1-0-1 Thursday
YTD 17-11-1
Week 4 since 2001
HF 62
RD 56
RF 39
HD 40
Non Divisional Home Favorites get the edge this week at 47-36 since 2001.
This week's Non Divisional Home Favorites are:
Atlanta -5' -102 (vs Hou)
Buffalo -6 +100 (vs NYG)
Cincy -3' +108 (vs KCy)
San Diego -6' -102 (vs Clev)
Denver -7 +108 (vs Minny)
New Orleans -3' +107 (vs Dal)
Seattle -10 +107 (vs Det) (Monday)
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My Picks:
Atlanta -5'
4 sacks in 3 games for JJ Watt and Javeon Clowney. 7 sacks against the Texans. This team would be 0-3 if a young Tampa team, their opponent last week, didn't shoot themselves in the foot so many, many times. Now they are going into the Georgia Dome to face a Falcons team who has been lined as dogs in all three of their games and has won all three outright. Expect that place to rock for what I expect to be a Falcon blowout.
Chicago +3' -107 (vs Oak)
Green Bay, Arizona, and Seattle. You are likely looking at the NFC Championship there. Well those are the Bears first three opponents. Now Home Dogs to Oakland? Naw. Back in their class today. Play on Home Underdogs off b to b losses of 20+ points. Since 2004 they are 17-7 ATS. 5-0 ATS if lined as +3 or +3'. (Thank you Thomas and beejmi)
more coming
YTD 17-11-1
Week 4 since 2001
HF 62
RD 56
RF 39
HD 40
Non Divisional Home Favorites get the edge this week at 47-36 since 2001.
This week's Non Divisional Home Favorites are:
Atlanta -5' -102 (vs Hou)
Buffalo -6 +100 (vs NYG)
Cincy -3' +108 (vs KCy)
San Diego -6' -102 (vs Clev)
Denver -7 +108 (vs Minny)
New Orleans -3' +107 (vs Dal)
Seattle -10 +107 (vs Det) (Monday)
///
My Picks:
Atlanta -5'
4 sacks in 3 games for JJ Watt and Javeon Clowney. 7 sacks against the Texans. This team would be 0-3 if a young Tampa team, their opponent last week, didn't shoot themselves in the foot so many, many times. Now they are going into the Georgia Dome to face a Falcons team who has been lined as dogs in all three of their games and has won all three outright. Expect that place to rock for what I expect to be a Falcon blowout.
Chicago +3' -107 (vs Oak)
Green Bay, Arizona, and Seattle. You are likely looking at the NFC Championship there. Well those are the Bears first three opponents. Now Home Dogs to Oakland? Naw. Back in their class today. Play on Home Underdogs off b to b losses of 20+ points. Since 2004 they are 17-7 ATS. 5-0 ATS if lined as +3 or +3'. (Thank you Thomas and beejmi)
more coming
Add:
Jacksonville +4 -109 (@ Indy)
Although you wouldn't know it after getting beat 17-51 by the cheating, beating Patriots last week, Jacksonville is improving. Indy is going backwards. Infighting between the coach and the GM is taking it's toll.
Jacksonville, who only won nine games over the past three years, already has a win this year. They are 6-3 ATS when on the road in the Division in those three years. Today, Indy without Luck, will be all out to wrestle with these Jaguars.
Jacksonville +4 -109 (@ Indy)
Although you wouldn't know it after getting beat 17-51 by the cheating, beating Patriots last week, Jacksonville is improving. Indy is going backwards. Infighting between the coach and the GM is taking it's toll.
Jacksonville, who only won nine games over the past three years, already has a win this year. They are 6-3 ATS when on the road in the Division in those three years. Today, Indy without Luck, will be all out to wrestle with these Jaguars.
Add:
Tampa Bay +3 +106 (vs Car)
So Carolina beat three teams who have a combined record of 2-7. Now they are road favorites? The last time Tampa was home was on opening day when they were embarrassed by Marcus Mariotta 14-42. Last week they screwed up opportunity after opportunity before succumbing in Houston. I think they finally get it together for their overrated Divisional rival today.
Tampa Bay +3 +106 (vs Car)
So Carolina beat three teams who have a combined record of 2-7. Now they are road favorites? The last time Tampa was home was on opening day when they were embarrassed by Marcus Mariotta 14-42. Last week they screwed up opportunity after opportunity before succumbing in Houston. I think they finally get it together for their overrated Divisional rival today.
Add:
NYG +6 -105 (@ Buff)
Rex Ryan is still bellyaching about the cheating, beating Patriot loss two weeks later. Er, Rex. It's about your downstate rival, the New York Giants coming to town this week. The Giants went into Dallas with a healthy Tony Romo and Dez Bryant and played 'em within one point when Eli told his RB to take a dive at the 1" line when a score would have locked that game up for the G-men. Buffalo? They beat the two phoniest teams in the NFL this year, Miami and Indy. I'll take the guys from Downstate.
NYG +6 -105 (@ Buff)
Rex Ryan is still bellyaching about the cheating, beating Patriot loss two weeks later. Er, Rex. It's about your downstate rival, the New York Giants coming to town this week. The Giants went into Dallas with a healthy Tony Romo and Dez Bryant and played 'em within one point when Eli told his RB to take a dive at the 1" line when a score would have locked that game up for the G-men. Buffalo? They beat the two phoniest teams in the NFL this year, Miami and Indy. I'll take the guys from Downstate.
Weather is nicer at Keeneland today and the track is listed as good and will probably be fast before day is done. Not a lot of time so short write ups today...
race 2...#6 Macho Brew 4-1 ML. First time on dirt, 2nd time Lasix.
race 4...#11 Farz 4-1 ML Added Lasix last start, his first in 6 months, and ran a close up 5th beaten 2 lengths. Should improve off that effort.
race 6...#8 Fruit Ludt 4-1 ML adds blinkers and cuts back from route to sprint.
Race 7...#2 Cinder 10-1 ML First time Lasix after running 7th in her first start at Saratoga last month. Bullet work at Keeneland last week.
race 8...#2 Sallisaw 8-1 ML Grade 3 Bourbon, a Win and your in race for Breeders Cup later this month. 2 year old stretching out for first time on the turf after a win in first start and a 4th in Grade 1 Hopeful, both at Saratoga. Out of a Dynaformer mare so bred for turf and the distance. This race is televised on NBC at 5:10.
Race 10...#10 Pretty Priceless 9-2 ML. First time Lasix in his 5th start.
Good old luck to everyone today...
race 2...#6 Macho Brew 4-1 ML. First time on dirt, 2nd time Lasix.
race 4...#11 Farz 4-1 ML Added Lasix last start, his first in 6 months, and ran a close up 5th beaten 2 lengths. Should improve off that effort.
race 6...#8 Fruit Ludt 4-1 ML adds blinkers and cuts back from route to sprint.
Race 7...#2 Cinder 10-1 ML First time Lasix after running 7th in her first start at Saratoga last month. Bullet work at Keeneland last week.
race 8...#2 Sallisaw 8-1 ML Grade 3 Bourbon, a Win and your in race for Breeders Cup later this month. 2 year old stretching out for first time on the turf after a win in first start and a 4th in Grade 1 Hopeful, both at Saratoga. Out of a Dynaformer mare so bred for turf and the distance. This race is televised on NBC at 5:10.
Race 10...#10 Pretty Priceless 9-2 ML. First time Lasix in his 5th start.
Good old luck to everyone today...
More Trends/Systems
ATL is 3-19 ATS at Home since 2001 when entering the game off 2+ SU Wins. ATL is also off DAL. Teams Favored after DAL are on a 2-17 ATS run. The only bothersome thing about this matchup is the BS result last time these teams met. Ryan was awful in that game and HOU (+1) was 'led' to victory 17-10 by Tyler Yates.
WASH is 2-16 ATS in Games 2-5 at Home vs their Division since 1985. Really, this line is -3+100 when it should be 7-20.
ATL is 3-19 ATS at Home since 2001 when entering the game off 2+ SU Wins. ATL is also off DAL. Teams Favored after DAL are on a 2-17 ATS run. The only bothersome thing about this matchup is the BS result last time these teams met. Ryan was awful in that game and HOU (+1) was 'led' to victory 17-10 by Tyler Yates.
WASH is 2-16 ATS in Games 2-5 at Home vs their Division since 1985. Really, this line is -3+100 when it should be 7-20.
