
Oklahoma Sooners
at Florida Gators
Projected Spread:
Florida Gators by 6
Projected Total: 72
Projected Score:
Oklahoma Sooners 33
Florida Gators 39
Pick: Take 3 point buy OVER 66.50
System Pick: Florida Gators moneyline -215
Trends to Watch:
The OVER is 6-1 in the Florida Gators last 7 games in a bowl
game. Also, the OVER is 5-0 in the Oklahoma Sooners last 5 games on grass.
NBA
TNT
New York Knicks at Dallas Mavericks
Projected Spread: Dallas Mavericks by 4
Projected Total: 204
Projected Score:
New York Knicks 100
Dallas Mavericks 104
System Pick: Take New York Knicks +8
System Pick: Take UNDER 212
Trend to Watch:
The New York Knicks are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road
underdog of 5 to 10.5 points.
System Picks
Basketball
01/08/09 NCAAB Wright State Raiders +10
01/08/09 NCAAB Iowa Hawkeyes -1.50
01/08/09 NBA New York Knicks +8
01/08/09 NBA New York Knicks/Dallas Mavericks
UNDER 212
(POD)
01/08/09
NCAAF (college football)
FOX Channel
BCS Championship Game
Oklahoma Sooners
at Florida Gators
Projected Spread:
Florida Gators by 6
Projected Total: 72
Projected Score:
Oklahoma Sooners 33
Florida Gators 39
Pick: Take 3 point buy OVER 66.50
System Pick: Florida Gators moneyline -215
Trends to Watch:
The OVER is 6-1 in the Florida Gators last 7 games in a bowl
game. Also, the OVER is 5-0 in the Oklahoma Sooners last 5 games on grass.
NBA
TNT
New York Knicks at Dallas Mavericks
Projected Spread: Dallas Mavericks by 4
Projected Total: 204
Projected Score:
New York Knicks 100
Dallas Mavericks 104
System Pick: Take New York Knicks +8
System Pick: Take UNDER 212
Trend to Watch:
The New York Knicks are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road
underdog of 5 to 10.5 points.
System Picks
Basketball
01/08/09 NCAAB Wright State Raiders +10
01/08/09 NCAAB Iowa Hawkeyes -1.50
01/08/09 NBA New York Knicks +8
01/08/09 NBA New York Knicks/Dallas Mavericks
UNDER 212
Rainman
5* Florida
FLORIDA -4 / 70’ over OKLAHOMA (7:15) It’s not often that I put out a big
play on this kind of game. National stage, two big-time teams, players really
psyched up and playing over their heads. But, we’re going to make an
exception here. Ole Miss did us a great favor when they beat the Gators.
What do you think the line would be in this game if the Gators were
undefeated at 13-0 coming into this one off waxing Alabama? 10 -12 pts
easy. The loss to the Rebels was a shocker- no doubt. And as it turned out,
the Rebels were a good team. So now, a lot of people think the Gators are
beatable by a good team. Lost in the Rebel win was the fact that Ole Miss
gained just 10 first downs and about 300 total yds in the game. Three
fumbles gave the Rebels a short field and they took advantage. With three
gimmees, the Rebs beat the Gators by 1. Not taking anything away from the
Rebels (they were my dark-horse pick to win the West at the beginning of the
season) but it took the perfect storm that afternoon in Gainesville.
Since the loss to the Rebs, the Gators have gone 9-0 SU and 8-0 ATS and
they’ve outscored their opponents by 277 pts at an average 47-12 per game.
That is pretty amazing, since 7 of the 8 went to bowl games this year. Tebow
comes in at 28 TDs and 2 INTs, 65% completions, 2518 yds passing and 577
rushing yds and 12 rushing TDs. Rainey, Demps and Harvin all average 8
yds per carry or more. Blinding speed at every skill position.
The Sooners come into the game with some pretty gaudy numbers
themselves. At least 35 pts in every game. Over 50 pts in 9 of the 13 games
played and they’ve run off 5 straight with more than 60. Bradford has thrown
for 48 TDs and 6 INTs- pretty incredible, while completing 68.3% of his
passes throwing for 4465 yds. As I said, pretty incredible numbers, except for
the fact they were against Big 12 defenses. All the talk this year has been
about the offenses of the Big 12 and it was easy to talk that way when you
looked at QBs McCoy, Daniel, Bradford, Reesing, Robinson and Griffin all
putting up gaudy numbers. Consider these numbers- the ones that really
count- in the Big 12, opponents only had to go 11.3 yds for every point
scored. In the SEC they had to go 17.1 yds for every point scored. That’s 5.8
yds per point more in the SEC than the Big 12 and that is an amazing
number. Look at the drop off in points in two recent games when the Big 12
played someone with a good defense. Texas averaged 41 ppg in Big 12
games. They put up 24 against a good Ohio St. defense. Texas Tech
averaged 44 ppg in Big 12 games. Ole Miss held them to 34. There’s no
question that the Big 12 had some very good offenses this season, but the
huge numbers that several of them put up were the result of playing some
really bad defenses.
No team will shut down the Sooners offense completely- just don’t expect to
see another 60 on the board. It’s not going to happen. Only Ole Miss scored
more than 21 pts against the Gators this season and as we’ve pointed out, 3
TOs greased the skids that afternoon. On the other hand, the Sooners have
not held any team to less than 21 pts since the Baylor game. The major
problem for the Sooners on defense in injuries- particularly at linebacker. The
main problems started when they lost all-world LB Ryan Reynolds to a knee
injury. DT Granger probably will miss with back problems. LB Box about 80%
with a knee injury as is DE Davis. The middle of the field will be open to the
Gators. The Sooners have plenty of offensive weapons but not having
DeMarco Murray returning kicks and in the backfield really hurts. Yes, I
know that Chris Brown led the Sooners in rushing but Murray
was the big play guy. In this setting, you need someone who can break
one from anywhere on the field and give you a TD you weren’t
expecting. The Gators have 3 of those players. Sooners maybe one.
For all the talk about the wide open Big 12 offenses this season, this is
really the first true spread offense the Sooners have faced this year. The
last one was West Virginia last year in the Fiesta Bowl. That one was a
48 - 28 win for the Mountaineers and it was clearly speed that made the
difference. Tebow’s not a speedster, but all of his playmakers around
him are and Meyer’s playbook is all about getting the ball to the right
people. The Gators put 31 up against the Bama defense in the SEC
Championship game. The Sooners’ D is nowhere close to the Bama D.
We looked at the overall yards per point numbers for the conferences
earlier. Now look at just the two teams here. On offense, the Gators
score a point for every 14.8 yds of offense. The Sooners have to go 18.2
yds for every point. On defense- the Gators make their opponents go
17.9 yds for every point while the Sooners give up a point for every 14.6
yds. Those are sizable differences and back up what I said about the Big
12 defenses overall. The Gators are better on both sides of the ball. To
further prove the point, the Gators wound up #8 in total defense and #5
in scoring defense while the Sooners came in at #63 in total defense
and #58 in scoring defense.
The prevailing thought is that the Sooners will run the ball right at
Florida, control the clock and keep the Gators off the field. That might be
a workable plan if you can keep the Gators out of the endzone when
they do get the ball. As soon as the Gators take the lead, the Sooners’
run game goes out the window and they’ll have to throw. That’s when
the speed of the Gators secondary will take over and you'll see Bradford
throw more INTs in this game than he did all year.
Now throw in a couple of intangibles: Stoops is 3 - 6 in Bowl Games at
Oklahoma and Meyer is 4 - 1. And what about that Heisman Trophy
jinx? Since 2000, here are your Heisman winners and their same year
bowl results: Chris Weinke- Loser. Eric Crouch- Loser. Carson Palmer-
Winner. Jason White- Loser. Matt Leinart- Winner. Reggie Bush- Loser.
Troy Smith- Loser. Tim Tebow- Loser.
Just kidding about the Heisman jinx… maybe. Overall team speed,
defense and special teams are decidedly in the Gators’ favor. There
may not be as big a difference, but the offense also favors the Gators.
I’m looking for something close to a repeat of last year’s Fiesta Bowl
score. FLORIDA 45 - 24 over OKLAHOMA.
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5* Florida
FLORIDA -4 / 70’ over OKLAHOMA (7:15) It’s not often that I put out a big
play on this kind of game. National stage, two big-time teams, players really
psyched up and playing over their heads. But, we’re going to make an
exception here. Ole Miss did us a great favor when they beat the Gators.
What do you think the line would be in this game if the Gators were
undefeated at 13-0 coming into this one off waxing Alabama? 10 -12 pts
easy. The loss to the Rebels was a shocker- no doubt. And as it turned out,
the Rebels were a good team. So now, a lot of people think the Gators are
beatable by a good team. Lost in the Rebel win was the fact that Ole Miss
gained just 10 first downs and about 300 total yds in the game. Three
fumbles gave the Rebels a short field and they took advantage. With three
gimmees, the Rebs beat the Gators by 1. Not taking anything away from the
Rebels (they were my dark-horse pick to win the West at the beginning of the
season) but it took the perfect storm that afternoon in Gainesville.
Since the loss to the Rebs, the Gators have gone 9-0 SU and 8-0 ATS and
they’ve outscored their opponents by 277 pts at an average 47-12 per game.
That is pretty amazing, since 7 of the 8 went to bowl games this year. Tebow
comes in at 28 TDs and 2 INTs, 65% completions, 2518 yds passing and 577
rushing yds and 12 rushing TDs. Rainey, Demps and Harvin all average 8
yds per carry or more. Blinding speed at every skill position.
The Sooners come into the game with some pretty gaudy numbers
themselves. At least 35 pts in every game. Over 50 pts in 9 of the 13 games
played and they’ve run off 5 straight with more than 60. Bradford has thrown
for 48 TDs and 6 INTs- pretty incredible, while completing 68.3% of his
passes throwing for 4465 yds. As I said, pretty incredible numbers, except for
the fact they were against Big 12 defenses. All the talk this year has been
about the offenses of the Big 12 and it was easy to talk that way when you
looked at QBs McCoy, Daniel, Bradford, Reesing, Robinson and Griffin all
putting up gaudy numbers. Consider these numbers- the ones that really
count- in the Big 12, opponents only had to go 11.3 yds for every point
scored. In the SEC they had to go 17.1 yds for every point scored. That’s 5.8
yds per point more in the SEC than the Big 12 and that is an amazing
number. Look at the drop off in points in two recent games when the Big 12
played someone with a good defense. Texas averaged 41 ppg in Big 12
games. They put up 24 against a good Ohio St. defense. Texas Tech
averaged 44 ppg in Big 12 games. Ole Miss held them to 34. There’s no
question that the Big 12 had some very good offenses this season, but the
huge numbers that several of them put up were the result of playing some
really bad defenses.
No team will shut down the Sooners offense completely- just don’t expect to
see another 60 on the board. It’s not going to happen. Only Ole Miss scored
more than 21 pts against the Gators this season and as we’ve pointed out, 3
TOs greased the skids that afternoon. On the other hand, the Sooners have
not held any team to less than 21 pts since the Baylor game. The major
problem for the Sooners on defense in injuries- particularly at linebacker. The
main problems started when they lost all-world LB Ryan Reynolds to a knee
injury. DT Granger probably will miss with back problems. LB Box about 80%
with a knee injury as is DE Davis. The middle of the field will be open to the
Gators. The Sooners have plenty of offensive weapons but not having
DeMarco Murray returning kicks and in the backfield really hurts. Yes, I
know that Chris Brown led the Sooners in rushing but Murray
was the big play guy. In this setting, you need someone who can break
one from anywhere on the field and give you a TD you weren’t
expecting. The Gators have 3 of those players. Sooners maybe one.
For all the talk about the wide open Big 12 offenses this season, this is
really the first true spread offense the Sooners have faced this year. The
last one was West Virginia last year in the Fiesta Bowl. That one was a
48 - 28 win for the Mountaineers and it was clearly speed that made the
difference. Tebow’s not a speedster, but all of his playmakers around
him are and Meyer’s playbook is all about getting the ball to the right
people. The Gators put 31 up against the Bama defense in the SEC
Championship game. The Sooners’ D is nowhere close to the Bama D.
We looked at the overall yards per point numbers for the conferences
earlier. Now look at just the two teams here. On offense, the Gators
score a point for every 14.8 yds of offense. The Sooners have to go 18.2
yds for every point. On defense- the Gators make their opponents go
17.9 yds for every point while the Sooners give up a point for every 14.6
yds. Those are sizable differences and back up what I said about the Big
12 defenses overall. The Gators are better on both sides of the ball. To
further prove the point, the Gators wound up #8 in total defense and #5
in scoring defense while the Sooners came in at #63 in total defense
and #58 in scoring defense.
The prevailing thought is that the Sooners will run the ball right at
Florida, control the clock and keep the Gators off the field. That might be
a workable plan if you can keep the Gators out of the endzone when
they do get the ball. As soon as the Gators take the lead, the Sooners’
run game goes out the window and they’ll have to throw. That’s when
the speed of the Gators secondary will take over and you'll see Bradford
throw more INTs in this game than he did all year.
Now throw in a couple of intangibles: Stoops is 3 - 6 in Bowl Games at
Oklahoma and Meyer is 4 - 1. And what about that Heisman Trophy
jinx? Since 2000, here are your Heisman winners and their same year
bowl results: Chris Weinke- Loser. Eric Crouch- Loser. Carson Palmer-
Winner. Jason White- Loser. Matt Leinart- Winner. Reggie Bush- Loser.
Troy Smith- Loser. Tim Tebow- Loser.
Just kidding about the Heisman jinx… maybe. Overall team speed,
defense and special teams are decidedly in the Gators’ favor. There
may not be as big a difference, but the offense also favors the Gators.
I’m looking for something close to a repeat of last year’s Fiesta Bowl
score. FLORIDA 45 - 24 over OKLAHOMA.
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RAS
Rotation #723 UL Lafayette (-1) 1.00 UNIT
Game start: 05:00pm PST Released at: 08:14am PST
PREVIOUS RELEASES
Rotation #740 UC Davis (-4) 1.00 UNIT
Game start: 07:00pm PST Released at: 08:10am PST
Rotation #764 Chattanooga (-6.5) 1.00 UNIT
Game start: 04:00pm PST Released at: 08:06am PST
Rotation #779 Weber State (+10) 1.00 UNIT
Game start: 07:00pm PST Released at: 08:02am PST
Rotation #723 UL Lafayette (-1) 1.00 UNIT
Game start: 05:00pm PST Released at: 08:14am PST
PREVIOUS RELEASES
Rotation #740 UC Davis (-4) 1.00 UNIT
Game start: 07:00pm PST Released at: 08:10am PST
Rotation #764 Chattanooga (-6.5) 1.00 UNIT
Game start: 04:00pm PST Released at: 08:06am PST
Rotation #779 Weber State (+10) 1.00 UNIT
Game start: 07:00pm PST Released at: 08:02am PST
Dr. Bob
FLORIDA (-5.0) 42 Oklahoma 32
National Championship
08-Jan-09 05:15 PM Pacific Time
Oklahoma averaged a record number of points this season (53.8 per game in 12 games against Division 1A opposition), but there is mounting evidence that the Big 12 South is an overrated division with worse defensive units than previously thought. My math model is very good at sorting out differences in conference strengths and my model mostly picked against the teams from the Big 12 South, as it correctly picked Mississippi to upset Texas Tech and Ohio State to upset Texas. Texas managed to beat the Buckeyes with a touchdown with 15 seconds remaining, but I easily won my bet on Ohio State and Mississippi scored at will in their win against Texas Tech. Ole Miss racked 47 points on 521 yards at 7.3 yards per play against Texas Tech, Oregon scored 42 points on 566 yards at 8.0 yppl against Big 12 South rep Oklahoma State, and Ohio State gained 379 yards at 5.9 yppl against Texas. Oklahoma’s offense is still great, but it certainly doesn’t look quite as amazing after seeing how the Big 12 South’s other teams performed defensively in the bowl games.
The Sooners averaged an incredible 7.2 yppl in 12 games against Division 1A opponents that would combine to allow 5.1 yppl to an average team and they scored 35 points against a TCU defense that I rate as the 2nd best in the nation behind USC. That 35 points was the lowest total of the year for the Sooners, who also scored 35 points against a good Texas defense, so the Sooners have proven that they can score a good number of points even against very good defensive teams. Oklahoma will be facing a very good defensive team tonight, as Florida yielded just 4.5 yppl to 12 Division 1A teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average defensive team. Florida didn’t face an offense as good as Oklahoma’s this season (because Oklahoma had my highest rated offense), but the Gators played at about the same level defensively against the good attacks of Mississippi, Georgia, and Alabama as they did overall and gave up an average of just 20.3 points in those 3 games. Oklahoma’s offense is not going to be quite as good without star RB DeMarco Murray, who will be missed in the passing game more than in the running game (#2 back Chris Brown is just as good), but I still rate the Sooners’ attack at 2.0 yppl better than average without Murray after I take out the stats of the backup quarterbacks – so Oklahoma does have a solid 0.8 yppl advantage over Florida’s good defense.
Florida’s offense is just as good as Oklahoma’s offense on a compensated yards per play basis, as the Gators averaged 7.0 yppl with Tim Tebow in the game while facing teams that would combine to allow 5.0 yppl to an average attack. Oklahoma’s defense, meanwhile, gave up 5.4 yppl to teams that would average 5.8 yppl against an average team, so the Sooners are just 0.4 yppl better than average defensively – giving Florida a 1.6 yppl advantage when they have the ball. Oklahoma’s defense has the same rating as the average of the other 12 Division 1A teams that the Gators faced this season and Florida averaged 43 points in those games and should score around that number in this game.
With both offenses rated about the same from a compensated yards per play perspective and Florida having a much better defense, the Gators are clearly the better team from the line of scrimmage. Oklahoma scored an incredible 53.8 points per game while Florida averaged 43.1 ppg in division 1A games, but the Sooners also averaged 79 plays in their hurry up offense while Florida averaged only 61 plays in the more traditional SEC. If the pace of Florida’s games, which averaged just 123.0 total plays, were as fast-paced as the Oklahoma games (150.9 total plays) then Florida would have averaged 53 points per game – so the Sooners are not really better offensively than the Gators no matter how you look at it. But, Florida is certainly better than Oklahoma defensively even if you look at points and adjust for pace. Florida is also much better in special teams, as the Sooners gave up 4 kickoff return touchdowns and are below average overall in special teams while Florida has good special teams. Oklahoma also isn’t likely to be +2 in turnover margin in this game, which is what they averaged during the season, as Florida averaged a +1.6 in turnover margin in D1A games. In fact, Florida actually has a projected edge in turnovers. Tim Tebow is less likely to get intercepted (he threw just 2 interceptions all season while Oklahoma quarterback Sam Bradford threw 6 and Florida’s defense had a 5.6% interception rate while Oklahoma’s defense had a 3.6% interception rate. A big part of Oklahoma’s turnover difference was purely luck, as the Sooners were +13 in fumble margin with just 2 lost fumbles all season compared to 15 fumbles recovered by their defense. Fumbles are 90% random in college football, so most of that +13 in fumbles is just random good luck that is not likely to project forward into this game. In other words, the fumbles should be about even in this game and Florida is less likely to throw interceptions. My math model actually projects Florida was a +0.4 turnover margin in this contest.
My math model favors Florida by 14 points in this game after putting it all together and I actually admit that is too high, as it does not take into account Oklahoma’s ability to convert 4th downs into first downs or touchdowns and to score in the redzone at a higher rate than normal. To take those factors into account I can use a compensated points model. I’ll use a simple version to give you the concept. Oklahoma out-scored their Division 1A opponents by an average of 27.4 points while facing a schedule of teams that was 7.7 points better than average, so they are +35.1 points better than average based on that. Florida, meanwhile, out-scored their 1A opponents by 30.8 points (43.1 to 12.3) while facing a schedule that was 5.8 points better than average, so the Gators are +36.6 points better than average using that simple analysis. Those numbers would favor Florida by 1 ½ points, which was the opening line on this game.
What the oddsmakers failed to take into account was pace, as Oklahoma wouldn’t have out-scored their opponents by as much as they did had they played their games at a normal pace, while Florida would have out-scored their opponents by more than they did had they not played at such a slow pace. I mentioned earlier that Oklahoma averaged 150.9 total plays per game and that Florida’s games averaged 123.0 total plays. My math model projects 140.2 plays for this game, so I want to adjust the point margins for the projected pace of this game. If Oklahoma had averaged 140.2 plays then they would have out-scored their opponents by 25.5 points rather than 27.4 points (27.4/150.9 x 140.2 = 25.5), which would make them +33.2 points when incorporating their +7.7 schedule strength. Florida, meanwhile, would have out-scored their opponents by 35.1 points had they averaged 140.2 plays per game instead of 123 total plays and that would make the Gators +40.9 after adding in their +5.8 schedule strength. So, instead of Florida being better by 1.5 points, the Gators would have been 7.7 points better than Oklahoma if each team averaged the 140 total plays that are expected in this game. That projection of Florida by 7.7 points does not take into account that Florida is expected to have a 0.4 turnover edge in this game rather than being 0.42 turnovers worse per game than Oklahoma. Oklahoma’s actual +2.0 TO margin per game would have been +1.86 had they played at a 140 play pace and Florida’s +1.58 TO margin per game would have been +1.80 had the Gators played at a 140 play pace, so part of the random turnover difference was already incorporated while adjusting the scoring margin for pace. But, the difference between my projected turnover margin of 0.4 turnovers in favor of Florida and the 0.06 pace-adjusted turnover margin in favor of Oklahoma is 0.46 turnovers, which is equivalent to 1.7 points in Florida’s favor. We can add that one to our previous pace-adjusted points margin prediction of Florida by 7.7 points, which gives us an adjusted scoring margin prediction of Florida by 9.4 points. That’s not as much as my math model prediction of Florida by 14 points, but it’s a more realistic number and is the minimum that I would favor the Gators in this game.
In addition to the line value, Florida coach Urban Meyer has a proven track record in big games and his teams at Bowling Green, Utah and Florida are an incredible 27-4 ATS against non-conference opponents, including 4-1 ATS in Bowl games. Oklahoma’s Bob Stoops, meanwhile, is 3-6 ATS in Bowl games, including 0-4 straight up and 0-4 ATS in his last 4 BCS Bowls.
I’ll consider Florida a Strong Opinion at -6 points or less.
Using a pace adjusted approach on total scoring would project 77 total points scored in this game and my math model projects 74 total points, so I’ll lean over 72 points or lower.
FLORIDA (-5.0) 42 Oklahoma 32
National Championship
08-Jan-09 05:15 PM Pacific Time
Oklahoma averaged a record number of points this season (53.8 per game in 12 games against Division 1A opposition), but there is mounting evidence that the Big 12 South is an overrated division with worse defensive units than previously thought. My math model is very good at sorting out differences in conference strengths and my model mostly picked against the teams from the Big 12 South, as it correctly picked Mississippi to upset Texas Tech and Ohio State to upset Texas. Texas managed to beat the Buckeyes with a touchdown with 15 seconds remaining, but I easily won my bet on Ohio State and Mississippi scored at will in their win against Texas Tech. Ole Miss racked 47 points on 521 yards at 7.3 yards per play against Texas Tech, Oregon scored 42 points on 566 yards at 8.0 yppl against Big 12 South rep Oklahoma State, and Ohio State gained 379 yards at 5.9 yppl against Texas. Oklahoma’s offense is still great, but it certainly doesn’t look quite as amazing after seeing how the Big 12 South’s other teams performed defensively in the bowl games.
The Sooners averaged an incredible 7.2 yppl in 12 games against Division 1A opponents that would combine to allow 5.1 yppl to an average team and they scored 35 points against a TCU defense that I rate as the 2nd best in the nation behind USC. That 35 points was the lowest total of the year for the Sooners, who also scored 35 points against a good Texas defense, so the Sooners have proven that they can score a good number of points even against very good defensive teams. Oklahoma will be facing a very good defensive team tonight, as Florida yielded just 4.5 yppl to 12 Division 1A teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average defensive team. Florida didn’t face an offense as good as Oklahoma’s this season (because Oklahoma had my highest rated offense), but the Gators played at about the same level defensively against the good attacks of Mississippi, Georgia, and Alabama as they did overall and gave up an average of just 20.3 points in those 3 games. Oklahoma’s offense is not going to be quite as good without star RB DeMarco Murray, who will be missed in the passing game more than in the running game (#2 back Chris Brown is just as good), but I still rate the Sooners’ attack at 2.0 yppl better than average without Murray after I take out the stats of the backup quarterbacks – so Oklahoma does have a solid 0.8 yppl advantage over Florida’s good defense.
Florida’s offense is just as good as Oklahoma’s offense on a compensated yards per play basis, as the Gators averaged 7.0 yppl with Tim Tebow in the game while facing teams that would combine to allow 5.0 yppl to an average attack. Oklahoma’s defense, meanwhile, gave up 5.4 yppl to teams that would average 5.8 yppl against an average team, so the Sooners are just 0.4 yppl better than average defensively – giving Florida a 1.6 yppl advantage when they have the ball. Oklahoma’s defense has the same rating as the average of the other 12 Division 1A teams that the Gators faced this season and Florida averaged 43 points in those games and should score around that number in this game.
With both offenses rated about the same from a compensated yards per play perspective and Florida having a much better defense, the Gators are clearly the better team from the line of scrimmage. Oklahoma scored an incredible 53.8 points per game while Florida averaged 43.1 ppg in division 1A games, but the Sooners also averaged 79 plays in their hurry up offense while Florida averaged only 61 plays in the more traditional SEC. If the pace of Florida’s games, which averaged just 123.0 total plays, were as fast-paced as the Oklahoma games (150.9 total plays) then Florida would have averaged 53 points per game – so the Sooners are not really better offensively than the Gators no matter how you look at it. But, Florida is certainly better than Oklahoma defensively even if you look at points and adjust for pace. Florida is also much better in special teams, as the Sooners gave up 4 kickoff return touchdowns and are below average overall in special teams while Florida has good special teams. Oklahoma also isn’t likely to be +2 in turnover margin in this game, which is what they averaged during the season, as Florida averaged a +1.6 in turnover margin in D1A games. In fact, Florida actually has a projected edge in turnovers. Tim Tebow is less likely to get intercepted (he threw just 2 interceptions all season while Oklahoma quarterback Sam Bradford threw 6 and Florida’s defense had a 5.6% interception rate while Oklahoma’s defense had a 3.6% interception rate. A big part of Oklahoma’s turnover difference was purely luck, as the Sooners were +13 in fumble margin with just 2 lost fumbles all season compared to 15 fumbles recovered by their defense. Fumbles are 90% random in college football, so most of that +13 in fumbles is just random good luck that is not likely to project forward into this game. In other words, the fumbles should be about even in this game and Florida is less likely to throw interceptions. My math model actually projects Florida was a +0.4 turnover margin in this contest.
My math model favors Florida by 14 points in this game after putting it all together and I actually admit that is too high, as it does not take into account Oklahoma’s ability to convert 4th downs into first downs or touchdowns and to score in the redzone at a higher rate than normal. To take those factors into account I can use a compensated points model. I’ll use a simple version to give you the concept. Oklahoma out-scored their Division 1A opponents by an average of 27.4 points while facing a schedule of teams that was 7.7 points better than average, so they are +35.1 points better than average based on that. Florida, meanwhile, out-scored their 1A opponents by 30.8 points (43.1 to 12.3) while facing a schedule that was 5.8 points better than average, so the Gators are +36.6 points better than average using that simple analysis. Those numbers would favor Florida by 1 ½ points, which was the opening line on this game.
What the oddsmakers failed to take into account was pace, as Oklahoma wouldn’t have out-scored their opponents by as much as they did had they played their games at a normal pace, while Florida would have out-scored their opponents by more than they did had they not played at such a slow pace. I mentioned earlier that Oklahoma averaged 150.9 total plays per game and that Florida’s games averaged 123.0 total plays. My math model projects 140.2 plays for this game, so I want to adjust the point margins for the projected pace of this game. If Oklahoma had averaged 140.2 plays then they would have out-scored their opponents by 25.5 points rather than 27.4 points (27.4/150.9 x 140.2 = 25.5), which would make them +33.2 points when incorporating their +7.7 schedule strength. Florida, meanwhile, would have out-scored their opponents by 35.1 points had they averaged 140.2 plays per game instead of 123 total plays and that would make the Gators +40.9 after adding in their +5.8 schedule strength. So, instead of Florida being better by 1.5 points, the Gators would have been 7.7 points better than Oklahoma if each team averaged the 140 total plays that are expected in this game. That projection of Florida by 7.7 points does not take into account that Florida is expected to have a 0.4 turnover edge in this game rather than being 0.42 turnovers worse per game than Oklahoma. Oklahoma’s actual +2.0 TO margin per game would have been +1.86 had they played at a 140 play pace and Florida’s +1.58 TO margin per game would have been +1.80 had the Gators played at a 140 play pace, so part of the random turnover difference was already incorporated while adjusting the scoring margin for pace. But, the difference between my projected turnover margin of 0.4 turnovers in favor of Florida and the 0.06 pace-adjusted turnover margin in favor of Oklahoma is 0.46 turnovers, which is equivalent to 1.7 points in Florida’s favor. We can add that one to our previous pace-adjusted points margin prediction of Florida by 7.7 points, which gives us an adjusted scoring margin prediction of Florida by 9.4 points. That’s not as much as my math model prediction of Florida by 14 points, but it’s a more realistic number and is the minimum that I would favor the Gators in this game.
In addition to the line value, Florida coach Urban Meyer has a proven track record in big games and his teams at Bowling Green, Utah and Florida are an incredible 27-4 ATS against non-conference opponents, including 4-1 ATS in Bowl games. Oklahoma’s Bob Stoops, meanwhile, is 3-6 ATS in Bowl games, including 0-4 straight up and 0-4 ATS in his last 4 BCS Bowls.
I’ll consider Florida a Strong Opinion at -6 points or less.
Using a pace adjusted approach on total scoring would project 77 total points scored in this game and my math model projects 74 total points, so I’ll lean over 72 points or lower.
<TABLE style="TABLE-LAYOUT: fixed" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width="85%" height="100%">Rocketman
Opinion.............oklahoma
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Opinion.............oklahoma
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Golden Contender
On Thursday night its another big offshore steam play.This time were looking at ARKY.ST.Game 733 at 8pm eastern.This game was hit hard offshore and has a bevy of solid angles in the game on top of the sharp money.Arky.st is a trendous 9-2 ats this year and 6- after allowing 60 or less,and 6-0 vs sub 500 teams.They defend better and shoot better.Back Arky st here to cash you out on Thursday night bol gc-
On Thursday night its another big offshore steam play.This time were looking at ARKY.ST.Game 733 at 8pm eastern.This game was hit hard offshore and has a bevy of solid angles in the game on top of the sharp money.Arky.st is a trendous 9-2 ats this year and 6- after allowing 60 or less,and 6-0 vs sub 500 teams.They defend better and shoot better.Back Arky st here to cash you out on Thursday night bol gc-
indiancowboy
CBB (POD): 4 Unit Play. #710. Take Iowa -2 over Minnesota (Thursday @ 7:05pm).
Note, that each day there is a NBA POD and a CBB POD. Thus, I do an NBA POD and a CBB POD each day usually. So, if you see an NBA play and a CBB play, it is a POD by default given that I have followed this prototype for well over a month.
This Week: 7-1: (5-0 run)
2-0 Wednesday.
Magic +2 Outright over Hawks (W)
Indiana +7.5 over Michigan (W)
3-0 Tuesday.
Hornets +8 Outright over Lakers (W)
Tulsa PK over Ball State (W)
Ohio State +9.5 over Michigan State (W)
2-1 Monday.
11 of 15 Winning Days (11-4) and 6 of 7 (6-1) Winning Days in the NBA.
January NBA POD: 5-1.
January CBB POD: 5-2.
3-0 this Week in College Basketball.
Winning 4 of 5 Weeks in Football.
How often have we seen the ranked team actually as an underdog on the road? Whenever you see a ranked team as an underdog on the road, it is usually very good reason to be wary of the play. I have followed Big 10 Basketball for a long time. After all, there are only three conferences that I follow exclusively and that is the Big 10, Big East and the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. I read the Bluebooks on these conferences each year, watch the recruiting class for each of these schools and note any changes in offense by the respective coaches. The Big10 in College Basketball has always been about holding serve at home. Why do you think we went with Indiana yesterday as they were showing improvement going back to Bloomington. Granted, we only covered by a bucket, but they were up by 17 at one point which goes to show that in a game of half-court offenses, shot selection, the presence of the crowd as the 6th man and getting to the free throw line make all the difference - and in particular, the defensive intensity of the home team is far greater. As per this game, note that Minnesota might be ranked 19th in the nation, but this team is 1-1 in conference play and has yet to go on the road for conference play. This is a young team for Tubby in many respects still. Yes, they have 13 wins. But, did you know that they have only played 1 true road game all year. That was against Colorado State a team they defeated by 1 point on the road. That's right, 1 point. Given that Colorado State is a top 175 team, this is not highly impressive. Remember, as well that although Iowa has four losses and are 11-4 this is misleading. After all, Iowa is a team that is ranked higher in many power rankings as a top 50 team while Minnesota is no better than a top 65 team. How can a team with four losses be rated higher in power rankings? Well, they have gone on the road to play many games while Minnesota has been playing their games at home. Remember, Iowa is road tested - at least far more road tested than Minny this year. This is the same Iowa team that went to Boston College and lost by 2 points. Did Minneosta do that? No, Minnesota played Colorado State. This is the same Iowa team that went on the road to Ohio State and lost by 3 points. Did Minny do that? No, they went on the road to play Colorado State. This is the same Iowa team that also played Drake on the road and even defeated a top 20 power ranking team in Kansas State in Las Vegas on neutral footing. Minny beat this team 63-50 last year and this time around Iowa hosts this team in their respective gym. This game is on ESPN2. So, in short, yes, Minnesota has 13 wins. But, only one of these wins was a true road game and they won that game by 1 point against a top 175 team. Now, Minny has a true road game, a true road conference game, against a team that has revenge, a team ranked higher in power rankings and a team that plays them on national television as the unranked team laying points which typically favors the unranked home team winning. Let's take the home team, in conference play in Big10 which is notorious for the home teams doing well, with revenge, who is far more tested this year playing much tougher competition such as Boston College, Drake, Ohio State and Kansas State as I see Iowa likely winning this by 4-7 points as FTs will come into play. Iowa is 9-0 at home and is 22nd in the nation in FT's shooting over 74% from the line. The Hawkeyes are 5-1 ATS at home when facing a team with a 60% winning or better at home. Iowa will pull through behind their crowd and the lack of road experience for Minnesota this year.
CBB (POD): 4 Unit Play. #710. Take Iowa -2 over Minnesota (Thursday @ 7:05pm).
Note, that each day there is a NBA POD and a CBB POD. Thus, I do an NBA POD and a CBB POD each day usually. So, if you see an NBA play and a CBB play, it is a POD by default given that I have followed this prototype for well over a month.
This Week: 7-1: (5-0 run)
2-0 Wednesday.
Magic +2 Outright over Hawks (W)
Indiana +7.5 over Michigan (W)
3-0 Tuesday.
Hornets +8 Outright over Lakers (W)
Tulsa PK over Ball State (W)
Ohio State +9.5 over Michigan State (W)
2-1 Monday.
11 of 15 Winning Days (11-4) and 6 of 7 (6-1) Winning Days in the NBA.
January NBA POD: 5-1.
January CBB POD: 5-2.
3-0 this Week in College Basketball.
Winning 4 of 5 Weeks in Football.
How often have we seen the ranked team actually as an underdog on the road? Whenever you see a ranked team as an underdog on the road, it is usually very good reason to be wary of the play. I have followed Big 10 Basketball for a long time. After all, there are only three conferences that I follow exclusively and that is the Big 10, Big East and the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. I read the Bluebooks on these conferences each year, watch the recruiting class for each of these schools and note any changes in offense by the respective coaches. The Big10 in College Basketball has always been about holding serve at home. Why do you think we went with Indiana yesterday as they were showing improvement going back to Bloomington. Granted, we only covered by a bucket, but they were up by 17 at one point which goes to show that in a game of half-court offenses, shot selection, the presence of the crowd as the 6th man and getting to the free throw line make all the difference - and in particular, the defensive intensity of the home team is far greater. As per this game, note that Minnesota might be ranked 19th in the nation, but this team is 1-1 in conference play and has yet to go on the road for conference play. This is a young team for Tubby in many respects still. Yes, they have 13 wins. But, did you know that they have only played 1 true road game all year. That was against Colorado State a team they defeated by 1 point on the road. That's right, 1 point. Given that Colorado State is a top 175 team, this is not highly impressive. Remember, as well that although Iowa has four losses and are 11-4 this is misleading. After all, Iowa is a team that is ranked higher in many power rankings as a top 50 team while Minnesota is no better than a top 65 team. How can a team with four losses be rated higher in power rankings? Well, they have gone on the road to play many games while Minnesota has been playing their games at home. Remember, Iowa is road tested - at least far more road tested than Minny this year. This is the same Iowa team that went to Boston College and lost by 2 points. Did Minneosta do that? No, Minnesota played Colorado State. This is the same Iowa team that went on the road to Ohio State and lost by 3 points. Did Minny do that? No, they went on the road to play Colorado State. This is the same Iowa team that also played Drake on the road and even defeated a top 20 power ranking team in Kansas State in Las Vegas on neutral footing. Minny beat this team 63-50 last year and this time around Iowa hosts this team in their respective gym. This game is on ESPN2. So, in short, yes, Minnesota has 13 wins. But, only one of these wins was a true road game and they won that game by 1 point against a top 175 team. Now, Minny has a true road game, a true road conference game, against a team that has revenge, a team ranked higher in power rankings and a team that plays them on national television as the unranked team laying points which typically favors the unranked home team winning. Let's take the home team, in conference play in Big10 which is notorious for the home teams doing well, with revenge, who is far more tested this year playing much tougher competition such as Boston College, Drake, Ohio State and Kansas State as I see Iowa likely winning this by 4-7 points as FTs will come into play. Iowa is 9-0 at home and is 22nd in the nation in FT's shooting over 74% from the line. The Hawkeyes are 5-1 ATS at home when facing a team with a 60% winning or better at home. Iowa will pull through behind their crowd and the lack of road experience for Minnesota this year.
