Service Plays Thursday 1/8/09 BCS Championship Game

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MARC LAWERENCE PLAYBOOK 16-16



BCS CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Dolphin Stadium • Miami, FL
Florida over Oklahoma by 6
How many times have we seen it before? Oklahoma lays waste to its
regular season opposition like Grant setting fi re to Atlanta on his march
to the sea, then the Sooners reach the postseason and lay a big, fat egg.
Hey, it was already bad enough for OU that this game will be played in
the fan-friendly confi nes of the Gators’ home state but then Sooner QB
Sam Bradford had to go and steal the Heisman Trophy from Florida’s Tim
Tebow. “We’re going to be ready,” promised Tebow, who was denied a
chance to join Ohio State’s Archie Griffi n as a two-time Heisman winner.
“We’ll use it as motivation just like (the loss to) Ole Miss. Why get over it?
To tell you the truth, it’s more motivating for my teammates… they’ll be
excited.” Regardless of such intangibles, you’d be hard-pressed to fi nd a
college team in America playing better football right now than either the
Gators or the Sooners (UF’s 10-1-1 ATS and OU’s 10-2 ATS marks were the
best in the land this year). Led by the prolifi c Bradford, Oklahoma scored
60 or more points in its last 5 games, an NCAA record, and became the fi rst
team ever to score over 700 points. Meanwhile, Urban Meyer is looking to
claim his second BCS championship in three years for Gator Nation, carrying
a record blemished only by a 1-point loss to Mississippi. However, even if this
one wasn’t for all the marbles, Florida’s ATS edges over OU in this matchup
are vastly superior. Ready? Meyer stands 30-3 SU and 24-4-1 ATS in his career
versus non-conference competition and SEC teams are also 9-1 SU and 8-2
ATS in their last 10 BCS Bowl appearances. By comparison, Oklahoma’s Bob
Stoops owns a lowly 7-27 ATS record when his team allows 27 or more points
(Florida averaged 45 PPG against fellow Bowlers in ’08) and BCS Bowl teams
like the Sooners that allow at least 22.4 PPG are 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS of late.
Oklahoma is also 2-4 SU and ATS in BCS Bowl games under Stoops (0-4 SU
and ATS L4) and BCS Bowlers that scored 35 or more in their previous game
(Oklahoma) are just 11-25 SU and ATS. Last but not least, Heisman Trophy
winning teams have failed to cash in on the hoopla, going just 7-19 ATS as
Bowlers since 1980. Whew! Though Florida’s high-octane offense dominates
the headlines, the Gator ‘D’ picked off a whopping 24 interceptions and held
3 of their fi nal 4 foes to season low – or 2nd low – yards. And lest we forget,
UF WR extraordinaire Percy Harvin, who missed the SEC Championship game
against Alabama, has declared himself 100% ready for this showdown with
the Sooners. In a battle between two head coaches with Ohio roots, Florida’s
80 YPG defensive edge and a huge disparity in fan support will be too much
for the Sooners to overcome. Gators chomp their way to the crystal trophy
at Dolphin Stadium tonight
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

The Edge Vegas Experts 1-6

Florida
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Brand X Sports, Mike Volpe Bowl Package 16-24

BCS Championship Game Thursday January 8
Florida Gators versus Oklahoma Sooners
Line Florida -3 Total 72

I know the Sooners are #1 but I really believe USC or Alabama could easily beat the Sooners on a neutral field. Oklahoma is a scoring machine but they have not played a defense even close to the Gators level.

Florida is grooving on being ranked #2 and is playing at home in Joe Robbie Stadium.

Tim Tebow may have lost out to Sam Bradford for the Heisman but Tebow had always said that the most important trophy is the National Champion Trophy.

Superman will get to raise that trophy over his head Thursday night.

5* Florida Gators -3
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NORTHCOAST POWER PLAYS 11 - 4

BCS CHAMPIONSHIP

Power Plays is calling for a second Gator championship in 3 years. Florida has a slight 478-447 yard edge but you won’t fi nd a bigger discrepancy in the special team rankings than in this bowl.
1★ FLORIDA 43 OKLAHOMA 39
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE GOLD SHEET 13-21

BCS TITLE GAME
OKLAHOMA (12-1) vs. FLORIDA (12-1)
Thursday, January 8 Night at Miami, FL (Grass Field)
*Florida 37 - Oklahoma 27—While the fatally-flawed BCS continues to court
controversy, it would be hard to argue that the convoluted system didn’t
produce a title game matchup this year that just about every college football fan
outside of Austin, Texas (and Salt Lake City?) can’t wait to see. And even a lot
of Longhorn & Ute fans are probably secretly looking forward to this clash of
one-loss juggernauts, a pair of torrid teams that have combined to cover 21 of
their 24 lined games this season. Oklahoma followed its setback to Red River
rival UT in early October with a stupefying display of offensive puissance down
the stretch, cracking the 60-point barrier in each of its last five games! And
2006 national champ Florida has been similarly dominant since its surprising
late-September home loss to Ole Miss, dragooning its next nine foes by an eyepopping
aggregate score of 445-117!
Would it be a shock if the underdog Sooners are able to ride their seeminglyunstoppable
offense (562 ypg) to a small upset? Hardly. Rarely have we seen
a college field general with more impressive control over an attack than OU’s
Heisman-winning QB Sam Bradford (48 TDP vs. only 6 ints.), who has the
receiving weapons & pass protection to torch the stoutest of stop units. Would
it be a big surprise if this game turns into an offensive shootout, with Bradford
and indomitable Gator QB Tim Tebow, the 2007 Heisman winner, trading points
in a last-team-with-the-ball-wins sort of scenario? Definitely not.
However, we believe that this game is likely to take a slightly different track.
It’s clear that the superior defense belongs to Florida, which has allowed more
than 21 points just once all season. Taking nothing away from the recordsetting
accomplishments of the Sooner offense, but OU is yet to run up against
any stop unit that has the overall talent and speed possessed by the Gators’
pugnacious platoon. Sure, even UF figures to have a tough time preventing the
balanced Sooner attack from moving the chains in the spacious middle of the
field. But converting yards into points might not come so easy for OU against
a Gator defense that has the quickness & depth up front to get some pressure
on Bradford and enough athleticism in the back 7 to blanket the Sooner
receivers in the tighter confines of the red zone. No, it’s actually Florida’s
offense—thanks to the relentless Tebow’s FB-like running near the goal line
and speedy WR/RB Percy Harvin’s nose for the end zone (he’s scored at least
one TD in each of his last 14 games and will be ready for action after sitting out
the SEC title game with a sprained ankle)—that will likely be most efficient at
cashing in drives for scores, giving the favored Gators a good shot at covering
the oddsmaker’s fair (although not insubstantial) impost.
(DNP...SR: FIRST MEETING)
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE SPORTS MEMO 17-16

BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
Oklahoma vs. Florida -3 O/U 72
Thursday, January 8, 8 pm ET FOX - Miami
Recommendation: Over


It’s a long wait for these teams and for college football fans until this game is played – 27 days from the time of this writing. However, the delay is not likely to stop the anticipated offensive fireworks from happening. The offenses for both teams will be by far the best units on the field in this title game. For Florida’s defense, the Oklahoma offense
is light years above anything they’ve seen thus far. Georgia’s attack was talented and diverse at the skill positions but the depth of game breaking personnel and the play of their makeshift offensive line is nowhere near what Oklahoma possesses.
In their game against the Bulldogs,
the Gators defense yielded 398 total yards. We project OU’s run/pass balance and dominant offensive line to assist in moving the football at a consistent
rate against the speed-oriented Florida defense. Oklahoma’s offensive front allowed only 11 sacks in 476 pass attempts while paving the way to 4.8 yards per carry with a stable of running backs. On the flip side, Florida’s defense is arguably the best unit that Oklahoma will have faced. Statistically, TCU is better and the Sooners chewed them up for 35 points and 436 total yards, but Florida has more speed and better talent. What the Gators don’t have is a top-tier defensive line. Florida’s pass rush could only muster one sack against the supremely physical Alabama front, and figures to be a non-factor against OU’s equally talented unit. Without a strong rush, Oklahoma, quarterback Sam Bradford figures to have success against the Gator’s young secondary. Manny Johnson, Juaquin Iglesias Ryan Broyles and Jermaine Grisham should all combine
for plenty of yardage and scoring. Every fundamental advantage for the Oklahoma offense exists for the Florida offense as well. The Gators team speed with wide receivers Percy Harvin, Louis Murphy and Riley Cooper will most surely overwhelm Oklahoma’s defense. Oklahoma’s defense has faced a multitude
of explosive spread-style offenses in Big XII play and all of them accumulated
significant yardage and points. Even more dynamic, quarterback Tim Tebow adds a dimension that the slew of gunslingers
from the Big XII doesn’t often utilize. Tebow will force Oklahoma
to respect the option running attack in addition to the short, intermediate and vertical passing games. The Gators have the whole package and there is no way for Oklahoma to simulate the speed and accuracy with which Florida runs its multi-pronged offense. We’ll will also factor in to the offensive projections the dynamic return games led by Florida speedster Brandon James and Oklahoma’s Ryan Broyles
and DeMarco Murray. Good field position and short drives set up by the return games should help our cause. While this may seem like the ultimate public-square play considering the amazing 11-1 trend to the “Over” in Sooners’ games, it is hard to ignore the fundamental
matchups. If we had to take a side, the Gators would get the nod but the value in our opinion, lies in the “Over” as all factors indicate
that we’ll get touchdown scores on virtually every possession.
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Nelly’s Green Sheet 30 -34 ( 19-13SIDES AND 11-21 TOTALS)

BCS CHAMPIONSHIP GAME 7:15 PM
Dolphin Stadium – Miami, Florida FOX
Florida (-3) Oklahoma (72)

A look at the total offensive numbers would lead you to backing
Oklahoma but the these teams play at a significantly different pace
and Oklahoma has the most impressive yardage numbers
because they ran more plays than just about every other team.
While Florida posted 442 yards per game and averaged 45 points
per game, Oklahoma delivered averages of 562 yards per game
and 54 points per game. On the other side of the ball Oklahoma’s
defensive numbers make the Sooners look mediocre to lousy but
far more plays were run against the OU defense. Florida’s defense
was downright dominant, allowing fewer than 13 points per game
with great numbers against the pass. The common denominator
that led both of these teams to the national championship game
was great turnover margins as Oklahoma was #1 in the nation and
Florida #2 in the nation in overall turnover margin on the year. In
the last eight games Oklahoma has allowed at least 21 points in
every game, even against some of the worst teams in the Big 12.
Both teams had incredible ATS numbers on the year and a strong
case could be made for either coach, as both Urban Meyer and
Bob Stoops have won national titles and played in plenty of big
games. Oklahoma has failed in several big games in recent years
however and although the SEC was down overall this year the
recent success of SEC teams in the title game is hard to argue
with. Florida has an incredible record as favorites, going 13-2-1
dating back to late last season and the Gators should kickoff as
slight chalk in this match-up. Oklahoma has fared well in the
underdog role however although that is not a common situation in
recent years. Oklahoma has had the more impressive wins this
season as teams like Tennessee, LSU, Georgia, and South
Carolina did not finish up as strong as many expected but the
Gators delivered in a strong non-conference schedule, pounding
three bowl teams including two from the highly rated ACC. The Big
12 had a lot of headlines this season but many were suckered in to
the big name QBs and the gaudy offensive numbers . The overall
quality of the conference was not likely as strong as many thought
and the Sooners had a very favorable set-up in most of its
toughest games, including the lone loss versus Texas. The college
football season rarely ends in conclusive finality and an Oklahoma
loss will create speculation that they may not have deserved to be
in this game, which would be a fitting end. FLORIDA 34-28

RATING 2: FLORIDA (-3)
RATING 3: ‘UNDER 72’
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Winning Points 15-17


FLORIDA over OKLAHOMA by 7
Championship games should bring the proper resumes to the table, and this one
certainly does. What Oklahoma has done offensively this season has been nothing
short of remarkable – the Sooners have scored at least 35 points in every game,
have topped 50 in nine of 13, and are on a run of five straight games in which they
have scored more than 60. Meanwhile Florida is playing for the BCS trophy for
the second time in three years, and in Tim Tebow has a leader that has a chance to
make a special place for himself in the annals of college football. But while the
offensive numbers for both teams are amazing, and the Tebow vs. Sam Bradford
QB battle brings heavyweight elements, we believe that there might be a significant
difference between these two on the defensive side of the ball, and that is
where we see this game being won. Florida may have as much speed coming out
of the defensive huddle as any team west of Southern Cal, with only Mississippi
able to score more than 21 points against the Gators this season (and note that the
Rebels only had 10 first downs and 325 yards in that game, taking advantage of
three recovered fumbles to help set up easy points). No team at this level is going
to shut down Bradford and the Sooners, but Florida has the talent to make the
occasional stop, and perhaps create some turnovers (in seven of 13 games they had
at least three takeaways). It is a different story when the Gators have the ball. While
big plays make the highlight reels, it is the ability of Tebow to run this offense
without miscues that makes them so difficult to defend, and in 10 of 13 games
they had one turnover or none. There is plenty of operating room against an
Oklahoma defense that has not held a team to less than 21 points since a win at
Baylor back on the first Saturday in October, with the Sooners neither dominating
against the run or the pass. Florida can spread that defense with playmakers at
every skill position, and then the reads of Tebow, and his precision with the ball,
take care of the rest. We will call for the Gators to be much more efficient on
offense throughout the course of the game, which means control of the flow, and
grasp of the trophy. FLORIDA 38-31.
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Logical Approach 31-29 ( 15-15 SIDES AND 15-15 TOTALS )

There is much to recommend BOTH teams in this game as their identical S/U and ATS records are a combined outstanding 24-2 and 20-4! Each has exceeded the lofty expectations set for them and both were playing their best and most dominant football as the regular season ended. Oklahoma scored at least 60 points in each of their last 5 games (and scored 58 in the game before the streak started). Florida held 12 of their 13 opponents to 21 points or less. Florida's better defensive stats may be due to the SEC having so many weak offenses this season - 6 of the 12 SEC teams ranked in the bottom 23 in total offense! Oklahoma faced many high powered offenses, thus making their defense appear weaker than it really was. 6 of the 12 Big 12 teams ranked in the top 12 nationally in total offense and another 4 teams ranked in the top 50. Both teams faced decent non-conference opposition as Florida defeated in-state rivals Miami and Florida State while Oklahoma defeated BCS Bowl bound Cincinnati and a very strong TCU. Both teams bring lengthy S/U and ATS winning streaks into this game. Both teams have rather spotty Bowl records in recent seasons although each has won a BCS Title within the past decade. Both teams have lost 4 of their last 6 Bowls. Since 2000 Oklahoma is 102-18 straight up; Florida 86-29. Both teams have Heisman Trophy winning QBs with Florida's Tim Tebow winning last season and OU's Sam Bradford this season. Both offenses rarely turn the ball over (Florida lost 11 turnovers, Oklahoma 9) while both defenses excelled at creating them (UF forced 33, OU 32). Both defenses excelled against the run (ranking # 16 and 18) and while Florida had the better pass defense statistically (#19 vs # 100) that was, as stated earlier, because they faced some incredibly weak offenses, especially passing offenses. Florida's biggest edge is in special teams which clearly could play a factor in what shapes up as a high scoring, fast paced game of big plays. Both teams have outstanding credentials and are well coached. In a game of this magnitude the underdog always has a chance to pull the upset as BOTH teams know how to win and have done so all season. Florida does have the advantage of playing in state and that is factored somewhat into their being favored. But in the end the key is that the Oklahoma defense is perceived as being weak and the Florida defense is perceived as being strong. But for the reasons mentioned above those perceptions may be erroneous or at least may have created more influence than is justified. The call is for Oklahoma to win 31-28, making

OKLAHOMA a 2 Star Selection
UNDER a 3 Star Selection .
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Spylock

Oklahoma
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Street Rosenthal (Premium)

Fla -5

Under 70
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP 21-10

BCS CHAMPIONSHIP

First meeting between these 2 football powers. OU will be playing for its 8th National Title while UF will try for #3. Both HC’s have a title under their belts with Meyer winning it 2Y ago (41-14, +7’ vs OSU) & Stoops (co- B12 COY) in ‘00 (13-2, +10 vs FSU). Meyer is 4-1 SU/ATS (2-1 w/UF) in bowls and the Gators will be playing in the postseason for an 18th consec yr (36th overall) but are 3-6 SU/ATS L9Y. Stoops is 4-5 SU & 3-6 ATS (3-1 SU/ATS as a bowl dog) guiding OU to its 10th str bowl (42nd overall) as the Sooners are just 1-4 SU/ATS the L/5Y incl B2B bowl losses as 7+ favs in each. OU has been to this venue twice under Stoops: winning it all in ‘00 and leaving with bad memories in the ‘04 Title gm losing 55-19 (+1) vs USC (outgained by 153 yds). Both have dominated bowl tms TY as UF was 9-1 SU/ATS outscoring foes by 31 ppg & outgaining them by 159 ypg while OU went 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS (+24 ppg & +157 ypg). The Sooners have 8 Sr starters but just 13 upperclassman (59%). UF comes in even younger with just 4 Sr starters & 10 upperclassman (45%). Overall there will be a combined 5 Fr starting here. Despite a strong contingent of OU fans, UF should have the crowd edge in their home state as the 5 hr/326 mile trip is nothing compared to OU’s 23 hr/1,451 mile journey. Way back in May we picked UF to win the Nat’l Title and while there may have been a little doubt early in the season, HC Meyer had a plan. Instead of throwing SEC Off POY Tebow out there to get banged up, he saved him for the crucial SEC gms and as a result, Tebow’s stats fell from 253 pass ypg, 895 rush LY to 194 ypg pass, 564 rush TY. After the Ole Miss loss, Tebow took control of the tm and promised that he would play as hard as he could & not lose another gm and he led them to the BCS Title gm. He actually had more 1st place votes in the Heisman balloting than Bradford despite finishing 3rd overall in his quest to become the 2nd two-time winner. UF finished #1 in the SEC in rush off (230 ypg, 6.0) as true Fr Demps (made Olympic trials in 100M), rFr Rainey (beat Demps in 40) and 1st Tm AA WR Harvin helped save Tebow from the pounding. Harvin missed the SEC Champ gm (ankle) but is exp to be healthy here. The UF OL avg 6’6” 315 and only all’d 16 sks (5.4%). OC
Mullen has taken the Miss St HC job but is exp to remain with the tm for this gm. UF ranks #2 in off and #6 in D. The D made massive strides TY especially the secondary which went from #72 with 3 Fr starters LY to #5 with 3 Soph’s & 1 Fr starting TY. The DL avg 6’3” 280 and did suffer some attrition with 3 bkups lost in the 2H of the yr but only all’d 105 rush ypg (3.3), 4th in the SEC. MLB Spikes flies to the ball earning 1st Tm AA honors TY. UF ranks #11 in our sp tms with AA/SEC Sp Tms POY RS James who is a threat to return anything he catches and has a great chance to add a KR TD to his resume in this one with OU’s poor kick coverage. P Henry had the #1 net in the SEC while K Phillips was solid despite no atts from long distance (42 yd was only miss). OU has won 3 str B12 Titles (6 overall) & is the only IA tm with 5 wins vs ranked foes. OU has been a scoring machine TY as they have our #1 rated off (54 ppg & 562 ypg) & have dropped an NCAA rec’d 60+ on 5 str opp’s (35+ in every gm). Their 702 pts scored is 3rd all-time (765 by Harvard in 1886). OU has eclipsed 500+ yds in 10 gms (77%) & 600+ in 4 (31%). OU is the 1st program in IA history with two 1,000+ yd rushers & a 4,000+ yd passer in the same ssn. Heisman Winner QB Bradford (B12 Off POY) is the leader of this offensive juggernaut & he led the NCAA in pass eff. He has thrown for 300+ yds 11x’s (85%) & has at least 2 TD passes in every gm (4+ in 8 gms). All-B12 RB’s Murray & Brown make up the nation’s best tandem (Murray did hurt his knee on the opening KO in the B12 Title gm, CS). WR Iglesias & TE Gresham (Mackey Finalist) provide excellent rec options. The OL avg 6’5” 311 (4 Sr starters) paving the way for 206 ypg (4.8). They are an NFL type unit with all 5 earning All-B12 accolades (C Cooper was the B12 OLOY) all’g just 11 sks (2.3%). The def is ranked #13. The DL avg 6’4”
273 (no Sr) all’g 106 ypg (3.2) & accounts for 80% (33.5) of the tms sks. DL McCoy usually demands a double tm to stop him. The LB unit was hit hard by inj as Box’s status for the bowl is ? & losing Reynolds in the RRR
was huge, but the depth is solid w/Lewis (B12 Def FrOY) & Clayton. DB Harris plays LB in some formations as well. The pass eff def is ranked #11 as OU has all’d 253 ypg (55%) with a 20-17 ratio. OU comes in at just #105 on ST & has all’d 4 KR TD’s, but keep in mind they have kicked-off 20 more times than any other tm. Two very deserving teams matchup and while each is known for their potent offense, Florida has the defensive
edge. The Sooners set an NCAA record finishing the season with 5 straight 60+ pt performances but since LB Reynolds went out in the Texas gm, they’ve all’d an avg of 31 ppg. Since Florida’s loss and Tebow’s vow to
carry this team they have won 9 gms (8-0 ATS) by an avg of 49-13 and that includes not having Harvin in the Championship gm. Florida also has one of the largest special teams edges in the postseason and it would be
no surprise if they finish with one or multiple ST TD’s. Florida wins their second National Title in three years.

FORECAST: FLORIDA BY 10
RATING: 4* FLORIDA
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THURSDAY, JANUARY 8
Time Posted: 8:00 p.m. EST (12/16)
Game 267-268: Florida vs. Oklahoma
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 119.963; Oklahoma 122.950
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 3; 77
Vegas Line: Florida by 3; 72
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma (+3); Over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with Duke (-14-1/2) Wednesday night.

Today it's Florida and the over. The deficit is 140 sirignanos.

 

[ymmit2nd]

ron raymond


RON RAYMOND'S FLORIDA VS. OKLAHOMA BCS CHAMPIONSHIP GOY


under 69.5

 

[JoeThePlumber]

Maddux Sports
Today's Free Pick is Fla & Oklahoma Over 69.5

 

[bobano]

Dave Malinsky

4* Florida

 

[cut-paste-hero]

Anyone have kelso or the booooj?

Use the request thread for request, this thread is not for requests

this is your request thread

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=651076

 

[GrumpyBear]

Thank you for ordering from WinningAngle.com your one source for sports information on the web.

Your Thursday Night Football Selection is:

Play on Oklahoma (+5) over Florida*
8:15 P.M. EST Kick-Off (Top NCAA Guarantee)

Oklahoma has won 13 of the last 14 games when the total posted is greater than 63 points and they have also won 7 consecutive games coming off four or more consecutive OVER the totals. Oklahoma has scored at least 60 points in five consecutive games and they are averaging over 54 points a game on offense this season.

Play on Oklahoma plus the points on Thursday

JUST AN FYI: BEATYOURBOOKIE, VSE, PRO SPORTS PLAYS ARE ALL ON OKLAHOMA AS WELL.

 

[Bankit]

NSA

CFB Oklahoma vs Florida 8:00 20* Oklahoma +5.5
CFB Oklahoma vs Florida 8:00 10* OVER 69.5