NOVEMBER 29 2008
FRANK PATRON 30000 UNIT GAME OF MY CAREER #32
FRANK PATRON
30000 UNIT GAME OF MY CAREER #32
TULSA GOLDEN HURRICANE -16
Forget Marshall staying with this team today because its not happening. Forget about the Thundering Herds week 1 win over Illinois State when they scored 35 points. Since that game that have scored in the 30s just twice this year but heres the bigger problem they have scored over 21 just 3 times excluding week 1.
Tulsa has scored below 40 points just 3 times this season and over 30 points in every game except for their loss at Arkansas. This team will score at will today and I do not see how Marshall will be able to match it. Look for Tulsa to at least 50 on this Marshall team as I feel this will be one major blowout.
FRANK PATRON 30000 UNIT GAME OF MY CAREER #32
FRANK PATRON
30000 UNIT GAME OF MY CAREER #32
TULSA GOLDEN HURRICANE -16
Forget Marshall staying with this team today because its not happening. Forget about the Thundering Herds week 1 win over Illinois State when they scored 35 points. Since that game that have scored in the 30s just twice this year but heres the bigger problem they have scored over 21 just 3 times excluding week 1.
Tulsa has scored below 40 points just 3 times this season and over 30 points in every game except for their loss at Arkansas. This team will score at will today and I do not see how Marshall will be able to match it. Look for Tulsa to at least 50 on this Marshall team as I feel this will be one major blowout.
Just received VictoriousPlay Plays...
NCAAF Victorious Plays:
Maryland @ Boston College
Good game in perspective between these two. At home Boston College is very strong and today we don’t expect that to be different. Maryland on the other hand is not a high scoring team but their defensive line gives too much space and against a team such as Boston College the edge is clearly on the Boston College side. According to our system Boston College should cover the spread.
Recommendation: 2* Boston College -6.5 @ -110
Florida @ Florida St.
Highly offensive teams playing against each other in today’s clash. Both can score enough points to send every line Over but will they concede enough? If you simply look at their records you’ll see that is not easy at all to score against any of these teams. Today is a little bit different. We have a local game and of course the environment will be a bit different. In today’s game we expect both teams to score enough points to send this game Over.
Recommendation: 2* Under 55 @ -110
NCAAF Victorious Plays:
Maryland @ Boston College
Good game in perspective between these two. At home Boston College is very strong and today we don’t expect that to be different. Maryland on the other hand is not a high scoring team but their defensive line gives too much space and against a team such as Boston College the edge is clearly on the Boston College side. According to our system Boston College should cover the spread.
Recommendation: 2* Boston College -6.5 @ -110
Florida @ Florida St.
Highly offensive teams playing against each other in today’s clash. Both can score enough points to send every line Over but will they concede enough? If you simply look at their records you’ll see that is not easy at all to score against any of these teams. Today is a little bit different. We have a local game and of course the environment will be a bit different. In today’s game we expect both teams to score enough points to send this game Over.
Recommendation: 2* Under 55 @ -110
Ethan Law - CFB
<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->MANHATTAN SYNDICATE PLAY - Game of the Year
4% on WASHINGTON STATE +28.5
SATURDAY NCAA SELECTIONS
2% on MIAMI -1.5
2% on TENNESSEE -4
2% on VIRGINIA +8
2% on NEW MEXICO STATE +6
2% on DUKE +8
1% on WASHINGTON STATE +$1200
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<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->MANHATTAN SYNDICATE PLAY - Game of the Year
4% on WASHINGTON STATE +28.5
SATURDAY NCAA SELECTIONS
2% on MIAMI -1.5
2% on TENNESSEE -4
2% on VIRGINIA +8
2% on NEW MEXICO STATE +6
2% on DUKE +8
1% on WASHINGTON STATE +$1200
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Bob Balfe
College Football
North Carolina/Duke Over 44
For the first time in many years we cant say that we are looking forward to just the basketball matchup between both schools. Duke really turned the page this year and are no longer the laughing stock of college football. UNC has great athletes and themselves had a good year. Duke will not be playing in a bowl game so this is it today. UNC can lock up a decent bowl game if they get to 8 wins on the year. Look for the athletic ability for both teams to shine today. This should be a back and forth shootout. Take the Over.
Tennessee -4 over Kentucky
The Vols were picked on by the media all year which lead to coach Fulmers departure. This will be his last home game and he has done a lot for this program and his players have his respect. Tennessee still has the athletic ability to beat a lot of good football teams. This year they were plagued by turnovers. Look for the Vols to send their coach out in style today. Take Tennessee.
Baylor +22 over Texas Tech
The pressure of winning might catch up with Tech today. This football team needs a lot of help from their competition for things to work out for them in a title game. Baylor is much like Duke as they have turned the corner. Baylor has a decent running QB who will control the clock when they have the ball. I do not think Baylor can win outright, but they should keep it close.
NBA Basketball
TWolves +4.5 over Nuggets
NCAA Basketball
Detroit +2.5 over St. Louis
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College Football
North Carolina/Duke Over 44
For the first time in many years we cant say that we are looking forward to just the basketball matchup between both schools. Duke really turned the page this year and are no longer the laughing stock of college football. UNC has great athletes and themselves had a good year. Duke will not be playing in a bowl game so this is it today. UNC can lock up a decent bowl game if they get to 8 wins on the year. Look for the athletic ability for both teams to shine today. This should be a back and forth shootout. Take the Over.
Tennessee -4 over Kentucky
The Vols were picked on by the media all year which lead to coach Fulmers departure. This will be his last home game and he has done a lot for this program and his players have his respect. Tennessee still has the athletic ability to beat a lot of good football teams. This year they were plagued by turnovers. Look for the Vols to send their coach out in style today. Take Tennessee.
Baylor +22 over Texas Tech
The pressure of winning might catch up with Tech today. This football team needs a lot of help from their competition for things to work out for them in a title game. Baylor is much like Duke as they have turned the corner. Baylor has a decent running QB who will control the clock when they have the ball. I do not think Baylor can win outright, but they should keep it close.
NBA Basketball
TWolves +4.5 over Nuggets
NCAA Basketball
Detroit +2.5 over St. Louis
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THE SPORTS ADVISORS
(3) Oklahoma (10-1, 8-2 ATS) at (11) Oklahoma State (9-2, 8-2 ATS)
Oklahoma continues its quest for the Big 12 South title and a BCS championship game berth when it travels to Stillwater, Okla., for a meeting with Oklahoma State in the 103rd edition of the Bedlam Rivalry.
The Sooners made a big statement last week in destroying No. 2 Texas Tech 65-21 as a seven-point home favorite for their fifth consecutive victory and fourth straight spread-cover. Oklahoma took a 42-7 halftime lead into halftime and cruised from there, outgaining the Red Raiders 625-406 overall, including 299-45 on the ground, while the struggling Sooners defense stepped up and forced three turnovers and registered four sacks.
Oklahoma is 6-1 in conference play and enters tonight one-half game behind Texas (7-1) and tied with Texas Tech in the Big 12 North race. If the Sooners beat Oklahoma State and Texas Tech takes down Baylor today, there will be a three-way tie atop the division, and next week’s BCS standings will be used to determine the division winner and representative in next week’s Big 12 championship game.
The Cowboys are 2-2 SU and ATS since starting the season 7-0, with those two loses coming on the road at No. 1 Texas (28-24) and No. 3 Texas Tech (56-20). Oklahoma State rebounded from the Texas Tech debacle in its most recent game Nov. 15, besting Colorado 30-17, but coming up short as a 17-point road chalk. It was the Cowboys’ second straight non-cover after starting out 8-0 ATS.
The Sooners are riding a five-game winning streak (3-2 ATS) in the Bedlam Rivalry, including last year’s 49-17 rout as a 13½-point home favorite. In its most recent trip to Stillwater, Oklahoma prevailed 27-21 as a five-point road chalk in 2006. Despite that result, the home team is on an 8-1-1 ATS roll in this series, with OU going 1-4 ATS in its last five visits to Boone Pickens Stadium.
Oklahoma has scored at least 35 points in every game this season and at least 45 points in all five of its wins during its current winning streak, tallying 62, 66 and 65 the last three weeks alone. The Sooners lead the nation in scoring offense (52.6 points per game), rank third in total offense (556.6 yards per game) and third in passing offense (352.8 ypg). Bob Stoops’ squad also averages 203.8 rushing yards per game on the season, including 273.3 ypg (6.2 per carry) in the last three. Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford, a Heisman Trophy candidate, has thrown for 3,710 yards (68.2 percent completion rate) and 42 TDs against just six INTs.
Oklahoma State is putting up 41.6 points and 492.6 total yards per game, including 261 rushing yards per contest (5.7 yards per carry). Dual-threat QB Zac Robinson has completed 67.2 percent of his throws for 2,484 yards with 21 TDs and seven INTs, and he’s added 418 yards and six scores on the ground.
The Cowboys are perfect at home (6-0 SU, 5-0 ATS), scoring at least 55 points in five of the victories and averaging 570.5 yards per game while surrendering 20.8 points and 343.8 yards per contest (126.8 rushing ypg). Meanwhile, Oklahoma is 4-0 SU and ATS in true road games, putting up 57 points and 591.5 yards per game, and giving up 23.5 points and 358.2 yards (92.8 rushing ypg).
In addition to its ongoing 4-0 ATS run (all of which has come in Big 12 play), Oklahoma is on ATS streaks of 5-0 on the road since last year, 5-2 against winning teams, 6-1 after a spread-cover and 7-1 following a 20-plus-point victory. The Cowboys are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight November outings, but otherwise they’re on ATS tears of 6-0 at home since last season, 5-1 versus winning teams, 5-2 in Big 12 play, 8-3 after a non-cover and 7-0 on field turf.
For the Sooners, the over is on streaks of 10-1 overall, 7-0 in conference and 5-0 versus winning teams. For Oklahoma State, the over is on stretches of 28-8 at home, 18-8 in November, 14-3 after a non-cover and 7-3 against winning teams. However, these teams have stayed under the total in the last two Bedlam matchups after going over in the previous four.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Maryland (7-4, 5-5 ATS) at (20) Boston College (8-3, 6-4 ATS)
The Eagles can play their way into the ACC championship game with a victory today as they host Maryland at Alumni Stadium in Boston.
With a victory, Boston College wins the Atlantic Division and earns a trip to the ACC title game, but the Eagles will have to do it with redshirt freshman QB Dominique Davis who is slated to start for injured Chris Crane, who had started every game this season but fractured his collar bone in the second quarter of B.C.’s 24-21 win over Wake Forest a week ago.
Davis stumbled against Wake last week, going 13-of-23 for 103 yards and he had two fumbles returned for TDs by the Demon Deacons. He did lead a nine-play, 70-yard drive in the final five minutes to make up for his two fumbles and keep the Eagles’ ACC title hopes alive.
Maryland comes in off a humiliating 37-3 home loss to Florida State, falling as a two-point ‘dog. The Terps have averaged just 11 points a game in their last three, losing two of those contests, and they produced just 252 yards of offense in the loss to the Seminoles.
Maryland QB Chris Turner threw for a career-high 337 yards and three TDs last year in the Terps 42-35 upset win over Boston College as seven-point home pups. In the last meeting at Boston College in 2006, the Eagles got a 38-16 win, easily covering as 7½-point favorites.
The Terps are on ATS skids of 1-4 on the road and 3-7 in November, but they are 5-0 ATS in their last five after a straight-up loss. Boston College is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight ACC contests and 2-6 ATS in its last eight after a straight-up win.
It’s been all unders lately for Maryland, including 6-1 overall, 5-0 in November, 8-0 on the road, 8-1 in ACC games, and 4-1 after a non-cover. For the Eagles, the over is on streaks of 5-2 overall, 9-3 when they play on turf and 4-1 in ACC contests. In this series, the over has been the play each of the last three years.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON COLLEGE
Virginia (5-6, 4-6 ATS) at Virginia Tech (7-4, 4-6 ATS)
The Cavaliers head to Blacksburg, Va., to take on the rival Hokies hoping to make themselves bowl eligible with a win and keep Virginia Tech out of the ACC championship game.
Virginia has lost three straight, including last week’s 13-3 home setback to Clemson as a 2½-point ‘dog. The Cavs are still looking for their sixth win to make themselves eligible for the postseason after getting win No. 5 back on Oct. 25. Virginia’s offense has been held below 20 points eight times this season, including scoring 10 or less in four outings. The Cavs are last in the ACC in scoring (16.3 points per game) and ninth in total offense (304.4 yards per game).
Virginia Tech got a 14-3 win over Duke a week ago, but failed to cover as a 14½-point home favorite. With a victory today, the Hokies can get to the conference title game despite having one of the worst offenses in college football, ranking 109th in total offense at 293 ypg. The defense, however, is eighth in the country, allowing 276.8 ypg and surrendering just two plays of 30 or more yards in its last three games.
Frank Beamer’s squad has dominated this rivalry, winning eight of the last nine (6-3 ATS), including a 33-31 road win last season, falling short as a 3½-point favorite. The Cavs haven’t won in Blacksburg since 1998, losing by at least 12 points in each of the last four trips to Lane Stadium (1-3 ATS).
Virginia is in ATS ruts of 7-16 on the road, 0-4 in November and 2-5 after a straight-up loss. The Hokies are just 1-4 ATS in their last five home games, but otherwise they are on positive ATS streaks of 26-10 in ACC games and 13-3 in November contests.
For the Cavs, the under is on streaks of 4-1 overall, 22-8-3 in ACC games, 11-4 in November, 21-8-3 after a non-cover and 7-2 after a straight-up loss. The under has dominated Hokies games as well, going 12-2 at home, 6-2 in conference games, 9-3 in November and 6-1 against teams with a losing record. Lastly, the under is 4-1 in the last five head-to-head meetings in Blacksburg.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Kansas (6-5, 5-5 ATS) at (12) Missouri (9-2, 5-5 ATS)
(at Kansas City, Mo.)
Kansas and Missouri meet for the 117th time when the nation’s second-oldest rivalry kicks off at Arrowhead Stadium with not much riding on the outcome other than bragging rights.
Missouri clinched the Big 12 North Division two weeks ago with a 52-20 win over Iowa State (covering as a 26-point favorite) and Kansas’ 35-7 loss to Texas (as 14-point home ‘dogs). The Tigers will be back in Arrowhead next weekend in the Big 12 title game hoping to spoil the BCS hopes of Oklahoma, Texas or Texas Tech.
The Tigers have an explosive offense that ranks fourth in the nation in scoring at 45.7 ppg and fifth in total yards (512.3 ypg). They have won four straight (2-2 ATS) after dropping two in a row (SU and ATS) to then-No. 17 Oklahoma State and No. 1 Texas. QB Chase Daniel is the headliner for the Tigers, completing 76.9 percent of his throws for 3,592 yards with 30 TDs and 11 INTs in his senior season.
The Jayhawks have lost four of their last five (2-3 ATS) and they were held to their lowest point total in three years in the 35-7 loss to Texas on Nov. 15. Kansas’ offense averages 32 points a game this season and QB Todd Reesing has been the catalyst, throwing for 3,198 yards, 24 TDs and 10 INTs. Reesing threw two picks against the Tigers last season but also had 349 yards and two TD passes.
Missouri leads the rivalry 54-53-9, and the Tigers have won the last two, including a 36-28 victory as a one-point ‘dog in 2007. The straight-up winner is 10-0 ATS in this rivalry dating back to 1998, and the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
Although it has failed to cover in three of its last four games, Kansas brings in several positive ATS streaks, including 20-7 overall, 14-6 in Big 12 games, 4-1 after a week off and 9-4 against teams with a winning record. Missouri is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven after a bye week and 0-4 in its last four after a spread-cover, but the Tigers are on positive ATS streaks of 17-8 overall, 11-5 against teams with a winning record and 7-1 in neutral-site games.
For Kansas, the over is on runs of 10-3 in November, 15-6 on grass, 4-1 in conference games and 5-2 after a bye week. The Tigers have stayed under the number in three of their last four overall, six of eight against teams with a winning record and five straight after a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(18) Georgia Tech (8-3, 7-2-1 ATS) at (13) Georgia (9-2, 3-7 ATS)
The Bulldogs will try to make it eight straight wins over in-state rival Georgia Tech when these two meet for the 103rd time, this year at Sanford Stadium in Athens, Ga.
Georgia was the preseason No. 1 team but lopsided losses to Alabama and Florida have knocked the Bulldogs out of the SEC title chase. Meanwhile, Georgia Tech waits for the outcome of the Virginia-Virginia Tech showdown to see if the Yellow Jackets will play in the ACC title game on Dec. 6 as Coastal Division champs. If Virginia Tech losses, Georgia Tech will compete for the league crown.
Georgia Tech pounded Miami, Fla., 41-23 back on Nov. 20, cashing as a three-point home favorite. The ‘Jackets’ triple-option offense produced 472 rushing yards against the Hurricanes, and they enter this game ranked fourth in the country in rushing offense (270.8 ypg). Jonathan Dwyer leads the team with 1,207 yards rushing (7 yards per carry) and 10 TDs.
Georgia has had trouble stopping teams, giving up 38 or more points in three straight games before beating Auburn 17-13 as a nine-point road favorite on Nov. 15. Despite that solid defensive effort, the Bulldogs have surrendered 23.8 points and 167.4 rushing yards per game in their last five contests.
The Bulldogs lead this rivalry 59-38-5, and they’ve taken 33 of the last 44 meetings. They are 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven clashes with Georgia Tech, including last year’s 31-17 win as a four-point road chalk. The last time these two met in Athens, Georgia scored 15 second-half points to edge the Yellow Jackets 15-12 and push as a three-point favorite. The straight-up winner is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 series clashes, and the road team is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five.
Georgia Tech is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine after a bye week, but they are on ATS runs of 6-2-1 overall, 5-1 on the road and 5-2-1 on grass. Georgia is on ATS slides of 1-6 overall, 0-4 at home and 1-4 against teams with a winning record, but the Bulldogs enjoy positive pointspread trends of 7-3-1 after a week off, 7-1-1 against ACC teams and 4-0 in non-conference games.
For the ‘Jackets, the under is on runs of 29-14-1 on grass, 5-1 after a bye week, 4-0 on the road and 6-0 after a straight-up win. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs have gone over the total in 10 of 14 home games against teams with a winning road record and five of their last seven November contests. Lastly, the under is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these rivals in Athens.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GEORGIA and UNDER
Auburn (5-6, 2-8 ATS) at (1) Alabama (11-0, 8-3 ATS)
Alabama will try to end a six-year losing streak to archrival Auburn and hold on to its No. 1 ranking when the schools meet in the 73rd Iron Bowl, this year in Tuscaloosa.
The Crimson Tide, who have already locked up the SEC West title and a berth in next week’s league title game against Florida, have been idle since Nov. 15, when they kept their perfect season alive with a 32-7 home rout of Mississippi State. Alabama easily cashed as a 20½-point home favorite for its fourth consecutive spread-cover. In the win, the Tide finished with a decided edge in total offense (364-167), the third time in the past four games that they outgained an opponent by more than 190 yards.
Auburn enters this showdown having lost five straight games to Division I-A opponents, including a 17-13 home loss to Georgia in its most recent contest on Nov. 18. On the bright side, the Tigers covered as a nine-point ‘dog, halting an 0-8 ATS drought. Tommy Tuberville’s team needs an upset win here to get bowl-eligible and avoid its first losing season since Tuberville arrived at Auburn in 1999.
The Tigers topped Alabama 17-10 a year ago, barely covering as a six-point home favorite. Although the Tigers have won the last six meetings (4-2 ATS), including four straight wins in Tuscaloosa, none of the contests has been decided by more than 10 points. Also, the visitor is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 Iron Bowls.
Both teams field strong defenses, with ‘Bama surrendering 12.5 points and 255.6 yards per game (75.1 rushing ypg), while Auburn yields 16.4 points and 309.2 yards per effort (130.3 rushing ypg). However, the Crimson Tide (31.7 points, 367 yards per game) have big advantage over the Tigers (18.9 points, 314.3 yards per game) on offense. In fact, Auburn has scored 14 points or less in half of its games this year, while Alabama has scored at least 24 points nine times, including the last five games in a row.
As part of its ongoing 1-8 ATS nosedive, Auburn is in pointspread slumps of 1-6 in SEC play, 0-4 this season on the road, 1-4 versus winning teams and 1-5 when playing on grass. However, the Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last six as a road underdog versus ranked opponents. Alabama is 5-2 in its last seven SEC games, but 4-10 ATS in its last 14 versus losing squads, 8-20-2 ATS in its last 30 in Tuscaloosa (3-3 this season), 0-4 ATS in its last four following a bye week and 5-17 ATS in its last 22 as a home favorite.
For Auburn, the under is on stretches of 9-3 overall, 4-1 on the road, 4-1 in SEC action, 4-1 in November, 15-7 after a SU defeat and 7-1 after an ATS setback. Alabama’s “under” tears include 5-1 overall (4-1 in the SEC), 4-0 at home, 5-1 on grass and 5-1 in November. Finally, the under is 7-2 in the last nine Iron Bowls overall, with the last four in Tuscaloosa all staying low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ALABAMA and UNDER
(2) Florida (10-1, 9-1 ATS) at (23) Florida State (8-3, 5-4 ATS)
Florida continues its march to the SEC championship game and a possible spot in the BCS title game when it battles in-state rival Florida State at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee.
The Gators stepped out of conference last week and obliterated The Citadel 70-19 in a non-lined game. Florida has won seven in a row since a stunning 31-30 home loss to Ole Miss on Sept. 27, going 6-0 ATS in lined games. Also, Florida is 4-0 SU and ATS on the road this year.
Florida State bounced back from a 10-point upset loss at home to Boston College with last Saturday’s dominating 37-3 win at Maryland as a two-point road favorite. The Seminoles outgained an opponent for the seventh time in the last eight games, finishing with a 332-252 edge in total offense versus the Terps. Bobby Bowden’s troops, who haven’t lost consecutive games all season, have alternated SU wins and losses in their last five games, going 3-1-1 ATS during this run.
Florida hammered the ‘Noles 45-12 last year as a 14-point favorite, the team’s fourth straight win in this rivalry, all of which have come by at least seven points. As far as this series goes, the host is 15-5 ATS in the last 20 (3-0 last three), the favorite is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 and the SU winner has covered in nine of the past 10 clashes. Lastly, Florida has come up short against the number in five of its last six trips to Tallahassee.
The Gators have scored at least 42 points in six straight games and they’re averaging 46.5 points and 444.6 total yards (229.8 rushing) per game. Defensively, Urban Meyer’s squad gives up only 12.8 points and 278.7 total yards per game. Meanwhile, Florida State is putting up 34.3 points and 377.2 total yards per contest (186.8 rushing) and surrendering 18.5 points and 272 yards per game.
The Gators have covered the spread in seven consecutive road games and are on additional ATS runs of 18-6 overall, 7-0 in November, 5-0 as a road favorite, 13-3 against winning teams, 10-3 in non-conference play and 16-5 on grass. Florida State is 5-2 ATS in its last seven at home, 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight non-league games, 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight games on grass and 2-0 ATS as a home ‘dog the last seven years. However, the Seminoles are 0-6 ATS the last six times they’re coming off a win of 20 points or more.
The last four Florida-Florida State battles have stayed under the total, and the last six meetings in Tallahassee have stayed low. Additionally, the under is on runs of 19-8 for Florida State in November, 5-1 for Florida State against the SEC and 6-0 for Florida against the ACC.
ATS ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA and UNDER
(17) Oregon (8-3, 5-6 ATS) at (19) Oregon State (8-3 SU and ATS)
The only thing standing the way of Oregon State and its first trip to the Rose Bowl since 1964 is hated rival Oregon, which has dropped the last two Civil War meetings in painful fashion.
The Beavers eked out a 38-31 double-overtime win at Oregon as a one-point road underdog last December, one year after beating the Ducks 30-28 at home but failing to cover as a 3½-point home favorite. The Beavers’ win last year ended a 10-0 stretch by the home team in this rivalry, yet the host is still on an 8-3 ATS roll in the Civil War, which is being played for the 112th time today.
Oregon State kept its Pac-10 title hopes alive with last Saturday’s miraculous 19-17 victory at Arizona as a 3½-point road underdog. The Beavers converted a long pass play with 30 seconds left on the clock to put Justin Kahut – who had previously missed a chip-shot extra point that would’ve ensured overtime – in position for a game-winning field goal. OSU outgained Arizona 390-297.
The Ducks, who have had two weeks to prep for this one, also are coming off a win against Arizona, having outscored the Wildcats 55-45 as a six-point home favorite two weeks ago. Oregon rolled up 504 yards in the win, but gave up 527. Mike Bellotti’s team has won two in a row and four of its last five, averaging 41.3 points in the victories. In fact, the Ducks have scored at least 31 points in all eight wins, but they’re averaging only 19.3 ppg in their three defeats.
Oregon State, which opened the season with a 36-28 Pac-10 road loss to Stanford, has since won seven straight league games (6-1 ATS) and is a half-game behind USC in the league standings. However, the Beavers, who haven’t been to the Rose Bowl since the 1964 season, control their own destiny in the conference race based on their stunning 27-21 home win over the then-No. 1 Trojans back on Sept. 5.
Oregon is averaging 39.8 points and 458.5 total yards per game (268.1 rushing ypg), compared with the Beavers’ per-game averages of 32.4 points and 414.3 total yards per outing (172 rushing ypg). However, Oregon State (21.4 ppg, 289.4 total ypg allowed) rates a significant defensive edge over the Ducks (27.1 points, 375.7 total ypg allowed).
The Ducks are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games on artificial turf, but otherwise are in ATS ruts of 0-2 as an underdog, 1-4 in November, 1-5 against winning teams, 1-4 after a spread-cover and 1-4 in their last four trips to Corvallis (0-5 SU). Conversely, Oregon State sports positive ATS runs of 15-4 overall, 39-19-1 at home, 13-4 on turf, 12-2 in Pac-10 play, 11-1 after a SU win, 5-0 in November, 7-2 in home finales (9-1 SU), 15-4 following a bye and 4-0 against teams with a winning record.
The over has hit in each of the six Civil War matchups and is 4-1 the last five times the teams have clashed at Oregon State. Additionally, the Ducks are riding over streaks of 6-2-2 overall, 5-1-1 on turf and 5-2-1 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OREGON STATE and OVER
South Carolina (7-4, 6-4 ATS) at Clemson (6-5, 3-6 ATS)
One year after watching Clemson nail a game-winning field goal as time expired to keep them from going to a bowl game, the Gamecocks get a chance to turn the tables on the Tigers as these teams clash in the annual battle for South Carolina bragging rights.
Clemson drilled a 35-yard field goal at the buzzer last year to get past South Carolina 23-21 and end the Gamecocks’ season on the spot. South Carolina did cover as a three-point home underdog, its second straight ATS win in this rivalry after Clemson had covered each of the previous five meetings. The Tigers are 5-1 SU in the last six battles between these schools.
The last three meetings in this rivalry have gone to the road team, and all three were decided by a total of nine points.
Clemson is finishing an otherwise disappointing season strong, taking three of their last four games both SU and ATS, including last week’s 13-3 win at Virginia as a 2½-point road favorite to keep its bowl hopes alive. The Tigers, who hammered Duke 31-7 two weeks ago, have held nine of its last 10 foes to three touchdowns or fewer. Also, their 3-1 ATS run comes after they failed to cover in their first five lined contests this season.
South Carolina has been licking its wounds the last two weeks after getting destroyed 56-6 at Florida as a 21-point road underdog on Nov. 15. The Gamecocks, who had held their first 10 opponents to 24 points or fewer, trailed 28-3 at halftime and got outgained by an eye-popping 519-173 margin, including 346-53 in rushing.
The Gamecocks are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games, while Clemson has been a disaster at the window recently, including 3-9 ATS overall, 1-6 ATS at home, 0-5 ATS against the SEC, 1-7 ATS against winning teams and 2-7 ATS on grass.
The over is 4-0-1 in South Carolina’s last five road games and 6-2 in its last eight in November. However, the Gamecocks are still on under steaks of 5-0 in non-conference play and 5-1 against the ACC. Meanwhile, it’s been all “unders” for Clemson, including 10-2 overall, 7-0 at home, 8-1 on grass, 4-0 in the SEC and 13-5 in non-conference play. Finally, three of the last four in this rivalry have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Notre Dame (6-5 SU and ATS) at (5) USC (9-1, 5-4-1 ATS)
Embattled Notre Dame coach Charlie Weis may walk the Irish sidelines for the final time today at the L.A. Coliseum as he guides the Irish against fifth-ranked USC, which is still holding out hope for a berth in the BCS championship game.
Notre Dame is coming off an embarrassing 24-23 home loss to two-win Syracuse, failing as a 19½-point favorite. Syracuse scored the winning touchdown with 42 seconds left, but the Irish had one last chance to tie it, only to see a 53-yard field-goal attempt fall short. Notre Dame has outgained each of its last eight opponents, but is only 2-4 (3-3 ATS) in its last six games.
USC, which took last week off, ran its winning streak to seven in a row with a 45-23 triumph at Stanford on Nov. 15, though the Trojans gave up an 18-yard touchdown pass on fourth down as time expired, costing them a spread-cover as a 24-point road favorite. USC busted open a game that was tied 17-17 at halftime, scoring 28 unanswered points before giving up the meaningless touchdown on the final play.
USC piled up a 462-165 total yardage edge in blanking the Irish 38-0 as a 16½-point road chalk last season, its largest margin of victory in 79 meetings with Notre Dame and its sixth consecutive win (5-1 ATS) in this series. The Trojans have scored between 34 and 45 points in all six victories, five of which have come by margins of 31, 31, 20 and 38 points. Additionally, in this storied rivalry, the favorite is on a 6-1 ATS run and Notre Dame is 1-5 ATS in its last six trips to Los Angeles.
The Trojans continue to field one of the stingiest defenses in the country, allowing just 8.3 points, 222.5 total yards, 132.3 passing yards and 90.2 rushing yards per game, figures that rank first, second, first and fifth in the nation. Offensively, USC puts up 38.4 points and 450.7 total yards per game, including 209.5 rushing ypg.
Notre Dame has put up at least 23 points in seven of its last eight games and is averaging 24.5 ppg and 367.9 total ypg. However, defensively, the Irish are surrendering nearly 20 points and 316.5 total yards per outing (139.7 rushing ypg).
The Irish are on positive ATS streaks of 6-2 on the road, 4-1 against the Pac-10 and 4-1 both off a SU and an ATS loss. USC is on pointspread runs of 30-14 at home, 12-5 against winning teams, 21-6 in non-conference play, 20-6 in November and 7-2 following a bye week.
The under is on streaks of 10-1 for Notre Dame on the road, 4-1 for Notre Dame against the Pac-10 and 4-1-1 for Notre Dame in November. Meanwhile, USC carries “under” runs of 20-8-1 overall, 15-3-1 at the L.A. Coliseum, 20-6-1 on grass and 4-0 against teams with a winning record. However, the over is 3-1 in the last four Irish-Trojans tussles in L.A.
ATS ADVANTAGE: USC and UNDER
(3) Oklahoma (10-1, 8-2 ATS) at (11) Oklahoma State (9-2, 8-2 ATS)
Oklahoma continues its quest for the Big 12 South title and a BCS championship game berth when it travels to Stillwater, Okla., for a meeting with Oklahoma State in the 103rd edition of the Bedlam Rivalry.
The Sooners made a big statement last week in destroying No. 2 Texas Tech 65-21 as a seven-point home favorite for their fifth consecutive victory and fourth straight spread-cover. Oklahoma took a 42-7 halftime lead into halftime and cruised from there, outgaining the Red Raiders 625-406 overall, including 299-45 on the ground, while the struggling Sooners defense stepped up and forced three turnovers and registered four sacks.
Oklahoma is 6-1 in conference play and enters tonight one-half game behind Texas (7-1) and tied with Texas Tech in the Big 12 North race. If the Sooners beat Oklahoma State and Texas Tech takes down Baylor today, there will be a three-way tie atop the division, and next week’s BCS standings will be used to determine the division winner and representative in next week’s Big 12 championship game.
The Cowboys are 2-2 SU and ATS since starting the season 7-0, with those two loses coming on the road at No. 1 Texas (28-24) and No. 3 Texas Tech (56-20). Oklahoma State rebounded from the Texas Tech debacle in its most recent game Nov. 15, besting Colorado 30-17, but coming up short as a 17-point road chalk. It was the Cowboys’ second straight non-cover after starting out 8-0 ATS.
The Sooners are riding a five-game winning streak (3-2 ATS) in the Bedlam Rivalry, including last year’s 49-17 rout as a 13½-point home favorite. In its most recent trip to Stillwater, Oklahoma prevailed 27-21 as a five-point road chalk in 2006. Despite that result, the home team is on an 8-1-1 ATS roll in this series, with OU going 1-4 ATS in its last five visits to Boone Pickens Stadium.
Oklahoma has scored at least 35 points in every game this season and at least 45 points in all five of its wins during its current winning streak, tallying 62, 66 and 65 the last three weeks alone. The Sooners lead the nation in scoring offense (52.6 points per game), rank third in total offense (556.6 yards per game) and third in passing offense (352.8 ypg). Bob Stoops’ squad also averages 203.8 rushing yards per game on the season, including 273.3 ypg (6.2 per carry) in the last three. Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford, a Heisman Trophy candidate, has thrown for 3,710 yards (68.2 percent completion rate) and 42 TDs against just six INTs.
Oklahoma State is putting up 41.6 points and 492.6 total yards per game, including 261 rushing yards per contest (5.7 yards per carry). Dual-threat QB Zac Robinson has completed 67.2 percent of his throws for 2,484 yards with 21 TDs and seven INTs, and he’s added 418 yards and six scores on the ground.
The Cowboys are perfect at home (6-0 SU, 5-0 ATS), scoring at least 55 points in five of the victories and averaging 570.5 yards per game while surrendering 20.8 points and 343.8 yards per contest (126.8 rushing ypg). Meanwhile, Oklahoma is 4-0 SU and ATS in true road games, putting up 57 points and 591.5 yards per game, and giving up 23.5 points and 358.2 yards (92.8 rushing ypg).
In addition to its ongoing 4-0 ATS run (all of which has come in Big 12 play), Oklahoma is on ATS streaks of 5-0 on the road since last year, 5-2 against winning teams, 6-1 after a spread-cover and 7-1 following a 20-plus-point victory. The Cowboys are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight November outings, but otherwise they’re on ATS tears of 6-0 at home since last season, 5-1 versus winning teams, 5-2 in Big 12 play, 8-3 after a non-cover and 7-0 on field turf.
For the Sooners, the over is on streaks of 10-1 overall, 7-0 in conference and 5-0 versus winning teams. For Oklahoma State, the over is on stretches of 28-8 at home, 18-8 in November, 14-3 after a non-cover and 7-3 against winning teams. However, these teams have stayed under the total in the last two Bedlam matchups after going over in the previous four.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Maryland (7-4, 5-5 ATS) at (20) Boston College (8-3, 6-4 ATS)
The Eagles can play their way into the ACC championship game with a victory today as they host Maryland at Alumni Stadium in Boston.
With a victory, Boston College wins the Atlantic Division and earns a trip to the ACC title game, but the Eagles will have to do it with redshirt freshman QB Dominique Davis who is slated to start for injured Chris Crane, who had started every game this season but fractured his collar bone in the second quarter of B.C.’s 24-21 win over Wake Forest a week ago.
Davis stumbled against Wake last week, going 13-of-23 for 103 yards and he had two fumbles returned for TDs by the Demon Deacons. He did lead a nine-play, 70-yard drive in the final five minutes to make up for his two fumbles and keep the Eagles’ ACC title hopes alive.
Maryland comes in off a humiliating 37-3 home loss to Florida State, falling as a two-point ‘dog. The Terps have averaged just 11 points a game in their last three, losing two of those contests, and they produced just 252 yards of offense in the loss to the Seminoles.
Maryland QB Chris Turner threw for a career-high 337 yards and three TDs last year in the Terps 42-35 upset win over Boston College as seven-point home pups. In the last meeting at Boston College in 2006, the Eagles got a 38-16 win, easily covering as 7½-point favorites.
The Terps are on ATS skids of 1-4 on the road and 3-7 in November, but they are 5-0 ATS in their last five after a straight-up loss. Boston College is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight ACC contests and 2-6 ATS in its last eight after a straight-up win.
It’s been all unders lately for Maryland, including 6-1 overall, 5-0 in November, 8-0 on the road, 8-1 in ACC games, and 4-1 after a non-cover. For the Eagles, the over is on streaks of 5-2 overall, 9-3 when they play on turf and 4-1 in ACC contests. In this series, the over has been the play each of the last three years.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON COLLEGE
Virginia (5-6, 4-6 ATS) at Virginia Tech (7-4, 4-6 ATS)
The Cavaliers head to Blacksburg, Va., to take on the rival Hokies hoping to make themselves bowl eligible with a win and keep Virginia Tech out of the ACC championship game.
Virginia has lost three straight, including last week’s 13-3 home setback to Clemson as a 2½-point ‘dog. The Cavs are still looking for their sixth win to make themselves eligible for the postseason after getting win No. 5 back on Oct. 25. Virginia’s offense has been held below 20 points eight times this season, including scoring 10 or less in four outings. The Cavs are last in the ACC in scoring (16.3 points per game) and ninth in total offense (304.4 yards per game).
Virginia Tech got a 14-3 win over Duke a week ago, but failed to cover as a 14½-point home favorite. With a victory today, the Hokies can get to the conference title game despite having one of the worst offenses in college football, ranking 109th in total offense at 293 ypg. The defense, however, is eighth in the country, allowing 276.8 ypg and surrendering just two plays of 30 or more yards in its last three games.
Frank Beamer’s squad has dominated this rivalry, winning eight of the last nine (6-3 ATS), including a 33-31 road win last season, falling short as a 3½-point favorite. The Cavs haven’t won in Blacksburg since 1998, losing by at least 12 points in each of the last four trips to Lane Stadium (1-3 ATS).
Virginia is in ATS ruts of 7-16 on the road, 0-4 in November and 2-5 after a straight-up loss. The Hokies are just 1-4 ATS in their last five home games, but otherwise they are on positive ATS streaks of 26-10 in ACC games and 13-3 in November contests.
For the Cavs, the under is on streaks of 4-1 overall, 22-8-3 in ACC games, 11-4 in November, 21-8-3 after a non-cover and 7-2 after a straight-up loss. The under has dominated Hokies games as well, going 12-2 at home, 6-2 in conference games, 9-3 in November and 6-1 against teams with a losing record. Lastly, the under is 4-1 in the last five head-to-head meetings in Blacksburg.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Kansas (6-5, 5-5 ATS) at (12) Missouri (9-2, 5-5 ATS)
(at Kansas City, Mo.)
Kansas and Missouri meet for the 117th time when the nation’s second-oldest rivalry kicks off at Arrowhead Stadium with not much riding on the outcome other than bragging rights.
Missouri clinched the Big 12 North Division two weeks ago with a 52-20 win over Iowa State (covering as a 26-point favorite) and Kansas’ 35-7 loss to Texas (as 14-point home ‘dogs). The Tigers will be back in Arrowhead next weekend in the Big 12 title game hoping to spoil the BCS hopes of Oklahoma, Texas or Texas Tech.
The Tigers have an explosive offense that ranks fourth in the nation in scoring at 45.7 ppg and fifth in total yards (512.3 ypg). They have won four straight (2-2 ATS) after dropping two in a row (SU and ATS) to then-No. 17 Oklahoma State and No. 1 Texas. QB Chase Daniel is the headliner for the Tigers, completing 76.9 percent of his throws for 3,592 yards with 30 TDs and 11 INTs in his senior season.
The Jayhawks have lost four of their last five (2-3 ATS) and they were held to their lowest point total in three years in the 35-7 loss to Texas on Nov. 15. Kansas’ offense averages 32 points a game this season and QB Todd Reesing has been the catalyst, throwing for 3,198 yards, 24 TDs and 10 INTs. Reesing threw two picks against the Tigers last season but also had 349 yards and two TD passes.
Missouri leads the rivalry 54-53-9, and the Tigers have won the last two, including a 36-28 victory as a one-point ‘dog in 2007. The straight-up winner is 10-0 ATS in this rivalry dating back to 1998, and the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
Although it has failed to cover in three of its last four games, Kansas brings in several positive ATS streaks, including 20-7 overall, 14-6 in Big 12 games, 4-1 after a week off and 9-4 against teams with a winning record. Missouri is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven after a bye week and 0-4 in its last four after a spread-cover, but the Tigers are on positive ATS streaks of 17-8 overall, 11-5 against teams with a winning record and 7-1 in neutral-site games.
For Kansas, the over is on runs of 10-3 in November, 15-6 on grass, 4-1 in conference games and 5-2 after a bye week. The Tigers have stayed under the number in three of their last four overall, six of eight against teams with a winning record and five straight after a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(18) Georgia Tech (8-3, 7-2-1 ATS) at (13) Georgia (9-2, 3-7 ATS)
The Bulldogs will try to make it eight straight wins over in-state rival Georgia Tech when these two meet for the 103rd time, this year at Sanford Stadium in Athens, Ga.
Georgia was the preseason No. 1 team but lopsided losses to Alabama and Florida have knocked the Bulldogs out of the SEC title chase. Meanwhile, Georgia Tech waits for the outcome of the Virginia-Virginia Tech showdown to see if the Yellow Jackets will play in the ACC title game on Dec. 6 as Coastal Division champs. If Virginia Tech losses, Georgia Tech will compete for the league crown.
Georgia Tech pounded Miami, Fla., 41-23 back on Nov. 20, cashing as a three-point home favorite. The ‘Jackets’ triple-option offense produced 472 rushing yards against the Hurricanes, and they enter this game ranked fourth in the country in rushing offense (270.8 ypg). Jonathan Dwyer leads the team with 1,207 yards rushing (7 yards per carry) and 10 TDs.
Georgia has had trouble stopping teams, giving up 38 or more points in three straight games before beating Auburn 17-13 as a nine-point road favorite on Nov. 15. Despite that solid defensive effort, the Bulldogs have surrendered 23.8 points and 167.4 rushing yards per game in their last five contests.
The Bulldogs lead this rivalry 59-38-5, and they’ve taken 33 of the last 44 meetings. They are 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven clashes with Georgia Tech, including last year’s 31-17 win as a four-point road chalk. The last time these two met in Athens, Georgia scored 15 second-half points to edge the Yellow Jackets 15-12 and push as a three-point favorite. The straight-up winner is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 series clashes, and the road team is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five.
Georgia Tech is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine after a bye week, but they are on ATS runs of 6-2-1 overall, 5-1 on the road and 5-2-1 on grass. Georgia is on ATS slides of 1-6 overall, 0-4 at home and 1-4 against teams with a winning record, but the Bulldogs enjoy positive pointspread trends of 7-3-1 after a week off, 7-1-1 against ACC teams and 4-0 in non-conference games.
For the ‘Jackets, the under is on runs of 29-14-1 on grass, 5-1 after a bye week, 4-0 on the road and 6-0 after a straight-up win. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs have gone over the total in 10 of 14 home games against teams with a winning road record and five of their last seven November contests. Lastly, the under is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these rivals in Athens.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GEORGIA and UNDER
Auburn (5-6, 2-8 ATS) at (1) Alabama (11-0, 8-3 ATS)
Alabama will try to end a six-year losing streak to archrival Auburn and hold on to its No. 1 ranking when the schools meet in the 73rd Iron Bowl, this year in Tuscaloosa.
The Crimson Tide, who have already locked up the SEC West title and a berth in next week’s league title game against Florida, have been idle since Nov. 15, when they kept their perfect season alive with a 32-7 home rout of Mississippi State. Alabama easily cashed as a 20½-point home favorite for its fourth consecutive spread-cover. In the win, the Tide finished with a decided edge in total offense (364-167), the third time in the past four games that they outgained an opponent by more than 190 yards.
Auburn enters this showdown having lost five straight games to Division I-A opponents, including a 17-13 home loss to Georgia in its most recent contest on Nov. 18. On the bright side, the Tigers covered as a nine-point ‘dog, halting an 0-8 ATS drought. Tommy Tuberville’s team needs an upset win here to get bowl-eligible and avoid its first losing season since Tuberville arrived at Auburn in 1999.
The Tigers topped Alabama 17-10 a year ago, barely covering as a six-point home favorite. Although the Tigers have won the last six meetings (4-2 ATS), including four straight wins in Tuscaloosa, none of the contests has been decided by more than 10 points. Also, the visitor is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 Iron Bowls.
Both teams field strong defenses, with ‘Bama surrendering 12.5 points and 255.6 yards per game (75.1 rushing ypg), while Auburn yields 16.4 points and 309.2 yards per effort (130.3 rushing ypg). However, the Crimson Tide (31.7 points, 367 yards per game) have big advantage over the Tigers (18.9 points, 314.3 yards per game) on offense. In fact, Auburn has scored 14 points or less in half of its games this year, while Alabama has scored at least 24 points nine times, including the last five games in a row.
As part of its ongoing 1-8 ATS nosedive, Auburn is in pointspread slumps of 1-6 in SEC play, 0-4 this season on the road, 1-4 versus winning teams and 1-5 when playing on grass. However, the Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last six as a road underdog versus ranked opponents. Alabama is 5-2 in its last seven SEC games, but 4-10 ATS in its last 14 versus losing squads, 8-20-2 ATS in its last 30 in Tuscaloosa (3-3 this season), 0-4 ATS in its last four following a bye week and 5-17 ATS in its last 22 as a home favorite.
For Auburn, the under is on stretches of 9-3 overall, 4-1 on the road, 4-1 in SEC action, 4-1 in November, 15-7 after a SU defeat and 7-1 after an ATS setback. Alabama’s “under” tears include 5-1 overall (4-1 in the SEC), 4-0 at home, 5-1 on grass and 5-1 in November. Finally, the under is 7-2 in the last nine Iron Bowls overall, with the last four in Tuscaloosa all staying low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ALABAMA and UNDER
(2) Florida (10-1, 9-1 ATS) at (23) Florida State (8-3, 5-4 ATS)
Florida continues its march to the SEC championship game and a possible spot in the BCS title game when it battles in-state rival Florida State at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee.
The Gators stepped out of conference last week and obliterated The Citadel 70-19 in a non-lined game. Florida has won seven in a row since a stunning 31-30 home loss to Ole Miss on Sept. 27, going 6-0 ATS in lined games. Also, Florida is 4-0 SU and ATS on the road this year.
Florida State bounced back from a 10-point upset loss at home to Boston College with last Saturday’s dominating 37-3 win at Maryland as a two-point road favorite. The Seminoles outgained an opponent for the seventh time in the last eight games, finishing with a 332-252 edge in total offense versus the Terps. Bobby Bowden’s troops, who haven’t lost consecutive games all season, have alternated SU wins and losses in their last five games, going 3-1-1 ATS during this run.
Florida hammered the ‘Noles 45-12 last year as a 14-point favorite, the team’s fourth straight win in this rivalry, all of which have come by at least seven points. As far as this series goes, the host is 15-5 ATS in the last 20 (3-0 last three), the favorite is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 and the SU winner has covered in nine of the past 10 clashes. Lastly, Florida has come up short against the number in five of its last six trips to Tallahassee.
The Gators have scored at least 42 points in six straight games and they’re averaging 46.5 points and 444.6 total yards (229.8 rushing) per game. Defensively, Urban Meyer’s squad gives up only 12.8 points and 278.7 total yards per game. Meanwhile, Florida State is putting up 34.3 points and 377.2 total yards per contest (186.8 rushing) and surrendering 18.5 points and 272 yards per game.
The Gators have covered the spread in seven consecutive road games and are on additional ATS runs of 18-6 overall, 7-0 in November, 5-0 as a road favorite, 13-3 against winning teams, 10-3 in non-conference play and 16-5 on grass. Florida State is 5-2 ATS in its last seven at home, 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight non-league games, 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight games on grass and 2-0 ATS as a home ‘dog the last seven years. However, the Seminoles are 0-6 ATS the last six times they’re coming off a win of 20 points or more.
The last four Florida-Florida State battles have stayed under the total, and the last six meetings in Tallahassee have stayed low. Additionally, the under is on runs of 19-8 for Florida State in November, 5-1 for Florida State against the SEC and 6-0 for Florida against the ACC.
ATS ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA and UNDER
(17) Oregon (8-3, 5-6 ATS) at (19) Oregon State (8-3 SU and ATS)
The only thing standing the way of Oregon State and its first trip to the Rose Bowl since 1964 is hated rival Oregon, which has dropped the last two Civil War meetings in painful fashion.
The Beavers eked out a 38-31 double-overtime win at Oregon as a one-point road underdog last December, one year after beating the Ducks 30-28 at home but failing to cover as a 3½-point home favorite. The Beavers’ win last year ended a 10-0 stretch by the home team in this rivalry, yet the host is still on an 8-3 ATS roll in the Civil War, which is being played for the 112th time today.
Oregon State kept its Pac-10 title hopes alive with last Saturday’s miraculous 19-17 victory at Arizona as a 3½-point road underdog. The Beavers converted a long pass play with 30 seconds left on the clock to put Justin Kahut – who had previously missed a chip-shot extra point that would’ve ensured overtime – in position for a game-winning field goal. OSU outgained Arizona 390-297.
The Ducks, who have had two weeks to prep for this one, also are coming off a win against Arizona, having outscored the Wildcats 55-45 as a six-point home favorite two weeks ago. Oregon rolled up 504 yards in the win, but gave up 527. Mike Bellotti’s team has won two in a row and four of its last five, averaging 41.3 points in the victories. In fact, the Ducks have scored at least 31 points in all eight wins, but they’re averaging only 19.3 ppg in their three defeats.
Oregon State, which opened the season with a 36-28 Pac-10 road loss to Stanford, has since won seven straight league games (6-1 ATS) and is a half-game behind USC in the league standings. However, the Beavers, who haven’t been to the Rose Bowl since the 1964 season, control their own destiny in the conference race based on their stunning 27-21 home win over the then-No. 1 Trojans back on Sept. 5.
Oregon is averaging 39.8 points and 458.5 total yards per game (268.1 rushing ypg), compared with the Beavers’ per-game averages of 32.4 points and 414.3 total yards per outing (172 rushing ypg). However, Oregon State (21.4 ppg, 289.4 total ypg allowed) rates a significant defensive edge over the Ducks (27.1 points, 375.7 total ypg allowed).
The Ducks are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games on artificial turf, but otherwise are in ATS ruts of 0-2 as an underdog, 1-4 in November, 1-5 against winning teams, 1-4 after a spread-cover and 1-4 in their last four trips to Corvallis (0-5 SU). Conversely, Oregon State sports positive ATS runs of 15-4 overall, 39-19-1 at home, 13-4 on turf, 12-2 in Pac-10 play, 11-1 after a SU win, 5-0 in November, 7-2 in home finales (9-1 SU), 15-4 following a bye and 4-0 against teams with a winning record.
The over has hit in each of the six Civil War matchups and is 4-1 the last five times the teams have clashed at Oregon State. Additionally, the Ducks are riding over streaks of 6-2-2 overall, 5-1-1 on turf and 5-2-1 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OREGON STATE and OVER
South Carolina (7-4, 6-4 ATS) at Clemson (6-5, 3-6 ATS)
One year after watching Clemson nail a game-winning field goal as time expired to keep them from going to a bowl game, the Gamecocks get a chance to turn the tables on the Tigers as these teams clash in the annual battle for South Carolina bragging rights.
Clemson drilled a 35-yard field goal at the buzzer last year to get past South Carolina 23-21 and end the Gamecocks’ season on the spot. South Carolina did cover as a three-point home underdog, its second straight ATS win in this rivalry after Clemson had covered each of the previous five meetings. The Tigers are 5-1 SU in the last six battles between these schools.
The last three meetings in this rivalry have gone to the road team, and all three were decided by a total of nine points.
Clemson is finishing an otherwise disappointing season strong, taking three of their last four games both SU and ATS, including last week’s 13-3 win at Virginia as a 2½-point road favorite to keep its bowl hopes alive. The Tigers, who hammered Duke 31-7 two weeks ago, have held nine of its last 10 foes to three touchdowns or fewer. Also, their 3-1 ATS run comes after they failed to cover in their first five lined contests this season.
South Carolina has been licking its wounds the last two weeks after getting destroyed 56-6 at Florida as a 21-point road underdog on Nov. 15. The Gamecocks, who had held their first 10 opponents to 24 points or fewer, trailed 28-3 at halftime and got outgained by an eye-popping 519-173 margin, including 346-53 in rushing.
The Gamecocks are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games, while Clemson has been a disaster at the window recently, including 3-9 ATS overall, 1-6 ATS at home, 0-5 ATS against the SEC, 1-7 ATS against winning teams and 2-7 ATS on grass.
The over is 4-0-1 in South Carolina’s last five road games and 6-2 in its last eight in November. However, the Gamecocks are still on under steaks of 5-0 in non-conference play and 5-1 against the ACC. Meanwhile, it’s been all “unders” for Clemson, including 10-2 overall, 7-0 at home, 8-1 on grass, 4-0 in the SEC and 13-5 in non-conference play. Finally, three of the last four in this rivalry have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Notre Dame (6-5 SU and ATS) at (5) USC (9-1, 5-4-1 ATS)
Embattled Notre Dame coach Charlie Weis may walk the Irish sidelines for the final time today at the L.A. Coliseum as he guides the Irish against fifth-ranked USC, which is still holding out hope for a berth in the BCS championship game.
Notre Dame is coming off an embarrassing 24-23 home loss to two-win Syracuse, failing as a 19½-point favorite. Syracuse scored the winning touchdown with 42 seconds left, but the Irish had one last chance to tie it, only to see a 53-yard field-goal attempt fall short. Notre Dame has outgained each of its last eight opponents, but is only 2-4 (3-3 ATS) in its last six games.
USC, which took last week off, ran its winning streak to seven in a row with a 45-23 triumph at Stanford on Nov. 15, though the Trojans gave up an 18-yard touchdown pass on fourth down as time expired, costing them a spread-cover as a 24-point road favorite. USC busted open a game that was tied 17-17 at halftime, scoring 28 unanswered points before giving up the meaningless touchdown on the final play.
USC piled up a 462-165 total yardage edge in blanking the Irish 38-0 as a 16½-point road chalk last season, its largest margin of victory in 79 meetings with Notre Dame and its sixth consecutive win (5-1 ATS) in this series. The Trojans have scored between 34 and 45 points in all six victories, five of which have come by margins of 31, 31, 20 and 38 points. Additionally, in this storied rivalry, the favorite is on a 6-1 ATS run and Notre Dame is 1-5 ATS in its last six trips to Los Angeles.
The Trojans continue to field one of the stingiest defenses in the country, allowing just 8.3 points, 222.5 total yards, 132.3 passing yards and 90.2 rushing yards per game, figures that rank first, second, first and fifth in the nation. Offensively, USC puts up 38.4 points and 450.7 total yards per game, including 209.5 rushing ypg.
Notre Dame has put up at least 23 points in seven of its last eight games and is averaging 24.5 ppg and 367.9 total ypg. However, defensively, the Irish are surrendering nearly 20 points and 316.5 total yards per outing (139.7 rushing ypg).
The Irish are on positive ATS streaks of 6-2 on the road, 4-1 against the Pac-10 and 4-1 both off a SU and an ATS loss. USC is on pointspread runs of 30-14 at home, 12-5 against winning teams, 21-6 in non-conference play, 20-6 in November and 7-2 following a bye week.
The under is on streaks of 10-1 for Notre Dame on the road, 4-1 for Notre Dame against the Pac-10 and 4-1-1 for Notre Dame in November. Meanwhile, USC carries “under” runs of 20-8-1 overall, 15-3-1 at the L.A. Coliseum, 20-6-1 on grass and 4-0 against teams with a winning record. However, the over is 3-1 in the last four Irish-Trojans tussles in L.A.
ATS ADVANTAGE: USC and UNDER
Pointwise Newsletter B-Ball plays
NBA Key Releases (rated 1-4, with 1 being the top)
1--Utah over New Jersey 98-82
Best of the Rest--Atlanta, Memphis
NCAA Best Bets
Depaul over Indiana State 88-68
Buffalo (+) over Temple 66-61
Fla. Int'l (+) over UCLA 76-83
Stanford over Colorado 85-61
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NBA Key Releases (rated 1-4, with 1 being the top)
1--Utah over New Jersey 98-82
Best of the Rest--Atlanta, Memphis
NCAA Best Bets
Depaul over Indiana State 88-68
Buffalo (+) over Temple 66-61
Fla. Int'l (+) over UCLA 76-83
Stanford over Colorado 85-61
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