Brett Maverick Sports
Minnesota +2 CBB
We look to finish the last week of NCAA Football a perfect 3-0 as we cashed Utah over Alabama, then Ohio State + over Texas. We have a 20 Star Last Game of the Year tonight.
In College Basketball tonight we like Minnesota to outscore Iowa without Anthony Tucker who averages 17ppg in the lineup,or at least very limited. He has been suffering from Mono, and will be very weak. Iowa plays great defense, but Tubby goes 11 deep each game, and they score 73ppg with 6 players scoring the bundle,instead of 1 Star. The Gophers have already knocked off No.9 Louisville and No.24 Ohio State. Take the points here.
Our free pick yesterday cashed with the Jazz by 26 off our Alabama winner the day before. We also cashed a free winner from our website with the Celtics under the total. 4 straight free winners.
Minnesota +2 CBB
We look to finish the last week of NCAA Football a perfect 3-0 as we cashed Utah over Alabama, then Ohio State + over Texas. We have a 20 Star Last Game of the Year tonight.
In College Basketball tonight we like Minnesota to outscore Iowa without Anthony Tucker who averages 17ppg in the lineup,or at least very limited. He has been suffering from Mono, and will be very weak. Iowa plays great defense, but Tubby goes 11 deep each game, and they score 73ppg with 6 players scoring the bundle,instead of 1 Star. The Gophers have already knocked off No.9 Louisville and No.24 Ohio State. Take the points here.
Our free pick yesterday cashed with the Jazz by 26 off our Alabama winner the day before. We also cashed a free winner from our website with the Celtics under the total. 4 straight free winners.
Kelso
2008 PERSONAL BEST FOOTBALL CLUB
Thursday, January 08, 2009
BCS Championship
20 Units
Florida (-5½) over Oklahoma
8:17 PM -- FedEx BCS National Championship Game - Dolphin Sta
Comments: One could write a book on the explosive unstoppable offenses of both teams but that has been hashed over to the point of boredom. It is simply great skill players, great speed and quickness—power on power. With that said, my figures say there are only two edges in this game and Florida has both of them. First of all, this is basically a home game for Florida and two-thirds of the capacity crowd of 75,192 will be backers of Florida—definitely a factor in a game of this important. Carrying even more weight is the fact Florida does one thing Oklahoma does not—it plays defense. The Gators were 5th in the country in points allowed (12.8 points per game) 2nd in interceptions (24) and 8th in total yards allowed (279.3) Oklahoma was nowhere defensively, giving up an average of 24.5 points and 359.1 yards per game. In the end, the home field edge and a defense that stopped some of the best teams in the country will get the win and the cover. It also is significant the big bettors of the world started pouring it in on Florida Wednesday morning.
Mostly clear. Winds blowing from the Northwest at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 70.
20 Units
Florida/Oklahoma UNDER 69½ Points
8:17 PM -- FedEx BCS National Championship Game - Dolphin Sta
Mostly clear. Winds blowing from the Northwest at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 70.
10 Units
BCS Championship Parlay
Florida (-5½) over Oklahoma
Florida/Oklahoma UNDER 69½ Points
2008 PERSONAL BEST FOOTBALL CLUB
Thursday, January 08, 2009
BCS Championship
20 Units
Florida (-5½) over Oklahoma
8:17 PM -- FedEx BCS National Championship Game - Dolphin Sta
Comments: One could write a book on the explosive unstoppable offenses of both teams but that has been hashed over to the point of boredom. It is simply great skill players, great speed and quickness—power on power. With that said, my figures say there are only two edges in this game and Florida has both of them. First of all, this is basically a home game for Florida and two-thirds of the capacity crowd of 75,192 will be backers of Florida—definitely a factor in a game of this important. Carrying even more weight is the fact Florida does one thing Oklahoma does not—it plays defense. The Gators were 5th in the country in points allowed (12.8 points per game) 2nd in interceptions (24) and 8th in total yards allowed (279.3) Oklahoma was nowhere defensively, giving up an average of 24.5 points and 359.1 yards per game. In the end, the home field edge and a defense that stopped some of the best teams in the country will get the win and the cover. It also is significant the big bettors of the world started pouring it in on Florida Wednesday morning.
Mostly clear. Winds blowing from the Northwest at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 70.
20 Units
Florida/Oklahoma UNDER 69½ Points
8:17 PM -- FedEx BCS National Championship Game - Dolphin Sta
Mostly clear. Winds blowing from the Northwest at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 70.
10 Units
BCS Championship Parlay
Florida (-5½) over Oklahoma
Florida/Oklahoma UNDER 69½ Points
- All times Eastern
- Home team in CAPS
GREG SHAKER
NCAAF: Florida Gators at Oklahoma Sooners - Florida -3 -110
Game Date: 1/8/2009
Note: I was going to prepare a large writeup on this final College Football game of the year but there really is no reason to. We have learned that the Big 12 is not as good as expected. Texas struggled to beat Ohio State with a non-cover. Texas Tech was thrashed by Ole Miss. Mizzu and Oklahoma State both looked like mediocre teams as well. The fact is, the QB's of the Big 12 looked like average SEC Signal Callers. They are good, but their numbers are way overstated. One has to wonder what kind of numbers Stafford, Tebow, Wilson, and Snead would have had in that conference. The Gators are the Cream of the Crop in the SEC and that cream is a lot creamier than the Cream of the Crop in the Big 12. This team has 6 or 7 players that run a 4.3 forty. Most squads are lucky to have one that can do that. Harvin is 90% or better for this contest and that is a feather in our hat. But probably not needed. They certainly did not need him in the SEC Championship game. Sooner QB Bradford is going to get pressure all game, and he is going to throw up some wounded ducks. Both teams have been good not dealing out turnovers but Florida has accomplished their feat while playing in the defensive minded SEC. I do expect Oklahoma to make some big plays Thursday. They will score some points. They will not be able to sustain long drives. The Gators will have much success. Too much speed and too much talent. I did not go back and look at how many points the Big 12 Top Teams averaged in the regular season, and how much they have averaged in the Bowl Matchups. I do know that they have played what I consider average D's and they have not faired to well. Certainly Texas did play a good one and we saw them win a game, but manage well below their totals for the year. While I have been accused many times of being an SEC Homer Guy, I can assure you that this is not a Homer Play. You should have gotten this one SOONER than later, but it is not too late...
NCAAF: Florida Gators at Oklahoma Sooners - Florida -3 -110
Game Date: 1/8/2009
Note: I was going to prepare a large writeup on this final College Football game of the year but there really is no reason to. We have learned that the Big 12 is not as good as expected. Texas struggled to beat Ohio State with a non-cover. Texas Tech was thrashed by Ole Miss. Mizzu and Oklahoma State both looked like mediocre teams as well. The fact is, the QB's of the Big 12 looked like average SEC Signal Callers. They are good, but their numbers are way overstated. One has to wonder what kind of numbers Stafford, Tebow, Wilson, and Snead would have had in that conference. The Gators are the Cream of the Crop in the SEC and that cream is a lot creamier than the Cream of the Crop in the Big 12. This team has 6 or 7 players that run a 4.3 forty. Most squads are lucky to have one that can do that. Harvin is 90% or better for this contest and that is a feather in our hat. But probably not needed. They certainly did not need him in the SEC Championship game. Sooner QB Bradford is going to get pressure all game, and he is going to throw up some wounded ducks. Both teams have been good not dealing out turnovers but Florida has accomplished their feat while playing in the defensive minded SEC. I do expect Oklahoma to make some big plays Thursday. They will score some points. They will not be able to sustain long drives. The Gators will have much success. Too much speed and too much talent. I did not go back and look at how many points the Big 12 Top Teams averaged in the regular season, and how much they have averaged in the Bowl Matchups. I do know that they have played what I consider average D's and they have not faired to well. Certainly Texas did play a good one and we saw them win a game, but manage well below their totals for the year. While I have been accused many times of being an SEC Homer Guy, I can assure you that this is not a Homer Play. You should have gotten this one SOONER than later, but it is not too late...
THE SPORTS ADVISORS
BCS CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
(1) Florida (12-1 SU, 10-1-1 ATS) vs. (2) Oklahoma (12-1 SU, 10-2 ATS) (at Miami, Fla.)
Florida and Oklahoma, each armed with a Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback, square off for the first time ever with the winner at Dolphin Stadium claiming its second national title this decade.
Since suffering a stunning 31-30 home loss to Ole Miss as a 23-point home favorite Sept. 27, the Gators have gone 9-0 SU and 8-0 ATS, winning the nine contests by a combined score of 445-117 (average of 49-13 per game). After blowing out each of the first eight teams by at least 28 points, Florida was finally tested in the SEC Championship game against then-No. 1 Alabama on Dec. 6, rallying for a 31-20 victory as a 10-point favorite. In that contest, the Gators finished with a moderate 358-323 edge in total offense (142-136 in rushing), but they forced the game’s only turnover.
Like Florida, Oklahoma also closed with a flourish. After losing 45-35 to archrival Texas as a seven-point chalk on a neutral field in Dallas in mid-October, the Sooners won seven straight games (6-1 ATS), scoring no fewer than 45 points in any of those victories. In fact, Oklahoma set a modern record by scoring more than 60 points in its final five games, including a 62-21 drubbing of Missouri in the Big 12 Championship game. QB Sam Bradford locked up the Heisman with a 34-for-49, 383-yard, two-touchdown, no-interception effort versus the Tigers, as Oklahoma rolled up a whopping 627 yards (244 rushing) and allowed 354 (60 rushing).
Oklahoma will be trying for its eighth national championship, the last coming in 2000 when it upset Florida State 13-2 as a 10-point underdog in Miami in coach Bob Stoops’ first season with the school. Including the win over Florida State, Stoops is 4-5 SU and 3-6 ATS in bowl games with the Sooners, but only 1-4 SU and ATS the last five years. That includes a 21-14 loss to LSU in the 2003 BCS title game at the Superdome in New Orleans and a 55-19 loss to USC in the 2004 championship game at Dolphin Stadium.
Also, the Sooners have suffered back-to-back stunning losses in the BCS Fiesta Bowl the last two Januarys, first falling to Boise State 43-42 in overtime as a seven-point favorite in 2007, then getting blown out by West Virginia 48-28 as an eight-point chalk in 2008. On the bright side, OU is 3-1 SU and ATS as an underdog in bowl games under Stoops.
Florida has won two national championships in its history, including a 41-14 rout of Ohio State as a 7½-point underdog in the 2007 BCS Championship Game in Arizona. Coach Urban Meyer is 4-1 SU and ATS in bowl games in his collegiate career, including 2-1 SU and ATS since arriving at Florida. The one loss came in last year’s Capital One Bowl, when the Gators fell to Michigan 41-35 as a 10-point underdog.
On its way to its third consecutive Big 12 championship, Oklahoma went 5-1 against ranked foes (4-2 ATS), and all 12 of its victories came by at least two touchdowns. Florida went 5-0 SU and ATS against Top 25 opponents, and all 12 of its wins came by a minimum of 23 points.
The Sooners faced eight bowl-eligible teams during the season, going 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS, outscoring those opponents by 24 points per contest and outgaining them by an average of 157 yards per game. Florida won and covered nine of 10 against bowl squads, winning by 31 ppg and averaging a 159-yard edge in total offense.
Oklahoma’s record-setting offense led the nation in scoring (54 ppg), producing at least 35 points in every game. The Sooners ranked third in both total offense (562.1 ypg) and passing offense (356.5 ypg), and 19th in rushing (205.5 ypg). Meanwhile, Florida scored at least 30 points in all but one game this year (a 26-3 win over Miami, Fla.), and it finished ranked third nationally in scoring offense (45.2 ppg) and 18th in total offense (442.4 ypg). The Gators had a balanced attack, as it put up 229.8 rushing ypg (11th) and 212.6 passing ypg (60th).
Bradford, a sophomore, was the catalyst for Oklahoma, completing 68.3 percent of his passes for 4,464 yards, 48 TDs and just six INTs, and he also ran for five TDs. Bradford’s top WR targets are Juaquin Iglesias (69 catches, 1,092 yards, 10 TDs) and Jermain Gresham (58 catches, 888 yards, 12 TDs). OU also had a pair of 1,000-yard rushers in Chris Brown (1,110 yards, 20 TDs) and DeMarco Murray (1,002 yards, 14 TDs), however Murray will miss this game because of an injury suffered in the Big 12 championship game.
Gators QB Tim Tebow, who finished second to Bradford in Heisman balloting after winning the award last year as a sophomore, saw his stats fall off somewhat in 2008. He still completed 65 percent of his throws for 2,515 yards with 28 TDs and just two INTs, while rushing for 564 yards (3.7 per carry) and 12 scores. Tebow was one of five Gators who netted at least 538 yards on the ground. Other than Tebow, the biggest threat for Florida offensively is WR/RB Percy Harvin (1,135 yards from scrimmage, 16 combined rushing and receiving TDs). Harvin missed the SEC championship game with an injury, but is expected to start tonight.
The Gators own a significant defensive edge, giving up just 12.8 points and 279.3 total yards per game, including only 174 passing ypg – figures that rank fifth, eighth and 19th among all Division I-A teams. Florida allowed more than 21 points just once all season (Ole Miss) and held seven opponents to 10 points or fewer. Meanwhile, the Sooners were victims of playing in the high-scoring Big 12 and ended up allowing 24.5 points and 359 total yards per outing, including 253.1 passing ypg. Six of the final eight offenses that Oklahoma faced put up at least 28 points. However, both squads are equally strong against the run, with the Gators giving up 105.3 rushing ypg (3.3 per carry) and the Sooners yielding 106 rushing ypg (3.2 per carry).
Florida enters this title tilt on ATS hot streaks of 20-5-1 overall, 11-2-1 in non-conference play, 15-2-1 against teams with a winning record, 17-4-1 when playing on grass, 18-5-1 as a favorite and 4-0 when laying less than 10 points.
Oklahoma is on pointspread streaks of 6-0 overall, 7-1 in non-conference action, 4-0 as an underdog, 5-0 against winning teams, 10-1 after a SU victory, 20-7 following a spread-cover and 4-0 on grass. However, the Sooners have failed to cash in five straight games against the SEC and five straight bowl games in January.
Both teams are on a slew of “over” streaks. For the Gators, the “over” runs include 19-7 overall, 5-1 at neutral sites, 6-2 in non-conference action, 20-7 on grass, 6-1 in bowl games, 6-0 in January bowl games, 4-0 as a favorite and 15-3 versus winning teams. Oklahoma’s “over” streaks are 12-1 overall (including the last nine in a row), 4-1 at neutral sites, 10-2 in non-conference contests, 5-0 on grass, 2-0 in bowl games, 8-2 as an underdog and 7-0 against winning teams. The lone under trend for either team: The Sooners have stayed low in four of their last five against SEC opponents.
ATS ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA and OVER
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(22) Minnesota (13-1, 5-3-1 ATS) at Iowa (11-4, 6-3 ATS)
The Golden Gophers go on the road for just their second true road game of the season when they visit Carver-Hawkeye Arena in Iowa City to take on Iowa in a Big Ten matchup.
Minnesota is coming off a 68-59 home win over Ohio State on Saturday, cashing as a 3½-point favorite, improving to 5-1 ATS in its last six lined contests. The Gophers held the Buckeyes to 18-of-52 shooting from the floor and enjoyed a 35-27 rebounding edge.
Iowa opened Big Ten play with a 68-65 loss at Ohio State as an eight-point underdog on Dec. 31, but bounced back Saturday and beat Indiana 65-60, coming nowhere close to covering as a 13-point favorite. The Hawkeyes held the Hoosiers to 19-of-44 shooting from the field and got a 22-point, 11-rebound performance from Cyrus Tate, who made all six of his shots.
The host has won eight of the last nine meetings between these two, including Minnesota’s 63-50 victory as a 9½-point home chalk last season. The Gophers are 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings overall and 6-1-1 in their last eight trips to Iowa.
Minnesota is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven Big Ten contests, but it is 4-1 ATS in its last five after a straight-up win. The Hawkeyes are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games and 2-5 ATS in their last seven Thursday tip-offs. On the opposite side, Iowa is on ATS runs of 5-2 overall in lined action, 6-2 after a non-cover and 4-1 after a straight-up win.
For the Golden Gophers, the under is on runs of 37-18 overall, 35-16-1 after a spread-cover, 13-3 against Big Ten foes, 5-1 on the road and 9-2 after a straight-up win. Iowa has stayed under the total in five of six Thursday contests, but the Hawkeyes have topped the total in five of their last seven Big Ten contests. Finally, the over is 4-2 in the last six meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Stanford (11-1, 8-3 ATS) at Washington (10-3, 8-3 ATS)
The Huskies put their eight-game winning streak on the line when they host Stanford in a Pac-10 clash from Seattle.
Stanford split its conference-opening doubleheader last weekend, getting demolished at home by Arizona State on Friday 90-60 as a one-point favorite, but bouncing back Sunday to beat Arizona 76-60 and cash as a four-point chalk. The Cardinal are 3-0 (2-1 ATS) on the road this season, but the last time they went on the highway was Dec. 23, a 77-69 victory at Santa Clara as 4½-point favorites.
Washington’s eight-game winning streak (5-1 ATS) began with a seven-game homestand, then continued with Saturday’s 68-48 blowout of rival Washington State, with the Huskies cashing as three-point road ‘dogs. Washington is outscoring its visitors by an average of 20 points per game (79.8-59.
and limiting those opponents to 37.8 percent shooting.
The host has won nine of the last 10 meetings between these two, but the lone road win came for Stanford last January, a 65-51 rout as a two-point road chalk. A month later the Cardinal eked out an 82-79 home win over Washington but failed to cover as 11-point favorites. Washington is 4-1 ATS in the last five matchups, and the underdog is on a 10-4 ATS run in this series.
Stanford is on several ATS streaks, including 8-2 overall, 4-1 in Pac-10 action, 5-1 after a spread-cover, 6-1 against teams with a winning record and 7-2 after a straight-up win. Washington is on ATS runs that include 6-1 overall, 4-1 against Pac-10 teams, 4-1 after a spread-cover and 4-0 on Thursday.
The Cardinal are on “over” stretches of 17-7 overall, 9-1 on the road, 6-1 in conference play, 13-5 after a straight-up win and 8-1 on the road against teams with a winning home mark. The Huskies have topped the total in five of their last six conference contests, but otherwise the team is on “under” streaks of 4-1 overall, 23-9 at home, 19-7 after a spread-cover and 9-1 on Thursday. Lastly, the under is 9-2 in the last 11 matchups in this rivalry, including 6-0 in the last six battles in Seattle.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WASHINGTON
NBA
New York (13-20, 17-16 ATS) at Dallas (21-13, 15-19 ATS)
The Mavericks look to continue their recent success against the Knicks when they host this contest at American Airlines Arena.
Dallas is on a 6-0 tear against New York (5-1 ATS), and that includes a 124-104 overtime win as a 1½-point favorite at Madison Square Garden on Nov. 16. The Mavs have also won the last eight meetings against the Knicks in Dallas (6-2 ATS). Also in this rivalry, the favorite is on a 5-1 ATS run and the road team has cashed in four of the last five.
New York followed up Sunday’s stunning 100-88 upset win over Boston as a 10-point home underdog with Tuesday’s 107-99 setback at Oklahoma City as a two-point road favorite. The Knicks have dropped eight of their last 10 overall, and they’ve followed a seven-game ATS winning streak by going 2-6 ATS in their last eight.
The Mavericks barely held off the depleted Clippers on Tuesday, winning 107-102 but coming up short as a 12½-point home chalk. Dallas is 7-2 SU in its last nine, but 2-4 ATS in its last six.
Since splitting their first four roadies of the season, the Knicks are just 3-10 SU on the highway. However, despite Tuesday’s loss to the Thunder, they’re still on a 7-2 ATS tear as a visitor (7-1 ATS as an underdog). Meanwhile, the Mavericks are 17-6 SU at American Airlines Arena, but a woeful 4-13 ATS.
New York is on ATS hot streaks of 9-2 as an underdog, 7-0 as a ‘dog of five to 10½ points and 6-2 verses winning teams, but Mike D’Antoni’s squad is 2-6 ATS in its last eight against the Southwest Division. Dallas is mired in pointspread funks of 7-20 at home, 4-12 as a home chalk, 7-20-1 on Thursday and 3-8 against winning teams, but the Mavericks are 5-2 ATS in their last seven against the Atlantic Division and 4-1 ATS in their last five after a non-cover.
The over is 5-1 in the Knicks’ last eight against Southwest Division foes, but otherwise the team is on “under” streaks of 4-0 overall, 9-3 on the road, 9-4 as an underdog, 7-2 when playing on one day of rest and 5-0 on Thursday. The Mavs also sport a bevy of “under” streaks, including 10-4 overall, 5-2 at home, 5-1 against the Eastern Conference, 9-3 against the Atlantic Division, 37-17-2 as a favorite and 9-4 when playing on one day of rest. Lastly, the under is 4-2 in the last six series clashes between these squads.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW YORK and UNDER
BCS CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
(1) Florida (12-1 SU, 10-1-1 ATS) vs. (2) Oklahoma (12-1 SU, 10-2 ATS) (at Miami, Fla.)
Florida and Oklahoma, each armed with a Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback, square off for the first time ever with the winner at Dolphin Stadium claiming its second national title this decade.
Since suffering a stunning 31-30 home loss to Ole Miss as a 23-point home favorite Sept. 27, the Gators have gone 9-0 SU and 8-0 ATS, winning the nine contests by a combined score of 445-117 (average of 49-13 per game). After blowing out each of the first eight teams by at least 28 points, Florida was finally tested in the SEC Championship game against then-No. 1 Alabama on Dec. 6, rallying for a 31-20 victory as a 10-point favorite. In that contest, the Gators finished with a moderate 358-323 edge in total offense (142-136 in rushing), but they forced the game’s only turnover.
Like Florida, Oklahoma also closed with a flourish. After losing 45-35 to archrival Texas as a seven-point chalk on a neutral field in Dallas in mid-October, the Sooners won seven straight games (6-1 ATS), scoring no fewer than 45 points in any of those victories. In fact, Oklahoma set a modern record by scoring more than 60 points in its final five games, including a 62-21 drubbing of Missouri in the Big 12 Championship game. QB Sam Bradford locked up the Heisman with a 34-for-49, 383-yard, two-touchdown, no-interception effort versus the Tigers, as Oklahoma rolled up a whopping 627 yards (244 rushing) and allowed 354 (60 rushing).
Oklahoma will be trying for its eighth national championship, the last coming in 2000 when it upset Florida State 13-2 as a 10-point underdog in Miami in coach Bob Stoops’ first season with the school. Including the win over Florida State, Stoops is 4-5 SU and 3-6 ATS in bowl games with the Sooners, but only 1-4 SU and ATS the last five years. That includes a 21-14 loss to LSU in the 2003 BCS title game at the Superdome in New Orleans and a 55-19 loss to USC in the 2004 championship game at Dolphin Stadium.
Also, the Sooners have suffered back-to-back stunning losses in the BCS Fiesta Bowl the last two Januarys, first falling to Boise State 43-42 in overtime as a seven-point favorite in 2007, then getting blown out by West Virginia 48-28 as an eight-point chalk in 2008. On the bright side, OU is 3-1 SU and ATS as an underdog in bowl games under Stoops.
Florida has won two national championships in its history, including a 41-14 rout of Ohio State as a 7½-point underdog in the 2007 BCS Championship Game in Arizona. Coach Urban Meyer is 4-1 SU and ATS in bowl games in his collegiate career, including 2-1 SU and ATS since arriving at Florida. The one loss came in last year’s Capital One Bowl, when the Gators fell to Michigan 41-35 as a 10-point underdog.
On its way to its third consecutive Big 12 championship, Oklahoma went 5-1 against ranked foes (4-2 ATS), and all 12 of its victories came by at least two touchdowns. Florida went 5-0 SU and ATS against Top 25 opponents, and all 12 of its wins came by a minimum of 23 points.
The Sooners faced eight bowl-eligible teams during the season, going 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS, outscoring those opponents by 24 points per contest and outgaining them by an average of 157 yards per game. Florida won and covered nine of 10 against bowl squads, winning by 31 ppg and averaging a 159-yard edge in total offense.
Oklahoma’s record-setting offense led the nation in scoring (54 ppg), producing at least 35 points in every game. The Sooners ranked third in both total offense (562.1 ypg) and passing offense (356.5 ypg), and 19th in rushing (205.5 ypg). Meanwhile, Florida scored at least 30 points in all but one game this year (a 26-3 win over Miami, Fla.), and it finished ranked third nationally in scoring offense (45.2 ppg) and 18th in total offense (442.4 ypg). The Gators had a balanced attack, as it put up 229.8 rushing ypg (11th) and 212.6 passing ypg (60th).
Bradford, a sophomore, was the catalyst for Oklahoma, completing 68.3 percent of his passes for 4,464 yards, 48 TDs and just six INTs, and he also ran for five TDs. Bradford’s top WR targets are Juaquin Iglesias (69 catches, 1,092 yards, 10 TDs) and Jermain Gresham (58 catches, 888 yards, 12 TDs). OU also had a pair of 1,000-yard rushers in Chris Brown (1,110 yards, 20 TDs) and DeMarco Murray (1,002 yards, 14 TDs), however Murray will miss this game because of an injury suffered in the Big 12 championship game.
Gators QB Tim Tebow, who finished second to Bradford in Heisman balloting after winning the award last year as a sophomore, saw his stats fall off somewhat in 2008. He still completed 65 percent of his throws for 2,515 yards with 28 TDs and just two INTs, while rushing for 564 yards (3.7 per carry) and 12 scores. Tebow was one of five Gators who netted at least 538 yards on the ground. Other than Tebow, the biggest threat for Florida offensively is WR/RB Percy Harvin (1,135 yards from scrimmage, 16 combined rushing and receiving TDs). Harvin missed the SEC championship game with an injury, but is expected to start tonight.
The Gators own a significant defensive edge, giving up just 12.8 points and 279.3 total yards per game, including only 174 passing ypg – figures that rank fifth, eighth and 19th among all Division I-A teams. Florida allowed more than 21 points just once all season (Ole Miss) and held seven opponents to 10 points or fewer. Meanwhile, the Sooners were victims of playing in the high-scoring Big 12 and ended up allowing 24.5 points and 359 total yards per outing, including 253.1 passing ypg. Six of the final eight offenses that Oklahoma faced put up at least 28 points. However, both squads are equally strong against the run, with the Gators giving up 105.3 rushing ypg (3.3 per carry) and the Sooners yielding 106 rushing ypg (3.2 per carry).
Florida enters this title tilt on ATS hot streaks of 20-5-1 overall, 11-2-1 in non-conference play, 15-2-1 against teams with a winning record, 17-4-1 when playing on grass, 18-5-1 as a favorite and 4-0 when laying less than 10 points.
Oklahoma is on pointspread streaks of 6-0 overall, 7-1 in non-conference action, 4-0 as an underdog, 5-0 against winning teams, 10-1 after a SU victory, 20-7 following a spread-cover and 4-0 on grass. However, the Sooners have failed to cash in five straight games against the SEC and five straight bowl games in January.
Both teams are on a slew of “over” streaks. For the Gators, the “over” runs include 19-7 overall, 5-1 at neutral sites, 6-2 in non-conference action, 20-7 on grass, 6-1 in bowl games, 6-0 in January bowl games, 4-0 as a favorite and 15-3 versus winning teams. Oklahoma’s “over” streaks are 12-1 overall (including the last nine in a row), 4-1 at neutral sites, 10-2 in non-conference contests, 5-0 on grass, 2-0 in bowl games, 8-2 as an underdog and 7-0 against winning teams. The lone under trend for either team: The Sooners have stayed low in four of their last five against SEC opponents.
ATS ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA and OVER
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(22) Minnesota (13-1, 5-3-1 ATS) at Iowa (11-4, 6-3 ATS)
The Golden Gophers go on the road for just their second true road game of the season when they visit Carver-Hawkeye Arena in Iowa City to take on Iowa in a Big Ten matchup.
Minnesota is coming off a 68-59 home win over Ohio State on Saturday, cashing as a 3½-point favorite, improving to 5-1 ATS in its last six lined contests. The Gophers held the Buckeyes to 18-of-52 shooting from the floor and enjoyed a 35-27 rebounding edge.
Iowa opened Big Ten play with a 68-65 loss at Ohio State as an eight-point underdog on Dec. 31, but bounced back Saturday and beat Indiana 65-60, coming nowhere close to covering as a 13-point favorite. The Hawkeyes held the Hoosiers to 19-of-44 shooting from the field and got a 22-point, 11-rebound performance from Cyrus Tate, who made all six of his shots.
The host has won eight of the last nine meetings between these two, including Minnesota’s 63-50 victory as a 9½-point home chalk last season. The Gophers are 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings overall and 6-1-1 in their last eight trips to Iowa.
Minnesota is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven Big Ten contests, but it is 4-1 ATS in its last five after a straight-up win. The Hawkeyes are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games and 2-5 ATS in their last seven Thursday tip-offs. On the opposite side, Iowa is on ATS runs of 5-2 overall in lined action, 6-2 after a non-cover and 4-1 after a straight-up win.
For the Golden Gophers, the under is on runs of 37-18 overall, 35-16-1 after a spread-cover, 13-3 against Big Ten foes, 5-1 on the road and 9-2 after a straight-up win. Iowa has stayed under the total in five of six Thursday contests, but the Hawkeyes have topped the total in five of their last seven Big Ten contests. Finally, the over is 4-2 in the last six meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Stanford (11-1, 8-3 ATS) at Washington (10-3, 8-3 ATS)
The Huskies put their eight-game winning streak on the line when they host Stanford in a Pac-10 clash from Seattle.
Stanford split its conference-opening doubleheader last weekend, getting demolished at home by Arizona State on Friday 90-60 as a one-point favorite, but bouncing back Sunday to beat Arizona 76-60 and cash as a four-point chalk. The Cardinal are 3-0 (2-1 ATS) on the road this season, but the last time they went on the highway was Dec. 23, a 77-69 victory at Santa Clara as 4½-point favorites.
Washington’s eight-game winning streak (5-1 ATS) began with a seven-game homestand, then continued with Saturday’s 68-48 blowout of rival Washington State, with the Huskies cashing as three-point road ‘dogs. Washington is outscoring its visitors by an average of 20 points per game (79.8-59.
The host has won nine of the last 10 meetings between these two, but the lone road win came for Stanford last January, a 65-51 rout as a two-point road chalk. A month later the Cardinal eked out an 82-79 home win over Washington but failed to cover as 11-point favorites. Washington is 4-1 ATS in the last five matchups, and the underdog is on a 10-4 ATS run in this series.
Stanford is on several ATS streaks, including 8-2 overall, 4-1 in Pac-10 action, 5-1 after a spread-cover, 6-1 against teams with a winning record and 7-2 after a straight-up win. Washington is on ATS runs that include 6-1 overall, 4-1 against Pac-10 teams, 4-1 after a spread-cover and 4-0 on Thursday.
The Cardinal are on “over” stretches of 17-7 overall, 9-1 on the road, 6-1 in conference play, 13-5 after a straight-up win and 8-1 on the road against teams with a winning home mark. The Huskies have topped the total in five of their last six conference contests, but otherwise the team is on “under” streaks of 4-1 overall, 23-9 at home, 19-7 after a spread-cover and 9-1 on Thursday. Lastly, the under is 9-2 in the last 11 matchups in this rivalry, including 6-0 in the last six battles in Seattle.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WASHINGTON
NBA
New York (13-20, 17-16 ATS) at Dallas (21-13, 15-19 ATS)
The Mavericks look to continue their recent success against the Knicks when they host this contest at American Airlines Arena.
Dallas is on a 6-0 tear against New York (5-1 ATS), and that includes a 124-104 overtime win as a 1½-point favorite at Madison Square Garden on Nov. 16. The Mavs have also won the last eight meetings against the Knicks in Dallas (6-2 ATS). Also in this rivalry, the favorite is on a 5-1 ATS run and the road team has cashed in four of the last five.
New York followed up Sunday’s stunning 100-88 upset win over Boston as a 10-point home underdog with Tuesday’s 107-99 setback at Oklahoma City as a two-point road favorite. The Knicks have dropped eight of their last 10 overall, and they’ve followed a seven-game ATS winning streak by going 2-6 ATS in their last eight.
The Mavericks barely held off the depleted Clippers on Tuesday, winning 107-102 but coming up short as a 12½-point home chalk. Dallas is 7-2 SU in its last nine, but 2-4 ATS in its last six.
Since splitting their first four roadies of the season, the Knicks are just 3-10 SU on the highway. However, despite Tuesday’s loss to the Thunder, they’re still on a 7-2 ATS tear as a visitor (7-1 ATS as an underdog). Meanwhile, the Mavericks are 17-6 SU at American Airlines Arena, but a woeful 4-13 ATS.
New York is on ATS hot streaks of 9-2 as an underdog, 7-0 as a ‘dog of five to 10½ points and 6-2 verses winning teams, but Mike D’Antoni’s squad is 2-6 ATS in its last eight against the Southwest Division. Dallas is mired in pointspread funks of 7-20 at home, 4-12 as a home chalk, 7-20-1 on Thursday and 3-8 against winning teams, but the Mavericks are 5-2 ATS in their last seven against the Atlantic Division and 4-1 ATS in their last five after a non-cover.
The over is 5-1 in the Knicks’ last eight against Southwest Division foes, but otherwise the team is on “under” streaks of 4-0 overall, 9-3 on the road, 9-4 as an underdog, 7-2 when playing on one day of rest and 5-0 on Thursday. The Mavs also sport a bevy of “under” streaks, including 10-4 overall, 5-2 at home, 5-1 against the Eastern Conference, 9-3 against the Atlantic Division, 37-17-2 as a favorite and 9-4 when playing on one day of rest. Lastly, the under is 4-2 in the last six series clashes between these squads.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW YORK and UNDER
Smart Money
Florida vs Oklahoma
Play: Florida -3 / 2 units
Two explosive offenses Florida and Oklahoma go head to head in the national championship game this Wednesday night. Both have numerous attack weapons, and both have top notch pivots with the Sooners Sam Bradford and the Gators Tim Tebow orchestrating their respective attacks.
The difference maker however comes on the defensive side of the ball, where Florida is head and shoulders above Oklahoma's pedestrian stop unit. The Gators allow just 12.8 PPG this season, while the Sooners allowed 24.5 PPG on the season via 359.1 YPG , and 28.7 PPG away from home.
The Gators D ranked 5th in the nation, second with 24 interceptions and eighth with 279.3 yards a contest.
I know people who talk and bet these type of affairs, sound like broken records, and say the same thing over and over again. So I will not disappoint anyone, and will repeat the obvious, that being, that defense wins big games and championships, and once again this holds true key to which side comes out on top here.
The Sooners were smashed 55-19 by USC in the Orange Bowl in 2005 and were tripped up by a 21-14 count to LSU in the '04 Sugar Bowl, and I am betting another negative result will get added to that list after tonight.
Final notes & Key Trends: Florida is a perfect 7-0 ATS against an above ,500 team this season, winning SU by an average of 35.1 PPG. The Gators are also 7-0 ATS vs teams like Oklahoma that have outscored their opposition by 10 points or more per game, winning SU by an average of 25.4 PPG.
Projected score: Florida 41 Oklahoma 28
Florida vs Oklahoma
Play: Florida -3 / 2 units
Two explosive offenses Florida and Oklahoma go head to head in the national championship game this Wednesday night. Both have numerous attack weapons, and both have top notch pivots with the Sooners Sam Bradford and the Gators Tim Tebow orchestrating their respective attacks.
The difference maker however comes on the defensive side of the ball, where Florida is head and shoulders above Oklahoma's pedestrian stop unit. The Gators allow just 12.8 PPG this season, while the Sooners allowed 24.5 PPG on the season via 359.1 YPG , and 28.7 PPG away from home.
The Gators D ranked 5th in the nation, second with 24 interceptions and eighth with 279.3 yards a contest.
I know people who talk and bet these type of affairs, sound like broken records, and say the same thing over and over again. So I will not disappoint anyone, and will repeat the obvious, that being, that defense wins big games and championships, and once again this holds true key to which side comes out on top here.
The Sooners were smashed 55-19 by USC in the Orange Bowl in 2005 and were tripped up by a 21-14 count to LSU in the '04 Sugar Bowl, and I am betting another negative result will get added to that list after tonight.
Final notes & Key Trends: Florida is a perfect 7-0 ATS against an above ,500 team this season, winning SU by an average of 35.1 PPG. The Gators are also 7-0 ATS vs teams like Oklahoma that have outscored their opposition by 10 points or more per game, winning SU by an average of 25.4 PPG.
Projected score: Florida 41 Oklahoma 28
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