The ML was NEVER at +230, nor is it ever that high when the line is under 7. Not only that, but unless you wager in Vegas, you could not get a ML this early. +175 was as high as it got. It is down to +160 now. Taking Oregon and the points is stupid, and Oregon homers should know that. Oregon stinks when they lose. If they lose as dogs, they rarely cover. They have not done it in several years now. if you like Oregon, thake the points, because if they lose, it will be by 7 or more. If it is close, they will win. You may as well get the extra bucks.
If that's so then this is fucking unusual, wouldn't you say?
Current odds as of this moment from bookmaker (for the sake of example):
<small>12:30 PM</small> <table class="" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr> <td class="rotCell"> 155 </td> <td class="teamCell">GEORGIA</td> <td class="selectCell"> <label class=""> <input name="game" value="920543_2_0_6.5_-110_CFB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox"> +6½-110 </label> </td> <td class="selectCell"> <label class=""> <input name="game" value="920543_2_2_-64_-110_CFB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox"> o64-110 </label> </td> <td class="selectCell"> <label class=""> <input name="game" value="920543_2_4_0_240_CFB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox"> +240 </label> </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="rotCell"> 156 </td> <td class="teamCell">OKLAHOMA ST</td> <td class="selectCell"> <label class=""> <input name="game" value="920543_2_1_-6.5_-110_CFB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox"> -6½-110 </label> </td> <td class="selectCell"> <label class=""> <input name="game" value="920543_2_3_64_-110_CFB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox"> u64-110 </label> </td> <td class="selectCell"> <label class=""> <input name="game" value="920543_2_5_0_-290_CFB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox"> -290 </label></td></tr></tbody></table>
And no it's true that the line was never up to 7, it only got to 6. But the ML would have been closer to +230 than to +175 with where the line on the OR/BSU game is now. I think IF there had been a ML when it was at 6, the ML would have been somewhere between +220 and +230 offshore which would be proportional to +4.5 @ +175 or +6.5 @ +240. But then again, people that deal with Vegas could do a better job of line shopping as I just did with the offshore lines.
.. and by the way BDQH, if +160 is all you can find, check bookmaker. They are still +175. I should know because that's the price I just got.
I'm just fucking glad I don't buy into your word as some kind of authority who knows. Clearly (by the example) you don't. You shoot from the hip and wind up spewing a lot of BS without checking things out first. The idea that you can only get ML wagers this soon in CFB if you are in Vegas is one example of you talking trash about something you know nothing about. I could probably pull up a few more offshore books that had them posted before now but I'll let you do that, being that it is within your expertise to know all about these things... so you say.
I'm just fucking glad I don't buy into your word as some kind of authority who knows. Clearly (by the example) you don't. You shoot from the hip and wind up spewing a lot of BS without checking things out first. The idea that you can only get ML wagers this soon in CFB if you are in Vegas is one example of you talking trash about something you know nothing about. I could probably pull up a few more offshore books that had them posted before now but I'll let you do that, being that it is within your expertise to know all about these things... so you say.
hno: Anywaysssss back to capping some games here.
Well, I've seen what needed to be seen on WSU and the delay cost me a point and a half. I was thinking that there could be some hope for them to give Stanford a fight but their camp has been terrible. I'll post some articles in a bit but for now I am going to commit. Adding Stanford -16.5, 1 unit.
I am still waiting on UW line to grow so far it has added a half pt, they are having a good camp. Hoping for at least 17. Also CMU may get a small bet at 13.5, AZ camp not going as well as I would have thought either. More later.
RECAP
ORE +6, 1 unit
ORE/BSU OVER 60.5, .5 unit
Stanford -16.5, 1 unit
Stan/WSU under 56, .5 unit
I am still waiting on UW line to grow so far it has added a half pt, they are having a good camp. Hoping for at least 17. Also CMU may get a small bet at 13.5, AZ camp not going as well as I would have thought either. More later.
RECAP
ORE +6, 1 unit
ORE/BSU OVER 60.5, .5 unit
Stanford -16.5, 1 unit
Stan/WSU under 56, .5 unit
All of my picks have been accurately maintained here for the past 3 years and are easy to find given the search button. A documented history that I may add you do not have. I have NEVER stated a play in another thread other than my own in that time frame. I have speculated on the ML in this thread, which you can find by going back through the thread.
I would suggest to you that it would have been easier for you to do so than to question my integrity.
I may tail you on some of the Washington action. I have my ideas from seeing little tidbits of info pop up here and there which you have confirmed.
BTW, Oregon St. has also been having a very good camp, better than I suspected. It's very possible they may fly out of the starting gate this year and not look back. (I have a feeling that the Cincy game could get ugly.) Once again their defense seems to be coming together faster than anyone thought. Canfield has been hitting 70% of his throws consistently. Even Ryan Katz and Pete Lalich have looked good. Jovan Stevenson looks like the answer to back up RB that they've needed for a couple of years. Other than the unfortunate Cathings injury, they are pretty much in tact. Fr. WR Marcus Wheaton has been turning heads all year. Even their OL has picked it up since the arrival of Phillippppp. And Stephen Paea is probably the stongest player in all of CFB. He benches 720 lbs.
Uowe - love your PAC 10 stuff, man. Great info.
Was wondering what your rationale was on taking UW? They are currently +16.5 at Bookmaker.
They have a new HC with new coordinators (Locker is back - yes - but is this fact that big a deal?) and LSU has an unproven QB and a new O-line, but LSU also also have a great stable of ball carriers, good receivers to help QB Jefferson along, a solid d-line, and are a supposed dark-horse for the BCS.
I don't see how UW won't get pushed around without mercy. What am I missing?
BOL this year.
Was wondering what your rationale was on taking UW? They are currently +16.5 at Bookmaker.
They have a new HC with new coordinators (Locker is back - yes - but is this fact that big a deal?) and LSU has an unproven QB and a new O-line, but LSU also also have a great stable of ball carriers, good receivers to help QB Jefferson along, a solid d-line, and are a supposed dark-horse for the BCS.
I don't see how UW won't get pushed around without mercy. What am I missing?
BOL this year.
I've talked about UW and game one a lot in the P10 thread that we have which has been going since last winter. The biggest factor is the improvement being seen in Jake Locker's passing game. He is one of the few players in this conference that require specific gameplans. In the past teams could cheat up due to his innacuracies as a passer. I believe that will no longer be the case. Now, given his support skill players will be an upgrade over last yr I believe that UW will score some pts. Only real problem and it still may be in the game is the OL. It is thin and while experienced not quite up to P10 standards. I think they will wear down, the angle that I have though is that on adrenalin alone they may be able enough to make it 2/3 of the game. That means chances to cover could be good.
Now on the D side, UW has a very capable set of LB's. They can fly and hit. There is weakness at the secondary though and if LSU can exploit it that would be why I lose the bet. At DL UW will be adequate.
Now the intangible. LSU doesn't travel like this, they will most assuredly be looking at this game as a gimme. UW has lost a LOT of games in a row, the game is at home on nat. tv, the fan base is AMPED, the staff has the kids belief. On this alone I will be attracted to a first half bet.
IMO LSU wins the game but it will be a MUCH tougher fight than they will be prepared for.
Hope that helps.
This is one of your state of Washington plays that I think I'm going to tail. About the only way I see UW trailing by very much at HT is if Locker commits a bonehead blunder or 2. That won't happen. I fully expect UW to be able to answer often, at least until they fizzle out.
I agree that LSU will very likely come into this game overconfident. That seems to be a common trait that runs throughout the SEC, especially at the top (with the possible exception of Florida who never leaves the state anyway.) I think there was some mention in the article you posted about how few BCS schools their OOC schedules include, not to mention nothing but the weakest of teams in the BCS conferences they do play.
What an inglorious way to make a statement to the nation about how good you are... pick on someone who's a lot smaller or weaker than you are AND NOTHING ELSE! LSU comes into this game thinking they can bully anyone who's not SEC. FUCK THEM! I hope UW wins the game SU. (But the pups will be fortunate to win 4 games this year even if they do.) And I don't want to hear about how games are scheduled years in advance. UW has been down most of this decade and LSU knew EXACTLY what they were doing when they scheduled this game... along with all the rest of the OOC opponents they choose.
Sorry Pete, nothing personal.
bingo!
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sure lsu has speed, but locker is super mobile and if you can get a db to cheat up or have a LB/DB in spy and locker has any type of accuracy he could potentially have his team up at HT. florida crushed lsu last season and although UW is no florida, tebow and locker have the similar ability to keep the defense on their toes. something lsu defense has stuggled with in close games in the les miles era. barring turnovers and a defensive meltdown, UW should at a minimum keep it close
bingo!
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sure lsu has speed, but locker is super mobile and if you can get a db to cheat up or have a LB/DB in spy and locker has any type of accuracy he could potentially have his team up at HT. florida crushed lsu last season and although UW is no florida, tebow and locker have the similar ability to keep the defense on their toes. something lsu defense has stuggled with in close games in the les miles era. barring turnovers and a defensive meltdown, UW should at a minimum keep it close
Now that is a very interesting angle. A lot of people think of Washington going 0-12 LY but I don't think many realize that Locker was lost for the year very early. He was the heart and soul of that team... (which is unfortunate, but HC Willingham lost their respect too)
I bet not many people know this but Ty Willingham was the president of the American College Football Coaches Assoc. last year. That's pretty wierd.
Too much love for the Huskies here. Locker is a stud, I'm very high on him, but we're talking about a bottom dwelling Pac 10 program going against a top SEC program. I don't think that has been really emphasized enough. Washington cannot recruit at the level LSU does and the SEC speed will prevent them from doing a whole lot. There is a big difference between the level of athlete's and programs competing.
Oregon gashed UW for 256 yards in their opener last year. LSU ran for 266 in their opening against giant killer Appalachian St. How will Washington be able to slow down LSU's run game? How will Washington score?
And the game will be televised on ESPN. I don't see LSU coming out slow and rusty on national TV, especially after their disappointing 5 losses last year.
Oregon gashed UW for 256 yards in their opener last year. LSU ran for 266 in their opening against giant killer Appalachian St. How will Washington be able to slow down LSU's run game? How will Washington score?
And the game will be televised on ESPN. I don't see LSU coming out slow and rusty on national TV, especially after their disappointing 5 losses last year.
not to mention that UW probably picks up a win against no 15 BYU if locker doesnt toss the ball up in the air after a late TD.
sarkisian has coached some great offensive players, and learned offense gameplanning from norm chow. he knows how to let athletes exibit their talent and i expect no less in regards to locker. UW does have some speed available on its bench and if in a hole i expect them to use it even though the guys are young
