Ron Raymond NHL PICK FOR SATURDAY MARCH 28TH
by Ron Raymond on 03/28/2009
I like the UNDER 6.O -120 in the FLYERS - ISLANDERS game this evening. When NY ISLANDERS team played as a home team - Last 2 years - 3 games in 4 nights; the UNDER is 14-5-1 for the NYI in this spot L2Y.
GOOD LUCK
Ron Raymond
by Ron Raymond on 03/28/2009
I like the UNDER 6.O -120 in the FLYERS - ISLANDERS game this evening. When NY ISLANDERS team played as a home team - Last 2 years - 3 games in 4 nights; the UNDER is 14-5-1 for the NYI in this spot L2Y.
GOOD LUCK
Ron Raymond
Yankee Capper Bonus Plays
TODAY'S Bonus Plays (Bonus Plays 5-1 Friday)
NHL
NY Rangers/Pittsburgh u5.5
Buffalo/Montreal o5.5
NBA
Indiana/Chicago o213
Phoenix/Utah o230.5
NCAA HOOPS
Missouri/UConn o150
Villanova +2
**He's been on fire lately, even with the Bonus Plays. Anyone see his play on Missouri/UConn later or either of tomorrows Elite 8 Plays?**
TODAY'S Bonus Plays (Bonus Plays 5-1 Friday)
NHL
NY Rangers/Pittsburgh u5.5
Buffalo/Montreal o5.5
NBA
Indiana/Chicago o213
Phoenix/Utah o230.5
NCAA HOOPS
Missouri/UConn o150
Villanova +2
**He's been on fire lately, even with the Bonus Plays. Anyone see his play on Missouri/UConn later or either of tomorrows Elite 8 Plays?**
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Pittsbaurgh/ Villanova Under 140.5: The Under is 6-1 in Wildcats last 7 games following a SU win of more than 20 points, while the Under is 6-1 in Panthers last 7 neutral site games as a favorite. Both teams have been playing excellent defense this year as the Cats have allowed 66.7 ppg on the year (145th) and they are 37th in FG% defense (40.1%), while the Panthers have allowed just 64.1 ppg overall (81st) and they are 44th in defensive FG% ((40.4%). In their last 5 games the Panthers have allowed just 65.4 ppg on 37.8%, while Villanova has allowed just 66.7 ppg on 37.8% shooting in their last 5 games. Villanova's neutral games have averaged 141.8 ppg, but Pitts neutral games have averaged 131.8 ppg. We also note that the last 6 in this series has gone Under the total , with an average of 124.7 ppg being scored, while not one of those games put up more than 127 points. Both teams can score, but this is still a Big East game and that means a tough, physical battle with not much running up an down the floor. I see this one at 130 or less.
3 UNIT PLAY
UConn -5.5 over Missouri: The Tigers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 90 points in their previous game, while teh Huskies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games. The Tigers are off an impressive win vs Memphis, but today the Task gets a whole lot tougher. The Huskies have been extremely impressive in the Tourney as they have won their games by an average of 30 ppg. Their defense has been tough of last as they have allowed 57.6 ppg in the 3 games, and two of those teams (A&M and Chatt) are pretty good offensive squads. For the year the Huskies have allowed just 63.4 ppg (67th) and they are 2nd in the nation in defensive FG% (37.4%). Today's task will not be easy as the Tigers have averaged 81.6 ppg on the year (4th) and they shoot 47.4% from the field (27th). A weakness for this team is their reboundiing, as the Huskies have a sizeable edge (pun intened) in that department. Another edge the Huskies do have is on defense. I already went through their defensive stats above, so now let's take a look at the Tigers for a moment. Missouri comes in allowing 67.3 ppg overall (157th), plus they have allowed 72.4 ppg when they have played away from home this year. Now even though they held Cornell to just 59 points in the opening round of the Tourney, they have comeback to allow 85 ppg on 45% shooting in their next 2 games. The Tigers have been playing at a high intensity so far, but it runs out today as Thabeet and company take them out behind the woodshed for a nice 10+ poiunt win.
2 UNIT PLAY
UConn/ Missouri Over 150: The Over is 20-6 in Tigers last 26 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5 and 9-1 in their last 10 NCAA Tournament games, while the Over is 14-3 in Huskies last 17 neutral site games as a favorite and 5-1 in their last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Both teams like to push the ball as the Huskies average 78.4 ppg overall, while the Tigers have put up 80.9 ppg this year. UConn has averaged 89 ppg in the tourney so far, while the Tigers have put up 87.7 ppg in their 3 games. I see this one at about 160, with the Huskies taking it 87-73.
1 UNIT PLAY
Pittsburgh -2 over Villanova: The Wildcats are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win of more than 20 points, while the Panthers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. Big East. The Panthers will just have too much defense in this one to keep the hot Cats from moving on. Pittsburgh by 5+ in a low scoring game tonight.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Pittsbaurgh/ Villanova Under 140.5: The Under is 6-1 in Wildcats last 7 games following a SU win of more than 20 points, while the Under is 6-1 in Panthers last 7 neutral site games as a favorite. Both teams have been playing excellent defense this year as the Cats have allowed 66.7 ppg on the year (145th) and they are 37th in FG% defense (40.1%), while the Panthers have allowed just 64.1 ppg overall (81st) and they are 44th in defensive FG% ((40.4%). In their last 5 games the Panthers have allowed just 65.4 ppg on 37.8%, while Villanova has allowed just 66.7 ppg on 37.8% shooting in their last 5 games. Villanova's neutral games have averaged 141.8 ppg, but Pitts neutral games have averaged 131.8 ppg. We also note that the last 6 in this series has gone Under the total , with an average of 124.7 ppg being scored, while not one of those games put up more than 127 points. Both teams can score, but this is still a Big East game and that means a tough, physical battle with not much running up an down the floor. I see this one at 130 or less.
3 UNIT PLAY
UConn -5.5 over Missouri: The Tigers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 90 points in their previous game, while teh Huskies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games. The Tigers are off an impressive win vs Memphis, but today the Task gets a whole lot tougher. The Huskies have been extremely impressive in the Tourney as they have won their games by an average of 30 ppg. Their defense has been tough of last as they have allowed 57.6 ppg in the 3 games, and two of those teams (A&M and Chatt) are pretty good offensive squads. For the year the Huskies have allowed just 63.4 ppg (67th) and they are 2nd in the nation in defensive FG% (37.4%). Today's task will not be easy as the Tigers have averaged 81.6 ppg on the year (4th) and they shoot 47.4% from the field (27th). A weakness for this team is their reboundiing, as the Huskies have a sizeable edge (pun intened) in that department. Another edge the Huskies do have is on defense. I already went through their defensive stats above, so now let's take a look at the Tigers for a moment. Missouri comes in allowing 67.3 ppg overall (157th), plus they have allowed 72.4 ppg when they have played away from home this year. Now even though they held Cornell to just 59 points in the opening round of the Tourney, they have comeback to allow 85 ppg on 45% shooting in their next 2 games. The Tigers have been playing at a high intensity so far, but it runs out today as Thabeet and company take them out behind the woodshed for a nice 10+ poiunt win.
2 UNIT PLAY
UConn/ Missouri Over 150: The Over is 20-6 in Tigers last 26 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5 and 9-1 in their last 10 NCAA Tournament games, while the Over is 14-3 in Huskies last 17 neutral site games as a favorite and 5-1 in their last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Both teams like to push the ball as the Huskies average 78.4 ppg overall, while the Tigers have put up 80.9 ppg this year. UConn has averaged 89 ppg in the tourney so far, while the Tigers have put up 87.7 ppg in their 3 games. I see this one at about 160, with the Huskies taking it 87-73.
1 UNIT PLAY
Pittsburgh -2 over Villanova: The Wildcats are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win of more than 20 points, while the Panthers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. Big East. The Panthers will just have too much defense in this one to keep the hot Cats from moving on. Pittsburgh by 5+ in a low scoring game tonight.
Dave Malinsky
4* #520 CONNECTICUT over MISSOURI
Few teams have been as big of a meal ticket in any sports season as
Missouri was for us down the stretch ? since January 31st the Tigers
produced a perfect 6-0 when we backed them, including three 6* plays
and a 5*. But this is where the run ends for Mike Anderson and his
team. While their ability to pressure opponents into mistakes, and
take advantage of them with outstanding precisions, has been special,
what it has also hidden is that their talent is only good, not great.
Now they run into an opponent that will force a different pace into
the game and will rarely turn the ball over, and this game flow will
show how great of a job that Anderson did with the pieces at hand
this season.
Connecticut is not going to be bothered by a press. While Hasheem
Thabeet gets those deserved accolades for the impact that he has only
games, it is point guard A. J. Price that has been the heart of this
team, and Price has only turned the ball over 88 times in 1,047 floor
minutes this season, despite the fact that many of those minutes came
against tough Big East defenses. He has set the tone for a team that
has only 425 turnovers in 34 games, and one that can use their size
as an advantage against the press ? with Thabeet, Jeff Adrien and
Stanley Robinson on the court, they can throw the ball right over the
top of traps. And Price?s back-court mate Craig Austrie has been as
strong with the ball as just about any guard around, with 80 assists
vs. only 28 turnovers in 845 minutes. The latter count is special.
So what happens when the Missouri presses are broken? A team that
lacks size around the basket not only has a huge matchup headache
with Thabeet, literally, but both Robinson (15.3 points and 7.7
rebounds per tourney game) and Adrien (14.7 and 10.0 in the Dance)
have been dominating as well down low. That exploits a weakness that
both Marquette and Memphis were able to find, with each of those
teams slashing to the basket through large openings. And it is not
just the half-court defense for Missouri that can be exploited, but
the fact that when they are not getting easy opportunities off of
turnovers the Tiger half-court offense is also nothing special.
Missouri gets a lot of assists from attacking the basket and
unselfishly dishing the ball. But there is nothing to attack against
Connecticut ? the Huskies allowed only 37.4 percent shooting,
including 30.5 from 3-point range, blocking 265 shots along the way.
It is a matchup that will eventually see the Tiger offense bog down,
and they get forced to play a grinder of a game that takes their
strentghs away, and exposes all weaknesses.
4* #514 UTAH over PHOENIX
When Jerry Sloan looks at films of Utah?s loss at Phoenix on
Wednesday night he sees a perfect storm of disasters by his team. The
Jazz allowed the Suns to shoot 54.9 percent from the field; grab more
rebounds; get 31 fast break points vs. only 14; and win the points in
the paint battle by a major 68-38. All the while Utah was making only
16-27 free throws. So it is no secret that it disturbed the veteran
coach, who has had his team at home since that debacle to study the
films and go over the glaring mistakes. But here is the subtle key
for our purposes tonight ? even with all of that happening, it was a
tie game in the final minute. On a night in which the pendulums were
swinging in the Phoenix direction in a major way, the Suns could
barely escape. They will not be so lucky here.
On Thursday we cashed an easy 4* ticket with Portland over Phoenix in
the first road outing since losing Leandro Barbosa, and the Suns had
little say in the outcome ? once again they were just awful
defensively, allowing 60.2 percent shooting, and the legs and depth
were not there to chase from behind. Now in a key back-to-back
sequence Alvin Gentry must remain aware of the issues that his team
has, knowing that burning out those legs in a game that may not be
able to win tonight anyway only makes matters more difficult when
they play at Sacramento tomorrow, one that absolutely must put into
the win column to keep their flickering playoff hopes alive. And on a
court on which the Jazz are on a current run of 13-0 SU and 10-3 ATS,
with the three spread failures coming by a combined 5.5 points, it is
an uphill battle from the opening tipoff.
Note that the recent home surge by Utah had little to do with
scheduling ? the Jazz beat the Celtics, Hornets, Hawks, Lakers,
Nuggets and Rockets (twice) in that span. They deliver another
knockout punch here, as fresh legs propel a bitter revenge motive
into a blowout.
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4* #520 CONNECTICUT over MISSOURI
Few teams have been as big of a meal ticket in any sports season as
Missouri was for us down the stretch ? since January 31st the Tigers
produced a perfect 6-0 when we backed them, including three 6* plays
and a 5*. But this is where the run ends for Mike Anderson and his
team. While their ability to pressure opponents into mistakes, and
take advantage of them with outstanding precisions, has been special,
what it has also hidden is that their talent is only good, not great.
Now they run into an opponent that will force a different pace into
the game and will rarely turn the ball over, and this game flow will
show how great of a job that Anderson did with the pieces at hand
this season.
Connecticut is not going to be bothered by a press. While Hasheem
Thabeet gets those deserved accolades for the impact that he has only
games, it is point guard A. J. Price that has been the heart of this
team, and Price has only turned the ball over 88 times in 1,047 floor
minutes this season, despite the fact that many of those minutes came
against tough Big East defenses. He has set the tone for a team that
has only 425 turnovers in 34 games, and one that can use their size
as an advantage against the press ? with Thabeet, Jeff Adrien and
Stanley Robinson on the court, they can throw the ball right over the
top of traps. And Price?s back-court mate Craig Austrie has been as
strong with the ball as just about any guard around, with 80 assists
vs. only 28 turnovers in 845 minutes. The latter count is special.
So what happens when the Missouri presses are broken? A team that
lacks size around the basket not only has a huge matchup headache
with Thabeet, literally, but both Robinson (15.3 points and 7.7
rebounds per tourney game) and Adrien (14.7 and 10.0 in the Dance)
have been dominating as well down low. That exploits a weakness that
both Marquette and Memphis were able to find, with each of those
teams slashing to the basket through large openings. And it is not
just the half-court defense for Missouri that can be exploited, but
the fact that when they are not getting easy opportunities off of
turnovers the Tiger half-court offense is also nothing special.
Missouri gets a lot of assists from attacking the basket and
unselfishly dishing the ball. But there is nothing to attack against
Connecticut ? the Huskies allowed only 37.4 percent shooting,
including 30.5 from 3-point range, blocking 265 shots along the way.
It is a matchup that will eventually see the Tiger offense bog down,
and they get forced to play a grinder of a game that takes their
strentghs away, and exposes all weaknesses.
4* #514 UTAH over PHOENIX
When Jerry Sloan looks at films of Utah?s loss at Phoenix on
Wednesday night he sees a perfect storm of disasters by his team. The
Jazz allowed the Suns to shoot 54.9 percent from the field; grab more
rebounds; get 31 fast break points vs. only 14; and win the points in
the paint battle by a major 68-38. All the while Utah was making only
16-27 free throws. So it is no secret that it disturbed the veteran
coach, who has had his team at home since that debacle to study the
films and go over the glaring mistakes. But here is the subtle key
for our purposes tonight ? even with all of that happening, it was a
tie game in the final minute. On a night in which the pendulums were
swinging in the Phoenix direction in a major way, the Suns could
barely escape. They will not be so lucky here.
On Thursday we cashed an easy 4* ticket with Portland over Phoenix in
the first road outing since losing Leandro Barbosa, and the Suns had
little say in the outcome ? once again they were just awful
defensively, allowing 60.2 percent shooting, and the legs and depth
were not there to chase from behind. Now in a key back-to-back
sequence Alvin Gentry must remain aware of the issues that his team
has, knowing that burning out those legs in a game that may not be
able to win tonight anyway only makes matters more difficult when
they play at Sacramento tomorrow, one that absolutely must put into
the win column to keep their flickering playoff hopes alive. And on a
court on which the Jazz are on a current run of 13-0 SU and 10-3 ATS,
with the three spread failures coming by a combined 5.5 points, it is
an uphill battle from the opening tipoff.
Note that the recent home surge by Utah had little to do with
scheduling ? the Jazz beat the Celtics, Hornets, Hawks, Lakers,
Nuggets and Rockets (twice) in that span. They deliver another
knockout punch here, as fresh legs propel a bitter revenge motive
into a blowout.
<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
Stephen Nover
NBA
Stephen Nover
Over (190.5 -125)
The Clippers are playing their sixth road game in a row. They are a tired, demoralized team that has given up on playing defense. They've allowed an average of 110.1 points in their last nine games.
Los Angeles has allowed six of its last eight foes to shoot 50 pecent or better from the field. The Rockets have shot 47.2 percent from the floor during their past 16 home games.
The Clippers are going to be missing their lone solid defender and top shot-blocker, Marcus Camby. Look for Yao Ming to go to town.
The pointspread is huge, but the Rockets shouldn't be letting up or playing their subs too much. They've been off since Tuesday and won't play again until Tuesday. This is going to be a fun game for the Rockets.
Not only will the Clippers be missing Camby but Baron Davis is out, too. This is good for the 'over.' Camby is strictly defense, while the disinterested Davis is a low percentage shooter.
Rookies Eric Gordon and Mike Taylor will be doing a lot of scoring for the Clippers. So will Al Thornton and Zach Randolph. These guys think offense first and are statistically inclined with their hopeless team far out of the playoff picture.
NBA
Stephen Nover
Over (190.5 -125)
The Clippers are playing their sixth road game in a row. They are a tired, demoralized team that has given up on playing defense. They've allowed an average of 110.1 points in their last nine games.
Los Angeles has allowed six of its last eight foes to shoot 50 pecent or better from the field. The Rockets have shot 47.2 percent from the floor during their past 16 home games.
The Clippers are going to be missing their lone solid defender and top shot-blocker, Marcus Camby. Look for Yao Ming to go to town.
The pointspread is huge, but the Rockets shouldn't be letting up or playing their subs too much. They've been off since Tuesday and won't play again until Tuesday. This is going to be a fun game for the Rockets.
Not only will the Clippers be missing Camby but Baron Davis is out, too. This is good for the 'over.' Camby is strictly defense, while the disinterested Davis is a low percentage shooter.
Rookies Eric Gordon and Mike Taylor will be doing a lot of scoring for the Clippers. So will Al Thornton and Zach Randolph. These guys think offense first and are statistically inclined with their hopeless team far out of the playoff picture.
