vegas-runner | CFB Side Double-Dime Bet
<DT>343 Virginia 8.0 (-110) Bodog vs 344 Virginia Tech <DD>Analysis: ** NCAAFB 2* WAGER **</DD><DL><DT class=dtPgTop>Sat, 11/29/08 - 12:00 PMvegas-runner | CFB MoneyLine Single-Dime Bet <DT>366 Georgia (-130) Bodog vs 365 Georgia Tech <DD>Analysis: * NCAAFB 1* TEASER BET * (Possible 2* UPGRADE)
GEORGIA -1/2 & VIRGINIA +15 (1*)...Teaser
</DD></DL>
<DL><DT class=dtPgTop>Sat, 11/29/08 - 12:00 PMvegas-runner | CFB Side Single-Dime Bet <DT>366 Georgia -7.0 (-120) Sportsbetting.com vs 365 Georgia Tech <DD>Analysis: * NCAAFB 1* WAGER * (Buy to -7)</DD></DL>
<DT>343 Virginia 8.0 (-110) Bodog vs 344 Virginia Tech <DD>Analysis: ** NCAAFB 2* WAGER **</DD><DL><DT class=dtPgTop>Sat, 11/29/08 - 12:00 PMvegas-runner | CFB MoneyLine Single-Dime Bet <DT>366 Georgia (-130) Bodog vs 365 Georgia Tech <DD>Analysis: * NCAAFB 1* TEASER BET * (Possible 2* UPGRADE)
GEORGIA -1/2 & VIRGINIA +15 (1*)...Teaser
</DD></DL>
<DL><DT class=dtPgTop>Sat, 11/29/08 - 12:00 PMvegas-runner | CFB Side Single-Dime Bet <DT>366 Georgia -7.0 (-120) Sportsbetting.com vs 365 Georgia Tech <DD>Analysis: * NCAAFB 1* WAGER * (Buy to -7)</DD></DL>
Cajun-Sports CFB Executive- Saturday
12:00 PM EST
4 STAR SELECTION
NORTH CAROLINA STATE +2 over Miami, FL
The Wolfpack will try to avoid a repeat of last year's season finale when they host the Hurricanes on Saturday. The scenario for North Carolina State is simple: win, and they'll become bowl eligible. Lose, and go home - again. Last season, with a bowl berth on the line in their final game against Maryland, the Wolfpack were blanked at home, 37-0. This time, however, they've got momentum on their side, having won three straight.
Miami, Florida enters this game off last Thursday's 41-23 loss at Georgia Tech. The setback snapped the Hurricanes' five-game win streak, which was the team's longest win streak since an eight-game tear in 2005.
The Hurricanes have made their share of mistakes with their 2 freshman quarterbacks Robert Marve and Jacory Harris. They had trouble moving the chains against the Yellow Jackets in their last outing, as they converted just 3-of-13 third downs. The Hurricanes have managed to average 28 points, although their defense and special teams have had a part in that.
The Miami defense was completely overmatched by Georgia Tech's option game last Thursday. By the time the final whistle blew, the Yellow Jackets had rolled up 472 yards on the ground, marking the second-most the Hurricanes have ever allowed in their storied history. It was a rude awakening for a Miami team that entered the game ranked for the first time in two years. Miami also enters this game with only three interceptions on the season, so this unit does not make a lot of big plays.
Last weekend against #25 North Carolina, the Wolfpack looked as sharp as they have all season en route to a 41-10 victory. QB Russell Wilson completed 17-of-29 passes for 279 yards and two TDs. He has now thrown over 200 consecutive passes without an interception, the longest active streak in the nation. He has also thrown multiple touchdowns in five straight games, as offense has been finding its groove.
The Wolfpack defense forced North Carolina into a season-high six turnovers last week, which was obviously a big factor in the win. They were able to stuff the Tarheels at every turn, holding the North Carolina to just over 200 yards of total offense.
NC State is playing very well at this point in the season and will simply want this game more than the Hurricanes. Miami was in charge of their fate in the ACC Coastal Division race. Had they won their last two conference games, they would have been in the league championship game in Tampa on December 6th; however, those hopes are now gone. The Hurricanes needed Virginia to win to create the possibility of a three-way tie involving the Hurricanes, Yellow Jackets and Cavaliers, but the Cavs lost to Clemson. Both Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech, who, like Miami, have three conference losses each, hold the tie-breaker advantage over the Hurricanes to determine the division's berth in the championship game.
While Miami has a winning record on the season, they have a losing spread mark, and we look to play AGAINST a team with a good SU record but a bad ATS record. Such teams are the most overvalued on the board. Due to their good SU mark, they will continue to get a lot of attention, and thus money, from the public, preserving the line value in playing against them.
The numbers, however, tell us to steer clear of the Hurricanes here, as they are an awful 0-16 ATS (-16.6 ppg) as a favorite of less than 33 points with less than 13 days rest off a SU loss and 0-9 ATS (-11.1 ppg) as a favorite seeking revenge since 2003.
Miami also is active for an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM revealing that after a road underdog loss stopped a winning streak, teams in the role of road favorite have continued their struggles away from home. This system states:
In its Final Game, play AGAINST a road favorite of more than 1 point with less than 13 days rest off a road underdog SU loss in its last game and 2 SU wins before that vs. an opponent not off a non-lined SU loss.
Teams in this spot are 0-12 ATS since at least 1980, and possibly even worse than that, as that is as far back as the SportsDataBase goes.
Meanwhile, with North Carolina State we can play ON a team with a poor SU record but a great ATS record. Such teams are the most undervalued on the board. Due to their bad SU mark, they won't get a lot of attention from the public, preserving their line value. The overlooked WolfPack are now 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games, 7-0 ATS vs. ACC teams this season, and 6-0 SU (+10.2 ppg) & 6-0 SU (+12.7 ppg) as an underdog of less than 5 points vs. opponents off a SU loss since 1999.
Finally, our database research shows that small home underdogs in their final game of the season have been very strong coming off a win in which they weren’t a clear favorite. This is documented by another POWER SYSTEM which reads:
In its Final Game, play ON a conference home underdog of 3 points or less off a SU win (not a favorite of 3+ points) vs. an opponent not off a conference SU loss of less than 4 points.
Going back to 1989, these teams are 13-0 ATS, blasting the spread by nearly 17 ppg on average! Last week, it was Northwestern as a small home dog against Illinois. The Wildcats won easily, 27-10, and beat the spread by 19½ points. Now, NC State qualifies as the PLAY ON team.
The WolfPack will be very hungry and motivated here, while the ‘Canes have little to play for, so we look for the hosts to come away with the SU & ATS victory.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: NORTH CAROLINA STATE 31 MIAMI, FL 24
8:00 PM EST – ABC
4 STAR SELECTION
USC -31½ over Notre Dame
The 5th-ranked Trojans and Fighting Irish hook up for the 80th time on the gridiron Saturday night, as they clash at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.
With a 9-1 overall mark and a lofting ranking, the Trojans are very much alive for the national title race, although they are going to need some help down the stretch. Since losing its only game to Oregon State in late September, the Trojans have ripped off seven straight victories, including three shutouts during that stretch. The team was last in play 2 weeks ago, when it defeated Stanford 45-23 on the road.
Notre Dame has fallen apart down the stretch and hit a very sour note last week with a shocking 24-23 setback at home to lowly Syracuse. It was the third loss in the past four outings by the Irish, which dipped to 6-5 overall.
Notre Dame has been up and down on offense all season long and enter the weekend averaging less than 25 ppg and 370 total ypg. The unit has had more success through the air than on the ground, due to a very bad rushing attack. It has also has had some issues hanging onto the ball, committing 25 turnovers.
Despite avoiding any turnovers last weekend, ND wasn't able to defeat Syracuse behind its 332 yards of total offense. Jimmy Clausen guided the team in the loss by throwing for 291 yards and two touchdowns on 22-of-39 tosses. Like the rest of the offense, though, Clausen has struggled with consistency this season and has thrown for 2,730 yards and 20 scores, but with 15 interceptions as well.
The Irish have been fairly solid on defense this season and is holding its opponents to 21 ppg and 317 total ypg. Last weekend, they suffered another fourth quarter meltdown when it allowed Syracuse to score a pair of touchdowns, including the game-winner with 42 seconds left. Both scores came on drives of 68 yards, as Syracuse posted a majority of its 317 total yards in the final period. If they thought they were having trouble containing the Orange offense, they are going to be in for a very long day against USC.
The Trojans have excelled on both sides of the ball this season and on offense they are scoring 38 ppg and gaining 450+ total ypg. The offense has displayed good balance between the run and pass and is converting 45% of the time on third down.
In its last game, USC racked up 418 total yards, including 282 on the ground, in a victory over Stanford. Stafon Johnson led the charge with 115 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 14 carries, while C.J. Gable went for 85 yards and a score on the same amount of attempts. The duo have been a nice complement to one another and have combined for 1,143 yards and 14 touchdowns on the ground. Quarterback Mark Sanchez also got involved in the win over Stanford, throwing for 136 yards and two touchdowns on 11-of-17 tosses. It was a modest performance by Sanchez, who has flourished this season, converting 65% of his pass attempts for over 2,200 yards, with 26 TDs against just seven INTs.
While USC's offense has certainly been prolific, it actually takes a back seat to the defense, which leads the nation in scoring and ranks second in total yards. The Trojans lead the nation in pass defense, allowing just 132.3 ypg, and they have been every bit as good against the run, yielding a mere 90.2 ypg. It all adds up to big trouble for the error-prone, inconsistent Notre Dame offense.
The Irish are 0-4 ATS as an underdog at USC since 1998, 0-2 SU (-34.5 ppg) & 0-2 ATS (-13.5 ppg) as an underdog of 14+ points vs. USC, and 0-4 SU & ATS as an underdog of 4+ points vs. rested opponents.
After blowing a game as a sizeable favorite at home, teams finishing the season as a big underdog on the road have simply not bothered to show up. This is confirmed by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM that Notre Dame qualifies for. This system reads:
In its Final Game, play AGAINST a road underdog of more than 11 points with less than 13 days rest off a home SU loss as a favorite of more than 6 points.
These teams are 0-9 ATS since 1980, and could be worse than that, as 1980 is as far back as the college football SportsDataBase goes. While that’s a small sample, it’s worth noting that the 9 qualifying teams have failed to cover the spread by more than 17 points per game on average.
USC certainly won’t be short here on motivation for a big win. First, the Trojans simply enjoy pounding the Irish in this yearly non-conference rivalry.
Secondly, we also like to play ON a heavy favorite that needs a blowout win due to poll or player pressure. A college coach that needs a decisive win to keep his team’s standing in the polls or who has talented athletes in backup roles will not hesitate to run up a score given a chance. A big win certainly won’t hurt the poll numbers, and young players will be kept happy if they get an opportunity to perform once they get on the field. The Trojans will want to build on their current ranking to keep their national title hopes alive.
In looking at some technical figures, we have USC at 9-0 ATS (+17.3 ppg) favored by 12-44 points with 12+ days rest since 2004, as well as being 6-0 SU (+26.5 ppg) & 6-0 ATS (+13.2 ppg) in their final home game and playing with revenge.
The Trojans, being rested, also qualify for another NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM of ours which reads:
In its Final Home Game, play ON a team with less than 2 season SU losses and 13-19 days rest vs. an opponent not off 19 SU wins.
Since 1984, these teams have shined, going 15-0 SU (+30.2 ppg) & 15-0 ATS (+14.3 ppg). USC happened to be the last team to qualify. In 2005, the Trojans dismantled UCLA 66-19 to cover the 21-point spread by 26 points!
The Irish have little to play for here, as they are already bowl eligible. The Trojans still have a possible national championship to play for, and will be looking to impress the pollsters with an impressive victory. It all adds up to a dominant SU & ATS for the hosts.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: USC 48 NOTRE DAME 0
12:00 PM EST – ESPN
3 STAR SELECTION
VIRGINIA TECH -7½ over Virginia
The Hokies have their eyes on an ACC title shot, as they host the rival Cavaliers in the regular-season finale for both teams. With a win this weekend, Virginia Tech would clinch the ACC Coastal Division crown and lock up a berth in the ACC Championship game in Tampa, Florida next weekend. The Hokies got here with a 14-3 win over Duke last weekend, shaking off losses in three of its previous four games.
Virginia has fallen back on hard times since a season-long four-game win streak through the month of October. So far in November, the Cavs have lost three straight, including last weekend's 13-3 setback to Clemson.
The Virginia offense has simply been offensive over the last few weeks. Against Clemson, they managed just 190 total yards. Marc Verica had a rough day under center, throwing for 160 yards and three interceptions. He didn't have a whole lot of support from the running game, as tailback Cedric Peerman gained just 45 yards on 19 carries. Virginia just does not possess the type of offense that can overcome lots of turnovers or a stiff defense, which is what they’ll face at Virginia Tech
The Cavaliers defense ranks near the bottom of the ACC in both scoring defense and total defense, so a mediocre Hokies offense should find some success in this game. Freshman tailback Darren Evans has tied a freshman school-record at Virginia Tech with nine rushing touchdowns and is within 74 yards of becoming the first freshman in school history to post a 1,000-yard rushing season. We look for the youngster to hit that mark, as the offense bullies the Cavs defense.
The VaTech defense picked off Duke quarterback Zack Asack four time last week and held the Blue Devils to only six first downs and 136 total yards for the game. In addition, Duke converted just 1-of-12 third downs. Duke is by no means an offensive juggernaut, but those types of statistics are no fluke for a Tech defense that hasn't allowed more than 16 points in a game since October. The Hokies enter this game boasting the nation's eighth-ranked defense in terms of yards allowed, and there are playmakers all up and down this unit.
The Cavaliers will not be bowling with another loss, so they have little to look forward to and little to fight for once they fall behind here. They are 0-11 ATS (-13.9 ppg) in their last 11 SU losses back to 2006, demonstrating that when things aren’t going well, they tend to fall apart.
Virginia’s current losing streak also qualifies them for an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM which states:
In its Final Game, play AGAINST a road team (not an underdog of more than 10 points) with 6 season SU losses off 3 SU losses and not favored in its last 2 games.
Since the mid-1980s, these teams are a horrible 0-18-1 ATS, failing to cover the spread by more than 13 ppg on average.
With Virginia Tech here, we get the opportunity to play ON a power team in a “must-win” situation to qualify for a conference championship or bowl game if the team’s fundamental character has not changed from its better days. Ultimately, the most important factor is whether the team sincerely believes they belong in the postseason.
The Hokies certainly believe they belong, as they have played in 2 of the last 3 ACC Championship Games. They got to those games by finishing strong, going 2-0 SU & ATS in their final regular season games prior to the ACC Championship Game.
Virginia Tech also knows they can handle the Cavaliers, as they are 8-0 SU (+21.2 ppg) & 8-0 ATS (+12.8 ppg) as a favorite of 3+ points vs. Virginia and not playing its 3rd straight road game.
The Hokies are also 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home finales and not off an ATS loss of 25+ points, and an outstanding 14-0 ATS (+8 ppg) with a line between -10 & +19 and less than 13 days rest off scoring less than 24 points in each of their last 2 games.
Their defense should set up some easy scores for the offense here, as the hosts should ride the energy of the home crowd to the ACC title game with a solid SU & ATS victory over the hated Cavaliers.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: VIRGINIA TECH 24 VIRGINIA 10
12:00 PM EST – CBS
3 STAR SELECTION
Georgia Tech +7½ over GEORGIA
Peach State rivals will collide early on Saturday, as the 13th-ranked Bulldogs play host to the 18th-ranked Yellow Jackets.
Last Thursday, Georgia Tech manhandled Miami, 41-23, in a critical ACC game. They must wait to see if they have earned a spot in the league title game. Virginia Tech owns a tie-breaker over Georgia Tech, and the Hokies will face rival Virginia on Saturday. If VaTech wins, it will play in the ACC championship game. An unexpected win by the Cavaliers would give that right to the Yellow Jackets. Georgia Tech is under the guidance of first-year head coach Paul Johnson, who has successfully installed the wishbone offense that he utilized to near perfection while at Navy, and we look for the Jackets to give us a tremendous effort here against Georgia, whether they find out they are going to the ACC title game or not.
Georgia started out as the preseason #1 team, but are 9-2 overall. The last two outings and five of the last six games have resulted in victory, including a close 17-13 decision over Auburn two weeks ago
Georgia Tech is averaging nearly 25 ppg and almost 375 total ypg, relying heavily on the run. The Yellow Jackets are pounding out more than 270 rushing yards per contest on an average of 5.5 ypc. Coach Johnson's offense features a pair of talented sophomores in quarterback Josh Nesbitt and tailback Jonathan Dwyer. Tech gashed Miami for 472 rushing yards on 56 attempts last week, the second-most rushing yards ever surrendered in a single game by the Hurricanes.
The Yellow Jackets have also benefited from tremendous defense this season, as they are limiting opponents to less than 17 ppg and under 300 total ypg. Tech is surrendering just 120 rushing ypg on 3.5 yards per carry. Also, the pass defense is limiting opposing quarterback to 9.5 yards per completion, and 17 interceptions have certainly helped the cause. With 27 total takeaways and 30 sacks, Tech owns one of the best big-play defenses in the nation, and should certainly them in the game here against a Georgia offense that has not been hitting on all cylinders.
The Bulldogs do have potential to do damage both on the ground and through the air, and are generating 31 ppg and 429 total ypg. The best skill position player on the offensive side of the ball is Knowshon Moreno, the team's star tailback. He has rushed for nearly 1,250 yards and 15 TDs while averaging 5.9 yards per carry. Quarterback Matthew Stafford has completed 61 percent of his passes, and he has thrown for 17 touchdowns against only eight interceptions.
On defense this season, opponents are generating nearly 24 ppg against Georgia, which is yielding 308 total ypg. The run defense has been strong, limiting foes to 105 ypg on 3.3 yards per rushing attempt; however, they have not faced a rushing attack the likes of Georgia Tech’s. The Bulldogs are likely to have a hard time slowing down the Yellow Jackets.
It's been a frustrating season for Georgia, which started #1 in the nation but is now looking at a trip to the Capital One Bowl.
"I don't even know what I could say other than it's been a tough grind," coach Mark Richt told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, describing the season so far.
Georgia got blown out by Alabama and Florida. The last two games, the Bulldogs edged Kentucky and Auburn.
"After having a tough loss, we played two extremely emotional games and we hung in there and we finished," Richt told the newspaper.
"I think once you lose the opportunity to play for the SEC championship, it could make a lot of guys say, 'Is it really worth it?' that kind of thing. But our guys kept fighting."
It certainly has been a grind for the Bulldogs who have been away from home for their last 4 games, and after 4 games away from home, teams finally returning to their own neighborhood for their final home game have not had anything left in the tank. We confirmed this with database research and discovered a POWER SYSTEM which states:
In its Final Home Game, play AGAINST a team (not an underdog of 30+ points) off a Saturday road/neutral site contest in its last game and 3 road/neutral site games before that.
Teams in this situation are 0-12 ATS since 1980, failing to cover the spread by 2 TDs, and may be even worse, as that’s as far back as the college football SportsDataBase goes. Last to qualify as a PLAY AGAINST team was Georgia against Georgia Tech in 2004. The Bulldogs were favored by 15 points, but could only manage a 19-13 victory. Now, Georgia is active again, and playing the Jackets.
The Bulldogs are also 0-10 ATS (-8.9 ppg) as a favorite of 3-23 points and not off an ATS win of 3+ points vs. opponents playing with revenge, while Georgia Tech is 10-0 ATS (+10.1 ppg) when not favored by 14+ points vs. opponents off 2 ATS losses since 2004, including 2-0 ATS this season. The Yellow Jackets should be the more motivated team here and we look for them to make this a game all the way to the wire, with the game decided by no more than FG.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: GEORGIA 24 GEORGIA TECH 21
3:30 PM EST – ABC
3 STAR SELECTION
FLORIDA STATE +16½ over Florida
The 2nd-ranked Gators make the short trip to take on the 23rd-ranked Seminoles, as both Sunshine State teams wrap up their regular season schedules.
Florida's only loss of the season came in late September to Ole Miss by one point. Since then, the Gators have won seven games in a row, including a 70-19 romp over The Citadel last weekend. The Gators will collide with current #1 Alabama in the SEC title game next week.
Florida State is fresh off a dominant 37-3 romp at Maryland last weekend. The Seminoles now must cheer for the Terps this week, as a Maryland victory over Boston College on Saturday would put the 'Noles in the ACC championship game. Florida State is 8-3 overall, and the three losses have all come by 10 or fewer points.
Florida is racking up more than 46 ppg this season on the strength of 445 total ypg. The offense is led by the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, quarterback Tim Tebow, who has thrown only two interceptions this season and has completed 66% of his tosses for over 2,000 yards. He is surrounded by tremendous talent, with the versatile Percy Harvin being the most dangerous weapon of all.
Defensively, the Gators rank near the top of the national charts in many key statistical categories. Most importantly, they are third in scoring defense, yielding a mere 12 ppg. They are ninth in total defense thanks to top-20 standing in both rush and pass defense.
Florida State is quarterbacked by Christian Ponder, who is helping the team post 34 ppg this season on 380 total ypg. RB Antone Smith leads the club with 14 rushing touchdowns, and Ponder has thrown for 12 scores.
It is hard to imagine the Seminoles stop unit playing any better than it did in the game against Maryland. Florida State only yielded 252 total yards and came up with four takeaways while limiting the Terps to 3.6 yards per rushing attempt and 9.3 yards per pass completion. We expect the ‘Noles defense to keep the team in the game here.
While the Gators have owned this series of late, winning at Tallahassee has never been easy for Florida, as they are 0-8 ATS (-9.6 ppg) at Florida State and not seeking revenge for a SU loss allowing 33+ points.
The Seminoles have lost the last 4 games, and we note that teams with just a single loss on the season have struggled as an unrested road favorite against opponents playing with at least triple revenge. Specifically, road favorites of 8-29½ points with 1 season SU loss and playing their final game with less than 13 days rest are 0-7 ATS since 1987 vs. opponents seeking revenge for SU losses in the last 3 matchups.
We also note that from Game 11 on, teams with less than 13 days rest off a non-lined SU win in its last game and 3 SU wins before that are 0-7 ATS (-11.6).
Florida State is 4-0 ATS as a home underdog of 2+ points off an ATS win in its last game, and 7-0 ATS as an underdog of 2+ points seeking revenge for a SU loss of 11+ points. The Seminoles defense should keep the Gators offense in check, while Florida may be caught here peeking ahead a bit to next week’s SEC Championship Game. Our Power Ratings also indicate that the hosts should keep this game within a TD for at least a comfortable spread win.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: FLORIDA 35 FLORIDA STATE 28
12:00 PM EST
4 STAR SELECTION
NORTH CAROLINA STATE +2 over Miami, FL
The Wolfpack will try to avoid a repeat of last year's season finale when they host the Hurricanes on Saturday. The scenario for North Carolina State is simple: win, and they'll become bowl eligible. Lose, and go home - again. Last season, with a bowl berth on the line in their final game against Maryland, the Wolfpack were blanked at home, 37-0. This time, however, they've got momentum on their side, having won three straight.
Miami, Florida enters this game off last Thursday's 41-23 loss at Georgia Tech. The setback snapped the Hurricanes' five-game win streak, which was the team's longest win streak since an eight-game tear in 2005.
The Hurricanes have made their share of mistakes with their 2 freshman quarterbacks Robert Marve and Jacory Harris. They had trouble moving the chains against the Yellow Jackets in their last outing, as they converted just 3-of-13 third downs. The Hurricanes have managed to average 28 points, although their defense and special teams have had a part in that.
The Miami defense was completely overmatched by Georgia Tech's option game last Thursday. By the time the final whistle blew, the Yellow Jackets had rolled up 472 yards on the ground, marking the second-most the Hurricanes have ever allowed in their storied history. It was a rude awakening for a Miami team that entered the game ranked for the first time in two years. Miami also enters this game with only three interceptions on the season, so this unit does not make a lot of big plays.
Last weekend against #25 North Carolina, the Wolfpack looked as sharp as they have all season en route to a 41-10 victory. QB Russell Wilson completed 17-of-29 passes for 279 yards and two TDs. He has now thrown over 200 consecutive passes without an interception, the longest active streak in the nation. He has also thrown multiple touchdowns in five straight games, as offense has been finding its groove.
The Wolfpack defense forced North Carolina into a season-high six turnovers last week, which was obviously a big factor in the win. They were able to stuff the Tarheels at every turn, holding the North Carolina to just over 200 yards of total offense.
NC State is playing very well at this point in the season and will simply want this game more than the Hurricanes. Miami was in charge of their fate in the ACC Coastal Division race. Had they won their last two conference games, they would have been in the league championship game in Tampa on December 6th; however, those hopes are now gone. The Hurricanes needed Virginia to win to create the possibility of a three-way tie involving the Hurricanes, Yellow Jackets and Cavaliers, but the Cavs lost to Clemson. Both Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech, who, like Miami, have three conference losses each, hold the tie-breaker advantage over the Hurricanes to determine the division's berth in the championship game.
While Miami has a winning record on the season, they have a losing spread mark, and we look to play AGAINST a team with a good SU record but a bad ATS record. Such teams are the most overvalued on the board. Due to their good SU mark, they will continue to get a lot of attention, and thus money, from the public, preserving the line value in playing against them.
The numbers, however, tell us to steer clear of the Hurricanes here, as they are an awful 0-16 ATS (-16.6 ppg) as a favorite of less than 33 points with less than 13 days rest off a SU loss and 0-9 ATS (-11.1 ppg) as a favorite seeking revenge since 2003.
Miami also is active for an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM revealing that after a road underdog loss stopped a winning streak, teams in the role of road favorite have continued their struggles away from home. This system states:
In its Final Game, play AGAINST a road favorite of more than 1 point with less than 13 days rest off a road underdog SU loss in its last game and 2 SU wins before that vs. an opponent not off a non-lined SU loss.
Teams in this spot are 0-12 ATS since at least 1980, and possibly even worse than that, as that is as far back as the SportsDataBase goes.
Meanwhile, with North Carolina State we can play ON a team with a poor SU record but a great ATS record. Such teams are the most undervalued on the board. Due to their bad SU mark, they won't get a lot of attention from the public, preserving their line value. The overlooked WolfPack are now 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games, 7-0 ATS vs. ACC teams this season, and 6-0 SU (+10.2 ppg) & 6-0 SU (+12.7 ppg) as an underdog of less than 5 points vs. opponents off a SU loss since 1999.
Finally, our database research shows that small home underdogs in their final game of the season have been very strong coming off a win in which they weren’t a clear favorite. This is documented by another POWER SYSTEM which reads:
In its Final Game, play ON a conference home underdog of 3 points or less off a SU win (not a favorite of 3+ points) vs. an opponent not off a conference SU loss of less than 4 points.
Going back to 1989, these teams are 13-0 ATS, blasting the spread by nearly 17 ppg on average! Last week, it was Northwestern as a small home dog against Illinois. The Wildcats won easily, 27-10, and beat the spread by 19½ points. Now, NC State qualifies as the PLAY ON team.
The WolfPack will be very hungry and motivated here, while the ‘Canes have little to play for, so we look for the hosts to come away with the SU & ATS victory.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: NORTH CAROLINA STATE 31 MIAMI, FL 24
8:00 PM EST – ABC
4 STAR SELECTION
USC -31½ over Notre Dame
The 5th-ranked Trojans and Fighting Irish hook up for the 80th time on the gridiron Saturday night, as they clash at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.
With a 9-1 overall mark and a lofting ranking, the Trojans are very much alive for the national title race, although they are going to need some help down the stretch. Since losing its only game to Oregon State in late September, the Trojans have ripped off seven straight victories, including three shutouts during that stretch. The team was last in play 2 weeks ago, when it defeated Stanford 45-23 on the road.
Notre Dame has fallen apart down the stretch and hit a very sour note last week with a shocking 24-23 setback at home to lowly Syracuse. It was the third loss in the past four outings by the Irish, which dipped to 6-5 overall.
Notre Dame has been up and down on offense all season long and enter the weekend averaging less than 25 ppg and 370 total ypg. The unit has had more success through the air than on the ground, due to a very bad rushing attack. It has also has had some issues hanging onto the ball, committing 25 turnovers.
Despite avoiding any turnovers last weekend, ND wasn't able to defeat Syracuse behind its 332 yards of total offense. Jimmy Clausen guided the team in the loss by throwing for 291 yards and two touchdowns on 22-of-39 tosses. Like the rest of the offense, though, Clausen has struggled with consistency this season and has thrown for 2,730 yards and 20 scores, but with 15 interceptions as well.
The Irish have been fairly solid on defense this season and is holding its opponents to 21 ppg and 317 total ypg. Last weekend, they suffered another fourth quarter meltdown when it allowed Syracuse to score a pair of touchdowns, including the game-winner with 42 seconds left. Both scores came on drives of 68 yards, as Syracuse posted a majority of its 317 total yards in the final period. If they thought they were having trouble containing the Orange offense, they are going to be in for a very long day against USC.
The Trojans have excelled on both sides of the ball this season and on offense they are scoring 38 ppg and gaining 450+ total ypg. The offense has displayed good balance between the run and pass and is converting 45% of the time on third down.
In its last game, USC racked up 418 total yards, including 282 on the ground, in a victory over Stanford. Stafon Johnson led the charge with 115 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 14 carries, while C.J. Gable went for 85 yards and a score on the same amount of attempts. The duo have been a nice complement to one another and have combined for 1,143 yards and 14 touchdowns on the ground. Quarterback Mark Sanchez also got involved in the win over Stanford, throwing for 136 yards and two touchdowns on 11-of-17 tosses. It was a modest performance by Sanchez, who has flourished this season, converting 65% of his pass attempts for over 2,200 yards, with 26 TDs against just seven INTs.
While USC's offense has certainly been prolific, it actually takes a back seat to the defense, which leads the nation in scoring and ranks second in total yards. The Trojans lead the nation in pass defense, allowing just 132.3 ypg, and they have been every bit as good against the run, yielding a mere 90.2 ypg. It all adds up to big trouble for the error-prone, inconsistent Notre Dame offense.
The Irish are 0-4 ATS as an underdog at USC since 1998, 0-2 SU (-34.5 ppg) & 0-2 ATS (-13.5 ppg) as an underdog of 14+ points vs. USC, and 0-4 SU & ATS as an underdog of 4+ points vs. rested opponents.
After blowing a game as a sizeable favorite at home, teams finishing the season as a big underdog on the road have simply not bothered to show up. This is confirmed by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM that Notre Dame qualifies for. This system reads:
In its Final Game, play AGAINST a road underdog of more than 11 points with less than 13 days rest off a home SU loss as a favorite of more than 6 points.
These teams are 0-9 ATS since 1980, and could be worse than that, as 1980 is as far back as the college football SportsDataBase goes. While that’s a small sample, it’s worth noting that the 9 qualifying teams have failed to cover the spread by more than 17 points per game on average.
USC certainly won’t be short here on motivation for a big win. First, the Trojans simply enjoy pounding the Irish in this yearly non-conference rivalry.
Secondly, we also like to play ON a heavy favorite that needs a blowout win due to poll or player pressure. A college coach that needs a decisive win to keep his team’s standing in the polls or who has talented athletes in backup roles will not hesitate to run up a score given a chance. A big win certainly won’t hurt the poll numbers, and young players will be kept happy if they get an opportunity to perform once they get on the field. The Trojans will want to build on their current ranking to keep their national title hopes alive.
In looking at some technical figures, we have USC at 9-0 ATS (+17.3 ppg) favored by 12-44 points with 12+ days rest since 2004, as well as being 6-0 SU (+26.5 ppg) & 6-0 ATS (+13.2 ppg) in their final home game and playing with revenge.
The Trojans, being rested, also qualify for another NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM of ours which reads:
In its Final Home Game, play ON a team with less than 2 season SU losses and 13-19 days rest vs. an opponent not off 19 SU wins.
Since 1984, these teams have shined, going 15-0 SU (+30.2 ppg) & 15-0 ATS (+14.3 ppg). USC happened to be the last team to qualify. In 2005, the Trojans dismantled UCLA 66-19 to cover the 21-point spread by 26 points!
The Irish have little to play for here, as they are already bowl eligible. The Trojans still have a possible national championship to play for, and will be looking to impress the pollsters with an impressive victory. It all adds up to a dominant SU & ATS for the hosts.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: USC 48 NOTRE DAME 0
12:00 PM EST – ESPN
3 STAR SELECTION
VIRGINIA TECH -7½ over Virginia
The Hokies have their eyes on an ACC title shot, as they host the rival Cavaliers in the regular-season finale for both teams. With a win this weekend, Virginia Tech would clinch the ACC Coastal Division crown and lock up a berth in the ACC Championship game in Tampa, Florida next weekend. The Hokies got here with a 14-3 win over Duke last weekend, shaking off losses in three of its previous four games.
Virginia has fallen back on hard times since a season-long four-game win streak through the month of October. So far in November, the Cavs have lost three straight, including last weekend's 13-3 setback to Clemson.
The Virginia offense has simply been offensive over the last few weeks. Against Clemson, they managed just 190 total yards. Marc Verica had a rough day under center, throwing for 160 yards and three interceptions. He didn't have a whole lot of support from the running game, as tailback Cedric Peerman gained just 45 yards on 19 carries. Virginia just does not possess the type of offense that can overcome lots of turnovers or a stiff defense, which is what they’ll face at Virginia Tech
The Cavaliers defense ranks near the bottom of the ACC in both scoring defense and total defense, so a mediocre Hokies offense should find some success in this game. Freshman tailback Darren Evans has tied a freshman school-record at Virginia Tech with nine rushing touchdowns and is within 74 yards of becoming the first freshman in school history to post a 1,000-yard rushing season. We look for the youngster to hit that mark, as the offense bullies the Cavs defense.
The VaTech defense picked off Duke quarterback Zack Asack four time last week and held the Blue Devils to only six first downs and 136 total yards for the game. In addition, Duke converted just 1-of-12 third downs. Duke is by no means an offensive juggernaut, but those types of statistics are no fluke for a Tech defense that hasn't allowed more than 16 points in a game since October. The Hokies enter this game boasting the nation's eighth-ranked defense in terms of yards allowed, and there are playmakers all up and down this unit.
The Cavaliers will not be bowling with another loss, so they have little to look forward to and little to fight for once they fall behind here. They are 0-11 ATS (-13.9 ppg) in their last 11 SU losses back to 2006, demonstrating that when things aren’t going well, they tend to fall apart.
Virginia’s current losing streak also qualifies them for an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM which states:
In its Final Game, play AGAINST a road team (not an underdog of more than 10 points) with 6 season SU losses off 3 SU losses and not favored in its last 2 games.
Since the mid-1980s, these teams are a horrible 0-18-1 ATS, failing to cover the spread by more than 13 ppg on average.
With Virginia Tech here, we get the opportunity to play ON a power team in a “must-win” situation to qualify for a conference championship or bowl game if the team’s fundamental character has not changed from its better days. Ultimately, the most important factor is whether the team sincerely believes they belong in the postseason.
The Hokies certainly believe they belong, as they have played in 2 of the last 3 ACC Championship Games. They got to those games by finishing strong, going 2-0 SU & ATS in their final regular season games prior to the ACC Championship Game.
Virginia Tech also knows they can handle the Cavaliers, as they are 8-0 SU (+21.2 ppg) & 8-0 ATS (+12.8 ppg) as a favorite of 3+ points vs. Virginia and not playing its 3rd straight road game.
The Hokies are also 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home finales and not off an ATS loss of 25+ points, and an outstanding 14-0 ATS (+8 ppg) with a line between -10 & +19 and less than 13 days rest off scoring less than 24 points in each of their last 2 games.
Their defense should set up some easy scores for the offense here, as the hosts should ride the energy of the home crowd to the ACC title game with a solid SU & ATS victory over the hated Cavaliers.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: VIRGINIA TECH 24 VIRGINIA 10
12:00 PM EST – CBS
3 STAR SELECTION
Georgia Tech +7½ over GEORGIA
Peach State rivals will collide early on Saturday, as the 13th-ranked Bulldogs play host to the 18th-ranked Yellow Jackets.
Last Thursday, Georgia Tech manhandled Miami, 41-23, in a critical ACC game. They must wait to see if they have earned a spot in the league title game. Virginia Tech owns a tie-breaker over Georgia Tech, and the Hokies will face rival Virginia on Saturday. If VaTech wins, it will play in the ACC championship game. An unexpected win by the Cavaliers would give that right to the Yellow Jackets. Georgia Tech is under the guidance of first-year head coach Paul Johnson, who has successfully installed the wishbone offense that he utilized to near perfection while at Navy, and we look for the Jackets to give us a tremendous effort here against Georgia, whether they find out they are going to the ACC title game or not.
Georgia started out as the preseason #1 team, but are 9-2 overall. The last two outings and five of the last six games have resulted in victory, including a close 17-13 decision over Auburn two weeks ago
Georgia Tech is averaging nearly 25 ppg and almost 375 total ypg, relying heavily on the run. The Yellow Jackets are pounding out more than 270 rushing yards per contest on an average of 5.5 ypc. Coach Johnson's offense features a pair of talented sophomores in quarterback Josh Nesbitt and tailback Jonathan Dwyer. Tech gashed Miami for 472 rushing yards on 56 attempts last week, the second-most rushing yards ever surrendered in a single game by the Hurricanes.
The Yellow Jackets have also benefited from tremendous defense this season, as they are limiting opponents to less than 17 ppg and under 300 total ypg. Tech is surrendering just 120 rushing ypg on 3.5 yards per carry. Also, the pass defense is limiting opposing quarterback to 9.5 yards per completion, and 17 interceptions have certainly helped the cause. With 27 total takeaways and 30 sacks, Tech owns one of the best big-play defenses in the nation, and should certainly them in the game here against a Georgia offense that has not been hitting on all cylinders.
The Bulldogs do have potential to do damage both on the ground and through the air, and are generating 31 ppg and 429 total ypg. The best skill position player on the offensive side of the ball is Knowshon Moreno, the team's star tailback. He has rushed for nearly 1,250 yards and 15 TDs while averaging 5.9 yards per carry. Quarterback Matthew Stafford has completed 61 percent of his passes, and he has thrown for 17 touchdowns against only eight interceptions.
On defense this season, opponents are generating nearly 24 ppg against Georgia, which is yielding 308 total ypg. The run defense has been strong, limiting foes to 105 ypg on 3.3 yards per rushing attempt; however, they have not faced a rushing attack the likes of Georgia Tech’s. The Bulldogs are likely to have a hard time slowing down the Yellow Jackets.
It's been a frustrating season for Georgia, which started #1 in the nation but is now looking at a trip to the Capital One Bowl.
"I don't even know what I could say other than it's been a tough grind," coach Mark Richt told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, describing the season so far.
Georgia got blown out by Alabama and Florida. The last two games, the Bulldogs edged Kentucky and Auburn.
"After having a tough loss, we played two extremely emotional games and we hung in there and we finished," Richt told the newspaper.
"I think once you lose the opportunity to play for the SEC championship, it could make a lot of guys say, 'Is it really worth it?' that kind of thing. But our guys kept fighting."
It certainly has been a grind for the Bulldogs who have been away from home for their last 4 games, and after 4 games away from home, teams finally returning to their own neighborhood for their final home game have not had anything left in the tank. We confirmed this with database research and discovered a POWER SYSTEM which states:
In its Final Home Game, play AGAINST a team (not an underdog of 30+ points) off a Saturday road/neutral site contest in its last game and 3 road/neutral site games before that.
Teams in this situation are 0-12 ATS since 1980, failing to cover the spread by 2 TDs, and may be even worse, as that’s as far back as the college football SportsDataBase goes. Last to qualify as a PLAY AGAINST team was Georgia against Georgia Tech in 2004. The Bulldogs were favored by 15 points, but could only manage a 19-13 victory. Now, Georgia is active again, and playing the Jackets.
The Bulldogs are also 0-10 ATS (-8.9 ppg) as a favorite of 3-23 points and not off an ATS win of 3+ points vs. opponents playing with revenge, while Georgia Tech is 10-0 ATS (+10.1 ppg) when not favored by 14+ points vs. opponents off 2 ATS losses since 2004, including 2-0 ATS this season. The Yellow Jackets should be the more motivated team here and we look for them to make this a game all the way to the wire, with the game decided by no more than FG.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: GEORGIA 24 GEORGIA TECH 21
3:30 PM EST – ABC
3 STAR SELECTION
FLORIDA STATE +16½ over Florida
The 2nd-ranked Gators make the short trip to take on the 23rd-ranked Seminoles, as both Sunshine State teams wrap up their regular season schedules.
Florida's only loss of the season came in late September to Ole Miss by one point. Since then, the Gators have won seven games in a row, including a 70-19 romp over The Citadel last weekend. The Gators will collide with current #1 Alabama in the SEC title game next week.
Florida State is fresh off a dominant 37-3 romp at Maryland last weekend. The Seminoles now must cheer for the Terps this week, as a Maryland victory over Boston College on Saturday would put the 'Noles in the ACC championship game. Florida State is 8-3 overall, and the three losses have all come by 10 or fewer points.
Florida is racking up more than 46 ppg this season on the strength of 445 total ypg. The offense is led by the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, quarterback Tim Tebow, who has thrown only two interceptions this season and has completed 66% of his tosses for over 2,000 yards. He is surrounded by tremendous talent, with the versatile Percy Harvin being the most dangerous weapon of all.
Defensively, the Gators rank near the top of the national charts in many key statistical categories. Most importantly, they are third in scoring defense, yielding a mere 12 ppg. They are ninth in total defense thanks to top-20 standing in both rush and pass defense.
Florida State is quarterbacked by Christian Ponder, who is helping the team post 34 ppg this season on 380 total ypg. RB Antone Smith leads the club with 14 rushing touchdowns, and Ponder has thrown for 12 scores.
It is hard to imagine the Seminoles stop unit playing any better than it did in the game against Maryland. Florida State only yielded 252 total yards and came up with four takeaways while limiting the Terps to 3.6 yards per rushing attempt and 9.3 yards per pass completion. We expect the ‘Noles defense to keep the team in the game here.
While the Gators have owned this series of late, winning at Tallahassee has never been easy for Florida, as they are 0-8 ATS (-9.6 ppg) at Florida State and not seeking revenge for a SU loss allowing 33+ points.
The Seminoles have lost the last 4 games, and we note that teams with just a single loss on the season have struggled as an unrested road favorite against opponents playing with at least triple revenge. Specifically, road favorites of 8-29½ points with 1 season SU loss and playing their final game with less than 13 days rest are 0-7 ATS since 1987 vs. opponents seeking revenge for SU losses in the last 3 matchups.
We also note that from Game 11 on, teams with less than 13 days rest off a non-lined SU win in its last game and 3 SU wins before that are 0-7 ATS (-11.6).
Florida State is 4-0 ATS as a home underdog of 2+ points off an ATS win in its last game, and 7-0 ATS as an underdog of 2+ points seeking revenge for a SU loss of 11+ points. The Seminoles defense should keep the Gators offense in check, while Florida may be caught here peeking ahead a bit to next week’s SEC Championship Game. Our Power Ratings also indicate that the hosts should keep this game within a TD for at least a comfortable spread win.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: FLORIDA 35 FLORIDA STATE 28
westcoastsportspicks
NCAA football 11/29/2008
12:00:00 PM Miami -2
NCAA football 11/29/2008
12:00:00 PM South Carolina +1 Underdog Game of the Month 8-1 YTD
NCAA football 11/29/2008
3:30:00 PM Texas Tech -22
NCAA football 11/29/2008
3:30:00 PM Alabama -14.5
NCAA football 11/29/2008
3:33:00 PM Florida -16
NCAA football 11/29/2008
6:30:00 PM Tennessee -3.5
NCAA football 11/29/2008
12:00:00 PM Miami -2
NCAA football 11/29/2008
12:00:00 PM South Carolina +1 Underdog Game of the Month 8-1 YTD
NCAA football 11/29/2008
3:30:00 PM Texas Tech -22
NCAA football 11/29/2008
3:30:00 PM Alabama -14.5
NCAA football 11/29/2008
3:33:00 PM Florida -16
NCAA football 11/29/2008
6:30:00 PM Tennessee -3.5
Computer Crushers Guaranteed Selections
Date: Saturday, November 29, 2008
$35.00 Guaranteed: The STRONGEST PLAY in all of College Football is now 79-47 run since 2006! These are the STRONGEST PLAYS IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL and they have a history of hitting over 68% the past 19 years! Today you can get our 1000K BIG EAST CONFERENCE CRUSHER PLAY OF THE YEAR for only $35 and you MUST WIN THIS Game or you will not be charged!!! We are currently on an 66-25 run with all of our guranteed plays! 11/29/2008
1000K BIG EAST CONFERENCE CRUSHER PLAY OF THE YEAR
348 Cincinnati -21 12 noon est
Computer Crushers Guaranteed Selections
Date: Saturday, November 29, 2008
$25.00 Guaranteed: The STRONGEST PLAY in all of College Football is now 79-47 run since 2006! These are the STRONGEST PLAYS IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL and they have a history of hitting over 68% the past 19 years! Today you can get our 1000K COLLEGE FOOTBALL DOMINATOR for only $25 and you MUST WIN THIS Game or you will not be charged!!! We are currently on an 66-25 run with all of our guranteed plays! 11/29/2008
1000K COLLEGE FOOTBALL DOMINATOR
362 Missouri -16 12:30 EST
Date: Saturday, November 29, 2008
$35.00 Guaranteed: The STRONGEST PLAY in all of College Football is now 79-47 run since 2006! These are the STRONGEST PLAYS IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL and they have a history of hitting over 68% the past 19 years! Today you can get our 1000K BIG EAST CONFERENCE CRUSHER PLAY OF THE YEAR for only $35 and you MUST WIN THIS Game or you will not be charged!!! We are currently on an 66-25 run with all of our guranteed plays! 11/29/2008
1000K BIG EAST CONFERENCE CRUSHER PLAY OF THE YEAR
348 Cincinnati -21 12 noon est
Computer Crushers Guaranteed Selections
Date: Saturday, November 29, 2008
$25.00 Guaranteed: The STRONGEST PLAY in all of College Football is now 79-47 run since 2006! These are the STRONGEST PLAYS IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL and they have a history of hitting over 68% the past 19 years! Today you can get our 1000K COLLEGE FOOTBALL DOMINATOR for only $25 and you MUST WIN THIS Game or you will not be charged!!! We are currently on an 66-25 run with all of our guranteed plays! 11/29/2008
1000K COLLEGE FOOTBALL DOMINATOR
362 Missouri -16 12:30 EST
