NCAA Sports MarketWatch Week 14 – Games to Watch
Colorado vs Nebraska (11/28 3:30P)
Colorado needs another victory to become bowl eligible as they come into the match up with Nebraska at 5-6 overall. The Buffalos have lacked consistency on offense, and they have changed quarterback choices multiple times. At the moment it seems sophomore Cody Hawkins has reclaimed the job. Colorado also lacks a reliable kicker, which has created more fourth down attempts than normal (16-23 on fourth downs). The Buffalos defense has been solid, but they don't create many turnovers with only 15 on the season.
Nebraska doesn't have much on the line against Colorado other than strengthening bowl positioning. A win will likely place them in the Gator Bowl on January 1st. The Huskers have won four out of their last five following a three-game losing streak that ended in October. Nebraska is ranked 10th nationally in total yards, and they are also in the top-20 in scoring, averaging 35.8 points per game. Nebraska's defensive line has collected nine sacks in his last two games, wins over Kansas and Kansas State. Quarterback Joe Ganz comes into the game ranked 12th nationally with an average of 282.1 passing yards per game.
Nebraska opened as 15-point home favorites at Pinnacle, and the line has steadily moved to Nebraska -18. The Huskers are receiving 61% of spread bets and 77% of parlay bets. We saw a move in the line from Nebraska -17 to -16.5 at WSEX (15-9, +4.6 units), which was the start of a Steam Move for Colorado. We'll follow the positive steam, and take Colorado with the points.
Colorado +18
Nevada vs Louisiana Tech (11/29 2:30P)
Nevada fell just short in a rally against undefeated and BCS-bound Boise State last week, as they lost by a touchdown. The Wolf Pack rank5th nationally in total offense with 522.2 yards per game, and they are the top rushing team in the nation with 308.5 yards per game. Nevada allows 31.5 points per game. The rushing defense is second in the nation, giving up 64.5 yards per game, but the passing defense ranks dead last nationally by allowing 326.8 yards per game. .
Louisiana Tech comes in at 7-4 with a chance to finish second in the WAC and a shot at their first bowl game since 2001. The Bulldogs have won four straight and are looking to remain undefeated at home. Tech's passing offense ranks 112th in the nation, and the strength of their team is the tailback duo of Daniel Porter and Patrick Johnson. Both backs are nursing injuries, but will be ready to play this weekend. The Bulldogs' defense is allowing an average of 100.1 yards per game on the ground.
Nevada opened as 3.5-point favorites at Pinnacle, despite Louisiana Tech have the better overall record. Nevada has faced some tough opponents this season, with games against Texas Tech, Missouri and Boise State. This national exposure is probably a one reason the public is so strongly behind the Wolf Pack; another may be the high-scoring offense. The line has fluctuated between Nevada -3.5 and -5.5 at most books tracked by Sports Insights. The Wolf Pack are receiving a whopping 91% of spread bets and 90% of parlay bets. The line fluctuation and the strong Nevada backing has triggered multiple Smart Money plays on the Bulldogs, including one at BetOnline (28-18, +7.12).
Louisiana Tech +5 (The Pig)
Maryland vs Boston College (11/29 3:30PM)
Maryland is coming off a home loss to Florida State that finished off any chance the Terrapins had at a berth in the ACC Championship Game. Maryland still has a reason to play hard because a win will still mean a tie for the top record in the ACC Atlantic Division (which they would lose in a tiebreaker.) The Terrapins have been a tough team to predict this season, as they have beaten four ranked teams, while losing to four unranked teams. Maryland's ground attack is the strength of its offense, with a pair of strong tailbacks in Da’Rel Scott and Davin Meggett. The Terrapins have had some issues defending mobile quarterbacks this season, and they are allowing 147 rushing yards per game.
Boston College can clinch the ACC Atlantic Division and a berth in the ACC Championship Game with a win this week. The Eagles lost starting quarterback Chris Crane to a broken collarbone last week, but backup Dominique Davis led BC on a 70-yard game-winning drive against Wake Forest last week. The win pushed their winning streak to three games. BC ranks 95th in total offense, but they are 55th in scoring offense. The Eagles ranks fifth in the nation in total defense, and they lead the nation in interceptions.
Boston College opened as 6.5-point favorites at Pinnacle and most books tracked by Sports Insights. The line has moved between BC -6 and -7 throughout the marketplace, and the movement triggered a Steam Move on Maryland at ABC (70-57, +6.5 units). Early in the week, the Eagles were drawing heavy public backing, but late Wednesday that started shifting. Maryland is now drawing 54% of the public's spread bets, but the Eagles are receiving 72% of parlay bets. The numbers earlier in the week triggered a Smart Money play on the Terrapins at The Pig (113-99, +.2.7 units).
Maryland +7 (Bodog)
So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NCAA Football Week 14.
Games to Watch (17-20-2)
Colorado +18
Louisiana Tech +5
Maryland +7
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