Nflchoice nfl picks 11/29
HOUSTON TEXANS +3.5 (RISK 10%)
This play was originally posted @ 10:30 AM ET on SUNDAY, 11/29.
Line Note: If your book shows +3, then buy the 1/2 point. If your book shows 3.5, then buy the 1/2 point. Bottom line, don't get beat buy the hook.
NO DWIGHT FREENEY = A LOT OF MATT SCHAUB, ANDRE JOHNSON, AND STEVE SLATON.
We will hint on this injury and how it will effect the Colts for a moment. Without Dwight Freeney, the Colts all time leading sack master, this will take away all that pressure the Colts have been throwing at QB's. Veteran QB Matt Schaub will without a doubt take advantage of the situation, especially with explosive recievers Andre Johnson and RB Steve Slaton. As the game wears on, the Texans will continuously work on this inexperienced Colts defensive secondary as Matt Schaub gets more time to make big plays down-field.
So here we go again, another week the Colts are the betting public favorite laying more points on the road in a divisional rivalry game. We indicated last week the Colts time would be up, and and Flacco not thrown a stupid interception with 2 1/2 minutes left, the Colts would have one loss under their belt right now. That being said, were getting solid line value with the Texans at more than a field goal. Why?
The Colts run is reaching some historic levels at the current 19-0. But there is a different kind of history that they just made that tells us much more about where they really are – they just became the first team in NFL history to win four consecutive games by a combined total of 10 points. Six of their 10 wins have come by four points or less, and if the season ended today only two of those 10 opponents would be in the playoffs. The Colts are getting miracle after miracle, week after week, and it just can't keep going.
Houston had this team on the ropes just a few weeks back at Indy where kicker Chris Brown missed a 32 yard field goal to send to overtime. We were on the Texans side in that game getting nearly 10 points and we will gladly side with them here today. We strongly believe the Texans should have won that game and they will atone for it this week.
Now, working with revenge, and coming off a home loss last week to divisional rival Tennessee, the Texans are playing in their version of the Super Bowl. If Houston falls to 5-6, their playoff chances will take a HUGE hit. With both Jacksonville and Tennessee starting to surge in this division, it's a no brainer this is the biggest game of the year for the Texans today at home.
Take the points and buy the hook for insurance.
TENNESSEE TITANS (RISK 5%)
This play was originally posted @ 10:30 AM ET on SUNDAY, 11/29.
NOTE: This line is everywhere from -1 to -3, so please shop around and find best value.
This will be the 4th trip for Arizona traveling cross country and so far they are a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS in those games. That would make any person weary about betting against the Cardinals today. However, only one team on the field today will want this game more, and that is Tennessee.
The Cardinals have a comfortable three-game lead in the division and they have games left against Detroit and St. Louis. They also have a huge NFC game on deck next week against the Vikings making this AFC opponent in Tennessee a less critical opponent. You should also know Warner has been limited all week in practice coming off a tough concussion against St. Louis. Have you ever heard the crowd noise at LP Stadium?
As we explained in our *12* release on Monday night, the Titans are now in must win mode for the remainder of the season. And yes, they can still make the playoffs. This team is pumping on all cylinders and will find a way to beat the Cardinals today at home. Chris Johnson and Vince Young are taking this running game to a whole other level and this ripples throughout the whole team including the defense. With Kurt Warner not at 100%, this could be a very long today for the Cardinals.
ATLANTA FALCONS 1ST HALF -7 (RISK 5%)
This play was originally posted @ 10:30 AM ET on SUNDAY, 11/29.
NOTE: This is a first half play only.
We have been in the zone spotting teams due for an emotional output in the first half the past 4 weeks and we look to continue that run today with the Falcons.
The Bucs showed their true colors last week and any shot at the playoffs is out the window. On the flip side, the Falcons are in the biggest must win situation of their entire season and they need some momentum to build on fast. Losers of 2 in a row, and at 5-5 on the season, this is no time to be playing around, even with weak competition like the Bucs. This is why we expect for the Falcons to come out full throttle in this game and build a stable lead by half-time.
In the NFL it's always about getting out to a strong start for teams that are reeling, in this case it's the Atlanta Falcons who can't come out flat in this game. Lay the first half points.
SAN FRANCISCO -2.5 (RISK 5%)
This play was originally posted @ 10:30 AM ET on SUNDAY, 11/29.
Line Note: Buy the hook here in case SF wins by a field goal.
Were just not buying into the Jags here with their recent 3 game streak over some of the weakest teams in the NFL. Rashean Mathis is out for this game and their pass defense has given up dividens in road games this season. Jax was lucky last week to get by the Bills at home when Terrell Owens simply went off. This run defense is also giving up 131 yards on the ground which spells major trouble with Frank Gore carrying the load for the Niners.
The 49'ers have played possibly the toughest schedule in the NFL and have fought hard in recent weeks under the arm of Alex Smith. Not many folks are giving this guy a chance, but he has dramatically increased WR production since he took over the helm. If you have him on your Fantasy team you should start him as the Jags are allowing the 25th most pass yards in the NFL, and that number is mostly inflated with road performances. That being said, this is another trip out west for the Jags and we expect for the Niners to light up their secondary this afternoon.
Tha Jags may have won 3 in a row over weaker opponents, however they are just 1-5 ATS their last 6 games overall. The Niners did cover the last time they were favored in a 10-6 home win over Chicago, and they have covered 3 of 5 this season when favored, pushing their mark to 5-3-1 against the spread their last 9 as the home favorite.
Take the 49'ers and buy the 1/2 as insurance in case of a close one.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS +9 (RISK 5%)
This play was originally posted @ 10:30 AM ET on SUNDAY, 11/29.
NOTE: Like several other lines this week, this is one that is anywhere from +7.5-+9 points. The key is getting off that hook, so if your book shows 7.5, then buy the hook to +8. We can't see the line dropping any lower than 7.5, so it will be in your best interest to wait up until game-time to secure best value. We expect a lot of public money on the Ravens here so obviously the line should rise by game-time. If you get +9 at your book now, then go ahead and secure value.
So Big Ben is out in this game. Big deal. Yes, it means the Steelers will have to come up with more creative ways to win, however this is a team that can always get by on it's defense and running game.
That being said, we expect for Tomlin to limit young QB Dixon to short throwing situations to the out backs and slants across the middle. You have to remember, this is a Baltimore team that Tomlin prepares for twice a year, this time he will be without his starting QB, however the adjustments can and will be made.
And it's not like Dennis Dixon is completely inept. At sixth on school's all-time list for total offense with 6,337 career yards, the young man from Oregon has played in some pretty big games. Now, the learning curve for the NFL is much much more intense, however do you think one minute Mike Tomlin won't have his team prepared?
Bottom line, this is still a HUGE divisional rivalry with playoff implications. The Steelers have now lost 2 in a row and are in a must win situation, And that means bringing everything they have to win this game tonight. You will have to look a long while back to find when the Steelers lost by more than a TD in any game. This is a tough defensive team that can run the football, chew up clock, and control the time of possession.
This line is INFLATED and the betting public will fall right into the trap of putting too much emphasis on the QB position. Especially, in he toughest, smash-mouth division in the NFL.
Ravens by 4.
