For anyone who likes the writeups...Drew Gordon
1. 200,000♦ Florida
2. 50,000♦ Boston College
3. 50,000♦ Kentcuky
1. Florida- I know plenty of you are worried about this being a rivalry game, and the implications of that might have on this contest. But rest-assured, the Gators will take Seminoles behind the woodshed this afternoon, and here's why:
Rewind to last year's meeting, a 45-12 blowout win by Florida at the Swamp, and you see just how far apart these two teams are. In fact, I believe its safe to say the Gators have gotten better (more dyanmic), while the Seminoles have taken a step back in order to take a step forward with the young Christian Ponder at the quarterback position. Last year, it was Tebow
to Harvin and nothing else, but this year the Gators offense has blossomed with a stable of talented RBs in Rainey, Moody, and Demps. Seminoles will not be able to key on any one player, which makes all the difference in this match up.
Speaking of Ponder, while the sophomore has helped lead his team to a solid 8-3 record, he's still got a long way to go before he gets my vote of confidence. Herein lies the problem, as he can be maddeningly inconsistent at times, and against ball-hawking defense like Gators, that can spell disaster. For example, in his last 4 games he's thrown 3 TDs to 5 INTs, and has completed more than 59% of his passes just once, in his last one against a turtle-slow Maryland defense. He's about to take a MAJOR step up in competition, and I expect he'll take a major step down in production this afternoon.
On the flip side, Tebow proved last season he has no trouble beating this FSU defense, scoring a whopping 5 TDs against them last season (3 passing and 2 rushing)! He's deferred his personal stats for wins this season, allowing the running game to feature more running backs and less of his always dangerous scrambling. Don't be fooled by the Seminoles 37-3 win at Maryland either, as the two games prior (both at Doak Campbell against much lesser offenses - Clemson and Boston College) the opposing offenses droped 27 points each time. We could see the Gators double that number this afternoon.
Finally, speaking of the Florida State defense, name me one team they played this season that is considered a proficient passing attack? Its a trick question, because the answer is NO ONE. Look for a suspect secondary to be the downfall of the Seminoles this afternoon, as Tebow has been rolling thru the air of late. As a final note, the Seminoles and RB Smith can dream on about running the ball in this contest, as the Gators have tightened up against the rush, allowing only 3.0 yards per carry over their last 3 games. In the end, the Gators perform a death roll on the Seminoles today in Tally, taking this contest with ease.
Take Florida BIG over Florida State as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Boston College- Everyone seems mighty concerned about the Eagles losing Chris Crane for the season, but let me be the one to tell you, don't make the mistake of overestimating his loss. Not only is backup Domonique Davis very talented, but we all know BC doesn't win with offense, it wins with defense and the same will be true in this match up.
Maryland showed last week at Florida State just how incredibly inconsistent they can be... And now you want to back them on the road, against a highly motivated opponent, playing for a possible shot in the ACC title game?! Guys, this much is clear: Maryland is a good team overall, but they fall well below average when they travel, and if you need proof... Check out losses at Middle Tennessee, at Virginia, and at Virginia Tech, losing those 3 road games by a combined score of 27 to 78!
Also, let's not forget, this BC team is playing damn good football right now, winners of 3 straight games including 2 impressive road wins in a row (at FSU, and at Wake Forest)! Over those 3 games, its been the defense that's carried them, allowing just 12 ppg on 255 total yards, including just 68 rushing yards per game over that span! That's bad news for a Terrapins team that needs RBs Scott and Megget to produce in order to take pressure off of QB Turner. They were relatively quiet last week, and Turner struggled mightily, tossing 2 INTs and no TDs.
Finally, you know damn sure the Eagles haven't forgotten last year's 42-35 loss at Maryland. Its payabck time, as the Eagles get to return the favor in front of their home fans this time around! In the end, the loss of Crane hurts some, but not enough for me to look any other way but Boston College in this contest, as the Eagles take care business against a very road-weary Terrapins bunch today.
Take Boston College over Maryland in this college football match up.
3. Kentucky- If I were writing a fairytale, I'd be inclined to have Phil Fulmer win his final game in Knoxville, and tie up his suddebly tail-spinning legacy with a nice bow. However, we all know I much prefer to write non-fiction, and by that I mean, the Wildcats are clearly the play here for several reasons:
First, don't be fooled by the Vols 20-10 win at Vandy last week. I gave you that play as one of my 200K TripleHeader winners, because it was clear Vandy was disinterested and would be vulnerable. In other words, it was more a play against Vandy than for Tennessee, so don't make the rookie mistake of jumping all over the Vols because they won one game!
True, a return home should bode well for the Volunteers, but I still don't see more than field goal separating these two teams. Both offenses in this contest are piss-poor, but I'll give the slight edge to Kentucky, which has averaged 25 ppg over their last 3. The Vols meanwhile are averaging just 11 ppg on a putrid 244 total yards over that span! Guys, the Wildcats defense may not be great, but the Vols sorry-ass offense has a way of making defenses look A LOT better.
Finally, from a trend standpoint, the visitor in this series in 5-0 ATS (Wildcats 8-3 ATS over their last 11 road games). Also, and probably most importantly, the Wildcats are an impressive 6-0 ATS when coming off a bye after a loss, which tells me they should be razor sharp in this contest. In the end, last week at Vandy was the time to ride this Voluteers team... Look for them to get back to burning their backers (just 1-5 ATS at home) this week against Kentucky.
Take Kentucky plus the points over Tennessee in this college football match up.
