Jeff Benton Plays ,
Saturday's winners ...
20 Dime: GEORGIA TECH (plus the points vs. Georgia)
10 Dime: SOUTH CAROLINA (vs. Clemson)
10 Dime: MISSOURI (minus the points vs. Kansas)
Georgia Tech
Ten days ago, Georgia Tech gashed one of the best defenses in the nation (Miami, Fla.) for 472 rushing yards in a 41-23 rout. Today, the Yellow Jackets face a Georgia defense that has given up 167.4 rushing yards (not to mention nearly 24 points) in its last five games, including 33.3 points and 178.3 rushing yards in its last three … and Georgia Tech is catching well over a touchdown? Against its biggest in-state rival? This makes no sense to me at all!
It makes even less sense when you consider that Georgia Tech is 8-3 SU and 7-2-1 ATS on the season, with only one of its defeats (28-7 at North Carolina) coming by more than a touchdown. Granted, the ACC is down this year compared with the SEC, but with the way the Yellow Jackets run the football (270 rush yards per game) and play defense (16.7 points, 296.7 total yards per game allowed), there’s no doubt in my mind they can cover this pointspread … if not win outright.
Georgia, which barely beat lowly Auburn in its last game two weeks ago (17-13 as a nine-point road favorite), has been dreadful against the spread, going 3-7-1 ATS on the season and 1-6 ATS in its last seven, including three straight non-covers at home. Also, the Bulldogs’ last two wins were each four-point victories.
The road team is 8-1-1 ATS the last 10 years in this rivalry, and the one push came in the Yellow Jackets’ last trip to Georgia when they blew a 12-0 first-half lead and lost 15-12 as a three-point underdog.
Throw in the fact that first-year Georgia Tech coach Paul Johnson is 13-3 ATS in his last 16 games as an underdog going back to 2003 and his days at Navy, and I’ll gladly take the generous points with confidence!
South Carolina
Think the Ol’ Ball Coach and his Gamecocks are still fuming over that debacle at Florida two weeks ago? Think they’d like to take some frustrations out on archrival Clemson, which has struggled to score points pretty much all season and which knocked South Carolina out of a bowl last year? The answers to those questions are “yes” and “yes”!
After holding its first 10 opponents to 24 points or less and an average of just 15.6 points per game, South Carolina became the latest defense to get run over by the Gators in an ugly 56-6 loss. This week, though, the Gamecocks’ solid defense catches a break, as Clemson has scored 17 points or fewer in four of its last seven games – and that’s in the weak ACC. Last week against Virginia, the Tigers managed just 13 points, and they also scored just 17 against both Maryland and Georgia Tech and only seven against Wake Forest. And if you discount a 27-point effort at Florida State (Clemson got a garbage touchdown late), the only Division I-A teams the Tigers put points up against was Duke (31), North Carolina State (27) and Boston College (27).
True, Clemson’s defense (21 points or less allowed in nine of 11 games) has made up for the offense’s deficiencies. However, prior to the Florida disaster, Steve Spurrier’s offense had been clicking in putting up 23 points or more in six of its previous seven games (all six were victories). Also, the Tigers have just four wins against Division I competition, but two of those opponents (N.C. State and Duke) aren’t exactly powerhouses. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks are 7-4 on the season with three of the losses – including a 14-7 defeat to Georgia – were by exactly seven points, meaning South Carolina has been in every game this year except for the last one.
Finally, as if they needed added motivation against a hated rival, the Gamecocks have some. Last year, Clemson kicked a game-winning field goal as time expired to steal a 23-21 win on South Carolina’s home field to knock the ‘Cocks out of a bowl. Well, today, it’s the Tigers who need a win to go bowling, and you know South Carolina would love nothing more than to return the favor. They’ll do it as the road team wins for the fourth straight year in this rivalry.
Missouri
You could argue that there’s no motivation for Missouri to cover this massive spread, seeing as the Tigers have already clinched the Big 12 North title and a berth in next week’s much-anticipated conference championship game. Except for the fact that they’re playing their biggest rival in Kansas. For that reason alone, there’s little doubt that given the opportunity to pour it on, Missouri will do just that.
Well, considering the poor state of Kansas’ defense, I see no reason why the Tigers won’t find the end zone early and often. The Jayhawks, who have lost four of their last five games, have given up 33 points or more six times in their last nine contests. And against the four prolific offenses that Kansas has faced – Texas, Nebraska, Texas Tech and Oklahoma – it has given up a total of 178 points, or 44.5 points per contest! Obviously, with Chase Daniel running the show, Missouri’s offense definitely falls under the “prolific” category. The Tigers are averaging 45.7 points and 512.3 total yards, and they’ve scored at least 31 points in all but one game this year.
Additionally, during its current four-game winning streak, Missouri has outscored its opponents 182-72, or an average margin of victory of 28 points per game, and the Tigers have outgained those four opponents by a total of 532 yards!
Yes, Kansas can score points, too, but against the three best teams they’ve faced this year (Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma), the Jayhawks averaged just 19.7 points. And Missouri’s defense comes into this one having allowed an average of 18 ppg during its four-game winning streak and the Tigers have held six of their last 10 opponents to 21 points or fewer. Missouri has won and covered the last two meetings against Kansas, and with this game being played on a neutral field in Kansas City, it’s interesting to note that the Tigers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 away from home. Lay the big price, as Missouri rolls by at least three TDs.
Saturday's winners ...
20 Dime: GEORGIA TECH (plus the points vs. Georgia)
10 Dime: SOUTH CAROLINA (vs. Clemson)
10 Dime: MISSOURI (minus the points vs. Kansas)
Georgia Tech
Ten days ago, Georgia Tech gashed one of the best defenses in the nation (Miami, Fla.) for 472 rushing yards in a 41-23 rout. Today, the Yellow Jackets face a Georgia defense that has given up 167.4 rushing yards (not to mention nearly 24 points) in its last five games, including 33.3 points and 178.3 rushing yards in its last three … and Georgia Tech is catching well over a touchdown? Against its biggest in-state rival? This makes no sense to me at all!
It makes even less sense when you consider that Georgia Tech is 8-3 SU and 7-2-1 ATS on the season, with only one of its defeats (28-7 at North Carolina) coming by more than a touchdown. Granted, the ACC is down this year compared with the SEC, but with the way the Yellow Jackets run the football (270 rush yards per game) and play defense (16.7 points, 296.7 total yards per game allowed), there’s no doubt in my mind they can cover this pointspread … if not win outright.
Georgia, which barely beat lowly Auburn in its last game two weeks ago (17-13 as a nine-point road favorite), has been dreadful against the spread, going 3-7-1 ATS on the season and 1-6 ATS in its last seven, including three straight non-covers at home. Also, the Bulldogs’ last two wins were each four-point victories.
The road team is 8-1-1 ATS the last 10 years in this rivalry, and the one push came in the Yellow Jackets’ last trip to Georgia when they blew a 12-0 first-half lead and lost 15-12 as a three-point underdog.
Throw in the fact that first-year Georgia Tech coach Paul Johnson is 13-3 ATS in his last 16 games as an underdog going back to 2003 and his days at Navy, and I’ll gladly take the generous points with confidence!
South Carolina
Think the Ol’ Ball Coach and his Gamecocks are still fuming over that debacle at Florida two weeks ago? Think they’d like to take some frustrations out on archrival Clemson, which has struggled to score points pretty much all season and which knocked South Carolina out of a bowl last year? The answers to those questions are “yes” and “yes”!
After holding its first 10 opponents to 24 points or less and an average of just 15.6 points per game, South Carolina became the latest defense to get run over by the Gators in an ugly 56-6 loss. This week, though, the Gamecocks’ solid defense catches a break, as Clemson has scored 17 points or fewer in four of its last seven games – and that’s in the weak ACC. Last week against Virginia, the Tigers managed just 13 points, and they also scored just 17 against both Maryland and Georgia Tech and only seven against Wake Forest. And if you discount a 27-point effort at Florida State (Clemson got a garbage touchdown late), the only Division I-A teams the Tigers put points up against was Duke (31), North Carolina State (27) and Boston College (27).
True, Clemson’s defense (21 points or less allowed in nine of 11 games) has made up for the offense’s deficiencies. However, prior to the Florida disaster, Steve Spurrier’s offense had been clicking in putting up 23 points or more in six of its previous seven games (all six were victories). Also, the Tigers have just four wins against Division I competition, but two of those opponents (N.C. State and Duke) aren’t exactly powerhouses. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks are 7-4 on the season with three of the losses – including a 14-7 defeat to Georgia – were by exactly seven points, meaning South Carolina has been in every game this year except for the last one.
Finally, as if they needed added motivation against a hated rival, the Gamecocks have some. Last year, Clemson kicked a game-winning field goal as time expired to steal a 23-21 win on South Carolina’s home field to knock the ‘Cocks out of a bowl. Well, today, it’s the Tigers who need a win to go bowling, and you know South Carolina would love nothing more than to return the favor. They’ll do it as the road team wins for the fourth straight year in this rivalry.
Missouri
You could argue that there’s no motivation for Missouri to cover this massive spread, seeing as the Tigers have already clinched the Big 12 North title and a berth in next week’s much-anticipated conference championship game. Except for the fact that they’re playing their biggest rival in Kansas. For that reason alone, there’s little doubt that given the opportunity to pour it on, Missouri will do just that.
Well, considering the poor state of Kansas’ defense, I see no reason why the Tigers won’t find the end zone early and often. The Jayhawks, who have lost four of their last five games, have given up 33 points or more six times in their last nine contests. And against the four prolific offenses that Kansas has faced – Texas, Nebraska, Texas Tech and Oklahoma – it has given up a total of 178 points, or 44.5 points per contest! Obviously, with Chase Daniel running the show, Missouri’s offense definitely falls under the “prolific” category. The Tigers are averaging 45.7 points and 512.3 total yards, and they’ve scored at least 31 points in all but one game this year.
Additionally, during its current four-game winning streak, Missouri has outscored its opponents 182-72, or an average margin of victory of 28 points per game, and the Tigers have outgained those four opponents by a total of 532 yards!
Yes, Kansas can score points, too, but against the three best teams they’ve faced this year (Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma), the Jayhawks averaged just 19.7 points. And Missouri’s defense comes into this one having allowed an average of 18 ppg during its four-game winning streak and the Tigers have held six of their last 10 opponents to 21 points or fewer. Missouri has won and covered the last two meetings against Kansas, and with this game being played on a neutral field in Kansas City, it’s interesting to note that the Tigers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 away from home. Lay the big price, as Missouri rolls by at least three TDs.
JEFFERSONSPORTS 2-1 yest
UPDATED 11/28
23-8 in College Hoops (73%)
39-17 in the NFL last 56 picks (70%)
74-50 in NFL and college football combined (60%)
10-4 in NHL HOCKEY 1 unit plays (71%)
All sports run now 35-16 last 48 plays (69%)
Free picks 1-0
NCAA FB FOR SAT
MARYLAND+7 -120
I like this game. Maryland is a really good team off of bad performances. They should bounce back well here. Also we have a very avg. Boston College offense that must now start their freshman backup QB since Crane is out. We also have some matchups that we really like. Too many points. We have some good psychological edges, good matchups, against public. --Take Maryland.
CINCINATTI-21 -120 (from early yesterday). Play smaller if you can't buy to 21. Should be a rout though.
UPDATED 11/28
23-8 in College Hoops (73%)
39-17 in the NFL last 56 picks (70%)
74-50 in NFL and college football combined (60%)
10-4 in NHL HOCKEY 1 unit plays (71%)
All sports run now 35-16 last 48 plays (69%)
Free picks 1-0
NCAA FB FOR SAT
MARYLAND+7 -120
I like this game. Maryland is a really good team off of bad performances. They should bounce back well here. Also we have a very avg. Boston College offense that must now start their freshman backup QB since Crane is out. We also have some matchups that we really like. Too many points. We have some good psychological edges, good matchups, against public. --Take Maryland.
CINCINATTI-21 -120 (from early yesterday). Play smaller if you can't buy to 21. Should be a rout though.
JOHN RYAN
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Louisiana Tech - AiS shows an 82% probability La-Tech will lose this game by 4 or fewer points. Two forces oppose one another in this game. Nevada knows how to stop the run and La-tech knows how to run the ball. Nevada does not have a good secondary at all and many teams simply designed their attack to go after that weakness. Also, there were many games Nevada forced the opposition to abandon the run simply because Nevada had achieved a big lead. The same can be said of La-tech games. They know how to defend the run, but they don't have as weak a secondary as Nevada. Based on my research, I just don't see how Nevada will contain the rushing attack and this running game will set-up strong play action passing opportunities in the second half. Supporting this graded play is a strong money line system that has produced a record of 38-40 for just 49%, but has made 51 units in profits since 1992. Play against road favorites versus the money line that are off a home loss against opponent off a road win. The average play has been a dog of +238. Again, this is like playing Black Jack and being paid $2.38 for every winning $1.00 hand played with the game odds still set at roughly 50%. That will NEVER happen at the casino, but now you have a system that requires a little work, but you will be rewarded well for that work. Take La-Tech and look for the SU win.
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Louisiana Tech - AiS shows an 82% probability La-Tech will lose this game by 4 or fewer points. Two forces oppose one another in this game. Nevada knows how to stop the run and La-tech knows how to run the ball. Nevada does not have a good secondary at all and many teams simply designed their attack to go after that weakness. Also, there were many games Nevada forced the opposition to abandon the run simply because Nevada had achieved a big lead. The same can be said of La-tech games. They know how to defend the run, but they don't have as weak a secondary as Nevada. Based on my research, I just don't see how Nevada will contain the rushing attack and this running game will set-up strong play action passing opportunities in the second half. Supporting this graded play is a strong money line system that has produced a record of 38-40 for just 49%, but has made 51 units in profits since 1992. Play against road favorites versus the money line that are off a home loss against opponent off a road win. The average play has been a dog of +238. Again, this is like playing Black Jack and being paid $2.38 for every winning $1.00 hand played with the game odds still set at roughly 50%. That will NEVER happen at the casino, but now you have a system that requires a little work, but you will be rewarded well for that work. Take La-Tech and look for the SU win.
DOC
5 Unit Play. #79 Take Auburn Tigers over Alabama Crimson Tide (Saturday 3:30 pm CBS) Bama 24, Auburn 17.
4 Unit Play. #71 Take South Carolina Gamecocks over Clemson Tigers (Saturday 12:00 pm ESPN 2) USC 24, Clemson 17
4 Unit Play. #73 Take Oklahoma Sooners over Oklahoma State Cowboys (Saturday 8:00 pm ESPN)OU 48, OK St 24.
4 Unit Play. #65 Take Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets over Georgia Bulldogs (Saturday 12:00 pm CBS) Ga Tech 27, Georgia 23.
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5 Unit Play. #79 Take Auburn Tigers over Alabama Crimson Tide (Saturday 3:30 pm CBS) Bama 24, Auburn 17.
4 Unit Play. #71 Take South Carolina Gamecocks over Clemson Tigers (Saturday 12:00 pm ESPN 2) USC 24, Clemson 17
4 Unit Play. #73 Take Oklahoma Sooners over Oklahoma State Cowboys (Saturday 8:00 pm ESPN)OU 48, OK St 24.
4 Unit Play. #65 Take Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets over Georgia Bulldogs (Saturday 12:00 pm CBS) Ga Tech 27, Georgia 23.
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NEWSLETTER RECAP:
NCAA FOOTBALL
HOT
CONFIDENTIAL KICK OFF 11* (7-5-1) ..... ALABAMA
ED CASH (SPORTS MEMO) (8-4) .... KENTUCKY
HQ REPORT ATS (8-4) .... MISSOURI
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK 4* (9-4) . S. CAROLINA
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK 5* (9-5) .....
NORTHCOAST POWER PLAYS 4* (94-71-1) ... V. TECH...MEMPHIS...MISSOURI..FLORIDA..TENN..C.FLORID A..
THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA (32-25) .... NC ST ....VANDY...S.MISS....G TECH...ARK ST
THE RED SHEET 89* (16-9-1) ... MEMPHIS....ALABAMA
SPORTS REPORTER SUPER BEST BET (5-2) ...
WINNING POINTS BEST BET (16-11)....MEMPHIS
COLD
CONFIDENTIAL KICK OFF 10* (17-23-1) ..OREGON ST
HQ REPORT TOTAL RECALL (3-9) ... RICE versus HOUSTON PLAY OVER
KEVIN O'NEILL (THE MAXX) (16-19-1) ... NC ST...G TECH
LOGICAL APPROACH SEL OF WEEK (5-10) ..
LOGICAL APPROACH FEATURED SEL (12-15) ...RICE... G TECH
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK UPSET (4-7) .. OREGON
MARTY OTTO (SPORTS MEMO) (3-7) ...
MATTY BAIUNGO (THE MAXX) (9-13) ... OKL ST....S CAR
NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP 4* (4-8) .. MISSOURI
POINTWISE 2* (4-10) .. TEX TECH
SPORTS REPORTER BEST BET (24-30-1) .NEVADA...SOUTH CAROLINA..
THE REST
BRENT CROW (SPORTS MEMO) (7-4) ... RICE
DAVE FOBARE (THE MAXX) (6-6) ... A & M ( L)
DONNIE BLACK (SPORTS MEMO) (5-6) ... OREGON
ERIK SCHEPONIK (THE MAXX) (7-6) ....
ERIN RYNNING (SPORTS MEMO) (3-4).... KANSAS
FAIRWAY JAY (SPORTS MEMO) (4-3) ....
HQ REPORT 5* (6-5-1) .... TEXAS TECH
HQ REPORT UNDERDOG PLAY OF WEEK (7-6) ... OK ST
JARED KLEIN (SPORTS MEMO) (4-5) ...
NELLY'S SPORTSLINE 4* (4-7) ..
NELLY'S SPORTSLINE 5* (4-5) ... NEBRASKA
NELLY'S SPORTSLINE 6* (1-0)...
NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP DOG (6-6) ...
POINTWISE 1* (12-14)....... FLORIDA.....MEMPHIS
ROB VENO (SPORTS MEMO) (3-4)... S. MISS
SPORTS INSIGHT MARKETWATCH (17-20-1) ... COLORADO ( W ) ....LOUSIANA TECH ....MARYLAND
SPORTS REPORTER RECOMMENDED (22-18-1) ... USC....KENTUCKY
STATFOX PLATINUM SHEET (28-29-2) ...
TEDDY COVERS (SPORTS MEMO) (3-4)...
THE GOLD SHEET (28-26) ..OKLAHOMA.... G TECH
THE RED SHEET 90* (1-0)...
TIM TRUSHEL (SPORTS MEMO) (3-3)
VEGAS EXPERTS THE EDGE 3* (9-10)... OKLAHOMA...FLORIDA
WINNING POINTS PREFERRED (29-26-1)..TEX TECH...S.CAR
NCAA FOOTBALL
HOT
CONFIDENTIAL KICK OFF 11* (7-5-1) ..... ALABAMA
ED CASH (SPORTS MEMO) (8-4) .... KENTUCKY
HQ REPORT ATS (8-4) .... MISSOURI
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK 4* (9-4) . S. CAROLINA
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK 5* (9-5) .....
NORTHCOAST POWER PLAYS 4* (94-71-1) ... V. TECH...MEMPHIS...MISSOURI..FLORIDA..TENN..C.FLORID A..
THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA (32-25) .... NC ST ....VANDY...S.MISS....G TECH...ARK ST
THE RED SHEET 89* (16-9-1) ... MEMPHIS....ALABAMA
SPORTS REPORTER SUPER BEST BET (5-2) ...
WINNING POINTS BEST BET (16-11)....MEMPHIS
COLD
CONFIDENTIAL KICK OFF 10* (17-23-1) ..OREGON ST
HQ REPORT TOTAL RECALL (3-9) ... RICE versus HOUSTON PLAY OVER
KEVIN O'NEILL (THE MAXX) (16-19-1) ... NC ST...G TECH
LOGICAL APPROACH SEL OF WEEK (5-10) ..
LOGICAL APPROACH FEATURED SEL (12-15) ...RICE... G TECH
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK UPSET (4-7) .. OREGON
MARTY OTTO (SPORTS MEMO) (3-7) ...
MATTY BAIUNGO (THE MAXX) (9-13) ... OKL ST....S CAR
NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP 4* (4-8) .. MISSOURI
POINTWISE 2* (4-10) .. TEX TECH
SPORTS REPORTER BEST BET (24-30-1) .NEVADA...SOUTH CAROLINA..
THE REST
BRENT CROW (SPORTS MEMO) (7-4) ... RICE
DAVE FOBARE (THE MAXX) (6-6) ... A & M ( L)
DONNIE BLACK (SPORTS MEMO) (5-6) ... OREGON
ERIK SCHEPONIK (THE MAXX) (7-6) ....
ERIN RYNNING (SPORTS MEMO) (3-4).... KANSAS
FAIRWAY JAY (SPORTS MEMO) (4-3) ....
HQ REPORT 5* (6-5-1) .... TEXAS TECH
HQ REPORT UNDERDOG PLAY OF WEEK (7-6) ... OK ST
JARED KLEIN (SPORTS MEMO) (4-5) ...
NELLY'S SPORTSLINE 4* (4-7) ..
NELLY'S SPORTSLINE 5* (4-5) ... NEBRASKA
NELLY'S SPORTSLINE 6* (1-0)...
NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP DOG (6-6) ...
POINTWISE 1* (12-14)....... FLORIDA.....MEMPHIS
ROB VENO (SPORTS MEMO) (3-4)... S. MISS
SPORTS INSIGHT MARKETWATCH (17-20-1) ... COLORADO ( W ) ....LOUSIANA TECH ....MARYLAND
SPORTS REPORTER RECOMMENDED (22-18-1) ... USC....KENTUCKY
STATFOX PLATINUM SHEET (28-29-2) ...
TEDDY COVERS (SPORTS MEMO) (3-4)...
THE GOLD SHEET (28-26) ..OKLAHOMA.... G TECH
THE RED SHEET 90* (1-0)...
TIM TRUSHEL (SPORTS MEMO) (3-3)
VEGAS EXPERTS THE EDGE 3* (9-10)... OKLAHOMA...FLORIDA
WINNING POINTS PREFERRED (29-26-1)..TEX TECH...S.CAR
Cajun-Sports
2 STAR SELECTION
TEXAS TECH -21 1/2 over Baylor
Fresh off a humiliating defeat, the 7th-ranked Red Raiders get right back on the horse Saturday afternoon as they host the Bears in Big 12 Conference play.
This will be it for Baylor, which owns a 4-7 record overall. The Bears carried a four- game skid into a November 15th clash with Texas A&M, but got the 41-21 victory.
Texas Tech controlled its own fate for a trip to the Big 12 title game and a possible national championship appearance, but they were completely dismantled at Oklahoma last week in a 65-21 final. Now, the Red Raiders are tied with the Sooners and Texas Longhorns atop the Big 12 South standings. If Tech and Oklahoma win on Saturday, the BCS rankings would determine the division's representative in the league championship tilt. The best chance for the Red Raiders to advance to the conference championship game is to beat the Bears and root for Oklahoma State to upset the Sooners Saturday night.
While wins have been hard to come by for Baylor this season, the future does look bright in Waco, largely because of the presence of freshman quarterback Robert Griffin. The rookie has been sensational, helping the Bears average 28 ppg and just over 380 total ypg this season. Opponents are scoring nearly 29 ppg and gaining almost 400 total ypg against Baylor. The Bears defense will now have its hands full with an angry bunch of Red Raiders
Heading into the Oklahoma game, Texas Tech quarterback Graham Harrell and his favorite target, Michael Crabtree, were considered leading candidates for the Heisman Trophy, but may have seen those hopes go down the drain with last week’s debacle at Oklahoma. Through 11 games, the Red Raiders are averaging over 45 ppg on the strength of more than 550 total ypg. Harrell has connected on an amazing 71% of his passes for over 4,400 yards and 39 TDs against just 6 INTs.
The Texas Tech defense was humiliated last week by the Sooners. On the season, opponents are averaging 26 ppg against the Red Raiders, which is yielding 376 total ypg. The Red Raiders have been solid against the run all season, and while they have yielded plenty of yardage through the air, they do have more interceptions than touchdown passes allowed.
Off such a great effort against Texas A&M, Baylor will have a hard time matching it.
"Our guys really put forth a great effort on both sides of the ball. I really felt (it was) our most complete game of the year." — Baylor coach Art Briles on last week's Senior Day win over Texas A&M.
Here is where we can play AGAINST a team off its peak performance of the season. Whether a blowout win, upset, revenge victory, played the “spoiler”, or any win in which a team feels like they “just won the Super Bowl”, they will be hard-pressed to match that emotion, effort, and intensity next time out and will be due for a fall.
In looking at some numbers, we find the Bears are 0-3 ATS the last 3 seasons as a conference underdog of more than 12 points off a SU win, and 0-15 SU (-32.3 ppg) & 0-15 ATS (-14.7 ppg) as a road underdog of more than 8 points vs. opponents off a SU loss of 7+ points.
Meanwhile, with Texas Tech we will:
Play ON a team with at least some pride off a horrible performance.
A team that has hit a new low with an awful showing will be determined to get rid of the bitter taste and bad press. When the players openly admit to being embarrassed by the result of their last effort, expect their best effort next time out.
The Red Raiders are actually in a strong spot here for a big performance, as they are:
6-0 ATS (+10.3 ppg) from Game 5 on off their first SU loss of the season;
16-0-1 ATS (16.8 ppg) in their final home game and not playing Oklahoma;
11-0 ATS (17.1 ppg) as a favorite of 3+ points vs. Baylor and not off a conference SU & ATS win.
Our SportsDataBase research also shows that home/neutral site teams in the final game of the regular season and off their first SU loss of the season are 3-0 SU (+30.3 ppg) & 3-0 ATS (+21.8 ppg) since at least 1980.
An NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM shows that home favorites with 0 or 1 losses on the season have been strong coming off a poor showing and facing opponents off a win. The Red Raiders qualify for this POWER SYSTEM that states:
In its Final Game, play ON a Saturday home favorite with less than 2 season SU losses off an ATS loss in its last game and not a conference home ATS loss of more than 7 points before that vs. an opponent off a SU win.
Since the mid-1980s, these teams have closed out the regular season by going 17-0 SU (+22.7 ppg) & 17-0 ATS (+13.3 ppg).
Penn State was the most recent qualifier when they hosted Michigan State last weekend. The Nittany Lions, favored by 16 points against a quality Spartans team, jumped on Michigan State early and cruised to a 49-18 victory and 15-point spread cover.
Now, it’s the Red Raiders turn to rebound. We expect a huge showing from their offense, as they look to get the bad taste of last week’s game out their mouths and set themselves up for a possible Big 12 Championship Game should the Sooners stumble against the Cowboys. Meanwhile, the Bears will be hard-pressed to mount much of a comeback when they fall behind big and can’t run a balanced offense, which should lead to a blowout loss for the visitors.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: TEXAS TECH 56 BAYLOR 17
2 STAR SELECTION
TEXAS TECH -21 1/2 over Baylor
Fresh off a humiliating defeat, the 7th-ranked Red Raiders get right back on the horse Saturday afternoon as they host the Bears in Big 12 Conference play.
This will be it for Baylor, which owns a 4-7 record overall. The Bears carried a four- game skid into a November 15th clash with Texas A&M, but got the 41-21 victory.
Texas Tech controlled its own fate for a trip to the Big 12 title game and a possible national championship appearance, but they were completely dismantled at Oklahoma last week in a 65-21 final. Now, the Red Raiders are tied with the Sooners and Texas Longhorns atop the Big 12 South standings. If Tech and Oklahoma win on Saturday, the BCS rankings would determine the division's representative in the league championship tilt. The best chance for the Red Raiders to advance to the conference championship game is to beat the Bears and root for Oklahoma State to upset the Sooners Saturday night.
While wins have been hard to come by for Baylor this season, the future does look bright in Waco, largely because of the presence of freshman quarterback Robert Griffin. The rookie has been sensational, helping the Bears average 28 ppg and just over 380 total ypg this season. Opponents are scoring nearly 29 ppg and gaining almost 400 total ypg against Baylor. The Bears defense will now have its hands full with an angry bunch of Red Raiders
Heading into the Oklahoma game, Texas Tech quarterback Graham Harrell and his favorite target, Michael Crabtree, were considered leading candidates for the Heisman Trophy, but may have seen those hopes go down the drain with last week’s debacle at Oklahoma. Through 11 games, the Red Raiders are averaging over 45 ppg on the strength of more than 550 total ypg. Harrell has connected on an amazing 71% of his passes for over 4,400 yards and 39 TDs against just 6 INTs.
The Texas Tech defense was humiliated last week by the Sooners. On the season, opponents are averaging 26 ppg against the Red Raiders, which is yielding 376 total ypg. The Red Raiders have been solid against the run all season, and while they have yielded plenty of yardage through the air, they do have more interceptions than touchdown passes allowed.
Off such a great effort against Texas A&M, Baylor will have a hard time matching it.
"Our guys really put forth a great effort on both sides of the ball. I really felt (it was) our most complete game of the year." — Baylor coach Art Briles on last week's Senior Day win over Texas A&M.
Here is where we can play AGAINST a team off its peak performance of the season. Whether a blowout win, upset, revenge victory, played the “spoiler”, or any win in which a team feels like they “just won the Super Bowl”, they will be hard-pressed to match that emotion, effort, and intensity next time out and will be due for a fall.
In looking at some numbers, we find the Bears are 0-3 ATS the last 3 seasons as a conference underdog of more than 12 points off a SU win, and 0-15 SU (-32.3 ppg) & 0-15 ATS (-14.7 ppg) as a road underdog of more than 8 points vs. opponents off a SU loss of 7+ points.
Meanwhile, with Texas Tech we will:
Play ON a team with at least some pride off a horrible performance.
A team that has hit a new low with an awful showing will be determined to get rid of the bitter taste and bad press. When the players openly admit to being embarrassed by the result of their last effort, expect their best effort next time out.
The Red Raiders are actually in a strong spot here for a big performance, as they are:
6-0 ATS (+10.3 ppg) from Game 5 on off their first SU loss of the season;
16-0-1 ATS (16.8 ppg) in their final home game and not playing Oklahoma;
11-0 ATS (17.1 ppg) as a favorite of 3+ points vs. Baylor and not off a conference SU & ATS win.
Our SportsDataBase research also shows that home/neutral site teams in the final game of the regular season and off their first SU loss of the season are 3-0 SU (+30.3 ppg) & 3-0 ATS (+21.8 ppg) since at least 1980.
An NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM shows that home favorites with 0 or 1 losses on the season have been strong coming off a poor showing and facing opponents off a win. The Red Raiders qualify for this POWER SYSTEM that states:
In its Final Game, play ON a Saturday home favorite with less than 2 season SU losses off an ATS loss in its last game and not a conference home ATS loss of more than 7 points before that vs. an opponent off a SU win.
Since the mid-1980s, these teams have closed out the regular season by going 17-0 SU (+22.7 ppg) & 17-0 ATS (+13.3 ppg).
Penn State was the most recent qualifier when they hosted Michigan State last weekend. The Nittany Lions, favored by 16 points against a quality Spartans team, jumped on Michigan State early and cruised to a 49-18 victory and 15-point spread cover.
Now, it’s the Red Raiders turn to rebound. We expect a huge showing from their offense, as they look to get the bad taste of last week’s game out their mouths and set themselves up for a possible Big 12 Championship Game should the Sooners stumble against the Cowboys. Meanwhile, the Bears will be hard-pressed to mount much of a comeback when they fall behind big and can’t run a balanced offense, which should lead to a blowout loss for the visitors.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: TEXAS TECH 56 BAYLOR 17
DAVE MALINSKY
GAME: Georgia Tech @ Georgia Nov 29, 2008 12:00PM
SPORT: College Football Picks
PICK: Georgia
REASON FOR PICK: 4* #366 GEORGIA over GEORGIA TECH
We started the college football regular season by having a lot of success taking the S.E.C. against a vastly inferior A.C.C. when the right pairings were available, and what better way to spend a Saturday than by not only re-visiting that particular concept, but also using an annual series that has provided us meat to put between the bread many times?
Here is the gist of this one – Georgia has won seven straight against Georgia Tech, going 5-1-1 ATS in the process, and beating the pointspread by a combined 65.5 points over those games. How do the oddsmakers miss such a series by an average of 9.5 points per contest over such a span? Because basically we get the same layout each time – the previous two months Georgia Tech is taking on much inferior competition than Georgia, and it sets up perceptions that just do not match the true realities of the gap between these programs. It is the same again here, and with the marketplace helping to drop this one into our laps we can step in again.
The Yellow Jackets have adapted better to Paul Johnson’s offensive schemes than we thought that they would in his first season, but some of that has to be taken with a grain of salt – they were playing in a weak conference, and most opposing defenses were seeing these designs for the first time. Now they not only have to face a Georgia defense loaded with athleticism up front, but it is also a defense that has two full weeks to prepare for those tactics, including a chance to sit back and watch Tech on national television last Thursday night. That helps not just tactically, but the fact that the Yellow Jackets were blowing out Miami also fully alerts Mark Richt’s squad to the challenge that is at hand.
Not only does Georgia bring the defensive tools here, but that outstanding corps of skill players can make plays vs. a defense that has not seen anything near this class of offense all season. The emotions will run particularly high on the Bulldog sidelines, because we are being told that this will be QB Matthew Stafford’s last game between the hedges. Stafford, Knowshon Moreno and the rest of the cast can exploit a Tech defense that will be without key LB Sedric Griffin (their third leading tackler), and S Dominique Reese, and while the Jackets do hope to have Jahi Word-Daniels back in the secondary, he has missed the last four games with a hamstring injury, and his timing will be an issue.
GAME: Georgia Tech @ Georgia Nov 29, 2008 12:00PM
SPORT: College Football Picks
PICK: Georgia
REASON FOR PICK: 4* #366 GEORGIA over GEORGIA TECH
We started the college football regular season by having a lot of success taking the S.E.C. against a vastly inferior A.C.C. when the right pairings were available, and what better way to spend a Saturday than by not only re-visiting that particular concept, but also using an annual series that has provided us meat to put between the bread many times?
Here is the gist of this one – Georgia has won seven straight against Georgia Tech, going 5-1-1 ATS in the process, and beating the pointspread by a combined 65.5 points over those games. How do the oddsmakers miss such a series by an average of 9.5 points per contest over such a span? Because basically we get the same layout each time – the previous two months Georgia Tech is taking on much inferior competition than Georgia, and it sets up perceptions that just do not match the true realities of the gap between these programs. It is the same again here, and with the marketplace helping to drop this one into our laps we can step in again.
The Yellow Jackets have adapted better to Paul Johnson’s offensive schemes than we thought that they would in his first season, but some of that has to be taken with a grain of salt – they were playing in a weak conference, and most opposing defenses were seeing these designs for the first time. Now they not only have to face a Georgia defense loaded with athleticism up front, but it is also a defense that has two full weeks to prepare for those tactics, including a chance to sit back and watch Tech on national television last Thursday night. That helps not just tactically, but the fact that the Yellow Jackets were blowing out Miami also fully alerts Mark Richt’s squad to the challenge that is at hand.
Not only does Georgia bring the defensive tools here, but that outstanding corps of skill players can make plays vs. a defense that has not seen anything near this class of offense all season. The emotions will run particularly high on the Bulldog sidelines, because we are being told that this will be QB Matthew Stafford’s last game between the hedges. Stafford, Knowshon Moreno and the rest of the cast can exploit a Tech defense that will be without key LB Sedric Griffin (their third leading tackler), and S Dominique Reese, and while the Jackets do hope to have Jahi Word-Daniels back in the secondary, he has missed the last four games with a hamstring injury, and his timing will be an issue.
