Poster Michelangelo wants to bet Vitterd $1K on baseball for the rest of the season. Vit won't take the bet. Why?

[Ricboff]

Sigh.

thanks. I know you're very smart. Hope you have a great day

 

[festeringZit]

its more of a common sense thing. Mich is not a mush....he will come back to his normal standard.

But his year still won't be anywhere near mine in baseball. It makes no sense at all to make a 0-0 bet with a guy i destroyed in the first half. It's just throwing away a 30 length lead

omg.

 

[drpugilist]

vit you want to take the bet, im almost willing to split it with you

 

[vitterd]

It is hilarious he keeps repeating "I smashed him in the first half!!" as some sort of response.

This guy is a fucking dumb as a brick.

For someone so far in the "positive", a mere $1,000 sure means a lot.

Why did you stop posting picks after going winless in 3 sports?

why have you run from 9 bets heads up against me?

"if you have money what's throwing away a thousand dollars"--acebbface)(*^%

 

[vitterd]

vit you want to take the bet, im almost willing to split it with you

I wouldn't take the bet if somebody put up all the money. It's just not smart or fair.

I will beat him easily for the full season.....even if he beats me in the second half. No smart gambler would make such a bet.

 

[drpugilist]

I wouldn't take the bet if somebody put up all the money. It's just not smart or fair.

I will beat him easily for the full season.....even if he beats me in the second half. No smart gambler would make such a bet.

if youre better than him, youre better than him. otherwise, why not just stop betting mlb the rest of the way? that would be the smart thing wouldnt it?

 

[Acebb]

"if you have money what's throwing away a thousand dollars"--acebbface)(*^%

I love how you put that in quotes as if I said it, coward.

It is fucking hilarious you're now pretending that this is some sort of give-away and not a contest.

Again, for such a high-roller, you sure are terrified to part with $1,000. Why, it is almost as if you aren't a high roller or something.

 

[PatsFan1283]

how so?

he KNOWS he's in outlier territory. He's at , say 75% ytd and is a career 55% capper. He know's Mich is solid and having an unfortunate terrible first half. WHY the fuck bet that?

kinda like the mutual fund manager who historically beats the index in 10-, 15-, 20- yrs, Yet ytd is losing. I'd BET WITH him going forward.


historical data does not predict future gains. IT DOES give us a view, some kind of map

If he thinks he is better than him then he will be +EV to beat him from now until the rest of the season. If he doesn't think he is better then he shouldn't do it.

Obviously taking factors like trustworthiness to pay, convenience of paying/getting paid, etc out of the equation.

 

[festeringZit]

I wouldn't take the bet if somebody put up all the money. It's just not smart or fair.

I will beat him easily for the full season.....even if he beats me in the second half. No smart gambler would make such a bet.

ROFL. Wheeeee!!!!

 

[vitterd]

if youre better than him, youre better than him. otherwise, why not just stop betting mlb the rest of the way? that would be the smart thing wouldnt it?

I am better than him but not by the margin the 1st half indicates. Chances are great we will tighten up. I may still beat him in 2nd half but on the chance he wins by 1 dollar.....I'm not paying him a dime and giving him the win...especially if I win the year by 60 dimes.

Its just not smart.

 

[festeringZit]

If he thinks he is better than him then he will be +EV to beat him from now until the rest of the season. If he doesn't think he is better then he shouldn't do it.

Obviously taking factors like trustworthiness to pay, convenience of paying/getting paid, etc out of the equation.

Bingo.

 

[vitterd]

I love how you put that in quotes as if I said it, coward.

It is fucking hilarious you're now pretending that this is some sort of give-away and not a contest.

Again, for such a high-roller, you sure are terrified to part with $1,000. Why, it is almost as if you aren't a high roller or something.

Why did you stop posting picks after going winless in 3 sports?

hysterical how you won't answer this.

 

[festeringZit]

I am better than him but not by the margin the 1st half indicates. Chances are great we will tighten up. I may still beat him in 2nd half but on the chance he wins by 1 dollar.....I'm not paying him a dime and giving him the win...especially if I win the year by 60 dimes.

Its just not smart.

"It's just not smart" Wheeeeeeee!!!!!

 

[PatsFan1283]

Zit, other than your hatred for Vitterd I'm not sure why you expressed such shock at his statements.

People say that stuff in almost every gambling math thread there is around here. And other gambling/sports message boards would likely have similar sentiments expressed regarding streaks, regression, probability.

 

[MantisToboggan]

No smart gambler would make such a bet.

This comment is beyond ridiculous.

 

[vitterd]

If he thinks he is better than him then he will be +EV to beat him from now until the rest of the season. If he doesn't think he is better then he shouldn't do it.

Obviously taking factors like trustworthiness to pay, convenience of paying/getting paid, etc out of the equation.

I am better.....but it's silly to think I would give him a contest win if I outperform by miles over the full years. If he eeks out a bigger profit than me over the 2nd half....it doesn't represent who had the better season...and for betting purposes....everybody uses season records here and most everywhere.

 

[MantisToboggan]

I am better.....but it's silly to think I would give him a contest win if I outperform by miles over the full years. If he eeks out a bigger profit than me over the 2nd half....it doesn't represent who had the better season...and for betting purposes....everybody uses season records here and most everywhere.

If you think you're better then you are passing up free money. No "smart bettor" is passing up free money.

 

[PatsFan1283]

I actually understand what you are saying.

From an ego/reputation standpoint, you don't think him beating you over 2 months would be legitimate and you want it to be over 6 months.

That makes sense, but it has nothing to do with math or probability. You probably could've stated it better.

 

[Ricboff]

If he thinks he is better than him then he will be +EV to beat him from now until the rest of the season. If he doesn't think he is better then he shouldn't do it.



Obviously taking factors like trustworthiness to pay, convenience of paying/getting paid, etc out of the equation.

AND he has surveyed the information. Used historical data and made his call. He was kind to ego and pushed her away. Not bad , eh?


he opened himself to start of season bets , $1,000. You in?

 

[vitterd]

This comment is beyond ridiculous.

You would have to be an idiot to make a bet where you outperform the guy by 60 dimes over a season and you lose the wager. I mean, a retard would not make a bet with the probability of those results.