Poster Michelangelo wants to bet Vitterd $1K on baseball for the rest of the season. Vit won't take the bet. Why?

[wabashwonders]

The funny thing is, Vitterd claims he's some poker guru that has won millions at poker, and he's retired from poker (blah blah, yeah right).

But this concept is a basic one in poker as well. Say there is a donkey at your table in a long tournament, he's a bad player, but for some reason you keep getting in heads up battles with him, and you keep sucking out on him in big pots - like 10 times over the last couple days.

You don't then get yourself in a situation where you know he's got his money in bad, and he's gone all-in - and you think to yourself:
"Wow, I've got a really good hand, but he's at an advantage because I'm on such a hot streak against him, I better fold..."

It's such fucking stupid thinking. These are independent events, and the past results have 0 bearing on any future results. How many times do I have to say it?

Based on this comparison you are saying Mich is a bad handicapper, which he isn't. He is just on a bad streak which in all probability will change over second half of season. The probability of both these guys continuing on the streaks they are on(Vit winning at a high % and Mich losing at a high %) is not very high. I understand Vits logic but I also understand the principles of probability and that's the reason he won't take the bet. I think you understand them too but are refusing to admit it because of your hatred towards Vit. I'm looking forward to the head to head in football between these two.

 

[festeringZit]

Zit, other than your hatred for Vitterd I'm not sure why you expressed such shock at his statements.

People say that stuff in almost every gambling math thread there is around here. And other gambling/sports message boards would likely have similar sentiments expressed regarding streaks, regression, probability.

I honestly thought that there might be one or two people that couldn't grasp such a basic concept. I'm surprised at some of the others.

But what is even more astounding, is that even if you try to explain it at a junior-high level, they still don't get it. I learned this shit
in junior-high school, and my kids understand it.

 

[PatsFan1283]

Wabashwonders, him not taking the bet has nothing to do with principles of probability!

https://www.amazon.com/Statistics-D...TF8&qid=1469111746&sr=8-2&keywords=statistics

 

[festeringZit]

Based on this comparison you are saying Mich is a bad handicapper, which he isn't. He is just on a bad streak which in all probability will change over second half of season. The probability of both these guys continuing on the streaks they are on(Vit winning at a high % and Mich losing at a high %) is not very high. I understand Vits logic but I also understand the principles of probability and that's the reason he won't take the bet. I think you understand them too but are refusing to admit it because of your hatred towards Vit. I'm looking forward to the head to head in football between these two.

Um, there is NOTHING I'm refusing to admit, because this is basic probability theory. Very basic.

To approach a bet involving independent events, looking at past results is wrong, and stupid. If Vit feels he's the better capper,
then the bet at the beginning of the year is +EV, a bet in the middle of the year is +EV a bet any time during the year is +EV, it doesn't matter
what the results were last week, last year, or the last 5 years.

 

[MantisToboggan]

You would have to be an idiot to make a bet where you outperform the guy by 60 dimes over a season and you lose the wager. I mean, a retard would not make a bet with the probability of those results.

Pats told you this earlier but it bears repeating.. The "season" is just an arbitrary interval.

 

[MantisToboggan]

Based on this comparison you are saying Mich is a bad handicapper, which he isn't. He is just on a bad streak which in all probability will change over second half of season. The probability of both these guys continuing on the streaks they are on(Vit winning at a high % and Mich losing at a high %) is not very high. I understand Vits logic but I also understand the principles of probability and that's the reason he won't take the bet. I think you understand them too but are refusing to admit it because of your hatred towards Vit. I'm looking forward to the head to head in football between these two.

The principles of probability tell Vit to TAKE the bet.

 

[vitterd]

Pats told you this earlier but it bears repeating.. The "season" is just an arbitrary interval.

Sigh. Everybody uses records based on a full season.

It is real simple. I am the better capper.... I can lose the 2nd half and still be shown to be the better capper over the full season( it's not just some number.....it's what most people use to base their records and profit for the year)

why would I start over at 0-0 for the season? Why would I give him a thousand dollars based on 2 months when I outperform him for the overall season?

 

[MantisToboggan]

Sigh. Everybody uses records based on a full season.

It is real simple. I am the better capper.... I can lose the 2nd half and still be shown to be the better capper over the full season( it's not just some number.....it's what most people use to base their records and profit for the year)

why would I start over at 0-0 for the season? Why would I give him a thousand dollars based on 2 months when I outperform him for the overall season?

It's just an arbitrary interval. Let's say Mich hit 57% in 2014 and 2015 while you hit 52% in those years. Who's a better capper then? You with your 70 to 35 this year, or him with at 2-1 lead in "seasons"?

 

[BleedingPurple]

How many of you guys wager baseball? I mean for an entire season? Baseball is a different type of grind and unless you are Pennywise there are going to be many ups and downs in a season. When you are going good your team gets the double plays and the 2 out hits but when it's bad your team strands bases loaded with nobody out every inning it seems. I wish Vit would have taken the bet, but I totally understand why he didn't. At another site there is a mock Hilton but its a different name but it's 3 picks with one being worth 2 points. EVERY YEAR there are multiple guys who start hot and start cold but almost always the hot guy gets colder and the cold guy get hotter. Why? Who the hell knows but that's how it works even though math models would say it shouldn't happen but IT DOES!

Let's get to the root of the thread. Mr. Self righteous religious man making a big deal about a guy not taking the bet for whatever reason he has but but but will accept the bets at start of season so what's the big deal? The big
Deal is Zit has an angry hard on and starts another thread bashing on Vit. This is a non issue, dumb thread, with responses from guys who probably don't understand the summer grind

 

[vitterd]

It's just an arbitrary interval. Let's say Mich hit 57% in 2014 and 2015 while you hit 52% in those years. Who's a better capper then? You with your 70 to 35 this year, or him with at 2-1 lead in "seasons"?

Yeah, that's not what I'm trying to say. These types of bets are not gonna based on multiple seasons. I'm talking about this year. A 2 month contest doesn't tell you what a full
season does. I'm not willing to pay him if I outperform him by such a large margin over a full season because he beats me over a much shorter period.

 

[Ricboff]

Pats told you this earlier but it bears repeating.. The "season" is just an arbitrary interval.

the season is where the data originates . start to finish . Like the mutual fund manager--you HAVE to define the time metric. His , say, 75% ytd is grossly in outlier territory (start to finish..for the mutual fund manager its Jan to Dec) will revert to the mean. He's not comfy/ So he is saying, 'fuck off, see ya in March..... Geesus, it's not cards...wtf. Why do some mutual fund managers win and others don't?--not a random act

 

[PatsFan1283]

In post #198 I think I state why Vitt won't take the bet better than he does. It isn't about EV or anything, he just doesn't want Mich to get a win off of him over a small sample size.

Winning and losing bets to him on this site is about more than money because of his feuds and the ridicule he feels he would get if he loses. So if he is going to endure that, he would rather lose a bet he sees as more legitimate.

 

[MantisToboggan]

the season is where the data originates . start to finish . Like the mutual fund manager--you HAVE to define the time metric. His , say, 75% ytd is grossly in outlier territory (start to finish..for the mutual fund manager its Jan to Dec) will revert to the mean. He's not comfy/ So he is saying, 'fuck off, see ya in March..... Geesus, it's not cards...wtf. Why do some mutual fund managers win and others don't?--not a random act

Sorry, man, maybe I'm an idiot but I'm not sure what point you are trying to make here.

 

[Ricboff]

that's right.

based on data from season to season, he wants to start at the start. Do you blame him?

ego does more to harm. We don't even know each other

 

[MantisToboggan]

Yeah, that's not what I'm trying to say. These types of bets are not gonna based on multiple seasons. I'm talking about this year. A 2 month contest doesn't tell you what a full
season does. I'm not willing to pay him if I outperform him by such a large margin over a full season because he beats me over a much shorter period.

You are definitely entitled to take that stand. It's your money, time, etc. I'd be a jackass to take issue with that. My issue is when you say things like "no smart bettor would take this bet".

 

[vitterd]

In post #198 I think I state why Vitt won't take the bet better than he does. It isn't about EV or anything, he just doesn't want Mich to get a win off of him over a small sample size.

Winning and losing bets to him on this site is about more than money because of his feuds and the ridicule he feels he would get if he loses. So if he is going to endure that, he would rather lose a bet he sees as more legitimate.

Thats accurate.

I'm not willing to pay him if he wins over a 2 month period while I beat him over the longer haul by a wide margin.

I think mich is a decent capper and he will probably come back in the next 2 months.

I feel like I'm giving up a huge lead if I take the bet. I'm not throwing away money or listening to non stop ridicule if I don't think it's based on accuracy of the entire season.

 

[Ricboff]

Sorry, man, maybe I'm an idiot but I'm not sure what point you are trying to make here.

k, you're not an idiot. Smart, good guy


how do mutual fund managers assess themselves? do they define a time frame?

 

[vitterd]

You are definitely entitled to take that stand. It's your money, time, etc. I'd be a jackass to take issue with that. My issue is when you say things like "no smart bettor would take this bet".

Well, I don't think a smart bettor would take a bet like that considering what's taken place the first 3.5 months of the season. If we start from day one in baseball......he can't win at this point. I know you don't think it matters but I do. I think mich is capable of coming back to his normal ways over the past few years which would be tough for me to win

 

[festeringZit]

How many of you guys wager baseball? I mean for an entire season? Baseball is a different type of grind and unless you are Pennywise there are going to be many ups and downs in a season. When you are going good your team gets the double plays and the 2 out hits but when it's bad your team strands bases loaded with nobody out every inning it seems. I wish Vit would have taken the bet, but I totally understand why he didn't. At another site there is a mock Hilton but its a different name but it's 3 picks with one being worth 2 points. EVERY YEAR there are multiple guys who start hot and start cold but almost always the hot guy gets colder and the cold guy get hotter. Why? Who the hell knows but that's how it works even though math models would say it shouldn't happen but IT DOES!

Let's get to the root of the thread. Mr. Self righteous religious man making a big deal about a guy not taking the bet for whatever reason he has but but but will accept the bets at start of season so what's the big deal? The big
Deal is Zit has an angry hard on and starts another thread bashing on Vit. This is a non issue, dumb thread, with responses from guys who probably don't understand the summer grind

Let's get to the root, you're bringing in your politics and stupidity, and bias in here. This is a math issue, and you clearly don't have the basic chops to comprehend. Go away unless you have something valuable to add to the discussion, which
you clearly do not.

 

[MantisToboggan]

k, you're not an idiot. Smart, good guy


how do mutual fund managers assess themselves? do they define a time frame?

Okay, now I understand what you're saying. Ya, you define a time frame, but whether they start today and go to next year's all star break or the beginning of next season and go to the end won't change the expected results.