Service Plays Thursday 1/8/09 BCS Championship Game

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Masterbets

Selection: Florida/Oklahoma Under

The total for this game opened very high at 73 points and has since been bet down to 70 points at most sportsbooks and even 69.5 points with some bookies. It is still worth a small wager on the Under at this level, but only a small bet because our database of stats suggests that the right total for this clash is 68 points, so it's close.

The total is inflated because of Oklahoma's staggering offensive output this season, but note that they're playing against some of the worst defenses in the country. The Big 12 teams routinely concede more than 25 points per game, whereas Florida has a stingy defense that could change the complexion of this game.
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Lance's Lock

Overall record: 723-610-25

Current streak: 1 loss

Todays play: The Gators -5
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Joe Wiz's


comp :

Cal Poly SLO +2' over CS Fullerton


premium:

Joe Wiz CBB Oregon (+11.5)
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

WINNERS EDGE 1/8/09

CFB- Florida - 4 , 2 units
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DWAYNE BRYANT/BULLSEYE SPORTS


Florida vs. Oklahoma, BCS National Championship Game, 8:15 pm ET on FOX

I'm betting on: Florida -4

Bet this one now because I have a feeling the line will go up as we get closer to kickoff. Oklahoma is yet another of the potent passing offenses of the Big 12. But let's look at how these teams have fared when they had to step outside the Big 12 in these bowl games. Missouri managed just 23 points in regulation and needed OT to beat Northwestern (Big Ten). Oklahoma State lost to Oregon (PAC-10), 42-31. Texas Tech got manhandled by Ole Miss (SEC), 47-34. And Texas barely escaped with a win over Ohio State (Big Ten), 24-21.

Other than the loss to Ole Miss, Florida has held every opponent to 21 points or less. On the other hand, Oklahoma has given up 21 points or more NINE (9) times this year. Yes, OU did blow out a lot of opponents and gave up some garbage-time points, but Florida blew out their share of opponents and STILL held them to 21 or less. The Sooners offense will be just the next of the Big 12 potent passing attacks that comes to realize that they can't put up ridiculous numbers against the tough, speedy defenses of other conferences, especially the SEC.

Think Florida will be ready? QB Tim Tebow will be out to prove that he should've won his second straight Heisman Trophy instead of OU's QB, Sam Bradford. Having an OU defensive back say that Tebow would only be the fourth-best QB in the Big 12 will only add fuel to Tebow's fire. And Tebow's fire does NOT need any more fuel. After the loss to Ole Miss, Tebow vowed that his Gators would not lose again this season. Since that loss, Tebow has totaled 32 TD's and just 2 turnovers.

The Gators are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points, and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games. The Sooners are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 bowl games and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. SEC foes.

Take Florida -4



Obviously there's no such thing as a sure thing and I hate betting on the same side as the public, but I have to go with the Gators tonight. Should be a great game to watch. Best of luck to everyone.
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Lee Sterling's Pick Pack

Member Plays

Matchup: Florida at Oklahoma
Time: 8:15 PM EDT (Thu)

Play: Florida (-3.5 -110)
Line Source: GOLDENNUGGET
Posted on: January 7, 2009 @ 12:49:59 PM EST

Even though Oklahoma 's offense is very formidable they have pronounced weaknesses on defense and special teams. Florida which has almost no weaknesses should expose those weaknesses on Thursday night in the National Championship game. On top of that the vaunted Oklahoma offense will be without star RB Demarco Murray. Say what you want but he his the best pure RB on the field and also out of the backfield and his presence will be missed. Tim Tebow is on a mission since their loss at home to Ole Miss and also getting slighted by not receiving his 2nd straight Heisman Trophy. He'll exact his revenge on Thursday night. Take Florida here as they should win easily and win their second national title in three years.
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bryan Leonard's Pick Pack


Guaranteed Plays

Matchup: Florida at Oklahoma
Time: 8:15 PM EDT (Thu)

Play: Under (70.0 -110)Posted on: January 7, 2009 @ 10:25:53 AM EST

Florida & Oklahoma
Much of the hype for this game has centered on the offenses as the last two Heisman Trophy winners square off. With a total hovering around 70 points and up offense is projected to dominate the game. But while we respect both of these scoring units the value is clearly on the under on Thursday.

The fact of the matter is there was little defense played in the Big 12 this year. There has been rumblings for months that the officials were told by league representatives to ignore the offensive holding penalties in order to increase scoring. And whether that's the reason or not Big 12 games have gotten a great deal of publicity this season because of their offensive prowess. In fact, four of the top five candidates for the Heisman were from the Big 12 Conference.

There have been six bowl games played thus far from Big 12 representatives and those teams scored 16 points less than their projected points based on the closing line and total. That includes the extra seven points Missouri scored in overtime against Northwestern.

The SEC on the other hand is noted as a defensive conference and it's played out exactly that way this bowl season. There were eight SEC teams in action up to this point and they held the opposition to 36 points less than their projected points. So if we throw out the overtime touchdown by Missouri the Big 12 teams scored 23 points less than projection or 3.83 less points per game in regulation. By the same token SEC schools allowed 4.5 points less than projected per game.

As opposed to most of the teams Oklahoma has faced in Big 12 action Florida doesn't want to get into an offensive showdown with the Sooners. They know that they own the far superior stop unit therefore you can look for the Gators to run down the clock on offense and limit the Oklahoma offensive possessions.

Both teams enter this game less than 100% offensively as star running back Murray is out for Oklahoma and fleet Harvin is still banged up for the Gators. While he has said that he will play he admits that he isn't close to being at full strength. With a very long time frame to prepare defensively and based on how these conferences have done thus far in the bowls we fully expect a lower scoring game than the linesmakers project.


PLAY UNDER
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[Royal_Flush]

NY Reb

15* Florida

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jim Kruger's Pick Pack
Guaranteed Plays

Matchup: Florida at Oklahoma
Time: 8:15 PM EDT (Thu)

Play: Florida (-3 -110)
Line Source: BETUS
Posted on: December 9, 2008 @ 9:20:11 AM EST

Take Florida over Oklahoma

Florida is the better team. Especially on defense. Their speed on defense cannot be surpassed in the country. Oklahoma can obviously score, 54.0 points per game, #1 in the nation. However, Florida is #3 at 45.15 ppg. The Gators also played against better defensive teams than OU with ten opponents ranked in the top 40 in total defense. OU’s average opponent’s defensive ranking was #77 with seven of their opponents ranking 86th or lower out of the 119 FBS schools.

Nine of the past ten BCS champions have had a top-10 scoring defense. The only one who was not in the top ten was LSU last year at #17. However, they did rate a #3 ranking in total defense. OU is #57 in scoring defense, 65th in total defense. Florida is ninth in total defense, fifth in scoring defense.

The argument can be made that OU with their hurry-up offense gave other teams more opportunities on the field. That is obviously true as OU’s opponents ran 922 plays, 70.9 per game, 24th in the nation. Gator foes ran an average of 63.5 plays per game, #96. A more telling stat is the yards per play each defense gave up. Florida allowed 4.40 ypp, #9 in the FBS. OU came in 46th giving up 5.06 ypp.

If that argument is made on defense, the offensive numbers should also be looked at. The Gators ranked 114th with 61.5 plays per game. OU ran more plays per game than any team, 79.7. OU averaged 7.05 yards per play, Florida 7.19.

Both teams are very solid in taking care of the football with the Sooners ranking #1 in the land in turnover margin and Florida right behind them at #2. Florida ranked #2 in the nation in pass defense efficiency with a 94.17 rating and a INT to TD ratio of 24-10. OU was #41 with a 117.14 rating and a INT/TD ratio of 17/20.

OU’s Sam Bradford led the country in passing efficiency with a 186 quarterback rating. Tebow was #5 at 176. Last year they were #1 and #2 respectively. Bradford had 6 INT’s in 448 pass attempts, a superb 1.23% INT rate. Tebow did even better with just two interceptions in 268 PA’s, a .75 rate. Tebow is like a fullback that can throw. He is a dual threat at any time. Florida should have back Percy Harvin at full strength from his ankle injury.

Florida also has the superior running attack averaging 5.96 yards per carry and ranking 11th in the country at 229.77 yards per game. OU’s rushing game is also good, 4.77 ypc for 205.54 ypg, #19.

If you want trends: Florida is 15-3 ATS against teams with a winning record. Florida is 17-5 their last 22 on grass. Florida is 11-3 their past 14 non-conference games. Oklahoma is 7-1 ATS their last eight non-conference games.

Yes, OU can score points. But watching their game against Texas is hard to forget as the Horns in the second half ran over the Sooners and controlled the football, 37 minutes time of possession to 23. If you believe defense wins championships

Take the Gators
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

ATS Lock Club
3 Florida -5
5 New Mexico St -5
4 Boise St. -3
3 Denver (NCAA) +2

ATS Financial Package
3 Under 69.5
4 Louisianna Tech +7.5
3 Washington -6.5
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Joe Nelson's Pick Pack

Guaranteed Plays

Matchup: Florida at Oklahoma
Time: 8:15 PM EDT (Thu)

Play: Florida (-3.5 -110)
Line Source: GOLDENNUGGET
Posted on: January 7, 2009 @ 12:14:41 PM EST
A look at the total offensive numbers would lead you to backing Oklahoma but the these teams play at a significantly different pace and Oklahoma has the most impressive yardage numbers because they ran more plays than just about every other team. While Florida posted 442 yards per game and averaged 45 points per game, Oklahoma delivered averages of 562 yards per game and 54 points per game. On the other side of the ball Oklahoma ’s defensive numbers make the Sooners look mediocre to lousy but far more plays were run against the OU defense. Florida ’s defense was downright dominant, allowing fewer than 13 points per game with great numbers against the pass. The common denominator that led both of these teams to the national championship game was great turnover margins as Oklahoma was #1 in the nation and Florida #2 in the nation in overall turnover margin on the year. In the last eight games Oklahoma has allowed at least 21 points in every game, even against some of the worst teams in the Big 12. Both teams had incredible ATS numbers on the year and a strong case could be made for either coach, as both Urban Meyer and Bob Stoops have won national titles and played in plenty of big games. Oklahoma has failed in several big games in recent years however and although the SEC was down overall this year the recent success of SEC teams in the title game is hard to argue with. Florida has an incredible record as favorites, going 13-2-1 dating back to late last season and the Gators should kickoff as slight chalk in this match-up. Oklahoma has fared well in the underdog role however although that is not a common situation in recent years. Oklahoma has had the more impressive wins this season as teams like Tennessee, LSU, Georgia, and South Carolina did not finish up as strong as many expected but the Gators delivered in a strong non-conference schedule, pounding three bowl teams including two from the highly rated ACC. The Big 12 had a lot of headlines this season but many were suckered in to the big name QBs and the gaudy offensive numbers. The overall quality of the conference was not likely as strong as many thought and the Sooners had a very favorable set-up in most of its toughest games, including the lone loss versus Texas . The college football season rarely ends in conclusive finality and an Oklahoma loss will create speculation that they may not have deserved to be in this game, which would be a fitting end.
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Randall the Handle

BCS Championship Game @Dolphin Stadium - Miami, FL

Florida –3 over OKLAHOMA PINNACLE

I’m usually not in favor of spotting a potent offense any points but there are just too many reasons to like the Gators here with the first being that the game is practically in their backyard. Even more significant is that the Gators have a huge edge defensively and that’s going to the big difference in this contest. Both teams can score at will but playing on the road against a great defense with six weeks off gives Florida a significant edge. Furthermore, when Sooners QB Sam Bradford wins the Heisman as predicted, that week of non-stop media gluttony is not a good thing; just ask Tim Tebow, who put on six pounds that week following the announcement and lost to Michigan. I also like Urban Meyer in a big game over Bob Stoops. Stoops’ has a very average record in big games while Meyer is money. Call the offenses equal but the Gators have a decided edge on defense and coaching and that’s why the Gators will seal the deal. Play: Florida –3 (Risking 2.28 units to win 2).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

WUNDERDOG

CBB

Game: Wofford at Tennessee Chattanooga (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Wofford +7.5 (-110)

The Mocs have not displayed much this season as two of their four wins have come over teams below the ranks of Div-1, and a third a squeaker against Mississippi Valley State that they won by just four points. Their biggest problem has been lost possessions as they are committing close to 20 turnovers a game and as a team, have just 187 to 243 turnovers. Wofford has the same four wins, but losses have been to Georgia on the road by just one point in OT, undefeated Clemson, a one-loss Dayton team by just three and South Carolina, so they are certainly better than their record would indicate. Despite the much stronger competition, they are averaging five turnovers a game less than the Mocs. That should be a huge factor here and keep them at least close, so I'll take Wofford and the points here.

 

[SteveMcQueen]

Las Vegas Sport Picks

NCAAF:
3* Florida/Oklahoma o69
4* Florida -4

NBA:
1* Knicks/Mavs o208
2* Knicks +8

NHL:
3* Stars/Red Wings o5.5 -120

NCAAB:
2* Washington -6

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

WUNDERDOG

NHL

Game: Pittsburgh at Nashville (8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Nashville -112 (moneyline)

The Penguins opened the season like they were hungry to return to the finals, but they have fallen of late and are struggling. The Pen's have recorded just one win in their last six games and overall, they are just 4-7 in their last 11 on the road. They have been giving up almost four goals per game on the defensive end, but to make matters worse, the offense has gone stone cold as the Penguins have managed to put the puck in the net just 11 times in their last eight games or just over one per game. It is hard to trust a team at almost even odds to abruptly change that. Nashville has lost five straight themselves, but their problems don't seem to be nearly as severe as the Penguins right now. The Penguins have been 0-9 in their last nine games following a win and just 1-10 following one day’s rest. The Predators meanwhile are making hay against the Atlantic in their last 23 games where they are 16-5-2. The Predators get the call in this one

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

teddy june
<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->iowa

wright st
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[Leatherman]

Must mean Florida International since UF does not play CBB today.

I'm guessing it's that little football game they are playing today since the under given reflects that game too.

 

[bigboi808]

tout count-

Florida- 41
Oklah- 12

 

[ymmit2nd]

LPW Sports Forecast

25 Units Florida Gators

 

[ymmit2nd]

Doc

4 Unit Play. #709 Take Minnesota +2 over Iowa (7:00 pm ESPN 2)

4 Unit Play. #723 Take UL-Lafayette -1 over New Orleans (8:00 pm)

4 Unit Play. #743 Take California +1 over Washington State (10:00 pm)

5 Unit Play. #774 Take Montana -3 ½ over Northern Arizona (9:00 pm)