CKO
10 *MIAMI over Seattle
Late Score Forecast:
*MIAMI 26 - Seattle 7
(Sunday, November 9)
Talk about teams going in opposite directions this year! The four-time defending NFC West champions from Seattle
can’t seem to keep their key skill players healthy. Meanwhile, the Dolphins—a sorry 1-15 last year—are 4-4 and
contending in the very competitive AFC East. They’ve been reborn under the construction of Bill Parcells in the front
office, the instruction of Tony Sparano in practice, and the leadership of QB Chad Pennington on the field. Pennington
is carefully guiding the passing attack, the improved 2008 Dolphin OL is opening holes, RB Ronnie Brown is back in
action, RB Ricky Williams has stayed on the straight & narrow, and the offense is providing valuable ball control for
a defense that now has some bite with OLB Joey Porter (11½ sacks) healthy. Longest road trip in the league for
Seattle!
TOTALS: UNDER (38) in the Carolina-Oakland Game—Panthers have gone “over” in only two games TY; don’t ask about the Raiders’ offense...OVER (46½) in the Kansas City-San Diego Game—The rested, healthy S.D. offense will be too much for the young Chiefs to contain, but K.C. has found an offense that fits QB Tyler Thigpen & speedy RB Jamaal Charles.
HONORABLE MENTION
NEW YORK GIANTS (+3) at Philadelphia (Sunday, Nov. 9)—G-men 15-3 vs. the spread their last 18 on the road; 10-2 their last 12 as a dog.
10 *MIAMI over Seattle
Late Score Forecast:
*MIAMI 26 - Seattle 7
(Sunday, November 9)
Talk about teams going in opposite directions this year! The four-time defending NFC West champions from Seattle
can’t seem to keep their key skill players healthy. Meanwhile, the Dolphins—a sorry 1-15 last year—are 4-4 and
contending in the very competitive AFC East. They’ve been reborn under the construction of Bill Parcells in the front
office, the instruction of Tony Sparano in practice, and the leadership of QB Chad Pennington on the field. Pennington
is carefully guiding the passing attack, the improved 2008 Dolphin OL is opening holes, RB Ronnie Brown is back in
action, RB Ricky Williams has stayed on the straight & narrow, and the offense is providing valuable ball control for
a defense that now has some bite with OLB Joey Porter (11½ sacks) healthy. Longest road trip in the league for
Seattle!
TOTALS: UNDER (38) in the Carolina-Oakland Game—Panthers have gone “over” in only two games TY; don’t ask about the Raiders’ offense...OVER (46½) in the Kansas City-San Diego Game—The rested, healthy S.D. offense will be too much for the young Chiefs to contain, but K.C. has found an offense that fits QB Tyler Thigpen & speedy RB Jamaal Charles.
HONORABLE MENTION
NEW YORK GIANTS (+3) at Philadelphia (Sunday, Nov. 9)—G-men 15-3 vs. the spread their last 18 on the road; 10-2 their last 12 as a dog.
NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEP
4) Angle Plays 27-9 75% L/4Y!
(4) CAROLINA
(3) NEW ORLEANS
(3) SAN DIEGO
SYSTEM SECTION
Play on any home team that scored 24 or more but lost their game before the bye.
1998-2008: 17-1 94%
THIS WEEK'S PLAY: SAN DIEGO
KEY SELECTIONS
4* Tennessee over CHICAGO - TEN was in a tough situation LW off a big MNF win vs IND & playing on a short week vs GB off a bye. They now travel for the 1st time in 3 Wks vs a CHI team that spent a lot of
energy to rally & beat DET LW. CHI will be without QB Orton (ankle) for 4 wks after being KO’d late in the 1H LW. TEN is 16-6 ATS vs the NFC. CHI is 1-7 SU & ATS as a non-conf dog. Both teams are designed
to work with a physical DL that brings pressure & can stop the run but TEN is the only one that can do both. TEN is allowing 92 ypg (3.8) rushing & the DL has 19.5 of their 22 sacks while CHI is allowing 82
ypg (3.5) but only has 10.5 of the teams 16 sacks. This allows TEN’s swift LB unit to drop into coverage & the #12 pass defense has a solid 4-13 TD/Int with a 6.0 ypa (62.3 QBR). CHI’s #30 pass defense took
another blow with FS Brown (calf) leaving LW’s game & they have a decent 9-12 ratio (6.3 ypa) & 72.7 QBR. We have won three 4H Key Selections with TEN TY & like Collins who has many more live snaps
TY than Grossman. TEN’s RB tandem of White & Johnson who have combined for 140 ypg (4.6) and will wear down the CHI defense for the win. FORECAST: Tennessee 23 CHICAGO 7
3* MIAMI over Seattle - This is the 2nd time in 4 Wks that SEA has to take a very long flight out to Florida. They got the backdoor cover vs TB by 1/2 pt on SNF on a TD drive with 1:55 left despite being
outFD 22-7 & outgained 204-176. SEA also has a HG vs ARZ on deck while MIA starts a 3 game home stand. SEA is 5-14 ATS in EST. MIA is 4-19 ATS as a HF. MIA was in a tough spot LW off a big win vs BUF & travelling to DEN who was coming in off a bye. MIA forced 3 TO’s which they turned into 13 pts & while they only outgained DEN by 22 yds they had a 13:04 TOP edge. MIA gets a much better matchup here vs a depleted SEA team that lost its best pass rusher in DE Kerney (shoulder) & could be without MLB Tatupu (groin) as well. SEA has only won the yardage battle once TY (STL Wk 3) & minus that game they have been outgained 393-233. While the Wild Cat offense has fizzled lately Pennington has passed for 271 ypg (71%) with a 9-3 ratio & 9.1 ypa the L6 games (5-1 ATS) & faces SEA’s #31 pass def with a 13-3 ratio. We’ll side with a vastly healthier MIA team (only 1 player listed as out LW) vs a SEA team that was without 6 starters LW. FORECAST: MIAMI 24 Seattle 9
OTHER SELECTIONS
2* DETROIT (+) over Jacksonville - This year’s JAX team is clearly not the same as the 2007 version as inj’s on the OL & 3 new starters on the DL have been tough to deal with. LY JAX avg’d 139 ypg
(4.4) rushing thru their 1st 8 games vs 110 ypg (4.0) TY. LY thru 8 games JAX defense had 20 sacks & posted an 8-8 ratio but they traded DT Stroud & are going with 2 rookie DE’s & have dropped to just
11 sacks & a 14-7 ratio. They come in off 2 bad losses to CLE & CIN & allowed CIN to top 300 yds for just the 2nd time TY. JAX is now 5-15 ATS as an AF & face a DET team that is now the lone winless
team in the NFL. DET blew a 10 pt lead at CHI LW despite KO Orton at the end of the 1H which will only tighten their focus here. DET won the yardage battle for the 1st time TY & Orlovsky had a decent
game with 292 yds (60%) with a 2-2 ratio but they couldn’t do anything on the ground as they were outrushed 154 (5.1) to 53 (2.0). 0-8 HD’s are 7-3 ATS & we’ll side with a DET team that has covered
3 of the its last 4 that is becoming increasingly desperate in a higher scoring game as the Ugly Dog Play which is now 23-10 (70%). FORECAST: DETROIT 24 Jacksonville 23
2* Carolina over OAKLAND - This is the 1st time since 1999 that CAR is on the road after their bye (3-0 ATS as fav) but they travelled to SD in Wk 1. The bye was good for CAR as they will finally have their starting OL together. Over the first 8 games the starting 5 has played for less than 2Q together. This is a great matchup for CAR who has the #13 & #9 units (+1 TO) the L4W vs the Raiders #31 & #31 units (0 TO’s). OAK’s #18 pass def is very misleading (11-7 ratio) as they allow 157 ypg (4.5) rushing which is a bad matchup vs a CAR team that is built for power rushing (#9 L4W). OAK was in a good situation LW vs a young QB in his 2nd straight road game coming cross country with a defense with only 1 solid playmaker in DE Abraham (10 sacks). They went on to get shutout 24-0 & were outgained 453-77 their lowest offensive total since 1961. OAK has been outscored by an avg of 25-7 under interim HC Cable with the only win being vs an overrated NYJ team coming cross country. They now face a rested & more explosive CAR team playing with confidence that only has DET on
deck & the road team is the play here. FORECAST: Carolina 31 OAKLAND 14
OTHER GAMES
Denver at CLEVELAND - Thursday - These teams were famous for their playoff games in the late 80’s & early 90’s. DEN beat CLE 17-7 as a 4 pt AF in the last meeting back in 2006. CLE couldn’t hold onto a 27-13
lead LW & let BAL score 24 unanswered pts with Edwards dropping a perfectly thrown game changing pass. DEN was outFD 11-3 & outgained 196-99 at the end of the 1H vs MIA & now have to travel on a short week. With both teams off embarrassing losses which coaching staff will have their team ready on a short week.
NEW ENGLAND 24 Buffalo 16 - NE is 9-0 SU & 7-2 ATS vs BUF. The Bills are a decent situation vs a NE team off 3 prime time games in 4 Wks & their biggest non-div rival in IND LW (4-1 ATS afterwards).
NE has the #9 & #11 units (+5 TO’s) vs BUF’s #20 & #17 units (-6 TO’s) the L4W. NE has faced 6 straight teams ranked 19th or lower on defense (inc IND) & have a 151 (4.4) to 93 (3.8) rush edge
prior to SNF. Cassel isn’t putting up great numbers but is improving despite an OL that is 29th in sacks allowed. BUF found themselves down 13-7 at the half LW after Edwards was int’d & the ball was ret’d
95 yds for a 14 pt swing. From there the Jets had a 249-188 yd edge, with the Bills SOD on the Jets 8, & held them to 3 offensive pts the rest of the day. If NE lost LW vs IND then the AFC East is in a 3
way tie. If they won they will be a full game up on the Jets. The NE coaching staff is used to preparing on a short week. We’ll side with NE to give BUF its 3rd straight div loss here.
New Orleans 34 ATLANTA 24 - NO has won the L4 meetings SU & are 6-2 ATS vs ATL. NO has the #3 & #16 units (-2 TO’s) the L4W vs ATL #5 & #15 units (-1 TO’s). LY NO came in with a very aggressive
gameplan & won 34-14 as a 3.5 pt AF. NO had 23-13 FD, 473-323 yd & 10:54 TOP edges. Brees has torched the Falcons avg 272 ypg (68%) with a 7-1 ratio with the Saints. While RB Deuce & both starting
DE’s have been named in the Starcaps incident they are unlikely to be suspended here. Ryan is 3-0 SU & ATS at home TY avg 218 ypg (71%) with a 3-0 ratio & impressive 10.7 ypa. ATL sets defenses up with the
run (163 ypg 4.7) & hits WR White (16 rec 17.8 at home) for the big play. ATL humiliated OAK LW with 20-0 FD & 309-(-2) yd edges at the end of the 1H with a 24-0 lead. They now find themselves vs matching up vs a NO team that has won the yardage battle in 6 of 8 games (427-311) with one game being in London in a win over SD. LW’s domination of the Raiders give us some line value here & we’ll side with a desperate NO team getting some points off a bye that should have all of Brees weapons 100% here.
NY JETS 27 St Louis 23 - This is a flat spot for both teams who are between division games. The Jets travel to NE for a Thur Night game & STL has a road game vs SF on deck. STL now has 4 games under
Haslett & has the #27 & #30 units (+4 TO’s) while the Jets who have the #15 & #4 units (-6 TO’s). The Jets handed BUF their 2nd straight div loss LW & were sparked by a 14 pt swing with a 92 yd int return
at the end of the 1Q. They posted a 249-188 yd edge over the rest of the game & held BUF to just 30 yds rushing (1.8). Favre has avg’d 219 yg (67%) but has a 3-8 ratio & 6.3 ypa the L4W. STL was thumped by
ARZ LW at home & had 7 punts, 2 TO & 1 SOD on their 1st 10 drives. Haslett pulled RB Jackson after the 1H to preserve him as they were down 24-7 & ARZ had 15-5 FD & 333-122 yd edges. While the Jets
are #2 in sacks by teams have been able to pass on them with 236 ypg passing (66%) with an 11-7 ratio. The Jets spent a lot of money on the roster TY but are only getting mediocre results. With a big game vs NE on deck we’ll side with a scrappy road team off a bad loss getting some line value here.
MINNESOTA 24 Green Bay 13 - GB beat MIN 24-19 as a 2 pt HF in MNF opener & have covered 4 of the L5. GB had a 17-6 lead in the 3Q when MIN scored on a 23 yd TD pass on 4th & 1 (2ptng). GB had a 57 yd run set up a QB sneak for a TD which MIN answered with an 11 play drive & TD. GB recovered the onside kick but went 3 & out only to seal the win with an int with 1:08 left. Rodgers had 178 yds passing (82%) with a 1-0 ratio but MIN had 16-4 FD & 255-94 yd edges in the 2H. GB is 6-1 ATS away vs a div foe. MIN is 6-3 ATS as a div fav. Both teams came in off their byes LW with GB being the healthiest since TC vs TEN. Facing MIN another stout passing team for the 4th time TY (IND, NO, CHI) vs HOU. GB still gave up 178 yds (4.9) to TEN & now gets RB Peterson (124 ypg 5.2 L3W) who immediately noted after TY’s game that he was priming himself for the rematch. MIN’s defense tallied 5 sacks, 3 TO’s & held HOU to 62 yds rushing (3.9) LW. While Rodgers has proven himself to be a capable replacement he hasn’t started at the Metrodome. We’ll side with a solid run game setting up a solid pass rush (#4 sacks) with a manageable line.
SAN DIEGO 38 Kansas City 10 - The home team is 7-3-1 ATS in the series. This game has SD’s #16 & #24 units (-4 TO’s) the L4W vs KC’s #28 & #32 units (+5 TO’s). SD is 8-2 ATS vs a div foe. KC is 1-5 ATS vs a div foe. SD returns from its bye week (6-2 ATS) having made a bold move in firing DC Cottrell & promoting former CHI DC Rivera from LB coach to that spot. Cottrell had SD running more coverage schemes than LY & were much more passive than the 2H of LY. This & the fact that Merriman’s spot in the defense has had 3 diff starters due to injury have SD with the #32 pass def allowing 265 ypg (68%) with a 14-6 ratio with 4 games of 0 int. The offense has been slowed by Tomlinson’s foot injury but he has extra rest & has avg’d 169 ypg (7.5) the L3 games vs KC who are allowing 182 ypg (5.4) rushing TY. KC has gotten good play from Thigpen (222 ypg 64% 3-0 L2W) as they have been running the same spread offense that he did at Coastal Carolina & taking advantage of his mobility. We are well aware that SD is 1-6 ATS as a DD HF but they could afford to look past the lightweights
& now have to rebound after a disappointing start.
PITTSBURGH 24 Indianapolis 21 - Both teams are off primetime games. PIT has the #21 & #1 units (-4 TO’s) vs IND #22 & #10 (+5 TO’s). PIT has a big surface edge vs an IND team that is 5-10 ATS on grass
and the Pitt Panthers play here on Sat & the stadium is known to host high school games also. Despite being annual playoff teams this is the 1st meeting since 2005. PIT is 2-5 ATS as a HF. IND is 6-3-1 ATS as a
non-div AD. PIT’s OL (#27 sacks) gets a good matchup vs a DL that will have some of its speed negated on grass where it only has 3 sacks in 3 games TY. PIT expected RB Parker (122 ypg 5.7 1st 2 Wks) to return after missing 4 games vs WAS & he gets to face an IND def allowing 144 ypg (4.2). IND got RB Addai & FS Sanders back vs NE but they lost #1 CB Jackson (ACL/MCL) for the year in practice. Minus the PHI & NYG games Roethlisberger is avg 206 ypg (65%) with a 9-2 ratio (107.5 QBR). Manning is having his worst stats since his rookie year with 251 ypg (61%) with a 10-9 ratio (79.0) due to missing preseason & an OL that has fielded 4 diff starting lineups TY. With both teams hit by injuries & off big games we’ll call for a slight lean for now with the home team & wait for a better indication of the line.
Baltimore 20 HOUSTON 17 - The road team has covered 2 straight & this is the best passing offense BAL has faced since a 31-3 loss to IND. BAL is 1-6 ATS away vs a non-div foe. HOU is 6-3 ATS hosting
a non-div foe. This is BAL’s 4th road game in 5 Wks & they have another on deck. BAL was able to survive LW’s game vs CLE without its top 3 DB’s & some poor spec teams play (278 return yds). BAL
has only been outgained in 2 games TY (IND & MIA) & if those are omitted BAL has a 329-213 yd edge with a 24-16 margin. They now get a HOU team that has won the yardage battle in its L6 games
but have only faced 1 def ranked better than 15th (MIN #11) in that span. HOU is 0-3 SU & ATS vs 3 of the more physical defenses TY (PIT, TEN, MIN) being outrushed 171 (4.7) to 94 (4.4). HOU may
start Rosenfels here as Schaub (left knee) left LW’s game after 2 TO’s which MIN converted into 7 pts. Flacco has only had 1 bad road game (IND) & has hit for 228 ypg (65%) with a 4-3 ratio (87.9) & look
for HOU to lose to a more physical & aggressive defense for the 2nd week in a row.
NY Giants at PHILADELPHIA - NYG swept the series LY & dominated the 1st game vs a PHI squad without RB Westbrook, LT Thomas, CB Sheppard & FS Dawkins. The Giants tied an NFL record with 12
sacks & PHI avoided a shutout with a 53 yd FG early 4Q. Vs a fully staffed PHI team in the 2nd meeting NYG won 16-13 as a 3 pt AD as PHI couldn’t capitalize on red-zone drives. Both teams have been playing fantastic ball with the Giants #5 & #3 units (+6 TO’s) vs the Eagles #6 & #5 units (+6 TO’s). The Giants have a big lead in the NFC East but PHI already has 2 div losses & can ill afford a 3rd for tie breakers.
San Francisco at ARIZONA - New 49ers HC Singletary used the bye week to install Shaun Hill (2-1 SU & ATS LY) in as his starting QB. Hill came in during the 2H vs SEA & is more mobile than O’Sullivan
& avg’d 108 ypg (68%) with a 5-2 ratio LY but only had a 6.3 ypa. Singletary is also shaking up the OL to go with a more smash mouth attack but that remains to be seen with Martz remaining the OC. ARZ is
off 2 road games vs CAR & STL & has a road game vs SEA on deck. ARZ beat SF 23-13 as a 2.5 pt AF in the 1st meeting but SF has the advantage of being a bit of an unknown at this point in the year & the
visitor is 5-1-1 ATS.
OVER/UNDERS
The 3* Totals are 16-11 59%
3* Saints/Falcons Over 48
3* Rams/Jets Over 46
3* Packers/Vikings Under 47
2* Colts/Steelers Under 43*
2* Seahawks/Dolphins Under 43
4) Angle Plays 27-9 75% L/4Y!
(4) CAROLINA
(3) NEW ORLEANS
(3) SAN DIEGO
SYSTEM SECTION
Play on any home team that scored 24 or more but lost their game before the bye.
1998-2008: 17-1 94%
THIS WEEK'S PLAY: SAN DIEGO
KEY SELECTIONS
4* Tennessee over CHICAGO - TEN was in a tough situation LW off a big MNF win vs IND & playing on a short week vs GB off a bye. They now travel for the 1st time in 3 Wks vs a CHI team that spent a lot of
energy to rally & beat DET LW. CHI will be without QB Orton (ankle) for 4 wks after being KO’d late in the 1H LW. TEN is 16-6 ATS vs the NFC. CHI is 1-7 SU & ATS as a non-conf dog. Both teams are designed
to work with a physical DL that brings pressure & can stop the run but TEN is the only one that can do both. TEN is allowing 92 ypg (3.8) rushing & the DL has 19.5 of their 22 sacks while CHI is allowing 82
ypg (3.5) but only has 10.5 of the teams 16 sacks. This allows TEN’s swift LB unit to drop into coverage & the #12 pass defense has a solid 4-13 TD/Int with a 6.0 ypa (62.3 QBR). CHI’s #30 pass defense took
another blow with FS Brown (calf) leaving LW’s game & they have a decent 9-12 ratio (6.3 ypa) & 72.7 QBR. We have won three 4H Key Selections with TEN TY & like Collins who has many more live snaps
TY than Grossman. TEN’s RB tandem of White & Johnson who have combined for 140 ypg (4.6) and will wear down the CHI defense for the win. FORECAST: Tennessee 23 CHICAGO 7
3* MIAMI over Seattle - This is the 2nd time in 4 Wks that SEA has to take a very long flight out to Florida. They got the backdoor cover vs TB by 1/2 pt on SNF on a TD drive with 1:55 left despite being
outFD 22-7 & outgained 204-176. SEA also has a HG vs ARZ on deck while MIA starts a 3 game home stand. SEA is 5-14 ATS in EST. MIA is 4-19 ATS as a HF. MIA was in a tough spot LW off a big win vs BUF & travelling to DEN who was coming in off a bye. MIA forced 3 TO’s which they turned into 13 pts & while they only outgained DEN by 22 yds they had a 13:04 TOP edge. MIA gets a much better matchup here vs a depleted SEA team that lost its best pass rusher in DE Kerney (shoulder) & could be without MLB Tatupu (groin) as well. SEA has only won the yardage battle once TY (STL Wk 3) & minus that game they have been outgained 393-233. While the Wild Cat offense has fizzled lately Pennington has passed for 271 ypg (71%) with a 9-3 ratio & 9.1 ypa the L6 games (5-1 ATS) & faces SEA’s #31 pass def with a 13-3 ratio. We’ll side with a vastly healthier MIA team (only 1 player listed as out LW) vs a SEA team that was without 6 starters LW. FORECAST: MIAMI 24 Seattle 9
OTHER SELECTIONS
2* DETROIT (+) over Jacksonville - This year’s JAX team is clearly not the same as the 2007 version as inj’s on the OL & 3 new starters on the DL have been tough to deal with. LY JAX avg’d 139 ypg
(4.4) rushing thru their 1st 8 games vs 110 ypg (4.0) TY. LY thru 8 games JAX defense had 20 sacks & posted an 8-8 ratio but they traded DT Stroud & are going with 2 rookie DE’s & have dropped to just
11 sacks & a 14-7 ratio. They come in off 2 bad losses to CLE & CIN & allowed CIN to top 300 yds for just the 2nd time TY. JAX is now 5-15 ATS as an AF & face a DET team that is now the lone winless
team in the NFL. DET blew a 10 pt lead at CHI LW despite KO Orton at the end of the 1H which will only tighten their focus here. DET won the yardage battle for the 1st time TY & Orlovsky had a decent
game with 292 yds (60%) with a 2-2 ratio but they couldn’t do anything on the ground as they were outrushed 154 (5.1) to 53 (2.0). 0-8 HD’s are 7-3 ATS & we’ll side with a DET team that has covered
3 of the its last 4 that is becoming increasingly desperate in a higher scoring game as the Ugly Dog Play which is now 23-10 (70%). FORECAST: DETROIT 24 Jacksonville 23
2* Carolina over OAKLAND - This is the 1st time since 1999 that CAR is on the road after their bye (3-0 ATS as fav) but they travelled to SD in Wk 1. The bye was good for CAR as they will finally have their starting OL together. Over the first 8 games the starting 5 has played for less than 2Q together. This is a great matchup for CAR who has the #13 & #9 units (+1 TO) the L4W vs the Raiders #31 & #31 units (0 TO’s). OAK’s #18 pass def is very misleading (11-7 ratio) as they allow 157 ypg (4.5) rushing which is a bad matchup vs a CAR team that is built for power rushing (#9 L4W). OAK was in a good situation LW vs a young QB in his 2nd straight road game coming cross country with a defense with only 1 solid playmaker in DE Abraham (10 sacks). They went on to get shutout 24-0 & were outgained 453-77 their lowest offensive total since 1961. OAK has been outscored by an avg of 25-7 under interim HC Cable with the only win being vs an overrated NYJ team coming cross country. They now face a rested & more explosive CAR team playing with confidence that only has DET on
deck & the road team is the play here. FORECAST: Carolina 31 OAKLAND 14
OTHER GAMES
Denver at CLEVELAND - Thursday - These teams were famous for their playoff games in the late 80’s & early 90’s. DEN beat CLE 17-7 as a 4 pt AF in the last meeting back in 2006. CLE couldn’t hold onto a 27-13
lead LW & let BAL score 24 unanswered pts with Edwards dropping a perfectly thrown game changing pass. DEN was outFD 11-3 & outgained 196-99 at the end of the 1H vs MIA & now have to travel on a short week. With both teams off embarrassing losses which coaching staff will have their team ready on a short week.
NEW ENGLAND 24 Buffalo 16 - NE is 9-0 SU & 7-2 ATS vs BUF. The Bills are a decent situation vs a NE team off 3 prime time games in 4 Wks & their biggest non-div rival in IND LW (4-1 ATS afterwards).
NE has the #9 & #11 units (+5 TO’s) vs BUF’s #20 & #17 units (-6 TO’s) the L4W. NE has faced 6 straight teams ranked 19th or lower on defense (inc IND) & have a 151 (4.4) to 93 (3.8) rush edge
prior to SNF. Cassel isn’t putting up great numbers but is improving despite an OL that is 29th in sacks allowed. BUF found themselves down 13-7 at the half LW after Edwards was int’d & the ball was ret’d
95 yds for a 14 pt swing. From there the Jets had a 249-188 yd edge, with the Bills SOD on the Jets 8, & held them to 3 offensive pts the rest of the day. If NE lost LW vs IND then the AFC East is in a 3
way tie. If they won they will be a full game up on the Jets. The NE coaching staff is used to preparing on a short week. We’ll side with NE to give BUF its 3rd straight div loss here.
New Orleans 34 ATLANTA 24 - NO has won the L4 meetings SU & are 6-2 ATS vs ATL. NO has the #3 & #16 units (-2 TO’s) the L4W vs ATL #5 & #15 units (-1 TO’s). LY NO came in with a very aggressive
gameplan & won 34-14 as a 3.5 pt AF. NO had 23-13 FD, 473-323 yd & 10:54 TOP edges. Brees has torched the Falcons avg 272 ypg (68%) with a 7-1 ratio with the Saints. While RB Deuce & both starting
DE’s have been named in the Starcaps incident they are unlikely to be suspended here. Ryan is 3-0 SU & ATS at home TY avg 218 ypg (71%) with a 3-0 ratio & impressive 10.7 ypa. ATL sets defenses up with the
run (163 ypg 4.7) & hits WR White (16 rec 17.8 at home) for the big play. ATL humiliated OAK LW with 20-0 FD & 309-(-2) yd edges at the end of the 1H with a 24-0 lead. They now find themselves vs matching up vs a NO team that has won the yardage battle in 6 of 8 games (427-311) with one game being in London in a win over SD. LW’s domination of the Raiders give us some line value here & we’ll side with a desperate NO team getting some points off a bye that should have all of Brees weapons 100% here.
NY JETS 27 St Louis 23 - This is a flat spot for both teams who are between division games. The Jets travel to NE for a Thur Night game & STL has a road game vs SF on deck. STL now has 4 games under
Haslett & has the #27 & #30 units (+4 TO’s) while the Jets who have the #15 & #4 units (-6 TO’s). The Jets handed BUF their 2nd straight div loss LW & were sparked by a 14 pt swing with a 92 yd int return
at the end of the 1Q. They posted a 249-188 yd edge over the rest of the game & held BUF to just 30 yds rushing (1.8). Favre has avg’d 219 yg (67%) but has a 3-8 ratio & 6.3 ypa the L4W. STL was thumped by
ARZ LW at home & had 7 punts, 2 TO & 1 SOD on their 1st 10 drives. Haslett pulled RB Jackson after the 1H to preserve him as they were down 24-7 & ARZ had 15-5 FD & 333-122 yd edges. While the Jets
are #2 in sacks by teams have been able to pass on them with 236 ypg passing (66%) with an 11-7 ratio. The Jets spent a lot of money on the roster TY but are only getting mediocre results. With a big game vs NE on deck we’ll side with a scrappy road team off a bad loss getting some line value here.
MINNESOTA 24 Green Bay 13 - GB beat MIN 24-19 as a 2 pt HF in MNF opener & have covered 4 of the L5. GB had a 17-6 lead in the 3Q when MIN scored on a 23 yd TD pass on 4th & 1 (2ptng). GB had a 57 yd run set up a QB sneak for a TD which MIN answered with an 11 play drive & TD. GB recovered the onside kick but went 3 & out only to seal the win with an int with 1:08 left. Rodgers had 178 yds passing (82%) with a 1-0 ratio but MIN had 16-4 FD & 255-94 yd edges in the 2H. GB is 6-1 ATS away vs a div foe. MIN is 6-3 ATS as a div fav. Both teams came in off their byes LW with GB being the healthiest since TC vs TEN. Facing MIN another stout passing team for the 4th time TY (IND, NO, CHI) vs HOU. GB still gave up 178 yds (4.9) to TEN & now gets RB Peterson (124 ypg 5.2 L3W) who immediately noted after TY’s game that he was priming himself for the rematch. MIN’s defense tallied 5 sacks, 3 TO’s & held HOU to 62 yds rushing (3.9) LW. While Rodgers has proven himself to be a capable replacement he hasn’t started at the Metrodome. We’ll side with a solid run game setting up a solid pass rush (#4 sacks) with a manageable line.
SAN DIEGO 38 Kansas City 10 - The home team is 7-3-1 ATS in the series. This game has SD’s #16 & #24 units (-4 TO’s) the L4W vs KC’s #28 & #32 units (+5 TO’s). SD is 8-2 ATS vs a div foe. KC is 1-5 ATS vs a div foe. SD returns from its bye week (6-2 ATS) having made a bold move in firing DC Cottrell & promoting former CHI DC Rivera from LB coach to that spot. Cottrell had SD running more coverage schemes than LY & were much more passive than the 2H of LY. This & the fact that Merriman’s spot in the defense has had 3 diff starters due to injury have SD with the #32 pass def allowing 265 ypg (68%) with a 14-6 ratio with 4 games of 0 int. The offense has been slowed by Tomlinson’s foot injury but he has extra rest & has avg’d 169 ypg (7.5) the L3 games vs KC who are allowing 182 ypg (5.4) rushing TY. KC has gotten good play from Thigpen (222 ypg 64% 3-0 L2W) as they have been running the same spread offense that he did at Coastal Carolina & taking advantage of his mobility. We are well aware that SD is 1-6 ATS as a DD HF but they could afford to look past the lightweights
& now have to rebound after a disappointing start.
PITTSBURGH 24 Indianapolis 21 - Both teams are off primetime games. PIT has the #21 & #1 units (-4 TO’s) vs IND #22 & #10 (+5 TO’s). PIT has a big surface edge vs an IND team that is 5-10 ATS on grass
and the Pitt Panthers play here on Sat & the stadium is known to host high school games also. Despite being annual playoff teams this is the 1st meeting since 2005. PIT is 2-5 ATS as a HF. IND is 6-3-1 ATS as a
non-div AD. PIT’s OL (#27 sacks) gets a good matchup vs a DL that will have some of its speed negated on grass where it only has 3 sacks in 3 games TY. PIT expected RB Parker (122 ypg 5.7 1st 2 Wks) to return after missing 4 games vs WAS & he gets to face an IND def allowing 144 ypg (4.2). IND got RB Addai & FS Sanders back vs NE but they lost #1 CB Jackson (ACL/MCL) for the year in practice. Minus the PHI & NYG games Roethlisberger is avg 206 ypg (65%) with a 9-2 ratio (107.5 QBR). Manning is having his worst stats since his rookie year with 251 ypg (61%) with a 10-9 ratio (79.0) due to missing preseason & an OL that has fielded 4 diff starting lineups TY. With both teams hit by injuries & off big games we’ll call for a slight lean for now with the home team & wait for a better indication of the line.
Baltimore 20 HOUSTON 17 - The road team has covered 2 straight & this is the best passing offense BAL has faced since a 31-3 loss to IND. BAL is 1-6 ATS away vs a non-div foe. HOU is 6-3 ATS hosting
a non-div foe. This is BAL’s 4th road game in 5 Wks & they have another on deck. BAL was able to survive LW’s game vs CLE without its top 3 DB’s & some poor spec teams play (278 return yds). BAL
has only been outgained in 2 games TY (IND & MIA) & if those are omitted BAL has a 329-213 yd edge with a 24-16 margin. They now get a HOU team that has won the yardage battle in its L6 games
but have only faced 1 def ranked better than 15th (MIN #11) in that span. HOU is 0-3 SU & ATS vs 3 of the more physical defenses TY (PIT, TEN, MIN) being outrushed 171 (4.7) to 94 (4.4). HOU may
start Rosenfels here as Schaub (left knee) left LW’s game after 2 TO’s which MIN converted into 7 pts. Flacco has only had 1 bad road game (IND) & has hit for 228 ypg (65%) with a 4-3 ratio (87.9) & look
for HOU to lose to a more physical & aggressive defense for the 2nd week in a row.
NY Giants at PHILADELPHIA - NYG swept the series LY & dominated the 1st game vs a PHI squad without RB Westbrook, LT Thomas, CB Sheppard & FS Dawkins. The Giants tied an NFL record with 12
sacks & PHI avoided a shutout with a 53 yd FG early 4Q. Vs a fully staffed PHI team in the 2nd meeting NYG won 16-13 as a 3 pt AD as PHI couldn’t capitalize on red-zone drives. Both teams have been playing fantastic ball with the Giants #5 & #3 units (+6 TO’s) vs the Eagles #6 & #5 units (+6 TO’s). The Giants have a big lead in the NFC East but PHI already has 2 div losses & can ill afford a 3rd for tie breakers.
San Francisco at ARIZONA - New 49ers HC Singletary used the bye week to install Shaun Hill (2-1 SU & ATS LY) in as his starting QB. Hill came in during the 2H vs SEA & is more mobile than O’Sullivan
& avg’d 108 ypg (68%) with a 5-2 ratio LY but only had a 6.3 ypa. Singletary is also shaking up the OL to go with a more smash mouth attack but that remains to be seen with Martz remaining the OC. ARZ is
off 2 road games vs CAR & STL & has a road game vs SEA on deck. ARZ beat SF 23-13 as a 2.5 pt AF in the 1st meeting but SF has the advantage of being a bit of an unknown at this point in the year & the
visitor is 5-1-1 ATS.
OVER/UNDERS
The 3* Totals are 16-11 59%
3* Saints/Falcons Over 48
3* Rams/Jets Over 46
3* Packers/Vikings Under 47
2* Colts/Steelers Under 43*
2* Seahawks/Dolphins Under 43
Last edited:
Doug Williams
Kansas City Chiefs (+15) Over San Diego Chargers (-15) -- Double digit favorites are not good to bet on. It's as simple as that. Don't forget about how disappointing the Chargers have been this season. They're still better than the Chiefs, but not 15 points better.
Philadelphia Eagles (-3) Over New York Giants (+3) -- Sure the defending champs look NASTY this season, but they did also loose to Cleveland...Also, with a recent World Series win, Philly is electric and the home crowd is going to push the Eagles over the G-men.
New England Patriots (-3.5) Over Buffalo Bills (+3.5) -- Bills have lost 9 straight to the Patriots, and they've been having a really tough time stopping the #1 WR against a lot of teams this season -- Randy Moss can still game and is good enough to make the 3.5 point difference.
San Francisco 49ers (+9.5) Over Arizona Cardinals (-9.5) -- I still think the Cards are legit, but this is prime time MNF and anything can happen. This is a high line and they haven't been converting this year. Go with the trend and cash in on Monday
Kansas City Chiefs (+15) Over San Diego Chargers (-15) -- Double digit favorites are not good to bet on. It's as simple as that. Don't forget about how disappointing the Chargers have been this season. They're still better than the Chiefs, but not 15 points better.
Philadelphia Eagles (-3) Over New York Giants (+3) -- Sure the defending champs look NASTY this season, but they did also loose to Cleveland...Also, with a recent World Series win, Philly is electric and the home crowd is going to push the Eagles over the G-men.
New England Patriots (-3.5) Over Buffalo Bills (+3.5) -- Bills have lost 9 straight to the Patriots, and they've been having a really tough time stopping the #1 WR against a lot of teams this season -- Randy Moss can still game and is good enough to make the 3.5 point difference.
San Francisco 49ers (+9.5) Over Arizona Cardinals (-9.5) -- I still think the Cards are legit, but this is prime time MNF and anything can happen. This is a high line and they haven't been converting this year. Go with the trend and cash in on Monday
Tiznow214, where did this play come from? posted as a comp see below...
Today’s Free Pick
GAME: Baltimore Ravens @ Houston Texans Nov 9, 2008 1:00PM
SPORT: National Football League Picks
PICK: Houston Texans
Offered at: 1 betED
REASON FOR PICK: I was on the Texans for a big play over the Ravens in Week Two before the game was postponed due to the hurricane. Even though this game is being played eight weeks later, a lot of the same situations are in place even though it is further down the road. Coincidentally, Baltimore is coming off a road win over a divisional rival, similar to the spot it was in Week Two when it defeated Cincinnati. This was supposed to be Baltimore’s bye week but it is now a second of three straight road games.
Also similar to Week Two, the Texans were coming off a road loss against a similar team with a stout defense. Then it was the Steelers, this time it was the Vikings. Houston had chances to win that game but it gave up too many big plays, something this week’s opponent is not capable of. The Texans are 3-5 but believe it or not, a win here puts then just a game out of the final Wild Card spot as they, along with Baltimore, the loser of the Bills/Pats game and possibly the Colts at a 4-5 tie.
We see that this line opened at -2.5 for Houston and now it is the underdog. The absence of quarterback Matt Schaub is the reason for this big line swing but I think it is unjustified. Schaub is a solid quarterback but Sage Rosenfels is a very capable backup as he showed last week when he wax forced into action, throwing for 224 yards on 21-29 passing. His quarterback rating is actually better than Schaub’s although he does not come close to the same amount of snaps taken.
The Raven offense as mentioned is not an offense that can make big plays and that is what has hurt the Texas on defense this season. Take away some big plays and losses against the Colts, Jaguars and Vikings might never have happened. Houston is a very respectable 17th in the NFL in total defense, allowing 328.9 ypg. It is 18th against the run 13th against the pass so this is not a horrible unit at all. It is the big plays that have them giving up 26.6 ppg, 27th in the league. Baltimore is an average 19th in total offense.
That win by Baltimore put it in a similar spot it would have been in Week Two but it also puts it into a solid situation favoring the Texans. Play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are coming off a double digit road win, in the second half of the season. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) since 1983 with the average point differential being +6.4 ppg. Houston has covered 11 of its last 15 home games against teams with a winning road record so it has been up to the challenge and will do so again. 3* Houston Texans<!-- / message -->
Jake Timlin
500♦ Miami Dolphins
Playing a very bad Seattle team who is being asked make the longest road trip in the league I like Miami to roll at home today. I mean given how improved the Dolphins are this year I just don’t see a 2-6 Seattle team keeping thing close on South Beach. Not when Seattle will be traveling three time zones to play a early Sunday game as no Pacific time zone team has traveled to the east coast and won this season losing all 12 games played while burning money along the way going 2-9-1 ATS. Even worst for Seattle they will be making their second trip to Florida in just four weeks and doing so still without their starting quarterback and a key wide receiver things are stacked against the Seahawks today. Meanwhile, for Miami they are full of confidence having won their last two games behind a now dangerous offense and nasty defense. Easy call… Take the Dolphins minus the points as they blowout the Seahawks.
All Miami!
100♦ Kansas City Chiefs
All Kansas City plus the road points here. Yep, even though the Chiefs suck there is no reason why San Diego is laying this big of a spread today. Not when the Chargers have struggled all season long on both sides of the ball and more struggles expected today due to their London hangover. Meanwhile, going for the Chiefs is the fact that road teams of 9’ or more are an amazing 9-2 ATS this season as Kansas City has gone 4-1 ATS this season alone when grabbing 9’ or more. So backing a Kansas City team that is showing offensive life in their last two games by scoring 51 total points I look for the Chiefs to keep things closer then expected as they cover for the third straight week. Take Kansas City plus the points!
500♦ Miami Dolphins
Playing a very bad Seattle team who is being asked make the longest road trip in the league I like Miami to roll at home today. I mean given how improved the Dolphins are this year I just don’t see a 2-6 Seattle team keeping thing close on South Beach. Not when Seattle will be traveling three time zones to play a early Sunday game as no Pacific time zone team has traveled to the east coast and won this season losing all 12 games played while burning money along the way going 2-9-1 ATS. Even worst for Seattle they will be making their second trip to Florida in just four weeks and doing so still without their starting quarterback and a key wide receiver things are stacked against the Seahawks today. Meanwhile, for Miami they are full of confidence having won their last two games behind a now dangerous offense and nasty defense. Easy call… Take the Dolphins minus the points as they blowout the Seahawks.
All Miami!
100♦ Kansas City Chiefs
All Kansas City plus the road points here. Yep, even though the Chiefs suck there is no reason why San Diego is laying this big of a spread today. Not when the Chargers have struggled all season long on both sides of the ball and more struggles expected today due to their London hangover. Meanwhile, going for the Chiefs is the fact that road teams of 9’ or more are an amazing 9-2 ATS this season as Kansas City has gone 4-1 ATS this season alone when grabbing 9’ or more. So backing a Kansas City team that is showing offensive life in their last two games by scoring 51 total points I look for the Chiefs to keep things closer then expected as they cover for the third straight week. Take Kansas City plus the points!
Robert Ferringo
3-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 50.0 New Orleans at Atlanta (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 9)
2-Unit Play. Take #218 Atlanta (-1) over New Orleans (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 9)
2.5-Unit Play. Take #232 Philadelphia (-3) over New York Giants (8 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 9)
2.5-Unit Play. Take #228 San Diego (-15) over Kansas City (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 9)
2.5-Unit Play. Take #214 Chicago (+3) over Tennessee (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 9)
2-Unit Play. Take #235 Baltimore (Pk) over Houston (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 9)
3-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 50.0 New Orleans at Atlanta (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 9)
2-Unit Play. Take #218 Atlanta (-1) over New Orleans (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 9)
2.5-Unit Play. Take #232 Philadelphia (-3) over New York Giants (8 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 9)
2.5-Unit Play. Take #228 San Diego (-15) over Kansas City (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 9)
2.5-Unit Play. Take #214 Chicago (+3) over Tennessee (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 9)
2-Unit Play. Take #235 Baltimore (Pk) over Houston (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 9)
