Larry Ness REASON FOR PICK: The 10-0 Colts are tied with the Saints for the best record in the NFL and own a three-game lead in the chase for the AFC's top seed. The Colts also own a 19-game regular season winning streak, which is the second-longest in NFL history behind New England's 21-game run from 2006-08. Nothing has gone wrong for Indy all season, although not much has come easy lately, as the Colts last four wins have been by a combined total of 10 points. Indy edged the 49ers 18-14 in Week 8. The Colts then hung on for a 20-17 Week 9 win over the Texans at home, when Houston's Kris Brown missed a potential game-tying 42-yard FG as time expired. Up next was Indy's 35-34 victory over the Patriots in that now-famous Sunday night game. The Colts scored 14 points in the final 2:23 of that game, taking advantage of Bill Belichick's risky fourth-down gamble, allowing Peyton Manning to hit Reggie Wayne in the end zone for the winning score with 13 seconds left. After those three home wins, Indy's latest 'thriller' came last Sunday at Baltimore, when Gary Brackett intercepted Joe Flacco's pass at the Indianapolis 13-yard line with 2:42 remaining which preserved a 17-15 win. The Texans could use a little bit of the Colts' good fortune. Houston took a three-game winning streak into that 20-17 loss at Indy (Texans were 5-3 for the first-time in team history), then had a bye week. This past Monday, the Texans again lost just 20-17, as Brown missed another potential game-tying 49-yard FG attempt with one second remaining against the Titans. The Texans have never had a winning season (have finished 8-8 three times, including the last two seasons) and know they'll have to win a majority of their last six games to secure their first winning season in eight years (and maybe, a playoff berth). Getting a win against Indy may not be that easy, considering the Colts are 14-1 all-time vs the Texans. Peyton has been pretty good (a HUGE understatement) vs the Texans, throwing for 4,177 yards with 34 TDs and just six interceptions. Manning is suffering from a glute injury but returned to practice on Wednesday and is probable (he's NEVER missed a game and WON'T here!). WRs receivers Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon plus RBs Joseph Addai and Donald Brown are all less than 100% but will play. Matt Schaub is no Manning but he already owns a career-best 19 TD passes (with six games left) and after throwing for 305 yards and two TDs last week, has six 300-yard games this year (19-9 ratio in '09 / 67.1% / QB rating of 98.9). Houston WR Andre Johnson is "as good as it gets" and had 10 catches for 103 yards against the Colts earlier this month. The Colts are LONG overdue for a slip-up and after back-to-back hard-luck losses, this looks like a great spot for the Texans. Neither team has much of a running game, as the Texans rank 30th in the NFL with 87.4 YPG and the Colts ranking 31st at 85.0 YPG. The first time around the score was 20-17 but that could be this game's halftime score. Note that these teams have averaged 57.2 PPG in their six meetings the previous three season with the lowest game score being 51 points. 8* on the Hou Texans.
Larry Ness
REASON FOR PICK: The 10-0 Colts are tied with the Saints for the best record in the NFL and own a three-game lead in the chase for the AFC's top seed. The Colts also own a 19-game regular season winning streak, which is the second-longest in NFL history behind New England's 21-game run from 2006-08. Nothing has gone wrong for Indy all season, although not much has come easy lately, as the Colts last four wins have been by a combined total of 10 points. Indy edged the 49ers 18-14 in Week 8. The Colts then hung on for a 20-17 Week 9 win over the Texans at home, when Houston's Kris Brown missed a potential game-tying 42-yard FG as time expired. Up next was Indy's 35-34 victory over the Patriots in that now-famous Sunday night game. The Colts scored 14 points in the final 2:23 of that game, taking advantage of Bill Belichick's risky fourth-down gamble, allowing Peyton Manning to hit Reggie Wayne in the end zone for the winning score with 13 seconds left. After those three home wins, Indy's latest 'thriller' came last Sunday at Baltimore, when Gary Brackett intercepted Joe Flacco's pass at the Indianapolis 13-yard line with 2:42 remaining which preserved a 17-15 win. The Texans could use a little bit of the Colts' good fortune. Houston took a three-game winning streak into that 20-17 loss at Indy (Texans were 5-3 for the first-time in team history), then had a bye week. This past Monday, the Texans again lost just 20-17, as Brown missed another potential game-tying 49-yard FG attempt with one second remaining against the Titans. The Texans have never had a winning season (have finished 8-8 three times, including the last two seasons) and know they'll have to win a majority of their last six games to secure their first winning season in eight years (and maybe, a playoff berth). Getting a win against Indy may not be that easy, considering the Colts are 14-1 all-time vs the Texans. Peyton has been pretty good (a HUGE understatement) vs the Texans, throwing for 4,177 yards with 34 TDs and just six interceptions. Manning is suffering from a glute injury but returned to practice on Wednesday and is probable (he's NEVER missed a game and WON'T here!). WRs receivers Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon plus RBs Joseph Addai and Donald Brown are all less than 100% but will play. Matt Schaub is no Manning but he already owns a career-best 19 TD passes (with six games left) and after throwing for 305 yards and two TDs last week, has six 300-yard games this year (19-9 ratio in '09 / 67.1% / QB rating of 98.9). Houston WR Andre Johnson is "as good as it gets" and had 10 catches for 103 yards against the Colts earlier this month. The Colts are LONG overdue for a slip-up and after back-to-back hard-luck losses, this looks like a great spot for the Texans. Neither team has much of a running game, as the Texans rank 30th in the NFL with 87.4 YPG and the Colts ranking 31st at 85.0 YPG. The first time around the score was 20-17 but that could be this game's halftime score. Note that these teams have averaged 57.2 PPG in their six meetings the previous three season with the lowest game score being 51 points. 8* on Indy/Hou Over.
Larry Ness
REASON FOR PICK: Atlanta hired head coach Mike Smith and drafted QB Matt Ryan with the third overall pick in 2008 in an attempt to "wipe the slate clean" after the Michael Vick 'nightmare' as well as Bobby Petrino's "cameo appearance" as the team's head coach. Atlanta shocked everyone by going from 4-12 in 2007 to 11-5 and a postseason berth in 2008. The Falcons opened this year 4-1 and a second straight postseason appearance looked likely but Atlanta comes into this game having lost FOUR of its last five games. As for the Bucs, they won the NFC South is 2007 with a 9-7 record and after 12 games of the 2008 season stood at 9-3, However, they suffered a complete 'meltdown,' losing their final four games to miss the playoffs. Gruden was let go and inexperienced Raheem Morris was named head coach. Tampa Bay's poor play has continued in 2009, as the Bucs are just 1-9. The team's lone win came in Week 9 at home against the Packers, as rookie Josh Freeman threw three TDs in his first career start. The Bucs trailed 28-17 into the 4th quarter of that game but Freeman's two TD passes plus a 35-yard interception TD gave Tampa a 38-28 win. However, teams now own some game-film on Freeman and the Saints held him to 126 yards passing last week, while intercepting him three times. The Falcons are in desperate need of a win and the Bucs are "just what the doctor ordered." Ryan started well for Atlanta in 2009 (9 TDs / 4 INTs in the team's 4-1 start) but then had just five TDs and eight INTs as the team lost three of four. Ryan rallied the Falcons from a 14-point deficit in the fourth quarter of last week's game throwing two TDs in the final 6:01, including an 11-yard pass to Tony Gonzalez with 28 seconds left that sent the game into overtime. However, the Falcons lost the coin toss and the Giants converted a 36-yard FG for the victory. The loss (4th in five games) hurt but Atlanta has to be happy with Ryan's improved play (268 yards with two TDs and zero INTs). RB Turner is expected to miss this game but Jason Snelling has been impressive plus Jerious Norwood is expected back. The Falcons own two strong technical trends in this game, entering this game the Falcons now 8-1 ATS their last nine games after a SU loss plus they are 11-1 SU and 9-3 or 75% ATS at home since Smith and Ryan came to town at the beginning of the 2008 season, including 4-0 SU and ATS at home in 2009. NFL Team Mismatch on the Atl Falcons (9*).
Larry Ness
REASON FOR PICK: went against Cutler and the Bears last Sunday night and eked out a win, as both Cutler and the team continued their recent slide. The team's 3-1 start (Cutler had seven TDs and just one INT in the three wins) si now only a distant memory. The Bears agreed to a contract extension with QB Jay Cutler through the 2013 season just a few days after the team had lost 21-14 at Atlanta in Week 6. That loss has sent the Bears on a 1-5 SU and ATS slide. Cutler set a career high with five interceptions, the last coming in the end zone on the game's final play in Chicago's Week 10 Thursday night 10-6 loss at San Francisco. Cutler is the first Bear to have at least four INTs in a game twice in the same season since Billy Wade in 1962. It was Cutler's fourth game with three or more interceptions over the last two seasons, tied with Jake Delhomme for the most in the NFL. As I mentioned last week, I don't want to give Cutler a 'pass' on Chicago's offensive woes this year but the Bears do rank 28th in the NFL with just 89.3 YPG on the ground. Matt Forte rushed for 1,238 yards as a rookie in 2008 but won't come close to that in 2009, as he has been held to 516 yards this season through 10 games. Last week Cutler had to face the blitzing Eagles who love to pressure the QB and force turnovers (Philly's 23 takeaways ranks 2nd to the Saints in the NFC) and this week he must face the Minnesota defense which leads the NFL in sacks (36). The Bears are 1-4 SU and ATS on the road this year, averaging just 14 PPG. Cutler's thrown just seven TDs as oppopsed to 15 INTs in those five away games, posting an awful QB rating of 62.8. Should we expect him to out-duel Brett Favre in this one? Favre's already wrapped up comeback-player-of-the-year and he's now working on a fourth MVP award. Why not? The 40-year-old has single-handedly rejuvenated "the men in purple." He leads the NFL with a QB rating of 112.1 by completing 69.7 percent of his passes with 21 TDs and just three INTs. He's making Sidney Rice (17.5 YPC) look like Jerry Rice and rookie Percy Harvin has given the Vikings an all-purpose talent. The Vikes also feature a pretty fair RB in Adrian Peterson. You may have heard of him. The Bears are a total mess, Cutler has seemingly lost all confidence while one hardly gets the feeling his teammates think much of him either. The Vikes are 5-0 at home averaging 30.4 PPG and should jump out early on the Bears and then turn loose their pass rush on Cutler to complete the rout. Weekend Wipeout Winner on the Min Vikings (7.5*).
Larry Ness
REASON FOR PICK: The last time Matt Leinart and Vince Young met on a football field was in their epic showdown in the 2006 Rose Bowl (BCS title game), when Young rushed for 200 yards and three scores as Texas won 41-38 over Leinart and USC. The Titans would prefer to see Leinart start on Sunday but they are not likely to be that lucky. Kurt Warner is expected to make his 42nd consecutive start. He's dealt with concussion-like symptoms this week after getting his head slammed into the turf on a hit from Rams safety OJ Atogwe in the second quarter of last weekend's game at St Louis. Warner stayed in the game to finish a TD drive but left before the half with the Cards up 21-3. The final was 21-13, as Leinart not only failed to produce any points against the Rams, he couldn't even manage a quality drive. The Cards have surprised everyone this year with their 5-0 road mark but they sure better hope Warner is able to play the entire game. Warner is once again overcoming a putrid rushing attack (Cards averaged 73.6 YPG last year and this year are not much better, averaging 94.1). Leinart does not have the same skills as warner and one wonders, the right attitude. Young had a troubled season LY, while Kerry Collins led the Titans to a 13-3 mark, the best mark in the entire NFL. Collins was back as the starter this year but while Tennessee's 0-6 start was hardly all his fault, during the Titan's Week 7 bye, Fisher was instructed by ownership to give the job back to Young. Young's been very solid, completing 64.4 percent with three TDs and just one INT. He's averaging a modest 155.8 YPG through the air but also has the ability to run (146 yards and one TD in his four starts). If he continues to keep his mistakes to a minimum, Tennessee will be thrilled. Thrilling is one way to describe RB Chris Johnson. He leads the NFL in rushing and during the team's four-game wining streak, has averaged 161.5 YPG (6.2 YPC / 6 TDs). Johnson is the main reason the Titans have averaged 31.3 PPG during their winning streak plus a vastly improved and much healthier defense has also been a key. Tennessee's D was among the best in the NFL last year, allowing the 2nd-fewest points (14.6 PPG) and 293.6 YPG (7th-best). However, with injuries to its 2ndary, Tennessee allowed a ridiculous 304.7 YPG through six games, giving up 19 TD passes with just four INTs. However, with the return to health of a number of key players, Tennessee's allowed just a little over 200 YPG through the air the last four games with six TD passes allowed and seven INTs. After allowing 33.0 PPG through six games, the Titans have allowed just 18.5 PPG in their winning streak. I mentioned earlier that the Cards have surprised almost everyone with their road play. No kidding. Consider this. The Cardinals are 5-0 on the road for the first time since winning all seven of their away games back in 1948 while still based in Chicago. The Titans are off a MNF game in Houston and must travel to Indy next week but after the team's 0-6 start, the Titans are under no pressure at all and 'sandwich' games or "look-ahead" situations are really not applicable. Meanwhile, the Cards are back out on the road for the second straight Sunday (were in st Louis last week), have to be a little concerned about Warner's head plus have a legitimate "look-ahead" situation with Favre and the Vikings coming to Phoenix next week (Vikes won 35-14 at Arizona last year, without Favre). Situational Mismatch on the Ten Titans (8*).
Larry Ness
REASON FOR PICK: Buzz Williams took over for Tom Crean at Marquette after he left for Indiana and won 25 games last year, However, Crean had left behind a terrific trio of perimeter player in McNeal (19.8-4.5-3.9), Matthews (18.3-5.7) and James (1.0-3.4-5.0). Those players have departed and Williams' challenge this year will be much tougher. However, so far so good! FSU had been left out of the NCAA tourney three years in a row heading into last season but the Seminoles finally got an invite LY, as Toney Douglas (21.5) led the team to 25 wins but FSU lost its first round game. Douglas was the lone player to average better than double digits last year and with him gone, getting another 20-win season in 2009-10 is surely no guarantee, especially playing in the ACC. Like Marquette, FSU is off to a good start. Marquette is 6-0 and off to its best start since the 2006-07 squad won its first eight games. FSU is 5-1, losing only to Florida and after what the Gators did this weekend to No. 2 Michigan St, no one is holding the Seminoles' loss at Gainesville against them. FSU is winning with defense, limiting opponents to 52.8 PPG on 32.2 percent overall shooting while outrebounding foes by 9.3 per game. The 7-1 Alabi (10.2-6.0) starts at center with the 6-9 Singleton (11.3-7.8) and the 6-8 Reid (7.7-6.0) joining him in the frontcourt. JUCO transfer Kitchens (10.3-4.2-3.3) is joined in the backcourt by sophomore Dulkys (9.2) with 6-11 swingman (you read that right) Gibson (8.0-3.5) and freshman guard Snaer (6.2) being the best of the reserves so far. While FSU's start has been solid, I'm really impressed with the Golden Eagles. We knew the 6-6 Hayward (19.7-6.3) was poised for a big season and he's delivered so far but the improved play of 6-6 junior Butler (16.7-7.0) has been a real surprise. Two JUCO All-American guards have eased the loss of LY's great trio, as Johnson-Odom (11.0) and Buycks (8.2-5.5-4.0) have been very good. Two seniors, PG Acker (9.7-3.8 APG) and Cuibillan (7.2-3.7 APG) are both getting more "PT" now that McNeal, Matthews and James "have left the building." The Golden Eagles are averaging 83.5 PPG on 50.3 percent shooting from the floor, including 42.3 percent from three-point range. Defensively, they are limiting foes to 59.5 PPG on 38.9 percent overall shooting, as all six wins have come by double figures. Make that all seven! Tourney Championship Game Showdown on Marquette (8*).
