Poster Michelangelo wants to bet Vitterd $1K on baseball for the rest of the season. Vit won't take the bet. Why?

[MantisToboggan]

So you think the probability of Vit continuing on a torrid pace and Mich continuing on his losing streak is high?

No. As I have said 20 times already, Vit will likely revert back to his 55% and Mich to his 53%.

 

[vitterd]

Again that's based on feelings not math. You are entitled to make a decision based on feelings but you're ignoring math. I don't know why you refuse to admit that. I don't even blame you for making that decision.

It's because I believe mich will probably make a run based on his past performance. If a guy hits 51 percent for a few years.....my guess is he will eventually get somewhat close to that number after a full season. Which would give him a better two months than me but not s better overall season. Its about regressing to the mean and I don't think you can compare that to how many times a coin will flip on heads.

All the factors together makes it a dumb bet for me in my opinion....I think it's obvious as do some other posters

 

[festeringZit]

There have been 2 bets at this forum that I've decided to skip. Both times Zit came in calling me a pussy. I've accepted and offered many bets. Has he? Has he ever called Acebb or Joe a pussy for never accepting one bet of the 9 I offered?

he starts polls, threads about me all the time. He looks like an idiot but at a place where idiots are King....most don't know to tell him.

Lies.

I'm calling you out on this one, because you said some really retarded things, comically stupid.

The astute posters in here see it very clearly.

 

[MantisToboggan]

It's because I believe mich will probably make a run based on his past performance. If a guy hits 51 percent for a few years.....my guess is he will eventually get somewhat close to that number after a full season. Which would give him a better two months than me but not s better overall season. Its about regressing to the mean and I don't think you can compare that to how many times a coin will flip on heads.

All the factors together makes it a dumb bet for me in my opinion....I think it's obvious as do some other posters

Regressing to the mean doesn't mean what you think it means.

 

[vitterd]

No. As I have said 20 times already, Vit will likely revert back to his 55% and Mich to his 53%.

Exactly...which means I have a huge winning year and he had a huge losing year.

Then I pay him a thousand and he is the winner of a baseball handicapping contest. Silly

 

[SheriffJoe]

Lies.

I'm calling you out on this one, because you said some really retarded things, comically stupid.

The astute posters in here see it very clearly.

"smart bettors understand why I'm doing this" ointer:

 

[MantisToboggan]

Exactly...which means I have a huge winning year and he had a huge losing year.

Then I pay him a thousand and he is the winner of a baseball handicapping contest. Silly

Hah, no. It means he pays you 1,000 when he hits 53% in the 2nd half and you hit 55%. Wow.

Congrats, Vit. My 5K post was me repeating myself to you for 25th time today.

 

[vitterd]

Lies.

I'm calling you out on this one, because you said some really retarded things, comically stupid.

The astute posters in here see it very clearly.

Call out what? It's true. I have countless bets in here and you never say a word. You never comment on Acebb and Joe who decline all bets I offer. Why not? Just a comment when I decline a bet for good reason.

 

[vitterd]

Hah, no. It means he pays you 1,000 when he hits 53% in the 2nd half and you hit 55%. Wow.

Congrats, Vit. My 5K post was me repeating myself to you for 25th time today.

Uh.....no. I meant He hits 55 and I hit 53 he wins the bet. I win huge on year and he loses huge but I'm paying him. Huh? No way I'd make s bet like that.

 

[boss415]

:hikitty::hikitty::hikitty::hikitty:!~))!!~))!!~))!!~))!

 

[PatsFan1283]

Apples to Oranges there. What if he he says let's bet the the second half of the season on who will have the better record ATS. Will Popovich bet it? If not, why?

Great point, I didn't think of that.

In all seriousness, I wouldn't even know how to respond to that.

 

[MantisToboggan]

Uh.....no. He hits 55 and I hit 53 he wins the bet. I win huge on year and he loses huge but I'm paying him. Huh? No way I'd make s bet like that.

Hah, no. If you are a career 55%er and he is a career 53%er the odds are you go 55% and he goes 53% in the second half.

 

[festeringZit]

Call out what? It's true. I have countless bets in here and you never say a word. You never comment on Acebb and Joe who decline all bets I offer. Why not? Just a comment when I decline a bet for good reason.

Actually I did ask Ace multiple times why he didn't take certain bets that you offered, and I offered to take the bets, but you said it was only for Ace.

 

[Ricboff]

No. As I have said 20 times already, Vit will likely revert back to his 55% and Mich to his 53%.

what is 55%/53% based on? the next role? this cards?

it's based on a season. Every season , on average, Vit wins 55% of his bets. April to Sept . He's 75% ytd. You bettign WITH HIM OR NOT?....at this point?......sounds like you're betting against him, as he will 'revert to the mean'. You using historical data to influence a future decision?

 

[vitterd]

Hah, no. If you are a career 55%er and he is a career 53%er the odds are you go 55% and he goes 53% in the second half.

These aren't really accurate numbers. Just using them as example. A 2 month sample is not as accurate as a full season shows.

Again, I'm not paying a guy that loses 60 dimes while I win 13 dimes and he gets credit for a contest win and a thousand bucks.

Say it out loud and then think about. Vit wins 13k, Mich loses 59k. Vit pays mich 1,000 for his contest win.

 

[vitterd]

Actually I did ask Ace multiple times why he didn't take certain bets that you offered, and I offered to take the bets, but you said it was only for Ace.

Ive been searching for your threads about Acebb not accepting bets but can't find them.

You really gonna say your once or twice asking Acebb if he's accepting my bet is the same thing as what you do to me?

you have started how many threads with my name in it? I've lost track.

Ive accepted countless bets here....you commented on the 2 I didn't. But the 9 times I offered acebb and Joe....you ask " ace why won't you accept". Yeah, really calling them out there.

 

[MantisToboggan]

These aren't really accurate numbers. Just using them as example. A 2 month sample is not as accurate as a full season shows.

Again, I'm not paying a guy that loses 60 dimes while I win 13 dimes and he gets credit for a contest win and a thousand bucks.

Say it out loud and then think about. Vit wins 13k, Mich loses 59k. Vit pays mich 1,000 for his contest win.

That's fine, but the odds are that outcome will not happen. You're making a personal choice but don't cite math or regression to the mean as your reason.

 

[boss415]

!~))!!~))!

These aren't really accurate numbers. Just using them as example. A 2 month sample is not as accurate as a full season shows.

Again, I'm not paying a guy that loses 60 dimes while I win 13 dimes and he gets credit for a contest win and a thousand bucks.

Say it out loud and then think about. Vit wins 13k, Mich loses 59k. Vit pays mich 1,000 for his contest win.

Stop trying to act like this is logical. You are a chicken . PERIOD

 

[vitterd]

!~))!!~))!

Stop trying to act like this is logical. You are a chicken . PERIOD

Here comes the troll. I've read your threads about gambling....you understand less than Acebb

 

[vitterd]

what is 55%/53% based on? the next role? this cards?

it's based on a season. Every season , on average, Vit wins 55% of his bets. April to Sept . He's 75% ytd. You bettign WITH HIM OR NOT?....at this point?......sounds like you're betting against him, as he will 'revert to the mean'. You using historical data to influence a future decision?

Some people will get this but some won't.