Will be on the road heading to Lexington tomorrow so posting these plays now for Wednesday's card.
race 4...#7 Rachel Wall 6-1 ML Tries the turf for third time after a 2nd(losing by a head) and a 5th beaten less than a length at Monmouth and Delaware in her last 2 starts. Cuts back to a mile from 1 1/16 and adds first time Lasix.
race 7...#7 Lily's Dream 6-1 ML Ran 3rd last month in a stakes at Kentucky Downs. Horses that have been running there have faired well so far at Keeneland. First time Lasix.
race 8...#10 He'll Pay 15-1 ML Improved last out at Monmouth with first time Lasix running 4th, beaten just 4 lengths. Bullet work on Sunday over the Keeneland track suggests he may be ready at big odds.
race 4...#7 Rachel Wall 6-1 ML Tries the turf for third time after a 2nd(losing by a head) and a 5th beaten less than a length at Monmouth and Delaware in her last 2 starts. Cuts back to a mile from 1 1/16 and adds first time Lasix.
race 7...#7 Lily's Dream 6-1 ML Ran 3rd last month in a stakes at Kentucky Downs. Horses that have been running there have faired well so far at Keeneland. First time Lasix.
race 8...#10 He'll Pay 15-1 ML Improved last out at Monmouth with first time Lasix running 4th, beaten just 4 lengths. Bullet work on Sunday over the Keeneland track suggests he may be ready at big odds.
Recopied from website. Def enjoying the few quiet days this week. Won 12.75 in the poker game last night 
Touts exist to sell you games so you give them your money. I'm here to tell you the truth. Someone will win this game. And it will either go over or stay under the 5.5. But the first question I have to ask myself when handicapping any sporting event is.... Do I have an advantage with teamA or teamB? Unfortunately here we have too many advantages and too many handicaps. Cole is a great pitcher. However the top 2 pitchers in MLB outdistancing the rest this year in dominating fashion are Arrieta and Greinke. On a sidenote if Johnny Cueto became for KC what they had envisioned, and the 3-headed monster in that bullpen were all heathy, then size up the rings! Pitching rules right now. I've always fought a battle with myself when capping MLB. How much weight do I gave to starting pitching? And how much weight to team stats? Good Stat? Pirates at Home, 3rd game or later of Homestand = 76-26 since May 2014. Bad Stat? Cubs Away, and they did not play on the previous day = 7-28. So Pirates, right? NO! Arrieta is pitching for the Cubs. And experience has taught me never to bet a game UNDER a number below 7. So there you go, all the reasons why we're passing again tonight. See you tomorrow! P.S. The Pirates lost their 1Game Playoff last year at Home 8-0 to the team that wins the WS every other year, SF.
Touts exist to sell you games so you give them your money. I'm here to tell you the truth. Someone will win this game. And it will either go over or stay under the 5.5. But the first question I have to ask myself when handicapping any sporting event is.... Do I have an advantage with teamA or teamB? Unfortunately here we have too many advantages and too many handicaps. Cole is a great pitcher. However the top 2 pitchers in MLB outdistancing the rest this year in dominating fashion are Arrieta and Greinke. On a sidenote if Johnny Cueto became for KC what they had envisioned, and the 3-headed monster in that bullpen were all heathy, then size up the rings! Pitching rules right now. I've always fought a battle with myself when capping MLB. How much weight do I gave to starting pitching? And how much weight to team stats? Good Stat? Pirates at Home, 3rd game or later of Homestand = 76-26 since May 2014. Bad Stat? Cubs Away, and they did not play on the previous day = 7-28. So Pirates, right? NO! Arrieta is pitching for the Cubs. And experience has taught me never to bet a game UNDER a number below 7. So there you go, all the reasons why we're passing again tonight. See you tomorrow! P.S. The Pirates lost their 1Game Playoff last year at Home 8-0 to the team that wins the WS every other year, SF.
Keeneland race 1... Low claiming race with a weak field. Going with horse that looks to be invest form right now with a win and second place finish in last 2 starts at Ellis Park. Horse was second longest odds onboard 5 minutes ago and now is the 2-1 favorite as I post this. Still 45 minutes to post so hoping those odds go up a little by post time
#6 So Many Dreams WPS
#6 So Many Dreams WPS
Ran second in race 1 paying $4.80/3.60 so a small profit.
race 2...#2 Ali's Birthday ran a good 5th beaten just 2 lengths 2 races back in his first start off. 2 month layoff. Hopped at the start and was squeezed in his last start at Churchill Downs. Calvin Borel, who rode this horse to a win, second and third at Oaklawn Park last year and earlier this year, gets back aboard today and blinkers are added in a well matched $40K claiming race.
#2 Ali's Birthday WPS
race 2...#2 Ali's Birthday ran a good 5th beaten just 2 lengths 2 races back in his first start off. 2 month layoff. Hopped at the start and was squeezed in his last start at Churchill Downs. Calvin Borel, who rode this horse to a win, second and third at Oaklawn Park last year and earlier this year, gets back aboard today and blinkers are added in a well matched $40K claiming race.
#2 Ali's Birthday WPS
Winner in race 3 pays $15.80/8.40/6.80
race 4..#4 Lucky Stranger drops to a $50K claimed after running exclusively in allowance and stakes races since breaking his maiden last December. Was previously trained by Tom Amoss and now joins the barn of Chris Richard, who wins at a 23% clip with new runners. Corey Lanerie picks up the mount.
#4 Lucky Stranger WPS
race 4..#4 Lucky Stranger drops to a $50K claimed after running exclusively in allowance and stakes races since breaking his maiden last December. Was previously trained by Tom Amoss and now joins the barn of Chris Richard, who wins at a 23% clip with new runners. Corey Lanerie picks up the mount.
#4 Lucky Stranger WPS
Ran 2nd in race 4 paying $3.80/3.20 for a small profit.
race 5 is a very difficult race with 12 two year old fillies going 1 1/16 on the turf. Favorite right now is 9/2 with 4 other horses at 5-1. This a race where you can use Ace strategy and put the names in a hat and pick one out. But I'll go a different route and go with #8 Calamity Jane who ran 4th beaten less than a length at Woodbine going 7 furlongs. Should be up close and in good position making the turn for home. 7-1 on the board right now.
#8 Calamity Jane WPS
race 5 is a very difficult race with 12 two year old fillies going 1 1/16 on the turf. Favorite right now is 9/2 with 4 other horses at 5-1. This a race where you can use Ace strategy and put the names in a hat and pick one out. But I'll go a different route and go with #8 Calamity Jane who ran 4th beaten less than a length at Woodbine going 7 furlongs. Should be up close and in good position making the turn for home. 7-1 on the board right now.
#8 Calamity Jane WPS
