Poster Michelangelo wants to bet Vitterd $1K on baseball for the rest of the season. Vit won't take the bet. Why?

[MantisToboggan]

Well, I don't think a smart bettor would take a bet like that considering what's taken place the first 3.5 months of the season. If we start from day one in baseball......he can't win at this point. I know you don't think it matters but I do. I think mich is capable of coming back to his normal ways over the past few years which would be tough for me to win

Alright, I can't do this all day. We'll have to agree to disagree. The basic concept here is that I believe in math and you believe in your feelings. Fair enough. We move on.

 

[PatsFan1283]

k, you're not an idiot. Smart, good guy


how do mutual fund managers assess themselves? do they define a time frame?

If two mutual fund managers were going to bet on who will have the better year, and 1 went -10% last year and 1 went +10%, if the guy who went +10% thought he was the fund manager, then he should still make the bet.

 

[BleedingPurple]

Let's get to the root, you're bringing in your politics and stupidity, and bias in here. This is a math issue, and you clearly don't have the basic chops to comprehend. Go away unless you have something valuable to add to the discussion, which
you clearly do not.

I'm not bringing any politics in here, it's your politics that started this thread. Do you wager on a daily basis? Do you wager baseball on a daily basis? I understand the math, but Trends and Ricboff see it my way as well. The big question is why is this such a big deal to you? Why do you start so many threads with Vit's name in it? You look like a fool. He is going to take him on to start the season. I really wish Vit would have taken the bet though just to follow it.

 

[vitterd]

Alright, I can't do this all day. We'll have to agree to disagree. The basic concept here is that I believe in math and you believe in your feelings. Fair enough. We move on.

Thats not at all true. It's probable he won't continue to lose at such a rapid rate and I won't continue to win a such a rapid rate. That isnt even the main reason. That's just one of them.

Paying a a guy for a 2 month sample when you massacre him over a 4 month sample is simply not smart gambling. And it's not s difficult concept. That isn't "feeling" it's just common sense.

Obviously, other people can see the same reasoning I do....so let's not pretend I'm on my own in this situation.

 

[MantisToboggan]

Thats not at all true. It's probable he won't continue to lose at such a rapid rate and I won't continue to win a such a rapid rate. That isnt even the main reason. That's just one of them.

Paying a a guy for a 2 month sample when you massacre him over a 4 month sample is simply not smart gambling. And it's not s difficult concept. That isn't "feeling" it's just common sense.

Obviously, other people can see the same reasoning I do....so let's not pretend I'm on my own in this situation.

Yes, it's probable that you will go back to 55% and he will go back to 53% (meaning you still win).

Don't take this the wrong way, but other people agreeing with you simply means there are other people who don't follow/believe in the math.

 

[vitterd]

I'm not bringing any politics in here, it's your politics that started this thread. Do you wager on a daily basis? Do you wager baseball on a daily basis? I understand the math, but Trends and Ricboff see it my way as well. The big question is why is this such a big deal to you? Why do you start so many threads with Vit's name in it? You look like a fool. He is going to take him on to start the season. I really wish Vit would have taken the bet though just to follow it.

There have been 2 bets at this forum that I've decided to skip. Both times Zit came in calling me a pussy. I've accepted and offered many bets. Has he? Has he ever called Acebb or Joe a pussy for never accepting one bet of the 9 I offered?

he starts polls, threads about me all the time. He looks like an idiot but at a place where idiots are King....most don't know to tell him.

 

[Ricboff]

Okay, now I understand what you're saying. Ya, you define a time frame, but whether they start today and go to next year's all star break or the beginning of next season and go to the end won't change the expected results.

i hear ya. I guess ya gotta make a call;

Mr X brings in 55% historically yr in and yr out (satr. Mid-season ahe's 75% ytd

Mr B brings in 53% historically yr in and yr out. Mid -season he's 35%



who you betting on, for the second half?

 

[PatsFan1283]

Mr X...Unless his microbiome is fucked, then future long-term consistency would be in question.

Healthy body, healthy mind

 

[MantisToboggan]

i hear ya. I guess ya gotta make a call;

Mr X brings in 55% historically yr in and yr out . Mid-season and he's 75% ytd

Mr B brings in 53% historically yr in and yr out. Mid -season he's 35%



who you betting on, for the second half?

Math says you go with Mr X. You won't win every time but you will win more often than not.

 

[vitterd]

Yes, it's probable that you will go back to 55% and he will go back to 53% (meaning you still win).

Don't take this the wrong way, but other people agreeing with you simply means there are other people who don't follow/believe in the math.

It's also very possible that he hits 55 and I hit 53.....which means he wins over 2 months by a small margin and I win for the entire year by a LARGE margin. Which means it's a dumb bet for me to make. I lose a thousand and listen to the usual idiots saying I lost.....all the while mich loses 50 dimes on the season and I win 10 dimes. Make sense?

 

[SheriffJoe]

Alright, I can't do this all day. We'll have to agree to disagree. The basic concept here is that I believe in math and you believe in your feelings. Fair enough. We move on.

Bingo.

What would you expect? He's a liberal.

All liberals base their beliefs on feelings, rather than objective facts, math, reason etc.

No matter how many creative and dumbed-down ways you try and explain it to him, he will never get it. EVER.

I'm scared to enter this bet because the gambling gods will even things out or something! :missingte

 

[MantisToboggan]

It's also very possible that he hits 55 and I hit 53.....which means he wins over 2 months by a small margin and I win for the entire year by a LARGE margin. Which means it's a dumb bet for me to make. I lose a thousand and listen to the usual idiots saying I lost.....all the while mich loses 50 dimes on the season and I win 10 dimes. Make sense?

Hah, well ya it's possible that you lose. Find me a bet where there's no possibility of losing.

But no that doesn't make sense. It's still not a dumb bet. You're getting better than expected odds.

 

[Ricboff]

Mr X...Unless his microbiome is fucked, then future long-term consistency would be in question.

Healthy body, healthy mind

cheersgif

and healthy mind, healthy body

that 55% and 53% data is from March to Sept. Year based . Bullish engulfing with massive volume?...

 

[vitterd]

Hah, well ya it's possible that you lose. Find me a bet where there's no possibility of losing.

But no that doesn't make sense. It's still not a dumb bet. You're getting better than expected odds.

Oh boy.....ok.

What about this math ...he wins a 2 month sample by one dollar....I win 4 month sample by 60,000 dollars. I pay him 1,000 and he is the winner of the contest and the better capper for the baseball season. How about that? Seem like common sense to you?

 

[PatsFan1283]

The Spurs might start the season with a better record than the Clippers, if Doc Rivers calls up Popovich and says let's bet the 2nd half of the season on who will have a better record

Will Popovich bet it? If not, why?

 

[MantisToboggan]

Oh boy.....ok.

What about this math ...he wins a 2 month sample by one dollar....I win 4 month sample by 60,000 dollars. I pay him 1,000 and he is the winner of the contest and the better capper for the baseball season. How about that? Seem like common sense to you?

Again that's based on feelings not math. You are entitled to make a decision based on feelings but you're ignoring math. I don't know why you refuse to admit that. I don't even blame you for making that decision.

 

[vitterd]

The Spurs might start the season with a better record than the Clippers, if Doc Rivers calls up Popovich and says let's bet the 2nd half of the season on who will have a better record

Will Popovich bet it? If not, why?

This really doesn't compare though.

 

[BleedingPurple]

The Spurs might start the season with a better record than the Clippers, if Doc Rivers calls up Popovich and says let's bet the 2nd half of the season on who will have a better record

Will Popovich bet it? If not, why?

Apples to Oranges there. What if he he says let's bet the the second half of the season on who will have the better record ATS. Will Popovich bet it? If not, why?

 

[wabashwonders]

The principles of probability tell Vit to TAKE the bet.

So you think the probability of Vit continuing on a torrid pace and Mich continuing on his losing streak is high?

 

[MantisToboggan]

Apples to Oranges there. What if he he says let's bet the the second half of the season on who will have the better record ATS. Will Popovich bet it? If not, why?

Hah, oh man. The point is the Spurs are better so he takes the bet. Same as Vit claims he is better.