Mr. A's
Sunday November 9th, 1:00 p.m. est.
Seattle Seahawks (2-6) at Miami Dolphins (4-4) Miami Dolphins -8
The Seahawks have been horrible on both offense and defense, while the Dolphins have played well. Miami’s out of the ordinary offense performance and decent defense should be successful against the powerless Seahawks. Miami has won three of the last four meetings, going 4-0 against the spread.
Sunday November 9th, 4:15 p.m. est.
Indianapolis Colts (4-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2) Pittsburgh Steelers -4½
Indianapolis doesn’t like to play in Pittsburgh. The Colts have lost nine of the last 10 battles at Heinz Field. Manning and his crew will have a tough time against the Steelers’ defense, especially in the Steel City. Look for Pittsburgh ground assault to move the chains against the Colts horrendous run defense. No matter if injured Ben Roethlisberger or Byron Leftwich is at the helm. Pittsburgh is 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings.
NBA
Boston Celtics +2
Denver Nuggets -8½
Golden State Warriors +3½
Los Angeles Lakers -7½
Sunday November 9th, 1:00 p.m. est.
Seattle Seahawks (2-6) at Miami Dolphins (4-4) Miami Dolphins -8
The Seahawks have been horrible on both offense and defense, while the Dolphins have played well. Miami’s out of the ordinary offense performance and decent defense should be successful against the powerless Seahawks. Miami has won three of the last four meetings, going 4-0 against the spread.
Sunday November 9th, 4:15 p.m. est.
Indianapolis Colts (4-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2) Pittsburgh Steelers -4½
Indianapolis doesn’t like to play in Pittsburgh. The Colts have lost nine of the last 10 battles at Heinz Field. Manning and his crew will have a tough time against the Steelers’ defense, especially in the Steel City. Look for Pittsburgh ground assault to move the chains against the Colts horrendous run defense. No matter if injured Ben Roethlisberger or Byron Leftwich is at the helm. Pittsburgh is 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings.
NBA
Boston Celtics +2
Denver Nuggets -8½
Golden State Warriors +3½
Los Angeles Lakers -7½
Bob Balfe
NFL Football
Jaguars/Lions Under 43.5
The Lions come into this game with a new QB starting in Dante Culpepper. The problem for Culpepper is he doesn't have the slightest clue on the playbook and to make matters worst the Lions will have a new Center starting. This offense will have trouble just getting the ball off. The Jaguars have a lot of size on offense, but are not used to playing in domes and the Lions defense has more experienced in every matchup. Look for both teams to struggle to score. Take the Under.
Chargers -15 over Chiefs
San Diego has more talent in every position and are looking to pound on someone after a slow start to the season. Kansas City will not have a running game today with Johnson out. Look for San Diego to score early and often and to never look back. Kansas City is a young struggling defense and might be without some key starters today. San Diego should win in a landslide.
Giants/Eagles Over 43
This will be a great Sunday Night Game. This could decide who will end up taking the NFC East. The Giants have a physical mismatch on offense and should score a lot tonight. Philly has a healthy McNabb who would love nothing more than to get revenge from last years game in New York where he was sacked almost ten times. The Eagles are getting all of their pieces back on offense and should score a lot themselves. Look for both teams to score enough to take this over the total.
Houston +1 over Baltimore
The Ravens are banged up bigtime in their secondary. Houston has a ton of weapons on offense at home today. The Ravens have a young QB who will struggle on the road with not too many offensive weapons. McGahee is still a bit banged up for the Ravens and I do not see this unit scoring much today. Look for Houston to get a big home win.
College Football
No plays today.
NBA Basketball
Pistons -2 over Celtics
NFL Football
Jaguars/Lions Under 43.5
The Lions come into this game with a new QB starting in Dante Culpepper. The problem for Culpepper is he doesn't have the slightest clue on the playbook and to make matters worst the Lions will have a new Center starting. This offense will have trouble just getting the ball off. The Jaguars have a lot of size on offense, but are not used to playing in domes and the Lions defense has more experienced in every matchup. Look for both teams to struggle to score. Take the Under.
Chargers -15 over Chiefs
San Diego has more talent in every position and are looking to pound on someone after a slow start to the season. Kansas City will not have a running game today with Johnson out. Look for San Diego to score early and often and to never look back. Kansas City is a young struggling defense and might be without some key starters today. San Diego should win in a landslide.
Giants/Eagles Over 43
This will be a great Sunday Night Game. This could decide who will end up taking the NFC East. The Giants have a physical mismatch on offense and should score a lot tonight. Philly has a healthy McNabb who would love nothing more than to get revenge from last years game in New York where he was sacked almost ten times. The Eagles are getting all of their pieces back on offense and should score a lot themselves. Look for both teams to score enough to take this over the total.
Houston +1 over Baltimore
The Ravens are banged up bigtime in their secondary. Houston has a ton of weapons on offense at home today. The Ravens have a young QB who will struggle on the road with not too many offensive weapons. McGahee is still a bit banged up for the Ravens and I do not see this unit scoring much today. Look for Houston to get a big home win.
College Football
No plays today.
NBA Basketball
Pistons -2 over Celtics
Gina's
Sunday, November 9th, 1:00 p.m. est.
Tennessee Titans (8-0) at Chicago Bears (5-3)
Tennessee Titans strapping defense will overpower the Chicago Bears. Chicago won’t be able to outscore them. Go with the Titans to remain undefeated in the Windy City. Tennessee is 7-0-1 ATS in its last 8 games, 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road.
Tennessee Titans -3
Sunday, November 9th, 8:15 p.m. est.
New York Giants (7-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-3)
The Eagles’ defense is good. But the Giants crushing defense will torment Philly and their pass rush will ransack McNabb. Look for the Giants to control the clock and run, run and run. New York is 4-1 against the spread in their last five meetings with the Eagles and the total has gone ‘under’ in the last three meetings.
New York Giants +3
Under -43
Sunday, November 9th, 1:00 p.m. est.
Tennessee Titans (8-0) at Chicago Bears (5-3)
Tennessee Titans strapping defense will overpower the Chicago Bears. Chicago won’t be able to outscore them. Go with the Titans to remain undefeated in the Windy City. Tennessee is 7-0-1 ATS in its last 8 games, 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road.
Tennessee Titans -3
Sunday, November 9th, 8:15 p.m. est.
New York Giants (7-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-3)
The Eagles’ defense is good. But the Giants crushing defense will torment Philly and their pass rush will ransack McNabb. Look for the Giants to control the clock and run, run and run. New York is 4-1 against the spread in their last five meetings with the Eagles and the total has gone ‘under’ in the last three meetings.
New York Giants +3
Under -43
Johnny Guild
Sunday, November 9th, 2008
Carolina Panthers (6-2) at Oakland Raiders (2-6)
Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum - Oakland, California
Series Record: Oakland (2-1)
Home Record: Carolina 5-0; Oakland 1-3
Road Record: Carolina 1-2; Oakland 1-3
Last Meeting: 11/07/04 (Oakland, 27-24 at Carolina)
I wonder what Raiders owner Al Davis game plan is for head coach Tom Cable this week, following last week frightful performance, a 24-0 loss against Atlanta. The Raiders had possession of the ball for less than15 minutes and just 77 total yards. I believe they will improve against the Panthers this week at McAfee Coliseum, but that should be an easy task. Even so, the pitiable Raiders will have problems competing against Carolina. Look for the Panthers to easily run the ball against Oakland, rank 30th in rushing defense in NFL. The Panthers have not been profitable away from home, just 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games, but the Raiders are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 clashes against the NFC and a nasty 9-25 ATS in their last 34 at home. Take the superior Panthers to bring down the gloomy Raiders in their house.
1:00 PM EST. New Orleans (4-4) at Atlanta (5-3) Atlanta Falcons -1
1:00 PM EST. Tennessee (8-0) at Chicago (5-3) Tennessee Titans -3
4:05 PM EST. Carolina (6-2) at Oakland (2-6) Carolina Panthers -9.5
8:15 PM EST. NY Giants (7-1) at Philadelphia (5-3) Under -43
Sunday, November 9th, 2008
Carolina Panthers (6-2) at Oakland Raiders (2-6)
Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum - Oakland, California
Series Record: Oakland (2-1)
Home Record: Carolina 5-0; Oakland 1-3
Road Record: Carolina 1-2; Oakland 1-3
Last Meeting: 11/07/04 (Oakland, 27-24 at Carolina)
I wonder what Raiders owner Al Davis game plan is for head coach Tom Cable this week, following last week frightful performance, a 24-0 loss against Atlanta. The Raiders had possession of the ball for less than15 minutes and just 77 total yards. I believe they will improve against the Panthers this week at McAfee Coliseum, but that should be an easy task. Even so, the pitiable Raiders will have problems competing against Carolina. Look for the Panthers to easily run the ball against Oakland, rank 30th in rushing defense in NFL. The Panthers have not been profitable away from home, just 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games, but the Raiders are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 clashes against the NFC and a nasty 9-25 ATS in their last 34 at home. Take the superior Panthers to bring down the gloomy Raiders in their house.
1:00 PM EST. New Orleans (4-4) at Atlanta (5-3) Atlanta Falcons -1
1:00 PM EST. Tennessee (8-0) at Chicago (5-3) Tennessee Titans -3
4:05 PM EST. Carolina (6-2) at Oakland (2-6) Carolina Panthers -9.5
8:15 PM EST. NY Giants (7-1) at Philadelphia (5-3) Under -43
Cajun-Sports NFL Executive- Sunday
NFL: 35-17 ATS (SportsMonitor of Okla)
Time / Date: 8:15 EST / Sunday November 9 (NBC)
Game: New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Line Origin: BetCris @ 3:19 EST November 8
Grade / Prediction: 5* Philadelphia Eagles -3
Analysis:
The City of Brotherly Love will be the site of Sunday nights featured NFL game on NBC. The Philadelphia Eagles will host their Conference rival the New York Giants. Both Teams enter this contest off a win as the Eagles dismantled the Seahawks in Seattle last week and the Giants did the same to the Dallas Cowboys at home.
Philadelphia checks in with a 5-3 SU record on the season while the Giants lead the way with a 7-1 SU record.
A road win over a surging Eagles squad on Sunday night would further eliminate any doubt that the Giants go into the second half of the season as the favorites to get back to the Super Bowl.
Many already consider New York to be the favorite, being the defending champion and having the best record in the NFC. However, the Giants have played a relatively easy schedule - the eight teams they've faced have a 27-40 combined record.
Granted, New York dominated Dallas last Sunday in a 35-14 home win, but that came against a slumping Cowboys team missing star quarterback Tony Romo. Starting with this matchup against the NFC East rival Eagles, who have won three straight, not one of the Giants' final eight opponents currently has a sub-.500 record.
For the Giants to be successful on Sunday night they will need a big game out of QB Eli Manning. He has been struggling of late and reverting back to his old habits that at one time questioned his future as a Giant.
The Eagles are second in the NFC with 27 sacks and will look to keep the pressure on Manning after he succumbed to it last week. The Super Bowl MVP lost two fumbles, was sacked four times, had an interception returned for a touchdown and threw for a season-low 147 yards against Dallas.
Manning has a 78.5 quarterback rating over the past four weeks, failing to throw for 200 yards once. He was averaging 258.0 through the first four games while posting a 102.2 rating.
This is a tough spot for the Giants as they are coming off that emotional but satisfying win over Dallas last Sunday and the week before they had a tough game against the Steelers
The Eagles on the other hand had their bye three weeks ago then faced Atlanta at home and then won big at Seattle last week. This game sets up well for the Eagles on Sunday night.
Eagles QB Donovan McNabb has his full arsenal of weapons with Brian Westbrook and wide-outs Kevin Curtis and Reggie Brown who will be joining rookie sensation DeSean Jackson. McNabb is having an outstanding season, he is on pace to throw for over 4300 yards this season.
The Eagles have quietly won eight of their last eleven games and are traditionally strongest during the months of November and December under HC Andy Reid. In fact the Eagles are 48-20 during those two months dating back to 2001, which is the second best winning percentage in the NFL during that span.
The Eagles need this win to keep pace with the Giants in the toughest division in football.
The Eagles defense is in the Top Ten in the league and has only allowed two opponents to rush for more than 90 yards in a game. This is a key factor in this contest as the Giants rely on their rushing attack to make up for Eli’s struggles at the QB position. This will be the difference in tonight’s game.
We have three technical systems that are active for tonight’s contest. The first one tells us to Play AGAINST NFL Teams with an OHPA that is higher than their opponents and a Pass Defense Rating >=0 in their last three games. This system is 282-159 ATS and 20-6 ATS the last 26 times it was active. We should also Play AGAINST NFL Favs (or Dogs of <7 points) that have a higher OHPA than their opponent and their Gross Punt Yardage average is not more than 7 yards above their net. This system is 200-91 ATS since 1994. The final tech system says to Play AGAINST teams with a Pass Defense Rating over the last three games that is >=1 point higher than their season to date PDE and that have a season Turn-Over Differential of >0.5. This tech system is 60-15 ATS since 2004.
Finally we have two Power Systems that are also active for tonight’s game. From Game 9 on, Play AGAINST a 1-loss road underdog of 3-11½ points with a TOTAL of 32½-46 points not off a SU win of 32+ points in its last game, 13-0-1 ATS since 1987 and averages covering the spread by 12.4 points per game. In Weeks 2-12, play AGAINST a non-Monday team (not an underdog of more than 7 points) off a division SU win against a .500%+ foe last week vs. an opponent before a +.500% opponent next week, 17-0-1 ATS since 2004 and averages covering the spread by 12.7 points per game.
GRADED PREDICTION: 5* Philadelphia Eagles -3
Time / Date: 4:05 EST / Sunday November 9 (FOX)
Game: Carolina Panthers vs. Oakland Raiders
Line Origin: BetCris @ 3:50 EST November 8
Grade / Prediction: 4* Carolina Panthers -9.5
Analysis:
The Carolina Panthers head west to face the Oakland Raiders on Sunday afternoon. The Panthers are coming off their bye week and the Raiders are just “showing up” again on Sunday afternoon.
Carolina (6-2) headed into last week's bye after posting consecutive home victories, most recently rallying from a two-touchdown deficit for a 27-23 win over Arizona on Oct. 26.
The NFC South-leading Panthers return from their week off with the second-best record in the conference behind the New York Giants, who are 7-1.
Fox's team has held opponents to 15.9 points per game, but opens the second half following one of its worst defensive performances. The Panthers have allowed an average of 305.6 yards per game, but gave up a season-high 425 to Arizona. They also allowed 375 passing yards - their most since surrendering 396 versus the Cardinals on Oct. 9, 2005.
But Carolina overcame those inefficiencies behind quarterback Jake Delhomme, who went 20-for-28 for 248 yards and two touchdowns - including the go-ahead 65-yard pass to Steve Smith with 2 seconds left in the third quarter.
Carolina and Delhomme will face an Oakland defense which allows 373.9 yards per game to rank 28th in the NFL.
The Raider offense has been no better, with a league-low 13.4 points per contest and an average of 282.6 yards.
Oakland gave up a season-worst 453 yards, and managed just 77 of their own - its fewest in 37 years - in a 24-0 loss to visiting Atlanta on Sunday.
Quarterback JaMarcus Russell went 6-for-19 for 31 yards with an interception and was sacked four times - the worst start of his young career.
The Raiders fall into the category of “Towel Tossers”; these are teams that have given up on the season. They recently fired their head coach, their owner lost his mind years ago and they let a high priced player go this past week in DeAngelo Hall. A team in turmoil would be the kind way to reference this Raiders team.
NFL Teams are 55-29 ATS as a favorite the week after their bye. NFL Teams are 10-0 ATS as a road favorite the week after their bye. NFL Teams are 0-10 ATS as a home dog when their opponent is off their bye. The Raiders are 0-19-1 ATS when their dps was negative in their last three games. The Raiders are 1-12 ATS at home when they rushed for at least 50 yards fewer last week than their season-to-date average in a straight up loss. The Raiders are 0-11 ATS as a dog when their dps was negative in their last three games. The Raiders are 0-7 ATS as a dog the week after scoring fewer than 10 points at home.
Finally we have two NFL Power Systems that are active for today’s match up. Play ON a road favorite with a TOTAL of 34+ points off a BYE and a favorite SU win of 4+ points in its last game vs. an opponent not off a SU loss of 25+ points in its last game, 19-0 ATS since 1999 and has averaged covering the spread by 14.2 points per game. In Games 2-14, play AGAINST a home team off gaining less than 122 yards in its last game vs. an opponent not off a SU win of 25+ points or a Monday division home favorite SU loss in its last game, 20-0 ATS since 1992 and averages covering the spread by 10.6 points per game.
Our Technical Situation Report shows the Panthers in a positive situation that states to Play ON teams after Week 6 with a SU Win % >=0.500, coming off a bye week, preceded by a game in which they were favored and their current opponent has a below average ROF/POF in their last three games, 56-14 ATS since 1994 and a perfect 2-0 ATS this year!
We will back the visitor here as the “Towel Tossing” Raiders just show up and the Panthers are fighting for a conference championship.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* Carolina Panthers -9.5
Time / Date: 1:00 EST / Sunday November 9 (CBS)
Game: Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Detroit Lions
Line Origin: BetCris @ 7:52 EST November 8
Grade / Prediction: 4* Detroit Lions +6.5
Analysis:
The Jacksonville Jaguars take to the road again this week as they travel to the Motor City to face the winless Detroit Lions on Sunday afternoon. The Jags were also on the road last week facing a winless Cincinnati team and came away with a loss.
The Lions are hoping to repeat that performance on Sunday as they attempt to capture their first win of the season against the struggling Jaguars. It’s possible we may see newly acquired Daunte Culpepper at quarterback for the Lions as their current starter Dan Orlovsky sprained his right thumb in last week’s loss to Chicago.
It was another heartbreaking loss for the Lions, as they've had opportunities to win their last four games after getting blown out in their first four. The four most recent defeats have come by an average of 5.3 points after they dropped their first four by an average of 27.0.
The Jaguars have also been involved in close contests, as they're the only team in the league that has had all of its games decided by seven points or fewer this season.
Jags QB David Garrard has thrown 6 touchdowns and 5 interceptions on the season. He has thrown for 1771 yards and averages 202.6 yards per game with a 64.6 completion percentage this year.
Jacksonville failed to get its ground game going Sunday, as Jones-Drew was limited to 33 yards on 10 carries against Cincinnati. The running game has been key for the Jaguars, as they are averaging 176.7 rushing yards in their wins, but 70.0 rushing yards in their losses.
Detroit even though they are winless has continued to put forth the effort over their last four games and we see this game being no different. The Jags are struggling and the Lions are searching for their first win of the season and could possibly get that win today.
Our Technical Situational Report shows Detroit in a positive situation on Sunday. Play AGAINST NFL teams with a Rush Yardage Advantage of >20, facing an opponent with a Rushing Situation Rating <0.5, 95-32 ATS since 1994 and 9-2 ATS this season. Play AGAINST NFL teams with a Season Spread Average that is higher than their current spread and had 20 or more Total Plays For versus Against in their last game, 141-69 ATS since 1994 and 5-1 ATS this season. Play ON NFL teams coming off back-to-back SU losses with a Season Starting Field Position FOR average <29, 128-63 ATS since 1994 and 10-4 ATS this season.
With strong technical and situational support for the host we will back the Detroit Lions over the Jacksonville Jaguars as a 4* NFL Best Bet on Sunday.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* Detroit Lions +6.5
Time / Date: 1:00 PM EST / Sunday November 9 (CBS)
Game: Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Detroit Lions
Line Origin: BetCris @ 8:15 EST November 5
Grade / Prediction: 4* Jacksonville / Detroit Over 43
Analysis:
The Jacksonville Jaguars take to the road again this week as they travel to the Motor City to face the winless Detroit Lions on Sunday afternoon. The Jags were also on the road last week facing a winless Cincinnati team and came away with a loss.
The Lions are hoping to repeat that performance on Sunday as they attempt to capture their first win of the season against the struggling Jaguars. It’s possible we may see newly acquired Daunte Culpepper at quarterback for the Lions as their current starter Dan Orlovsky sprained his right thumb in last week’s loss to Chicago.
Culpepper had career highs in passing yards (4,717), touchdowns (39) and passer rating (110.9) in 2004 with Minnesota, but a knee injury the following year ended his career with the Vikings. The 6-foot-4, 265-pound Culpepper started 10 games over the 2006-07 seasons with Oakland and Miami, throwing seven touchdowns and eight interceptions.
Culpepper threw for 235 yards; one touchdown and one interception in his only career start against Jacksonville on Nov. 28, 2004, a 27-16 Minnesota victory.
Jags QB David Garrard has thrown 6 touchdowns and 5 interceptions on the season. He has thrown for 1771 yards and averages 202.6 yards per game with a 64.6 completion percentage this year. The Lions pass defense ranks 29th in the league allowing 247.1 yards passing per game.
Jacksonville failed to get its ground game going Sunday, as Jones-Drew was limited to 33 yards on 10 carries against Cincinnati. The running game has been key for the Jaguars, as they are averaging 176.7 rushing yards in their wins, but 70.0 rushing yards in their losses.
Their rushing problem should disappear today as they face a Lions defense that ranks 31st in the league against the run, allowing 161.8 yards per game. This should translate into scores for the Jaguars on Sunday.
The Jacksonville defense is not what it used to be as they are allowing 21.5 points per game which ranks 14th in the league. In fact they allow more yards per game, 335.2 (ranks 23rd) than their own offense averages with just 312 yards per game.
The Jags defense ranks 21st in the league in passing yards allowed with 220.9 and ranks 20th in rushing yards allowed per game with 114.4 yards per game. These stats may well be their demise not only on Sunday but for the season as they are struggling to make the playoffs.
The Lions defense is the worst overall in the league allowing over 400 yards of total offense per game this season and they are also the worst scoring defense in the league allowing an unbelievable 30 points per game on the year.
Two defenses that combine to allow over 51 points per game and currently seeing 44 and 44.5 across the board means we are getting solid line value on the Total in this game.
Technical support for our selection on the “Over” in this contest comes from both teams. The Jaguars are 12-1 Over as a favorite after playing on the road. The Jaguars are 17-3 Over after playing on the road. The League is 10-4 Over on the road the week after on the road in which they had at least 3 more penalties than their season-to-date average. The Jaguars are 15-4-1 Over since October 28, 2007. The Jaguars are 9-0 Over as a favorite versus any team with fewer wins after playing on the road. The Jaguars are 10-2 Over as a road favorite before playing at home in each of the next two weeks.
The Lions are 10-2-1 Over at home the week after on the road as a dog in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. The Lions are 8-1-1 Over at home the week after on the road in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. The Lions are 12-4 Over after a straight up loss as a dog.
Data base research has uncovered several strong technical systems that are active for today’ game. NFL Teams are 26-9 Over on the road when they suffered at least three sacks in each of the last two weeks. NFL Teams are 40-23-2 Over when they lost and failed to cover their last two games. NFL Teams are 15-4-1 Over since October 28, 2007 versus the Jaguars.
NFL Teams are 66-38-5 Over at home after playing as a dog. NFL Teams are 42-35-2 Over at home between away games. NFL Teams are 20-4 Over as a home dog after a loss as a TD+ dog in which they were winning at the end of the third quarter (Detroit). NFL Teams are 18-4 Over as a home dog after a loss on the road as a TD+ dog in which they were winning at the end of the third quarter (Detroit). NFL Teams are 21-8-1 Over at home the week after they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards as a dog. NFL Teams are 9-1 Over as a home dog when their rushing yards decreased in each of the last two weeks.
The combination of strong technical support including both angles and systems and the strong fundamentals makes this our 4* NFL Total Game of the Week for Week 10 of the NFL season.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* Jacksonville / Detroit OVER 43
Time / Date: 1:00 EST / Sunday November 9 (FOX)
Game: New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons
Line Origin: BetCris @ 8:15 EST November 5
Grade / Prediction: 3* New Orleans / Atlanta Over 50
Analysis:
The Atlanta Falcons hope to continue their surprising play when they face-off against NFC South division rival New Orleans Saints on Sunday in the Georgia Dome. Although the Falcons are 5-3 SU on the year they have played a soft schedule to this point with wins over the likes of Detroit, Kansas City and Oakland, teams that are a combined 3-21 halfway through the season and now the games get a little tougher down the stretch.
New Orleans is 4-4 so far this year and entered the season expecting to compete for the division title, but a series of injuries at the skill positions contributed to the Saints' slow start and their fall to last place in the South.
Top receiver Marques Colston missed five games with a thumb injury, tight end Jeremy Shockey missed three following sports hernia surgery and still isn't 100 percent and running back Deuce McAllister was slowed early in the season while recovering from knee surgery.
Each of those players is expected to be on the field Sunday, but the Saints will still be without star running back Reggie Bush, who had arthroscopic surgery to repair a meniscus tear in his left knee in October. They'll also likely be missing No. 2 receiver David Patten, out since September with a groin injury.
The Saints struggled defensively in their last outing, but the NFL's most prolific offense with 403.1 total yards per game compiled 409 in a 37-32 win over San Diego in London on Oct. 26. Brees was 30-for-41 for 339 yards and three TDs.
Today’s game features the Number 1 team in Total Offense with 403.1 yards per game by the Saints. The Saints led by QB Drew Brees is also the Number 1 team in Passing Yards per game with 314.4. The Falcons offense ranks 7th in the league in Total Offense per game and 1st in the league with 163.7 yards rushing per game.
Two of the league’s top offenses square-off against two of the league’s worst defensive units. The Falcons rank 16th in total yards allowed which includes 205 yards per game passing and 22nd in the league with 119.9 yards rushing per game allowed.
The Saints check in with a defense that is ranked 24th in the league allowing 346.4 yards per game of total offense. This includes 237.2 yards passing per game and 109.1 yards rushing per contest. Not good news for “Under” players in this game.
Technical support for this game comes from both squads. The Falcons are 6-0 Over as a home favorite versus a divisional opponent before playing at home. The Falcons are 8-1 Over at home after playing as a favorite. The Falcons are 11-3 Over at home when facing a team that has averaged fewer than four punts per game season-to-date. The Falcons are 5-0 Over within 3 of pick at home when facing a divisional opponent for the first time of the season.
The Saints are 40-19-2 Over their last 61 games versus a team with a winning record. The Saints are 10-2-1 Over their last 13 games overall. The Saints are 6-1-1 Over their last 8 games after scoring 30+ points in their last game. The Saints are 8-1 Over off a SU win. The Saints are 8-1-1 Over their last 10 versus the NFC. The Saints are 9-1-1 Over their last 11 games on field turf. The Saints are 25-9-2 Over their last 36 road games versus a team with a winning home record.
Data base research has uncovered several active technical systems for today’s match up between the Saints and Falcons. NFL Teams are 35-17 Over as a dog when facing a divisional opponent that has a better record. NFL Teams are 13-5 Over within 3 of pick on the road when facing a divisional opponent that has a better record. NFL Teams are 35-23 Over on the road versus a divisional opponent before playing against a non-divisional opponent.
NFL Teams are 28-8 Over as a home favorite when they were up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last week as a favorite. NFL Teams are 30-10 Over at home when they were up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last week as a favorite. NFL Teams are 17-3-1 Over the week after on the road when the line was within 3 of pick'em in which their completion percentage was at least ten points higher than their season-to-date average. The League is 13-4 Over within 3 of pick at home when they covered by 10+ points last week. NFL Teams are 19-4 Over at home when they were up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last week on the road as a favorite.
With strong technical, fundamental and situational support for our selection on the “Over” in this contest we will make it our NFL 3* Total Play of the Day for Sunday.
GRADED PREDICTION: 3* New Orleans / Atlanta Over 50
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NFL: 35-17 ATS (SportsMonitor of Okla)
Time / Date: 8:15 EST / Sunday November 9 (NBC)
Game: New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Line Origin: BetCris @ 3:19 EST November 8
Grade / Prediction: 5* Philadelphia Eagles -3
Analysis:
The City of Brotherly Love will be the site of Sunday nights featured NFL game on NBC. The Philadelphia Eagles will host their Conference rival the New York Giants. Both Teams enter this contest off a win as the Eagles dismantled the Seahawks in Seattle last week and the Giants did the same to the Dallas Cowboys at home.
Philadelphia checks in with a 5-3 SU record on the season while the Giants lead the way with a 7-1 SU record.
A road win over a surging Eagles squad on Sunday night would further eliminate any doubt that the Giants go into the second half of the season as the favorites to get back to the Super Bowl.
Many already consider New York to be the favorite, being the defending champion and having the best record in the NFC. However, the Giants have played a relatively easy schedule - the eight teams they've faced have a 27-40 combined record.
Granted, New York dominated Dallas last Sunday in a 35-14 home win, but that came against a slumping Cowboys team missing star quarterback Tony Romo. Starting with this matchup against the NFC East rival Eagles, who have won three straight, not one of the Giants' final eight opponents currently has a sub-.500 record.
For the Giants to be successful on Sunday night they will need a big game out of QB Eli Manning. He has been struggling of late and reverting back to his old habits that at one time questioned his future as a Giant.
The Eagles are second in the NFC with 27 sacks and will look to keep the pressure on Manning after he succumbed to it last week. The Super Bowl MVP lost two fumbles, was sacked four times, had an interception returned for a touchdown and threw for a season-low 147 yards against Dallas.
Manning has a 78.5 quarterback rating over the past four weeks, failing to throw for 200 yards once. He was averaging 258.0 through the first four games while posting a 102.2 rating.
This is a tough spot for the Giants as they are coming off that emotional but satisfying win over Dallas last Sunday and the week before they had a tough game against the Steelers
The Eagles on the other hand had their bye three weeks ago then faced Atlanta at home and then won big at Seattle last week. This game sets up well for the Eagles on Sunday night.
Eagles QB Donovan McNabb has his full arsenal of weapons with Brian Westbrook and wide-outs Kevin Curtis and Reggie Brown who will be joining rookie sensation DeSean Jackson. McNabb is having an outstanding season, he is on pace to throw for over 4300 yards this season.
The Eagles have quietly won eight of their last eleven games and are traditionally strongest during the months of November and December under HC Andy Reid. In fact the Eagles are 48-20 during those two months dating back to 2001, which is the second best winning percentage in the NFL during that span.
The Eagles need this win to keep pace with the Giants in the toughest division in football.
The Eagles defense is in the Top Ten in the league and has only allowed two opponents to rush for more than 90 yards in a game. This is a key factor in this contest as the Giants rely on their rushing attack to make up for Eli’s struggles at the QB position. This will be the difference in tonight’s game.
We have three technical systems that are active for tonight’s contest. The first one tells us to Play AGAINST NFL Teams with an OHPA that is higher than their opponents and a Pass Defense Rating >=0 in their last three games. This system is 282-159 ATS and 20-6 ATS the last 26 times it was active. We should also Play AGAINST NFL Favs (or Dogs of <7 points) that have a higher OHPA than their opponent and their Gross Punt Yardage average is not more than 7 yards above their net. This system is 200-91 ATS since 1994. The final tech system says to Play AGAINST teams with a Pass Defense Rating over the last three games that is >=1 point higher than their season to date PDE and that have a season Turn-Over Differential of >0.5. This tech system is 60-15 ATS since 2004.
Finally we have two Power Systems that are also active for tonight’s game. From Game 9 on, Play AGAINST a 1-loss road underdog of 3-11½ points with a TOTAL of 32½-46 points not off a SU win of 32+ points in its last game, 13-0-1 ATS since 1987 and averages covering the spread by 12.4 points per game. In Weeks 2-12, play AGAINST a non-Monday team (not an underdog of more than 7 points) off a division SU win against a .500%+ foe last week vs. an opponent before a +.500% opponent next week, 17-0-1 ATS since 2004 and averages covering the spread by 12.7 points per game.
GRADED PREDICTION: 5* Philadelphia Eagles -3
Time / Date: 4:05 EST / Sunday November 9 (FOX)
Game: Carolina Panthers vs. Oakland Raiders
Line Origin: BetCris @ 3:50 EST November 8
Grade / Prediction: 4* Carolina Panthers -9.5
Analysis:
The Carolina Panthers head west to face the Oakland Raiders on Sunday afternoon. The Panthers are coming off their bye week and the Raiders are just “showing up” again on Sunday afternoon.
Carolina (6-2) headed into last week's bye after posting consecutive home victories, most recently rallying from a two-touchdown deficit for a 27-23 win over Arizona on Oct. 26.
The NFC South-leading Panthers return from their week off with the second-best record in the conference behind the New York Giants, who are 7-1.
Fox's team has held opponents to 15.9 points per game, but opens the second half following one of its worst defensive performances. The Panthers have allowed an average of 305.6 yards per game, but gave up a season-high 425 to Arizona. They also allowed 375 passing yards - their most since surrendering 396 versus the Cardinals on Oct. 9, 2005.
But Carolina overcame those inefficiencies behind quarterback Jake Delhomme, who went 20-for-28 for 248 yards and two touchdowns - including the go-ahead 65-yard pass to Steve Smith with 2 seconds left in the third quarter.
Carolina and Delhomme will face an Oakland defense which allows 373.9 yards per game to rank 28th in the NFL.
The Raider offense has been no better, with a league-low 13.4 points per contest and an average of 282.6 yards.
Oakland gave up a season-worst 453 yards, and managed just 77 of their own - its fewest in 37 years - in a 24-0 loss to visiting Atlanta on Sunday.
Quarterback JaMarcus Russell went 6-for-19 for 31 yards with an interception and was sacked four times - the worst start of his young career.
The Raiders fall into the category of “Towel Tossers”; these are teams that have given up on the season. They recently fired their head coach, their owner lost his mind years ago and they let a high priced player go this past week in DeAngelo Hall. A team in turmoil would be the kind way to reference this Raiders team.
NFL Teams are 55-29 ATS as a favorite the week after their bye. NFL Teams are 10-0 ATS as a road favorite the week after their bye. NFL Teams are 0-10 ATS as a home dog when their opponent is off their bye. The Raiders are 0-19-1 ATS when their dps was negative in their last three games. The Raiders are 1-12 ATS at home when they rushed for at least 50 yards fewer last week than their season-to-date average in a straight up loss. The Raiders are 0-11 ATS as a dog when their dps was negative in their last three games. The Raiders are 0-7 ATS as a dog the week after scoring fewer than 10 points at home.
Finally we have two NFL Power Systems that are active for today’s match up. Play ON a road favorite with a TOTAL of 34+ points off a BYE and a favorite SU win of 4+ points in its last game vs. an opponent not off a SU loss of 25+ points in its last game, 19-0 ATS since 1999 and has averaged covering the spread by 14.2 points per game. In Games 2-14, play AGAINST a home team off gaining less than 122 yards in its last game vs. an opponent not off a SU win of 25+ points or a Monday division home favorite SU loss in its last game, 20-0 ATS since 1992 and averages covering the spread by 10.6 points per game.
Our Technical Situation Report shows the Panthers in a positive situation that states to Play ON teams after Week 6 with a SU Win % >=0.500, coming off a bye week, preceded by a game in which they were favored and their current opponent has a below average ROF/POF in their last three games, 56-14 ATS since 1994 and a perfect 2-0 ATS this year!
We will back the visitor here as the “Towel Tossing” Raiders just show up and the Panthers are fighting for a conference championship.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* Carolina Panthers -9.5
Time / Date: 1:00 EST / Sunday November 9 (CBS)
Game: Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Detroit Lions
Line Origin: BetCris @ 7:52 EST November 8
Grade / Prediction: 4* Detroit Lions +6.5
Analysis:
The Jacksonville Jaguars take to the road again this week as they travel to the Motor City to face the winless Detroit Lions on Sunday afternoon. The Jags were also on the road last week facing a winless Cincinnati team and came away with a loss.
The Lions are hoping to repeat that performance on Sunday as they attempt to capture their first win of the season against the struggling Jaguars. It’s possible we may see newly acquired Daunte Culpepper at quarterback for the Lions as their current starter Dan Orlovsky sprained his right thumb in last week’s loss to Chicago.
It was another heartbreaking loss for the Lions, as they've had opportunities to win their last four games after getting blown out in their first four. The four most recent defeats have come by an average of 5.3 points after they dropped their first four by an average of 27.0.
The Jaguars have also been involved in close contests, as they're the only team in the league that has had all of its games decided by seven points or fewer this season.
Jags QB David Garrard has thrown 6 touchdowns and 5 interceptions on the season. He has thrown for 1771 yards and averages 202.6 yards per game with a 64.6 completion percentage this year.
Jacksonville failed to get its ground game going Sunday, as Jones-Drew was limited to 33 yards on 10 carries against Cincinnati. The running game has been key for the Jaguars, as they are averaging 176.7 rushing yards in their wins, but 70.0 rushing yards in their losses.
Detroit even though they are winless has continued to put forth the effort over their last four games and we see this game being no different. The Jags are struggling and the Lions are searching for their first win of the season and could possibly get that win today.
Our Technical Situational Report shows Detroit in a positive situation on Sunday. Play AGAINST NFL teams with a Rush Yardage Advantage of >20, facing an opponent with a Rushing Situation Rating <0.5, 95-32 ATS since 1994 and 9-2 ATS this season. Play AGAINST NFL teams with a Season Spread Average that is higher than their current spread and had 20 or more Total Plays For versus Against in their last game, 141-69 ATS since 1994 and 5-1 ATS this season. Play ON NFL teams coming off back-to-back SU losses with a Season Starting Field Position FOR average <29, 128-63 ATS since 1994 and 10-4 ATS this season.
With strong technical and situational support for the host we will back the Detroit Lions over the Jacksonville Jaguars as a 4* NFL Best Bet on Sunday.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* Detroit Lions +6.5
Time / Date: 1:00 PM EST / Sunday November 9 (CBS)
Game: Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Detroit Lions
Line Origin: BetCris @ 8:15 EST November 5
Grade / Prediction: 4* Jacksonville / Detroit Over 43
Analysis:
The Jacksonville Jaguars take to the road again this week as they travel to the Motor City to face the winless Detroit Lions on Sunday afternoon. The Jags were also on the road last week facing a winless Cincinnati team and came away with a loss.
The Lions are hoping to repeat that performance on Sunday as they attempt to capture their first win of the season against the struggling Jaguars. It’s possible we may see newly acquired Daunte Culpepper at quarterback for the Lions as their current starter Dan Orlovsky sprained his right thumb in last week’s loss to Chicago.
Culpepper had career highs in passing yards (4,717), touchdowns (39) and passer rating (110.9) in 2004 with Minnesota, but a knee injury the following year ended his career with the Vikings. The 6-foot-4, 265-pound Culpepper started 10 games over the 2006-07 seasons with Oakland and Miami, throwing seven touchdowns and eight interceptions.
Culpepper threw for 235 yards; one touchdown and one interception in his only career start against Jacksonville on Nov. 28, 2004, a 27-16 Minnesota victory.
Jags QB David Garrard has thrown 6 touchdowns and 5 interceptions on the season. He has thrown for 1771 yards and averages 202.6 yards per game with a 64.6 completion percentage this year. The Lions pass defense ranks 29th in the league allowing 247.1 yards passing per game.
Jacksonville failed to get its ground game going Sunday, as Jones-Drew was limited to 33 yards on 10 carries against Cincinnati. The running game has been key for the Jaguars, as they are averaging 176.7 rushing yards in their wins, but 70.0 rushing yards in their losses.
Their rushing problem should disappear today as they face a Lions defense that ranks 31st in the league against the run, allowing 161.8 yards per game. This should translate into scores for the Jaguars on Sunday.
The Jacksonville defense is not what it used to be as they are allowing 21.5 points per game which ranks 14th in the league. In fact they allow more yards per game, 335.2 (ranks 23rd) than their own offense averages with just 312 yards per game.
The Jags defense ranks 21st in the league in passing yards allowed with 220.9 and ranks 20th in rushing yards allowed per game with 114.4 yards per game. These stats may well be their demise not only on Sunday but for the season as they are struggling to make the playoffs.
The Lions defense is the worst overall in the league allowing over 400 yards of total offense per game this season and they are also the worst scoring defense in the league allowing an unbelievable 30 points per game on the year.
Two defenses that combine to allow over 51 points per game and currently seeing 44 and 44.5 across the board means we are getting solid line value on the Total in this game.
Technical support for our selection on the “Over” in this contest comes from both teams. The Jaguars are 12-1 Over as a favorite after playing on the road. The Jaguars are 17-3 Over after playing on the road. The League is 10-4 Over on the road the week after on the road in which they had at least 3 more penalties than their season-to-date average. The Jaguars are 15-4-1 Over since October 28, 2007. The Jaguars are 9-0 Over as a favorite versus any team with fewer wins after playing on the road. The Jaguars are 10-2 Over as a road favorite before playing at home in each of the next two weeks.
The Lions are 10-2-1 Over at home the week after on the road as a dog in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. The Lions are 8-1-1 Over at home the week after on the road in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. The Lions are 12-4 Over after a straight up loss as a dog.
Data base research has uncovered several strong technical systems that are active for today’ game. NFL Teams are 26-9 Over on the road when they suffered at least three sacks in each of the last two weeks. NFL Teams are 40-23-2 Over when they lost and failed to cover their last two games. NFL Teams are 15-4-1 Over since October 28, 2007 versus the Jaguars.
NFL Teams are 66-38-5 Over at home after playing as a dog. NFL Teams are 42-35-2 Over at home between away games. NFL Teams are 20-4 Over as a home dog after a loss as a TD+ dog in which they were winning at the end of the third quarter (Detroit). NFL Teams are 18-4 Over as a home dog after a loss on the road as a TD+ dog in which they were winning at the end of the third quarter (Detroit). NFL Teams are 21-8-1 Over at home the week after they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards as a dog. NFL Teams are 9-1 Over as a home dog when their rushing yards decreased in each of the last two weeks.
The combination of strong technical support including both angles and systems and the strong fundamentals makes this our 4* NFL Total Game of the Week for Week 10 of the NFL season.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* Jacksonville / Detroit OVER 43
Time / Date: 1:00 EST / Sunday November 9 (FOX)
Game: New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons
Line Origin: BetCris @ 8:15 EST November 5
Grade / Prediction: 3* New Orleans / Atlanta Over 50
Analysis:
The Atlanta Falcons hope to continue their surprising play when they face-off against NFC South division rival New Orleans Saints on Sunday in the Georgia Dome. Although the Falcons are 5-3 SU on the year they have played a soft schedule to this point with wins over the likes of Detroit, Kansas City and Oakland, teams that are a combined 3-21 halfway through the season and now the games get a little tougher down the stretch.
New Orleans is 4-4 so far this year and entered the season expecting to compete for the division title, but a series of injuries at the skill positions contributed to the Saints' slow start and their fall to last place in the South.
Top receiver Marques Colston missed five games with a thumb injury, tight end Jeremy Shockey missed three following sports hernia surgery and still isn't 100 percent and running back Deuce McAllister was slowed early in the season while recovering from knee surgery.
Each of those players is expected to be on the field Sunday, but the Saints will still be without star running back Reggie Bush, who had arthroscopic surgery to repair a meniscus tear in his left knee in October. They'll also likely be missing No. 2 receiver David Patten, out since September with a groin injury.
The Saints struggled defensively in their last outing, but the NFL's most prolific offense with 403.1 total yards per game compiled 409 in a 37-32 win over San Diego in London on Oct. 26. Brees was 30-for-41 for 339 yards and three TDs.
Today’s game features the Number 1 team in Total Offense with 403.1 yards per game by the Saints. The Saints led by QB Drew Brees is also the Number 1 team in Passing Yards per game with 314.4. The Falcons offense ranks 7th in the league in Total Offense per game and 1st in the league with 163.7 yards rushing per game.
Two of the league’s top offenses square-off against two of the league’s worst defensive units. The Falcons rank 16th in total yards allowed which includes 205 yards per game passing and 22nd in the league with 119.9 yards rushing per game allowed.
The Saints check in with a defense that is ranked 24th in the league allowing 346.4 yards per game of total offense. This includes 237.2 yards passing per game and 109.1 yards rushing per contest. Not good news for “Under” players in this game.
Technical support for this game comes from both squads. The Falcons are 6-0 Over as a home favorite versus a divisional opponent before playing at home. The Falcons are 8-1 Over at home after playing as a favorite. The Falcons are 11-3 Over at home when facing a team that has averaged fewer than four punts per game season-to-date. The Falcons are 5-0 Over within 3 of pick at home when facing a divisional opponent for the first time of the season.
The Saints are 40-19-2 Over their last 61 games versus a team with a winning record. The Saints are 10-2-1 Over their last 13 games overall. The Saints are 6-1-1 Over their last 8 games after scoring 30+ points in their last game. The Saints are 8-1 Over off a SU win. The Saints are 8-1-1 Over their last 10 versus the NFC. The Saints are 9-1-1 Over their last 11 games on field turf. The Saints are 25-9-2 Over their last 36 road games versus a team with a winning home record.
Data base research has uncovered several active technical systems for today’s match up between the Saints and Falcons. NFL Teams are 35-17 Over as a dog when facing a divisional opponent that has a better record. NFL Teams are 13-5 Over within 3 of pick on the road when facing a divisional opponent that has a better record. NFL Teams are 35-23 Over on the road versus a divisional opponent before playing against a non-divisional opponent.
NFL Teams are 28-8 Over as a home favorite when they were up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last week as a favorite. NFL Teams are 30-10 Over at home when they were up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last week as a favorite. NFL Teams are 17-3-1 Over the week after on the road when the line was within 3 of pick'em in which their completion percentage was at least ten points higher than their season-to-date average. The League is 13-4 Over within 3 of pick at home when they covered by 10+ points last week. NFL Teams are 19-4 Over at home when they were up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last week on the road as a favorite.
With strong technical, fundamental and situational support for our selection on the “Over” in this contest we will make it our NFL 3* Total Play of the Day for Sunday.
GRADED PREDICTION: 3* New Orleans / Atlanta Over 50
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