SPORTS ADVISORS
Jacksonville (3-5, 2-6 ATS) at Detroit (0-8, 3-5 ATS)
Two teams desperate for a victory get together at Ford Field when the Lions host the Jaguars in a non-conference contest.
Detroit gave it a good go in Chicago last week before losing 27-23, but the Lions easily covered as a heavy 12½-point underdog, moving to 3-1 ATS in their last four starts. Detroit didn’t run the ball well at all (26 attempts, 53 yards), relying more on QB Dan Orlovsky (28 of 47, 292 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs), who actually helped the Lions put up 23 second-quarter points to give them a 23-13 halftime lead before being shut out in the second half.
On Monday, the Lions signed former Pro Bowl QB Daunte Culpepper, and he could end up starting this week as Orlovsky is hurt.
Freefalling Jacksonville tumbled to previously winless Cincinnati 21-19 laying nine points on the road for its second consecutive SU and ATS loss, and the Jags are now 1-4 ATS in their last five starts. The lowly Bengals outgained the Jaguars 312-282, and Jacksonville’s once-feared rushing game netted just 68 yards. QB David Garrard (23 of 38, 229 yards, 0 TDs) threw a third-quarter INT, his first pick in his last 166 attempts.
These teams have met just once this decade, with Jacksonville posting a 23-17 overtime win giving 3½ points in 2004.
The Lions are 6-3 ATS in their last nine against the AFC, but they carry negative ATS trends of 4-12 overall, 0-4 at home, 0-5 on field turf, 1-4 after a spread-cover and 4-9 after a SU loss. The Jaguars are on ATS skids of 0-4 against losing teams and 5-14 as a road chalk, but they are 10-6 ATS in their last 16 non-conference starts and, despite last week’s loss at Cincinnati, 9-5 ATS in their last 14 road games.
The over for Detroit is on streaks of 10-3-1 overall, 5-1-1 on field turf, 4-1-1 at home and 8-3-1 after a SU loss. Likewise, the over for Jacksonville is on runs of 13-4-3 overall, 5-1-1 against losing teams and 8-2-2 on the highway.
ATS ADVANTAGE: JACKSONVILLE and OVER
Tennessee (8-0, 7-1 ATS) at Chicago (5-3, 4-3-1 ATS)
The Titans put their perfect record on the line when they step out of the AFC with a trip to Soldier Field to take on the Bears.
Tennessee got all it could handle from Green Bay last week before prevailing 19-16 in overtime, but it failed to cover as a 3½-point home chalk for its first ATS setback of the season. QB Kerry Collins (18 of 37, 180 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) was a decent, but Tennessee had no turnovers, while forcing two, and got 178 yards from its ground game. Kicker Rob Bironas won it with a 41-yard field goal on the first possession of the extra session.
Chicago nearly caved in against hapless Detroit last Sunday, rallying for a 27-23 win as an overwhelming 12½-point home favorite. QB Kyle Orton (8 of 14, 108 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) left before halftime with an ankle injury, and backup Rex Grossman (8 of 18, 58 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) wasn’t terribly effective, either, but he led Chicago’s game-winning touchdown drive and got help from rookie RB Matt Forte (126 rushing yards on 22 carries).
The SU winner is still 15-2-1 in the Titans’ last 18 outings and 19-2-1 in Chicago’s last 23 contests.
In the lone meeting this decade between these two teams, Chicago won 19-17 in overtime as a 5½-point road pup in 2004.
Along with their season-long 7-1 ATS run, the Titans are on further pointspread streaks of 5-1 on the road, 9-4 as a road chalk, 4-0 after a non-cover, 7-1 after a SU win, 7-1 on grass and 16-7 against NFC foes. The Bears sport positive ATS runs of 7-3-1 overall, 12-6 as a home ‘dog, 7-1 after a non-cover and 24-11-2 in November, though they are just 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a SU win.
The under for Tennessee is on stretches of 4-0 against winning teams and 4-1 on the road, but the over is 7-3-1 in the team’s last 11 November contests, and the over for Chicago is on a 19-4 run at Soldier Field.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TENNESSEE
Buffalo (5-3, 4-4 ATS) at New England (5-3, 4-4 ATS)
The Bills, who have come back to the pack after a 4-0 start, try to get back on track with a trip to Gillette Stadium to meet the defending AFC champion Patriots.
Buffalo are coming off a 26-17 home loss to the Jets laying five points, giving the SU winner a 7-1 ATS mark in the Bills’ eight games this year. QB Trent Edwards (24 of 35, 289 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs, 1 fumble) accounted for nearly all of the Bills’ yards, as the team finished with just 30 net rushing yards, but Edwards also committed all three turnovers, with one interception returned 92 yards for a touchdown
New England lost to Indianapolis 18-15 Sunday night but cashed as a 6½-point road underdog, continuing its season-long trend of alternating ATS wins and losses. The Pats outgained the Colts 342-301 and enjoyed a nine-minute edge in time of possession, but they lost the turnover battle 2-0. QB Matt Cassel (25 of 34, 204 yards, 0 TDs) threw his lone INT with 4:40 left in the fourth quarter, keeping New England from at least attempting a game-tying field goal.
New England owns a nine-game winning streak against Buffalo (7-2 ATS), cashing in each of the last three battles. Last year, the Pats posted a pair of blowout wins – 38-7 at home laying 16½ points and a whopping 56-10 road win as a 16-point chalk. The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six clashes, but the favorite is 9-2 ATS in the last 11. Finally, New England is on a 5-2 ATS run at home in this series.
The Bills are 6-1 ATS in their last seven as a division road pup and 4-1 ATS in their last five coming off a non-cover, but they have failed to cash in five straight games against winning teams. Despite last week’s cover, the Patriots are on a bevy of ATS slides, including 4-10 overall, 1-8 at home, 0-6 after a spread-cover, and 3-7 as a home favorite against AFC East rivals. But they are on ATS runs of 15-7 against winning teams and 35-17-1 inside the division.
The under in this rivalry is on a 14-4 overall spree and is 8-1 in the last nine battles at Gillette. In addition, the under for Buffalo is on runs of 4-1-1 against the AFC and 5-2 on the road, and the under for New England is on tears of 7-2-1 overall, 8-1-2 against the AFC, 7-1-2 at home and 9-2 in November.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
New Orleans (4-4, 5-3 ATS) at Atlanta (5-3 SU and ATS)
The extremely surprising Falcons look to keep their resurgence going at the Georgia Dome in an NFC South matchup against the Saints.
Atlanta rolled to a 24-0 victory against a flat-lining Oakland squad a week ago, scoring all of its points in the first half and covering easily as a three-point road chalk. Rookie QB Matt Ryan (17 of 22, 220 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) continued to impress with an efficient game, and RB Michael Turner racked up 139 yards on 31 carries as the Falcons netted 252 yards rushing among their 453 total yards, while the defense held the Raiders to just 77 total yards and three first downs.
New Orleans took last week off after beating San Diego 37-32 as a three-point underdog in London, giving the SU winner a 17-1 ATS mark in the Saints’ last 18 games (7-1 this season). QB Drew Brees (30 of 41, 339 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs) paced the turnover-free offense, while the defense forced two Chargers miscues.
New Orleans is on a 4-0 run (3-1 ATS) in this rivalry, and the Saints are 4-1 ATS on their last five trips to Atlanta and 6-2 ATS in the last eight clashes overall.
The Falcons are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five division games, but they are on ATS runs of 7-3 overall and 4-0 at home. The Saints are on ATS dips of 0-4 after a SU win and 1-4 following a spread-cover, but they’ve been solid in divisional games, going 21-5-1 ATS on their last 27 NFC South trips.
The over for New Orleans is on stretches of 10-2-1 overall, 9-1-1 on field turf, 8-1-1 against the NFC and 4-1 on the highway. For Atlanta, the under is on a 4-1 run and is 10-4 in its last 14 division games, but the over is on a 6-1 in its last seven contests at the Georgia Dome.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
St. Louis (2-6, 3-5 ATS) at N.Y. Jets (5-3, 4-4 ATS)
The Jets, looking to build on a mild upset last week, return to the Meadowlands for a non-conference contest against the Rams.
New York dropped Buffalo 26-17 as a five-point road pup to pull into a first-place tie with the Bills and Patriots in the AFC East. QB Brett Favre (19 of 28, 201 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT) was mediocre, and his lone INT was taken back 42 yards for a fourth-quarter TD. But the Jets ended up winning the turnover battle 3-1, including a 92-yard INT return for a TD from Abram Elam in the first quarter, which gave New York the lead for good.
St. Louis got belted by Arizona 34-13 as a three-point home ‘dog last Sunday, suffering its second consecutive SU loss while ending a three-game ATS winning streak. QB Marc Bulger (16 of 33, 186 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 1 fumble) had a subpar day, and St. Louis gave up a whopping 510 total yards, while gaining just 231.
The SU winner is 7-1 ATS in Jets games this season and 10-1 ATS in St. Louis’ last 11 contests.
St. Louis has won and cashed in two meetings this decade against New York, most recently scoring a 32-29 overtime decision as a 3½-point home underdog in 2005.
The Jets are in ATS ruts of 2-8 against losing teams and 3-7 after a SU win, but they are on a 5-2 ATS run as a non-division home chalk. The Rams are on several negative pointspread streaks, including 3-8 overall, 3-11 against winning teams, 7-16 in November, 20-44-1 after a non-cover and 19-41-1 after a SU setback.
The under for New York is on runs of 8-3-1 overall, 5-2 at home, 9-0 after a spread-cover and 7-3 on grass, and the under for St. Louis is on streaks of 9-3 on the road and 8-1 on grass.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Seattle (2-6, 3-5 ATS) at Miami (4-4, 5-3 ATS)
The Dolphins go after their third straight win when they welcome the slumping Seahawks to South Beach.
Miami upended Denver 26-17 as a four-point road pup for its second straight win and cover. The Dolphins allowed just 14 rushing yards and picked off Broncos QB Jay Cutler three times, returning one for a first-quarter TD, and Miami racked up a 13-minute advantage in time of possession. QB Chad Pennington was solid, going 23 of 40 for 281 yards with no TDs and one INT.
Seattle is coming off a 26-7 loss to Philadelphia as a seven-point home underdog, falling for the fourth time in five games. Behind backup QB Seneca Wallace (13 of 29, 169 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs), who is still subbing for the injured Matt Hasselbeck, the Seahawks managed just 233 total yards, while allowing 410, and Seattle lost the time-of-possession battle by nearly a full quarter.
Miami is on a 4-0 ATS run in this rivalry, most recently losing 24-17 in 2004 but cashing as a 9½-point road ‘dog. The visitor is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
The Dolphins are on ATS surges of 5-1 overall and 7-1-1 in November, but they are 12-29-1 ATS in their last 42 home games and 4-19 ATS in their last 23 as a home favorite. The Seahawks carry positive ATS streaks of 7-2 after a SU loss and 6-2 after a non-cover, but they are on pointspread dips of 2-5 on the highway, 1-10 in AFC road games and 5-14 in the Eastern time zone.
The over for Seattle is on runs of 8-2-1 overall and 5-1 on the road, but the under for Miami is on streaks of 7-1 after a SU win and 5-0 in November.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MIAMI
Green Bay (4-4, 5-3 ATS) at Minnesota (4-4, 3-5 ATS)
The Packers and Vikings both look to get back above .500 when they square off at the Metrodome in an NFC North clash.
Green Bay lost to Tennessee 19-16 in overtime but got the cash as a 3½-point road pup. QB Aaron Rodgers (22 of 41, 314 yards, 1 TD) let a good day get away from him by committing both of the Packers’ turnovers, on an INT in the end zone and a lost fumble on back-to-back third-quarter possessions. Green Bay didn’t force any turnovers.
Minnesota beat Houston 28-21 as a 6½-point home chalk, ending a two-game ATS hiccup. QB Gus Frerrotte (11 of 18, 182 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT) made the most of a limited number of throws, RB Adrian Peterson (25 carries, 139 yards, 1 TD) had a big day, and the Vikings won the turnover battle, 3-1.
The SU winner is 24-1-1 ATS in the Packers’ last 26 contests and 20-2-2 ATS in the Vikings’ last 24 (7-1 this season).
Green Bay opened the season with a 24-19 victory over Minnesota as a two-point home favorite, improving to 3-0 SU and ATS in the last three meetings between these longtime rivals. In addition, the Pack are on a 4-1 ATS run at the Metrodome, the underdog is 15-4 ATS in the last 19 clashes and the visitor has cashed in 10 of the last 13 battles.
The Packers sport positive ATS trends of 19-7-1 overall, 6-1 in road division contests, 5-1 on turf and 12-3-1 on the highway. The Vikings are 6-3 ATS in their last nine as a division favorite, but otherwise they’re on pointspread slides of 3-8 overall, 0-4 against the NFC North, 0-5 after a SU win and 2-5 against NFC foes.
The over for Green Bay is on surges of 19-7-1 overall, 5-0 in division play and 7-1-1 on the road, and the over has cashed in four of Minnesota’s last five games. Also, the over is 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings between these squads at the Metrodome.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GREEN BAY and OVER
Carolina (6-2, 4-2-2 ATS) at Oakland (2-6, 3-5 ATS)
The Panthers head to the West Coast in search of their third straight win when they take on the lowly Raiders at McAfee Coliseum.
Carolina, which took last week off, edged Arizona 27-23 two weeks ago as a five-point home chalk, but the SU winner is still 21-2-1 ATS in the Panthers’ last 24 games (6-1-1 ATS this year) dating to the 2007 season opener. Carolina trailed 10-3 at the half, but QB Jake Delhomme (20 of 28, 248 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) led a 21-point third quarter, including two TD passes to Steve Smith.
Oakland was atrocious in last week’s 24-0 loss to Atlanta as a three-point home underdog, its second consecutive SU and ATS loss. The Raiders finished with just 77 total yards and three first downs, in part because they had the ball for less than 15 minutes, and the defense got ripped for 453 yards. QB JaMarcus Russell finished 6 of 19 for just 31 yards with one INT and a lost fumble.
In two meetings this decade with Carolina, Oakland is 2-0 SU and ATS, including a 27-24 road win as a 6½-point underdog in 2004.
The Panthers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games, but they boast positive pointspread streaks of 7-3-1 overall, 4-0 after a non-cover and 10-5-1 against losing teams. The Raiders, meanwhile, are a horrific 29-59-1 ATS in their last 89 games, 9-25 ATS in their last 34 at home and 1-10 SU and ATS in their last 11 against the NFC.
For Carolina, the under is on runs of 6-1 overall, 9-1 in November and 5-1 against losing teams, and the under for Oakland is on a 36-15-2 stretch against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CAROLINA and UNDER
Kansas City (1-7, 4-4 ATS) at San Diego (3-5 SU and ATS)
The Chargers come back from their bye week looking to end a two-game losing skid when they host the Chiefs in an AFC West matchup at Qualcomm Stadium.
San Diego fell to New Orleans 37-32 in London two weeks ago as a three-point chalk, giving the SU winner an eye-opening 25-1-1 ATS mark in the Bolts’ last 27 games (7-0-1 ATS this season). QB Philip Rivers (25 of 40, 341 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT) had a strong outing, but in an otherwise evenly played game – San Diego outgained New Orleans 451-409 – the Chargers committed the game’s only two turnovers.
Kansas City is coming off a heartbreaking 30-27 overtime loss to Tampa Bay, blowing a 24-3 second-quarter lead, but the Chiefs covered as a 9½-point underdog for their second straight ATS win. QB Tyler Thigpen (14 of 25, 164 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) was mistake-free, and the Chiefs failed to fully take advantage of a 4-1 turnover edge, scoring just three points after halftime.
These rivals split last year’s meetings, with the road team winning and covering, and the underdog is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 contests. However, the host is on a 5-2 ATS run, and despite last year’s home loss, San Diego is 4-1 ATS in the last five clashes at Qualcomm.
Despite their setback across the pond, the Chargers remain on ATS runs of 12-4-1 overall, 9-1 at home, 4-1-1 after a non-cover, 20-6-4 in division play and 20-7-3 after a SU loss, and they are also 6-2 ATS the past eight years when coming off the bye. The Chiefs have cashed in six straight games as a double-digit pup and eight of their last 11 on the highway, but they are in ATS slumps of 1-5 versus the AFC West, 4-9 on grass and 13-28 in November.
The over for San Diego is on streaks of 8-2 after a SU loss, 11-3 after a pointspread setback, 13-4-1 in November and 12-5 against losing teams, and the over for K.C. is on runs of 5-1 overall and 5-0 after a SU loss. However, the under has been the play in five of the last seven series meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN DIEGO
Indianapolis (4-4, 3-5 ATS) at Pittsburgh (6-2, 4-4 ATS)
The Steelers, coming off their fourth road win in five attempts this season, return to Heinz Field to take on the Colts.
Pittsburgh flattened Washington 23-6 on Monday night as a one-point road ‘dog, scoring the game’s final 23 points in moving to 3-1 SU and ATS in its last four games. QB Ben Roethlisberger (5 of 17, 50 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT) played only the first half due to a shoulder injury, but Byron Leftwich (7 of 10, 129 yards, 1 TD) was solid off the bench. In a defensive battle, the Steelers narrowly outgained the Redskins 224-221, but Pittsburgh forced two Jason Campbell INTs – the first two picks of the season for the Washington QB.
Indianapolis edged New England 18-15 but couldn’t cover as a 6½-point home chalk, the first time in 11 games that the SU winner failed to cash in a Colts game. QB Peyton Manning (21 of 29, 254 yards, 2 TDs) had a clean game as Indy committed no turnovers, while forcing two, which helped make up for a nine-minute time-of-possession deficit.
Pittsburgh is 3-1 ATS (2-2 SU) in the last four meetings with Indianapolis, including a stunning 21-18 upset playoff win following the 2005 season as a 10-point road underdog, en route to winning the Super Bowl.
The Colts are on a 6-3-1 ATS surge as a non-division road ‘dog, but they are in pointspread funks of 3-7 overall, 0-5 against winning teams and 2-5 against AFC foes. The Steelers, despite their current 3-1 ATS streak, are on pointspread slides of 1-5 after a spread-cover, 2-5 as a home chalk and 3-7-1 in November.
The under is 8-2 in Indy’s last 10 November starts, but the over is on a 5-2 run on the road for the Colts, and the over for Pittsburgh is on stretches of 7-1 against the AFC, 37-14-2 at home, 7-3-1 on grass and 11-5-1 after a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Baltimore (5-3, 6-2 ATS) at Houston (3-5, 2-6 ATS)
The surging Ravens seek their fourth straight win when they travel to Reliant Stadium for a meeting with the Texans.
Baltimore topped Cleveland 37-27 as a one-point road pup, winning and covering for the third week in a row, and the SU winner is now 17-2 in the Ravens’ last 19 games (7-1 ATS this year). Rookie QB Joe Flacco (17 of 29, 248 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) helped Baltimore rally from a 27-13 second-half deficit, as the Ravens outscored the Browns 17-0 in the fourth quarter. The Ravens capped the game with LB Terrell Suggs’ 42-yard INT return for a TD late in the fourth quarter.
Houston saw its three-game winning streak come to an end in a 28-21 loss at Minnesota , falling just short as a 6½-point road ‘dog. QB Sage Rosenfels (21 of 29, 224 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) led two second-half TD drives after starter Matt Schaub left with a knee injury, but the Texans gave up 168 rushing yards and lost the turnover battle 3-1.
These two teams have met just twice, with Baltimore winning both (1-1 ATS). In their last meeting in 2005, the Ravens prevailed 16-15, but the Texans took the money as a 7½-point pup
The Ravens are on ATS runs of 7-2 overall, 4-0 against losing teams and 4-0 after a SU win, but they are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 on the highway. The Texans are in ATS declines of 1-4 overall, 1-4 after a SU loss, 2-6 against winning teams and 5-11 against AFC opponents.
The over for Baltimore is on tears of 11-4 overall, 6-2 on the road, 11-2 on grass and 11-3 against AFC foes. For Houston, the over is on streaks of 20-8-1 overall, 4-1 at home 7-1 on grass, 7-1 against the AFC and 17-5 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
N.Y. Giants (7-1, 6-2 ATS) at Philadelphia (5-3, 6-2 ATS)
The defending Super Bowl-champion Giants head to Lincoln Financial Field for a key NFC East clash against the resurgent Eagles in prime time.
New York plastered Dallas 35-14 and easily cashed as a 9½-point home chalk for its third straight win and cover, giving the SU winner an 18-2 ATS mark in the Giants’ last 20 games (7-1 ATS this season). QB Eli Manning (16 of 27, 147 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT) turned limited yards into a lot of points, RB Brandon Jacobs rushed for 117 yards and a TD on 17 carries, and the Giants held the Tony Romo-less Cowboys to just 183 total yards.
Philadelphia ripped Seattle 26-7 as a seven-point road chalk last week, and like the Giants, the Eagles are on a 3-0 SU and ATS tear. QB Donovan McNabb (28 of 43, 349 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) had a big day as the Eagles posted a 419-233 total yardage advantage and a more than a 14-minute edge in time of possession. The Eagles shut out the Seahawks over the last three quarters.
New York is on a 3-0 ATS run (2-1 SU) in this rivalry, including sweeping last year’s season series, and the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five clashes. Also, the underdog has cashed in the last six matchups.
The Giants are on a plethora of positive pointspread runs, including 20-6 overall, 19-7 on the road, 8-0 against winning teams, 9-2 after a SU win, 9-2 after a spread-cover and 4-1 against the NFC East (2-0 this year). The Eagles, meanwhile, are on ATS streaks of 6-2 overall, 4-0 in November, 4-1 against winning teams, 7-2 against the NFC and 6-2 after a SU win.
The under is 10-4 in New York’s last 14 road contests and 4-1 in its last five division games, but the over is 5-2 in its last seven overall. For Philadelphia, the under is on runs of 6-0 at home, 5-1 against winning teams and 7-3 inside the division, and the total has stayed low in the last three meetings between these teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
