Poster Michelangelo wants to bet Vitterd $1K on baseball for the rest of the season. Vit won't take the bet. Why?

[festeringZit]

Vit actually appears to be in the majority. Surprising to me.

The concept in the thread is not a matter of opinion (which I think you know). There is a right and wrong answer.

 

[MantisToboggan]

Well, a handicapping contest is what this is essentially. It's meant to determine who the better handicapper is. That's really the bet right?

I'm going to beat him soundly for the season and he may beat me in the 2nd half. And I will lose the bet.

No chance I'm making a bet like that. It wouldn't make sense for me to do so.

Not really.

 

[vitterd]

Vit actually appears to be in the majority. Surprising to me.

It's that way because there are a few different reasons that makes this a stupid bet for me.

I win 13 dimes and much loses 59 dimes.....here's a thousand mich....you out capped me this year. Great job.

 

[MantisToboggan]

The concept in the thread is not a matter of opinion (which I think you know). There is a right and wrong answer.

Ya it's math vs feelings. One is objective one is subjective.

 

[Acebb]

Get on team Margot now!

 

[SheriffJoe]

There are as many people in the thread who agree with Vitterd as disagree with him. It is a pretty common fallacy.

Not a very unique situation.

Actually, to say someone is a 55% capper is a huge fallacy in itself since there are so many variables in play and things change all the time.

What is +EV yesterday is not necessarily +EV tomorrow.

 

[vitterd]

This isn't a "stupid bet" and you can't grasp it because you have the IQ of a turnip.

I do rather love the idea that mr. millionaire here is now this big financially conservative poster. After bragging about the "thousands in verified bets" lie, no less.

Don't worry stupid, you can't face the contradictions here because more of your silly, dumb lies are falling apart. You have an actual psychosis that is evident as you are compelled to try and convince strangers on the Internet you're some big, winning gambler when the exact opposite is true.

I can't even fathom how fucking sad your life really is.

Why did you stop posting picks after going winless in 3 sports?

why have you run from 9 heads up bets with me?

 

[festeringZit]

It's that way because there are a few different reasons that makes this a stupid bet for me.

I win 13 dimes and much loses 59 dimes.....here's a thousand mich....you out capped me this year. Great job.

You are really dumb. The fact that people have tried to explain it to you for hours and not a bit of it has been comprehended by
you is astounding.

If you think you are a better capper than Mich, you should take every capping bet with him, because it is +EV. If you don't think you are, then you shouldn't, because it is -EV. Past results have nothing to do with it, NOTHING, ZERO, NADA.

 

[Ricboff]

But this isn't "giving away money"

The analogy falls apart right there.

how so?

he KNOWS he's in outlier territory. He's at , say 75% ytd and is a career 55% capper. He know's Mich is solid and having an unfortunate terrible first half. WHY the fuck bet that?

kinda like the mutual fund manager who historically beats the index in 10-, 15-, 20- yrs, Yet ytd is losing. I'd BET WITH him going forward.


historical data does not predict future gains. IT DOES give us a view, some kind of map

 

[Acebb]

The real question here is can Margot Robbie afford to vacation in Virginia Beach like other never-have-to-work-again millionaires?

 

[PatsFan1283]

Actually, to say someone is a 55% capper is a huge fallacy in itself since there are so many variables in play and things change all the time.

What is +EV yesterday is not necessarily +EV tomorrow.

Yeah, I say that to RicBoff in this thread a few pages ago. Obviously the posts in here added up fast so people probably missed it.

That is also why I say theoretical because nothing is set in stone given the fluidity of sports betting markets and the sports themselves.

Post #98

Even w/ all that, it is still good for the gambler to estimate what their edge is for bet sizing purposes. Obviously most overestimate but you get the idea.

 

[festeringZit]

The funniest part, is Vitterd saying over and over that because Michelangelo has been such an abysmally shitting capper over
the first half of the year, that actually is to his advantage.

BWHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAH.

And he actually believes that!

 

[vitterd]

Ya it's math vs feelings. One is objective one is subjective.

its more of a common sense thing. Mich is not a mush....he will come back to his normal standard.

But his year still won't be anywhere near mine in baseball. It makes no sense at all to make a 0-0 bet with a guy I destroyed in the first half. It's just throwing away a 30 length lead

 

[Ricboff]

That's a still from her character in Suicide Squad.

k.....take it all back.......

 

[vitterd]

You are really dumb. The fact that people have tried to explain it to you for hours and not a bit of it has been comprehended by
you is astounding.

If you think you are a better capper than Mich, you should take every capping bet with him, because it is +EV. If you don't think you are, then you shouldn't, because it is -EV. Past results have nothing to do with it, NOTHING, ZERO, NADA.

And you see other people that agree with me

 

[festeringZit]

how so?

He knows he's in outlier territory. He's at , say 75% ytd and is a career 55% capper. He know's mich is solid and having an unfortunate terrible first half. Why the fuck bet that?

Kinda like the mutual fund manager who historically beats the index in 10-, 15-, 20- yrs, yet ytd is losing. I'd bet with him going forward.


Historical data does not predict future gains. It does give us a view, some kind of map

Sigh.

 

[Acebb]

If you think you are a better capper than Mich, you should take every capping bet with him, because it is +EV. If you don't think you are, then you shouldn't, because it is -EV. Past results have nothing to do with it, NOTHING, ZERO, NADA.

It is hilarious he keeps repeating "I smashed him in the first half!!" as some sort of response.

This guy is a fucking dumb as a brick.

For someone so far in the "positive", a mere $1,000 sure means a lot.

 

[Ricboff]

Actually, to say someone is a 55% capper is a huge fallacy in itself since there are so many variables in play and things change all the time.

What is +EV yesterday is not necessarily +EV tomorrow.

OF COURSE!

we base our decisions daily on reputation, historical data. Hope you are well Joe

a black swan is around the corner........

 

[festeringZit]

And you see other people that agree with me

Yes. And they are 100% wrong too.

 

[vitterd]

The funniest part, is Vitterd saying over and over that because Michelangelo has been such an abysmally shitting capper over
the first half of the year, that actually is to his advantage.

BWHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAH.

And he actually believes that!

Rich explained this a page or so back. It's obviously not s smart bet for me for various reasons.....NFL trends, Wabash and others have tried to show you this.