THE SPORTS ADVISORS
NCAA TOURNAMENT
EAST REGION
(at Boston)
(3) Villanova (29-7, 18-14 ATS) vs. (1) Pittsburgh (31-4, 16-12-1 ATS)
Villanova rumbled to its second straight blowout victory in Thursday’s Sweet 16 round, ripping second-seeded Duke 77-54 behind a 51-point second half to pull the mild upset as a 2½-point underdog. Dante Cunningham doubled up with 14 points and 11 rebounds, and Scottie Reynolds had 16 points. Villanova shot a mediocre 42.2 percent, but its defense stifled the Blue Devils into a 16-for-60 effort from the floor (26.7 percent), including 5-for-27 from three-point range (18.5 percent). The Wildcats are now on a 6-1 SU run (4-3 ATS).
Pittsburgh faced a far greater challenge than Villanova in its Sweet 16 contest, trailing in the final minute against fourth-seeded Xavier before Levance Fields knocked down a deep three-pointer, then got a steal and layup to ignite an 8-1 game-ending run in a 60-55 victory. However, the Panthers fell short as a 6½-point chalk, dropping to 0-3 ATS in this year’s Big Dance. In an extremely even contest, Pitt shot just 33.8 percent – though Sam Young had 19 points on 7-for-16 shooting – while the Musketeers, who started the second half with a six-minute scoreless drought, were even worse at 32.8 percent.
These Big East rivals met just once this regular season on Jan. 28, with Villanova winning outright 67-57 as a 3½-point home pup to end a four-game ATS run by Pitt in this rivalry (3-1 SU). Furthermore, the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five contests. However, since March 2004, ‘Nova has faced Pitt just once outside Philadelphia, with the Panthers rolling 69-57 as a seven-point home chalk in January 2008.
Villanova, in its 29th NCAA appearance, has reached the Elite Eight for the first time since 2006, when it lost to eventual champion Florida 75-62 as a one-point favorite. Pittsburgh, in its 21st NCAA Tourney, has been in the Big Dance six straight years under coach Jamie Dixon, but this is the first time the Panthers have gotten to the Elite Eight in that stretch. In fact, with Thursday’s win over Xavier, Pitt advanced past the Sweet 16 for the first time since 1974.
The Wildcats are on ATS rolls of 12-5 against winning teams, 15-7 as a neutral-site pup, 4-1 as an NCAA ‘dog, 9-3 after an ATS win and 11-4 against teams with a winning percentage above .600.
The Panthers are on an 8-3 ATS run against Big East opponents, but their pointspread numbers tail off from there, including slumps of 0-4 overall (all at neutral sites), 1-5 in the Tournament (0-4 in the last four), 1-5 as a Tourney favorite, 1-6 laying less than seven points in the NCAAs and 2-5 after a SU win.
The under for Villanova is on stretches of 6-0 against winning teams, 24-8-1 as an underdog, 19-7-1 as a pup of less than seven points and 4-0 as a neutral-site ‘dog. Likewise, the under for Pittsburgh is on tears of 4-1 overall, 6-0 against winning teams and 6-1 on neutral courts. Finally, the last six meetings in this rivalry have stayed low, with none of the six contests featuring more than 127 combined points.
ATS ADVANTAGE: VILLANOVA and UNDER
WEST REGIONAL
(at Phoenix)
(3) Missouri (31-6, 20-10 ATS) vs. (1) Connecticut (30-4, 15-15 ATS)
Red-hot Missouri ran its winning streak to six in a row both SU and ATS after knocking off second-seeded Memphis on Thursday, building up a 24-point second-half lead, then fending off a furious rally for a 102-91 win as a 4½-point underdog. All five Mizzou starters scored in double figures, led by J.T. Tiller’s 23 points, and the Tigers shot 53.2 percent to break the century mark against the nation’s seventh-ranked scoring defense (58.8 ppg) and No. 1-ranked shooting defense (37.2 percent). Memphis had been riding a national-best 27-game win streak and was on a 15-5 ATS run.
Connecticut wasn’t distracted by off-court recruiting issues, dropping fifth-seeded Purdue 72-60 as a seven-point chalk Thursday to move to 3-0 SU and ATS in this year’s Tournament. Craig Austrie scored 17 points, going 3-for-3 on three-pointers, and 7-foot-3-inch center Hasheem Thabeet had a big night with 15 points, 15 rebounds and four blocks, helping hold the Boilermakers to just 36.4 percent from the field. The Huskies, meanwhile, shot 44.6 percent and had a 42-31 rebounding edge. UConn has outrebounded its three Tournament foes by a combined 134-86.
Missouri is in its 22nd NCAA Tournament and its first since 2003. However, the Tigers have never reached the Final Four in its previous 21 appearances.
UConn, meanwhile, is a two-time national champion under Jim Calhoun and is in its 29th Big Dance. The Huskies have reached the Elite Eight for the first time since 2006, when they were upset by Tournament darling George Mason 86-84 in overtime as an eight-point chalk. Both of UConn’s national championships came with the team playing in the West Region.
The Tigers are on a 14-2 SU and 13-3 ATS blitz, and they are on additional pointspread sprees of 16-5 overall, 5-0 against winning teams, 9-2 in the Tournament and 5-1 as an NCAA pup. Mizzou’s current 6-0 SU and ATS surge has all come on neutral courts, beginning with its run to the Big 12 tourney title and continuing with its three victories in the NCAAs. The Tigers’ 31 victories are a single-season best for the school.
The Huskies were an ATS mess entering the Tournament, having dropped 13 straight postseason pointspread decisions, including seven in a row (all as a favorite) in the NCAAs. However, along with their 3-0 ATS mark in this year’s Tourney, they are riding positive ATS streaks of 6-1 on neutral courts, 5-1 as a neutral-site favorite and 6-2 outside the Big East.
The over for Missouri is on a plethora of hot streaks, including 9-1 in the Tournament, 15-7 in non-conference clashes, 7-0 with the Tigers catching points in the Tournament and 8-2 when the Tigers are a neutral-site ‘dog. UConn is also on a bundle of “over” runs, including 6-1 in the Tournament, 4-0 against the Big 12, 21-8 on neutral floors and 14-4 as a neutral-site chalk.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NBA
Phoenix (40-32, 29-41-2) at Utah (44-27, 37-34 ATS)
Two days after seeing their six-game winning streak end in blowout fashion, the Suns continue a three-game road swing with a stop at Energy Solutions Arena, where the Jazz have won 13 in a row.
After knocking off Utah 118-114 as a three-point favorite Tuesday for its sixth consecutive victory, the Suns went to Portland on Thursday and got clobbered 129-109 as a 6½-point road underdog. It marked Phoenix’s sixth loss in its last seven road games (2-5 ATS), and its only victories in its last 10 roadies have come at Pacific Division bottom-feeders the Warriors and Clippers.
Prior to Tuesday’s loss in Phoenix, Utah had won three in a row (2-1 ATS) after an 0-3 SU and ATS slide. Although the Jazz are on a 19-6 SU run, including that 13-game home winning streak, they’ve followed up a 10-2 ATS romp (8-0 at home) by cashing in just five of their last 13 contests (1-4 ATS at home).
The host has taken all three meetings in this season series, with the Jazz rolling 109-97 as a two-point home chalk on Nov. 17 before Phoenix took the last two at home by a total of six points. With the Suns barely cashing in this week’s clash in the desert, it ended Utah’s 5-0 ATS run in this rivalry. Going back several years, the visitor is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings and the ‘dog is on a 15-7 ATS roll.
The scoreboard figures to get a workout in this one, as the Jazz have hit triple digits in 20 of their last 26 games and Phoenix has done so in 27 of its last 31 contests. In fact, the Suns have scored at least 109 points in nine straight games, averaging 120.8 ppg during this stretch. Since Alvin Gentry took over as coach Feb. 17, Phoenix has scored at least 98 points in 21 consecutive games, but 25 of the team’s last 29 opponents – including 19 of 21 since Gentry took over – have hit the century mark.
The Suns are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven roadies, 4-11 ATS in their past 15 against teams with a winning record and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 as an underdog, but otherwise they’re on positive pointspread stretches of 5-2 overall, 7-2 on Saturday, 5-2-1 after a double-digit loss and 6-0 after allowing more than 125 points in their previous outing.
Utah carries negative ATS streaks of 2-5 overall, 1-4 at home, 1-5 on Saturday, 1-6 against winning teams, 3-7 after a SU defeat and 0-4 when giving up 100 points or more in their last game. On the bright side, the Jazz are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 as a favorite and 58-28-2 ATS in their last 88 as a home chalk.
The high-scoring Suns are riding a bevy of “over” streaks, including 15-7 overall, 4-1 on the road, 4-0 against winning teams, 9-4 versus the Western Conference, 20-7 as a road underdog and 4-0 against teams with a winning record. The over is also 4-0 in Utah’s last four against winning teams and 32-14 in its last 46 versus Pacific Division foes. Finally, the last four series meetings – including all three this season – have hurdled the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER