Service Plays Sunday 11/29/09

[Stu Padasso]

Malinsky NCAAB

4* #725 PRINCETON over CALIFORNIA

One of the biggest keys to beating the early-season College Hoops is
to understand what the schedule means to the teams involved in the
many non-conference affairs. We have a classic example here. For
favored Cal this is little more than an afternoon scrimmage, played
in front of what will be the sparsest home crowd of the season, with
a much bigger target ahead when they go to New Mexico. But for
Princeton this one brings much more.

Why would an Ivy League team travel this far for a single game? There
is a real sense of purpose. This trip was set as a reward for two
Tiger mainstays, starting SR Marcus Schroeder, from nearby Concord,
and JR Dan Mavraides, from San Mateo. This will be the 64th career
start for Schroeder, who is averaging 35.2 minutes per game this
season, and Mavraides is leading the team in scoring. That makes this
not only a special afternoon for them, but for the entire team, since
they all pick their game up a bit to play well for their floor
leaders in a ?homecoming? setting. And that matters because the Tiger
style is ideal when taking this big of a spread. They are going to
set an excruciatingly slow tempo on both ends of the court, patiently
going deep into the shot clocker before firing (with Schroeder,
Mavraides and Douglas Davis having meshed so well in the back-court
they bring a lot of savvy in this playbook), and by utilizing a lot
of different looks on defense they also force the opposition to play
more deliberately.

Cal brings no sense of urgency, and will again be without Theo
Robertson. The Bears have the talent advantages to get the ?W? easily
here, but not the intensity to cover this mountain of a spread vs. a
pesky opponent that is going to bring their ?A? game.

 

[LLXC13]

Dwayne Bryant

Sunday 11.29.09


NFL - #205 Indianapolis Colts at #206 Houston Texans - 1:00 p.m. ET


NFL Game of the Week: OVER 47


I'm not much of a totals player, but every now and then an opportunity presents itself that I just can't pass up. This line opened at 49 and is now down to 47.5 and 47 depending where you look. Much of this has to do with the Colts not putting up a ton of points lately. Indy has scored 20 points or less in three of their last four games. Houston is coming off back-to-back 17-point offensive performances. Sprinkle in the fact that these two teams met just a few weeks ago with a final score of 20-17, and it's no wonder people are betting the under. I think that's a huge mistake.
These are two of the best passing teams in the league. The Colts are the #1-ranked passing offense, while Houston comes in at #3. They say that points come out of the passing game, and that will be very clear in this one. Peyton Manning will carve up the Houston defense and you know he'll be focused on scoring a ton considering Indy's lack of big points lately. The last time Indy faced another top passing offense was two weeks ago when they beat the Patriots, 35-34.
Matt Schaub should have success as well, as the Colts' secondary is missing Bob Sanders, Marlin Jackson, and Kelvin Hayden. But the biggest loss of all is DE Dwight Freeney, who didn't make the trip. That is a HUGE loss to the Colts' pass rush and that will leave those young, inexperienced cornerbacks on an island trying to cover Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter, and company. Let's not forget RB Steve Slaton, who is a great receiver with top speed. Houston will try to get him in space, as he is a TD waiting to happen.
There were quite a few points left off the scoreboard in that 20-17 meeting a few weeks ago, so don't let that low total fool you. Up until that game, these two teams had gone OVER the total in EIGHT straight meetings. They have gone OVER the total in their last four meetings in Houston, and check out these final score totals: 58, 51, 54, and 58. I see this game also falling into that 51-58 area. Take the OVER as my NFL Game of the Week play.

 

[eyedoc]

SORRY..RAS did have Troy-6 but I was posting from e-mail which didnt show up but when I logged in I found it.

 

[mp5070]

Diceituponline - Stansfield 11/29

3 plays in NFL today

20 dimes SD Chargers -13
10 dimes Indy/Houston under 48
5 dimes Tampa Bay +12

 

[troytrojan26]

Steve Merril:

Houston +3.5
Atlanta -11.5
Chicago +11

 

[Henryjames]

igz1 sports

NBA
4* Boston -3.5 (-110)
4* OKC -2.5 (-110)

CBB
3* Indiana st -2.5 (-110)
3* Marquette PK (-110)
3* Texas -18 (-110)

NFL
3* Seattle -4 (-110)
3* Carolina +3.5 (-110)
3* Colts -3 (-110)
3* Jacksonville +3.5 (-120)
3* Under 39.5 (-110) Cleveland vs Cincinnati
3* Over 46 (-110) Tampa Bay vs Atlanta

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

from a friend.



A.REDD


10-Dime Dolphins



10-Dime Seahawks



10-Dime Jaguars

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wayne Root:

10* Rams (+4)
7* Texans (+3½)
6* 49ers (-3)
4* (GOM) Bills (+3)

clubs/ratings:
3* Vegas Legend
4* Millionaire
5* Moneymaker
6* Billionaire
7* No Limit
8* Inside Circle
9* (No Club Play)
10* Perfect Play

 

[rsharp]

anyone fargos 10* get rid of the rest, go with the best

 

[jrydizzle]

anyone have northcoast line or matt fargo?

 

[Stu Padasso]

* #709 BOSTON over MIAMI

Malinsky 11-24 -62.5 units in NBA

We get the benefit of a short price here from both directions, and that means a prime opportunity to step in to a setting in which the Celtics bring significant matchup advantages.The oddsmakers are forced to sell Boston short because of a current 2-9 ATS run, but note that it does not really tell us much about the state of affairs with Doc Rivers and his team – they were favored by at least -6 in every one of those games, and seven of them were in double figures. ATS failures in high-line games may be an issue for them all season, because the focus is merely on winning and moving forward, saving as much energy as possible for games that they hope to be playing in June. Now they are playing for only the third time in seven days, which means plenty of physical energy, and with Ray Allen re-joining them yesterday they will treat this one seriously – this is the lowest spread they have been involved in since opening night, and the challenge they perceive gets their focus at a higher level. They still rate #2 on our best defensive set of ratings, and #6 on offense, and that is despite coasting often with leads as big favorites.Meanwhile Miami is priced as though the 9-6 record is legitimate, but the Heat are a troubled item right now. A current 3-5 SU run has to be studied more deeply, with all three of the wins coming by a single point, including escapes vs. the Nets (ouch) and Hornets, and three of the losses coming in double figures. The problem is an offense that is consistently breaking down because they lack a creator at PG, and Dwayne Wade is finding double-teams to be a matter of course. In five of the last six games he has been held to 42 percent shooting or lower, and his frustrations are starting to show - <i>``At the end of the day, you take what the defense gives you. You only could force so much.”</i> Now they face the most fundamentally-sound defense in the league, which exacerbates all of those issue, and on one of the first nights this season in which we expect to see the Celtics bring their “A” game they are capable of choking the Miami offense, and getting a win by far more than this short pointspread is calling for.

 

[LLXC13]

Vegas Sports Informer GOY

8 Unit Play. #228 Take Baltimore (between -1 thru -7 ½ ) over Pittsburgh (8:20 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 29)
***Sunday morning all books posted Baltimore -7 ½ and we still feel that this game has great value as I thought this number would be between 8-10 point favorite. Will grade this 8-Unit play as long as the game doesn’t go over 7 ½. ***(NFL Game of the Year) Will play this game as long as Baltimore is no more then a 7 ½ -point favorite! On Saturday morning sources have said that Pittsburgh Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger will not play this game Sunday night. Only one Las Vegas sports book has this game posted and they have the Ravens -7. With no Big Ben we really like this play as the Steelers offense will be lost. If this game climbs to more than 7-points I would stay off this play. We had this game circled after the Bengals beat the Steelers in Week #3 and this season Pittsburgh hasn’t been a good road team. Pittsburgh is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games this year. Pittsburgh defense has been questionable and with Troy Polamalu out we should see the offense of Baltimore move the ball at home. Baltimore will win this game on defense and we could see Big Ben not lasting this game because the Ravens “D” will want to get the bad loss from the Colts out of their mouths from last week. Baltimore wins this game by a touchdown and Pittsburgh might be looking at next year because the playoffs are slipping away from the Steel Curtain. Baltimore is 6-1 ATS following a SU loss. Pittsburgh is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in Baltimore.
***Sorry for any problems we might have caused but we thought Big Ben was going to play this game all week long until Saturday we Pittsburgh announced he wasn’t playing***

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dennis Macklin 11/29 NFL

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Dennis Macklin
In an industry that offers no guarantees, of one thing you can be certain. Nobody works harder or is better prepared to get YOU the money. The Mack Attack has your back and the best is yet to come. Sport Date Matchup Book Starts NFL Nov 29 '09
4:15p Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings
Take: Minnesota Vikings -10½-103 in 15h The Bears are in complete freefall going 1-5 after bye with the only win a life-and-death home win over the Browns on the 10th anniversary of the death of Walter Peyton. Cutler just one pick last week but today faces Viking defense with 36 sacks and bringing heat every play. Matt Forte has been in witness protection program leaving Chitown with little offensive options. Shutdown corner Antione Winfield also returns to the Vikes. Say what you will about Brett Favre, he's having a MVP type of year with 21 TDs and just 3 picks. Purple Jesus, Adrian Peterson is slightly dinged but has 999 yards and has had best games against the Bears in the past. Minnesota has six wins of 12+ and the only wat that Vikes don't drop 40+ on the Monsters of the Midway here would be for Childress to call off the dogs early. Division/Conference game and #1 seed in NFC up for grabs, why would he ??? Minnesota 45-13.

Sport Date Matchup Book Starts NFL Nov 29 '09
1:00p Carolina Panthers vs New York Jets
Take: Carolina Panthers +3+105 in 12h The Jets have lost six of seven as Mark Sanchez goes through his learning curve. Sanchez with eight giveaways in last two games but more importantly, the NYJ defense is allowing 28 ppg and 120+ rypg against Panther attack avgg 205 ypg overland in last four. Fox not taking any chance with Delhomme who has thrown just one pick L4 after 13 in first four. Expecting two-headed dragon of Williams and Stewart to got off to the races. Panthers straight up, call it 24-20.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sports Insights Marketwatch
Tennessee -3+05

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Kelso


100 unit San Diego -13.5

20 Units Texans (+3)
20 Units Vikings
15 units Rams +4

10 Units 2-Team NFL Parlay
Texans (+3) over Colts
Vikings (-10½) over Bears


5 units Tennessee -2
4 units Dolphins -3.5
3 units Jax/49ers UNDER 41.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

aussieguysportspicks NFL Pick 3

MIAMI at BUFFALO
UNDER 39


I'm playing the UNDER in Buffalo because of the line movement that isn't budging at all. The books opened the Fins -3 for -115 and they're now at the same number for -125 or even -130. The Lines Makers and the betting agencies aren't giving an inch there. Normally with that sort of money coming in, we would have seen Miami drifted down to -4 by now! (at least -3.5) But the betting shops are keeping the same line, asking the bettors to lay more, in order to counteract the juice, for the same number, -3. Obviously such a movement by the books, indicates a close fought contest.
I don't think this will be as easy as it might appear at first glance. Most people and sports experts reckon Miami should cruise to victory here. I just don't think it will be as easy as that. Ricky Williams was amazing against the Panthers last week, but I just don't think neither him nor the Dolphins will be able to replicate last week's flawless performance in a rugged Buffalo terrain. We should see plenty of punting and defensive play and points coming at a premium

Miami is still in the race and they can grab a wild card still, so they really want this real bad. Will Buffalo lay down and let the Dolphins have a field day? I don't think so! The numbers certainly indicate that it won't be easy.
Couldn't care less who wins and who covers, but this should stay UNDER

CLEVELAND at CINCINNATI
UNDER 19.5 FIRST HALF

Cleveland are awful, no matter what you make of their "heartbreaking" loss to Detroit last week. The Bengals loss as -9.5 favourites last week, was a huge surprise to to everyone. They will tear the Browns apart this week, but first half Cleveland might make it somewhat respectable... and By respectable I mean 17-0. We don't have to worry about the Browns scoring. My only fear would be if Cincy has a field day and just scores at will here everytime they get possession of the ball. If that hapens, ..well, what can you do! That's the part of the gamble. But I highly doubt that this would go over in the first Half. 19.5 is a low number that doesn't give us much room to breathe, In fact is the lowest on the board today; But it is that low for a very good reason. The Browns find it near impossible to get to that end zone, it shouldn't get easy against a pissed off Bengals team here today.

SEATTLE at ST LOUIS RAMS
OVER 21 FIRST HALF

This is my type of game; The type that no one really cares or gives two hoots about. Two absolutely horrid teams, one worse-r than the other; and where you have a 100% chance at capping it right by simply flipping a coin! Gun to my head I'd take the Rams to win SU, but I'm not forced to make a bet there.
However, I expect the Rams to get involved in a shoot out. I suspect that will be their strategy at avenging that first week bagel loss to the Hawks. But if the Rams are to keep this anywhere near the point spread they will have to score plenty of points themselves, because their Defense is absolutely no atrocious (ranked 28th overall, and demolished by the Cards last week) The first half total opened slightly too high for two horrible teams, That has made everyone jump on the Under.
I just don't believe that is right. Such number warrants a play on the OVER

VERY IMPORTANT:
ALL BETS ARE THE SAME AMOUNT. PERSONALLY I WILL BET EVERY SINGLE ONE FOR 0.7 UNITS
THEREFORE, WE'RE BETTING ONLY JUST OVER 2 UNITS FOR THE DAY, WHICH OUGHT TO BE THE NORM. WE SHOULDN'T BET MORE THAN 1 OR 2 UNITS DAILY.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mti sports
4* celtics/heat under
from the nc line

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Northcoast line
button#3 kc/sd over
button #9 dolphins

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pure Lock

Carolina +3.5

ICE COLD !!!!!!!! Lost again yesterday w Stanford -10.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sixth Sense

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BEST BETS

YTD 31-30 –6.30%

3% INDIANAPOLIS -3
3% MIAMI –3.5
3% PITTSBURGH +2.5 Only if Roethlisberger plays – line isn’t currently available but wait to make sure he is playing.
3% NEW ORLEANS –1.5