Dr Bob
No Best Bets for Saturday (unless Detroit goes down to -3).
Saturday NCAA Analysis
Pittsburgh (-2) versus Villanova
Villanova beat Pitt 67-57 in Philly earlier this season as Panthers’ star big man DeJuan Blair was limited to just 20 minutes due to foul trouble. Blair only averages 2.7 fouls per game, so I don’t see him getting in foul trouble again and having him on the floor more will certainly help Pitt in the rematch. Hitting some shots will also help the Panthers, who were a randomly bad 3 for 16 from 3-point range and only 59% from the free throw line in that game. My ratings favor Pitt by 2 ½ points with a total of 142 points and I have no opinion on this game.
Connecticut (-5 ½) over Missouri
Both of these teams have been very impressive during the tournament, but Connecticut has been the better team over the course of the season and Missouri’s run to the Final Four is likely over. The Tigers aren’t likely to get to the rim much against Connecticut’s shot blocking C Hasheem Thabeet and Mizzou is not a great 3-point shooting team (35.5%), so forcing turnovers for easy buckets would seem to be the answer. U Conn, however, takes care of the ball very well (just 12 turnovers per game). My first instinct was that the line on this game was a bit too high, but my ratings using only games against quality opposition favors the Huskies by 5 ½ points (with a total of 146 points), so the line is fair. U Conn applies to a negative 4-20 ATS round 4 situation while Missouri applies to a negative 27-82-2 ATS situation (that angle is 1-0 ATS when intersecting with the situation that applies to Connecticut), so I don’t really want either side here. I have no opinion on the side and I’ll lean with the under (150 ½ points).
Saturday NBA Opinion
Detroit (-4) over WASHINGTON
Washington is coming off a rare victory but the Wizards are just 2-9 ATS this season after a win when not getting more than 10 points (1-5 ATS at home) and they apply to a negative 45-107-3 ATS general letdown situation. Detroit has been on a slide lately without Rasheed Wallace and Richard Hamilton, but both return today (they are better without Allen Iverson and he is still likely out). Washington’s Caron Butler is also returning from injury today and the difference between him being in or out is 2 points and my ratings only favor Detroit by 3 points with Butler playing. I’ll lean with Detroit at -4, but I’d only take the Pistons in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 or less.